Yes,eventually even the MSM has to report the truth, vs. the spin. Nice to see the NYT fire the first salvo against the NAR and government.
As all HP'ers know, true house VALUES are crashing, and crashing hard. 
Good luck trying to sell a home in this environment - only a dramatic price cut will move the dead wood. Or massive incentives ($100,000 cash back at closing, free cars etc).
What Statistics on Home Sales Aren’t Saying
The truth is that the official numbers on house prices — the last refuge of soothing information about the real estate market on the coasts — are deeply misleading.
In reality, homes across much of Florida, California and the Northeast are worth a lot less than they were a year ago.
Jerome J. Manning, who runs the Massachusetts-based auction company that conducted the Naples sale, told me he thought that values had dropped about 20 percent around Boston.
The market in northern Virginia is similar: prices are down 10 to 15 percent, according to an analysis by Mr. Lawler, a former Fannie Mae executive who’s based there. In Portland, Me., the typical house has lost about 10 percent of its value in the last year and a half, said Bill Trask, the former head of the local Realtors’ board.
We may now be living on both borrowed money and borrowed time.
December 07, 2006
New York Times (finally) points out the obvious - house prices are crashing (no matter what the NAR or US government reports tell you)
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There was a rising vacancy rate across the nation in both rental and homeowner properties during the third quarter:
http://www.census.gov/hhes/www/housing/hvs/qtr306/q306tab1.html
Some areas showed very low vacancy rates, while other areas showed very high vacancy rates, thus it might be possible some areas will yet demand housing construction.
homes that don't or won't sell don't get put into the official numbers, nor do the big incentives
the nar numbers are a joke and so is the nar
I think the homebuilder stocks are detached from the reality of home prices
You'll see consolidation in their arena, so many stocks will jump as they get bought out. You'll also see the strong get stronger with less competition.
I don't like homebuilder stocks short or long. But I'm 100% confident on the price direction of houses.
Here is a link to a blog post on all three NYTimes housing articles of the day.
Homebuilder stocks are subject to the same buyout frenzy that is buoying the whole market. Gates foundation buying HOV (and LEN, I think) gave them a boost. I think even Gates will get burned.
aaron, you said gates was buying HB's. Now lets really think about that, is Bill Gates sitting in his huge home clicking thru e-trade and buying HB's, or is some wall street breed financial anal-yst running his investments and picking up shares of HB's that have dropped 50% from their highs because 1) he believe they are value plays 2) he is owned by the wall street firms 3) if Bill loses 1, 2 or 5 million dollars on HB's it really means nothing to Bill, he has sooo much money he never looks at the trades of his endowments anyway.
he anyone read the transcript of the Bob Toll conference call, he says with the change in DC, 50 people may be moving to town for hinm to sell homes to!
50 potential sales!!!
BUY TOL before the reast of the market does, big profits coming soon
the truth will set us free.
melt down has not started. houses in cali will drop 40% or stay flat for years because new buyers cannot afford these prices. Everyone i know in cali that owns a house could not afford it at todays price plus taxes. They all purchased between 96 and 2001. numbers dont add up just like yahoo at 280a share and all those over priced shit companies in the 90's. It simple its not worth it!!!
I agree with anon California is way overpriced. California turned into a competition to see who could borrow the most money to keep up with the Jones'. Unfortunatly, the Jones' sold in 2005 and got out before the crash. I expect major declines in California in 2007.
Very true: I sold my stucco box in Milpitas for $630K with a $12K kickback at closing. Thus the real price was $618K. Zillow reports the house as sold at $630K which is also the tax basis for that house.
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