December 25, 2006

The Corrupt David Lereah - now on the "worst predictions of all time" list?


Ahh... gotta love a bad prediction. I've made a few myself (damn Cubs, and no, the stock market didn't crash this year). But while guessing the exact time of an event can be tricky (Cubs 2018!), laying out the case of why something will happen or is happening is not (goodbye dollar, goodbye housing).

Here are a few gems from the past. Check out Survivingthecrash for a list of Great Depression vs. Housing Bubble doozies:

"There is no doubt that the regime of Saddam Hussein possesses weapons of mass destruction"
- General Tommy Franks, March 22nd, 2003.

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."
- Ken Olson, DEC Chairman, 1977

"No matter what happens, the U.S. Navy is not going to be caught napping"
- Frank Knox, U.S. Secretary of Navy, December 4, 1941

"My belief is we will, in fact, be greeted as liberators." - Dick Cheney, US VP, 2003

"Fifteen percent is pretty much in the bag for Orange County in 2006," he says. "It's impossible for prices to go down this year." (Note - OC sales down 21%, reported prices off 3% so far)
- Gary Watts, Spokesman Orange Country Association of Realtors, Oct 2005

"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."
- Paul Block, Block Newspapers, November 15, 1929

"The worst is behind us, as far as a market correction — this is likely the trough for sales" David Lereah, Oct. 2006

27 comments:

Anonymous said...

We're joined now by the man who predicted the dot-com bust, Robert Shiller. He's professor of economics at Yale University and author of the upcoming book, "Irrational Exuberance, Second Edition."

Also joining us, David Lereah, chief economist with the National Association of Realtors, and author of "Are You Missing the Real Estate Boom?"

Welcome to both of you.

ROBERT SHILLER, Yale University: Thank you.

DAVID LEREAH, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS: Thank you. WILLIS: Bob, let's start with you. You know, every day it seems like we're hearing another story about how the market's completely out of control. You saw a bunch just a second ago. Is this market cruisin' for a bruisin'?

SHILLER: I think it's definitely a bubble in many cities. The question, of course, that you alluded to, is, when will it be over? The momentum has been very strong. I imagine that's what motivated David Lereah to write this book. It has been easy to make money in the market.

The real question is, how much longer? I don't know. I think that you might have a year or two or even more to go, but there's also signs of a change in attitude. This could be late. This could be too late.

WILLIS: Well, David Lereah, let's turn to you now. Is this a bubble that's just waiting to burst? What's going on here?

LEREAH: Well, I think the better way to look at it is, there's -- you know, real estate is local, so there's local balloons in some of these markets. So I do agree with Bob on that. There are local balloons out here. Double-digit price appreciation for several years in a row is not a healthy situation.

But what I say in my book, and what I've been saying for the last four years, is that the air will come out of the balloon in a manageable way, rather than these balloons popping.

Real estate is not cyclical when it comes to home price appreciation. We have never, with the exception of the Great Depression, we haven't seen nationally home prices drop.

http://transcripts.cnn.com/TRANSCRIPTS/0504/16/oh.01.html

Budvar said...

"There is no doubt that the regime of Saddam Hussein possesses weapons of mass destruction"

I don't think there was any doubt he had any, seeing as they were dropping out the sky during Gulf war I!!

skytrekker said...

'The Stock Market has reached a permanently high plateau......'

Autumn 1929

Anonymous said...

Bush, to get elected and before he lost his mind, from the Bush/Gore debates:

"And I think that's where maybe the vice president and I begin to have some differences. I'm worried about overcommitting our military around the world. I want to be judicious in its use. You mentioned Haiti. I wouldn't have sent troops to Haiti. I didn't think it was a mission worthwhile. It was a nation building mission, and it was not very successful. It cost us billions, a couple billions of dollars, and I'm not so sure democracy is any better off in Haiti than it was before."

BUSH: I don't think so. I think what we need to do is convince people who live in the lands they live in to build the nations. Maybe I'm missing something here. I mean, we're going to have kind of a nation building core from America? Absolutely not. Our military is meant to fight and win war. That's what it's meant to do. And when it gets overextended, morale drops

Anonymous said...

Data shows economy continues to slow, leading to Fed rate cut and a run on the dollar by every trading operation in existence. $5 gas by summer sends Bush poll numbers to single digits. Troops deployed to streets as Martial Law is declared. Employment cutbacks surge yet the government says unemployment inched up .1% but is still under 5%. Bush buys pair of Nikes and waits for alien pickup...

Anonymous said...

anon 2:28...if that were to happen at least one good thing would come out of it, all you treasonous anti-American pieces of garbage would finally be put in prison where you belong

Anonymous said...

OUT OF CONTROL INFLATION!!! RUN FOR THE HILLS!!!!

NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- A key inflation gauge showed no rise in prices in November while Americans' incomes and spending both rose, but came in a bit lighter than expected.

Spending by consumers increased 0.5 percent, the Commerce Department said, up from a revised 0.3 percent rise in October. Economists surveyed by Briefing.com forecast a 0.6 percent rise.
retail_cash_register.03.jpg

How much would
in
be worth today?
$


Personal income grew 0.3 percent, the same as October's revised reading. Economists had forecast a 0.4 percent rise.

But the big news in the report was that two key inflation measures showed prices unchanged from October.

The so-called PCE deflator, which measures prices paid by individuals, and the core PCE stripping out food and energy were both flat last month. The closely watched core reading showed less inflation pressure than the 0.2 percent rise in October.

Anonymous said...

Where do you people get your "economy is in recession" ideas from? A 25% increase in online holiday shopping is not a recession in the making.

Or is this not to be trusted as it is some NAR run conspiracy?


NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Online shopping got a big late-season surge as many more holiday procrastinators turned to the Internet to wrap up their gift buying, according to the latest report from market research firm ComScore Networks.

During the first 50 days of the season, total online retail spending, excluding travel-related purchases, reached $21.68 billion, up 26 percent from a year earlier, the firm said.

On Dec. 11, consumers set a single-day record of $661 million for online spending. Two days later, that record was broken as consumers spent $667 million online.

As a result, the firm revised its online holiday sales forecast higher to $24.6 billion, or an increase of 25 percent over the same period last year. ComScore initially had expected holiday sales on the Internet to grow 24 percent to $24.3 billion.

Anonymous said...

Didn't Democrats think Saddam had WMDs? If I recall correctly.....


"Iraq's search for weapons of mass destruction has proven impossible to deter and we should assume that it will continue for as long as Saddam is in power."
- Al Gore, Sept. 23, 2002

"In the four years since the inspectors left, intelligence reports show that Saddam Hussein has worked to rebuild his chemical and biological weapons stock, his missile delivery capability, and his nuclear program. He has also given aid, comfort, and sanctuary to terrorists, including al Qaeda members .. It is clear, however, that if left unchecked, Saddam Hussein will continue to increase his capacity to wage biological and chemical warfare, and will keep trying to develop nuclear weapons."
- Sen. Hillary Clinton (D, NY), Oct 10, 2002

"I will be voting to give the President of the United States the authority to use force-- if necessary-- to disarm Saddam Hussein because I believe that a deadly arsenal of weapons of mass destruction in his hands is a real and grave threat to our security."
- Sen. John F. Kerry (D, MA), Oct. 9, 2002


"Without question, we need to disarm Saddam Hussein. He is a brutal, murderous dictator, leading an oppressive regime ... He presents a particularly grievous threat because he is so consistently prone to miscalculation ... And now he is miscalculating America's response to his continued deceit and his consistent grasp for weapons of mass destruction ... So the threat of Saddam Hussein with weapons of mass destruction is real ..."
- Sen. John F. Kerry (D, MA), Jan. 23. 2003

"Saddam Hussein has been engaged in the development of weapons of mass destruction technology which is a threat to countries in the region and he has made a mockery of the weapons inspection process."
- Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D, CA), Dec. 16, 1998

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

"There is no doubt that the regime of Saddam Hussein possesses weapons of mass destruction"
- General Tommy Franks, March 22nd, 2003.
+++++++++++
Not defending the wars, but they absolutely found Cerin, after the Iraq invasion, which is a WMD. Not only had them, used them against the Kurdish Village in the North.

************

waits for alien pickup...

LOL

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Surviving the Crash

A HyperText Documentary of the Coming Economic Crash
*************

The Guy is a Dance Instructor. Aren't all you guys gonna 'Have a Cow' because of the Source?

Well, he is really good looking. (:
te he

Anonymous said...

Bush, to get elected and before he lost his mind, from the Bush/Gore debates:
==================================
Dont forget when these two genuises debated what to do with the so-called "surplus". Now that was a hoot. There never was any surplus as it was all predicated on the stock market bubble.

obamama said...

Here are some of my favorites:

"HousingPanic Buy Recommendation: SRPIX - ProFunds Short Real Estate Fund"

"One play that I do recommend is EBAY - why? Because the interest only crowd
will be selling everything that's not bolted down to make their payments
(until they're foreclosed) the next few years"

"If/when FRE and FNM are limited - their stocks will plummet -Short 'em"

What will be the Dow close? 8800!

Keith's Idol and Mentor



9/7/2006: Keith issues Housing Manifesto rooting for a disastrous recession and the collapse of the stock market.

9/7/2006: Dow at 11,405

12/23: Dow at 12,343

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

9/7/2006: Keith issues Housing Manifesto rooting for a disastrous recession and the collapse of the stock market.
((((((((((((((((
BAD LINK

john_law_the_II said...

"Didn't Democrats think Saddam had WMDs? If I recall correctly....."

of course, the bush admin was lying to them.

Anonymous said...

hmmm I thought the Democrats were oh so smart and sophisticated, yet they fell for the lies of the dimwit Bush...tsk tsk tsk

Anonymous said...

Democrats and Republicans, Democrats and Republicans. You don't it. Think them and us. The Rich and the rest of us.

keith said...

Gold way up this year. ConocoPhillips stock and other oils near all time high. Housing inventories soaring, prices cratering. Dollar tanking.

On US stocks, just wait. The credit bubble eventually unwinds. Until then, just too much easy money sloshing around looking for a safe place to go.

Anonymous said...

According to Democrats I am rich.


"Democrats and Republicans, Democrats and Republicans. You don't it. Think them and us. The Rich and the rest of us."

Anonymous said...

Keith,

Didn't you predict '06 would see a market crash? Last I checked S&P500 up 14% for 2006.

Keith said:
On US stocks, just wait. The credit bubble eventually unwinds. Until then, just too much easy money sloshing around looking for a safe place to go.

Anonymous said...

9/7/2006: Keith issues Housing Manifesto

Anonymous said...

You are not rich. And you are not in power. You will be part of the humgry, angry masses. Neither the Democrates or Republicans give a damn about you. Keep thinking you are rich. That is the pit they want you to be in. So far, this Democracy is still working because most people still beleive that hard work and a good education will get them what that Pfizer CEO got for doing a poor job. You are not part of that class and you never will be. The pyramid on the back of the dollar bill explains it all, the eye is at the top. There are only so many slots at the top. I doubt there is a slot for you.

Anonymous said...

Well spoken, Anonymous. Sadly true.

Anonymous said...

The manifesto was not a prediction

stuckinthecity said...

The so-called PCE deflator, which measures prices paid by individuals, and the core PCE stripping out food and energy were both flat last month. The closely watched core reading showed less inflation pressure than the 0.2 percent rise in October.

Monday, December 25, 2006 3:52:42 PM
--------------

does the core PCE strip out housing prices??

I Love Broadband over PowerLine said...

David Leareah had to watch this REALITY NEWS video !!!

housing bubble video

Anonymous said...

"I think it will fit"! John Holmes