November 26, 2006

Get ready America for the historic wave of foreclosures which will now consume so many areas


I doubt anyone, bankers, the government, local communities, charitable organizations, etc, have really thought through the housing disaster underway.

You'll see areas where homes are just burned to the ground in a desperate attempt by the homedebtor to get out. You'll see neighborhoods where nobody lives there. You'll see condo developments half-completed, an urban eyesore for all to see the folly of man. And you'll see the ugly legacy of this housing bubble for years to come. Go check out Colorado for a sneak preview.

In Colorado, the state with the nation's worst foreclosure rate, some neighborhoods have been spared the wave of house auctions. Others have been deeply wounded, and it is not just those losing their homes who get hurt.

In Montbello and Green Valley Ranch, existing-home values are falling as foreclosures spread. Burned-down houses sit abandoned for a year or more. For-sale signs carry notes of desperation. One offers a week-long Caribbean cruise to the buyer of a foreclosed house. "Zero down? Poor credit? First-time buyer? Call for a free two-minute pre-approval," another urges.

From August to October, the median sale price on existing homes in Green Valley Ranch was $185,450, down from $201,000 during the same months a year ago, according to real estate website Trulia.com. In Montbello, median sale prices dropped from $175,385 to $164,950.

44 comments:

Anonymous said...

"Or, looking at this astounding $1000 trillion number, it is roughly 20 times the total world yearly GDP. In other words, derivatives have bet 20 times the value of every possible income of the world for 20 years. Which means that, if that market even hiccups, there will be astounding losses. Only a 5% derivatives loss based on $1000 trillion of notional value (the actual leveraged amounts) results in a loss of $50 trillion! Or, one year of total world GDP!"

keith said...

when everyone is complacent that "it can't happen", well, that's when it can happen

buzzard killa said...

Everyone is going down like a cheap ho this time. Governments, banks, GSEs, private equities. Head for the hills. Bury your valuables somewhere remote. The S will hit the F within the next twenty years for sure, maybe even next year.

kilobar said...

People in the Denver area still don't get it. Hell, they don't even know it is going on. When the foreclosures from the ARM resets kick-in and make headlines, people will finally open their eyes and the bear market will set in with a vengeance.

NYC_COP said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
NYC_COP said...

Has anyone seen the SpongeBob Square pants "Karate Island" espisode. I have 3 kids, so I did not have a choice, I had to watch it. SpongeBob is told via a video tape that he has won a contest and he is King of "Karate Island". I'll cut to the chase. It turns out that this is a real estate scam. I thought HPers would get a kick out of it.

Anonymous said...

but real estate only goes UP UP UP!!!

Anonymous said...

what color was the guy who reloaded a second clip

Enorah said...

So does anyone have any knowledge here about RealtyTrac? Do you like it? Is it worth it?

Thanks

Anonymous said...

Valley Foreclosures Up 112%

It is a disturbing trend local experts say will continue now that the real estate boom has ended and interest rates are slowly rising. Fresno and Merced now rank among the top areas in the entire state where home loans are likely to default.

Real estate brokers and others looking for a deal gathered outside the Fresno County Courthouse for this home foreclosure auction.
The number of foreclosed homes in the Valley has risen dramatically these past few months.

Billy Richardson says that trend will continue locally.

Foreclosure specialist Billy Richardson said, "Families got into these adjustable rates about 1-2 years ago. These interest rates are going up and now their mortgage rates are sometimes doubling. They're not able to make these payments, so a lot more homes go over here to the auction downtown."

http://abclocal.go.com/
kfsn/story?section=
local&id=4700272

Anonymous said...

Burning your house to the ground won't get you out. Insurance companies pay replacement cost. You'll still owe the same amount on your house after the insurance company rebuilt it for 1/3 what you paid for it.

Sorry Charlie.

Anonymous said...

"Burning your house to the ground won't get you out. Insurance companies pay replacement cost. You'll still owe the same amount on your house after the insurance company rebuilt it for 1/3 what you paid for it"

I doubt any insurance company will pay for damages intentionally caused by the owner. If anything, the owner is looking at felony arson.

Mr. Smith said...

Montbellow is in the traditional high-crime zone of Denver. This area soaks up the lion's share of the Denver PD budget.

No way is this area representative of the Colorado Front Range.

Anonymous said...

As to the Gary Swann conflict...

"Ask any Realtor out there if they know or really care about the types of loans there clients are getting. They may say yes but my assumption is they just want to make the sale. Ask any mortgage loan officer if he or she cares about what loan program they put their client in. Many will say yes but the reality is that they just want to close the loan and get their commission. First greed took over. Now it is a matter of survival."

stuff said...

Marriott, Starwood, and Hilton were downgraded today. These are the Big Three Timeshare/secondhome Companies, and we are in the peak vacation travel/TS buying season.
Just sayin.

borkafatty said...

This week the U.S. dollar was carved up like a Thanksgiving turkey. Against the Swiss franc, Euro, British pound, and Japanese yen, the dollar lost 3%, 2.2%, 2% and 1.8% of its value respectively. To put those declines into perspective, in terms of the Euro the Dow Jones’s 60 point plus decline this week translates into the equivalent of a 320 point decline when measured in euros. In fact, year to date the Dow is only up by about 3.5% when priced in Euros, compared to its 14.5 % advance when measured in depreciating U.S. dollars. From its high in 2000, the Euro price of the Dow is down by over 27%. In terms of gold, the world’s only legitimate money, the picture is even worse. Priced in gold the Dow is off better than 50% from its 2000 peak, and actually down over 7% thus far this year. So much for Wall Street’s phony rally!
Isadi many months ago the Dollar @ 80 is coming and was branded a fool..well it is coming, I predict sometime in February..maybe sooner pending any catastrophic event of sorts.

Don’t make the mistake of thinking that this is somehow a problem for foreigners. It is Americans who will feel the losses the greatest, as it will result in substantial increases in both consumer prices and interest rates, and in declining assets prices, particularly for residential real estate. In the other words, what we own will be worth a lot less and what we need to buy will cost a lot more

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borkafatty said...

Has anyone seen the SpongeBob Square pants "Karate Island" espisode. I have 3 kids, so I did not have a choice, I had to watch it. SpongeBob is told via a video tape that he has won a contest and he is King of "Karate Island". I'll cut to the chase. It turns out that this is a real estate scam. I thought HPers would get a kick out of it.

-------------

Did anyone watch the War At Home Episode last night?

Long story short, it was a neighbor on neighbor fight, so one neighbor turned around and said to his wife:

" Thats it we are selling and getting out of here"

the wife turns and says:

"Ya ok dave with our First mortgage second mortgage and HELOC we might as well pack up our stuff and walk away"...no bull sh!t..

I was like to my wife did she just say what i thought she said? Yup..man my wife hates it when i say I told you so.

Anonymous said...

A recession is when your neighbor loses his job. A depression is when you lose your job. A new wrinkle on that old thought given the near full employment in the U.S. ...
Could it be that a recession will occur when your neighbor loses his house and the "investment" made there and a depression will occur when you've lost your house and the "investment" made there?

In other words, still working (somewhere) but part of a growing number of working poor just getting by and eaking out a living and not having the money and/or psychological security necessary to make large purchases having suffered a terrible loss.

Just a thought.
Smug Bastard

Anonymous said...

Head for the hills. Bury your valuables somewhere remote.

Hmmm... how am I going to bury my chickens, cows, pigs, and other fioodstuff... and still make sure they're edible over the next 20 years?

Ohhhh... I get it... you were talking about gold or something.

You know... when people are hungry - what makes you think they're going to trade their chickens for your gold? If things will get as bad as Kieth suggests, then burying your valuables will be the LEAST of your worries.

Something which people are not really aware of - over 100 calories of oil energy are used to produce 1 calorie of food energy in North America. In other words, a typical person eating 2500 calories a day, actually consumes 25,000 calories in oil.

So... the fact is, the disaster CAN'T happen. If it does, then people (farmers who run their machinery on diesel oil) won't be able to afford to buy the oil because the US dollar will be so devalued. And if that happens, crops don't get planted in the spring and people will start to starve in the late summer. (No matter how much gold you have - you can't buy soemthing that doesn't exist)

Unfortunately, you are caught in a "technological trap". Your lifestyle will either continue as it is going, or you will fight wars in the mideast for dwindling resources, or you will die.

Anonymous said...

Where did you predict the DOW was going to end 2006 Keith? I forget...

buzzard killa said...

Head for the hills. Bury your valuables somewhere remote.


Actually, I had envisioned keith running out in the woods with a shovel to bury the family silver. Just making a funny. Food, clothing, shelter. Amazing how few people understand this concept any longer. Apparently you do though.

Mark in San Diego (LV TODAY) said...

LIVE from LAS VEGAS today. . .watching the other shoe drop - the stock market - as I predicted time and again - 9800 DOW by Dec. 31. . .fund managers have nothing to loose by selling their positions and locking in gains. . .and with the housing market crashing with foreclosures. . the end is now.

Anonymous said...

185 down from 201!

Not enough!

honica jewinski said...

It's a housing holocaust! Oy vey!

Anonymous said...

Think burning down your house is the answer?

Just ask the guy who purchased a box of very rare expensive cigars. He insured them, then smoked them, made a claim with the insurer that the cigars were lost in a fire! After a little investigating they had him arrested for placing a false claim!

hemorrhoidforhousing said...

I'm planning on moving to Northern Colorado in a few years so it is nice to have reality returning now instead of then.

It is a beautiful place to live, not everybody wants to live there and I'm going to make sure I get Colorado plates to replace my California plates before we move there.

Anonymous said...

From 2 above:

I remember that one. The guy was arrested for Arson!

Anonymous said...

Actually, I had envisioned keith running out in the woods with a shovel to bury the family silver.

:->

Yes... I'm sure alot of people will be doing that. Sort of reminds me of the archeologists who dug up the remains of those fleeing the eruption of Pompei. Alot of the rich were weighed down with gold.

It's not like anyone escaped that disaster... but the rich were consoled into thinking that by having something of value - it would somehow cause a different outcome... for them.

Unfortunately, the ash cloud (at over thousands of degrees in temperature) doesn't distinguish and it devoured the rich and poor equally. In much the same way, the looming economic disaster will do the same.

The smart people were the ones who left Pompei when the rumblings first started. But then - why abandon a nice comfy warm city in order to make it on your own in the (relatively) wilder Italian countryside? Anyone who could afford to leave Pompei was probably a master with dozens of slaves. The poor and middle class were stuck where they were.

And so too - here we are today. Alot of people feeding of the teats of oil, and big government spending and social programs. It's very comfy. Why give those up to try and make it on your own and possibly fail?

Say... did you just feel some rumbling?

Mammoth said...

Bork wrote:
“This week the U.S. dollar was carved up like a Thanksgiving turkey.”
-------------------
When the dollar starts dropping against the ruble, it’s time to take one last shot of vodka and head for the hills.

Or buy gold...

buzzard killa said...

...did you just feel some rumbling?

What I heard was BOOM. Now I am being pelted by pumice.

hemorrhoidforhousing said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
hemorrhoidforhousing said...

Here in N. California we went to the 49th Annual SF Car Show on saturday. As we were coming back across the Bay Bridge I pointed out the section that fell in 89 during Loma Prieta to my boys.

We don't have pumice coming down on us here. But there will be a whole bunch of people getting plastered when the next one hits and knocks down their overpriced POS in the city and all along the penninsula...

buzz kill said...

Natural disasters are good for the economy. It is an excuse for the gubbermint to print billion$ in new money. The worst thing that could happen to the housing market is for it to continue on unabated. Build, build, build, buzz kill needs a cheap mcmansion.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

buzz kill,
Are you my Fellow Monkey Human Muntant?
AKA; Porkey Pine Man?
You are aren't you.
Stop changing your name, Please.
No, I think I will change mine again!

Anonymous said...

Holy Sh**
This is getting scary, market collapsing dollar busting and fing idiots still in denial. Well well fun time to pick up the pieces. Maybe we should all join Keith in England and wait this shit out....

Anonymous said...

It's called "Jewish Lightning"

Stuck in So Pa said...

Anonymous said...
Think burning down your house is the answer?

Just ask the guy who purchased a box of very rare expensive cigars. He insured them, then smoked them, made a claim with the insurer that the cigars were lost in a fire! After a little investigating they had him arrested for placing a false claim!

Not a false claim. I remember that one! The guy insured his box of 24 expensive cigars against FIRE and theft (insurance co should have seen where this one was headed). He later filed a claim stating the during the "normal, accepted, and non abusive enjoyment of his possession, 24 small fires resulted that destroyed his possession. The ins co said: "Bullsh#t, you smoked em!"
and refused to pay.

The judge sided with the guy saying that anybody stupid enough to insure cigars against fire loss should be required to pay. It must have been a poorly worded contract. The ins co had to pay up.

Happy ending though, because the ins co did their homework. As the guy makes his way out of the courtroom, he is met by the ins co rep, asst DA, and the sheriff's dept and arrested for 24 counts of felony arson. Seems its illegal in his state to deliberately torch insured property, whether or not you file a claim. Apparently you have to uninsure before destroying it to avoid any possible attempt at fraud.

Hate insurance companies, but also hate crooks and con men!

Joey said...

I was born in the 1970s, so I remember all the abandoned buildings and homes just sitting around.

This was in Manhattan, a place that's supposed to be different from everywhere else.

If you ever see those great classics like Serpico, Pelham 123, Warriors, etc... that's how the city really looked like during the 1970s and early 1980s. Grimy, dirty, hard-edged.

It was a time where it was cheaper for landlords to just walk away. The city was the biggest property holder, due to foreclosures and tax defaults.

The city was actually selling those buildings for $1.00 (one dollar), and still couldn't get rid of them. And this was everywhere in Manhattan, except for the upper east side along Park Avenue to Central Park.

buzz kill said...

FMW, how very astute of you. I am that I am. I am called by many different names, I am slippery that way. I could go on to list my various aliases, some you like, some you don't. As the dove eyes the porcupine with solicitude so too I watch this, well, never mind. :-)

Signed,

Strawman
buzz kill
bugsy
mark
matt
mort
mr. x
poor q pine
buzz saw
etc
etc

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

I KNEW you were MARK too! I KNEW IT.
LOL
I like every one. I like all of your personas.
I like to rant too, and no one cares here. (^: Especially a fellow Trek Fan.
SOOOOO
FUN.
I am Trailer Park Refugee
and TOOMUCHTIMEONMYHANDS
InfidelWoman is dead to me though, she went insane, but Mort is cool..

hehehehe
TTFN

death knell said...

(snickers)

Edgar said...

Hey FMW, check out my latest rant, er, Xmas blog. Warning: foul language. Ho ho ho.

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