December 05, 2006

Housing crash over! Toll Brothers biggest shareholder (Bob Toll) declares housing crash bottom

Oh, man, will this "prediction" look foolish a few months, and a few years from now. I do hope the SEC took note as well.

Yup, cancellations are at record levels, people think buying a home is stupid, Toll Brothers houses are laughed at, and he declares a bottom.

Man, that's funny! Like declaring a dead heart attack victim has "hit bottom" when they're in the coffin, which is where Toll Brothers' business is today - as good as dead.

But hey, wouldn't you try to stop the bleeding if you held 16,000,000 shares of Toll Brothers stock too?

Luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. on Tuesday said next year's annual profit will likely fall substantially from the recent boom years as the housing market continues to unwind, but also raised hopes that it's seen a bottom as buyer traffic improves in some markets.

"Fifteen months into the current slowdown, we may be seeing a floor in some markets where deposits and traffic, although erratic from week to week, seem to be dancing on the bottom, or slightly above," said Chief Executive Robert Toll in a statement.

Last month when it reported preliminary quarterly results, Toll said its orders fell 57% from a year earlier as its cancellation rate rose to 37%. It saw 585 cancellations for the fiscal fourth quarter, a record.

"With these cancellations creating unintended specs, we could face increasing margin pressure as we seek to move these homes," said CEO Toll in the earnings release Tuesday.

56 comments:

Anonymous said...

The Merit Financial story made the blogosphere rounds Sunday...

Anonymous said...

spin...spin...spin

keith said...

When you're not selling any homes, and all your prior sales are cancelled, that probably looks like a bottom, wouldn't it?

The real bottom though will be when they lay everyone off, their stock is $0, Bob Toll is in jail, and people start burning their McMansions down.

Anonymous said...

dunno keith, all these homebuilder guys were EXTREMELY bearish before, and you wouldnt argue with that, so if he says mkt conditions are starting to change , whats wrong with that

or is he supposed to keep any postive trends he sees to himself-

free speech goes both ways...

have you even noticed that housing inventory in most major areas in the us was increasing in the summer AND NOW in the last couple of months or so most area inventory levels are coming down???

SO maybe this guys telling the truth as to what he sees, thats all-

Anonymous said...

Toll must have got a big xmas gift from the corrupt david lereah.I wonder if it was some sort of nuts?

Anonymous said...

Casey serin has been arrested.His computers have been siezed by police and a warrant is out for his wife.

Anonymous said...

inventory always levels off this time of year, on account of it's winter.

Anonymous said...

KEith,

youd have a LOT more credibilty if you would stop SPINNING yourself..

you said 1 not selling ANY homes- thats not credible..

2 ALL your prior sales cancelled- not true either , cant you be happy with the FACTS if theres a 30% or so cancellation rate, just say that, thats slowdown, dont lose credibility by saying ALL sales cancelled

3- stock going to 0- Toll brothers , you got to be kidding- did you know that homebuilder stocks have been VERY strongperformers lately (about 15% gain on average)- are all the investment managers wrong now, and only right before when they were selling homebuilders...

MAn Im hoping we dont have to look at you and the overbullkish realtors in the same category of unreasonable bias....

keith said...

Bob Toll (last anon)

Read my note - I said when (future tense) you're not selling any homes, etc

As in, a bottom is still a ways off - in the future, when they're selling no homes (and Bob Toll is in jail)

Get it?

The bottom is NOT today

Anonymous said...

well believe me if the world of housing was going to totally crash and burn, inventory wouldnt be going down at all - winter or not-

if housingsgonna crash 35% nationwide like some of you naive people think, then with recent prices down "only" 3.5% nationwide, wouldnt all these homeoners be scramblig to add more inventory to the market and sell now before they drop 30% more- well they are not the MARKET is right you are WRONG people are deciding to HOLD on to there homes and even take them off the market in most areas befre selling them even 7 or 8 % lower, wake up...

Anonymous said...

they will put the homes back on the market in the spring and lose even more money.

Anonymous said...

ok keith, no hard feelings and you probably believe what you say-

but I have to respectfully disagree with the probable outcome

even in the last homes sales report- 140 or so areas gained in value vs 45 or so declining in value

of course some homes in AZ, ca NV etc were way over speculative in low income to price areas , and theres some trouble there..

but as the above stastic shows, its not statistically feasible to jumpo to the conclusinon that nationally the sky will fall

as a matter of fact most economists polled think that we are actually already past the worst for housing in most areas, and they are looking at supply demand, they arent realtors

the 10 year note is down almost 100 bps from its peak, making the affordibaility almost 10% easier on that basis alone,

wages are still going up nationally, and unmployment near lows (again natl average i know some people working for less money but to be objective must use national avg)

so as wages are generally higher over time this generalyy pouts upowards pressure on hard assets like housing, and the same 200,000 house based on wages will be more affordable going frowars

finally, there is extreme Bearish sentiment in housing right now, extreme bearishness as you probably know is more indicative of a market bottom then top- remember there was extreme BUllishness NOT bearishness right before the internet bust, here is just the opposite

also, most people who are raising their kids in homes in this country ARE responsible and CAN afford their mortgage, amateur johnny come lately flippers in phoenix or ca are not statistically representitive of the country at large.. the typicall homeowner will simply stay put and stay where he is and has no incentive to sell to you or me at 30 percent lower price next year simply cause some loonball phoenix investor in az is in trouble....

good luck

Anonymous said...

TOL stock up 3% as I write.

Printing press -- full power.

AndyMiamiBeach said...

Reminds me of George W's infamous MISSION ACCOMPLISHED speech....

MMAfia said...

Wow, there are really some idiots out there... simply have no conception about what we're facing... *ESPECIALLY* those who don't see the big picture of what's going on.

Seriously, people should learn about the macro economic disaster we are facing. And why the really smart people (yep, the billionaires) have positioned their investments to take advantage of the imminent housing collapse and stagflation we are looking right in the eye.

Read more, learn more, understand the macroeconomic situation, and it will be so clear why housing is super doomed. Start with this article... just ONE of the super richies and how he's positioning his assets and business (Thiel aka create PayPal, sell it to Ebay, then create Hedge Fund and take advantage of coming collapse):

What the SMART and REALLY RICH think

I love how this guy is RENTING in NYC right now after selling his condo. Exactly. SMART guy.

MMAfia

MMAfia said...

Hmm... not convinced yet?

How about George Soros? *if you don't know who he is, you should learn more about him*

He called it in his book...

"I believe we are currently in the midst of a gigantic real estate bubble. It was caused by the determination of the Federal Reserve Bank not to allow a stock market decline in 2001 to turn into a self-reinforcing rout. The federal funds rate was lowered to 1 percent. Mortgage institutions encouraged mortgage holders to refinance their mortgages and withdraw the excess equity. They lowered their lending standards and introduced new products such as adjustable rate mortgages (ARMs), “interest only” mortgages, and promotional “teaser rates.” All this encouraged speculation in residential housing units. House prices started to rise at double-digit rates. This served to reinforce speculation, and the rise in house prices made the owners feel rich; the result was a consumption boom that has sustained the economy in recent years. Again, the bubble can be attributed to a short-circuit between the value of assets and the act of valuation. This short-circuit is called the wealth effect."

Hmmmm... yes, this is mainstream media NOW, but not when he wrote about it.

MMAfia

Anonymous said...

Geez, that coffin must have been for some real fat guy.

MMAfia said...

Hmm.... ok, mebbe we just don't want to trust RICH people. What about just the SMART people then?

Well... there's a wealth of blogs out there for you to learn about and get out of "lemming" status...

Nouriel has a good blog going on... so does Econbrowser... and many others... go to where the Economists (grad school professors, etc.) come online to debate...

Good Starting Point

Don't be a Lemming!

MMAfia

Anonymous said...

I smell stagflation. But, I am ready with Bee Gees, Donna Summer, disco inferno, mirror balls and my white leisure suit. My hair is a little too thin to re-grow a good fro so I am shopping for a wig. I can get a nice stache going. Anybody know where I can get some mirror finish glasses? I might need to lose a few pounds to get into the leisure suit again. From MarketWatch. “If Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke hadn’t let on that he and some of his colleagues had a target range for inflation, he wouldn’t have to keep repeating over and over how worried he is about the pace of price hikes.”

“Former Fed head Alan Greenspan resisted the notion of publicizing an inflation target because he feared the very thing that’s happening now, above-range inflation combined with below-trend growth.”

“Right now, the Bernanke Fed is between a rock and a hard place. If it accepts above-range inflation, it loses credibility as an inflation fighter. If it doesn’t, it risks dumping the U.S. economy into another recession.”

Anonymous said...

the market will determine whether anyone who thinks housing nationwide (NOT just phoenix or whatever) will go totally bust from here is an idiot..

right now the fact that people are sooooo bearish, and still nationwide housing median down 3.5% while 140 plus areas gaining while only 40 plus falling could just as well mean that most of the bad news has ALREADY happened in most of th country

when I was suggesting to people to get out of internet stocks that made no money at the peak of that bubble, most were bullish, hence the market collapsed
]
now just the opposite, everyone is so bearish while basin most of this on limited areas like nv and az. where there was high amounts of speculation and prices out of whack with incomes-- the bearishness is so pervasive that moist tell anecdotes about the foolish investor with no money or experience in phoenix rather then look at cold numbers showing most area medians not dropping at ALL!! while interest rates have gone down almost 100bps on the 10 year , unemployment near historic lows..

well it seems more like the bottom of a market then a top when its so bearish and regionally focused thinking

yes the paypal guy is betting on deflation in housing and otherwise- agaijn thats an anecdote... there are plenty of OTHER rich people who own and continue to buy fairly priced real estate, so who says mr p[aypal is right

and the largest money managers have been INCREASING there exposure in the housing sector last two months, and their up 15%- are they idiots too?

And most economists (NOT realtors or bloggers , but economists) polled by the wall street journal say the worst for housing is over- are they idiots too


and so many people assume alan greenspan is an idiot for saying he feels the worst is over - of course he has no background or contacts that would give him, an insight-- while the same peole would be so sure to trust some 30 something paypal guy that wasn even old enough to hold housing through prior recessions and have long term experience


the crowd is usually wrong, especially when the magazine covers post front page articles agreeing with the crowd (in this case the sky is falling in housing all over the nation)... this is uually near the exact BOTTOM of a market..

Anonymous said...

Sorry to be mundane, but I think that is actually a picture of a humidore, not a coffin.

Anonymous said...

As an observer, I simply wonder how many working class people can afford to live in homes that seem to cost $450k+, even up to $700k, pay taxes and still have money left over to live a normal life. For example car expenses, commuting, groceries, utilities etc... You get the picture. Just my $0.02.

borkafatty said...

Are you sure that wasn't Bob Toll instead of the banker vip from CITIbank they caught yesterday in that penthouse in manhattan, the so called private Methlab baking up the goods?...me thinks it was..cause you have to be smokeing rock to belive we are in a turn around.

Anonymous said...

Before you totally discredit Toll. These guys nailed the last turn in the market in 1990s. Their timing and expansion when that market was near the bottom allowed to Toll Brothers to grow substantially.

Toll Brothers is one of the most conservative builders in the market. You still have Bob Toll reviewing and approving every land deal the company does. That is unheard of for a public builder.

Anonymous said...

This board sounds like it is filled with a bunch of disgruntled renters who can't afford the good things in life, so they bash what other people have strived to achieve.

My guess is if prices dropped 50% most of you losers still couldn't afford a home.

Anonymous said...

"you have to be smoking rck to think theres a turnaround"


gee, inventory is going down and demand picking up.. and you feel the worst is yet to come -- whos smoking the rock

Anonymous said...

it sounds like you all are so bearish cause either

1. you happen to live in the speculative most overpriced areas like ca which the rest of the country doesnt follow or care about anyway

2. you listen to others with the same views and think that makes it true

3 if you actually follow supply and demand numbers its showing that things havent been getting worse lately, that play is done and gone..


man you are in for a BIG surprise when the national yes NATIONAL average median (not your friends overpriced house in phoenix) will at least be flat and most probably HIGHER in a year then today

youll have all sorts of excuses, the market is just dumb, we all know better then the market blah blah blah..face it your just wrong, and the whole country doesnt revolve around phoenix or las vegas or southern ca ...

borkafatty said...

gee, inventory is going down and demand picking up.. and you feel the worst is yet to come -- whos smoking the rock.

----------------

HAHAHAHAH! Must be a nice place to live...LA!LA! Land that is.

hemorrhoidforhousing said...

There's an article on cnn.com stating basically the same thing....the worst for housing is over and things will be okay, just don't expect any price gains for the next few years.....

The way they are phrasing things right now seems to be intended to get people who are sitting on the sidelines back in the game by convincing them they won't "lose" any money....just not make any.

Housing isn't supposed to "make" money. It is a consumable asset which requires cash to operate and maintain.

Why can't people get this through their thick frickin skulls?

hemorrhoidforhousing said...

There's an article on cnn.com stating basically the same thing....the worst for housing is over and things will be okay, just don't expect any price gains for the next few years.....

The way they are phrasing things right now seems to be intended to get people who are sitting on the sidelines back in the game by convincing them they won't "lose" any money....just not make any.

Housing isn't supposed to "make" money. It is a consumable asset which requires cash to operate and maintain.

Why can't people get this through their thick frickin skulls?

Anonymous said...

well, if your so smart, why dont you come back with the numbers for most metro areas.. supply is going down over the last couple of months...

DOnt simply show me phoenix or ca..

so your wrong, acting smart but simply not able to look at numbers for what they are...

OH and take a look at the mortgage application index for new purchases over the last month too ..its been going up

so smartass, whos in la la land

this is supposedly the worst market in history, because you listen to cnn too much, and the reality is nationally we are treading water at worst right now in most of the country

and if you come back using california or az as an example nationally your hopeless

LATEST HOUSING SLES MEDIAN DOWN ABOUT 3.5 %

OVER 140 AREAS MEDIANS GAINED IN VALUE WHILE 40 OR SO DECREASED

those are the facts, the sell housing play nationwide has come and gaone youll be the last to know cause you focus on anecdoted and the worst regions ( not the 140 or so that went up even now)

youd never pass your first interview as a trader at any major house if you cant look at hard facts instead of emotions bias etc

hemorrhoidforhousing said...

anon 8:41....wow that hurt. I'm sooo glad you pointed this out to me. I'm going to go home, break my lease go out and buy a house tomorrow just to prove I'm not a disgruntled loser. Maybe I'll start drinking again after 15 years of sobriety to prove I'm a man too.

Just because somebody has the smarts to say no to a bad idea doesn't make them a loser, less of a man or anything else.. But *ssholes like you prove yourself to be an *sshole by your own actions. To be contrary to your perspective does not make me wrong.

Anonymous said...

you tellthis guy hes in la la land cause he mentions supply in majority of areas decreasing and new purchase apps up

he happens to be right if you look at the last couple of months

you all are happy to look at the summer's numbers when the opposite was true-

but now when the same numbers have reversed you attack someone who brings it to your attention cause you simply want to follow the bearish crowd or whatever...

well thats pretty amateurish, numbers cut both ways, and you need to see the facts when things start to turn..

MMAfia said...

"when I was suggesting to people to get out of internet stocks that made no money at the peak of that bubble, most were bullish, hence the market collapsed
]
now just the opposite, everyone is so bearish while basin most of this on limited areas like nv and az. where there was high amounts of speculation and prices out of whack with incomes--"

Umm.. I'd rather believe Shiller who called out the Dot Bust by publishing his book the night before the collapse. He's also more credible than you since he co-created the Case-Shiller index used by the housing futures market on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange. And guess what he thinks. Ever see his inflation-adjusted graph? Riiiiiight.

"and the largest money managers have been INCREASING there exposure in the housing sector last two months, and their up 15%- are they idiots too?"

AGAIN, false. The largest money managers are NOT increasing their exposure in the housing sector. Lemmings (who may share your point of view) are making up the trade volume. Watch the insider trading filings once the "pump" is "dumped" by executives. On a side note, other lemmings have been adding trade volume in general- the hedge funds and large asset/institutional managers are SHORT.
chart

"And most economists (NOT realtors or bloggers , but economists) polled by the wall street journal say the worst for housing is over- are they idiots too"

No they are well-paid smart people with conflict of interest written all over their forheads. While they're not Jim Cramer, you get the drift. If you still believe in these "corporate" economists, you are still stuck in lemming phase. Now, University professors on the other hand have much less motivation to tilt their views as they are not as financially aligned with corporations and/or financial institutions in their jobs as professors.

And if you are of age, and then surely you MUST know that housing downturns almost NEVER bottom out so quickly. Proof? Just go the the NY Times archive and read articles in the early 80s and 90s proclaiming the bottoming out of those real estate busts.

Factor in the HUGE appreciation that is the most we've EVER seen in history for housing, and tell me, do you think that the largest housing price appreciation will be followed with an ABNORMALLY "fast" bust?

Hmmm... how about reading this? In this case, a University Economics Professor at UC San Diego thought the housing market bottomed out just like you but admitted online that he was probably wrong after the housing data came out:
Gracious Humility

BOTTOM LINE:

exactly as you say, "the crowd is usually wrong" - couldn't have put it better.

and the crowd- all these "wall street economists", Greenspan & Co., homebuilder CEOs, are, as you correctly put, are wrong.

the astute reader of the bloomberg article on Thiel will realize that he is betting AGAINST the crowd, hence the referral to word "mimetic" in the article. ironically, he is, in fact, the embodiment of what you are attempting to articulate- which is in your words, that the "others are wrong".

yes he is young. but he is putting his $$$ where his mouth is. he called the NASDAQ bubble and cashed out before the collapse. he called the energy price inflation years ago and made even more money from that (he is a peak oil believer).

"the crowd is usually wrong, especially when the magazine covers post front page articles agreeing with the crowd (in this case the sky is falling in housing all over the nation)... this is uually near the exact BOTTOM of a market.."

remember, the word is MIMETIC, and Thiel is your guru. His entire Hedge Fund is founded on that concept. You have the right idea- just the wrong application of it.

MMAfia

Anonymous said...

No hemorrhoid I don't want you to break your lease. You are probably banking on that $500 security deposit for your retirement. Get back on the sauce, maybe it will improve your logic and decision making process.

You live in No Cal. You saw first hand a market that lost nearly 200,000 jobs at the peak of the dotcom bust and it had almost no impact on home prices in the Bay Area. Prices flattens and sales were slower, but it wasn't the end of the world. Why? Because there is a limited supply of land left to build on and the limited supply that is left takes an ungodly amount of time to get entitled. So you have a classic permanent condition of undersupply.

keith said...

man, the reic trolls are coming out of the woodwork now!

poor greg swann and ilk. nothing to do all day but visit housingpanic

too funny!

Anonymous said...

well well have to see

yes i did read that article on econobrowser- and i think that a great site much more unbiased and fact filled then here..hes not clling for the sky to fall , just that his view that things turned MAY be early

and im not so sure about this thiel HES betting on deflation in general not just housing


Futures are something IM very familiar with, having traded them institutional in the fx and institutional fixed income markets (both spot and derivatives ) for many years

so , IM not some amateur when it comes to markets either, not by a long shot

I used to make money by going against RETAIL, which usually bets with emotions the crowd newsmedia etc....

IN this case RETAIL is the housing bubble bloggers for the most part, not neccessarily you, you at least have a well thought out opinion

the traders job is to SEPERATE PERCEPTION FROM REALITY

now here, our views are different i think the perception of most (including grandma at this point ) is that housing is crashing- the reality in my opinion is that the supply /demand situation over the last 6months has changed -people are talking old news, nationall supply is averaging down while purchase apps going up- the perception of retail until very recently(just look at any tv ad)is that Rates are going UP- well the truth is theyve come down almost 1000bps recently in the 10 year which is definitely more bullish then bearish in potential housing demand vs. the perception

most retail is assuming that most medain housing is declining- again the reality is 140 + areas up vs 45 down -dont see this in the headlines,, overbearishness is leading to filtering tomatch peoples views

it sounds like the classic bottoming just like any other market

I might not be thiel but can assure you have a lot of experience in markets (and housing tooo,have owned and invested since my 20's over 20 years ago)

people are also generallizing the ca and az etc markets to unnecasiraily panic in their own hometown with totally different dynamics

and everyone is talking about the option arm thing leading to such massive foreclosures that the market everywhere will go down 40%- realit is foreclosure rates in the 1% range nationallY (even better then historical average) - so again retail perception different then reality, even if froeclosures went up 400% nationally (unlikely especially with the 10 yr at 4.45 % many option arm holders can now convert to fixed at better then expected rate) it still won tcrash market that dramatically

the housing futures isnt a maket id feel comfortable trading but I would definitely take the trade against the guy betting the 7.5% decline in Chicago by mid next year..

I think this looks more like a bottom then a top overall, and thsi si backed by current supply and demand trends/ overbearishness, and the bad news already out there ..

thats why i made the big bucks in the markets this is how many professional traders think, this market is no different

My prediction.. mr paypal wrong, i take his bet and predict the national medain price in 1 year will be flat to higher then now

and evertime i go to the supermarket and every magazines cover is the "great housing bust to come" how to protect myself, I feel even stronger were down to weak money retail sellers nationally

but i must say you make the reverse case very well( as opposed to most here who just rant about their neighbors option arm house in california as representative of the whole country)


cheeer, well see who's right over the coming year...

Anonymous said...

sorry 100bp decline not 1000, typing error, dont jump on it

Mozo Maz said...

I would have hunted for an image of Leslie Neilson waving his arms in front of the huge tanker truck fire... "Nothing to see here folks...."

MMAfia said...

"My prediction.. mr paypal wrong, i take his bet and predict the national medain price in 1 year will be flat to higher then now"

I do appreciate and respect your knowledge of the financial markets- I think we just have differing views.

I have a very macro-centric view, much like Thiel (his Hedge Fund strategy is just that, Macro, similar to Soros's Funds before).

The falling dollar vis-a-vis inflation will overshadow concerns of a recession and housing bust. The risks of the reserve status of the fiat dollar undergoing contagion crisis is too great.

A la Volker, Bernanke will be forced to protect it and actually raise rates. If the USD index ever falls below 80, look out- we could be seeing a similar situation to the late 70s. I doubt we'll see 20% interest rates like at the peak back then (and $800 gold in 1970's dollars- woah!), but we may very well see higher, not lower interest rate.

As such, I think the bond market would be a great short position going forward. And when it realizes that a similar situation to the late 70s might come to fruition, and that the Fed's #1 priority is to stabilize the global currency market and protect the dollar at the cost of a recession (as Volker did), Bernanke may very well be faced the Greenspan's conundrum. EXCEPT IN REVERSE. Yields will go sky high, and Bernanke won't be able to bring them back down.

There- now you have it. I just spilled the beans. The housing bust WILL occur, and it will do so due to two external factors:

1. foreign capital flight
2. fall in confidence of the USD as the reserve currency/petrodollar due to many factors, including incredible debt levels and trade imbalances along with China and Russia divesting from USDs into Euros and Gold

Once Bernanke is forced to raise rates to protect the dollar- POOF! that's when the real collapse will happen. All this going on right now is menusha. Appetizer stuff.

We shall see. Cheers.

MMAfia

Anonymous said...

fair enough- your knowledge is reasoned as well... i guess the million dollar issue is how much the drop in yield in the long end will spur housing demand, no one knows for sure

cheers...

and thanks for the civil discussion

Anonymous said...

that is if the yields STAY low, i know your talking short position....

Anonymous said...

Volker didn't care much about the value of the dollar, he cared exclusively about US domestic inflation, and killing it dead.

The dollar did respond and in the early days of floating currencies it went extremely high. And then after the Plaza Accords it plummeted.

So the foreign currency aspect will gyrate as it does. Bernanke's job doesn't have protecting the dollar on it. Just inflation.

Low dollar may (or may not) lead to more inflation. Less demand for dollar could happen if there's less demand for dollar based financial assets, that could be in a globally deflationary environment in which case Ben will gas up the helicopters.

Or there could be oil or commodity-linked price rises---if that feeds to US inflation then out come the screws.

Remember, the US isn't like Argentina, and doesn't have a huge debt denominated in Euros or Swiss Franks or Yuan.

MMAfia said...

Low dollar = higher prices for foreign goods and services imported into the country = inflationary pressure.

current trade deficits leading to mass liquidity in the form of exporting countries accumulating T-Bills has led to immense liquidity.

helicopter ben and his M3 hiding tactics cannot continue to infuse even more liquidity at current rates.

US is not argentina etc etc- it is the reserve currency based on fiat notes, and the currency oil is traded in. the risks are FAR greater if there were to be a dollar crisis. Fed has repeatedly said controlling inflation overrides economic growth. Guess where the inflation came from? Fed policies.

Globalization of markets have morphed inflation fighting and dollar protecting into one.

MMAfia

MMAfia said...

However,

"Volker didn't care much about the value of the dollar, he cared exclusively about US domestic inflation, and killing it dead."

This statement is completely CORRECT. It was INFLATION Volker was targeting.

Thanks for the clarification.

MMAfia

borkafatty said...

well, if your so smart, why dont you come back with the numbers for most metro areas.. supply is going down over the last couple of months...

DOnt simply show me phoenix or ca..

so your wrong, acting smart but simply not able to look at numbers for what they are...

OH and take a look at the mortgage application index for new purchases over the last month too ..its been going up

so smartass, whos in la la land

this is supposedly the worst market in history, because you listen to cnn too much, and the reality is nationally we are treading water at worst right now in most of the country

and if you come back using california or az as an example nationally your hopeless

LATEST HOUSING SLES MEDIAN DOWN ABOUT 3.5 %

OVER 140 AREAS MEDIANS GAINED IN VALUE WHILE 40 OR SO DECREASED

those are the facts, the sell housing play nationwide has come and gaone youll be the last to know cause you focus on anecdoted and the worst regions ( not the 140 or so that went up even now)

youd never pass your first interview as a trader at any major house if you cant look at hard facts instead of emotions bias etc

---------

I can sum that hole paragraph with one word..

"Sheep"

And dont preach to me smartass, what did you just land here obviously you dont have a clue...whatever confrontation is off my list...but thanks for the great laugh ..now go back to sleep at the wheel.Dolt

Anonymous said...

Im a sheep who has made millions over the years (in Real estate and elsewhere) and otherwise by looking at FACTS, not emotions of biased people in markets
perhaps you should listen to one whos actually been succesful in markets, not young bloggers with a chip on their shoulder


you are merely the SHEEP following EVERY magazine newscover and cnn reporter

they're talking old news, dolt- and using the summers numbers

you need to look forward in markets not backwards

you all think PHOENIX NEVADA and CA are representative of the world-self important syndrome

why dont you go take a peek at housingtracker.net and look at ACTUAL NUMBERS AND SEE HOW MANY AREAS ARE DECLINING IN SUPPLY VS. GAINING-ITS NOT EVEN CLOSE, SUPPLY IS SHRINKING, now if the market was going to go 40% lower nationally (not your neighbors overpriced phoenix house for the 15th time)- supply wouldnt be close to shrinking now, sellers would be running to sell to you or me, while "only" losing 3.5% on avg median

your the worst example of follow the crowd, AND WITOUT A DOUBT NEVER MADE A DIME TRADING IN YOUR LIFE

dont listen to a pro, listen to some internet keith guru

NATIONAL AVERAGE MEDIAN WILL BE HIGHER YES HIGHER in a year you heard it here, while idiots like you look for the national median to be don 35% - shows your lack of knowledge of probabilities

were you shorting the stock market at 9000 tooo??????

Anonymous said...

thats www.housingtracker.net- will show actuall supply numbers across the country--

but you8d rather rah rah behind Keith- and you call me a sheep, amateur

Anonymous said...

and I "landed" over here for some reasoned discussion, and amiable disagreement perhaps

and instead for the most part found negative bitter mouthpieces for any doom and gloom piece, and get attacked should I dare mention supply/demand or the actual facts that numbers are constantly changing, in this case less bearish

and youd all rather focus on anecdotes of the worst overpriced markets, rather then look at all areas and national numbers

Anonymous said...

and finally, I dont have a clue, but have been an officer in instutional trading for multiple primary dealers when i was younger ( i dont have to work anymore)- whats YOUR track record????

Anonymous said...

sorry for the long response and anger showing, but its hard to get attcked constantly for using statistics by emotional biased unmannered people here, if you dont agree with them 100%

Anonymous said...

mortgage applications up again this week (dec 6 release)

mortgage volume up 8.1%-

new purchase applications UP 4.9%

demand going UP not dramatically weakenining- they must be lying lol...

Anonymous said...

Realtors push their propaganda on the media. Of course its always good news. What other option is there? After all, what does news media know about the real estste market? They just report.

Its funny how there are two sides or opinions to the real estate market and where its going. People usually think they are experts, so how do I choose who to believe? Is my money on red or black?

Someone once said that not everyone can live in a million dollar house. Also, its time to get out (of an investment) when everyone is talking about it including the paper boy. Everybody wants to get rich. The mentality is buy a house, go on a luxury vacation for two weeks, come home and sell your house for a 30 percent gain. Repeat until desired wealth level is reached. Easy money.

If real estate keeps appreciating like some say it is, we will be all living in million dollar homes. Who needs to work for a living?

Dragasoni said...

I think the bottom, at the earliest, will be 2009. But no earlier than that. Bob Toll must be smoking some wacky tobaccie!

He's quickly starting to fall into the realm of David 'soft landing' Lerrahs' totally discredited reputation.

-Dragasoni-

Anonymous said...

Hey, to anonymous who's trying to tell HP'ers are loosers, read this.

"Executives cash in

Top executives sold $63.18 worth of stock in their companies for every $1 they bought in November -- the widest margin since 1987. Analysts said the numbers suggested that corporate chieftains -- including Microsoft's Bill Gates and Google's Eric Schmidt -- didn't share the investor confidence that has pushed markets to new heights. "They're pretty savvy market guys," said Wayne Wilbanks, chief investment officer of Wilbanks, Smith & Thomas Asset Management. "They see things are slowing down and they're like, ‘Man, I'm taking some money off the table.'" (Bloomberg)"

Anonymous said...

no the mentality of SOME in SOME areas was buy a house make thirty percent- those are exactly the overspecualted bubble areas like phoenix and california, full of amateur kno it all investors with no experience

point is the rest of the country wasnt like that for the most part

and the problem is that many look at these extreme examples and try to tell you that all houses are toxic and going under everywhere

this is simply not true if you look at the numbers , recent trends, and long term statistics...

dont be fooled by either some crazy inexperinced arizona realtor telling you to buy 5 houses with no cash flow or reserves, and at the same time dont be fooled by those here who are looking for the market to crash nationwide from here ( some thinking the national median down 30 or 40 percent in 2007) - more likely 1 year from now median is flat to higher nationally...look at the supply trends and new purchase app trends etc, and youll be more informed as to the picture nationwide