December 22, 2006

When people all try to get out at the same time, sometimes things go awry



42 comments:

Anonymous said...

FIRST!!

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Let’s see who dumps the US Dollar first, starts the music and the stampede.

borkafatty said...

THIS IS CLASSIC:

Has Housing Bottomed In the US? Data and Fifth Grade Math Says NO

http://tinyurl.com/twcfc

Anonymous said...

Think that will be the understatement of the millenium once we move from the current prelude of bubble deflation phase to the full blown bubble burst that will hit in the spring.

christiangustafson said...

Great post, Keith!

This is what sets you apart from the bubble blogging herd!

Huzzah! Huzzah!

Anonymous said...

Excellent montage Keith. Anyone remember this one?

http://tinyurl.com/y8bfo9

It's only going to get worse from here I'm afraid.

Anonymous said...

Classic supply and demand at work.
Lets say I have a stock tip and I tell someone.
He goes and buys it. Now I dont shut up right there. I keep on yakking and telling millions to buy (sound familiar - Charlatan Cheats, Robbing Alien who ever)
Everyone buys and it drives up the price. OK self fulfiling prophecy, and the first guys can make like bandits selling to the next million or so ... till it now has gotten too high ... and I am out of Idiots to talk into about buying. Boom the market is super high and no one is left ... and the millions that bought ... screw them, I am the guru, I am going to sell vitamins. After all the sheeple have to eat.
And finally Housing is worse than stock. You have stock that is bought with cash you have ... housing is bought all on leverage. Its costs you every minute and it costs you to sell, and it costs you in property taxes utilities and it just will suck you dry if you're not living in it. Not just opportunity cost of the money being tied up. Then when you walk away, the loss is eaten by the bank, you get dinged with the loan forgiveness which the govt hits you as if it was a capital gains income. We aren't even at the tip of the iceberg. The iceberg is straight ahead and we are stuck at full speed, and we dont have a rudder. But we haven't even touched it ...
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

Anonymous said...

That was Clinton's problem (or at least one of them). So many women running in and out of oval office your eventually gonna trip over one!

Anonymous said...

The photo at the top looks like the exits anywhere Rosie O'donnell shows up at....especially a all-you-can-eat buffet

Anonymous said...

HHEEEEYYY WHOOAAAA!!!!

The photo at the top looks like the exits anywhere Rosie O'donnell shows up at....especially a all-you-can-eat buffet

Anonymous said...

Fast forward two years from now:

Anyone who bought homes in 2004 will have lost 300k, with the constant news stories beating them over the head, reminding them of their purchases at the height of the bubble, decide to hand the keys back to the banks in droves knowing their "investment" will never recover in price to what they paid. Because now incomes must fit house prices by no more than 2x salary.

joey said...

My 2007 predictions.

-The dollar will not be a big story and china is not going to dump our dollars. Its a pretty theory but it ain't happening. I consider myself a bit of a gold bug myself and long term its as good a bet as any. If the dollar goes down china's "portfolio" goes down. If they sell the dollar its choas. They will take a loss over chaos.It AIN'T GONNA HAPPEN. Nobody wins with a dollar crash.

-Housing will slow more but the downturn won't be fast enough to cause a recession(except a few notable areas). IT will hurt but not as much as some believe.
Many folks who bought can afford the payments, we tend to overexagerate thewhole "underwater" thing.

-Oil will be a story again. We've been lucky since Katrina with warm weather and no crazy mideast stuff. But odds something will happen. Heck maybe a bad cold snap will jump start things. IF I had to choose a wildcard that would be it.

-Little will change in Iraq. Bush is delusional and won't do much. This is very very sad to think about.

-Consumers will buy less but only little by little. Buying crap is the number one pastime and nobody is giving it up anytime soon.
Usually a recession starts AFTER consumers tire. But now it has to be the other way for the masses to stop charging crap at walmart. It's a like a drug you have to physically remove(the credit and ability to service the debt).

-Beyond 2007 it aint pretty for the USA but 2007 won't be "the Year" everything collapses. Hey, it still give's people like us a chance to buy metals, pay down debt etc.

-My 2007 predictions will be wrong and the dow will hit 15000. In tat case I should do the George Constanza "opposite theory"

Have a nice xmas

Anonymous said...

joey is a troll realtor asshole

joey said...

to anonymous

Give me a break. I have nothing to do with real estate and don't even own a home due to this bubble. I didn't even say anything positive about real estate or the US economy. Chill out and stop being an ass. YOu don't know squat like the rest of us.

Anonymous said...

Joey's scenario seems reasonable to me (maybe somewhat optimistic, though)

Anonymous said...

You mean paranoid white, middle aged, fat, bald men who think nazi web sites like Hal Turner and rense.com speak the truth? Hal Turner and rense.com is quoted all over the place here.

"the rest of us" who listen to talk radio like Michael Savage and G. Gordon Liddy. Shows that tell you the brown man (Arab and/or Latino) is going to kill you and fuck your blonde sister? And in between such crap sell you weight loss pills and subscriptions to gold newsletters?

That "rest of us"?

-----------

I know Rush that fatass limbaugh, is one hell of a model citizen and a stand up american...that is where i get my news from...sales slow today in california.

Anonymous said...

Just Virgil GOODE's comments about the Koran swear in, discussed on MSNBC...the journalist from Washpost called Goode a 'LOONEY'. They discused all the outrage. The only outrage is that the MEDIA is so biased and anti-american that they don't even realize that 90% of americans agree with GOODE. Our nation is founded on Judeo-Christian beliefs that are found in the BIBLE....NOT THE Koran. Do you liberals in the media want NYC to be the next LONDONSTAN... call it NEW YORKISTAN. Keith, how is LONDONSTAN?

Anonymous said...

Oh and did the war on Christmas escalate some more today? Which store did Bill O'Reilly tell you toboycott today because they say Happy Holidays instead of Merry Chrtismas?

Target? Macy's? Best Buy? Kohl's? The list changes so often I can't keep up with it.

Anonymous said...

Wrong.

Our nation is founded on deist anti-clerical (i.e. anti-church) Enlightenment-era beliefs which are founded in Scottish, English and Continental philosophy of the late 17th and 18th century.

What does the US Constitution, the thing that you are swearing allegiance to, say?

The Senators and Representatives before mentioned, and the Members of the several State Legislatures, and all executive and judicial Officers, both of the United States and of the several States, shall be bound by Oath or Affirmation, to support this Constitution; but no religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States.

The Constitution itself is explicit when it comes to religion: STFU.

If TheAmurricanPeople demand that he swear on a bible and not koran, they are Unconstitutional ignoramuses.

Anonymous said...

great pictures!!! You should take your camera and go to one of those neighborhoods that have 20 open houses and arrows pointing every which direction.

Whole builder tracts butting up against each other are like that too.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

joey,
The Trade Agreement with the US and China expires at the end of Dec. 06.
Frees up the friendly import tax environment the US importers have had with China manufactured goods.
The Dem's want to tax China's imports at 27% as punishment for keeping the Yen artifically low against the USD.
Then the SHTF.
It is a little more complicated the USD will or won't crash.
There is an international chess game going on now between Saudi, US and China. Who will Blink first? No one knows.
Don’t you guys get it????

Anonymous said...

I agree with flyingmonkeywarrior. China has had too easy of access to U.S. markets. China needs to keep its factories working. First they need oil and second they need U.S. consumers with no U.S. goods tax. They will get oil because they will pay any price. This makes the Saudis happy but not the U.S. If the U.S. puts a goods tax on Chineses goods and/or the U.S. consumer stops buying Chinese goods, China will be in a tough position. They may be forced to sell U.S. Treasuries if they don't like the dollar falling which could send U.S. interest rates soring, which would further hurt the U.S. economy and the dollar.

The Chinese always say they have faith in the American consumer!!! I am not sure I do. Especially if Americans wake up and realize will are self destructing with our over consumption.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...
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FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...
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FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Right, anon.

But the Saudi’s told China if they Dump the 1 trillion in USD holdings, in retaliation for the US Import tax increase by (Dem) congress, (which is a prediction, has not happened yet, but the stage is set as of Jan 1, 07),

THEN.


Saudi cuts of their Oil Supply to China. Ergo, Embargo.

That is the Saudi threat, anyway.

China is snuggly with Iran and Germany and Even Castro let the Chinese drill for oil off shore in the Gulf, 25 miles from Key West.

Next, Saudi will be pulling in a favor from the beholden US, in the form of "Please don't leave us with out your military presence in the Middle East.

Get it?

Thanks for the agreement, anon.
Whew, there are some stoopid people posting here.

Anonymous said...

Do you guys stay up late into the night thinking about these consipracies or do they just kinda pop into your minds randomly?

------------------------
"Saudi cuts of their Oil Supply to China. Ergo, Embargo.That is the Saudi threat, anyway.

China is snuggly with Iran and Germany and Even Castro let the Chinese drill for oil off shore in the Gulf, 25 miles from Key West.

Next, Saudi will be pulling in a favor from the beholden US, in the form of "Please don't leave us with out your military presence in the Middle East."

Anonymous said...

Cuba left Iran drill 25 miles off the coast of Key West?

Any source on that?

And by source I meant CNN, AP, Reuters, AlJazeera, not www.rense.com, wnd.com or Hal Turner

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

No, it is called research and connecting the dots.
Believe it or not.
Anyway, we have the front row seat here at HP.
Time will tell if I am on crack or just real anthropologist.
Now we watch and wait.
Y2K never happened and I have been wrong before. No ego or emo here, just a lot of reading, oh, and I do business Internationally.
We shall see soon enough.
iw

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...
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FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...
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FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Cuba left Iran drill 25 miles off the coast of Key West?
_______________
No, Castro leased the Oil Drilling rights to China, 25 miles off of the Key West coast, in the Gulf Of Mex.

My sources:

A contact inside the Florida Government and the Orlando Sentinel, additionally, Rense.com posted the Orlando Sentinel article (fyi), which was buried on the third page of the news paper.

Both the Gov. friend and the Orlando local paper are MSM and "credible".

And you’re an Idiot. My source? HP

BubbleShanker said...

Just wait until this spring, when all the idiots put their houses back on the market that did not sell in the past year. Pain!

Anonymous said...

Yeah that is credible indeed. A source inside the government.....It's truly amazing how idiotic you are...well you are nazis so what can I expecy?

"My sources: A contact inside the Florida Government and rense.com"

Anonymous said...

"Y2K never happened"

And let me guess you still have 1000 batteries you stocked up on.

Anonymous said...

yah 20 million people cleaning toilets and picking fruit...you are right, they need to be stopped!!!

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

gtg now.

stuckintheshity said...

I got stuck in Chicago at the corner of North Av and Clybourn. There I realised I'd be fvcked if something disasterous happened.

Too many damn people. Too many damn condos.

stuckintheshity said...

U are wrong.

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joey said...
My 2007 predictions.

-The dollar will not be a big story and china is not going to dump our dollars.

**** China is worried bec the USD is losing value on it's own. Int rates are being held down to keep the housing bubble going and the ARMs at bay. That is causing the USD to lose against the Euro. Intrest rates will have to be risen to float the USD. That will cause the end of the RE bubble.



-Housing will slow more but the downturn won't be fast enough to cause a recession(except a few notable areas).

****** See above.



-Consumers will buy less but only little by little.

**** Wrong. consumers will buy ALOT less if their ARMs jump.

Anonymous said...

19-Dec-06 TOLL BRUCE E
Director 500,000 Indirect Sale at $31.62 per share. $15,810,000

Anonymous said...

north/clyborn,
your right, there is no hope of an orderly and timely evac. of chicago. density of population way too high.....instant gridlock. someone once said that every major city is just 3 days away from anarchy. if you keep 3 wks supplies you will have a better chance than most of being around when govt. assistance finally shows up. assuming ,of course, you survive the main event.

joey said...

Yeah yeah i've been hearing gloom and doom for 3 years now. This year it will be the 4th. It will be suprising uneventful.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

http://roccland.blogspot.com/
Warning;
Only the enlightned or those thirsty and open will like it here.
Richard Dick to Many has new blog.
just saying.