Bubblesitters and Bitter Renters - do you find that homedebtors are growing increasingly and personally hostile to any conversation that housing prices are crashing?
December 18, 2006
HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day
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Absolutely. I've had confused looks from people when I tell them I will be buying a home in late 2007 or early 2008. I've been screamed at by people with their homes on the market when I tell them that I don't believe the market will come back until 2010-2011. I've really been screamed at when I tell them they should have known the market was going to crash and sold their house like I did.
I don't even bring it up anymore. I just watch from the sidelines when people talk about it.
Luckily for men, I had ALREADY alienated all of my peers a couple of years ago regarding the housing bubble.
I first began telling all the homedebtors that we were in a bubble in 2003.
Not one of them believed me.
Several of them openly mocked me.
So, I next constructed a detailed spreadsheet for them to demonstrate just how much, net, including all payments for principal, interest, taxes, insurance, maintenance, upgrades and commissions they would pay over the life of a house.
The number?
AFTER all tax deductions, the net cost to stay in a house, over thirty years is approximately THREE TIMES the original selling price.
And, in an inflationary scenario (such as we have had in housing over the last thirty-five years), I showed how the escaalting property taxes, insurance, maintenance and upgrade costs will literally price people out of the homes they would NEVER own (thanks to those nasty, ongoing property taxes, which render sheeple serfs of the state), especially as they grew older, inflation kept rising and they were on a fixed income.
Once I sat people down with the black-and-white numbers and destroyed their myths that housing was going to make them rich, I had already lost them as friends.
And remember, in my spreadsheet, I plugged in numbers that showed how they would be eaten alive in an inflationary environmnet.
It was even worse in a deflationary environment if they had previously signed off on a large McMansion debt, THEN had the price go down on the house.
Of course, at that time not one sheeple could accept that real estate prices could EVER go down.
So, at this point I don't even discuss the issue anymore.
No need to.
They are screwed.
Butch
But Suzanne researched it!!!!!!!!
Yes absolutely, worse since I am an owner/debtor not a renter. Much much more hostility since "one of their own has turned against them". Worse is the dodo's that are waiting in line to get theirs built. I talked 2 of them into putting it on hold, but the rest of them are hissing at me.
Cool.
Srinath.
People I've spoken with have gotten quite defensive lately. I've decided to keep quiet about housing in front of most home owners I know; most of them are pretty much screwed.
The only good thing I can say is that everyone in my family that purchased a house bought years ago when prices were much lower; all of them bought before 1995. Because of the lower cost back then, and the amount they've paid toward the mortgage so far, they probably won't loss money if they had to sell today.
My biggest concern is the insurance and taxes in in Florida; both are out of control. I fear this will ultimately force my grandparents out of this state. Even though they bought in 1994, and took out NO equity on their home, their taxes and insurance have nearly tripled since 2000, and they can't afford it anymore.
-Dragasoni-
This past week, I had the delicious pleasure of pointing out the dropping values of real estate to my ex-wife who bought a lot in 2004 and built in the Summer of 2005 - about the time that Bob Toll began dumping Toll Brothers shares. No replies. I believe she is in complete denial at this point but knows the uncomfortable truth. Her house will become a physical manifestation of her stupidity and hubris.
We had a less than amicable separation and divorce. Last year, when she completed the new McHouse, she smugly invited me inside to take a tour. I politely declined and got into my car to drive back to my apartment – laughing the entire way back!
HAHAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!
Smug Bastard
Spent a week with a person from SD, CA and they still act like prices are not dropping and inventories are not growing. He just didn't have time to talk about housing like he once did. Still buying tons of bling, with his heloc ATM money.
yeah, i soft-pedal this subject. not worth the animosity.
Yup i get the same look, I dont even bother to bring it up anymore..I just did last week..trying like hell to get my borther in-law to refi out of his IO-ARM by telling him 30 rates were very low at the moment.. blows it off with the .." They go up and down I'll jump on after the winter"\
good luck..and with a new baby on the way, and my sister out of work...thing will be tight for them for sure....but i tried, and tried, and tried, and tried...ignorence is bliss.
It's still all about the derivatives markets...
Why are the big investment banks turning most of their profits from hedge fund activities?!?
Without government regulation they are able to churn derivatives and "print" money...
So, who is the ultimate guarantor???
Irrational people who refuse to listen to a reasonable, fact-based contrary opinion learn only one way. The hard way. There are going to be more than a few chastened former homeowners over the next few years.
It's all falling apart now
I wouldn't walk up to a smoker and point out that smoking will probably kill him. He probably knows and really doesn't want to hear it.
I certainly wouldn't walk up to a smoker dying of lung cancer and tell him that he should have known and his now certain death is due to his own ignorance.
People have the facts and they make their own decisions. Then they must live with the consequences. It is best to keep quiet and not try to tell others how to live their lives.
My buddy was thinking he's in the $$$ because he bought 2 houses (in 2004 and 2005) and prices keep going up and up. I told him your making a big mistake but his realator told him all these BS stories "get in now" "sure thing" "$$$". The party is over and here comes the bill.
I have found a new hobby. What I do is I call the real estate agents who are trying to sell the never ending supply of ridiculously overpriced waterfront condos where I live in Florida and lowball them by offering to pay 50% of what the condo is listed at. The realtors react in one of 2 ways. Either they laugh or they get mad. It's fun listening to them when they get mad or insulted by my offer. One guy last week even threatened me with physical violence, lol.
You know what I find very telling? No news reports about the Poulson/Bernanke delegation's visit to China. Nada.
Is there some bad news being suppressed?
"Hovonian" reports tomorrow.
My guess. Terrible stats but market will cheer because it's a sign of a "bottom" and Hovonian stock will rise.
Nice.
I don't open my mouth anymore.
People will hear just what they want to hear. I've won some people over to sanity, and lost some. I feel that I have done my part. Now I just sit and watch.
And read HP everyday!
housing not the only thing crashing:
OPEC Abandons U.S. Dollar
http://news. newsmax.com/ ?bUY73bF1Rs- Iaj-qFqRMmnUKkQb
Oil-producing countries have reduced their dollar holdings to the lowest
level in two years and shifted oil income into other currencies,
according to the Bank for International Settlements.
Members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia
reduced their dollar holdings from 67 percent in the first quarter to 65
percent in the second quarter.
At the same time, they increased their holdings of euros from 20 percent
to 22 percent, the BIS said. They also boosted holdings of the yen and
British pound.
Eighteen months ago, the oil-producing countries' exposure to the dollar
was above 70 percent.
Bubblesitters and Bitter Renters - do you find that homedebtors are growing increasingly and personally hostile to any conversation that housing prices are crashing?
No, I haven't experienced any outright hostility, only denial from some people and a lot of crying from others. Apparently, the panic stage of the upcoming real estate crash of 2007 is only just beginning.
There must still be a lot of Casey Serin wanna bees, because the real estate section of last Sunday's SF Chronicle compiled a reading list for those who haven't gotten screwed yet, but still want to have a fling with Suzanne. Check out The Top 10 Real Estate Books Of 2006:
The Automatic Millionaire Homeowner
-- Renting is for suckers. Buying with instant negative equity is the only way to go!
Real Estate Debt Can Make You Rich
-- Those tax-deductible, negative-amortization debt bombs can put you on the fast track to wealth!
Success as a Real Estate Agent for Dummies
-- A best seller in Phoenix!
Here's what I've done:
Before I start discussing anything related to real estate or equities, I first ask people to throw themselves on their knees and bow, calling me the reincarnation of Nostradamus. If and only if they agree to the above, do I prognosticate the future of RE. The idea is that people have to surrender their personal power and belief in themselves to a higher authority i.e. ME!
Once they've accepted their relative state of inadequacy, I offer my services. Is this egotistical and highly meglomaniac-like? Certainly, but so what? Rather that then be stabbed in the back when I'm not looking.
david in jax & metroplexual:
like you guys, i no longer say a word in front of my in-laws who, 2 years ago, i've been telling them about the bubble. i just listen this time.
"Don't ever lament about the stupidity of other men. It's your chance"
attributed to Winston Churchill
"I offer my services."
Cool - u give blow jobs too?
Yes I do. A friend bought a condo in July of this year and says that housing prices will remain flat, then go up again.
She doesnt believe there is a bubble.
Other friends who bought 3 years ago wont talk about the market, but last year at this time, they had no problem with sharing how much equity they had in their home.
I love it when I hear people say that this is just cyclical. I tell those folks that we are now in uncharted territory as the convergence of geological and geopolitical quagmires unfold before us. I can't wait for the economic fix it team to report back to us. The USA is in a meltdown mode and nobody wants to talk about it. If anyone on this blog wants links to some informative articles as they relate to this meltdown, go to lifeaftertheoilcrash.net. Richard knows about this one.
Happy Holidays,
Pedro
Will new housing stock prices ever coincide with realestate reality again, as the two seem diametrically opposed like I have not seen since the dot com bubble of 2000. Some say this is because stock prices are reflecting the state of their marketplace 9 months out, and realestate in 9 monthes is sure to rebound, but having heard these arguements, then why hasn't one single homebuilder upped their earnings estimates forecasts for that timeframe, and better yet why hasn't the marketplace reflected earnings degradation as far as the eye can see? Make no mistake, one side is real wrong.
Richard...first you must have a dick to get a blowjob. Since you're a dickless freak I guess your question is rhetorical in nature...
I'm still suffering from seller's remorse. I sold my condo in 2004 after a 350% gain after 4 years. In the past few months other condos have sold for over 100K what I sold for. Go zillow it yourself. 8020 Langdon Ave. Van Nuys, CA 91406
I'll take that as a yes ;)
I don't bring it up anymore because people have gotten so defensive and angry in the past. I have definately noticed a shift to "fear" lately, though. Now, those that I warned, say..."Nobody knows how far it will fall." "True, true," I say in an appeasing tone. For most people, what's done is done...there's no reason to discuss the depth of the fall...it will play out in time.
I read lifeaftertheoilcrash.net every day. It's just a great blog with all the very important up to date information that everyone should be very very aware of, but practically nobody is. I don't even watch the MSM news anymore, it's worthless mind manipulating spew. Thank god for the inet!!!!
Correction, it's not a blog, it's a website...with links to all the breaking news, that matters.
bubble trouble
i have posted that link here dozens of times...
most think we will have oil forever or an alternative will take oils place.
Thanks Richard. I probably got the link from you...I have been reading this blog for about a year and a half, so I don't recall. It's a priceless website. I'm also a big fan of safehaven.com
www.dieoff.org
is another good site
Prepare to be shocked.
The US is insolvent. There is simply no way for our national bills to be paid under current levels of taxation and promised benefits. Our federal deficits alone now total more than 400% of GDP.
That is the conclusion of a recent Treasury/OMB report entitled Financial Report of the United States Government that was quietly slipped out on a Friday (12/15/06), deep in the holiday season, with little fanfare. Sometimes I wonder why the Treasury Department doesn’t just pay somebody to come in at 4:30 am Christmas morning to release the report. Additionally, I’ve yet to read a single account of this report in any of the major news media outlets but that is another matter.
But, hey, I understand. A report is this bad requires all the muffling it can get.
In his accompanying statement to the report, David Walker, Comptroller of the US, warmed up his audience by stating that the GAO had found so many significant material deficiencies in the government’s accounting systems that the GAO was “unable to express an opinion” on the financial statements. Ha ha! He really knows how to play an audience!
In accounting parlance, that’s the same as telling your spouse “Our checkbook is such an out of control mess I can’t tell if we’re broke or rich!” The next time you have an unexplained rash of checking withdrawals from that fishing trip with your buddies, just tell her that you are “unable to express an opinion” and see how that flies. Let us know how it goes!
http://tinyurl.com/ybk7fe
http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/martenson/2006/1217.html
This is why I'm so glad there is HP, because I can't talk about real estate with my friends anymore. The real bob is right, real estate has become one of those taboo subjects that is sure to start an argument and end in animosity. I have done my duty to my friends by stating my opinion based on research and analysis - I can't do much more at this point.
I live in Portland OR and like many folks who posted today, I've stopped talking about the credit/housing bubble.
The defensiveness ensues almost immediately; first in their eyes, then the posturing, finally the words come out...angry words couched in cleverness. They're not listening; I am reminded of the following quote from Thus Spoke Zarathustra:
"When Zarathustra had spoken these words he looked again at the people and fell silent. “There they stand,” he said to his heart, “they laugh, they do not understand me, I am not the mouth for these ears."
i have stopped talking about it. at least at work. Some of the co-workers have purchased in the past two years and they have gone through several stages of denial. At present they just say that there MAY be something out there, BUT not in their town. Their town is bubble proof and will never see price depreciations.
My brother just bought the house down the street from him for an "investment". He paid over $400K for a house that should be selling for $250K tops. He thinks that his area is bubble proof and that he will see at leasta 15% increase each year. He only plans to keep the house for 2 years.
I have warned him and warned him....he thinks that I am crazy and that the feds would never allow RE to decline.
I think he is very wrong to the tune of about a loss of 40% over 2 years wrong.
Actually yes, and I've been surprised to see some articles coming out calling bubble sitters "bitter people who missed out on the opportunity of a lifetime."
I find myself questioning who's really bitter.
I disagree with people who think that prices will stay flat. I have never seen a bubble that didn't pop. I hear this notion over and over again from various soft landing prognosticators. To see what is coming takes no special skills of any kind. You see the car wreck teetering on the edge of a cliff, wobbling, yet some optimistically think that by some miracle the 1000 foot drop will be avoided. Oh well...
if you really want to see "angry and confused" then just bring up the name "Lyndon H. LaRouche".
Bubblelicious said...
Definately avoid the subject and prod them for information. I am amazed at how many professionals have ARMs. It's shocking.
Monday, December 18, 2006 1:35:39 PM
---------------
Well, you HAD to get in! If you didn't get in you might NEVER get in!!
Bubblelicious said...
I am amazed at how many professionals have ARMs. It's shocking.
Monday, December 18, 2006 1:35:39 PM
---------------
Well, you HAD to get in! If you didn't get in you might NEVER get in!!
---
The mantra is ARM it while you have the chance (you'll be priced out in a year) and then re-fi once you've built equity or gotten that bonus/raise.
What a lemming run!
People have the facts and they make their own decisions.
---------
Not so. Most people didnot know about the tax law change in '97. It turned housing into a commodity market. Commodities can go down.
I work in Century City Los Angeles where some big homes have big debt. This topic is a non starter. People walk away from me if I mention anything about housing.
The silence tells it all!
Keith, This debate from Fox was mentioned in TMTGM-blog and it confirms that a lot of nuts gets hostile by a mere whisper of a dysfunktional market.
http://www.europac.net/Schiff-Fox-12-16-06_lg.asp
I went looking at houses in Orange County. HQAHAHAHAHAHAHAAH the sellers are out of their minds. Most have dropped 45-60K but they are not getting any offers. Well my wallet is staying tight in my pocket.
The USA is in a meltdown mode and nobody wants to talk about it. If anyone
------
Wait til Bush II is out. They can tehn blaim all of this on Hillary or Obama.
Anonymous said...
I'm still suffering from seller's remorse. I sold my condo in 2004 after a 350% gain after 4 years.
----
You are one greedy P.O.S.
I over heard a Realogy exec and a RE agent try to persuede a couple that just moved into their house last year to up grade. The exec said "It is a great time to buy, historically low rates and large inventory...It is a buyer's market!" I kept my mouth shut. BTW the hubby squelched any buying.
BUT not in their town. Their town is bubble proof and will never see price depreciations.
Monday, December 18, 2006 7:14:41 PM
-----
Sounds like Chicago
I laugh everytime I read Devestment's post looking at that Snidely Whiplash picture!
LMAO
Smug Bastard
I dont see any good outcomes here...But I will share my story. And my thoughts on the future.
I am renting; I wish I had bought in late 2002, but I was about to be layed off and the housing market around Washington DC/ Maryland had been heating up for 5+ years already. My father encouraged me to wait - since I didnt know where I would be working next. I ended up traveling for some time. When I came back to the Maryland suburbs, prices were crazy. My pay is equal to what is was in 2001.
I wish that prices would go down. When I hear about 5 % price reduction (which is mostly happening in Northern VA and DC anyhow), I laugh. The houses I know about have gone from around 170-200K in 1997 to anywhere from 450 in farther out/ white-flight neigherborhoods to 580 close to jobs - Montgomery County area.
Has anyone considered the underlying cause of this? Besides, rates, tech /stock bubble of 2000, and physcology.
I believe the middle class is going away. I think to be successful you need ever more high paying job or be self-employed. And when you factor in globalism and its destruction of many American jobs markets, I assume people will huddle around DC and the glamour cities (LA/NY/SF/...) for white collar work (until the government itself goes bankrupt.)
People will stop having kids and the country will be an elitist place for the few that get into the upper ranks. The rest of the houses will be occupied by large groups of migrant workers sharing expenses.
Butch - Wouldn't inflationary pressures just be passed on to renters also?
Anonymous said...
I disagree with people who think that prices will stay flat. I have never seen a bubble that didn't pop.
--------
Theorectically a bubble can go on forever. The reason it pops is the membrain becoms too thin and the expanding air on the inside pushes too hard on that thinned out area. POP!
If the US consumer was fically healthy, then it could go on and on. But they are not. List of things that are thinning out he bubble's skin:
- massive personal cc debt
- ARMs turing over
- negative saving rate
- dollar loosing value
- massive drop in RE salles
- cooresponding increase in RE inventories
- worker wages not increasing with the pace of RE prices
All of the above will lead to significant decreases in RE prices. This decrease will turn people upside down on their RE investments (which is ANY RE purchase in the last 5 years). Once they are upside down tehy cannot sell, move, or use their RE ATM. That will the bubble bursting.
I have a friend that just got married 1 yr a go. they bought right away. a "starter" home. (ie 2 bed 1 bath). Ugh. Was at a holiday party and started talking RE with a bunch of people. I tried to explain how a house is a depreciating asset. He went bizerk! He wouldn't talk to me the rest of the night.
Q- Are sellers waking up to reality that is why they are so crank?
A- Obviously they realize that they are screwed------- so enjoy their misery and throw them low ball offers that are just devastating. It's fun to play with their minds.
"I believe the middle class is going away. I think to be successful you need ever more high paying job or be self-employed. And when you factor in globalism and its destruction of many American jobs markets, I assume people will huddle around DC and the glamour cities (LA/NY/SF/...) for white collar work"
Yes! This is why I'm buying my retirement pad in Buffalo NY but I'm renting in all those cities, changing white collar jobs every 5 or so years, just to keep my low six figure income but taking advantage of the fact that being mobile is key in maintaining employment these days. Here's my bit on the other thread on RE and property taxes for upstate NY.
---
Concerning Buffalo/Upstate NY, true, property taxes are higher than average, however, consider this... the region has experienced a thirty year bear market across the board but yet, it doesn't resemble Detroit or South Central LA with widespread crime and gangster elements ruling the place.
What that tells me is that the region has adapted to a world of decreasing opportunities which makes it a perfect place to retire in (as oppose to actively seeking employment) whereas the rest of the so-called information enabled cities (see Boston, NYC, Chicago, SF, DC, etc) have developed a false sense of security on the continuation of the American century *indefinitely*.
What'll happen is that these A-cities will experience a shock when the world starts to revolve around the Shanghai/Beijing (manufacturing) to Moscow/Vladivostok (energy) axis of power during the next twenty or more years. That's when the Boston to DC youth (of all races) will start to form gangs and raid the formerly gated a/o individualized McMansion communities in search of cash or valuables. Since the Buffalo region has never offered any hope to its young, this wouldn't be a problem there. Buffalonians of all ages have accepted their fate as a city of relative peace (good neighbors) but no prosperity.
No, not yet. Most still believe they are better off today than four years ago and that so what if prices come down some, most don't believe in more than 10-20% off and still puts them way ahead since they bought before 2003.
Here in Austin I get hostility when I try to talk about high property taxes. All I get is, we are more affordable, we didnt' experience a bubble like LA or Phoenix or Miami, and we don't pay an income tax!
Laugh. I'd rather pay an income tax than a regressive property tax. Want to see hostile? Tell a Texan they'd be better off with lower property taxes and a state income tax.
Age of Oil
http://www.soundcli ck.com/pro/ view/01/default. cfm?BandID= 111310&content=lyrics&SongID=2706382
It was as if there was a contest
To see how many holes could be dug
To see how much of it could be sucked from the ground
To kill off every beetle and bug
To kill off every woman and child
To kill off every man
And they put it all in barrels
Then they put the barrels into cans
That’s how it was at the end of the age of oil
It was like a competition
To see how big everything could get
From the highways to the strip malls
To the giant TV sets
From the MOABs to the draglines
Monster trucks and SUVs
And the massive roaring chainsaws
That cut down all the trees
That’s...
It was like they were trying to see
How many garbage dumps they could fill
How many flagpoles they could squeeze
Onto a single windowsill
How many countries could be bombed
How much black gold they could drill
How much coal could they extract
If they just blew up the hills
That’s...
It was as if there was some kind of test
And the only way to pass
Was to turn the planet’s atmosphere
Into a cloud of poison gas
It was like the only thing that mattered
Was the death of life on Earth
That seemed to be the proof
That you had made your money’s worth
That’s...
And now here we are
Rotting in this bubble
And I’m looking at my grandchildren
Framed in by the rubble
Wondering what I coulda done
To avert this fate
But I was too busy playing concerts
Saying fuck isn’t life great
That’s...
One factor people don't consider in analyzing the housing crash... When the dot com bust and low rates made real estate look attractive in the ate 90s, the "fundamentals" of a "good investment" were in place. After many years of modest inflation in both wages and housing, one could buy a rental house, for example, with a standard 10% or 20% down payment and still have positive cash flow after debt service. The R/E market ran up because in 2001-02, R/E WAS a good investment. As more people "realized" this, increased demand ate up supply, which caused price increases. At some point (03-04?) prices began to outrun economic practicality. From that moment on, POSITIVE psychology was the only thing that kept the market going higher. If the same demand / supply situation were at hand today, with today's NEGATIVE expectation, prices would not go up and would either stabilize or drop slightly. Reality today, however, is that supply & demand are WAY out of whack compared to 03-04. Go watch Titanic - and note the scene when Rose and Jack are standing on the stern of the ship as it has angled itself to an almost vertical position, waiting for the final sinking into the sea, and you'll understand just where our economy may be today!
When they start taking numbers for who wants to die off first....will you please sign up early Richard? I think people would like you to be at the front of the line......
I am a homedebtor...to the tune of 200k with an insane 5.375, 30 year fixed in Southern California. OH WOE AS ME.
:Most still believe they are better off today than four years ago
Well, wait till they lose their job, are asked to move (via headhunter/recruiter) but then can't sell in an illiquid market, and are stuck with both a mortgage and renting an apt in a new city.
I suspect that companies won't be lenient on those who don't want to move for work in the future as white collar opportunities dwindle in the former bubble zones.
I HOPE YOUR HOUSE BURNS DOWN
The housing crash is the trigger for a perpetual depresssion.
When we need oil and other fossil fuels most - it will not be cheap - and economic inputs to pull the world out of the depression will not be available.
One aspect - less home debtors...less taxes...less subsidaries to support ethanol. Less capital to begin or continue very costly manufacturing.
See - when oil becomes cost prohibitive...housing will not even be a zit on the ugly face of life.
The USDA annual food report of 2006 reports that since 1999 our food RESERVES have been reduced to half - from 114 days of reserve to 57 days.
Let me repeat that - the world went through HALF of its food reserves in 7 years...
Now consider reduced oil supplies...you think combines are gonna be running at a loss...you think 40 ton trucks are gonna deliver a mango to you in Chicago in December...you think pesticides and fertilizers are gonna be available to produce the food you consume?
One last time people...we will NEVER pull out of this housing crash...and at least 80% of us useless eaters will die in the next 2 to 4 decades.
Let us thank Richard for the cheery prognosis. Richard, I think you need to watch alot of Hollywood ending movies, because you are starting to bum me out.
I don't buy the end of the world stuff you promulgate, but I do give it credence. I still be4lieve we are incredibly clever monkeys and I think you deep in your heart hope all will turn out well. Merry Christmas to you Richard and I hope you find hope.
I think Richard listened to the Wall by Pink Floyd one to many times and became tragically depressed....one more brick in the wall.
"I think you deep in your heart hope all will turn out well. "
I have two young kids...knowing yesterday what I know today I would not have had children.
Too bad I do not share your optimism...truth sucks and the sooner people realize we have significatntly overpopulated this planet - the sooner life begins.
See metro - because I have been to the other side...the side of truth...I know what the future holds for us as a species...we are by far NOT clever monkeys and I question whether we are smarter than yeast.
You see metro - every moment of every dad is all that counts...and while you and the vast majority continue to hope things will get better - life and living is just wizzing right past you.
Wake up friend - because as you continue in your slumber - as Floyd sang, "no one told me when to run ...i missed the starting gun"
"Well, wait till they lose their job,"
I lost my job 1 month after closing on a home in 2003. BFD. I found another job and life went on. Dont put off buying a home based on job security. No job is secure.
":Most still believe they are better off today than four years ago"
I KNOW I am better off today than 4 years ago. I barely got in at the rise. I would be shit out of luck on buying a home ( shut out) today if I would have not made a move years ago. I owne 200k, nerver refinanced, no HELOCs, 5.375, 30 year loan on a nice SoCal home. And I just got a big promotion at work!
ITS NOT ALL DOOM AND GLOOM
I read a story about a woman who bought a duplex in Berlin in about 1920. She survived hyperinflation, depression and WWII. She had a place to live and income.
If the dollar collapses for obvious reasons, where do you put your money before it is worth much less, perhaps zero. Gold and silver may preserve your wealth, but what about income?
::I read a story about a woman who bought a duplex in Berlin in about 1920.
Obviously she was in West Berlin and wasn't hit by a bomb during the war. What if she'd bought the place in Dresden? The RAF didn't leave much standing.
True story.
At the movies Fri. night here in North County Inland San Diego.
Advertisement comes up for a new home -- "only" $3,367 per month.
My wife and I laughed so hard, people were looking at us.
Richard,
I also have two kids. One is extremely bright. I understand many of the issues you detail here and know the dire nature of some of it. I just choose to think we can get out of the pitfalls. Trust me I was in your camp 15 years ago, in spite of that I had children.
BTW to use a Floyd reference I am not "comfortably numb" like you may think I am. I just don't see society and civilization unraveling like you do.
I do not see a "Postman" or "soylent Green Future" like you. C all me delusional but that is not how I see anything going. Will there be changes and accomodations to be made, sure. BUt it is not the end of the world. Hell, with rigged voting machines the dems still took back the house and senate. So richard there is hope. Not that I fully subscribe to the pollyanna view of world population, the link below is another view and where I get some inspiration.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Julian_Simon
"Trust me I was in your camp 15 years ago, in spite of that I had children."
I would maintain that you are comfortably numb.
C Metro - 15 years ago we knew of oil depletion...and exploding population growth. No thing was done.
When the Club of Rome and Limits to Growth came out in the 70s - we knew of oil depletion and exploding population growth. And no thing was done.
Now - as predicted - the chickens are coming home to roost.
There is no mystery to wars and environmental resource depletion - they are connected at the hip through time.
We will never end the war on terror. It has been always about the oil.
Read Catton's 1984 book called "Overshoot".
I am a realist Metro. I walk around and see human robots - doing their own biological thing - selfish - and uncontent. ZERO clue as to where a galloon of milk comes from.
Most people flip on a light switch and have no clue of its miracle. Go head metro - flip on a light switch...no imagine a world when you do the lights don't come on.
Finally read Richard Duncan's 1996 paper calle "The Olduvai Cliff" for a peak into a world without electricity.
No Metro...people suck - we do not learn - and we will die a horrific death in the same commensurate live it up style that brought us here. This is truth metro.
Enjoy your kids today my friend.
Will do Richard they are wonderful kids. Be careful with the that mostly empty glass of yours, because it is probably mostly backwash.
Ok Metro - let's compare backwash a year from now.
I would avoid hitting the punch bowl too much more.
Richard,
Thanks for the reading list. I have begun to read some and it led to the Olduvai Cliff event by Richard C. Duncan, for 2007 intrigues me. BTW are you that Richard?
The problem as I see it is there will be a day of reckoning. When I was a kid it was supposed to be in the 80's. It never happened. Now Kunstler and his ilk are saying it is the end of civilization now. Peak oil, peak natural gas etc. Chicken little
BTW I have reduced electrical consumption in my house with fluorescents (which use 25% of the energy of incandescent)and my bill is about a third less. I use low flow shower heads and have the hot water heater turned down so cold water is not needed when showering. My car gets 27 mpg highway as does my wife's.
Metro -
The rabbit hole is very perplexing that you have entered, but one thing I have found...
When you have tried good wine - I mean the really good stuff - the $200 dollar a bottle stuff...it is hard if not completely impossible to go back to mad dog 20/20.
Once people read and understand the truth about themselves...that we are a particulary rapacious species bent on greed - it is hard to go back to a "comfortably numb" state.
No I am not Richard Duncan - and one thing you should know is that he has recently revisited his prediction...it was 2030...now somewhere between 2008 and 2012.
Dried food and water should be first on the list
then meds and important papers
then ammo and guns and a bug out bag for you and yours.
If more people reduced both electrical consumption and gas use as you have we would be in a better place...this will happen albeit involuntarily.
Look a real shaking is heading our way. we will survive, but many are going to be ruined financially.
Conservation will take hold when the real crisis hits.There are smart people working on things right now that will help reduce our reliance on fossil fuels.
As for the housing bubble it amazes me how caught up people are in the phoney paperwealth they have accumulated, but it will all slip away soon. looking forward to a nice attitude adjustment in society. The something for nothing crowd needs it.
BOOOOOOOOOYAAAAAAAAAAA
Bob
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