Nah, there was no housing bubble. Yup, now would be a great time to buy.
Yeah, right.
Interest only option ARM loans + massive leverage + prices in freefall = financial devastation in San Diego.
Housing prices hit by biggest drop on record
SAN DIEGO – San Diego County housing prices slipped 6.9 percent last month, the biggest year-over-year drop on record, DataQuick Information Systems reported Tuesday.
The median price stood at $482,000, the same as in August, but off $36,000 from November 2005's $518,000, the all-time record. The October median was $485,000.
Single-family resale homes, representing just less than half the market, rose $5,000 from October to November to $540,000 but were off 4.4 percent from year-ago levels and substantially behind the record of $569,500 set in May
.
Resale condos were down $24,000 from October to $375,000, representing a 5 percent drop from a year ago.
December 14, 2006
FLASH: San Diego house prices crash by largest amount in history
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52 comments:
As a long time SD renter, all i can say is AWESOME!! and finally. I feel bad for all my friends that bought houses a year ago and will not be able to refinance an underwater loan..but then again, if it weren't for people like them the prices wouldn't have gone through the roof in the first place.
this is SAN Diego though, and its simply not reasonable to equate the worst overpriced areas ( ie in terms of price/wages and recent overspecualtion to the WHOLE country ,, thats what you guys are missing
SOME areas have been overvalued,, others are fine!!
Maybe you should say there is a BUBBLE in all those places everyoine knows about like CA - but dont overgeneralize,, new purchase applications are now at 11 month high and supply is shrinking in most areas- this doesnt lead one to believe the whole country is california or phoenix
Californians have always been crazy and flashy (so many tried to max out on their homes and drive flashy cars to show they "made it")- so does it surpise anyone that this type of area (same with scottsdale /phoenix) are subject to booms and busts(the 40k a year millionaire syndrome)
but I would agree with the above poster that this is not reflective of the whole country, and youd be mistaken to use ca as proff of the whole housing market from here, thats simply narrow minded...
poster number 1--
sorry ,, dont pretend to feel bad for others that bought houses there,, you sound absolutely gleeful (your first sentence said awesome)
so it sounds like there was some anger there, and you are happy to have revenge, lol
Just sent a week with my inlaws who live in Fallbrook North San Diego. Talk about living in another universe. They own a POS shack and have taken money out twice with HELOCs and still haven't done any remodeling. The big plan is to build (add) 2400sqft to their house, sell it and move out of CA. They own all the new toys and now have 3 travel trailers in the back yard with family in 2 of them and still no work started Nice people, but no clue how deep they are in it. Its like watching a train wreck
I predicted last June that yoy declines would be seen by November, so did many others. I predict foreclosures out the wazoo for the next 2+ years. I further predict that gasoline will hit $5/gal before the next election.
This post is SO wrong!
I am a Realtor(sm) and I can definately TELL you that the newspaper article is substantially misleading! Prices have NOT FALLEN it is only the soft landing we have been predicting for quite some time.
If any of you knew anything about statistics what you would see is that thi is not a decrease, but a reduction in therate of increase. What does this mean? It means that now is the perfect time to buy. Why? Simple supply and demand. There is a temporarily large number of wonderful properties available and the rate of increase in prices has temporarily slowed. Why?
Month End Seasonality.
Buy before you are priced out of the market. My company can illustrate many strategies that will let you own investment quality properties for no money down. In six months you can re-finance and take out a huge amount of equity with which you can purchase a rental property that will generate enough positive cash flow to cover both of your notes.
Buy now before you are forever priced out of property ownership.
Call me today: (916) 595-9632
that last posting is a joke, right?
I live here in San Diego, Carlsbad to be exact and the real estate market has died and is getting very bad. Prices are dropping like rocks and they are still not moving! Folks are starting to realize that they are very possibly screwed!!!!
Sadly, we still have a long way down to go.
There will be no soft landing and to those that think that a California RE crash will not effect the rest of the country, boy are you in for a surprise. The folks here have sucked billions upon billions out of these POS homes and this will effect the rest of this country in a very bad way.
Just one thing... many of you may be missing, and that is if the larger metropolitan areas crash, than the economy will crash. This will roll out to the smaller areas within the country, because a recession will hurt the smaller towns more than it will hurt the cities. There are always jobs to be found in the cities, albeit for less money. In small towns, there literally might not be a job for some people. You really have to look at the big picture. If this crash continues, it will hurt all areas.
Is the (916) number a phone number to a government official? That's Sac town (Sacramento) afterall and they are all getting totally f**ked, as we speak. Super crash going on there, too.
First I won't believe that unless it is adjusted for inflation from the last bust.
Second, if you didn't buy or sell in 2005 what does these statistics mean? I mean if you bought in say 2000, 2001,2002,2003,2004 and didn't refi (which I'm sure a lot didn't) where does that leave you? I imagine most are still in the black....for now.
There have been posts here about RECORD crash in Pheonix or RECORD number of listings and then when adjusted for population or inflation the numbers just don't look as bad. I posted one article that showed that in Phoenix and no one commented nor did they comment on the fact that during the so called meltdown over 57,000 homes sold in 2006, still one of the best for the record books .
I agree with ANONYMOUS who said, "If any of you knew anything about statistics what you would see is that thi is not a decrease, but a reduction in the rate of increase."
Just like any mania, stocks, tulips, beeney babies, silver, gold, houses, people who pay premiums to be the first to own a computer game or new car model, you can't use the last sells statistics and the correction to reflect the entire market.
I do believe we are at a cross road. I do believe home prices will fall significantly even in less bubblicous markets if interest rates climb significantly, inverse square law! I do believe inflation will increase and wages will start to increase and the dollar will devalue more sharply.
I do believe the risks of war and oil shock are still a serious possibility to wreck the entire world economy. I believe Europe and England specifically are poised for some serious economic hurt as well, especially with home prices being double to triple ours. If people flee the dollar and the Euro what is left to invest in?
All being said, balance, caution, and the realization that we just don't know the day and the hour or the trend fully yet. The storm is gathering but for those who live is storm belts can attest, sometimes the darkest skies dissipate and some serious storms develope so quick to catch people off guard, so too with the current crisis.
Storm may fizzle for now, some unexpected event will occur, the skies will clear. One thing for sure is storms are part of nature and if not today, someday.
Great read and very entertaining
http://tinyurl.com/yfvouj
San Diego has nice weather, probably the best in the country, but it's not worth the price of living here.
I pay $2200 per month for a 2bdrm/2 bath/2 garage place that's 1000 square feet only 2 miles from where I work.
A house in this area would be $6000 per month in PITI with a 25% down payment on a 30 year fixed loan at 5.75%! How many want to come live here?
If my job was not here, I would have moved already.
What all these pro market, buy now before it's too-later's are missing are the fundamentals: the average home saving rate is right where we were in 1933 -- the worst year of the depression. Most people are up to their eyeballs in one form of debt or another. Interest rates are set by treasury purchases. How much longer is our debt going to be attractive at the rate we're going economically? It just doesn't ad up kids.
Here in Mass foreclosures are up 300%
My aunt who had to refi her house cause her HELOC was killing her, she had a 30 year fixed at 5.25 and the HELOC. She came over 2 weeks ago to ask my opinion of which she went 380 degrees the other way. This is why i was so upset yesterday, she ended up in one of those Balloon Payment Ajustable rate Mortgages, at 7.9% ajust in 08.
Yes she fucked up bigtime..why ask advice and then do the opposite?????????
She tells my mother that she is in a fixed rate 30 year..well the docs dont lie..obviously she did not read her paper work..screwed bigtime....And to chauncy, I am no bleeding heart libral or a democrat i would not lower myself to those standards ..just someone who gives a fuck..oh and a little secret to you..120k you are middleclass.
foxwoodlief,
I just lost all respect for you. I live in S Cal. and I can tell you if you lived here, too... You would know that it has nothing to do with stats. You can manipulate tham all you want, and trust me all parties do. People are asking much less for their homes than they did in 2005. People are paying much less to purchase a home. 6.9% is only the beginning. If you bought a house in 2005 or 2006, you are f**cked, in the short term. In the long term, all prices go up. If you keep your job, you will be fine. Had you just waited, you could have gotten in for a lot cheaper and this will continue to be the trend, at least through 2007.
well you bring up a good point ,, but debt as a percent of GDP is actually pretty low by historic standards, just food for thought
and who said Im pro market buy anything before its too late..
Im merely more reasoned then most here and say you cant overgeneralize say california, and say every home is overpriced- some are some arent in any market-
and just bringing up the fact that the supply/demand numbers in the market are much more bullish in housing lately then they wer earlier in the year
so would I personally ever buy some investor subdivision in phoenix for 600,000 where there is plenty of land to still build and the average income is 50k and there is overspeculation--NO if i was concerned about valuationand safety
BUT there are tons of other properties and homes across the country which arent so out of whack, and probably will NOT be lower in pricew a year from now,especially if i can negotitate well while most are scared cause they hear about CA and mistakenly assume that its the same everywher in terms of wages/price etc..
good luck
who says you have to buy in s. CA, the country is so much biger then this- and the situation in terms of overspecualtion and price jumps, wages/price etc, is much more favororable in most of the rest of the country
why do peopl in CA so self important- hello the world doesnt revolve around you guys much of the rest of the country is FINE and werent flashy california people who live above their means cause the neighbors do... really...
"Thats Hot"
Whether you like it or not, California and other highly dense metro areas affect the property costs in other smaller areas. When people made a bunch of money on their homes in the Cal metro areas, they sold and moved to Arizona, Oregon, etc. It's why people get so pissed at people from Cal, because they move to other areas and run up the prices of those homes where they move. Or they HELOC and buy investment property, thereby running up the prices in areas where they purchase investment property. It's simply the flow of money. When Cal crashes, other areas will be affected. Hey, it will probably be the best thing that ever happened to most people in those towns that are young and want to buy a home. The music had to stop sometime and it stops first in the metro areas and the silence will be heard across most small towns, eventually.
Yup San Diego homeowners are screwed. They bought for $300K in 2003. In 2005 it was worth $600K. Now in 2006 it is only worth 95% or $570K. Maye if things get really bad in 2007 it will be worth only $500K.
OUCH!!! OUCH!!! OUCH!!
Borkafatty...you're hot...and I love the Mogambo Guru...he's super hot!!! and super funny.
we do not believe every single house in country is going to drop 40% in value.
Uhm so what this article says is the first half of 2006 ****WAS**** bad compared to 2005. But the second half is holding steady so far.
Why the preoccupation with November 2005 numbers?
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ARTICLE SAYS:
The median price stood at $482,000, the same as in August, but off $36,000 from November 2005's $518,000, the all-time record. The October median was $485,000.
Single-family resale homes, representing just less than half the market, rose $5,000 from October to November to $540,000 but were off 4.4 percent from year-ago levels and substantially behind the record of $569,500 set in May
Why the preoccupation with November 2005 numbers?
you are a realtor arent you? I can sence it.
"Telling anecdotes" do not constitute proof. The bottom line remains: this is a classic financial bubble, not supported by the fundamentals and it will end badly for many, many people. Make sure you are ready for it.
"Telling anecdotes" do not constitute proof. The bottom line remains: this is a classic financial bubble, not supported by the fundamentals and it will end badly for many, many people. Make sure you are ready for it.
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Finally someone with logic to see what is in front of them.
I am not a realtor. Believe it or not, even non-realtors think you people are crazy and paranoid.
How about responding to my question/comment instead of a personal baseless attack?
The question was why focus on November 2005 numbers and not on August 2006 numbers which are far more relevant as to what WILL HAPPEN as opposed to what HAS HAPPENED.
(916) 595-9632
That is the number for Casey Serin, aka bubbleboy. Google it.
Either that was a hilarious poke at him, or a historic possible last pre-suicide post by Casey.
Save for the grandkids!
Anonymous said...
foxwoodlief,
I just lost all respect for you. I live in S Cal. and I can tell you if you lived here, too... You would know that it has nothing to do with stats.
Did you read what I said? We need statistics that are adjusted to population growth, inflation etc and I said if the price has fallen, as this tag says, then what I basically asked was "is the glass half full or half empty." If Prices have fallen from 2005 levels what does that mean for people who bought prior to 2005? Not all homes in SD were bought or refinanced in 2005. If people buy gold or stocks and average their price over the long term does it matter than they bought some gold at say $800 an ounce and some at $350? If their average cost were say $520 and the current market is $620 and last year it was $720 do we focus on the $100 dollar drop from 2005 or the increased value of $100 over the average cost?
Don't get me wrong, I think the California housing market has been for 30 years the worst thing for America. California's housing bubble has fueled bubbles in other areas. Californians export their housing inflation to other areas. Californians reaped great rewards at the expense of other Californians and Americans and then a lot ran with the cash to Seattle or Phoenix or Austin or Kansas city leaving a wreck behind and they just think they were smarter than the rest of us.
I don't presume to speak for SD as I don't and wouldn't live there. I can speak for Phoenix as I lived there and I am going back out there next week to see first hand what changes have taken place in the marketplace. I believe the real estate industrial complex to have destroyed part of the quality of life in Phoenix by overbuilding and spreading like cancer across the farm fields and desert. By any measure 60,000 houses a year being built in any city is obscene. Still, in a metro area of 4,000,000 what is a normal market? I'd say maybe 30,000 houses a year.
Part of the problem is that greed took over. You'd think supply and demand meant that if 60,000 houses were being built then the competition would drive prices down, not up, but then speculative greed kicked in and we all know that at least 30% of those housing permits were speculation so the builders shot themselves in the foot for short term gain.
Perspective and facts need balance and interpetation. Saying my parent's bought a house in 1962 for $17,000 means nothing if not adjusted for inflation into dollar terms someone in 2006 can understand.
I can quote the bible, "It is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than enter the kingdom of heaven." But what does that mean? I've heard so many preachers teach that only a miracle can put a came through the eye of a needle because they think of a sewing needle. The eye of a needle is an archway. The camel has to be unloaded of his baggage, get down on its knees and crawl through and the gate so a rich man needs to unburden himself of his wealth (not necessarily get rid of it just as the load on the camel isn't disposed of) and to humble himself, get on his knees, and then he can enter.
The same is true with all the issues we debate. Put it in context!
I see Chauncy and other annonymous posters catch the drift of the article and ask, "Why focus just on 2005 numbers?" They also catch the point of I bought in 2000 for $199,000 and in 2005 the house went up to $600,00 and now it is only selling for $550,000 so we are all screwed...not yet. Even if the bozo took out $150,000 in equity, and that is a lot of equity, and owed $350,000, he isn't screwed until the price drops to say $380,000 at which point I imagine he'd have to bring money to the table to bail.
Just like my friends who still own in Phoenix, a place so many think is ground zero, deluded as they are that their values haven't fallen, the fact that they are not selling and that they own less than they paid for them in 2001 (or earlier as most of them have lived in Phoenix for a long time) means that if they owe $180,000 for a house they could have sold in 2005 for $425,000 until the price drops below $200,000 are they screwed yet? And to note, at the $180,000 price that is $40,000 less than they paid in 2001.
Looks like we're having the 'empirical v. anecdotal' data debate again. Anecdotal accounts of FB in-laws and neighbours are much more fun than analysis of empirical data such as sales and inventories over a specific time period. But it's only empirical data that has any value, and even then it's limited.
Mind you, the obsession over Nov, 2005 numbers may be because it is now mid-December and there is value in comparing year over year, rather than August to November of the same year - seasonal adjustment makes everything a little less suspect.
Also, Foxwoodlief, though I may not respond to your posts I am always reading and thinking. I agree that we haven't really seen much yet. Sometimes it seems like we're perpetually 'waiting for godot'.
I believe that this is a bubble more than I believe that we are necessarily headed for a correction. The correction should have happened already.
Still, Swann, Lereah and a lot of the MSM and REIC are spreading a lot of misinformation and someone needs to counter it.
But it's only empirical data that has any value, and even then it's limited.
That would be true if anyone produced numbers that were reliable. The government and the NAR's numbers on everything from homeownership rates to median house prices are pure fiction. They are so bad that one has to conclude that they are purposely misleading people. About the only statistics I believe are the foreclosure numbers from Realtytrac, et al.
Buzz saw, I agree. That's why I saw 'even then it's limited'. Even empirical data must be selected wisely. I wouldn't listen to the NAR or any state association of realtors such as the Massachusetts Association of Realtors. It helps if you know that the source is objective and independent, like Realtytrac and the Warren Group.
San Diego is screwed. If I recall, the average salary is around 50K. In Austin, the average salary is around 50K. Austin has higher taxes but comparable properties are 1 million + in San Diego. I guess they call it the sunshine tax. Given the size of a loan needed for a first time home buyer, I wonder what place has the higher risk?
To make matters worse, while the politicians were screaming about affordable houses, they converted nearly every apartment complex in Carmel Valley for sale. Even the place I was in at the time, which was approved initially by the city council to benefit the elderly, was converted -- they kicked the elderly out when the initial time period of two years expired after construction was complete. ( they raised the rent too ) I even recall tenets going around to help a poor old man who could afford to rent a UHaul to Pennsylvania -- let alone drive it -- where his one last relative lived. Town Home prices were going for 585K for a 1400 sq foot apartment ( renamed town home from apartement )
Here is where the story gets even funnier with the condo conversion. The tenants wanted the conversion. So, some of the tenants got an investor and bought the complex out. The original owner then marked up most of the equity in his sale. Now the select tenants who wanted the deal and investor cannot unload the apartments. Talk about greed! Also, they were ripping out everything and putting in new counter tops etc. While they were upgrading they kicked two thirds of their renters out. I bet they want the renters back now -- hey we upgraded! : 0
Not only did I leave but I was forced to leave. My wagon wheel broke in Austin. Screw them. See em at the bottom. By the way, clean up the beaches too from the overpopulation.
One more anectode that proves nothing
I just checked houses in Huntington Beach -- starting at $575k -- down from $600k -- a 4+% drop.
Thanks Paul E. Math. Trying to figure out what is going on sometimes is as hard as deciphering Nostradamus.
Fearful? I think most of us on HP are. Sure of where we are headed? Some think they have it nailed in the bag. Me, holding my breath.
So many contradictory signs. I'm just glad I don't live in California or Miami. On one level the fundamentals seem so wrong and then I look around where I live and don't see any massive meltdown.
The old chicken or the egg syndrome. Housing like credit card debt is hard to figure out. Lots of people only care about making the minimum payment and never get out of debt. I guess as long as people can struggle, juggle, to pay the bills and the rent they will.
We talk a lot about people's mortgage amounts, little about their payments, but it is the renter I feel bad about. A person who buys has some responsibility or control over what he purchases. A renter is at the mercy of the market and when I see so many people paying $800-$1000 for a small 2 bedroom apartment knowing most of them probably make less than $40,000 I feel bad.
I believe a lot of renters pay more of their income for rent than a lot of home owners pay for a larger home.
A friend took a temp job in San Diego in 2004 and luckily had her rent picked up by the agency, $1650 a month for a one bedroom apartment furnished (cheaply) and she was responsible for utilities. Her job paid her $3 an hour more than she'd have made in Phoenix with benefits (the agency she had none), the only thing in her favour though taxable was the free rent. She left after nine months because she said she couldn't afford to live there.
She was making $28 an hour and someone else paid her rent so if she had a hard time living how do all those people with large mortages? Two people making $25-30 an hour earn well over $100,000 a year and you live like a someone in Phoenix earning $60,000 with two incomes?
I'm amazed at what people are willing to pay just to live in a certain location.
It means that now is the perfect time to buy. Why? Simple supply and demand.
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AAAAAAAAA HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Tell your clients to lower their prices then!
I warned everyone back in late 2004 and early 2005 about this inevitable, pending and soon to be crisis-level economic disaster, preparing to unfold in the next 2 to 5 years. I wrote for the North County Homes News and also, as a Realtor, took many a lashing from my peers and shameful agents trying to turn a blind eye to what I foretold in print. I was finally asked to change my storyline or stop publishing. I sold my home in 2004, pulled up my roots and left SoCal and now actually have started ‘Living’ a much better style of life in paradise(No, I’m not telling you where. I’d like to keep it that way.)
All that being said, the situation leading up to the conditions of the housing markets in areas like San Diego County and other once highly sought after investment Mecca’s is quite unlike anytime in recent history. So, consequently, anyone’s historical figures can only be applied for about 20% of the current market conditions. It’s the other 80% of future market conditions that you will soon find unmanageable.
Between 2003 and the end of 2005, approximately 80,000 single family residences and 45,000 condo’s were sold in San Diego County. During this time, approximately 76-84% of all loans were issued as ARM’s(adjustable rate mortgages). These loans were issued to at least 60% subprime buyers that barely met the loose policies of the predatory lender’s policies. Many of you have read that in San Diego County alone, foreclosures are up some 300% over last year. Albeit, last years numbers were historically low, however, now these loans are just becoming due. Over the next 2 years alone, approximately 45% of these risky mortgages will be adjusting to the new rates. When these folks find themselves unable to pay their debt, unable to refinance and unable to sell in a flooded market, it simply equates to an additional 25,000 homes on the market with sellers willing to sell at any price to get out from under it.
You do not have to be an economist to understand that with ANY commodity, be it a widget or housing, oversupply will ALWAYS drive down prices until they meet demand. This Spring will bring together one of the greatest supplies in SoCal history.
Everyone that pulled their house off the market for the Holidays combined with the already bloated market, add that to the normal people that have to sell and move to a new place for whatever reason(the normal sellers at Springtime) and the hundreds, if not thousands trying to avoid foreclosure or can’t afford their payments, it’s going to get very ugly.
Now, for the even uglier punch. I predict that the interest rate will be closer to 7.5-8% by the end of next year furthering eroding prices and affordability. By the way, even the overwhelmingly optimistic Association of Realtors, which I am a member, are predicting 7% interest rate by year’s end 2007.
BS you say. No way? Let’s make things perfectly clear. It is estimated that somewhere around 60% of sub-prime ARMs issued since 2004 had fixed interest rates for two to three years. Figuring, in the trillions of dollars mind you, as these loans re-adjust to new, higher rates, foreclosure rates will be in the trillions of dollars. Lending companies will have to recoup these losses somehow. Lenders set the interest rate, not the Fed. If the Fed set mortgage rates, we’d be up to 8+% now. So, as lenders try to recoup losses, they will be forced to increase interest rates and fees. You will see a strong tightening of credit, large down payment requirements and a more disciplined policy stature. I further believe that the new Congress will be stepping in to rid the mortgage system of their risky loan policies and corruption that has been running rampant.
That will make it much easier for a family making $75,000 a year afford an $800,000 mortgage, as well as coming up with the $160,000 for the down payment.
There has been no time in history, where lending practices were so extremely lax, sloppy and unprofessional. And where so many at once became overnight, uneducated real estate investors. Where so many threw caution to the wind and decided to get a little risky. This time the cycle will be as many in the past, 2, 3, maybe 5 years of downturn.
But mark my words, we are only in the beginning of this cycle, and YES, once we hit bottom again, as always has been, prices will appreciate again.
That's the point, exactly. S. California is so immensly overpriced that it will continue to fall for quite sometime. It rose for the last 5 years due to speculative demand. Now that it is dropping (yes, by 6.8% yoy in SD) the mania is over. That's why it is so huge that it has dropped yoy, and so important to those that live here, for better or worse. And for you to say that it's not a big deal, essentially means that you just don't get it... Is everyone f**ked? No. But we did'nt need your comments to figure that out. People that bought years ago, of course, will be just fine. Of course, as long as they keep their job in a recession. If they might not, they better start doing some saving. That's all, people ...everyone should be eyeing this play out, because everyone will know someone who had their finances ruined.
BUT there are tons of other properties and homes across the country which arent so out of whack, and probably will NOT be lower in pricew a year from now,especially if i can negotitate well while most are scared cause they hear about CA and mistakenly assume that its the same everywher in terms of wages/price etc..
good luck
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Chicago has 21,000+ properties in some sort of forclosure right now on realtytrac.com.
Chicago has 18,000+ condos for sale right now on reator.com.
There are 6 crains in the South Loop skyline building more high rise condo buildings.
And the ARMs havn't popped yet.
Bubble on Bubblers
If people buy gold or stocks and average their price over the long term does it matter than they bought some gold at say $800 an ounce and some at $350? If their average cost were say $520 and the current market is $620 and last year it was $720 do we focus on the $100 dollar drop from 2005 or the increased value of $100 over the average cost?
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Maybe they are concerned that the downward trend will continue down past the $300 level, eh?
We talk a lot about people's mortgage amounts, little about their payments, but it is the renter I feel bad about. A person who buys has some responsibility or control over what he purchases. A renter is at the mercy of the market and when I see so many people paying $800-$1000 for a small 2 bedroom apartment knowing most of them probably make less than $40,000 I feel bad.
I believe a lot of renters pay more of their income for rent than a lot of home owners pay for a larger home.
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Don't feel bad for me, pal. My rent is only 1000 for a 2 bed 1 bth 1 gar. Sounds like alot, huh? To have an equal condo, the cheapest would be 2x my rent, and that would be in a not as nice neighborhood. To have a house that I would not out grow, it would be 3x my rent.
I easily put away 2000 a month. I live in Chicago, and much to your disbelief, not every 606xx zip code is the same. If you want to live in a nice quiet place with like minded people you are going to pay for it. And I know enough of this world to not run off to be an Urban Pioneer.
You'll pay here, with blood, tears or money.
Just have to save and hope the prices come down.
C U ON THE DOWNSLOPE!!!!
But mark my words, we are only in the beginning of this cycle, and YES, once we hit bottom again, as always has been, prices will appreciate again.
Friday, December 15, 2006 12:48:49 AM
great post. thanks.
Even on a frozen over lake, there is always a pocket or two of liquid.
There are waht are called stable markets. One's that have only appreciated at 3-6% per year, even in the peak of the home rush.
They will, and will continue to remain stable.
If you are fortunate to live in these areas, you are safe and have probably been enjoying life as usual.
Enjoy!
Live from San Diego:
It Still ain't enough!
well im not a realtor, but can tell most of you are self important californians
dont you realize that there is a world OUTSIDE of california where rents are not 1/2 of mortgage cost and wher incomes are not so out of whack with prices- the avg californian pays among the highest percentage of wage to housing costs in the country
so of course this area is more vulnerable and weakened when it became overspeculative and such a high amt of califonians were flashy as well and maxed out to buy a house and flashy car!!!!
BUT THE REST OF THE COUNTRY IS NOT CALIFORNIA
AND NEW PURCHASE MORTGAGE APPS ARE AT 11 MTH HIGH NATIONALLY
AND SUPPLY HAS BEEN DECREASAING IN THE VAST MAJORITY OF AREAS
AND THE RATIO OF NEW HOME STARTS TO EXISITNG SALES IS AT THE LOWEST LEVEL EVER SINCE RECORDS KEPT (OCER 30 YEARS)
sorry to have to be rude with caps,, but you cant seem to get it into your head that you cant analyze a national market by overgeneralizing the same areas you all talk about AGAIN and AGAIN
we know california is boom /bust - its not the first time
but supply and demand nationwide is simlpy not as bearish as it was earlier in the year- this is fact not anecdote
AND the number of homes in preforeclosure nationwide is less then 1/2 of 1 percent - not 30 or 40 % as some of you may think- if the number goes higher in ca and az. ( another flashy state of overpriced homes - the 40k a year millionaire syndrome) that will not crash the rest of the market with more responsible people
the average natl. median (BEYOND CA, ok) will likely be flat to higher in one year ,, not even lower at all
your own overpriced california neighborhood may be different,, but stop being so self important and thinking the world revolves around you- most of the rest of the country is just fine,, we just dont make the papers like you crazy californians with big house expensive cars and no money for reserves....
Thank god for that!!
"BUT THE REST OF THE COUNTRY IS NOT CALIFORNIA"
To Stuckintheshity, I'm glad for you.
You must be single and I concur that if single, often renting is a very smart position to be in unless you can buy and pay about the same as your rent.
However when I was refering to feeling bad for renters I was thinking of a lot of lower class workers I worked with who have families and rent, not single people.
I worked with a housekeeper, divorced, mother of one, rented a place, dumpy apartment, had no car, walked or took the bus, made about $8.50 an hour. When I worked with her I'd give her gift cards to Target, at the holidays a turkey, buy xmas gifts for her daughter etc. I'd help her out because I believe people should help those they know, less fraud, than the goverment wasting our dollars trying to help the poor.
Still, like Anonymous said, not every place is California, or cities like Chicago where the cost to own 2x, 3x, 4x the cost of renting.
Also it is easy for people here to post how little they pay in rent but often many of them are single, only need an efficiency or 1 bdrm and the costs are higher for those who rent a 2/3 bdrm house or apartment.
Kind of like Walmart, they bragg about "lowest pricing" or advertise that $19 microwave but when you get there the microwave isn't that nice so you end up with a better model for more money (and not necessarily the lowest price).
I don't take much stock in the price of a 1 bdrm anything since most Americans need 2 bdrms or more unless they are single and even in overpriced Phoenix you can still buy an older 3 bedroom house and have a payment after tax credit that is equivilent to renting a nice 2 bedroom apartment or townhouse.
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