December 30, 2006

Home prices never fall, right? Wrong. Sarasota Florida home prices crash 18% (so far), How low will they go?


What. Goes. Up. Must. Come. Down.

Yeah, we've hit bottom already the MSM and REIC say.


Right. Sure thing. Believe that and I've got some swampland in Florida to sell you... Ah, those Gators...

Sarasota-Bradenton home sellers are cutting prices so aggressively that the median sales price was 18 percent lower this November than last, the biggest drop in the state.

Consequently, it seems, Sarasota-Bradenton home sales were up by 2 percent from a year ago, the best gain in the state.

Real estate pros said the numbers indicate the market is responding to price reductions. Stubborn sellers are budging, even if it means taking a financial hit. And buyers are deciding to buy rather than bet that prices will fall even more.

The numbers reflect "a significant uptick in showing activity and sales since the November elections as buyers gained the confidence to take action and sellers are willing to seriously consider reasonable offers rather than holding out for mid-2005 prices," said Chad Roffers, president of Sarasota's Sky Sotheby's International Realty.Roffers said the Sarasota-Bradenton market "hit the wall" earlier than other parts of Florida.

"Based on what I am hearing from my peers who run other markets for Sotheby's, we are leading the pack in emerging from what will have been an 18-month-long slump," Roffers said.

25 comments:

Anonymous said...

Go Bucs!

Anonymous said...

That's the lazy American oblivious to the rest of the world holding a lien on his future...

Anonymous said...

And buyers are deciding to buy rather than bet that prices will fall even more.

Prices skyrocket to the moon over 5 years, drop 18% which means seller still makes out very well, and the sheeple still don't understand the falling knife concept. But they will!

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Home resales decline in state
Orlando also sees drop but sales in other parts of U.S. post increase


Jerry W. Jackson | Sentinel Staff Writer
Posted December 29, 2006


Existing-home sales reports gave mixed signals in November, with modest sales growth nationwide but ongoing double-digit declines in Florida and Metro Orlando.

Florida's single-family existing-home sales dipped again last month and the median sales price slipped 3 percent, the Florida Association of Realtors reported Thursday.

A separate report by the National Association of Realtors showed a slight rebound in home sales nationwide, adding to October's gains and suggesting a turn in the market.

But real estate analyst Mike Larson, with Weiss Research Inc. in Jupiter in South Florida, said he expects more weakness ahead, and more growth in the inventory stockpile.

"I think a lot of people in the industry are underestimating the duration of this slump," Larson said. "There's just a mountain of homes for sale out there."

The nation's existing-home inventory levels fell 1 percent to 3.82 million in November, and that sparked some industry speculation that the decline was a sign the housing slowdown could be nearing an end. The median existing-home price, including condos, for units sold in November was $218,000, down 3.1 percent from a year earlier.

But Larson said the growth in existing-home inventory has been so huge that the modest 1 percent drop is unimpressive.

"To me it doesn't look like much of a dent," he said. He said he expects that after Jan. 1 more homes will be added to Multiple Listing Services in Florida and nationally as sellers who dropped listings within the past year make another effort to sell in the declining market.

The 11,912 homes that sold statewide in November was down 30 percent from November 2005, and about 1,000 fewer homes than changed hands in October, according to the preliminary survey totals. The median price -- half sold for less and half for more -- was $242,500, down from $250,400 a year ago.

The weakest metro area was Naples, with a 45 percent plunge in sales and the median falling 13 percent to $415,200. Metro Orlando sales also were weaker than the statewide average, down 36 percent to 1,705 homes sold. The median price rose 4 percent to $263,600, for the four-county area -- Orange, Seminole, Lake and Osceola.

Earlier this month, the Orlando Regional Realtor Association reported that the Orlando area is closing in on its second-best year on record, though resales in the core Orlando market -- mainly Orange and Seminole counties -- fell 34 percent in November from a year earlier.

Nationally, total existing-home sales, including condos, rose 0.6 percent in November to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.28 million from 6.24 million in October. But that was still 10.7 percent below the 7.03 million unit annual pace in November 2005.

A report on new-home sales released Wednesday also showed strength in November, with sales rising 3.4 percent from October, though sales in the South were still down for the month. New-home sales in the Orlando market also remain sluggish, despite extensive incentives and giveaways.

"It's difficult to sell an existing home because of all the competition from new home builders," said Dean Palombi, a broker who recently opened his own six-person real estate sales agency, Palombi Realty, in east Orlando, with his wife, Janet. "But I think we will see more first-quarter sales. Not a fast rebound, but steady improvement."

Palombi said the area he specializes in -- Stoneybrook, Eastwood, Waterford Lakes and Avalon -- probably has at least 1,000 homes for sale within five miles. But most sellers, he said, either will not or cannot slash their prices.

"Part of the reason is that a lot of people went in and financed at 90 percent and they can't just give it away for 20 percent less." Most sellers, he said, will hold a home on the market for at least six or seven months, knowing they face tough competition, but also realizing that any home they may be interested in buying also is not likely to be heavily discounted.

"Overall, this industry is strong, though, and Florida has a great future," said Palombi, who moved to Florida from New Jersey five years ago.

Jerry W. Jackson can be reached at jwjackson@orlandosentinel.com or 407-420-5721.

Anonymous said...

Who says prices never fall? Prices do fall....for a while then get right back up. There is no 3 year period post-WW2 where median prices fell nationally. That's a 60 year track record that you can't just ignore.

Ahh but the Depression!! What about it? In pre-GD there was no FDIC, no SEC, no Social Security, no welfare net, barely any labor laws. The slightest economic tremor could send the country into a severe recession.

You can't compare 2007 to 1929.

Anonymous said...

Stupid people make themselves think they're smart by using words like sheeple.

"Prices skyrocket to the moon over 5 years, drop 18% which means seller still makes out very well, and the sheeple still don't understand the falling knife concept. But they will!"

Anonymous said...

"And buyers are deciding to buy rather than bet that prices will fall even more."

Completely nonsensical statement. Anyone who is aware of the issues would wait. After all, how hard is it to wait for a month for a 3% discount? And then another, another until the bottom shows up?

Anyone buying now is either ignorant or pussy whipped.

bozonian said...

It's very bad to compare 1929 with 2006, but it is valid to compare 2006 with the late 70s. Much of the financial landscape is the same except for the now omnipresence of home computers which make buying and selling stocks and bonds much easier and more volatile.

If Ben loses control of inflation, Oh boy. We are in uncharted territory now people.

Anonymous said...

The number of properties on the market in Sarasota County is top secret. Last September the reported numbers were 11,511 properties in MLS (98 week supply of houses, and 151 week supply of condos). About half of the houses have septic tanks and well water - kind of primitive (and something I never saw in Southern California).
About half of the streets have no sidewalks; even in expensive communities, the streets have sidewalks only on one side). The property taxes are high, and, in most of the communities, there are additional taxes called CDD (regarded by many owners as an attempt by the builders to squeeze more money).
In today's Venice Gondolier (venicegondolier.com) there is an article about Stonybrook, where the builder is trying to get an additional $6.6 million as CDD "fees" from the owners.
If there are 500 houses (I think there are fewer), the owner of each house has to pay an additional $13,000 - rather long time after they bought the houses.
The possibility of CDD fees/taxes is mentioned in the "fine" print, and, at the time of purchase, many buyers/owners consider they were given incorrect information/answers.

Then, the builders love to try to overcharge the "snowbirds" (some of them even from Canada).

A few years ago, Sarasota was designated as one of the top 10 places in the U.S.
Perhaps, some money exchanged hands.
A very small part of the town of Sarasota is nice, but most of the rest of the county (that includes several other towns) are rather primitive (given the lack of sewers and city water).
In many places, the mail is delivered by private citizens for some dollars/hours.

If you want to buy in Sarasota County, watch out - some builders will try to cheat you in other ways; for instance, houses built in North Port (less expensive) are presented as being located in Venice.

Also, in many locations, many houses are built in swamp areas, likely to be flooded in case of hurricanes.
The Sarasota housing is really a house of cards.

Anonymous said...

People people!

During the late 80's my parents house in West Los Angeles was appraised at 750,000. 5 years later in the early 90's it was appraised at 435,000.

That's a 42% loss. It's a fact that housing prices in selected markets can go down. If they'd sold at 750k, they'd have made 267,000 dollars. They could have then bought that house back for 435,000 and ended up with the house AND 267,000 dollars (factoring in a 6% realtor fee). That's like, a no-brainer on why "buying and holding real estate through low markets" is financially stupid.

That bubble was tiny compared to this one. My friends, we are on the verge of a deluge the likes this world has never seen except during world and civil wars.

Anonymous said...

Vote: Is worst over for housing?

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/16381406/

Anonymous said...

WHAT FREAKING INFLATION??

Seriously you people are living in a different galaxy than me. Aside from housing can you point to anything that rose in price significantly in 2006?

And I don't mean a story about your you cousin used to pay $4.39 for a burger at Joe's Burger Shack and now that burger costs $5.69. I mean national price increases.

-----------------------------------

If Ben loses control of inflation, Oh boy. We are in uncharted territory now people.

Anonymous said...

"Also, in many locations, many houses are built in swamp areas, likely to be flooded in case of hurricanes."

Uhm isn't the whole state a swamp area?

"are rather primitive (given the lack of sewers and city water).
In many places, the mail is delivered by private citizens for some dollars/hours."

This is not evidence of primitive areas you dolt. That is the direction the USPS is going all over the country, independent carrier model. Did you know that 90% of UPS drivers are independent contractors too? My goodness you must live in a ghetto area is anyone sends a package via UPS!!!

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

I love eating pussy myself.

Anonymous said...

Which idiots think there is no inflation? What is the price of gasoline? Paper towels? Bread? Milk?

The only things going down in price are electronics. that's because they're now being made with cheaper labor in China instead of Taiwan and Korea. Where will they find cheaper labor than China?


The Realtrolls claim home prices will rise, rents will rise, we all know commodities and raw materials prices are rising. Yet there's no inflation?

Maybe we shouldn't confuse the Realtrolls with math and logic.

Anonymous said...

Everything has increased in price but many times it is hidden. Many consumer products are now slightly smaller by weight or volume to hide the inflation.

Example: A package of spaghetti that was 380 grams for $1.19 two years ago. Now it is 360 grams for $1.39. The actual package size looks about the same to the customer.

To the consumer it does not look like it has increased in price all that much, but it has.

Anonymous said...

Everything has increased in price but many times it is hidden. Many consumer products are now slightly smaller by weight or volume to hide the inflation.
================================
Youve never heard of the "hedonic Index"? Thats a beauty of a fraud.

sane person said...

Friend,

Only people that notice such things are minimum wage workers where even the slightest increase in the cost of milk or bread is noticed. If you offered me $10 Million dollars on the spot to tell you how much bread or paper towels cost I couldn't tell you since I a) seldom buy groceries and b)when I do I don't look at prices

See I make enough money that if paper towels go up in price by 10% I don't notice or care.

I do know however that my mortgage payment is the same this year, was the same last year, the year before, the year before that and will be the same for the next 20 years. If paper towels cost an extra $0.50...whoop-dee-fuck!!

-------------------------------------

Which idiots think there is no inflation? What is the price of gasoline? Paper towels? Bread? Milk?

Anonymous said...

Gasoline costs the same today as it did this time last year.

See below

http://gasbuddy.com/gb_retail_
price_chart.aspx?time=24

Anonymous said...

What i love is buying generic brands because their cheaper....i get them home, try it out, and learn that their cheaper for a reason!
Crap quality!!!!!

Anonymous said...

I like HP. I like to keep tabs on what the extremists are thinking/doing. If blogs were around back then, who knows, the OKC bombing may have been prevented.

All I can hope for is that the FBI is watching, taking notes and recording IP addresses.

sk said...

.

sk said...

.

keith said...

..