November 29, 2006

HP'ers, make your best case

Why shouldn't a young couple go out, qualify for an interest-only, no-down, no-doc, negative-am loan, find a realtor, and go buy a house today in America? You know, live the American Dream?



26 comments:

Anonymous said...

Because they are sensible and responsible?

Anonymous said...

If you buy now I'll throw in a $40,000 tulip bulb as a comp.

panicearly said...

they should buy,so they can go to hawaii. yeah hawiiiiiiiii!

Patch Tuesday said...

Um, because the American dream is currently dead, along with pensions, made in America, health care, job security, pay raises, and lots of other things we used to take for granted...

Besides, they can't wait and save a bundle when those same houses go on sale...

Anonymous said...

1) If you buy a home today, it will be worth less tomorrow

2) If you buy a home today, you'll be paying inflated property taxes

3) It is much cheaper to rent than to own today

4) You may go bankrupt if you buy a home today

Anonymous said...

It took over ten years for prices to come back from the 90-94 housing crash, and this one looks a lot worse. Look around you at the economic conditions for the rest of the stressed middle class.

Is your job safe in that location for the next ten years, because you probably won't be able to sell at the price you paid? Are you sure?

Are you going to get automatic raises to cover the ever-escalating mortgage over the next decade? Are you sure?

Will your benefits be secure for the next ten years so that you won't lose your home in the event of a health disaster? Again, are you sure?

If you ARE sure of these things, you're already better off than 90% of Americans. Most of them just don't know it...yet.

And if that's so, then you're way too smart to even consider such a risky, overpriced mortgage scheme. Rent or buy a much more modest home instead.

Anonymous said...

Short bus riders buy houses now.

Anonymous said...

Hey, next time I want a pizza i'll just buy a house!

devestment said...

Note to young couple.

Nothing I say can influence your decision.

Mr. you have screwed your brains out and there is nothing left.

Mrs. Your instinct to feather the nest will override any logic

Proceed; “Suzanne” is waiting with your free pizza.

bugsy said...

What? You mean there is a young couple out there that doesn't already own? The horror, the horror.

Anonymous said...

Go ahead!

With all the future foreclosures and loan defaults, the banks won't want to carry all that bad paper. So some a--hole will come up with a bail-out scheme where you can live (free of course) in that home until they find a buyer.
Ten years later, you may have to get out.
The only ones getting hurt are the ones who have actual money to pay, because they saved up for the Amerikan dream!

Stuck in So Pa said...

Hey, you are young, you know everything (I know I did at that age,)buy now before you become old and stupid!

Anonymous said...

cnn story today says in a nutshell that sales are down but prices are up for new homes

is this the first of many dead cat bounces?

shineyspikeything said...

I am half of that young couple!
Met the man for me, we plan to make a go of it, have good jobs (I'm doing the thing I got a BA for, and he's management doing some nano-thing with wafers)and we are both savers.

Even with a good chunk of change to put down, buying a little place together in a decent neighborhood is not reasonable. We had considered it earlier this year when it became clear that we wanted to build a life together. Mortgage officers and realtors were salivating at our credit scores and savings. But being fiscally conservative sorts, we quickly figured out it would not be *reasonable.*

Rents for what we need aren't cheap enough for us to move, either.

Now, we're still each in our studio apartments, across the Bay Bridge from each other, thinking we may be stuck where we are forever.


Gay marriage isn't ruining heterosexual relationships, housing prices are!

shineyspikeything said...

Wait, sorry, I should have read that closer-- we aren't quite *that* couple. We were looking only at A-paper, fixed-rate conventional 30 year loans.
And we qualify easily for the good loans.

But the fact that we're unwilling to go in on a Tenancy in Common apparently makes us ridiculous.

Anonymous said...

bugsy said...
What? You mean there is a young couple out there that doesn't already own? The horror, the horror.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
I agree, Bugsy!

Don't they know that they'll be priced out forever!!!!

Maybe more full page ads would help educate the young couple, and thereby save them from a lifetime of shameful renting!

The gains are permanent, ya' know!!!

David L for Prez 2008!!!

Go David, Go!

Anonymous said...

I see , dont buy a home when its going up cause it must be a bubble, dont buy a home in a buyers market cause its going to go down forever...

it sounds like the internet bubble top where everyone said these stocks will go up forever, now you all are the opposite all housing will go down forever, sounds like more of a bottom then a top then (doom and gloom)

lets see, this is the worst market run for the hills, even though even yesterdays home sale #'s showed 102 areas with median gain and 45 declines...yeah that means the sky is falling forever..

if some bozo bought some overpriced 6000k home it the az desert in some investor complex with plenty of land in the area and incomes out of whack with prices to the extreme, of course that was overvalued and speculative, but whats that have to do with the future of a house in austin or wherever...

the fact is that over time the net worth of owners vs renters is higher- and its statistically probable that the same thing will happen in the future (im not talking about buying some investor condo on the outskirts of vegas with rents 1/3 of income) im talking about the rest of the country... supply demand already seems to be stabilizing in most areas and builders are very bearish therefore cutting way back on new projects therefore less supply going forward in a relative sense

you all are waiting for some crazy crash in prices that may never come nationwide and wouldnt recognize a top or bottom of a market till its way too late..

sounds like theres not a lot of long term experience here over many recessions, of course this time itll be different cause every other household is an investor with an option arm and no money who will sell there house to you in iowa or illinois or texas or montana or missouri or wherever to you at 30%lower next year... its ridiculous, and thats why some people make money in any market be it housing, options futures or whatever, against retail accounts like you who panic right near a bottom of a market and are only bullish at a very top...

lets see, housing median price declined year to yr almost 10% were all the recent headlines.. how many of you actually looked at the raw numbers to see that no region went down indiviually like that at all but that house sales were skewed mor this year to the south vs the ne or west, therefore the avg cheaper house in the south skewed the median lower... i guess theres no time to dig into numbers when you have rent to pay to the landlord, if you think thats the road to success over time good luck..

none of you will face the market reality that the odds are over the next couple of years average home prices nationwide will be higher (except for the overpriced investor homes in fl that you must be talking about or that maybe you bought at the top)...

have a good day, go buy your family a reasonably priced home in the right spot and youll be happier over time - or would you rather pay the landlord forever until he decides to kick you all out..

ANd for those in such bubble areas that you think prices will never go up again , why do you have to live there, its a big country...

Sorry just had to have fun with you all, theres just way to much bias and anecdotal stories rather then reasoned discussion, good luck to you all, really m

Anonymous said...

What a fargin' gas bag. Damn, STFU already!

Anonymous said...

can say the same to you all rambling how a family shouldnt ever buy a house, the sky is going to keep falling

what a depressing spoiled attitude, and using the f word besides says it all

a young adult with no manners who is gonna rent his whole life, right, bye...

Anonymous said...

Easy the risks outweigh the benefits. While it might be great to boost homeownership for the greater economy for the micro-economy of the couple it could derail/harm them for the long term. Patience & persistence at the pace of mother nature and not the pace of man is the way to go. So far she is batting a thousand and we are still trying to get into a minor league farm team

Anonymous said...

ok thats a more resonable post- the problem is that many here look at az fl, etc as anindication of the whole country and or every house..

Me personally, i was very happy to say goodbye to the landlord and have a place for my family, and i bet a huge majority of homeowners would agree

I wouldnt recommend that the young family buy some investor condo in fl for their first home anyway, but why shouldnt they buy a place of their own in their neighborjood they know and love, especially at a reasonable price, come on is everyone here that negative

of course i wouldnt recommend some negative am arm to anyone who cant afford it, but not everyone is in that boat , and not everywhere is scottsdale or miami either...

thanks for a more civil response

Crushed in 1990 said...

My wife and I were married in 2003, and I called it a bubble in late '03, and refused to buy then(Washington, DC and Baltimore areas under consideration.)

Now, we've got 3 kids, and renting isn't always fun, but after seeing my parents lose everything in the early 90s bubble in California, and seeing that this one is much worse, I just can't bring myself to buy. I'm not willing to be tied to the same home for the next 10++ years, because we're looking at a long decline here. I don't want that stress.

I do wish all the idiots who overpaid and don't belong in a house they won't be able to keep would just hurry up and capitulate so that prices could immediately tank back to where they belong. This is unrealistic, to hope for it so soon, of course, and I realized that over a year ago. But, we'll do the best we can by simply increasing our savings and income, and maybe at some point our upward trajectory will meet the market decline, and we will no longer be priced out.

But I will NOT overpay for a house no matter what - sellers can hold out as long as they wish, but I am more stubborn!

Anonymous said...

fair enough, if the stress of owning (and potential volatility) outweighs the enjoyment, you shouldnt buy in your case right now, but of course everyones situation is different and area is different- good luck

ps dont be so stubborn that you never buy anything down the road if the opportunity and comfort zone presents itself...

Anonymous said...

When you can buy a place you like and pay 28% of your net income (or less) in monthly housing expenses (PITI) after putting down 20% of the price - that is the time to buy and not a second sooner. And no, I don't mean 28% of your net income from working three jobs and having no life outside of same. Over time, you will regard your home as as a prison you pay to stay in if you follow that logic - and tell anyone who insists that you stretch yourself to that extreme to go f*ck themselves. Smug Bastard

Anonymous said...

Answer: Yes, now is a good time to buy a house.

And on and on it goes...

Thursday, November 30, 2006 11:33:29 AM


Not Buying Until After the Crash said...
Now is ALWAYS a GOOD TIME TO BUY. Always! Just buy. Just do it. The realtors of America are counting on you mr. and mrs. FB!

Thursday, November 30, 2006 11:50:14 AM


David in JAX said...
WOW. At least the realtors are starting to change their tune in order to play the market in the other direction. These guys just stink of desperation.

Thursday, November 30, 2006 11:53:32 AM


novasold said...
They are desperate.

I heard an ad on the radio this morning for K. Hovinian (sp?), their ad told buyers to name a price.

Now that's desperation.

Thursday, November 30, 2006 1:11:35 PM


VFRmonkey said...
I don't understand what's delaying total, unambiguous implosion. Frederick County, MD house sales are down 21% but prices have risen. New construction contines- I thought after a dead calm summer, things would change- I am baffled.

Thursday, November 30, 2006 1:24:00 PM


Anonymous said...
The only truth is ... the last one and that too sorta ...
It is better to trade up in a down market. If the houses are all 50% down you can lose say 100K on your old 200K house and make up 200K on that 400K house. Of course ... that assumes the market stays still, or you sell the old and buy the new at the same instant.
If the market is dropping you have to sell first before buying. Else you may buy when its down 10% and sell when down 20% ... thereby losing a lot more than you planned on. The rest are all ... well lies. But we knew that.
The real question to ask them is ... is it a good time to flip a house. Buy now and 3-6 months later sell. Ofcourse if the answer to that is no, they have automagically said, its better to buy 3-6 months from now. Of course 3-6 months from now, the question still is, it is a good time to flip a house. Again No, OK ... repeat.
Easy to beat the liars at their own game.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

Thursday, November 30, 2006 1:42:53 PM


Anonymous said...
GOOD NEWS, THE WORST OF THE BUBBLE IS OVER, BUY BUY BUY , FLIP FLIP FLIP, HAPPY DAYS!!!!!

Tuesday, November 21, 2006 9:59:33 PM


AndyMiamiBeach said...
Without a doubt, the main stream media has started a campaign to alleviate the worried consumer/citizen. Check out the analysis in the link below. This will give you a sense of what may potentially happen in the next five years:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6329.htm

Tuesday, November 21, 2006 10:02:21 PM


beebs said...
Only one of the four homes for sale around my block has sold this year.
I guess they are waiting for spring.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006 10:08:47 PM


foxwoodlief said...
Here in Austin things are selling well and in most neighborhoods there are very few for sale signs. I drive around getting the feel for the area and drive up and down streets and am lucky to see one for sale sign every 30-50 blocks. New home sales seems to have slowed as people worry about the national market or maybe it is the season? My realtor says November is one of her busiest months and she has quite a few showings and six closings this month. She says Jan-March is the hungry season for her, which she budgets for.

I was shocked to see one of the houses I sold in Phoenix and the guy refinanced it in December for $230,000 (he bought in 2000 from me for $139,00) sold it in one week. The house is only 1025 sq ft in a historic district in central Phoenix. Zillow had showed the price go down to $198,000 before rising to $205,000, up and down, up and down, but he sold and covered all his expenses. One of our best friends lives next door and keeps us updated.

With Google going over $500 I guess there is still a lot of capital seeking havens and real estate still seems to be a haven for now. I think as people see interest rates continue down, they've dropped almost 3/8% here and people sense they are not over paying they are still buying.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006 10:39:01 PM


kilobar said...
Economists only look at supply, demand and interest rates. They aren't taking the mortgage derivatives into consideration. I don't think I've seen any bullish or neutral housing projections that took the re-setting ARMs as a contibuting factor in projecting future prices.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006 11:08:38 PM


The Thinker said...
The economists are responding to the fact that in many areas, the inventory levels are beginning to plateau or even come down a bit. The fact that inventory is plateauing is probably attributable to frustrated and defeated would-be sellers pulling their homes off the market for the holidays with the intention of having them come online as new listings in the spring.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006 11:21:13 PM


Richard said...
Oil Director Gunnar Berge fears that the
Norwegian oil production may fall
dramatically in a few years, unless new finds are
made within a few years.
http://www.norwaypost.no/cgi-bin/norwaypost/imaker?id=30466

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 12:12:53 AM


Anonymous said...
Subprime Loans Doing Badly


Wednesday, November 22, 2006 3:51:54 AM


Stuck in So Pa said...
With the liquidity spigot still wide open for easy (free) money, the Fed can make the 'good times roll’ (or at least the appearance) for a few more years. That, along with the MSM’s : the bubble is over B.S., should get the old consumer juices flowing in time for Black Friday!

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 4:40:31 AM


Anonymous said...
"The latest blog news"


Wednesday, November 22, 2006 6:04:59 AM


Anonymous said...
"With the liquidity spigot still wide open for easy (free) money, the Fed can make the 'good times roll’ (or at least the appearance) for a few more years."

Sorry, they cannot do that anymore. Consumers have already borrowed to the max and everybody with a pulse is already in the game.

FED will only cause dollar crash combined with skyhigh interest rates if they continue printing more and more money.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 1:45:35 PM


Anonymous said...
Things couldn't be worse in North Scottsdale. In my development of 150 homes there are 22 homes for sale. Most all of them are investors. The builder recent reduced their last spec. $200K the homeowners are irrate. Nothing seems to be moving. Several developments nearby are in the same position. At the rate listings are selling, there is at least 3 years worth of inventory. Toll Brothers just cleared a development for 600+ homes. I'm worried that land is going to be sitting empty for a while.

Thankfully we cashed out of a house we bought in 2004 for $815K and sold this June for $1.535. We were able to take the cash and buy our current house for $817K. So happy to have downsized and to be living without a mortgage. So many of our neighbors are living beyond their means. They think we are crazy to be living in our current house. But I'll have the last laugh because I know they can't even pay their real estate taxes. Now many with adjusting mortgages are trying to get out, but they can't sell.

Things are going to get much worse before they get better here.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 2:35:00 PM


Mammoth said...
Last week I posted:
“Edmonds, WA is a quiet bedroom community nestled alongside Puget Sound, just north of Seattle. It is fairly affluent with lots of retirees, and cute knick-knack shops lining its downtown streets.

There was a condo for sale there; every day I walked past it on the way to work. It started out at $460K back in June. I’d thought about contacting the agent, evaluating the place and then offering her ½ the asking price, but never had the time for this.

The price stayed there for a long while, then dropped to $410K. Still no takers. Then the price dropped to $399K, then to $395K. One day last month, surprise surprise, the sign was gone! Usually RE is posted with a “SOLD” sign attached to the “for sale” sign, but not in this case.

So either the place finally sold, or the seller just took the condo off the market. In other words, either the buyer got (at least) 14% shaved off the asking price, OR a 14% price cut still didn’t move this condo.

Looks like housing in the Seattle area has passed it’s peak.”
-----------------------
On Monday 11/20, the “For Sale” sign was back up, this time by Remax (the one with the bubble...er, the balloon image), with the asking price dropped again to $389K. This is a classic case of chasing a declining value.

-Mammoth

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 3:27:46 PM


Anonymous said...
Mammouth -

They should drop it $325, then maybe they would have some takers. Its funny we made offers on two houses before we purchased this one. Neither would come down enough. They are still on the market, one listed for our previous offer and the other list $50K under what we offered in June. When will these sellers learn? They are all so full of greed. You would think they had their heads stuck in the sand, unaware what a 180 the market has made.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 4:33:03 PM


Anonymous said...
Sorry Mammoth not "Mammouth"

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 4:34:24 PM


foxwoodlief said...
I don't know. Last night read in the Economist that prices on homes went up 9.5% in nine Australian cities and up 47% in Perth this year to the third quarter.

Last year there was talk of how over-heated their market was and then the fear the bubble would burst, a contraction and draw back in sales, a slight decrease in prices and now this?

I had posted some stats from the Economist from June 2005 that showed Five major countries outside the USA that showed the increase in price in other countries from over 112% to 221% where the USA was only 73% and Australia was in the top four and now this? If gauging markets and potential outcomes by these countries I think the USA has a long way to go before a "historic meltdown."

I am beginning to believe that the past year has been a "touch and go" and ready for another slight take-off in the spring barring a major calamity or war.

With the stock market booming I think they money game isn't over yet. I do believe a correction will have to come and the sooner the better but I'm beginning to doubt it has arrived.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 4:44:39 PM


kilobar said...
The market is soft here in Denver as well. A friend of mine had a downtown loft on the market for $550k. He got offered $525k in July and turned it down. SInce then he's had to lower the price twice and now has it going for $515k with no takers.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 5:25:42 PM


Mammoth said...
Another sign of the true state of the economy - last weekend I was a vendor at a craft fair in Edmonds, WA - a fairly affluent community just north of Seattle.

My observation was that there were much fewer people coming through, than in previous years. All of the other vendors also commented that both traffic and sales were down this year. One vendor remarked that the number of credit card purchases was way down from last year as well.

In my best year I sold over $800; this time around it was $460. What I sell are hand-painted miniature lacquer boxes which I buy directly from the craftspeople in Russia. (To view samples, you may perform a Google search on “Russian Lacquer box” and follow the link of your choice. You would not believe the huge markup over what the crafts people receive for their products!)

What I was selling spans the range from very simple designs to incredibly detailed paintings, and my prices ranged from $9 to $59.

Most customers first made a beeline for the finest boxes, and then purchased something more towards the lower end of the price range, often making comments like “Wish that I could afford that other one...it looks so nice but I don’t have much to spend this year.”

So those recent forecasts saying this is going to be a yawner of a holiday shopping season are likely spot-on. With food prices, energy prices, and the cost of everything else increasing as well, people are squeezed.

So no, I do not believe that the economy, nor housing has yet hit the bottom.

-Mammoth

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 6:05:55 PM


keith said...
I looked at lofts in Denver 2 years ago and knew for certain we were in the mother of all bubbles. Renting so much cheaper than buying.

$550,000 becomes $200,000 really quick... just read some Denver papers from 1990.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 7:17:44 PM


Jay said...
Yet another gutless anonymous poster said:
"At the rate listings are selling, there is at least 3 years worth of inventory."

He's in Scottsdale. Don't know where he gets his stats, but 3 years is laughable. The actual absorption rate in Phoenix Valley wide is about six

Thursday, November 30, 2006 1:44:31 PM


Anonymous said...
Vfrmonkey:

You ahve a VFR ??? what year. Love the 91 was it to 96 750's. They maye a beauty in white in 91 or 92. perfect match for my 89 white GS. They also made a eyepopping ferrari red other years.
Anyway - I see your frustration as well. If your area didn't have a price run up for no reason other than loose money, that is a reason they will fall. In Charlotte NC (where I am from) 98-02 prices fell and by quite a bit. From 100 a sqft to like ~60. We have always had new construction, cranking it out like cars really. We are barely ahead of inflation. I am going to be shocked to see us fall. Of course we also have 100 and up a sqft in sections of charlotte, and I do anticipate those to take a bath.
Secondly - incentives. Prices have fallen because of heavy incentives, but not reflected in the stats, and the Idiots pay the taxes on the larger amount.
Cool.
Cow_tipping.

Thursday, November 30, 2006 1:50:59 PM


Anonymous said...
GOOD NEWS, THE WORST OF THE BUBBLE IS OVER, BUY BUY BUY , FLIP FLIP FLIP, HAPPY DAYS!!!!!

Tuesday, November 21, 2006 9:59:33 PM


AndyMiamiBeach said...
Without a doubt, the main stream media has started a campaign to alleviate the worried consumer/citizen. Check out the analysis in the link below. This will give you a sense of what may potentially happen in the next five years:

http://www.safehaven.com/article-6329.htm

Tuesday, November 21, 2006 10:02:21 PM


beebs said...
Only one of the four homes for sale around my block has sold this year.
I guess they are waiting for spring.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006 10:08:47 PM


foxwoodlief said...
Here in Austin things are selling well and in most neighborhoods there are very few for sale signs. I drive around getting the feel for the area and drive up and down streets and am lucky to see one for sale sign every 30-50 blocks. New home sales seems to have slowed as people worry about the national market or maybe it is the season? My realtor says November is one of her busiest months and she has quite a few showings and six closings this month. She says Jan-March is the hungry season for her, which she budgets for.

I was shocked to see one of the houses I sold in Phoenix and the guy refinanced it in December for $230,000 (he bought in 2000 from me for $139,00) sold it in one week. The house is only 1025 sq ft in a historic district in central Phoenix. Zillow had showed the price go down to $198,000 before rising to $205,000, up and down, up and down, but he sold and covered all his expenses. One of our best friends lives next door and keeps us updated.

With Google going over $500 I guess there is still a lot of capital seeking havens and real estate still seems to be a haven for now. I think as people see interest rates continue down, they've dropped almost 3/8% here and people sense they are not over paying they are still buying.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006 10:39:01 PM


kilobar said...
Economists only look at supply, demand and interest rates. They aren't taking the mortgage derivatives into consideration. I don't think I've seen any bullish or neutral housing projections that took the re-setting ARMs as a contibuting factor in projecting future prices.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006 11:08:38 PM


The Thinker said...
The economists are responding to the fact that in many areas, the inventory levels are beginning to plateau or even come down a bit. The fact that inventory is plateauing is probably attributable to frustrated and defeated would-be sellers pulling their homes off the market for the holidays with the intention of having them come online as new listings in the spring.

Tuesday, November 21, 2006 11:21:13 PM


Richard said...
Oil Director Gunnar Berge fears that the
Norwegian oil production may fall
dramatically in a few years, unless new finds are
made within a few years.
http://www.norwaypost.no/cgi-bin/norwaypost/imaker?id=30466

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 12:12:53 AM


Anonymous said...
Subprime Loans Doing Badly


Wednesday, November 22, 2006 3:51:54 AM


Stuck in So Pa said...
With the liquidity spigot still wide open for easy (free) money, the Fed can make the 'good times roll’ (or at least the appearance) for a few more years. That, along with the MSM’s : the bubble is over B.S., should get the old consumer juices flowing in time for Black Friday!

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 4:40:31 AM


Anonymous said...
"The latest blog news"


Wednesday, November 22, 2006 6:04:59 AM


Anonymous said...
"With the liquidity spigot still wide open for easy (free) money, the Fed can make the 'good times roll’ (or at least the appearance) for a few more years."

Sorry, they cannot do that anymore. Consumers have already borrowed to the max and everybody with a pulse is already in the game.

FED will only cause dollar crash combined with skyhigh interest rates if they continue printing more and more money.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 1:45:35 PM


Anonymous said...
Things couldn't be worse in North Scottsdale. In my development of 150 homes there are 22 homes for sale. Most all of them are investors. The builder recent reduced their last spec. $200K the homeowners are irrate. Nothing seems to be moving. Several developments nearby are in the same position. At the rate listings are selling, there is at least 3 years worth of inventory. Toll Brothers just cleared a development for 600+ homes. I'm worried that land is going to be sitting empty for a while.

Thankfully we cashed out of a house we bought in 2004 for $815K and sold this June for $1.535. We were able to take the cash and buy our current house for $817K. So happy to have downsized and to be living without a mortgage. So many of our neighbors are living beyond their means. They think we are crazy to be living in our current house. But I'll have the last laugh because I know they can't even pay their real estate taxes. Now many with adjusting mortgages are trying to get out, but they can't sell.

Things are going to get much worse before they get better here.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 2:35:00 PM


Mammoth said...
Last week I posted:
“Edmonds, WA is a quiet bedroom community nestled alongside Puget Sound, just north of Seattle. It is fairly affluent with lots of retirees, and cute knick-knack shops lining its downtown streets.

There was a condo for sale there; every day I walked past it on the way to work. It started out at $460K back in June. I’d thought about contacting the agent, evaluating the place and then offering her ½ the asking price, but never had the time for this.

The price stayed there for a long while, then dropped to $410K. Still no takers. Then the price dropped to $399K, then to $395K. One day last month, surprise surprise, the sign was gone! Usually RE is posted with a “SOLD” sign attached to the “for sale” sign, but not in this case.

So either the place finally sold, or the seller just took the condo off the market. In other words, either the buyer got (at least) 14% shaved off the asking price, OR a 14% price cut still didn’t move this condo.

Looks like housing in the Seattle area has passed it’s peak.”
-----------------------
On Monday 11/20, the “For Sale” sign was back up, this time by Remax (the one with the bubble...er, the balloon image), with the asking price dropped again to $389K. This is a classic case of chasing a declining value.

-Mammoth

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 3:27:46 PM


Anonymous said...
Mammouth -

They should drop it $325, then maybe they would have some takers. Its funny we made offers on two houses before we purchased this one. Neither would come down enough. They are still on the market, one listed for our previous offer and the other list $50K under what we offered in June. When will these sellers learn? They are all so full of greed. You would think they had their heads stuck in the sand, unaware what a 180 the market has made.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 4:33:03 PM


Anonymous said...
Sorry Mammoth not "Mammouth"

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 4:34:24 PM


foxwoodlief said...
I don't know. Last night read in the Economist that prices on homes went up 9.5% in nine Australian cities and up 47% in Perth this year to the third quarter.

Last year there was talk of how over-heated their market was and then the fear the bubble would burst, a contraction and draw back in sales, a slight decrease in prices and now this?

I had posted some stats from the Economist from June 2005 that showed Five major countries outside the USA that showed the increase in price in other countries from over 112% to 221% where the USA was only 73% and Australia was in the top four and now this? If gauging markets and potential outcomes by these countries I think the USA has a long way to go before a "historic meltdown."

I am beginning to believe that the past year has been a "touch and go" and ready for another slight take-off in the spring barring a major calamity or war.

With the stock market booming I think they money game isn't over yet. I do believe a correction will have to come and the sooner the better but I'm beginning to doubt it has arrived.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 4:44:39 PM


kilobar said...
The market is soft here in Denver as well. A friend of mine had a downtown loft on the market for $550k. He got offered $525k in July and turned it down. SInce then he's had to lower the price twice and now has it going for $515k with no takers.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 5:25:42 PM


Mammoth said...
Another sign of the true state of the economy - last weekend I was a vendor at a craft fair in Edmonds, WA - a fairly affluent community just north of Seattle.

My observation was that there were much fewer people coming through, than in previous years. All of the other vendors also commented that both traffic and sales were down this year. One vendor remarked that the number of credit card purchases was way down from last year as well.

In my best year I sold over $800; this time around it was $460. What I sell are hand-painted miniature lacquer boxes which I buy directly from the craftspeople in Russia. (To view samples, you may perform a Google search on “Russian Lacquer box” and follow the link of your choice. You would not believe the huge markup over what the crafts people receive for their products!)

What I was selling spans the range from very simple designs to incredibly detailed paintings, and my prices ranged from $9 to $59.

Most customers first made a beeline for the finest boxes, and then purchased something more towards the lower end of the price range, often making comments like “Wish that I could afford that other one...it looks so nice but I don’t have much to spend this year.”

So those recent forecasts saying this is going to be a yawner of a holiday shopping season are likely spot-on. With food prices, energy prices, and the cost of everything else increasing as well, people are squeezed.

So no, I do not believe that the economy, nor housing has yet hit the bottom.

-Mammoth

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 6:05:55 PM


keith said...
I looked at lofts in Denver 2 years ago and knew for certain we were in the mother of all bubbles. Renting so much cheaper than buying.

$550,000 becomes $200,000 really quick... just read some Denver papers from 1990.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 7:17:44 PM


Jay said...
Yet another gutless anonymous poster said:
"At the rate listings are selling, there is at least 3 years worth of inventory."

He's in Scottsdale. Don't know where he gets his stats, but 3 years is laughable. The actual absorption rate in Phoenix Valley wide is about six months. Sure there are pockets where it's worse. But three years? That's just asinine.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 7:48:44 PM


Anonymous said...
Jay -

He would be a she...

In DC Ranch (North Scottsdale) there have been 100 sales in 2006 so far. Currenty there are 182 properties for sale (resales). This number doesn't include new construction. The rest of Phoenix/Scottsdale hasn't been hit as hard. But trust me now that Toll Brothers is ready to put in another 600+ homes at Windgate Pass. It will be years until the inventory is worked out.

Happy Turkey day Jay!

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 8:32:54 PM


foxwoodlief said...
I don't know. Last night read in the Economist that prices on homes went up 9.5% in nine Australian cities and up 47% in Perth this year to the third quarter.

Last year there was talk of how over-heated their market was and then the fear the bubble would burst, a contraction and draw back in sales, a slight decrease in prices and now this?

I had posted some stats from the Economist from June 2005 that showed Five major countries outside the USA that showed the increase in price in other countries from over 112% to 221% where the USA was only 73% and Australia was in the top four and now this? If gauging markets and potential outcomes by these countries I think the USA has a long way to go before a "historic meltdown."

I am beginning to believe that the past year has been a "touch and go" and ready for another slight take-off in the spring barring a major calamity or war.

With the stock market booming I think they money game isn't over yet. I do believe a correction will have to come and the sooner the better but I'm beginning to doubt it has arrived.

What do you think of what has happened so far in those markets that are way higher than ours?

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 10:22:39 PM


Benvolio Montague said...
Canadian RE cheerleaders heap fuel on fire:

http://tinyurl.com/ye3dsd

In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king.

Wednesday, November 22, 2006 11:05:33 PM


Anonymous said...
benvolio:
From the article: "However, a recent study by CIBC World Markets found that non-conventional mortgages make up about 5 per cent of the Canadian market, a small amount when compared with about 20 per cent in the U.S."

I've never seen non-conventional mortgages specified as a percentage of the entire US mortgage market - only varying percentages by state and only over the last couple of years. It's hard to believe that 20% of ALL US mortgages are non-conventional. Unless their definition of non-conventional is different from ours.

Also, "Over the last six months the median price of all existing U.S. homes dropped 11.5 per cent to $200,000 (U.S.) from $223,000, according to the U.S. National Association of Realtors."

That sure isn't getting much play here in the US.

Thursday, November 23, 2006 12:34:56 AM


Anonymous said...
"Is the dollar FREE FALLING?"

Thursday, November 23, 2006 4:56:42 AM


Anonymous said...


One factor putting pressure on the dollar was a cut in US growth forecasts from the Council of Economic Advisers, George W. Bush's economic advisors.

The CEA blamed the downturn in the US housing market for its revisions. Tim Fox at Dresdner Kleinwort said the news had increased market speculation that the Federal Reserve would start cutting US interest rates in March.

Thursday, November 23, 2006 5:41:13 AM


Anonymous said...
I recall an old article "ANALYSIS-FX reserve shift out of dollars can be costly"

However, with the housing market tanking, and rumors of the Fed lowering interest rate in 2007 - it seems Cheng Siwei recommendation is making more sense for central banks to diversify their US assets if the Dollar sell-off intensify?

But the Federal Reserve's 15 interest rate hikes since June 2004 has taken U.S. interest rates to 4.75 percent from historic lows of 1 percent in 2003, which makes ditching dollars less attractive from the yield point of view.

"The story of central banks shifting out of dollars has been a problem for the dollar. But the Fed has been aggressive and U.S. interest rates are rapidly going up. So the cost is getting high to shift out of dollars," said Johan Javeus, currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.

Speculation of central bank reserves diversification was partly behind the dollar's tumble in the three years to late 2004 which took it to record lows against the euro.

Central banks worldwide, which hold more than $4 trillion in total reserves, are increasingly important players in the $1.9-trillion-a-day FX market.
Asia and Russia hold more than 70 percent of the world's reserves.

Talk of central bank diversification intensified on Tuesday after vice chief of China's national parliament Cheng Siwei said the country, which has the world's largest reserves, should trim its holdings of U.S. debt and could stop buying dollar bonds.

China's central bank said however Cheng was expressing his personal views.

However, these conditions have changed allot since that old article was written.

Thursday, November 23, 2006 6:40:40 AM


Anonymous said...
Carry-Trade Craze

During the past decade, the yen-carry trade has become a staple for many punters. A popular form of the strategy exploits the gap between U.S. and Japanese yields. Anyone borrowing for next to nothing in yen and parking the funds in U.S. Treasuries received a twofold payoff: the 3-plus percentage-point yield difference and the dollar's rise versus the yen. The latter dynamic boosts profits by the time they're converted back to yen.

Yet as the BOJ raises rates and more investors buy into Japan's revival, the yen is sure to rise, much to the chagrin of carry-trade aficionados. Realization the trade is moving against investors may send shockwaves through global markets.

Perhaps BOJ won't raise interest rate, but with a slowing US housing market and the US Federal Reserve looking at dropping interest rate it seems like the dollar has no where to go but down.

It would start slowly with speculators suddenly closing positions that are becoming more expensive: dumping Treasuries, gold, Shanghai real estate, shares in Google Inc. or whatever else they used yen borrowings to bet on. The chain reaction would accelerate once the mainstream media jumped on the story.

If all this sounds far-fetched, think back to late 1998, which offers an example of the damage a panic among carry-traders can do.

Remember 1998

Thursday, November 23, 2006 8:25:36 AM


Anonymous said...
Yen surges

At the same time, the yen soared across the board, shrugging off the government's downgrade of its economic assessment and weak trade and industry activity data.

Chandler said the yen rallied as bearish sentiment towards the dollar sparked an unwinding of long dollar and euro positions.

Meanwhile, market talk that the Japanese authorities had encouraged exporters to buy yen has provided an excuse to trim back yen carry trade positions, he said.

Carry trades refer to the practice of speculators making profits by borrowing the yen and the Swiss franc at very low costs and reinvesting in higher-yielding currencies and assets, such as the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar.

Will the unwinding of Yen carry trade have an impact to the $370 Trillion global market for derivatives?

Thursday, November 23, 2006 8:40:52 AM


Anonymous said...
US SWAPS-Spreads widen on light, pre-holiday trade

Spreads on U.S. interest rate swaps widened on Wednesday, the first time in seven sessions, on light trade ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

Short-dated spreads moved out as much as 0.75 basis point on the day, as short-dated swaps lagged Eurodollar futures, analysts said.

Thursday, November 23, 2006 9:33:22 AM


Geronimo said...
Lou Dobbs - The War on the Middle Class
Book Introduction, pp. 1 - 12


"Whether the issue is a total lack of border security, an illegal immigration crisis, taxation, education, or jobs, big business and big government are unchecked in their attacks on the common good. Most of our elected officials, whether Democrat or Republican, have been bought and paid for through campaign donations from corporate lobbyists and other special interest groups. We've reached a stage where lobbyists no longer merely influence legislation but write the actual language of what becomes law."

Thursday, November 23, 2006 2:40:50 PM


Anonymous said...
geronimo: "We've reached a stage where lobbyists no longer merely influence legislation but write the actual language of what becomes law."

Do you know of any place on the web where legislation is spelled out with Congressional names attached indicating how they've voted? If there is no such place, maybe there should be so we can finally start shining a spotlight on just how little the "common good" is being protected by those WE entrust to protect it.

Thursday, November 23, 2006 8:49:43 PM


Anonymous said...
The euro touched its highest against the dollar since June as business confidence in Germany, Europe's largest economy, unexpectedly advanced to a 15-year high.

Thursday, November 23, 2006 9:05:16 PM


Anonymous said...
More Bad News for the Dollar


European government bonds took a knock from news of a pick up in business optimism in the area's biggest economy.

The Ifo index, which measures confidence in Germany, jumped from 105.3 in October to 106.8 in November, equalling the 15-year high reached in June. Economists had been looking for a slight decline in the index to 105.2.

The data strengthened European Central Bank rate hike expectations and bond prices at the shorter end took the brunt of the selling.

Thursday, November 23, 2006 9:14:31 PM


Anonymous said...
Can there be more bad news for the Dollar?

The U.K. pound rose for a fifth day versus the dollar, its longest winning run in three weeks, on speculation the Bank of England will keep raising interest rates into 2007.

The U.K. currency rose the most in three months against its U.S. counterpart yesterday after minutes from the central bank's latest rate-setting meeting showed the nine-member committee, led by Governor Mervyn King, voted 7-2 in favor of raising the key rate by a quarter point to a five-year high of 5 percent.

Thursday, November 23, 2006 9:20:17 PM


Anonymous said...
The common currency clambered up to 1.2967 dollars in European trading after the Munich-based ifo institute said its key business confidence survey returned in November to the 15-year high that it hit in June.

"The fundamental picture corresponds to a stronger euro,"

The stronger euro follows a raft of economists' forecasts that the common currency would be able to gain ground against the US dollar as evidence that growth in the world's biggest economy would turn down in the run up to the new year.

Indeed, ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet has already flagged the bank's sixth rate rise since December with analysts expecting the Frankfurt-based bank to hike rates by another 25 basis points to 3.50 per cent at its meeting next month.

Adding to the downbeat economic picture facing the US economy, President George W Bush's economic panel of advisers this week cut their 2007 growth forecasts.

Signs that US economic growth might be losing strength have also led to a divergence in interest rate expectations for the eurozone and the US.

Thursday, November 23, 2006 9:25:59 PM


Anonymous said...
Paulson and the Plunge Protection gang discuss the problems that might occur with hedge funds and derivatives, plus the "government's ability to respond to a financial crisis,"

Pualson must have given the Plunge Protection Team - a. k. a. Working Group - a half day on Wednesday, because the Team allow the dollar free fall the day before Thanksgiving.

Thursday, November 23, 2006 9:40:59 PM


Anonymous said...
World oil prices have staged a modest rally on market speculation that the OPEC cartel could announce further crude production cuts, dealers said.

If the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut production to raise the price of crude oil it could put more pressure on the current US economic conditions further weakening the dollar.

Thursday, November 23, 2006 10:00:43 PM


Anonymous said...
A quiet night turned into a bloodbath for the USD as it plummeted against the majors

Thursday, November 23, 2006 10:12:53 PM


Anonymous said...
Canada dollar jumps versus US Dollar after Canadian Core inflation raced ahead at 2.3 percent in October.

The Canadian dollar shot higher versus the greenback on Wednesday, as data showing a sharp rise in core Canadian consumer prices prompted heavy buying versus a weak U.S. currency.

Canadian bond prices rose slightly, as the inflation data did not alter expectations that interest rates will be steady for the next several months.

Thursday, November 23, 2006 10:18:52 PM


Richard said...
The OPEC reduction in production of oil - is not voluntary.

IMO of course.

Thursday, November 23, 2006 10:22:27 PM


Anonymous said...
The ruble is likely to continue its advance against the dollar at the next UTS session.

Dollar continues to slide vs. euro and ruble

Thursday, November 23, 2006 10:59:33 PM


Anonymous said...
Russia Gold and foreign currency reserves up $1.9bn

So, Russia has slightly reduced the huge gap from China and Japan, which have the largest gold and foreign currency reserves in the world. China’s reserves top $1 trillion, and Japan has more than $900 billion.

Alexei Ulyukayev, the Bank of Russia's first deputy chairman, on October 16 said he may lift holdings of yen to "several percent" of the nation's US$273 billion of reserves, from almost zero percent.


Thursday, November 23, 2006 11:13:59 PM


Anonymous said...
Yesterday morning, the battle between the BoJ and the government continued expanding.

The government downgraded the outlook for the economy. This was the first downgrade since 2004. This was widely anticipated and is seen as a warning shot to the Bank of Japan not to hike rates too fast.

The BoJ’s Iwata immediately (within minutes!) reacted with a statement that the Bank will use its (own) outlook for setting rates. The message to the government is clear: ‘do not try to meddle’…

But the reality of Japan in our view is still that the pressure of the government may be a factor to take into account when setting rates or having expectations for it going forward. The reluctance of the government is enough for us to see a December rate hike very difficult. The politically acceptable Q1 ’07 is now very likely, just ahead of the start of a new fiscal year on April 1, ’07.

Friday, November 24, 2006 12:48:42 AM


Anonymous said...
Dollar Drops to 19-Month Low Versus Euro, Breaches $1.30 Level.

People's Bank of China Vice-Governor Wu Xiaoling said East Asia needs to reduce its reliance on dollar inflows because of the risk of a further slump in the currency. China's foreign- exchange reserves exceed $1 trillion, the world's largest.

Wu's comments were released today in an article circulated during a press conference in Beijing.

``China holds most of its reserves in the dollar and these comments may lead to speculation they will sell,''

Friday, November 24, 2006 7:00:30 PM


Anonymous said...
U.S. Treasury debt prices rose in thin trade on Friday, pushing benchmark yields to nine-month lows, as a plunge in the dollar caused some investors to switch from stocks into government bonds.

But traders said the flight-to-safety flows of money could be temporary as sustained dollar weakness would make Treasuries less attractive to foreigners over time.

Friday, November 24, 2006 7:04:14 PM


Anonymous said...
“If you are in the foreign-exchange world and you took a few days off for U.S. Thanksgiving, and ‘forgot' your Blackberry at the office, you will be forgiven if you are left slack-jawed when you return to work on Monday,”

“It seems that all the warts and blemishes that were apparent on the U.S. dollar have suddenly come to the attention of the market,”

The Canadian dollar rose more than half a cent against the greenback Friday as global currency traders shed the U.S. currency

Friday, November 24, 2006 7:27:03 PM


Anonymous said...
The DOLLAR falls below the must defend 85 mark, the Plunge Protection Team got some work to do on Monday

Friday, November 24, 2006 7:38:20 PM


Anonymous said...
The euro shot above $1.31 on Friday for the first time since April 2005.

Investors are wary that China, which holds the world's biggest foreign exchange reserves of above $1 trillion, might diversify out of dollar assets.

Friday, November 24, 2006 8:09:42 PM


Anonymous said...
Can weak data on Durable Goods and New Home Sells bring the DOLLAR down further next week?

On Tuesday, US data includes October durable goods orders, which are forecast to fall 5.1% after a surprising 8.3% gain in September.

And US existing home sales figures an indicator to see how fast the US economy is contracting are forecast to be down slightly from the previous month, at 6.14 million versus 6.18 million.

Friday, November 24, 2006 8:24:24 PM


Anonymous said...
THE MOVE ABOVE $1.30 is DECISIVE and ON HEAVY VOLUME

The euro's surge this week above $1.30 after months of rangebound trading augurs a re-run, albeit a milder version, of the late 2004 rally when it reached its all time high.

Renewed talk of central bank diversification out of dollars, expectations of higher euro zone interest rates and signs of unwinding in overstretched carry trades have combined to lift the euro and send the dollar lower across the board.

The spike up in the euro and implied volatility on Friday suggest momentum is strong enough to push the euro back up toward its high at $1.3667.

Friday, November 24, 2006 9:55:27 PM


Anonymous said...
Did European Hedge Funds bid up the Euro?

Friday, November 24, 2006 10:14:38 PM


Anonymous said...
Hedge funds take sides on LSE bid battle

Friday, November 24, 2006 10:16:12 PM


Anonymous said...
Home loan demand falls even though mortgage rates were lower. Does not look good for the DOLLAR.

Friday, November 24, 2006 10:27:34 PM


Anonymous said...
What to Expect for the US Dollar on Monday

The US dollar has completely melted down with the Euro and British pound hitting a yearly high

Friday, November 24, 2006 10:34:47 PM


Anonymous said...
As GCC approach 2010 with its goal of a single currency, is it for certain that the single currency will be peg to the Dollar.

UAE central bank chief Sultan Nasser Al Suweidi, whose central bank is shifting 10 per cent of its $25 billion reserves out of the dollar and largely into euros, said he expected the single currency to overtake the dollar by 2015.

'Even when you see Japanese trade transactions they are in US dollars. It's not a currency. It's very much controlled by the central bank of Japan and it's lost some of its ground. I would say it's lost confidence,' he said.

Friday, November 24, 2006 10:57:16 PM


Anonymous said...
Foreign holders of U.S. Treasury bonds appeared unfazed by the dollar's plunge on Friday, but should the decline prove more than a one-day event, bond investors could find their nerves put to a test.

Friday, November 24, 2006 11:06:39 PM


Anonymous said...
Why the dollar is falling so fast


Saturday, November 25, 2006 12:45:05 AM


Anonymous said...
Euro zone M3 money supply is released on Tuesday and is seen rising 8.7 percent, economists polled by Reuters say.

M3 – a mix of cash, short-term bank deposits and money market instruments – is closely watched by the ECB.

France and Germany report unemployment data on Wednesday, euro zone November harmonised inflation on Thursday is seen up 0.2 percent on the month.

“We have a raft of data and expect it to support the case for further (euro zone) rate increases beyond those which we see in December,” said UBS' Teather.

Saturday, November 25, 2006 1:28:29 AM


Anonymous said...
does any one have data on when these ARMs are comming due?

Keith?

Saturday, November 25, 2006 6:17:30 AM


Anonymous said...
The ARMS are coming due shortly before the end of the world. Or is it the world is ending when the ARMS come due? I forget, it's so confusing.

Woe is me.

Saturday, November 25, 2006 10:13:23 AM


Enorah said...
RealtyTrac

Does anyone here use it? Does anyone have feedback? Does anyone know the fee? I can not seem to locate the fee after the 7 day free trial expires. Thanks!

Saturday, November 25, 2006 6:49:23 PM


Anonymous said...
The dollar fell sharply Friday against major currencies raising fresh concerns about the U.S. economy and inflation.

The U.S. currency hit a 23-month low against the pound and 20-month low against the euro. The pound rose as high as $1.9336 while the euro hit $1.3085, exceeding its previous high this year by more than a cent and the Japanese currency also benefited sharply.

Saturday, November 25, 2006 8:35:04 PM


Anonymous said...
Will China dump dollar-denominated assets?

The risk of a sell-off of U.S. securities by China has been a persistent concern for Wall Street in recent years.

The sell-off in the currency highlights risks in the U.S. budget and trade deficits.

A major threat to the U.S. economy from a tumbling dollar would be higher inflation, because a weaker currency could drive up prices of the imported goods that consumers relish

Saturday, November 25, 2006 8:53:12 PM


Anonymous said...
Slumping Dollar Boosts T-Bond Prices; 10-Year Note Yield Hits A 9-Month Low

Traders said while foreign investors could seek a safe haven in Treasuries for now, prolonged dollar weakness would erode their appeal over time as it reduced their monetary value.

"They may be safer buying Treasuries than stocks, but they are not safer from a currency perspective. A dollar, whether it is invested in Treasuries or stocks, is still a dollar," said Adam Brown, co-head of U.S. Treasury trading at Barclays Capital in New York.

Saturday, November 25, 2006 9:07:17 PM


Anonymous said...
Gold Falls From Highest in Nine Days on Concern IMF May Sell

Will Foreign Institutional Investors use this as an opportunity to diversify out of US Treasury?

Saturday, November 25, 2006 9:36:19 PM


Anonymous said...
What is the chances one of the Federal Reserve governor will make a statement like this next week to slow down the Dollar free fall?

"The financial markets perceive that the Fed is now done with the tightening cycle and now expect an easing at some point in 2007. Although we expect core inflation to moderate going forward, we believe that the currently elevated rate will keep the Fed from lowering interest rates despite signs of slowing economic activity. We expect that the Fed will keep the fed funds rate steady at the current 5.25 percent through 2008.

Saturday, November 25, 2006 9:56:58 PM


FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...
Found This Richard, Thought of you.

Russia Proves 'Peak Oil' is a Misleading Zionist Scam

http://tinyurl.com/64vzs

and this.

The Myth Of Peak Oil

http://tinyurl.com/bd8q4

found them here www.rense.com and
http://byronw.www1host.com/

Saturday, November 25, 2006 10:26:34 PM


Anonymous said...
Lol! Is your toilet clogged??

It's all the fault International Zionist Plumber Conspiracy.

So Batman, riddle me this---if them evil Jews were so powerful, why didn't they make lots of oil under Israel?

Saturday, November 25, 2006 10:33:08 PM


tom said...
The propaganda machines are starting to ratchet up the BS.
Her are some well known facts from the Mogambo Guru

"And China's demand for oil? Soaring! In fact, oil imports literally jumped off the charts in 2005 - up 45%! More than 3 billion people in China and across Asia are coming out of the dark ages ... joining Western society ... building homes ... installing modern plumbing ... buying cars ... tasting new foods ... having their desires awakened ... and consuming natural resources like never before! Believe me: When almost half the total population of the entire world suddenly begins demanding a scarce natural resource, you can count on prices shooting for the moon. Here's a little hint: In only ten years, with demand increasing at 45% a year, China will be using 41 times more oil than it does now right now! Hahaha! Ten years!"

Saturday, November 25, 2006 10:40:44 PM


FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...
HEY,
I DID NOT WRITE THE ARTICLE!!!! I JUST POSTED IT FOR RICHARD TO SEE.
PA LEAZZZZE, TAKE A VALIUM.

Saturday, November 25, 2006 10:41:48 PM


Anonymous said...
A financial crisis in China would harm its economy, decrease China's purchase of U.S. exports, and reduce China's ability to fund U.S. borrowing, particularly to cover the U.S. budget deficit.

An economic crisis in China has the potential to raise U.S. interest rates, thereby placing major additional cost on U.S. businesses and individual consumers and producing dislocation in the U.S. economy.


It also could exacerbate Chinese domestic political tension in an unpredictable fashion. This is why the condition of China's financial system is of concern to the United States.

Saturday, November 25, 2006 10:50:25 PM


Anonymous said...
China has never revealed the exact composition of its foreign curr

honica jewinski said...

Because your jewish masters want you to.