HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008: BUBBLETALK - December thread to talk about the epic housing collapse

December 12, 2006

BUBBLETALK - December thread to talk about the epic housing collapse

December thread #1. Keep it clean, do your thing

201 comments:

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FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Heading into 2007, the Federal Reserve will reduce interest rates as evidenced by the U.S. Treasury yield-curve. The difference between short-term and long-term rates in the United States continues to strongly suggest that the odds of an economic recession are growing. This threat is further exacerbated by a bear-market in residential real estate, weaker retail sales, and sluggish gross domestic product (GDP) growth since July.

The Fed will ultimately do the right thing to support U.S. consumption and the real estate market: Print money.

It's time to hedge your portfolio. And the best hedges against a declining dollar in 2007 are major foreign currencies, hard assets like gold and silver, selective international stock markets, and high-value real estate.

ERIC ROSEMAN, Investment Director
On behalf of The Sovereign Society; December 02, 2006 9:05 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: AND

Lower U.S. interest rates also act as a boon for commodities. Lower interest rates attract dollar-based assets fleeing from increasingly uncompetitive U.S. assets as rates and the dollar decline. This has been the case most recently since 2002 when the dollar peaked versus most foreign currencies. As the dollar has plunged over the last five years, virtually all commodities have surged, including crude oil, gold, and silver.

ERIC ROSEMAN, Investment Director
On behalf of The Sovereign Society; December 02, 2006 9:06 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Not to be a Thread Hog, but I had to post this as I have been predicting this for weeks. I used to think interest would HAVE to go up. But a
few weeks ago, I realized they had to devalue the dollar to create the Amero.
I is all a plan, imo.
This is from The Terror Storm Producer and is dated today.

iw

Paul Joseph Watson & Alex Jones
Prison Planet
Friday, December 1, 2006

Dollar Fall Is Catalyst For Predatory Global Government

Americans remain ignorant to 35% devaluation of their bank savings as skids are greased for introduction of Amero, North American Union

As the dollar goes into free fall and the housing market accelerates in sales yet plunges in price, the quickening of an agenda of economic catastrophe allied to the "solution" of predatory globalism and the creation of a North American Union is afoot, and it spells potential disaster for the livelihood of all Americans.

Home prices have dropped 24% in the last year and most of that fall has happened in the last six months. The dollar has devalued around 35% against its level six years ago and is being trounced by the Euro and Sterling.

http://tinyurl.com/y7jvm8; December 02, 2006 10:36 PM
Roccman said...: An email from Bernanke
I was quite surprised to wake up this morning and find an Email from Ben Bernanke sitting in my inbox. It was in response to Bernanke's Box. I wanted to share it with everyone. It seems the Fed is about to initiate a new policy of speaking exactly what is on their minds. The following Email from chairman Bernanke is a kickoff for that campaign. It goes a long way towards speaking openly and honestly about the problems the US is facing and how the Fed intends to deal with them. From Ben Bernanke:

Speaking on behalf of all the Fed members we thought it was time to honestly address the situation the country is facing. This is part of our new policy to be as candid and honest as possible. Quite frankly we are frightened by the rapid falloff in housing permits, the rise in jobless claims, the rise in inventories, and the slowdown in consumer spending. It now appears the landing is not going to be soft and it is also doubtful the financial markets are fully prepared for it.

This slowdown in jobs and wages could not have come at a worse time because consumers are cash strapped already. We now forecast a downward spiral in construction jobs that will spill over into other segments of the economy resulting in additional losses in wages and jobs. Compounding the problem is the fact that many home buyers took the advice of former chairman Greenspan by taking out adjustable rate mortgages with teaser rates that are now about ready to be reset.

Unfortunately we can’t start cutting interest rates just yet because we are also frightened by the massive speculation in the financial markets with stock buybacks, mergers, leveraged buyouts, and trillions of dollars in derivatives floating around some of which we do not even know who the ultimate guarantor is. We are hoping but do not know that the ultimate guarantor of these derivatives is not Madame Merriweather's Mud Hut in Malaysia.

We do not want to fuel further speculation in the equity markets so we have decided to do nothing for as long as possible. Another reason for doing nothing right now is the rapid fall in the US dollar. This frightens us too. All in all, we have decided the best policy decision is to do nothing while hoping that things get better. Please bear in mind, however, that hope is unlikely to work.

Many financial analysts have suggested that corporate spending will take the place of consumer spending when the consumer is finally tapped out. That can’t and won’t happen. Businesses have no reason to expand headed into a consumer led recession. But instead of wisely holding cash for the rough times ahead, businesses have been spending it on stock buybacks at an all time record pace. As you might guess, this further frightens us.

That we are frightened by so many things is clearly visible in the price of gold. In fact, we really have been trying to figure out why the price of gold isn't much higher given how frightened we are. This is indeed our latest conundrum.

In the past we have avoided talking about such issues because of fear that we might simultaneously prick the bubble in houses and the bubble in the equity markets. Careful analysis, however, shows that the average consumer is benefiting from the rise in equity markets as much as he benefited from the $34 billion in bonuses that Wall Street just handed out (which is another way of saying not at all). Real wages have been falling for the average guy on the street and that is shown by 19 consecutive months of negative savings rates, which is of course still another thing we are frightened by.

Make no mistake about it, a recession is where we are headed. We admit our role in fueling these bubbles by holding interest rates too low too long. Rather that attempt to cover up past mistakes our new policy at the Fed is honesty, and honestly we really do not know what to do. When we do decide what to do, we will tip off the banks first (just as we always have) because our biggest fear of all is a collapse of the banking system.

Ben Bernanke

Of all the financial blogs and media outlets, I am pleased and honored to be the one to receive that Email from Ben Bernanke. I am sure he feels much better too after getting all that baggage off his chest. I look forward to receiving more Emails from the Fed and promise to share them as soon as they come across my desk.

Mish addendum:
Judging from email responses as well as replies to this post it seems that some people believed this. Others thought I would be dumb enough to be taken in by an email from someone pretending to be Bernanke.
It is neither. I wrote that piece. I thought it was obvious.
Even if it wasn't initially, by the time one got to "Madame Merriweather's Mud Hut in Malaysia" it should have been exposed as a spoof right then.

Mike Shedlock / Mish
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/; December 02, 2006 10:37 PM
PaulRevere said...: “Martin Van Buren, the Red Fox of Kinderhook!
Knowing that real money can’t be printed!
He knew paper money is the work of a crook!
So what? If paper notes are colorfully tinted?
Constitutional money can only be minted!”

“President Van Buren, the “little magician!”
Waging war on worthless paper bank notes!
Use gold and silver alone was his proposition!
The paper money mob, a bunch of Judas goats!
Van Buren had them by their throats!”

“Long since departed into a Heavenly forever,
In the precious metals firmament---a shining star!
Have we ever had a better President? Never!
Ink on paper as money? Totally bizarre!
Is Van Buren holding onto a silver bar?”
Click Here; December 02, 2006 10:56 PM
Roccman said...: A must read:

The Creature From Jekyll Island

The story of how the fed reserve was created by a small group of bankers and industrialist.

Some of our ol friendd - Rockefeller, Rothschild, Morgans etc.; December 03, 2006 12:54 AM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Bankers; Dark Satire jpeg.

Have a Look

http://tinyurl.com/y8zfex; December 03, 2006 1:47 AM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Just for you, shakstr.

http://www.sovereignsociety.com/; December 03, 2006 1:02 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.; December 03, 2006 1:03 PM
Anonymous said...: The Fed will ultimately do the right thing to support U.S. consumption and the real estate market: Print money.
-----------------------

People can't afford these RE prices for homes OR investments. That is the #1 problem here. So, just printing money isn't going to help. Either the prices have to come back to earth, or the working / middle class needs a healthy raise. The second option is not going to happen bec it will bite into the budgets of too many muni's and corp's.; December 03, 2006 3:11 PM
Anonymous said...: Home prices have dropped 24% in the last year and most of that fall has happened in the last six
------------

that's too steep. I'm not seeing that here in Chicago.; December 03, 2006 3:12 PM
Roccman said...: While ICICI Bank has introduced biometric cards, PSU banks are on the verge of launching bio-metric ATMs.

Citibank plans to establish a network of 25 to 35 such ATMs within a year, specifically targeted at its Citibank `Pragati' savings account holders. Citibank `Pragati' is a no-frills savings account with nil minimum balance and is offered directly or through a micro-finance institution (MFI).

Mr P. S. Jayakumar, Country Business Manager, Global Consumer Group, Citibank, said the ATMs have been tailored to meet the needs of the under-banked, lower income segment. "Illiterate customers will be encouraged to use biometric ATMs. They can also have free access to the other Citibank ATMs with a PIN code," he said. Customers would not be charged for transactions on such ATMs, he added; December 03, 2006 3:26 PM
Roccman said...: Has He Started Talking to the Walls?
By FRANK RICH
Published: December 3, 2006

IT turns out we've been reading the wrong Bob Woodward book to
understand what's going on with President Bush. The text we should be
consulting instead is "The Final Days," the Woodward-Bernstein
account of Richard Nixon talking to the portraits on the White House
walls while Watergate demolished his presidency. As Mr. Bush has
ricocheted from Vietnam to Latvia to Jordan in recent weeks, we've
witnessed the troubling behavior of a president who isn't merely in a
state of denial but is completely untethered from reality. It's not
that he can't handle the truth about Iraq. He doesn't know what the
truth is.; December 03, 2006 3:30 PM
Anonymous said...: G. Edward Griffin, Author
The Creature From Jekyll Island: A Second Look at the Federal Reserve

Financial Sense Interview:

http://www.financialsense
.com/Experts/2006/
Griffin.html; December 03, 2006 5:22 PM
Anonymous said...: It's a new paradigm, and everybody who doesn't buy, now, will be priced out forever. Anybody who does buy will be rewarded with a lifetime of riches, as their property will continue its 30% yearly price increase.

Renters, and anybody born in a future generation, will not be able to afford a $10,000,000 starter home in 15 years. They will live in tent cities, and Hondas.

This asset bubble is different than all of the others - it will never slow down, or pop. The gains are permanent.; December 03, 2006 6:49 PM
foxwoodlief said...: I think Keith's site is running out of steam. What are the numbers for hits on this site of late? I see few posts by fellow bloggers, seems no interest in this sight as it offers no new information and strays from any real discussion of home values, trends, options, and instead is just filled with distractions, racism, politics, and such.; December 03, 2006 9:57 PM
Anonymous said...: Why did Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. said they want a strong dollar -- even as he announced a voyage to Beijing to jawbone the Chinese government into taking steps that would mean a weaker dollar against the yuan?

Because he want to convince the Chinese, Saudis, and Russians who buy U.S. government debt that their multitrillion-dollar stashes are safe. That way we keep the petrodollars -- or sneaker dollars -- flowing here instead of Europe so that instead of saving our money, we can keep spending it on Christmas gifts.

But the problem is when Hedge Funds are aware of the problem and start taking advantage of the macro-economic event created by the annoucement of the historic Paulson and Bernanke trip to Beijing.; December 03, 2006 10:52 PM
Roccman said...: "I think Keith's site is running out of steam. What are the numbers for hits on this site of late?"

Fox - this is getting old.

Who cares - you still are here posting nonsense.

Maybe HP w/attitude will morph into Old World Order w/ attitude.

There are good posts here in this community.

I'd stop Keith sitting if I were you and find something interesting to post or just go away.; December 04, 2006 12:05 AM
Roccman said...: A great listen on the bull gold and mostly silver market.

http://tinyurl.com/vu6vm

http://www.fmnn.com/eRadioLaunch.asp?rid=818; December 04, 2006 12:17 AM
Anonymous said...: It's all fun and games until a derivative markets meltdown...; December 04, 2006 1:33 AM
Anonymous said...: Oh yeah, this 'realtor math' says it's a great time to trade up now in Phoenix!!!

[realtor math = "Math is HARD..."]

With 25,000 spec homes, now may be the time to buy

Catherine Reagor
On real estate
Dec. 3, 2006 12:00 AM

New numbers are in on the fallout from the investor home-buying spree in metropolitan Phoenix.

As many as 40 percent of the contracts on all the new homes in the Valley during 2005 and early this year have fallen through. That translates to 25,000 spec homes, according to a new survey from housing analyst RL Brown.

Many new-home deals fell apart because buyers couldn't sell existing homes. But there also were many investors who pulled out of new-home deals after seeing they couldn't flip the homes for hefty profits.

Speculators had a big hand in hurting the resale market, too. Many snatched up existing homes last year and are now trying to sell them for a profit.

Those extra homes for sale, by many people who never lived in them, have created a glut in some areas of the Valley.

Housing analysts say supply and demand in the resale market has to get back in sync before the home building market will rebound.

There were only 2,341 new-home permits issued in October; that's half the wild pace of 2005.

The drop in building is a good sign the market is working to absorb all the spec homes.

When the incentives on new homes start to drop and new-home prices stop their drop, then it's a good sign the home-building market is rebound- ing.

So if you are looking for the best deal on a new home, it might be now.

Fresh calculations

Realty Executives President John Foltz said many of his agents ask where all the home buyers are in this "buyers market."

His answer: "They're living in overpriced listings."

At the Realty Executives quarterly meeting last week, the veteran real estate executive gave 1,000 agents a formula to show people why it's better to buy and sell in the Valley now.

Based on home prices or what buyers are willing to pay dropping 10 percent in the past year, buyers who could have sold their home for $400,000 last fall would have paid $600,000 to move up.

Now, the same buyers should look at selling their house for $360,000.

But they can move up to the same bigger home they looked at last year for $540,000.

Those buyers actually would spend less money now.

http://www.azcentral.com/
arizonarepublic/business/
articles/1203biz-catherine1203.html; December 04, 2006 3:18 AM
Anonymous said...: "Fresh Calculations"

Did an adult really come up with that?!? That's beyond stoopid...; December 04, 2006 3:20 AM
Anonymous said...: "It's a new paradigm, and everybody who doesn't buy, now, will be priced out forever."

Will you stop posting your rubbish here and elsewhere on the internet. You post the same damn thing over and over again. It's getting old and you only repeat what twit your are.; December 04, 2006 4:19 AM
Anonymous said...: FoxWood Wrote:

"I see few posts by fellow bloggers, seems no interest in this sight as it offers no new information and strays from any real discussion of home values, trends, options, and instead is just filled with distractions, racism, politics, and such."

At least we get a better picture of reality from Keith on many issues, such as people who have overextended themselves to buy that house. From FoxWood, however, we get asinine claims that everyone in Arizona is making $200,000 a year.; December 04, 2006 4:26 AM
foxwoodlief said...: To annonymous, since you are a puppet lost in the crowd of all the annoymous post on this site I imagine you are to cowardly to claim any original thoughts. You never put yourself into a context where we know where you live, what you do for a living, or that there is any connection with any posts that we can link as yours.

I fully understand that not all Americans, let alone people in Phoenix make $200,000 a year. I recognize that welfare folk don't, but then why should they? There are many entry level workers who don't, immigrants, people without a HS diploma (and many who don't in those groups who do make mucho dinero as education alone doesn't determine how much you make), but there are lots in Phoenix who make more than $40,000 a year.

Teachers, fireman, policeman, civil servants, professors, financial consultants, insurance agents, nurses, ultrasonographers, nurses, speech pathologists, hospital managers and administrators, consultants, store managers, engineers, contractors, construction workers, lawyers, legal secretaries, paralegals, nuclear med techs, radiology techs, doctors, shrinks, city, state, federal workers, military personel with any length of service or rank, high tech workers at Intel or Motorolla, soft ware designers, web designers, sports figures, resturant owners, ministers, the list goes on.

Add to that that most households are made up of two earners and you can easily make $80,000 and up per household in Phoenix. Most people in Phoenix make more than $14 an hour and that alone would give a household of two earners $60,000 a year. If you make less than that then you are either new to the work force or lack any skills, managerial or other, and can't blame anyone but yourself for your lack of income.

I know a lot of very ordinary working class people in Phoenix and elsewhere and they all earn over $60,000 a year if they are over 30 and many under 30 that make good money.

If you don't like your social status in this life then do something about it, go to school. I have a friend that is 58 who is back in school to become a Rad Tech (at first he thought RN but decided he didn't want to be that intimate with patients and families after working as a CNA to get experience in a medical enviroment) and will bt 60 when he starts a new career. So what is stopping you other than complaining about what other may or may not have.; December 04, 2006 5:43 AM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: It's a new paradigm, and everybody who doesn't buy, now, will be priced out forever."
++++++++++
Isn't that sarcastic?
I think it is fun and funny. When I do not come accross the "New paradigm" Post in a while, I wonder where the guy is.and if he is okay.

LOL

Get a handle anon. (:; December 04, 2006 2:15 PM
Anonymous said...: Thanks for the lecture Fauxwood. It was very insightful. Off topic, but insightful nonetheless. Your contributions to this blog are legendary.; December 04, 2006 2:49 PM
blogger said...: foxwoodlief said...
I think Keith's site is running out of steam. What are the numbers for hits on this site of late?

- Record traffic every month foxwood. More clueless trolls like you too

Total 2,289,339
Average Per Day 9,414
Average Per Visit 1.7
Last Hour 293
Today 1,446
This Week 65,897

http://www.sitemeter.com/?a=stats&s=s20housingpanic; December 04, 2006 2:54 PM
Anonymous said...: “”It's a new paradigm, and everybody who doesn't buy, now, will be priced out forever."
++++++++++
Isn't that sarcastic?
I think it is fun and funny.””
----------------------------------
If you look at the thread from last week, “13% of HP'ers are now outside the US as the biggest bubble in world history pops ” (Scroll down the main page to the green pie-chart), the first post is “The New Paradigm” speech written in Spanish.

Fun and funny indeed! LOL at that one.
-Mammoth; December 04, 2006 3:08 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith,
Foxwoodleif is a regular contributor to your website. It is rude of you to call him a troll, putting him in the same category as people like greg swann.; December 04, 2006 3:14 PM
Anonymous said...: hi all,

I think the real issue here is that everyone is taking an all or nothing view... 1.-ie either real estate can never go down and there was no overspecualtive out of whack with income areas (of course this view is wrong if you look at certain areas of the country like ca, az, nv

but also view #2- ie all real estate is gonna tank theres a general meltdown coming because of those amateurs w/o money who got a neg amoritizing loan for 3 houses in phoenix without experience or money..
well view #2 is wrong too, and overgeneralizes, the latest housing numbers show a decline of 3.5% and 140+ areas GAINING in value vs. 40+ areas only declining (obviously sections of florida etc went down more then the 3.5% to cancel out the gaining areas in general

the third view is more the voice of reason , which i hardly ever see here (too bearish) or elsewhere (ie some Phoenix area realtor sites who trumped buying 5 houses with no reserves or market or landlord experience, and where the realtors had no clue as to potential supply demand in an endless desert where incomes didnt match housing prices at all- they were too bullish!

well the reasoned view is somewhere in between, there are areas and particular properties that would be graet to own based on supply demand in the future, price sold (ie if somone is overpanicking or needs to sell ), changes in the neighborhood, or price income ratios NOT so out of whack (everywhere is NOT phoenix, california or vegas investment subdivisions with low rents and high prices - HELLO cant someone see that here, it would add more credibility..

so to suggest that any amrket goes straight up (or that all areas of the country went up like phonix or califonia did) is inhernetly uninformed or biased

and to suggest that most people outside the very overvalued areas at the moment will be better off over the next 5 10 or 15 year holding time frame (most homeowners are not flippers- there is life outside scottsdale!!!!) in terms of stability , happiness , and net woth by renting vs owning is statistically very improbable, and simply bad advice for most families long term

remember there is always an opportunity cost- if you dont buy you must pay rent (which goes up 4% or so a year) so that in 10 years your rent payment may be 60% higher while your fixed mortgage payment is the same - other then taxes which is a wash cause a landlord will charge you for his tax increases anyway- and there isnt enven a mortgage interest or re tax deduction for renters...

it is disconcerting to read blogs, like this where people focus is biased and has to focus on the same overspecualtive areas to say the sky is gonna fall for the rest of us , rent forever-

just as it is just as disconcerting to read realtors blogs advising other realtor blogs suggesting someone with no money use an option arm to buy 3 investmens in phoenix with huge negative cashflow and no personal reserves to be able to take this risk without the high chance of foreclosure

the truth is somewhere in between, and is neighborhood/personal situation specific- cant some here acknowledge that or is that asking too much?? thanks; December 04, 2006 3:23 PM
Anonymous said...: Well bubble burst or light deflation the margins are gone in the U.S. right now.

Bahamas on the other hand is just heating up. Please check out our lots at www.bahamaheights.com for a virtual tour.

Thanks,

Paul www.bahamaheights.com; December 04, 2006 3:32 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: cant some here acknowledge that or is that asking too much?? thanks
+++++++++++++++++++

I agree. I have been an HPer since Oct, 2005 and just bought a condo downtown Orlando, Florida from a FB in September!

Everyone here knows my story, so I am not going into it, but, my money is safe and my fixed mort, tax and HOA Dues are lower than rent. I bought in a little “Pocket Boom” area, at the bottom.

What you are talking about is deductive reasoning and common sense. Not everyone has those skill sets, and the dichotomy make this sight what it is.; December 04, 2006 3:42 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: My favorite Part, the Realy Rep worked for peanuts, because they are starving.; December 04, 2006 3:47 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Plunging dollar will set world markets reeling

Bernanke sought to reassure the currency markets last week by stressing that the Fed is still concerned about inflation, but his words failed to stem the sell-off. 'It's as though the markets are saying, "you central bankers are worrying about inflation, we're worrying about the reality of life",' said Bloom.

Mortimer-Lee said the Fed would wait for definitive evidence before making a move. 'At the end of the tightening cycle, you know you've got an inflation problem, and it's only when the evidence is overwhelming that you move.' However, he believes that evidence will come soon: with investment in construction already falling as the housing boom turns to bust, BNP Paribas is predicting that a million jobs will be lost in the building industry alone over the coming 18 months.

http://tinyurl.com/yx9842; December 04, 2006 4:05 PM
Anonymous said...: hi flying monkey warrior,

wow, an actuall nice comment, thank you i thought id be attacked for even suggesting there are overvalued AND undervalued situations in housing, like any market..

its nice to see someone has an example that there are even positve cash flow properties even in (gaasp!) florida..good luck

would you have on hand any other sites where you can read a civil informed discusion (both sides) based on more statistics etc on real estate? rather then attacks or pure rah rah cheerleading bias of one way of another?

I dont know of many, have found econobrowser to be interesting , and less tabloid, written by an econ proffesror if i remember properly and talks about supply and demand with charts etc ( wo much bias one way or another)

finally, although im sure hed be attacked here too its interesting that people like alan greenspan and the majority of economists polled by the wall street journal feel the worst of housing is behind us, while there is more press given to some unknown on cnn who says that all housing will go down 40 % nationwide (yeah right)..dont get it..wheres the cool heads and sanity..; December 04, 2006 4:20 PM
Anonymous said...: 1 million construction jobs lost over the next 18 months!

How many by the illeagl work force?; December 04, 2006 4:32 PM
Anonymous said...: well if the market was overheated, you would expect that housing starts would slow to ultimately put supply and demand more in balance.. the slowdown helps tighten supply which lessens the chance of a continued overheated (or bubble as many here like to say) market down the road--- yes this slows down jobs and gdp to a point , but if you feel that housing was a bubble and overheated then these jobs were based on over bullishness anyway-

the flip side is that the slowdown in jobs gdp etc has led to lower longer term rates which may actually help bottom out the housing cycle and help start the new uptrend in housing when supply and demand is more in balnce nationally (note nationally, NOT simply an ivestor overpriced investor complex in scottsdale, thats not the whole picture); December 04, 2006 4:39 PM
Anonymous said...: Just found out that my apartment complex is thinking about going condo. Looks like I need to find another place to live....; December 04, 2006 5:03 PM
guydaley said...: We may lose 1Million employment in residential construction in the next year or so but don't forget those jobs will NOT show up in unemployment. 90% of them are cash and illegal so they won't be drawing unemployment therefore they won't be "unemployed". What about realtors, are they self-employed? therefore they won't become under or unemployed either right? It never fails to amaze me how worthless our unemployment figures are.; December 04, 2006 5:58 PM
guydaley said...: We may lose 1Million employment in residential construction in the next year or so but don't forget those jobs will NOT show up in unemployment. 90% of them are cash and illegal so they won't be drawing unemployment therefore they won't be "unemployed". What about realtors, are they self-employed? therefore they won't become under or unemployed either right? It never fails to amaze me how worthless our unemployment figures are.; December 04, 2006 5:59 PM
Anonymous said...: What I'm a thinking: The FED group might hold rates steady for a while. The amount of dollar trading going on is so huge that they might want to sort out the noise and see if China/Japan actually do anything. The current rates will probably lead to a slower more orderly decline then a protective move (raise).

The commodity markets and currency markets are too leveraged right now to make a move. I am sitting tight with my defense industry stocks that I think will do well.

I'd like to see rasie of the FED rates but its probably not going to happen.; December 04, 2006 6:04 PM
Anonymous said...: Latest Leareah Quote on MSNBC.COM:

"It's important to focus on where the housing market is now -- it appears to be stabilizing, and comparisons with an unsustainable boom mask the fact that home sales remain historically high," David Lereah, chief economist for the trade association, said in a statement."

AN UNSUSTAINABLE BOOM?

and yes, they still remain historically high- the exact reason I will not buying.; December 04, 2006 6:30 PM
Anonymous said...: Investment question for you other bubble sitters: where's a good place to "park" your money if the sh#@ really hits the fan in 2007 like I think it might? Muni Bonds, Int'l Bonds, Foriegn currencies, etc? We were fortunate to sell our house for a considerable gain last summer and will be renting until things bottom out.

TIA.; December 04, 2006 6:41 PM
Anonymous said...: Gee,

Why don't you guys get it on Iraq. We won. Its over.

The point was not to leave an enemy on our flank if we need to attack Iran. That mission was accomplished. Iraq is a nation only in name. Tribal fighting is not a significant millitary threat to us.

Next we should liberate the Iranian's from their reppresive fundamentalist regime.

Get it?
LAEF2; December 04, 2006 10:08 PM
foxwoodlief said...: Thanks for the stats Keith. I thought by the lack of postings that traffic must be off. Other than a few or your regulars that post endless articles like Richard, I was even beginning to miss the rants of Honica Jewinski.

Of course your calling anyone who thinks differently than you a troll is just another manifestation of your apparent meglamania, like when you posted you were surprised the whole REIC isn't after you and taking way to much credit as having any impact on the market as a whole not to mention that as many of your fellow bloggers here have noted, that to have fallen all your advise on stocks, gold, etc would have lead to some real losses to a lot of folk who may have listened to you.

It is also apparent that you have a hard-on for Phoenix and like to lump all home markets, individual home buyers, mexicans, etc into one basket. I'd have hoped being in over-priced England would have tamed your biased attitude.

At least Ben's site posts simple data, articles, without fanfare or exageration so that people can filter through the data and see how it applies to their situations, communities, and try to make some sense on where we are in this whole cycle and where we are going.

That being said you'll ask, "Why do you come here?" The same reason I read the Arab Times, the Arab News, Al-Jazeera English, the BBC, the Economist and various newspapers from the NY Times, Austin Statesman, Tampa Tribune, St Petersburg Times, Arizona Republic, San Jose Mercury, or any other newspaper or online site I can find, for data, trends, moods, debate, etc since I take all I read with a grain of skepticism knowing the truth usually lies somewhere in-between extremes.

I also know you use a controversial style, try provoking issues beyond housing bubbles to drive traffic as that is a source of revenue for you. I'm sure you love being the Devil's advocate and I am not always sure how serious to take some of your off the wall sentiments.

There are some very reasonable people who post here, some who like to engage in meaningful dialogue, some who don't feel the need to bash every place, person or thing they don't agree on or with.

And "Thanks" Mammoth for your comments. To me a troll is someone, not necessarily a realtor, who comes to this site to attract traffic to their site, web page, blog, business proposition etc, not those who come here, realtor or not, to discuss serious issues constructively or present a different point of view or different data. One-sided debates are just dictatorships.; December 04, 2006 10:37 PM
foxwoodlief said...: P.S., to give an example, I go on christian blogs and because I try to engage in meaningful dialogue have been blocked and even told "The Devil is not allowed on this spiritual site." Love how they want to tell us all we are wrong and going to hell but don't want a civilized debate. See no difference in that than in any other fundamentalist viewpoint.

We forget that once upon a time people thought the world, flat (and many still do), that the sun revolved around the earth, that there are seven heavens, that sea monstors and dragons live in the sea, etc. A House bubble believer is no different if he can't approach the subject with open eyes, open debate, willingness to exam all the data and recognize that one size does not fit all.; December 04, 2006 10:42 PM
Jip said...: Saw an ad in last week's RE section. A Lakewood Homeowner is willing to pay up to 20K of the buyers Down Payment.....; December 04, 2006 11:17 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: That being said you'll ask, "Why do you come here?" The same reason I read the Arab Times, the Arab News, Al-Jazeera English, the BBC, the Economist and various newspapers from the NY Times, Austin Statesman, Tampa Tribune, St Petersburg Times, Arizona Republic, San Jose Mercury, or any other newspaper or online site I can find, for data, trends, moods, debate, etc since I take all I read with a grain of skepticism knowing the truth usually lies somewhere in-between extremes.
=============
yes.

but i do bash realtors and flippers.
hope u dont mind. (:; December 04, 2006 11:54 PM
foxwoodlief said...: Flyingmonkeywarrior, no I don't mind you bashing flippers or realtors when valid, I don't recall every hearing you be hateful or racist.

I also come here when I am bored. My wife and I have taken a sabbatical, she has been off work ten months and I have been off seven months and spending 24/7 with one's spouse is....trying. I'll probably go back to work in January just so I won't be bored, maybe I should try blogging for a living? I understand that many bloggers make money off their blogs by selling related merchandise (books) links that get clicked on?? And by general traffic for ads that are posted like billboards? I guess if Keith has 68000 visitors a week even at say a penny each?

Still, I come here hoping to glean some piece of wisdom to guide me on my choices and because Keith and I hail from Phoenix (with two different views on that city) and both feel home prices unjustified by economics and in many areas pure bubbles that in the end can only harm all of us. That is the evil part, that those of us who didn't jump into flipping, buying three or four houses with liar loans trying to get rich quick, sell a $400,000 shack in Watts and export that inflation to non-bubble areas, will all end up paying, like we did during the RTC crisis where the taxpayer picked up the tab as always.

That is another reason I come here.; December 05, 2006 12:18 AM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Love the Locust swarming comment with regard to Real Estate speculators, too Foxie. It is just exactly what happened here in Orlando. I am still trying to "Get Over It", without a word of exaggerating. It really has put real people through a lot, buying your home from the “Middle Man” Flipper, cuz all he does is drive around, tying up properties with contracts, to flip to end users, like me.
I am all for making money, but not at the cost and destruction of my hometown.
PS. Should I feel bad that you have a lot of time off work (remove tongue from cheek). I think jealous comes to mind.
PSS; An intersting side story to the job situation here in Orlando. The Mayor has just put three deals together

1.to build the Orlando Magic a new Arena,

2.to Build a new Football Stadium for the Bowl Games and UCF,

3. to build a new Performing Arts Center.

Sounds like the Hoover Dam and the LBJ New Roads and Build Bridges to me. Jobs for everyone!
iw; December 05, 2006 12:35 AM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: wow, an actuall nice comment, thank you i thought id be attacked for even suggesting there are overvalued AND undervalued situations in housing, like any market..

its nice to see someone has an example that there are even positve cash flow properties even in (gaasp!) florida..good luck
++++++++++++
You’re Welcome anon.

Don't get me wrong, I am just hunkering down and preparing for the worst, hoping for the best. I am not an investor; I just live in my home.

I paid $100,000.00 less than Zillow says I should have.

I bought because I was afraid mortgage money would get too tight and interest would go up. Also, if inflation arrives, interest goes down, my debt will be lighter when the money presses start. Either way I win. That is why I bought.

We shall see, with time, if I made an error or not, but I will never sell my little Postage Stamp Penthouse.

I must give Keith the credit for helping me to be an educated buyer.

Irony abounds here at HP.; December 05, 2006 12:46 AM
Anonymous said...: I got the best of that SOB realtor, bought the house for full price but made him give me two toppings on my pizza!

Check mate!; December 05, 2006 1:52 AM
Roccman said...: "Other than a few or your regulars that post endless articles like Richard,"

Fox - you are a bore.

Grow up.; December 05, 2006 2:54 AM
Anonymous said...: Those of you in Chicago, pick up Barron's page M9. Great Article. Says what we've been saying.; December 05, 2006 4:08 AM
foxwoodlief said...: Flyingmonkeywarrior said, "PSS; An intersting side story to the job situation here in Orlando. The Mayor has just put three deals together

1.to build the Orlando Magic a new Arena,

2.to Build a new Football Stadium for the Bowl Games and UCF,

3. to build a new Performing Arts Center."

Another rape of the taxpayers so the rich can get richer. Phoenix did the same thing, built a baseball stadium, basketball stadium, football stadium, expanding the convention center, all because they say it brings money to town. Well if it brings money then it should be self-supporting. Why should the owners of these teams hold fans and citizens hostage? Why should they make millions, pay players millions, and taxpayers pay millions and then pay millions to see the games?

The whole real estate game is rigged against the average family or person wanting just to own a home or business. You see it, city gives Walmart tax breaks, they build big ugly box, tax credits run out, they move to the next town with incentives and leave their big empty box behind. Hip areas get bought out by developers who come in and gentrify (and I'm not against improving an area) an area just to jack up rents and drive out all the shops and businesses.

Living in Tampa, I bought a house in the ghetto (3600 sq ft for $20,000) and watched the way government grants were given to those in the "in" to rob poor people of their homes through grants to candy coat their houses. I saw little old black ladies ini tears after they were done and then when they died the families had to sell to pay back the grants and the houses were still falling apart. Then the big lawyers would gather like vultures and buy up large sections of central Tampa and let properties rot so that down the road they could speculate on selling that land for top dollar to develope.

Ybor City was a prime example. When I was first stationed there in 1976 it was a ghetto. Great old buildings that sat empty and mostly boarded up and owned by a small handful of investors who wanted millions for the property in poor condition but not willing to spend a dime to improve them and holding the area hostage to developement at their price.

Sorry to hear these locusts are doing the same thing to Orlando. I'm all for making money, improving neighborhoods, making a reasonable profit but most developers are only interested in milking banks, pension funds, taxpayers, to get rich without leaving anything positive but junk behind.; December 05, 2006 6:01 AM
Anonymous said...: Knock knock............; December 05, 2006 6:59 AM
Anonymous said...: Unfortunately i don't think the middle-class american will be able to purchase a home ever again.

His income isn't going to rise enough and housing prices aren't going to fall enough.

The dollar will continue to devalue which means real assets (houses) won't drop much in price, but at the same time our paychecks will buy less and less; December 05, 2006 7:41 AM
Anonymous said...: Least surprising headline of the year:

Late payments on subprime loans soar - WSJ

NEW YORK, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Late payments on subprime loans have surged, the Wall Street Journal reported on its Web site on Tuesday, and while economists don't expect major harm, a continued rise could hurt investors in mortgage-backed securities.

Subprime mortgages are loans made to borrowers who are considered to be higher credit risks because of past payment problems, high debt relative to income, or other factors, it said.

Lenders typically charge them higher interest rates -- as much as four percentage points more than more credit-worthy borrowers pay -- one reason subprime mortgages are among the most profitable segments of the industry, the paper added.

Subprime mortgage originations climbed to $625 billion in 2005 from $120 billion in 2001, the WSJ said, citing Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication.

Based on current performance, 2006 is on track to be one of the worst ever for subprime loans, according to UBS AG, it said. It cited the bank saying that roughly 80,000 subprime borrowers who took out mortgages packaged into securities this year are behind on their payments.

--------------------------------

"while economists don't expect major harm" ha ha ha ho ho ho.; December 05, 2006 8:25 AM
Anonymous said...: "while economists don't expect major harm"

They are telling the truth, they just left off the last two words: "to them". They don't buy that subprime MBS crap.; December 05, 2006 1:15 PM
Roccman said...: http://www.latimes. com/news/ nationworld/ world/la- fg-usmideast3dec 03,0,7181716. story?coll= la-home-headline s

Mideast allies near a state of panic
U.S. leaders' visits to the region reap only warnings and worry.
By Paul Richter, Times Staff Writer
December 3, 2006

WASHINGTON — President Bush and his top advisors fanned out across the troubled Middle East over the last week to showcase their diplomatic initiatives to restore strained relationships with traditional allies and forge new ones with leaders in Iraq.

But instead of flaunting stronger ties and steadfast American influence, the president's journey found friends both old and new near a state of panic. Mideast leaders expressed soaring concern over upheavals across the region that the United States helped ignite through its invasion of Iraq and push for democracy — and fear that the Bush administration may make things worse.; December 05, 2006 1:35 PM
Anonymous said...: FoxWood Wrote:
To annonymous, since you are a puppet lost in the crowd of all the annoymous post on this site I imagine you are to cowardly to claim any original thoughts. You never put yourself into a context where we know where you live, what you do for a living, or that there is any connection with any posts that we can link as yours.

I fully understand that not all Americans, let alone people in Phoenix make $200,000 a year. I recognize that welfare folk don't, but then why should they? There are many entry level workers who don't, immigrants, people without a HS diploma (and many who don't in those groups who do make mucho dinero as education alone doesn't determine how much you make), but there are lots in Phoenix who make more than $40,000 a year.

I stand corrected of the previous comments I made of you. However, I get my stats of median household incomes from the U.S. Census Bureau, the BLS, and the GAO.

For your information, I have a degree in computer science and was 90K in salary + about 10K in stock options a year. When the dot-com fallout occurred, I knew I and many others were overpaid and would have to settle for a pay cut. That was okay But then the failed economic policies of George Bush came along with the drunk's encouragement of offshore outsourcing. This devestated my career and I will spend no more time learning the next tech skill. You need to understand that billionaires like Bill Gates, who lobby congress for more H1Bs, have way too much control in our society.; December 05, 2006 2:29 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: This devestated my career and I will spend no more time learning the next tech skill.
++++++++++
Sounds like you are an HP commrad, anon.; December 05, 2006 2:58 PM
Anonymous said...: "Sounds like you are an HP commrad, anon. "

Is that good or bad?; December 05, 2006 3:01 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: By Editor John Browne;

Greenspan is out of his mind to declare a bottom in the housing market after just a six-month slide.”

Editor’s Note: Sir John Templeton first warned housing prices could crash 50 percent.

On the contrary, Gundlach predicts that the housing market won’t bottom out until at least 2008, and will see no meaningful recovery until at least 2010.

And due in large part to the housing downturn, he sees about a 60 percent probability of a recession by the middle of next year.

“Consumers are less likely to spend freely when their biggest asset is getting drilled,” Laing writes in Barron’s.

“Nor with home prices stable or falling will as many U.S. consumers be able to avail themselves of cash-out refinancing to underwrite their lifestyles, says Gundlach.”

Gundlach notes that what he calls “shoe-horn financing” — shoddy home-lending practices — intensified the housing bubble, with borrowers allowed to qualify for mortgages that were in fact beyond their financial means.

NewsMax.com
4152 West Blue Heron Blvd, Ste 1114
Riviera Beach, FL, 33404 USA

38182; December 05, 2006 3:44 PM
Anonymous said...: "foxwoodlief said...

Another rape of the taxpayers so the rich can get richer..... built a baseball stadium,..... all because they say it brings money to town."

Same situation here. Mayor's pet project in a new baseball stadium downtown. Kicked a lot of poor people out of their homes under eminent domain, raised umpteen hundred million dollars from investors (and ultimately taxpayers) to create 50-60 permanent full time jobs paying $20-25000 a year (NOT counting team owners, player’s) The firm managing the new complex gets tax breaks "to infinity and beyond", no bid contract with virtually no city control. First five years no taxes at all, and no gate receipt percentage going to the city. Talk about the "fix being in."I wonder who is going to make up any losses? LOL!

A local newspaper reporter did the math and figured that the city could simply bank that much money (in a low interest paying pass book savings account for God's sake,) and simply pay 60 people $25000 a year, with benefits, UNTIL THEY DIED!
Keep replacing them indefinitely and the city would still always have a couple hundred million still in the bank without all the fuss and bother.

They just put a new 5-20% city tax on all parking garages, and increased the hours for the meters on the street. Depending on which day they added another 2-6 hours that you would have to put money in. Night games would have been meter free, not anymore!

The city father's are doing everything in their power to keep me from GOING downtown.

Where this stadium is located you would have to pay ME to go to a game! Mugged on the way in, mugged on the way out to your car, IF their was any car left!

Self-supporting, Yea, Right!; December 05, 2006 3:44 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Is that good or bad?
++++++++++++
You are out of the Matrix. That is a good thing, imo.; December 05, 2006 3:45 PM
Anonymous said...: Hey stuck in so pa: are you from dork, I mean, york? me, too. how the heck do we get out of here?; December 05, 2006 4:39 PM
Anonymous said...: "You are out of the Matrix. That is a good thing, imo."

Thanks.; December 05, 2006 5:16 PM
Anonymous said...: Anon,
If a middle class American won't be able to buy a house, than who the F*** will be buying them? Yes, the dollar is going to fall more, but people only make so much money and that is what will contain the housing prices and result in them falling for the next few years. That, and of course, the looming recession. The only way this will be prevented is if all of a sudden, out of nowhere business' decide to give their employees a fat, fat raise for the next few years. It's never happened before.; December 05, 2006 6:31 PM
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Anonymous said...: "Anonymous said...
Hey stuck in so pa: are you from dork, I mean, york? me, too. how the heck do we get out of here?"

I’m in the southern part of DORK county, not DORK city.
Move almost anywhere but here (PA) if you can.
It’s a lost cause here because:

1. No Hope. The arrogance with which the elected parasites gave themselves those “pre dawn pay raises” is proof of that. No wonder so many of them didn’t seek re-election.
Even though they gave back the raises AFTER VOTER OUTRAGE, they still keep large undeserved/unearned PENSION INCREASES based on those undeserved/unearned raises. So in effect, the sob’s get the pay raise back as soon as they retire or are voted out, EVEN THE ONE’S WHO VOTED NO! . Don’t be fooled.

2.No Future. As long as the God almighty teacher’s union totally controls the spineless, weak-kneed, and gutless school boards. If you are from York city, then you know all about raising school taxes. Greedy pigs!

Welcome to Taxsylvania, where there is no chance for a decent life, UNLESS of course you are an elected/appointed official or a government worker (i.e. state workers/teachers union elite!)
Better to sell at any price, or walk away, or as a last resort demo/burn the house down to deny the teachers union their SO DESERVED pound of flesh. Sooner or later, they will take everyone’s home anyway come tax time when all the PA homeowner’s finally can’t afford to pay their “UNION DUES.”; December 05, 2006 11:50 PM
foxwoodlief said...: To annonymous, I appreciate your comments. As we both know statistics can be skewed to mean anything the user intends, and are not always accurate, such as illustrated by some posters about median home prices. They can be skewed by one or two high home sales or reverse.

I appreciate your plight. For years I held the idea that more people were overpaid than underpaid but those sentiments have shifted over the past five years as the globalist agenda has slaughtered the purchasing power of the middle class while the richest .01% have seen incomes increase 600-700% (from the economist mag).

Makes you wonder what short-sighed bozo decided to sell out the American citizen in the name of free trade when we can't compete with China's slave labor.

How 30 years can change one's perspective. As a young teen I thought, wow, America, land of the free, home of the brave, best place on earth. Now? we've lost our way over the past 20 years.

The fate of the Soviet Union is our fate. They were bankruped by the USA's arms race and we'll be bankrupted by our own wars and consumption of cheap chinese imports.

The history of the socialist movement at the beginning of the 20th century has quickly been forgotten by the rich and powerful. The USA almost became a sister to the Soviets. The Great Depression pushed our society to the edge. The great inequalities that existed then have reappeared.

The country is filled with dying cities, towns, industries. Too many jobs outsourced, too much manufacturing sent overseas. There is no longer any social contracts to ensure that all Americans are protected from lost jobs or wages.

I've never been as pessimistic about our future as I have become over the past three years. I'm fearful of the future course of this nation and of western civilization. We are in decline.

This may sound contradictory after speaking about how many families earn more than $40,000 a year but the point is that I recognize that those numbers are an illusion. My dad earned $120 a week back in 1963 working in a lumber mill and could support a family of four kids, own a small house, a car. That was about $6,200 a year. In todays dollars that would be an income of $62,000 and it takes two workers to make that income in an attempt to have a similar living standard and then we don't get the company pensions etc.

Credit cards, home equity loans, these are just drugs used to numb the American to the real loss in income until it is too late to wake up and recognize that our leaders have sold us downt he river.

Driving around the USA over the past 7 months of my sabbatical I see thousands of small, struggling towns, some with houses you can't give away and others with home prices that rival L.A.

All the jobs revolve around consumption. Yes there are still some manufacturing jobs but for how long? Of course with the decline of the dollar we'll someday be the new China as our workers work pennies an hour. I'm not oblivious to the fact that 80% of the American workers, even those earning $100,000 a year are struggling with high home prices, income taxes, property taxes, insurance costs, medical coverage, debt payments while the richest 1% own two or three multi-million dollar vacation homes.

Overall I think most of the people on HP are concerned about more than just home prices but the whole future of our society and social justice.

Thanks again.; December 06, 2006 12:58 AM
Anonymous said...: Cheer up realtors... here's a chance to earn a 10% commission!!!
From the Voice of San Diego:

Rover's Realtors

A Florida company that manufactures mansions for pooches has an offer for real estate professionals looking for new revenue sources in tough housing markets: 10 percent commission.

And that's not something to scoff at -- the houses sell for $10,500 to $100,000. Compare a 10 percent commission on that sale -- all of which a single agent would take home -- to a traditional home sale, where the buyer's and seller's agents each take home about 2.5 percent of the sale price.

There aren't any San Diego retailers listed on the site, but a handful of the canine castles have made their way to California through a few L.A.- and Orange County-area distributors.

Here's what the company's founder had to say in a recent Newhouse News story:

"We know that in many areas the market has gone to the dogs, and the good news for Realtors is, so have we," jokes Stacy Small, 37, who along with her partner Donald Gorbach, 48, a veteran real estate broker, founded Doggie Mansions this past summer. "The housing market has been pretty slow and it's difficult to make money in a down market, and it occurred to both of us that this was a way we can have a sales force in place."

The mansions, according to a Doggie Mansions press release, measure about 48 square feet and are built to match their owners' home -- whether Mediterranean, Tudor, New England, or a custom design.

-- KELLY BENNETT

Friday, December 1, 2006 11:32 AM PST; December 06, 2006 2:41 AM
Anonymous said...: Question: I own some physical gold and silver and quite a bit of stock in gold companies (ABX, GG). I read something about not having your money in equities that are U.S. dollar based. Since ABX and GG are traded on U.S. exchanges and priced in U.S. dollars, does that mean that if the dollar tanks, so do these stocks. The suggestion to get into Euro's - does that mean owning European gold stocks priced in Euro's is safer than U.S. gold stock priced in U.S. dollars? I can't hardly see how is would be a downside to own a U.S. gold stock simply because its priced in U.S. dollars ... wouldn't it price rise with gold and not decline with the dollars decline? Help me understand.; December 06, 2006 12:34 PM
Anonymous said...: Well, the bar has been raised for real estate sales...

CNBC's Diann Olnick just did a piece about supermodels being used to show properties in Manhattan. Where'd the idea come from? Well, The Donald, of course!

Gary Swan can't compete with a supermodel... I forsee starvation in his future... or doghouse sales...; December 06, 2006 1:01 PM
Anonymous said...: FoxWoodLief wrote:

I appreciate your plight. For years I held the idea that more people were overpaid than underpaid but those sentiments have shifted over the past five years as the globalist agenda has slaughtered the purchasing power of the middle class while the richest .01% have seen incomes increase 600-700% (from the economist mag).

Makes you wonder what short-sighed bozo decided to sell out the American citizen in the name of free trade when we can't compete with China's slave labor.

Agreed!

The fate of the Soviet Union is our fate. They were bankruped by the USA's arms race and we'll be bankrupted by our own wars and consumption of cheap chinese imports.

The history of the socialist movement at the beginning of the 20th century has quickly been forgotten by the rich and powerful. The USA almost became a sister to the Soviets. The Great Depression pushed our society to the edge. The great inequalities that existed then have reappeared.

That is correct. Most people would benefit if they understood history a little better and knew that the seeds of a socialist revolution were not planted by some radical on a college campus, but by the results of uncontrolled capitalism.

The country is filled with dying cities, towns, industries. Too many jobs outsourced, too much manufacturing sent overseas. There is no longer any social contracts to ensure that all Americans are protected from lost jobs or wages.

I've never been as pessimistic about our future as I have become over the past three years. I'm fearful of the future course of this nation and of western civilization. We are in decline.

Wow! We agree more than I thought. Pardon my hostility at times. I too am very fearful about our economic future and the direction in which this nation is headed.

Thanks for the great post!; December 06, 2006 1:16 PM
Roccman said...: WASHINGTON (Reuters) - One in seven Mexican workers have left their country
and are working in the United States, an immigration study said on Tuesday.
http://news. yahoo.com/ s/nm/20061206/ us_nm/immigratio n_us_mexico_ dc_1; December 06, 2006 1:33 PM
Roccman said...: Flirting With Fascism on CNN Headline News
Host Glenn Beck threatens Muslims with concentration camps

12/5/06

The New York Times (12/4/06), profiling new CNN Headline News host Glenn Beck, called him "brash" and "opinionated, " with an "unfiltered approach." The conservative talk-radio host-turned- cable news announcer, the paper reported, "take[s] credit for saying what others are feeling but are afraid to say."

The Times mentioned one of the things Beck has said recently, to newly elected U.S. Rep. Keith Ellison (D-Minn.), a Muslim: "Sir, prove to me that you are not working with our enemies." But as press critic Eric Alterman pointed out (Altercation, 12/4/06), as offensive as that question is, it doesn't begin to suggest the poisonousness of Beck's rhetoric about Muslims.

On his August 10 radio show, distributed by Clear Channel's Premiere Radio Networks, Beck told listeners, "The world is on the brink of World War III," then issued this warning:

All you Muslims who have sat on your frickin' hands the whole time and have not been marching in the streets and have not been saying, 'Hey, you know what? There are good Muslims and bad Muslims. We need to be the first ones in the recruitment office lining up to shoot the bad Muslims in the head.' I'm telling you, with God as my witness... human beings are not strong enough, unfortunately, to restrain themselves from putting up razor wire and putting you on one side of it. When things—when people become hungry, when people see that their way of life is on the edge of being over, they will put razor wire up and just based on the way you look or just based on your religion, they will round you up. Is that wrong? Oh my gosh, it is Nazi, World War II wrong, but society has proved it time and time again: It will happen.; December 06, 2006 1:37 PM
Roccman said...: Beck went on to say:

You want the profiling to stop? Then, here's an idea. Stop murdering innocent people. Stop excusing the people who do. You do that for a while, and I guarantee you won't have any more problems at the airports. Stop blowing stuff up and the world just might be your oyster. Otherwise, it's going to be like that movie, The Siege. You remember that movie?

********The Muslims will see the West through razor wire if things don't change.**********; December 06, 2006 1:38 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: http://www.321gold.com/editorials/
daughty/daughty120606.html

Mogambo Has Out Done Himself today.
wi; December 06, 2006 5:10 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Sorry, here is his Home Page.

The Name of the Editoral is:

The Earthling insanity 'end-game'

www.321gold.com; December 06, 2006 5:12 PM
Jip said...: stuck in pa,

Your situation sounds like the one we have in LA. ESPECIALLY when it comes to the schools. To add insult to injury, I think the pols are using schools and police as tools to squeeze more $$ from taxpayers....; December 06, 2006 7:54 PM
Anonymous said...: HEY,,

applications for new homes rise to 7 month high

rally in homebuilders (up 29% over last few months)

citigroup "rallying much sooner then expected"

they are RAISING price targets for 13 homebuilders today

READ it all on bloomberg for yourself

you hpers wont posrt this, as your all to biased and have the blinders on

you are very late to the homes are crashing party, that was a year ago-- were already bottoming

still calling for 40% decrease in median home prices next year Ha, they will be flat to higher in a year on average, you all will all be the last to know, and saying I dont get it; December 06, 2006 8:37 PM
Anonymous said...: Housing crash article. Funny to see the percent loss on the side of the article..

http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/06/business/06leonhardt.html; December 06, 2006 9:16 PM
Anonymous said...: kilobar,

I agree- STICK WITH THE ECONOMISTS-just as you say

the majority of the ECONOMISTS recently polled by the wall street journal agreed that the worst of housing was already behind us!!!!

google it for yourself

and the info from my post was off a bloomberg story today NOT a salesman

not simply a 1 month interest rate rally, youre talking your book, as you say-- mortgage apps have been steadily increasing over the last recent while and now theyre at a 7 month high, how does that jive with doom and gloom to come

this weeks housing numbers showed 140 plus area gaining in value, vs 40 or so declining- wouldnt know that i=on this site would you

supply is shrinking in the vast majority of metro areas (theres a lot of places outisde phoenix, but you wouldnt know that here)

look at housingtracker.net and see for yourself the TRUTH, invenortys been shrinking for a while to

MAn you are all so dense and refuse to see reality and facts

I was quick to say housing is due to correct when supply was going up, mortgage applications down, interest rates up , and overbullishness existed in the market

it cuts both ways, now these are currently reversing , why cant you all look at things objectively

and the massive 29% rally in the homebuilder index over the last 3 months in the face of retail bearishness is actually another fact to consider in that a smaller number of institutional accounts with more money ( the smart money) must have bought off a larger number of retail bears (like you all)

just calling the facts, no bias , its just asort of funny to see so many rah rahs that only want to filter facts out in support of their view in one place...

no hard feelings, but gotta call it as it is, its looking more then a bottom then a top, and no one in there right mind can look at all these supply and demand numbers recently and say that shows a precipitous deterioration in the market....; December 06, 2006 11:36 PM
Anonymous said...: but no one ever told me, it might lead to erectile disfunction?; December 07, 2006 4:31 AM
Anonymous said...: speaking of erectile disfunction....where's borka?; December 07, 2006 4:51 AM
Anonymous said...: Mish,

The gauntlet has been thrown:

http://slcrealestate.blogspot.com/2006/12/commercial-construction-will-absorb.html; December 07, 2006 5:47 AM
Anonymous said...: Wait a minute! Are you telling me there is a housing bubble?

"Based on current performance, 2006 is on track to be one of the worst ever for subprime loans, according to UBS AG. “We are a bit surprised by how fast this has unraveled,” says Thomas Zimmerman, head of asset-backed securities research at UBS. Roughly 80,000 subprime borrowers who took out mortgages packaged into securities this year are behind on their payments, the bank says."

80,000 non performing loans. My my. Who would have thought?; December 07, 2006 8:13 AM
Anonymous said...: "the majority of the ECONOMISTS recently polled by the wall street journal agreed that the worst of housing was already behind us!!!!"

And as we all know, economists are NEVER wrong. Were these the same economists that were predicting a year ago that home prices would contnue to escalate 20% a year for the next 100 years?

"just calling the facts, no bias , its just asort of funny to see so many rah rahs that only want to filter facts out in support of their view in one place..."

That pretty much describes the NAR.

"no hard feelings, but gotta call it as it is, its looking more then a bottom then a top, and no one in there right mind can look at all these supply and demand numbers recently and say that shows a precipitous deterioration in the market.... "

Yes! you have proven without a doubt that prices will coninue to go up at a rate of 30% a year! Hope you lose your shirt, idiot!; December 07, 2006 11:21 AM
Anonymous said...: "still calling for 40% decrease in median home prices next year Ha, they will be flat to higher in a year on average, you all will all be the last to know, and saying I dont get it "

90% of the people in L.A. cannot afford the $600,000 crap boxes in the ghetto, and that's the real issue, you moron. That's what you Bush-bots don't seem to get because you are so out of touch.; December 07, 2006 12:25 PM
Anonymous said...: I never said prices will go up 30% a year- i dont own in crazy areas like phoenix or ca or wherever

however the national average median housing price will be flat to highr one year from today..

YOU are the idiot if you think the national =median will go down 40% or whatever--and were not tlking your neighbors hous in orange county- do you even know what national median means..

youre insulting someone who has TONS more common sense and experience then you, why dont you wake up; December 07, 2006 3:25 PM
Anonymous said...: kilobar,

you are a little more reasonable then most here- I said about ten times my predicition is flat to higher national median in one year, whats yours

ALSO----the mortgage bankers association which YOU quote is the source of the latest numbers that show new purchase applications at seven year high( and is a good statistical sample of about 50% of all loans)

for all you tinfoil hat conspitracy guys here, no they arent biased, jsut an index, and they were just a quick to slow the slowdown an mortgage apps earlier in the year

finally kilobar, I think any news source I quote (other then guru keith LOL hes not biased) will be attacked--- but having worked as a trader on wall street for many years I can assure you that everyone has a bloomberg terminal on there desk and just looked at as market coverag, not some mouthpiece-- remember traders dont care which way a mrket goes they take either side , and they all have bloomberg..; December 07, 2006 3:33 PM
Anonymous said...: sorry seven month high in apps, typo; December 07, 2006 3:34 PM
Anonymous said...: kilobar,

could be so in the dever market, im talking natl avg..

I agree that one piece of data on its own isnt all that convincing...but in this case in my opinion its not simply one data set, you have to look at the context of the market here, its generally EXTREMELY bearish, and any data that has trickled out as of late doesnt eve come close to the bearish "things are accelerating to the downside" mantra , on both the supply and demand side on average-- thus percetion differs from current reality in very bearish market.. looks like a bottoming

Again ive been talking natonal average, not california or denver etc

I remember being recruited for a trading prosition and at the time oil was about 8$ a barrel- well I was at the last round of interviews and they asked me to put myself on the line and make one strategic trading predicition--- well I said id structure the group to be long oil --- I DIDNT get the job they looked at me like I was crazy, like most here do when I say that wait a minute a lot of the factors that led to a weak housing market are reversing and certainly not accelerating, you get the idea... its tough to be the lone voice when youre looking at numbers not the crowd..sure you understand, its amazing that many here call me an idoit though without looking at anything but the latest magazine covers talking about option arm illiquid investors in Phoenix- and many wouldnt have a clue how to take a statistically based trading position (you not being one of them)

Good luck with CTA thing

yes, and anyone can mine data, thats not me, its more prevalent with keith though, youd agree; December 07, 2006 4:10 PM
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Anonymous said...: No question things are slowing down. In Toronto, presales are dead. New developments are being cancelled. The big CityPlace fiasco of which I am critic, http://www.cityplacetoronto.com will likely not be completed as planned. This marks the second time this land was supposed to be developed but left half done. 30 years ago it was to be offices then the market tanked leaving just the CN tower with space around it. Today the condo "city within itself" CityPlace project will likely sit half done. All the "park space" the developer promised did not even begin. What you have is a few tall condo towers on dirt lots between the freeway and railroad tracks. If thats not signs of a hot market hitting the skids I dont know what is.; December 07, 2006 4:38 PM
Anonymous said...: but wasnt toronto one of those super quick rise markets??why is it surprising then, cant go straight up forever..

there are other housing markets that are much more stable, and things there are pretty much staus quo...; December 07, 2006 5:21 PM
Anonymous said...: only if they paid me enough....; December 07, 2006 10:22 PM
Anonymous said...: The perils of sub-prime lending have spread from foreclosures to mortgage lenders closing down.
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/subprime-lender-ownit-mortgage-shuts/story.aspx?guid=%7BF201AE5C-F0D5-4DE6-8471-197B09864C5C%7D

From Marketwatch yesterday

NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Ownit Mortgage Solutions, a California company that described itself as one of the top 15 lenders to homeowners with weak or no credit histories, has shut down, citing "the current unfavorable conditions of the mortgage industry."
.......
.......

"Effective Dec. 5, Ownit closed its doors, and we are no longer able to fund or process your loans," the company said on a recorded telephone message. "We apologize for any inconvenience."
Ownit ran out of cash needed to meet its obligations to repurchase loans from investment banks and others who bought them in the secondary market, people in the industry said. The banks, which convert the loan payments into mortgage-backed securities for sale to investors, can force the original lenders to repurchase loans if the mortgage borrowers default.

So loans get made, they get packaged as an MBS and sold,but when they go bad, the buyer of the MBS can and does force the selling institution, Ownit in this case, to buy it back.. But they have no money.
So I ask myself, what happens to the MBS holder now ? who's going to make good on MBS that wasn't up to spec - I suppose they took out some insurance, a derivative of some sort - ahhhh but the seller of the insurance - did he lay off the bet too.

The unravelling starts.. Should be fun.

O yeah mish had this story on his blog too.

-K; December 08, 2006 3:28 AM
Anonymous said...: Condo auction on Saturday in Tampa. 40 units to be sold with no reserve. What will the market decide?; December 08, 2006 3:51 AM
Anonymous said...: Ann from Arabia...

You can meet allot of middleaged boyz on the web. NBC's Dateline should be able to set you up...; December 08, 2006 3:56 AM
Anonymous said...: Foxwoodlief -

Your "how 30 years can change one's perspective" post.

A keeper.

Yes, things were different 30 years ago. I earned slightly above minimum wage, and my job brought me good benefits. I could rent a small apartment in a decent neighborhood, pay a note on a 2yo car, cover the utilities, even eat out occasionally. I could go to the doctor if I got sick.

I earn considerably above minimum wage now. No benefits at all, not nearly enough income to save or get ahead. I can't get sick. My teeth are in awful shape. We shop at the thrift stores. Granted, I was single back then and a single parent now, but still. No mortgage and no car payment or credit card bills, no cable TV, no expensive habits or hobbies. Tried going back to school, but as a single parent with a special needs child I couldn't swing it.

I earn more than I did back then, and it buys much, much less. If I didn't have the house, I wouldn't be able to rent an apartment. The income of so many of us without advanced degrees hasn't kept up with inflation. We have regressed.

There are no factory jobs any more like I used to work 30 years ago. You rarely find a job with benefits; I keep looking. I have a job I love and I'm good at it, and it's necessary. But we haven't had a raise in years, the field is being gradually outsourced to India...

I don't want something for nothing. I don't expect to get rich. I just want decency. The politicians won't raise minimum wage, and people just get poorer. Where will it end? It isn't possible for everybody to "improve" themselves.

Is America really going to keep throwing all of us away??? That's what it feels like. Somebody's gotta do the scut work, do we deserve to starve? Not to mention it can't be good for nat'l security to outsource all this stuff. Do we even MAKE anything here any more? DO anything? Or grow any of our food?

I'm afraid the crap is going to hit the fan with this housing bubble thing. It won't take the roof from over our heads, thank G*d. But I am truly frightened about what might happen with the economy in the next few years. We're barely hanging on.

We've got enough acreage to grow a lot of our own food. Maybe I ought to till it and plant it come spring. I am that scared; I'm starting to think like one of those survivalists. Heck, maybe I oughtta sell the little truck and buy a mule and a wagon. Upkeep is less, and hay is cheaper than gas.

To all of you folks who talk about the hundreds of thousands you've made, and what you're doing with your investments, I honestly don't envy you. Some people get rich, some don't, that's life. I hope it cushions you if the crap hits the fan like I fear it might. We'll be eating eggs from our own hens and weeding our 2 acre kitchen garden, I think :-/.; December 08, 2006 4:15 AM
Anonymous said...: reality sink!!!; December 08, 2006 5:44 AM
Anonymous said...: Sebring Capital Partners
a Texas-based subprime lender with a Denver-area office, falls prey to the rising rate of defaults in another sign of the industry's trouble.

Atlanta-based NetBank last month closed its subprime lending unit and transferred most of its employees to another company. H&R Block is seeking a buyer for its Option One Mortgage Corp., a subprime lender. Key Corp. is selling its subprime Champion Mortgage business.

Eight percent of subprime borrowers are at least 60 days late on their mortgage payments, according to a UBS analysis of loans packaged and sold as securities. That's up from 4.5 percent a year ago.

http://www.denverpost.com/
business/ci_4785136; December 08, 2006 6:44 AM
Anonymous said...: Quote of the day from Mish,

"This should be a huge wake up call to individuals playing the "Greater Fool" game and even more so to hedge funds leveraged up 15 times in derivative plays thinking there will be time for an orderly exit. Well there won't. One day out of the blue we are going to go from record low volatilities to lock limit down three days in a row. The carnage is going to stun even bears like myself...."

Yup....inbound.; December 08, 2006 6:51 AM
Anonymous said...: S&P just downgraded Washington Mutual due to it exposure to subprime loans, which have had accelerated default rates of late.; December 08, 2006 7:01 AM
Anonymous said...: Excellent post's foxwoodlief!; December 08, 2006 1:53 PM
Anonymous said...: [b]Soft landing?[/b]
City analysts greeted the BoE's figures by suggesting that the UK housing market could be undergoing a "soft landing", following five interest rate rises since November 2003.
"The Bank of England should take heart from the mounting evidence that the housing market has achieved a soft landing," said Gavin Redknap, economist at Standard Chartered bank.
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Anonymous said...: Hey, Mish should resell his posts for use here...; December 08, 2006 2:25 PM
Anonymous said...: Out goes the tide. Bad Blood over Bad Loans.

And Lehman Brothers Inc. (LEH ) is trying to recoup $20 million on toxic loans bought years ago from Beverly Hills Estates Funding Inc., whose principal, Charles Elliott Fitzgerald, is believed to have fled the country to a South Pacific island. "While the speculation is that he's offshore, we don't have any leads to his whereabouts," says Michael Wachtell...

This guy fled to a South Pacific Island? HAHAHA!!! This is just the beginning.; December 08, 2006 7:54 PM
Anonymous said...: Why are interest rates this low, 6.11%?

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2006/12/08/AR2006120800744.html; December 08, 2006 9:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Ha! I can get better rates than KB home.

KB Home has received notices of default from US Bank for seven sets of its senior and senior subordinated notes that US Bank is the successor trustee for, the company said Monday.

The letters state that KB Home is in default under the indentures because it has not delivered a copy of its Form 10-Q for its third quarter ended Aug. 31, 2006. The notes involved include its 7-1/4 percent Senior Notes due 2018, 6-1/4 percent Senior Notes due 2015, 5-7/8 percent Senior Notes due 2015, and 5-3/4 percent Senior Notes due 2014 and with respect to KB Home's 8-5/8 percent Senior Subordinated Notes due 2008, 7-3/4 percent Senior Subordinated Notes due 2011, and 9-1/2 percent Senior Subordinated Notes due 2011.

What a bunch of losers!; December 08, 2006 9:57 PM
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Anonymous said...: “We know from history that empires never survive, they always collapse. And when they collapse a void is created and more wars happen, and then a new empire emerges which usually isn’t any better than the last and could be a lot worse. I sure don’t want to see my daughter wear a veil. I’m not looking to have the Chinese run my country or anybody else. What we must do this time is something that’s never been done in history before; we must turn this empire into something new, something different. We must create a new model. So let’s not watch the empire collapse. Let’s instead transform it. Let’s transform it into something that represents the ideals that our Founding Fathers envisioned when they wrote the Declaration of Independence and the so many men and women over the centuries have died for in defending, so many of your brothers and sisters in the military have died to defend those principals. So let’s turn this country into something that truly represents those principals and take that out to the world as a model. The way we can do this, and the way we must do this is to go after the power base of the Corpratocricy” Click Here for Video; December 08, 2006 10:54 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith - Thanks for this forum! It's closing time - every new beginning comes from some other beginning's end. Following is one man's "compare and contrast" of the end of the USSR and the coming collapse of the USA - it's not just housing/credit it's the end of our empire. http://preview.tinyurl.com/yxt65f
Please read and let me know what you think. I'm thinking guns and ammo and silver and gold.; December 08, 2006 11:02 PM
Anonymous said...: Guns and ammo fer shur, kropotkin.

Make a couple of those guns good for rabbit and squirrel ;-).; December 09, 2006 12:48 AM
Anonymous said...: 225000 Perfect Home - Beautiful New Floors - Buy Now Get a Nintendo Wii

http://phoenix.craigslist.org/rfs/246112251.html; December 09, 2006 1:43 AM
Anonymous said...: Sub-prime mortgage bonds had their worst week of the year on concern about the failure of two lenders, the slowing housing market and the ability of borrowers to repay the loans, derivatives based on the securities suggest.

When sub-prime mortgage companies who service, or collect payments, on loans are shuttered, their failure is a bigger risk to bondholders than if a company that only lends shuts down.

This year ``is turning out to be a doozy of a year'' in terms of sub-prime loan quality and ``slowing home prices are no longer allowing borrowers to hide behind the covers of a rising housing market,''

http://www.bloomberg.com/
apps/news?pid=
20601009&sid=
aNrNjRjfwzfY&refer=bond; December 09, 2006 2:11 AM
Anonymous said...: Cracks in the Mortgage Market are Becoming Visible

While things couldn't be better on the top floors where the hedge-fund swells reside, down in the basement where speculative-grade mortgage borrowers live, fissures in the foundation are becoming visible.

One of the largest providers of mortgages to borrowers with marginal credit abruptly closed its doors earlier this week. Moreover, derivatives based on the lowest tier of subprime mortgage securities have been plummeting in price in recent days, sending the cost of insuring against these loans' default sharply higher. Thursday, stocks of major homebuilders also fell sharply as news of these dislocations in the mortgage market spread.

http://online.barrons.com/
public/article/
SB116554091799444154-
PbX7PvM9D2Eswws4UvBRWx3zFdQ
_20071208.html?
mod=9_0002_b_online_
exclusives_weekday_r1; December 09, 2006 2:18 AM
Anonymous said...: derivative contract called a "credit-default swap" — similar to an insurance policy — that will pay off if enough loans in the bond go bad.

The sophistication is remarkable right now," says Whalen. "You can profit in any scenario."
Whalen represents a new breed of investor: people who are using financial instruments to bet against "subprime" borrowers who have become home owners thanks to the increasing availability of easy credit.

http://www.azstarnet.com/
allheadlines/154853; December 09, 2006 2:25 AM
Anonymous said...: Fitch has now put the major subprime lender Ameriquest ( not Ameriprise and not Ameritrade) on Watch - oddly not Credit Watch or some such - seemingly the rating could stay as is, could go better, could go worse. I heard it on CNBC - Power Lunch - I can't find a press release link but here is a video link http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=151468011&play=1

In the CNBC segment I go the distinct impression that this is really serious for Ameriquest - kind of close the doors, sell themselves or bail out time - Ameriquest's response was quoted as "We are performing as well as or better than the rest of the industry in the current downturn".

If that's true, then what sort of state are the others in.. Close to that OWnit outfit that shut its doors two days ago ?

And no doubt when the provider of the CDO / derivative based insurance suddenly gets called on
to pony up because of the subprime lender default and can't make the payment ?

-K; December 09, 2006 2:37 AM
Anonymous said...: Sheesh, nice news from kbh Friday after the bell.

Oh ya, price should go up. ( drum roll ); December 09, 2006 2:40 AM
Anonymous said...: Am I the only one who sees "Ugly American" style of talk coming back into vogue in government circles ? Or maybe its the circumstances.. Here are the two examples I find disturbing:
1. Rumsfelds memo detailing his 39 steps to change course in Iraq.
http://www.nytimes.com/2006/12/03/world/middleeast/03mtext.html?bl&ex=1165554000&en=b622d9e53553e1ea&ei=5087%0A

Phrases like "reward good behavior", "pull their socks up", "taking our hand off the bicycle seat" are really pretty condescending and kinda rich coming from us who are in THEIR country and who are the ones with the monopoly on legal violence and unable to suppress the enemy's violence.

2. Paulsen talking about his agenda on his visit to China on CNBC today. It was all about what they should be doing - "opening capital markets", market reforms etc - all to head off protectionist pressures here. Sounds like he's going there to lecture them - that's a little reckless I thought when he's going to a country which has a trillion dollars of US assets - a country that's a little thin-skinned on matters of national sovereignty - that has long memories of national humiliations at the hands of foreign devils - if I was them, the temptation to "teach him a lesson" by selling off a few 10's of billions of Treasuries even if it hurt me too would be hard to resist.

Seemed like the bond market thought the same. After he spoke on CNBC the 2 year treasuries sold off (prices down, yield up ) raising the yield by almost 0.1 to 4.66. All the carefully nurtured easing scenario that looked likely to play out was wiped out in a few minutes.

Are these elite Americans living in another world - when Pax Americana ruled the waves - that they talk so arrogantly, oblivious to the fact that the Emperor has no clothes ?

-K; December 09, 2006 3:28 AM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: SK,

Clinton did the same thing. He raised import taxes of any country that refused GM Food (GM corn is in every thing from Pepsi to salsa to frozen dinners) and our Dairy products (our milk was illegal in most countries because of the hormones and antibiotics content). There was a tariff war going on during Clinton days over the international outrage over the exportation of our Frankin Food.

I call that throwing our weight around, as well.

It would seem that your examples are of life and death, but the both are actually. One a violent threat of wars, the other slow and insidious death by unknown disease and side effects. Oh yea, with children as the “Test Subjects”.

Anyway, my point, USA as world Police (world bully?)is nothing new and yea, I have noticed it.; December 09, 2006 12:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Good morning everyone,

Today's thought: let's do something REALLY radical.

Let's turn off the TV and think for ourselves.

Let's stop letting that thing run our lives.

It's the brainwashing mouthpiece of the beast system. We don't need it telling us what to think, what to buy, when and how to be sick.

Let's see it for what it really is.; December 09, 2006 1:20 PM
Anonymous said...: MoneyWeek:US housing market is different this time - it's worse; December 09, 2006 3:08 PM
Anonymous said...: Yahoo News:US subprime loans face trouble; December 09, 2006 3:09 PM
Anonymous said...: n a storybook ending, Matthew B. Cox might have abandoned his criminal ways, married the girlfriend he met in Nashville and settled into a business offering hope to underprivileged home buyers.

Instead, Cox reverted to the form that sparked an FBI investigation in Tampa and put him atop the U.S. Secret Service's most-wanted list for a trail of mortgage frauds across the South.

http://tinyurl.com/ye9tap; December 09, 2006 3:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Its a temporary drop.. Pedications are highest ever rates in 2008; December 09, 2006 5:40 PM
Anonymous said...: You can’t open a newspaper without coming across a story chronicling this swift, sharp increase in bad debts

The Dangers of Frankenstein Financing!; December 09, 2006 7:03 PM
Anonymous said...: Irvine-based mortgage lender New Century Financial Corp. said Friday it did nearly 12% fewer loans in November than a year earlier.; December 09, 2006 7:06 PM
Anonymous said...: The inevitable is happening.

After millions of fraudulent loan applications being processed, closed and then resold to unwary and unsuspecting foreign investors through U.S. government sponsored institutions such as Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and other major financial houses including banks, S&L’s and large publicly traded mortgage companies,
FOREIGN CENTRAL BANKS are shying away from fueling further liquidity in the U.S. housing market which has impacted the value of the dollar while Europe and Britain raise or maintain their interest rates respectively to prevent global financial panic.; December 09, 2006 7:27 PM
Anonymous said...: "MoneyWeek:US housing market is different this time - it's worse "

It's an old article!; December 10, 2006 7:17 AM
Anonymous said...: "Overall a bit more life in the housing market and in credit demand than might have been expected."
The rise in mortgage approvals follows figures from the Nationwide Building Society showing house prices were picking up following recent falls.
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Anonymous said...: "The rise in mortgage approvals follows figures from the Nationwide Building Society showing house prices were picking up following recent falls."

Looks like we are either in a mini rally or home prices will never go down to levels that are affordable to average income people. It's murder in Southern California and if something does not give in soon, I'm out of here or will just plan on renting for the rest of my life.; December 10, 2006 10:47 AM
Anonymous said...: RE: Nationwide Building Society reports uptick in mortgage approvals... increase in house prices..

Csn you provide a link for that report ? Nationwide was a Brit S & L outfit, jeez they even had passbooks. I know a lot of them took the demutualization route and joined the rest of the grubby Moneybags along High Street but offering loans in the USofA would be a Bridge Too Far across the pond for them IMO.

So any increase in mortgage applications with them would be a Brit phenomenon. But I could be wrong - hence the request for a link.

-K; December 10, 2006 1:28 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Chipping away at freedom

The country may be evenly split over ID cards but opposition to radio-based tracking is overwhelming.
Frank Fisher

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December 4, 2006 04:16 PM | Printable version

As the build-up towards ID cards implementation nears, the British public is increasingly sceptical of government claims on the usefulness and security of both the cards themselves, and the ID database. Today's poll by YouGov and The Telegraph demonstrates that not only are millions prepared to face fines and jail, rather than submit to scanning and fingerprinting, they're also a lot more clued up on the damage errors on the ID database may cause. Identity theft is problematic if the ID thief clones your Visa card, if your ID is switched at the database, half your life will be turned upside down - it's a credit to the public that they have grasped this when the Government seems unable to comprehend what a tempting target their ID database will be.

URL: http://tinyurl.com/yyzpml; December 10, 2006 5:23 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Life is not holding a good hand; Life is playing a poor hand well.
- Danish proverb; December 10, 2006 5:23 PM
Anonymous said...: I found this interesting.; December 10, 2006 5:48 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Buzz Kill,

Yes it is interesting.

The Death of the Dollar

In this age of instant communication, the government can’t hide the truth – at least not for long. So, no matter that they have stopped publishing M-3 money supply numbers, recognition that we are between a rock and a hard place is spreading.

++++++++++++++++

Like I said before on this forum. "We are stuck between a Gold Rock and a Hard Cash Place".
SWF; December 10, 2006 6:02 PM
Anonymous said...: Personally, I plan to ride out the coming financial $#it-storm in my fortress of TP.; December 10, 2006 6:28 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.; December 10, 2006 6:52 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.; December 10, 2006 6:53 PM
Anonymous said...: shhhh...; December 10, 2006 7:04 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Pic trouble,
TP Bubble,
Here I am,
Here I am to play!; December 10, 2006 7:06 PM
Anonymous said...: FMW, was it you who predicted KBH would be the first biggie homebuilder to go belly up?; December 10, 2006 7:19 PM
Anonymous said...: Cool new look, I guess you got your hair done.; December 10, 2006 7:20 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.; December 10, 2006 7:29 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: you who predicted KBH
*************
Wasn't me. I'm smart, but not that smart.
I think it was Kieth or Greg, not sure which.
hehehe
__________________

Thanks Strawman,
I got my hair done AND got my Xucking Fhristmas Tree Up today.
Pretty good for someone sitting at her desk IMO. (:; December 10, 2006 7:30 PM
Anonymous said...: Yeah, good job, every Amurkin needs a flastic puckin' Xmas tree.; December 10, 2006 7:37 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: lollolololo hehehhehe hahahaha
I really am glad you like it.; December 10, 2006 7:46 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: A Solder Speaks Out about the War

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig7/martin-p1.html; December 10, 2006 7:47 PM
Anonymous said...: Even the grunts are waking up. He has a lot on his mind. I don't blame him, I'd be pissed too.; December 10, 2006 7:54 PM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: yes.; December 10, 2006 7:59 PM
foxwoodlief said...: One question people still don't answer here, what does everyone think is a fair price per sq ft to build a house as well as to rent? I keep asking for comps and no one wants to talk about real costs.

Kind of like the Big Mac index for value in currencies. What does it cost to rent in your neck of the woods an apartment and how do we compare costs? Someone may say to me I can rent this over-priced house for less than owning (given) or I can rent for $700 a month but to own a house will cost me $2100 am month, great, but if you are renting a one bedroom apartment say 650 sq ft and the house is 2000 sq ft, is that a just comparison?

What does it cost to rent per sq ft a house, an apartment and what does it cost to build per sq ft in your neck of the woods? Why is this question so difficult for people to answer?; December 10, 2006 8:37 PM
Anonymous said...: new condo low rise
downtown orlando fl

600 sq feet rent $1,000.00 to $1,100.00

Zillow zestamate $222,000.00 or $370.00 sq ft

last sale according to tax record
$180,000.00 or $300.00 sq ft.

buy today $150,000.00 or $250.00 sq ft.; December 10, 2006 9:20 PM
Anonymous said...: US SWAPS-Spreads widen on jobs data, loan worries

Meanwhile, the two-to-10 year part of the swap curve flattened on Friday, as short-dated swap yields rose more than long-dated yields on diminishing expectations of the Fed lowering key short-term rate in early 2007.

"We believe that low interest rates and still abundant liquidity should pressure swap spreads to narrow in the short term," the Deutsche Bank analysts said.

In order words the Federal Reserve does not need to lower interest rate early next year because there are abundant of liquidity which is probably coming from Yen "carry trade"

Yet, Bernanke supports Paulson who blames China to hide from the fact that the speculation problems are coming from the abundant of liquidity in Yen "carry trade" which is the root cause of many of the economical problems around the globe.

But then again Yen "carry trade" has made allot of people rich so why bite the hand that feed you.

Ten to twenty years from now many historians will probably write that the US failed to solve the problems of global rebalancing because Bernanke and Paulson concentrated on Zhou Xiaochuan when instead they should have been concentrating on Toshihiko Fukui.; December 10, 2006 9:30 PM
Anonymous said...: Why is Bernanke and Paulson going to China to get Zhou Xiaochuan to float its currency more?

Yet, the Hong Kong dollar has remained pegged at about 7.80 to the US dollar, and the Saudi Arabia riyal has remained pegged at 3.75 to the US dollar.

Seems to be a double standard for the Hong Kong dollar and Saudi Arabia riyal.; December 10, 2006 9:54 PM
Anonymous said...: The Buzz Report.; December 10, 2006 10:42 PM
Anonymous said...: Carry Trade is when money is borrowed in a country with low interest rates such as Japan and invested in a country with high rates such as the US.

This is lucrative for investors and supports the dollar.

However it is attractive to speculators only if the currency in the country with high rates remains strong.

If it doesn't, gains from the differential in rates are wiped out by the depreciating currency.; December 10, 2006 10:57 PM
Anonymous said...: Oil producing countries have reduced their exposure to the dollar to the lowest level in two years and shifted oil income into euros, yen and sterling, according to new data from the Bank for International Settlements.; December 10, 2006 11:27 PM
Anonymous said...: BOJ needs to raise rate to slow down liquidity from Yen "Carry Trade".

A higher-valued Chinese yuan would help cut some of the U.S. trade deficit with the Asian emerging giant but it is not enough to resolve all the imbalances, a Treasury official said on Friday.

"It's a necessary but not sufficient condition to address the imbalances," said the official, who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity ahead of Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's mission to Beijing next week for economic talks.

"It's necessary but it, in and of itself...is not a silver bullet," the official said. "It alone will not bring about the resolution but it is a key part of that conversation."; December 10, 2006 11:49 PM
Anonymous said...: The job number for September's 148,000 level was revised up to 203,000, for an overall net upward revision of 42,000.

The more volatile but revision-resilient civilian employment figures are now posting an even more dramatic picture of recent strength. This measure of job growth soared by 277,000 in November, despite an even larger 437,000 surge last month that we expected would be at least partly reversed with a November undershoot. These gains continue to track above their two-year moving average for monthly growth.

Building a stronger case that the Fed should raise interest rate.; December 11, 2006 12:06 AM
FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...: Sunday, November 26, 2006
How To Screw Homebuyers And Doctor Statistics - A Re/Max Educational Series

http://tinyurl.com/yao7kq

Click on the photo to view what the data in a deceptive listing actually looks like before and after it was changed to reset the "Days on the Market" back to zero,.

as taught By
Re Max.; December 11, 2006 2:12 AM
Anonymous said...: In economic terms, China might be more vulnerable than the US because it is over-investing in growth but has a fragile financial structure.; December 11, 2006 3:46 AM
Anonymous said...: To PKK -

Replying to your reply, which was in another thread on 12/9.

We were able to get this little house and land by moving out of the big city to a depressed area. Lower income and reduced advancement prospects, definitely. The feeling of security, priceless.

Tried my darnedest to teach the kids the difference between what you need, and what you merely want. And how to get by with less, in case they have to. We have talked at length about stupid mortgages, paying too much, taking out second mortgages and putting your home at risk, etc. How greed gets a lot of people into big trouble.

The storm made me a little nuts, or more nuts, heh, and pushed in the direction of preparing to live decently off the grid if we must.

I'd rather be prepared for the worst unnecessarily, than unprepared. Esp. since we don't have the income or savings to be able to weather something like the Great Depression on money. If anybody thinks I'm kinda nuts, well, nobody ever died from embarassment [shrug].

That useful survival knowledge is out there, and it's free. Lots of stuff good to know even if you live in an apartment in town.

People should know how to stay alive if the crap hits the fan, if the stores are closed or empty, if their money is worthless. Most of us have room in our brains to keep it filed away, just in case.; December 11, 2006 7:22 AM
Anonymous said...: Hammm… Nice article… Interesting.
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http://gambling-horoscope.just2buy.com gambling horoscope; December 11, 2006 8:16 AM
Anonymous said...: really good art.

Droves say goodbye to Golden State

Housing is key

Nearly half of California's homeowners spend more than 30 percent of their income on housing -- significantly higher than in any other state, 2005 census data shows.

``Families just can't make it in the housing market,'' said Dowell Myers, a professor of urban planning and demography at the University of Southern California. ``Low-income families are being priced out of rentals, and middle-income families are being priced out of homeownership, and we don't know where they are going.''

Housing costs, including property taxes, also influence people who are more affluent. Stephen and Sarah Gallant moved back to Michigan this summer after nearly three years in Los Gatos, trading a $2 million house for one in Michigan that was about half the cost and double the size.

``It was all about lifestyle,'' said Stephen Gallant, who left a job as chief financial officer for Global Motorsport Group in Morgan Hill so the couple and their two boys could move back to a Detroit suburb. ``If I'm going to spend $1 million on a house as opposed to $2 million, that opens up a lot of purchasing power, the ability to go out and do other things.''; December 11, 2006 4:13 PM
Anonymous said...: To ALMOST 10 ACRES from PKK

I am visiting son in Colorado this
month. Probably staying for awhile.

Previous location Portland Oregon.
Something so fishy there in real
estate market. Needs investigation
for sure.

Family considering options. What
general part of country are you?

In our next economy, whatever it
will be called, we need accountability and reality built on
the normal human day and lifespan
and not on leveraging, which is an
attempt to borrow the life energy
of others, without their consent.
And it goes without saying, taking
into account real limits of the earth. PKK; December 11, 2006 4:14 PM
Anonymous said...: To PKK -

We are in Louisiana. I telecommute with a clerical type job. I'm not a RE agent and not affiliated with the listing below in any way.

Take a look at maps to orient yourself, then at realty sites and you would be surprised what you can get. No, I'd say you would be shocked. Yes, shocked. Stay 1+ hour from cities, walking distance to a small town if you can, say 3 miles or so. Look for SFH with 3+ acres. If you actually offer for one, keep in mind that the area is still very depressed, so offer low. All they can say is no.

This one is cute, certainly not brand-new but hey, asking under $150k, 3.5 acres in MS. That's more than I would pay but fairly typical for an older home on that size lot in the area, from what I know.

Watch out for flood zones. I'd stay 50+ ft above sea level if possible.

This is deep in the Bible Belt too, and that can take some getting used to.

Insurance has become expensive, esp. wind, flood and hail. Pick location carefully, consider having fire only or even being self insured if you're buying the place for cash.; December 11, 2006 6:14 PM
Anonymous said...: Hello, I'm Jamil Hussein, police captain in Iraq, international man of mystery, source of 621 fake AP news reports from Iraq and recipient of annual Dan Rather bizarro journalism award.

I confirm this story. All AP propaganda is true.; December 11, 2006 6:35 PM
Anonymous said...: http://today.reuters.com/news/articlenews.aspx?type=worldNews&storyid=2006-12-11T122358Z_01_L11639597_RTRUKOC_0_US-IRAN-HOLOCAUST.xml&src=rss&rpc=22

Heres an interesting tidbit.; December 11, 2006 6:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Spam attack! Buzz Saw visits the MLS.; December 11, 2006 7:30 PM
foxwoodlief said...: From England....[-] Text [+]

LONDON (Reuters) - House prices rose at their fastest annual rate in more than 1-1/2 years in October with prices in London leading the way, government data showed on Monday.

The Department for Communities and Local Government said house prices rose 8.6 percent year-on-year in October, up from 8.0 percent in September and the fastest annual rate since March 2005.

House price inflation in London accelerated to 10.6 percent from 9.0 percent in September -- its highest in more than two years.

"This confirms that the housing market, in London at least, continues to benefit from the boom in financial services -- a trend that is likely to continue in the near term as we enter bonus season," said Michael Every, senior strategist at RBC Capital Markets.

First-time buyers contributed to the upward momentum in October with house price inflation for those getting on the property ladder rising to 8.5 percent from 7.7 percent in September.

The government figures chime with recent surveys from mortgage lenders which show housing market activity has not been dampened by higher borrowing costs.

HBOS Halifax survey showed house prices rose last month at their fastest annual rate since March 2005 and Bank of England figures show mortgage approvals -- a lead indicator for the market -- remain near historic highs.

With two post of late, this one and a few weeks ago a post out of the Economist that showed home prices up in Australia with Perth up 48% could mean that there is still a lot of liquidity out there and that the markets still are inflating.

Remember both Australia and England have home values that have risen two to three times those levels of the USA if you recall other charts posted from the Economist.

Both countries showed a slight decrease in values only to surge forward again. I think maybe we'll see the same thing come next summer.; December 12, 2006 12:15 AM
Roccman said...: http://www.guardian .co.uk/russia/ article/0, ,1970064, 00.html

$20bn gas project seized by Russia

· Russia seizes control of world's biggest liquefied gas project
· Shell forced to give up controlling stake after pressure from Kremlin

Terry Macalister, Tom Parfitt in Moscow
Tuesday December 12, 2006

Guardian

Shell is being forced by the Russian government to hand over its controlling stake in the world's biggest liquefied gas project, provoking fresh fears about the Kremlin's willingness to use the country's growing strength in natural resources as a political weapon.

After months of relentless pressure from Moscow, the Anglo-Dutch company has to cut its stake in the $20bn Sakhalin-2 scheme in the far east of Russia in favour of the state-owned energy group Gazprom.

The Russian authorities are also threatening BP over; December 12, 2006 2:25 AM
Anonymous said...: EJ on the "12 Days of Christmas" Itulip style...

http://www.itulip.com/
forums/showthread.php?p=5198#post5198; December 12, 2006 2:56 AM
Anonymous said...: once AGAIN the weekly inventory in virtually all areas is sharply down for single family and condo-- its not even close, many more areas declined in inventory-

google for yourself or see housingtracker.net or anywhere you conspiracy theorists think isnt lying...

inventory has been steadily decreasing for months

new purchase mortgage applications hit 7 month high (google for yourself)

and finally such bearishness by builders has led to the ratio of housing staarts to existing sales pace to be the lowest since records recorded , almost 40 years!!!!

ie market can snap back faster then most think nationally ,, as supply NOT flooded by BEAARISH builders at this point

you all need to wake up and look at things as they are BEYOND az and CA.

and stop talking this summers news,, thats sooooo old ,, now things are looking more bullish in the market on average,, regardles oof your personal wishes for whatevere reason!!!; December 12, 2006 3:37 AM
Anonymous said...: if sellers were so desperate to get out before it got so much worse,, inventory wouldnt be declining rapidly on average,, would be increasing as sellers would want to sell to you or me now before things got so much uglier..

this aint happening, sorry folks; December 12, 2006 3:39 AM
foxwoodlief said...: Economist Mag Dec 9th issue, Bubble and squeak, says home prices rising again overseas, and that doesn't take currency values into account so in dollar terms the rise plus the devalued dollar makes our houses even less expensive.

New list for 2006 to 3Q, Demark up 23.3%, Ireland up 14.2%, Canada up 12.8%, South Africa up 12.7%, France up 12.5%, Belgium up 11.8%, Spain up 10.8%, New Zealand up 9.6%, Australia up 9.6%, Britain up 9.6%, the list goes on and does recognize that in those same markets some areas were flat, while others continue to rise.

It notes that in Australia prices rose rapidly in 2003, fell in late 2004/2005 and are no increasing with perth up 46% this year in the third quarter.

Looking at the price rise between 1997-2006, South africa up 327%, Ireland up 252%, Britain up 192%, Spain up 173%, Australia up 132%, France up 127%, Sweden up 123%, Belgium up 118%, Denmark up 115%, the USA up 100%.

Look at those numbers. Consider the rise in those countries and of course in Euros or pound sterling imagine the cost in dollars!

Think the US market doesn't have room to continue this madness? Barring WWIII I imagine as in Australia and New Zealand, both slowed, saw declines in their most expensive markets while the less expensive areas (like Perth) caught up, and then everyone starts rising again. The California syndrome here in the USA, our market always follows California, they export their ridiculous prices until they restore historic differences in price between them and the rest of us and then the march starts all over again.; December 12, 2006 6:35 AM
Roccman said...: http://signs- of-the-times. org/signs/ editorials/ signs20061211_ ThePsychopath27s Truth.php
============ ========= =====
Signs Editorial:

The Psychopath's Truth

Henry See
Signs of the Times
11 December 2006

If you are a reader of the Signs of the Times, chances are you are interested in coming to an understanding of the truth of both your own life and life on this planet.

While we may only be able to get better and better approximations of this truth, that is, as objective as possible descriptions of the world and ourselves, the dynamics at work in human relations on all levels, and what our role as individuals might be, at the heart of our lives there is a need to seek this truth.

Because we are like that, we tend to project the same state of mind on others. We can't possibly imagine a life without this deep-seated need for the truth. It then comes as a shock when we encounter people who have no such need and who's actions belie any words they might speak suggesting a common interest in truth seeking. It can often take years to make this discovery, depending upon how deep in the illusion we are living and whether or not we are surrounded by genuinely like-minded people on the same path who can share data and compare notes along the route.

One of our central concerns on this site is the question of psychopathy and pathologies. From our own run-ins with these types to their effect on society as a whole, as described in clinical detail in Political Ponerology by Andrew Lobaczewski, people of conscience are faced with a major problem.

And it is a problem that is not acknowledged, which aggravates the problem. How can we solve it if we don't admit it exists? One of the characteristics of the psychopath and other pathological types is that they have a different relationship to the truth than do people of conscience. We offer a short text below that illustrates this difference. It was left as a comment on the blog of a member of the Signs of the Times forum. http://thelegalalie n.blogspot. com/

I can't remember if truth ever meant much in my life. I can count on the fingers of one hand all the times when I really wanted to let someone know the truth, when it was extremely important. It is rare that I am lacking attention so much that I would attempt to attract it using this extreme, irrational and ineffective method.

With all that, I get very upset if in such situation I am 'found guilty' of telling the truth. I began to tell the truth when I understood that no one has any criteria that would allow to distinguish the truth from a lie, with a high degree of precision. This means that one can tell the truth without consequences, same as lying! It was a real discovery that opened many extra doors:

- if someone didn't like my truth, I could say it was a lie, and enjoy peace and quiet. - if someone didn't like my truth, I could maintain that it is truth, and fele [sic] proud of my principles. - if someone didn't like my lie, I could say it was truth, and enjoy the other persons's confusion. - if someone didn't like my lie, I could confirm it was a lie, and watch the other person felling is proud of his power of perception. - if someone liked my lie, I could say that it is nothing but the truth, and bask in the sun rays of another's person's happiness. - if someone liked my lie, I could say it is a lie, and have a nice juicy argument. - if someone liked my truth, I could say it was a lie, and enjoy the feeling of power and security. - if someone liked my truth, I could admit it is the whole truth, and enjoy openness and mutual understanding.

So it looks like I learned to use a truth as certain means, but still has no clue why anyone would need a truth as goal and an end, in and of itself.
** I usually say whatever comes to mind, without much thought as to whether it happen to be truth or lie. It is indeed very simple. Before, I used to wonder whether truth and lie have some special meaning and significance, but then, I settled on the thought that, from everything that is ever said, very little has any meaning and significance. However, if I get myself in the situation when what was said has great importance either for me, or for a person I am talking to - that's incredibly stressful. Then I have to think, and there is no time to be lazy. In such situations the truth brings about such an adrenalin [sic] rush, that no lie could stand the comparison.

A rather astonishing piece of reasoning, isn't it? The distinction between truth and a lie is a matter of predation: how will the author get what he or she needs?

There is no interest in truth as an abstract idea, as a noble goal, as something integral to one's life or being. It is merely a rush, a kick of adrenaline, a way to get high and overcome a certain boredom.

It is also interesting to note how the needs of the writer can so quickly shift. It is as if the many small "I"s of this person's personality are in continual flux, following an algorithm of predation, the aim of which can change from one moment to the next depending upon the interplay with the victim and the next necessary move that is needed to keep the prey in play in order to arouse the manipulative kick.

The writer is describing a mind-set that is far away from that of a person of conscience. Try, however, to see the actions of someone like Dick Cheney through this warped lens.

The same juggling of truth and lie is clear in the actions of the Bush regime. The lie is the constant, and the small dash of the truth is thrown out from time to time to get a reaction. Think of Rumsfeld's remark about the missile that hit the Pentagon or that Flight 93 was shot down.

DO you think Rummy was feeling the shot of adrenaline as he made them? Andrew Lobaczewski writes about the different mind-set of the essential psychopath. He suggests that normal people can "learn to speak their conceptual language" the way one would learn a foreign language.

In spite of their deficiencies in normal psychological and moral knowledge, they develop and then have at their disposal a knowledge of their own, something lacked by people with a natural world view.

They learn to recognize each other in a crowd as early as childhood, and they develop an awareness of the existence of other individuals similar to them. They also become conscious of being different from the world of those other people surrounding them.

They view us from a certain distance, like a para-specific variety. Natural human reactions - which often fail to elicit interest to normal people because they are considered self-evident - strike the psychopath as strange and, interesting, and even comical.

They therefore observe us, deriving conclusions, forming their different world of concepts. They become experts in our weaknesses and sometimes effect heartless experiments. The suffering and injustice they cause inspire no guilt within them, since such reactions from others are simply a result of their being different and apply only to "those other" people they perceive to be not quite conspecific.

Neither a normal person nor our natural world view can fully conceive nor properly evaluate the existence of this world of different concepts. A researcher into such phenomena can glimpse the deviant knowledge of the psychopath through long-term studies of the personalities of such people, using it with some difficulty, like a foreign language.

As we shall see below, such practical skill becomes rather widespread in nations afflicted by that macro-social pathological phenomenon wherein this anomaly plays the inspiring role. A normal person can learn to speak their conceptual language even somewhat proficiently, but the psychopath is never able to incorporate the world view of a normal person, although they often try to do so all their lives.

The product of their efforts is only a role and a mask behind which they hide their deviant reality. [Political Ponerology, pp. 127-128]

The "heartless experiments" noted by Lobaczewski call to mind the description given above of using truth for kicks and the pleasure described by the writer of the manipulations of his or her listener.

Imagine an intimate relationship with an individual like this. Your world would quickly become topsy-turvy, your inner compass completely out-of-whack with the shifts from truth to lies.

This chaos manifests in our world, too. All around us, words and actions do not match. Our leaders tell us one thing through their servants in the media, while the facts on the ground offer a widely contrasting counterpoint. The effects on society are the same as in a couple:

The moral compass of people of conscience becomes disoriented. Individuals can no longer tell up from down, right from wrong, truth from falsehood. And after a certain time, they no longer care. They give up. They can no longer make sense of it all, so they turn it off.

Over the years, we have received many emails from readers of this site thanking us for our work on psychopathy. These people have been brutally scarred by their relations with individuals such as the writer above. They thought the problem was theirs, that they weren't doing something right, that they lacked a capacity for understanding the other person. After learning about psychopathy, they finally understood that the problem lay elsewhere, it lay in the predator who had come into their lives.

The same process occurs on the social scale. People who come to an understanding of psychopathy and political ponerology are then able to make sense of the world. They are equipped with tools that most people do not have. They can begin a process of becoming inoculated against the effects of the special knowledge the psychopath has of the psychology of normal people.

They are then able to shine a light on this, oh, so real problem and help others to begin working on their own mental hygiene. It feels as if events are speeding up, that the train of humanity's illusions is getting ready to crash into the wall of reality, leaving more dead and injured than we can possibly guess. While we might not be able to avoid the coming accident - though can we really call it an accident when the outcome can be foreseen? - those who can see its arrival may have a better chance of surviving.; December 12, 2006 1:15 PM
Anonymous said...: Would it be correct to assume that most people here are in their 40s, many of you divorced and a high % of you are contractors?

I worked with a lot of people like you who were absolutely paranoid. I remember one guy who refused to use credit cards cuz he was convinced the government would track him. Another considered debt to be the crime of the century.

It was amazing hearing these dudes talk to each other, it's what I imagine a meeting of the John Birch Society would sound like. Doom and gloom is always around the corner. Nefarious government agencies are always plotting something. Rampant paranoia, just like it is here.

In reality these people were paranoid losers. These losers hated women, probably since they got burned badly in their divorce. I see pelnty of that here, especially in the thread on Sex and the City type women buying condos.

I'm not sure whether to laugh or cry at you.; December 12, 2006 4:40 PM
Mammoth said...: Foxwoodlief asked on Sunday, “What does it cost to rent per sq ft a house?”

Still collecting numbers? My rental costs $1.10 per sq. ft., per month. Paid $129 per sq. ft. for the house in 1997. Now Zillows for $287K, or $293 per sq. ft.

It would be a mistake for someone to buy this house today for the purpose of renting out.

‘nuff said?
-Mammoth; December 12, 2006 4:57 PM
foxwoodlief said...: Thanks Mammoth. So many questions get left unanswered on this site as people only want to preach the world is coming to an end without specific facts, or new facts. Kind of like the Bible, "There shall be wars, famines, earthquakes" and so every one is a sign of the end but we've had them for millions of years. Now if California broke off into the sea or Yellowstone erupted and such they might (and I say might) get my attention!

So at $1.10 a sq ft my house would rent for $3710 and I own it for 1/3 of that price so would HPers say owning was better than renting or that I bought in a bubble? (Bought in 2005 in Austin)

Would some people think $1.10 a sq ft to rent a BUBBLE? Is that the high, medium or low end of your market? Just like buying a house there are three markets, Class A, B, C. As I said here in Austin downtown rentals for Class A can go as high as $1.90 a sq ft and Class C as low as $0.50 a sq ft. It seems to buy a house here runs from a low of $80,000 (about $66 a sq ft unless foreclosures which I've seen here for as low as $45 a sq ft) to a Class A house for about $125 a sq ft (loaded but not in the primo locations) and homes in premium locations (Tarry Town, on Lake Austin, Eanes, etc) as high as $300 a sq ft.

Where do you live?; December 12, 2006 6:26 PM
foxwoodlief said...: Economist Mag Dec 9th issue, Bubble and squeak, says home prices rising again overseas, and that doesn't take currency values into account so in dollar terms the rise plus the devalued dollar makes our houses even less expensive.

New list for 2006 to 3Q, Demark up 23.3%, Ireland up 14.2%, Canada up 12.8%, South Africa up 12.7%, France up 12.5%, Belgium up 11.8%, Spain up 10.8%, New Zealand up 9.6%, Australia up 9.6%, Britain up 9.6%, the list goes on and does recognize that in those same markets some areas were flat, while others continue to rise.

It notes that in Australia prices rose rapidly in 2003, fell in late 2004/2005 and are no increasing with perth up 46% this year in the third quarter.

Looking at the price rise between 1997-2006, South africa up 327%, Ireland up 252%, Britain up 192%, Spain up 173%, Australia up 132%, France up 127%, Sweden up 123%, Belgium up 118%, Denmark up 115%, the USA up 100%.

Look at those numbers. Consider the rise in those countries and of course in Euros or pound sterling imagine the cost in dollars!

Think the US market doesn't have room to continue this madness? Barring WWIII I imagine as in Australia and New Zealand, both slowed, saw declines in their most expensive markets while the less expensive areas (like Perth) caught up, and then everyone starts rising again. The California syndrome here in the USA, our market always follows California, they export their ridiculous prices until they restore historic differences in price between them and the rest of us and then the march starts all over again.; December 12, 2006 6:27 PM
Mammoth said...: $3,710/mo. sounds a bit high for Austin, but you are a better judge of what the market there will bear.

Not sure if $1.10 falls into the high, medium or low end of the local market here in the Seattle area (north of the city), but $1,080/mo for a 3 BR, 1BA house in this neighborhood is on the low side.

Yes I could probably charge more, but these are good tenants who have lived there 5 years so it is worthwhile keeping them happy.

Why get greedy, put more weight on these people’s shoulders and risk losing good tenants? The next tenants may be a disaster; there are enough bad tenant horror stories out there.

The rent + $40 makes the house payment so it is negative cash flow, but when you consider the tax voodoo this amount probably washes out.

Cheers,
-Mammoth; December 12, 2006 8:08 PM
Anonymous said...: Fed keeps rates the same for 4th time? WTF?

Full Story at Yahoo; December 12, 2006 8:21 PM
foxwoodlief said...: Thanks mammoth. My wife is originally from Vancouver BC, so expensive up there as well, even when we lived there during college in the late 70s.

I'm sure Austin, like Seattle, has rents all over the map. Where I live in SW Austin you get more house for the dollar and rents are not as high as you'd get for the same properties downtown or on the lake. Still, being only 9 miles from the heart of downtown I think the trade off is more than worth it.

Friends have a rental (they live in Phoenix where we just moved from in May) here in Lakeway, another 9 miles west but by Lake Travis and the medium price of a home out there is one of the highest in the Austin, and it is about 2400 sq ft and they rent it for $2100 a month. Their first mortgage without taxes or insurance is $1200 a month. With taxes and all I think they break even since taxes here are high.

Of course like anything, the larger the place the lower the price per sq ft. In central Austin or even out here in SW, class A space under 1400 sq ft does get about $1 a sq ft, as it seems to be in most places I've lived (Phoenix, Tampa). I'd make money renting this house out at $0.75 a sq ft, which for an upscale home I think is more than reasonable. I've calculated what mortgage payments would be if people bought with less than 20% down on the few remaining homes being built and they'd run about $2400 a month without taxes (at least $12,000 a year without a homestead exemption) or insurance (we pay $1300 a year plus $150 for flood-we are on a hill and not in a flood plain but since hurricanes do come through central Texas we worried that too much water running down the hill (since it is mostly solid rock so won't soak in) could come into the back of our house if they got 12 inches in say 24 hours, just didn't want to take a chance) so PITI on the average house in my neighborhood would range from the $2500 a month to about $4,000 with the middle being around $3400 pm with PITI. Of course most of my neighbors put more than 20% down (one kid from SD put 75% down so his taxes are higher than his PI pm).

Lots of class B&C houses and apartments and they all rent for less than $.090 per sq ft and as low as $0.45 per sq ft. By the University some small apartments go for $1.90 a sq ft, so yes, all over the map. Still, considering rent, what is better? Paying $1 a sq ft to own or $1 a sq ft to rent?; December 12, 2006 9:50 PM
blogger said...: the comment above was posted by Greg Swann under my username. to find out if it's the sock puppet or me, just click on the poster name and see their profile. Mine shows

Blog Name Team Members
Housing Panic - The Housing Bubble Blog with Attitude

If you'd like to personally tell Greg to F off, his phone number is 602.740.7531

Don't visit his blog - he's just desperate for traffic and that's why he does what he does poor sap. He's got nothing to do now that his business is in the tank.

Greg - good luck on the job search and with the counseling.; December 12, 2006 10:43 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith, Do you have evidence of this? Greg Swann denies ever leaving a comment on a bubble blog in his entire life.; December 12, 2006 11:29 PM
Anonymous said...: I am a Denver bubble sitter renting cheap in a nice neighborhood (wash park). The neighborhood's price per square foot ranges from 230-330 depending on the quality of the home. The house next to me was for sale for about 4 months. Via Zillow and city property records it is roughly 1000 square feet, and from its appearance it looks about average. Recently it was purchased by an LLC for 750K (zillow valued it at 449k). Someone has moved in with alomost no furniture and junky cars (nothing against junky cars). Does this stink of some kind of mortgage fraud?

Orbilius; December 13, 2006 1:21 AM
foxwoodlief said...: Was reading about Tokyo's bubble back in 1989 and since people here love to compare the current bubble to Japan, here is a quote I read to give HPers some food for thought:

"Prices were highest in Tokyo's Ginza district in 1989, with some fetching over US$1.5 million per square meter ($139,000 per square foot), and only slightly less in other areas of Tokyo. By 2004, prime "A" property in Tokyo's financial districts were less than 1/100th of their peak, and Tokyo's residential homes were 1/10th of their peak, but still managed to be listed as the most expensive real estate in the world. Some US$20 trillion (1999 dollars) was wiped out with the combined collapse of the real estate market and the Tokyo stock market.

Adjusted for inflation that would be $216, 633 per sq ft.

This on top of their Stock bubble. The article said that Japan lost some 20 trillion in real estate as a result of that bubble pop.

How does that compare with the USA where I imagine nationwide the average home costs around $100 a sq ft except in some bubble areas where $200-400 is high and those extreme markets where maybe $1,000 a sq ft?

Not to mention the ignored posts about the current price appreciation in Europe, South Africa, Australia and NZ where their home prices have risen even higher-recall those posts where in 10 years prices rose on average 100% or 10% a year here and in some places like South Africa over 300% or Ireland and Britain some 200%.

What do we think is a reasonable price? Does the market dictate that or do buyers? Is it the cost to build or replace? Is it just a buy/rent ration only?; December 13, 2006 4:28 AM
foxwoodlief said...: To the fake Keith, what gives? Do you come here for rational debate on an issue that affects all of us or just to piss? Not nice to piss on someone elses blog and this one is Keith's.

I come here to try and get some serious debate on real issues of value and trends and wish for serious debate not hate, not pre-determined opinions and interpretaions of facts, or twisting of facts like holocaust deniers. It is one thing to debate the meaning of the holocaust and another that it never happened.

I hope most bloggers will just try and produce facts, trends, issues that reflect on home trends, areas, etc. I really, and for those who have followed my posts for the past year, want to get a grasp on value, cost to rent per sq ft, cost to own, cost to build, why a house in a historic neighborhood should cost three times one outside (in the same city), or a house in Watts worth more than a house say in Scottsdale. And if the trends are historical, adjusted for inflation, what happened the last cycle etc.; December 13, 2006 4:33 AM
Anonymous said...: NEW MORTGAGE PURCHASE APPLICATIONS RISE AGAIN, NOW AN 11 MONTH HIGH

I keep trying to tell you guys the overall changing national supply/demand picture

its getting hard to ignore- new purchase applications up a whopping 8.7% for the week, theyve been rising steadily and now we are at the highest level in new purchase apps since January 2006

this is a legit leading indicator, last week it jumped to 7 month high now 11 month high

this does NOT indicate a deteriorating market currently,, dont let bias get in the way of facts (and the country is bigger then fl or az or ca); December 13, 2006 1:19 PM
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