December 08, 2006

Oh, man, that's gotta suck. Paid $874,890 in November 2005. House now worth $639,990 a year later. Ouch.


Just one act of financial stupidity, after a lifetime of saving, working, planning. Just one act, listening to a realtor on commission and buying at the peak last year, and bam! it's all over.

Here's a good article about the price devastation, and also that county tax assessors are discounting the value of the home by the amount of incentives given. Imagine that - someone out there is trying to accurately record a home's value (unlike the NAR, unlike the US government reports, unlike the MSM)

Albert Quintero's timing couldn't have been worse. He made a deal to buy a new Turlock luxury home in November 2005, at the real estate market's peak.

By the time construction ended in July, Quintero's Milestone Way home wasn't worth the $874,890 he was contractually obligated to pay. Now the same model — a new home on nearby Tapestry Way — is priced at $639,990.

"It's really tough to swallow that we paid 37 percent more than what our home is worth now," Quintero said. "We got caught."

He wasn't the only homeowner burned by buying at the top of the market. Potentially, thousands of Northern San Joaquin Valley homes bought within the past 18 months may be worth less than their purchase price, according to county assessors.

Some builders have been offering new cars, fancy vacations or other goodies as incentives.
"You don't want to be paying property taxes for the Mexican cruise that was included with the home, and we don't want you to, either," Harms said.

So county assessors must subtract the cost of such incentives from the purchase price before establishing the assessed value of the real estate.

"There are so many deals going on that we're asking more questions about what's included in the price," Harms said. "If personal property was included — like refrigerators, drapes or furniture — or services like free cable TV for a year, then we absolutely need to know those things."

48 comments:

Anonymous said...

The House is on "Milestone Way?" Maybe they should rename it Mill Stone Way.

Anonymous said...

Ha! What you chumps don't know is that I got $200k cash back at closing. I buried it in my mother's back yard in mason jars. See you chumps in the bread line!

Anonymous said...

What I dont get is ... why did he close on the house. He never went back in there to see what they are selling them for ??? This is one for being stupid even if you count the abnormal level of stupidity of someone buying that house right now for the 600K+ ... this guy was stupider on top of that. Like a stupid cake with extra stupid topping.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

Anonymous said...

Ben's blog had a story about an all-in-one guy (realtor, mortgage broker, etc) sitting behind a card table at flea markets in CA. The guy promised the moon, from help selling an existing home, a minimal mortgage monthly payment increase, etc. Turns out he's not even a licensed realtor. Yet two years later, he's still behind a card table at flea markets...

Anonymous said...

(Anon wrote): "What I dont get is ... why did he close on the house. He never went back in there to see what they are selling them for ???"

(Butch reply): What you are pointing out via your very astute question is that people are so brainwashed that "that real estate only goes up" that it probably, literally, never occured to the poor schmoe to actually check the price. It was outside of his paradigm the the price could actually drop.

This very mindset is what will make this bubble bust a long, drawn-out affair lasting at least five years or more as the sheeple sloooooooowly come around to the facts that real estate CAN go down in price, real estate CAN stay down in price, and lenders WILL someday refuse to give every breathing heathen a no-doc, ARM, Neg. Am, I?o loan!!!

Anonymous said...

What a f@ucking stupid @ss. The guy is screwed, might as well kill himself now and get it over with.

Anonymous said...

Casey serin is now also being tracked by the FBI. His car has been bugged and a gps tracker attached to it to track his every move.

The Thinker said...

Here in the New York metro area, prices remain exorbitantly high. Most sellers of existing homes seem to be choosing to take their house off the market and bring it back as a new listing for the exact same price. Inventory is very high and buyer interest is low. Asking prices are laughable and would-be buyers are laughing, however, would-be sellers are, for the most part, "staying the course."

Perhaps would-be sellers are a little more willing to haggle at this point, but the bottom line is, if you buy a house here and now, you will still be paying top-dollar.

I have been in the market for a new home for over 2 years now but I still cannot find a reasonable home for a reasonable price.

Anonymous said...

[i]Ha! What you chumps don't know is that I got $200k cash back at closing. I buried it in my mother's back yard in mason jars. See you chumps in the bread line![i]

I hope you buried the mason jars deep in a well-marked place. It'll be a while before you get out of the federal pen for mortgage fraud. (Once the blame-games and perp-walks start, they tend to snowball. Just ask Martha Stewart and Ken Lay)

Anonymous said...

keith,,

this is just another anecdotal story about 1 guys house, bought at peak of market,, in a super ifnflated overpriced area to begin with..

it really does suck as you say , for this individual,, but doesnt reflect the averages nationally,, in fact most areas medians are actually UP yes UP according to recent housing numbers... to be credible you cant just focus on one house,, if that was the case we could just pull up an anecdotal example of say some 900,000 dolar house in Aspen bought at the same time thats now 1,250,000 (most dont have mortgages in aspen and arent squeezed)

but the Aspen story would be just as irrelevant... lets look at numbers nationally instead 140 plus areas gained in value 40 or so declined

so the TRUE story is a bubble in SOME areas,, others just fine...

Anonymous said...

Since he's now carrying one hung around his neck, change the street name to Millstone Way.

Smart Grid blogger said...

THANKS this blog for educating buyers-to-be in this Housing Price Bubble era !!!

Thanks to the Internet !!!

Anonymous said...

see this:

http://tinyurl.com/vjjor

Anonymous said...

"We don't see a mass dropping of home values like we did back in the early '90s..."

...and as I recall they didn't see that one coming either.

Anonymous said...

People are addicted to two rare earth elements (both discovered by me in 2003): Absurdium (Abd), and Gullibillium (Glb). The toxicity of one of those elements alone is damaging to the brain. Consuming both has irreversible consequences.

It turns out that those two elements are mysteriously found in drinking water all around the country. My research indicates this might be a global phenomenon. I'll keep you posted with updates.

thank you.

Anonymous said...

This very mindset is what will make this bubble bust a long, drawn-out affair lasting at least five years or more as the sheeple sloooooooowly come around to the facts that real estate CAN go down in price, real estate CAN stay down in price, and lenders WILL someday refuse to give every breathing heathen a no-doc, ARM, Neg. Am, I?o loan!!!

Friday, December 08, 2006 2:42:08 PM
-------------------

Sure, in a good/ normal market, one would expect to gain 4-6% on real estate a year. This is essentially keeping up with inflation. The same house is worth the same dollar that it was bought at years back. It's the dollar getting worse, NOT the property getting better. But no one wants to pay attention to that.

Unless, some major positive work was done on the property to increase it's real value, the price will remain constant, based on inflation. Adding a bed room, finishing the basement, or adding a full bathroom will increase it's real value.

Nevertheless, property is a DEPRECIATING ASSET! everytime you redo the hardwood, or put in new carpeting, or the hotwater heater goes, you have to spend money on the property, thus reducing the eventual return on the 'investment'. No one wants to pay attention to that either.

Yes, normally, real estate does not "go down" for no reason. But, if all of a sudden the price for that same ranch down the block that hasn't seen work done to it for the last 30 years starts going up beyond normal conditions (4-6%) and sees ABnormal gains of 10,20,60% a smart man will know what is occurring.

That home is no longer a home. It is now a COMMODITY. And yes, sorry COMMODITIES can go down.

Anonymous said...

yes youre right, but youre missing something here, they can go DOWN and they can go UP,it cuts both ways

when supply was incresing nationwide, and demand decresing for new purchases, and builders were overbuilding cause they were so bearish, and the 10 yr note yield was going up this lead housing to soften

Now, my friend if you look at NOW, not last summer,
all of these factors are not deteriorating, in fact may be reversing-- supply decreasing , new mortgage apps at seventh month high,

10 yr note yield down almost 100bps,

(im not tlking one house in phoenix, or just az or ca, the crazy markets to begin with- the country is bigger then that)

and builders have been bearish and cutting back on new projects (supply)

so it works both ways- I dont "ROOT" for housing to crash, just look at supply and demand, and now it looks like more bottoming then some huge decline from here, nationally id bet that NATIONAL median priec will be the same or higher, not lower at all a year from now, and another way to look at it is I predict more individual areas of the country will be up in value then down- thje ones that are down will likely be the ones people generalize about here (CA AZ NZ etc) but this is not the nationwide picture...

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
What I dont get is ... why did he close on the house. He never went back in there to see what they are selling them for ???
--------------------------

Same thing in Chicago. Back in March, me and the wife looked at a VERY nice townhome at Lawrence / Cicero actually in the City. 3 bd/ 3 bath/ 2 car gar/ 2,200' etc. They were throwing in the stainless and top cabinets and the window dressing. It was sooooo nice.

We talked them down to $396,000 from $427,000 without even trying. They were in phase 2 and were trying to get teh hell out. Phase 1 units went in the $440,000 range!

We wrote out a budget and begrudgingly passed on it. The budget was just too razor thin. Thank the maker we did not do it because little did we know that in Chicago property taxes on new construction was based on the sales price! That would have broke the budget and sent us into foreclosure.

Everyday I'd drive past it and shake my fist in the air. Everyday that was until, I decided to look up the sales transactions. Some jerk bought it for the asking price of $427,000!!!!! AAAAHAHAHHA He must have not even TRIED to bargin! Ugh. Some people. Atleast it aint me.

Anonymous said...

most areas medians are actually UP yes UP according to recent housing numbers...
------------------

ya, there are still some idiots.

Anonymous said...

so the TRUE story is a bubble in SOME areas,, others just fine...
---------------------

Condo sales in Chicago (supposedly a non-bubble) are down 35% this Q. I wonder why.......

Anonymous said...

Well I sold a house in July of 2006 for 325K if the idiots went to the builder he had it for 255K, their loss my gain.
HAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Anonymous said...

But I thought Suzanne researched it..

Anonymous said...

chicago condo sales "condos down 35% this qtr"

well , that may be true, but overall suppl in chicago has been going down, and median price pretty flat,,and new mortgage purchase applications a seven month high!!!!

the world is not ending in chicago, dont worry, even if you wish for it to be so..

Anonymous said...

MOst areas are up in median price "yes there are still some idiots"


whos the idiots,, 140 plus areas gained in value while about 40 declined.. thats a FACT.. I like to talk numbers not wishes, and thats not idiotic -google the oct numbers then well talk...

also new mortgage purchase apps at seven month high.. google the num,bers

the fact is SOME areas went down, MORE went up nationwide as to median price, the natl median was 3.5% down as a whole..

please show me that I pulled up a typo

and homebuilders index up al;most 30% last 3 months, well this in the face of uninformed retail BEARISH SELLERS like you, a smaller number of bigger institutiojns have been BUYING to fade you and set up for the recovery thats already started OVERALL (NOT your neighborsa overpriced house in Phoenix the country is bigger then this)

Thoser who talk current suply demand figures are idiots, and those who genrealize by anecdotes in CA or AZ are smart and forward looking,,, thats not the way the maket works

the sell housing nationwide paly is sooooooo last year, and it is exactly the height of bearishness now on every blog and magazine cover while mortgage apps at six month high and supply decreasing overall.. just a bottoming pattern thats the opposite of the overbullishness beforet the intenet collapse

THere are PLENTY of areas that will be flat to higher in a year form now, you cant see it cause you focus on the same florida, ca or phoenix properties, its tunnel vision and bias, thats why the smart money gets richer, and the retail gets nowhere ( and those foolish phoenix option arms investors with no money or experience were just as RETAIL as you guys are, both in the same pot)...

no hard feelings , but the one way rah rah crowd here is like most rah rah crowds, narrowly focused and overall wrong..

Anonymous said...

new mortgage apps at seventh month high,
------------

source pls.

Paul E. Math said...

Seriously, all you anons, please just put in a name so that other posters can respons specifically to your post. Don't use your real name - be creative, make something up. I keep waiting for someone to call themself Ryan Ginger or Gin N. Tonic or Justin Thyme. Go ahead, you can use these names for free.

To the housing bull anon who says things aren't that bad - how do you feel about all those foreclosures? Nationwide, the foreclosure rate is pretty high. How do you feel about price to average income and price to average rents - these are also really high across the country. How do you feel about persistent inflation and the twin deficits?

We have reason for believing what we believe - it's not like we haven't done any analysis here.

Yes, this thread is about one guy who was burned and you're right, it's anecdotal. What counts is good empirical data - this blog has plenty of threads that focus on the data put out by Moody's economy.com as well as Karl Case and Robert Shiller - I suppose you think those guys are just part of the rah rah crowd too?

Bill said...

But Keith It's Different this time:

http://tinyurl.com/yyupn8

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
chicago condo sales "condos down 35% this qtr"

well , that may be true, but overall suppl in chicago has been going down,

***** Quick scan of Realtor.com for condos in Chicago gives me 1,882 PAGES. At 10 a page, that's nearly 20,000 units for sale! Seems like quite the supply. And I'm sure Realtor.com is not all inclusive. Conversly, NY only has 35 pages. Phoenix has 174 pages. LA has 225. SF has 86. Only Miaimi has more but not even 100 more than Chicago!

Supply is still high. They are still building at Roosevelt / Halsted, Northwest Hwy, South Loop. Touhy/Cicero is still unsold. New condo converstions all over Rogers Pk. New condo bldg at Kenneth and Sunnyside has had "Only 3 left" for the last 6 mo. Sorry, you are wrong. Supply is still going up and will not even peak next year.

and median price pretty flat,

**** Cause sales are WAAAAY down, no movement.

the world is not ending in chicago, dont worry, even if you wish for it to be so..

***** I don't wish for the sky to fall, just be able to afford a nice house in a nice neighborhood without breaking the bank. And I'm not the only one.

Anonymous said...

the above is mine. new tag

Anonymous said...

mortgage applications for new purchases at 7 month high--

"source please" -

morgage bankers association is source -- and NO NO NO its not biased just an index , covers about 50% of the loans in the country.. was just as quick to show loan apps slow down earlier in the year...

NO one credible is arguing with the souce, its well known news,,, but not HERE, cause many have tunnel vision and dont want to see FACTS...

Anonymous said...

"pages and pages of chicago listings"


yes thats true, but anecdotal,, I prefer to focus on facts (NO BIAS as opposed to many here, not neccesarily you )

the FACT is that supply has been consistently decreasing week by week in chicago, I could look up the numbers if need be,, so this doesnt lead one to reasonably think that housing prices will fall off the cliff,, they actually may be HIGHER in a year, really, the market goes both ways..

The market decides price not us,, and if people were all desperate to sell 30% lower, they would not take off market,, would want to get out now...you gotta have people wanting to sell to you at much cheaper then now,, not gonna prob happen im afraid

and remember , chicago buyers for the most part were not like arizona flippers with no money buying a home,, most can afford their mortgage just fine

good luck finding that house,, but dont assume the market goes one way , either UP,, or down further in this case...

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
mortgage applications for new purchases at 7 month high--

"source please" -

morgage bankers association is source -- and NO NO NO its not biased just an index , covers about 50% of the loans in the country.. was just as quick to show loan apps slow down earlier in the year...
------------

link pls

Anonymous said...

the FACT is that supply has been consistently decreasing week by week in chicago, I could look up the numbers if need be,,
-------------

Yes, I think you should.

Crain's has Chicago condo sales DOWN 35%. I have EYES that see the projects still under way all over the city.

So correct my math.

(1) sales down + (1) more condos still being built = (2) supply INCREASING.

Anonymous said...

The ONLY reason you see lying UP prices in some area is because they are using MEDIAN prices which skew prices up in a down market due to the very expensive houses still moving.

Anonymous said...

not talking condo sales

but overall supply on the market, sfh and condos'

thanks

Anonymous said...

How is Raatytrac as a source?

Chicago lists *21,556* forclosures.

Detroit 13,260

Miami 12,270

Las Vegas 10,257

Denver 10,083

Phoenix 5,092

Atlanta 6,739

San Diego 3,755

New York 1,433

SF 601

Boston 555
----------------------

I live in Chicago. I know it's f-ed up here. And I know bad news escapes easier from North Korea, than this Communist country, but DAMN! Chi-Town leading the way in foreclosures???

Anonymous said...

that's www. realtytrac.com

sorry

Borax said...

Well,

It's not as bad as it seems for Mr. Quintero makes it out to be. He has an option ARM for $800,000 with a 1.25% rate, an APR of 4.95 and a fully indexed rate of 5.75. So really, he's only paying $833.33 per months.

Not bad on a big ole spread like that? Who cares about the $2,466 a month in negative am? Who loses sleep over the fully indexed payment of $4,668 a month (what?!?$3,800 MORE per month than right now? How can this be?)

He'll be fine once he gets up off the floor from receiving his supplemental tax bill for $8,000.

He won't mind that his property taxes will soon be $700 a month more than they were a month ago. What? property taxes almost as much as the mortgage? I'm feeling dizzy now.

Here's a little then and now.

Then:
Teaser mortgage:$833.33
Teaser Taxes: $ 75.00
Total: $ 908.33

Now:
Real mortgage: $4,668.58
Real taxes: $ 780.00
Real cost $5,448.58

(yeah, that's $65,400 after taxes a year in income!)

But I'm sure his real estate professional went over than with him.

right.

Anonymous said...

So one guy loses a ton and that means every home owner will? You guys need to get a grip.

My home was bought for $197K by the first owners in 2001. All homes were built by 2002 and were selling in the $230K range by the time the builder was done. I bought the house in 2003 for $299K. Last year the highest price paid in the subdivision was $515K and that was a former model with 1/3 acre - I have 1/5 acre by comparison.

The last home that sold bout 3 weeks ago, went for $450K. Before that a couple sold for $440K and $445K in October. So yes prices have fallen about 5-10%. But homes are still selling just not in hours but in months.

The pessimists are saying another 10% fall is likely. OK so the $450K homes will be worth $400K. If you are the sucker who bought for $500K...ouch. For the 90% who bought before 2005, we'll be just fine.

Anonymous said...

To The Thinker:

Just wait.

Paul E. Math said...

Dude, it's the optimists who are saying that prices will fall another 10%. The pessimists say they'll fall 80%. The realists say about 30-50%.

You might make out alright - I wouldn't worry. You're about to lose 200k in equity but hopefully knowing that equity was never real will help you sleep at night.

As long as you are not one of the millions and millions of people who took out a home equity loan on the illusory rise in equity that came with blue sky appraisals over the last 3 years. If that's the case then, surprise, you're actually going to have to work to pay it off - your house isn't going to do that for you.

Let's hope you didn't overextend yourself to buy that SUV. Hopefully you don't suffer a job loss or illness that will cause you to go into foreclosure, like is happening to so many people who took out toxic mortgages.

Anonymous said...

"Anonymous said...
So one guy loses a ton and that means every home owner will? You guys need to get a grip......So yes prices have fallen about 5-10%. But homes are still selling just not in hours but in months.

The pessimists are saying another 10% fall is likely. OK so the $450K homes will be worth $400K. If you are the sucker who bought for $500K...ouch. For the 90% who bought before 2005, we'll be just fine."

What if you HAVE to sell a year down the road(death, divorce, job change,) and the now 400K house is down to 350K or even 300K. Take off closing costs, are they still okay? That generalization about the 90% being just fine carrys a big 'IF' with it.

Anonymous said...

This is the way it is for peak buyers in San Diego....THEY ARE SCREWED!!!!!!!
And I am just a poor renter with a very nice stash of cash in the bank just waiting for the bottom.

Anonymous said...

I still have neighbors saying that I need to jump in and buy now as prices will be going up. Funny thing is that the houses all around them for sale have dropped at least 20-25% in the past year and are still for sale!!!!!!
I think we still have a very painful way to go.

Anonymous said...

Mortgage Bankers Association is not biased? LMAO

They are the enablers of the housing bubble. They are the ones pushing the toxic option-ARM loans and they desperately NEED this ponzi scheme to continue.

Even if their numbers can be believed, ONE WEEK up after SEVEN MONTHS down does not indicate a trend reversal. More likely it's a dead cat bounce.

foxwoodlief said...

News article here in Austin said a new survey showed 8 out of 10 people feel prices will flatten or go up slightly and most don't believe a massive loss of real estate value. If a market needs believers to continue it seems like there is still a lot out there to continue supporting the market in the spring.

With interest rates coming down, supposedly job growth up, wages adjusted for inflation up, a likely up-tick in the minimum wage-which will cause everyone to ask for a corresponding jump to keep parity with those who got an increase at the bottom, a declining dollar, we may yet see another year before the bottom really starts to fall out.

Anonymous said...

What if you HAVE to sell a year down the road(death, divorce, job change,) and the now 400K house is down to 350K or even 300K. Take off closing costs, are they still okay? That generalization about the 90% being just fine carrys a big 'IF' with it.

Saturday, December 09, 2006 4:06:04 PM
---------------------

There will be lots of lost jobs, divorces, deaths by self inflicted wounds from this down turn.

Anonymous said...

hi dont get suckered.

you mean well, but being riduclous here... the MOrtgage banker loan index is just a statistical sample and was first to show the DOWNTURN when real estate was hot... so please, lets have a crdible discussion.. the numbers arent disputed by anyone credible.. they wer DOWN for most of the year

it has NOT been a one week jump,, theres been a steady recovery of late and now reached 7 month high..

its just a fact no bias here,, i just look at it as a number,, others here wont agree cause of there bias,, thats not credible

please look at the indx over the last year ,, there was NO bias when it showed the downturn in mortgage apps, no bias now.. please dot be a conspiracy thorist here,, i didnt make up the numberes and am not rah rahing them either,, it just is...