A reminder of how it's going to play out for any idiot calling bottom in the housing market today

December 13, 2006

A reminder of how it's going to play out for any idiot calling bottom in the housing market today

24 comments:

Anonymous said...: .; December 13, 2006 9:31 PM
Anonymous said...: We're still in DENIAL for the most part, just moving to FEAR. Long way to go!; December 13, 2006 9:32 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith thanks for reposting this very important graph..Last time I printd it out and have a copy on my desk. I have been an avid reader of housing panic since the first week you started..I use this graph now to gauge where we are in the gold and silver cycle. Id say we are at optimism in the gold cycle.

Also as far as housing goes here in South Florida its on the verge of fear(very quickly I imagine its going to be desperation)..Everyone is still so in denial..I went to a cocktail party last week and almost had my head chopped off suggesting that prices will revert back to 01/02 levels..A good 50 percent decline. "not here" this is the bottom most exclaimed..I quickly changed the topic of conversation.

Keep up the good work! Dont forget to mention Silver now and again as it should go from optimism to thrill rather quickly.

Genx; December 13, 2006 9:32 PM
Anonymous said...: Big fan of the blog Keith even though I don't agree with everything you say. Don't you find it ironic that you have OptionOne advertising plastered throughout your website?

I find this hypocritical since these mortgages are the most toxic of the toxic. I know Google Adsense places random ads but you can also adjust the criteria of ads that you show. Just a suggestion.; December 13, 2006 9:34 PM
Roccman said...: despair; December 13, 2006 9:49 PM
Anonymous said...: still in denial in norhtern va.; December 13, 2006 9:50 PM
Anonymous said...: Yes- Silver will go to the moon!

Buy SLV and these two mining co's
HL and CDE - they're going to rocket in Q1 '07; December 13, 2006 9:51 PM
Anonymous said...: Shouldn't denial come before anxiety? I had a toxic loan and I was fortunate to get out of it and pay the freaking prepayment penalty. I was in denial that prices in Los Angeles would go down until I tried to sell. Then the anxiety set in. Ouch! Major discomfort! Sleepless nights! Anger at family and dogs! etc etc etc..; December 13, 2006 9:51 PM
Anonymous said...: Just had a fight with my sister over the weekend. She wants to buy a condo in Portland and yelled at me when I suggested that buying in a "falling-knife" market is not a good idea. She is so TOTALLY in denial about the housing market, the economy, the falling dollar, etc. I'm thinking she's like most of the rest of Americans this Holiday Season; still living on the glory of America's past....; December 13, 2006 9:59 PM
The Thinker said...: This chart is obviously an over simplification, but it makes an excellent point and is still very useful for putting things in perspective. On this chart, I would say that the cumulative sentiment of society is at the anxiety/denial/fear stage. I would say that the MSM is a little closer to fear while most home owners are a little closer to anxiety.

Remember, this isnt stocks, its houses. If people could sell a house with the click of a button and an $8 commission we would have hit bottom long ago. Because it takes 8 months to move a home in a down market momentum builds slow.

Meanwhile, there is no ticker-tape for housing. If CNBC says your $200 stock is worth $10, denial wont last longer than a few minutes. If a prospective buyer offers a would-be seller $300,000 on the house he is asking $455,000 for denial may take over a year of not having a sale before the would-be seller starts to rethink things.

You can think of this whole housing burst as if it were one big dance party vampire rave. You've got all the sellers with their arms in the air shouting "whoot whoot" and dancing away oblivious to the fact that on the other side of the room, Wesley Snipes is picking off vampires left and right. Eventually a critical mass of vampires will wise up to the carnage and panic will follow, but in the mean time, its "through your hands in the air, and wave them like you just don't care!"

-Thinker; December 13, 2006 10:07 PM
Anonymous said...: Currently we are just past denial, Fear will come when the spring buying season arrives and no buyers show up, and the fed still won't be close to cutting rates. Desparation will come at the end of summer when theres no more spin left and every idiot stops talking about real estate because they don't want to let their friends know how much they've lost.; December 13, 2006 10:14 PM
Out at the peak said...: My dad wanted to help buy my sister a house recently. She makes $31K in Sonoma County, CA. I showed him the math. There is no way that is going to happen.; December 13, 2006 10:26 PM
Anonymous said...: Is your sister hot?

If she was, she could get some metrosexual, feminized, castrated male to buy her a house and then divorce the limp noodle.

If she's not, then she'll have to felate ex-cons at the bus station to get extra money for food after she makes the mortgage payments.; December 13, 2006 11:10 PM
Anonymous said...: Denial going toward "edginess" and bordering fear.

The Mexican Standoff; December 13, 2006 11:10 PM
Anonymous said...: To the Person in whose sister wants a Portland condo:

Portlanders are largely convinced that the 100% increase in home prices in 5 years is totally warranted and they have nowhere to go but up. Urban condos are being built like there's no tomorrow and lots of apartments are being converted to condos.

One wonders who is buying them.; December 14, 2006 12:12 AM
Rob Dawg said...: Not everybody is at the same point. We out in front are seeing the first signs of fear but there are millions that aren't smart enough to see the denial yet.

Portland will be a unique and spectacular victim of the coming events. For decades it has sucked up huge portions of US transportation funding in its dooomed trolley folley. That money has dried up and they are left holding two bags not just one.; December 14, 2006 12:36 AM
Markus Arelius said...: In Southern California (Orange County), I'm pleased to report that we are still hovering around the anxiety-desperation stage.

Plenty of exhilaration ahead, I'm afraid.

OC home prices still up over last year, but now the rate of change is less than 1%. The peak may have been hit? http://blogs.ocregister.com/lansner/; December 14, 2006 1:10 AM
Anonymous said...: still living on the glory of America's past....
--------------------------------

I like that statement, this is why I wont be buying for a very long time. I dont think america has an economy left in her to support a 30yr mortgage, or even a 10yr mortgage. I'll be renting untill the house payment is cheaper than rent.; December 14, 2006 1:27 AM
Anonymous said...: Deep denial in NYC. News today that we will need 265,000 new units to accomodate an influx of new residents over what Mayor Bloomberg is predicting will be the next 25 years. Unfortunately there is no way that all of the new residents will be millionaires, but every new unit on the market is being marketed to the "Luxury" set.

FYI - Realtors are getting word out to the papers that Wall Street bonuses have started to dry up the inventory flood. BS!; December 14, 2006 1:42 AM
Anonymous said...: San Diego north county inland:

Still lots of denial!; December 14, 2006 3:03 AM
Anonymous said...: .....but something is lurking in the backround!; December 14, 2006 3:04 AM
Paige Turner said...: "A reminder of how it's going to play out for any idiot calling bottom in the housing market today"

Anyone who says that the housing market has already bottomed out, is a very poor judge of distance.; December 14, 2006 4:37 AM
Anonymous said...: Salt Lake Mortgage Guy vs. Mish

Round 1; December 14, 2006 7:12 AM
Bill said...: Yes- Silver will go to the moon!

Buy SLV and these two mining co's
HL and CDE - they're going to rocket in Q1 '07

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Yes it will!! and i am on the SS-Poundage! The thing with silver tho is you are better of holding Physical than Paper..my 2 cents; December 14, 2006 2:17 PM