November 30, 2006

BUBBLETALK: November thread #2 to talk about the historic housing meltdown

Post articles (tinyurl), rant away, keep it clean, have a good chat


Anonymous said...


AndyMiamiBeach said...

Without a doubt, the main stream media has started a campaign to alleviate the worried consumer/citizen. Check out the analysis in the link below. This will give you a sense of what may potentially happen in the next five years:

beebs said...

Only one of the four homes for sale around my block has sold this year.
I guess they are waiting for spring.

foxwoodlief said...

Here in Austin things are selling well and in most neighborhoods there are very few for sale signs. I drive around getting the feel for the area and drive up and down streets and am lucky to see one for sale sign every 30-50 blocks. New home sales seems to have slowed as people worry about the national market or maybe it is the season? My realtor says November is one of her busiest months and she has quite a few showings and six closings this month. She says Jan-March is the hungry season for her, which she budgets for.

I was shocked to see one of the houses I sold in Phoenix and the guy refinanced it in December for $230,000 (he bought in 2000 from me for $139,00) sold it in one week. The house is only 1025 sq ft in a historic district in central Phoenix. Zillow had showed the price go down to $198,000 before rising to $205,000, up and down, up and down, but he sold and covered all his expenses. One of our best friends lives next door and keeps us updated.

With Google going over $500 I guess there is still a lot of capital seeking havens and real estate still seems to be a haven for now. I think as people see interest rates continue down, they've dropped almost 3/8% here and people sense they are not over paying they are still buying.

kilobar said...

Economists only look at supply, demand and interest rates. They aren't taking the mortgage derivatives into consideration. I don't think I've seen any bullish or neutral housing projections that took the re-setting ARMs as a contibuting factor in projecting future prices.

The Thinker said...

The economists are responding to the fact that in many areas, the inventory levels are beginning to plateau or even come down a bit. The fact that inventory is plateauing is probably attributable to frustrated and defeated would-be sellers pulling their homes off the market for the holidays with the intention of having them come online as new listings in the spring.

Richard said...

Oil Director Gunnar Berge fears that the
Norwegian oil production may fall
dramatically in a few years, unless new finds are
made within a few years.

Anonymous said...

Subprime Loans Doing Badly

Stuck in So Pa said...

With the liquidity spigot still wide open for easy (free) money, the Fed can make the 'good times roll’ (or at least the appearance) for a few more years. That, along with the MSM’s : the bubble is over B.S., should get the old consumer juices flowing in time for Black Friday!

Anonymous said...

"The latest blog news"

Anonymous said...

"With the liquidity spigot still wide open for easy (free) money, the Fed can make the 'good times roll’ (or at least the appearance) for a few more years."

Sorry, they cannot do that anymore. Consumers have already borrowed to the max and everybody with a pulse is already in the game.

FED will only cause dollar crash combined with skyhigh interest rates if they continue printing more and more money.

Anonymous said...

Things couldn't be worse in North Scottsdale. In my development of 150 homes there are 22 homes for sale. Most all of them are investors. The builder recent reduced their last spec. $200K the homeowners are irrate. Nothing seems to be moving. Several developments nearby are in the same position. At the rate listings are selling, there is at least 3 years worth of inventory. Toll Brothers just cleared a development for 600+ homes. I'm worried that land is going to be sitting empty for a while.

Thankfully we cashed out of a house we bought in 2004 for $815K and sold this June for $1.535. We were able to take the cash and buy our current house for $817K. So happy to have downsized and to be living without a mortgage. So many of our neighbors are living beyond their means. They think we are crazy to be living in our current house. But I'll have the last laugh because I know they can't even pay their real estate taxes. Now many with adjusting mortgages are trying to get out, but they can't sell.

Things are going to get much worse before they get better here.

Mammoth said...

Last week I posted:
“Edmonds, WA is a quiet bedroom community nestled alongside Puget Sound, just north of Seattle. It is fairly affluent with lots of retirees, and cute knick-knack shops lining its downtown streets.

There was a condo for sale there; every day I walked past it on the way to work. It started out at $460K back in June. I’d thought about contacting the agent, evaluating the place and then offering her ½ the asking price, but never had the time for this.

The price stayed there for a long while, then dropped to $410K. Still no takers. Then the price dropped to $399K, then to $395K. One day last month, surprise surprise, the sign was gone! Usually RE is posted with a “SOLD” sign attached to the “for sale” sign, but not in this case.

So either the place finally sold, or the seller just took the condo off the market. In other words, either the buyer got (at least) 14% shaved off the asking price, OR a 14% price cut still didn’t move this condo.

Looks like housing in the Seattle area has passed it’s peak.”
On Monday 11/20, the “For Sale” sign was back up, this time by Remax (the one with the, the balloon image), with the asking price dropped again to $389K. This is a classic case of chasing a declining value.


Anonymous said...

Mammouth -

They should drop it $325, then maybe they would have some takers. Its funny we made offers on two houses before we purchased this one. Neither would come down enough. They are still on the market, one listed for our previous offer and the other list $50K under what we offered in June. When will these sellers learn? They are all so full of greed. You would think they had their heads stuck in the sand, unaware what a 180 the market has made.

Anonymous said...

Sorry Mammoth not "Mammouth"

foxwoodlief said...

I don't know. Last night read in the Economist that prices on homes went up 9.5% in nine Australian cities and up 47% in Perth this year to the third quarter.

Last year there was talk of how over-heated their market was and then the fear the bubble would burst, a contraction and draw back in sales, a slight decrease in prices and now this?

I had posted some stats from the Economist from June 2005 that showed Five major countries outside the USA that showed the increase in price in other countries from over 112% to 221% where the USA was only 73% and Australia was in the top four and now this? If gauging markets and potential outcomes by these countries I think the USA has a long way to go before a "historic meltdown."

I am beginning to believe that the past year has been a "touch and go" and ready for another slight take-off in the spring barring a major calamity or war.

With the stock market booming I think they money game isn't over yet. I do believe a correction will have to come and the sooner the better but I'm beginning to doubt it has arrived.

kilobar said...

The market is soft here in Denver as well. A friend of mine had a downtown loft on the market for $550k. He got offered $525k in July and turned it down. SInce then he's had to lower the price twice and now has it going for $515k with no takers.

Mammoth said...

Another sign of the true state of the economy - last weekend I was a vendor at a craft fair in Edmonds, WA - a fairly affluent community just north of Seattle.

My observation was that there were much fewer people coming through, than in previous years. All of the other vendors also commented that both traffic and sales were down this year. One vendor remarked that the number of credit card purchases was way down from last year as well.

In my best year I sold over $800; this time around it was $460. What I sell are hand-painted miniature lacquer boxes which I buy directly from the craftspeople in Russia. (To view samples, you may perform a Google search on “Russian Lacquer box” and follow the link of your choice. You would not believe the huge markup over what the crafts people receive for their products!)

What I was selling spans the range from very simple designs to incredibly detailed paintings, and my prices ranged from $9 to $59.

Most customers first made a beeline for the finest boxes, and then purchased something more towards the lower end of the price range, often making comments like “Wish that I could afford that other looks so nice but I don’t have much to spend this year.”

So those recent forecasts saying this is going to be a yawner of a holiday shopping season are likely spot-on. With food prices, energy prices, and the cost of everything else increasing as well, people are squeezed.

So no, I do not believe that the economy, nor housing has yet hit the bottom.


keith said...

I looked at lofts in Denver 2 years ago and knew for certain we were in the mother of all bubbles. Renting so much cheaper than buying.

$550,000 becomes $200,000 really quick... just read some Denver papers from 1990.

Jay said...

Yet another gutless anonymous poster said:
"At the rate listings are selling, there is at least 3 years worth of inventory."

He's in Scottsdale. Don't know where he gets his stats, but 3 years is laughable. The actual absorption rate in Phoenix Valley wide is about six months. Sure there are pockets where it's worse. But three years? That's just asinine.

Anonymous said...

Jay -

He would be a she...

In DC Ranch (North Scottsdale) there have been 100 sales in 2006 so far. Currenty there are 182 properties for sale (resales). This number doesn't include new construction. The rest of Phoenix/Scottsdale hasn't been hit as hard. But trust me now that Toll Brothers is ready to put in another 600+ homes at Windgate Pass. It will be years until the inventory is worked out.

Happy Turkey day Jay!

foxwoodlief said...

I don't know. Last night read in the Economist that prices on homes went up 9.5% in nine Australian cities and up 47% in Perth this year to the third quarter.

Last year there was talk of how over-heated their market was and then the fear the bubble would burst, a contraction and draw back in sales, a slight decrease in prices and now this?

I had posted some stats from the Economist from June 2005 that showed Five major countries outside the USA that showed the increase in price in other countries from over 112% to 221% where the USA was only 73% and Australia was in the top four and now this? If gauging markets and potential outcomes by these countries I think the USA has a long way to go before a "historic meltdown."

I am beginning to believe that the past year has been a "touch and go" and ready for another slight take-off in the spring barring a major calamity or war.

With the stock market booming I think they money game isn't over yet. I do believe a correction will have to come and the sooner the better but I'm beginning to doubt it has arrived.

What do you think of what has happened so far in those markets that are way higher than ours?

Benvolio Montague said...

Canadian RE cheerleaders heap fuel on fire:

In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king.

Anonymous said...

From the article: "However, a recent study by CIBC World Markets found that non-conventional mortgages make up about 5 per cent of the Canadian market, a small amount when compared with about 20 per cent in the U.S."

I've never seen non-conventional mortgages specified as a percentage of the entire US mortgage market - only varying percentages by state and only over the last couple of years. It's hard to believe that 20% of ALL US mortgages are non-conventional. Unless their definition of non-conventional is different from ours.

Also, "Over the last six months the median price of all existing U.S. homes dropped 11.5 per cent to $200,000 (U.S.) from $223,000, according to the U.S. National Association of Realtors."

That sure isn't getting much play here in the US.

Anonymous said...

"Is the dollar FREE FALLING?"

Anonymous said...

One factor putting pressure on the dollar was a cut in US growth forecasts from the Council of Economic Advisers, George W. Bush's economic advisors.

The CEA blamed the downturn in the US housing market for its revisions. Tim Fox at Dresdner Kleinwort said the news had increased market speculation that the Federal Reserve would start cutting US interest rates in March.

Anonymous said...

I recall an old article "ANALYSIS-FX reserve shift out of dollars can be costly"

However, with the housing market tanking, and rumors of the Fed lowering interest rate in 2007 - it seems Cheng Siwei recommendation is making more sense for central banks to diversify their US assets if the Dollar sell-off intensify?

But the Federal Reserve's 15 interest rate hikes since June 2004 has taken U.S. interest rates to 4.75 percent from historic lows of 1 percent in 2003, which makes ditching dollars less attractive from the yield point of view.

"The story of central banks shifting out of dollars has been a problem for the dollar. But the Fed has been aggressive and U.S. interest rates are rapidly going up. So the cost is getting high to shift out of dollars," said Johan Javeus, currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.

Speculation of central bank reserves diversification was partly behind the dollar's tumble in the three years to late 2004 which took it to record lows against the euro.

Central banks worldwide, which hold more than $4 trillion in total reserves, are increasingly important players in the $1.9-trillion-a-day FX market.
Asia and Russia hold more than 70 percent of the world's reserves.

Talk of central bank diversification intensified on Tuesday after vice chief of China's national parliament Cheng Siwei said the country, which has the world's largest reserves, should trim its holdings of U.S. debt and could stop buying dollar bonds.

China's central bank said however Cheng was expressing his personal views.

However, these conditions have changed allot since that old article was written.

Anonymous said...

Carry-Trade Craze

During the past decade, the yen-carry trade has become a staple for many punters. A popular form of the strategy exploits the gap between U.S. and Japanese yields. Anyone borrowing for next to nothing in yen and parking the funds in U.S. Treasuries received a twofold payoff: the 3-plus percentage-point yield difference and the dollar's rise versus the yen. The latter dynamic boosts profits by the time they're converted back to yen.

Yet as the BOJ raises rates and more investors buy into Japan's revival, the yen is sure to rise, much to the chagrin of carry-trade aficionados. Realization the trade is moving against investors may send shockwaves through global markets.

Perhaps BOJ won't raise interest rate, but with a slowing US housing market and the US Federal Reserve looking at dropping interest rate it seems like the dollar has no where to go but down.

It would start slowly with speculators suddenly closing positions that are becoming more expensive: dumping Treasuries, gold, Shanghai real estate, shares in Google Inc. or whatever else they used yen borrowings to bet on. The chain reaction would accelerate once the mainstream media jumped on the story.

If all this sounds far-fetched, think back to late 1998, which offers an example of the damage a panic among carry-traders can do.

Remember 1998

Anonymous said...

Yen surges

At the same time, the yen soared across the board, shrugging off the government's downgrade of its economic assessment and weak trade and industry activity data.

Chandler said the yen rallied as bearish sentiment towards the dollar sparked an unwinding of long dollar and euro positions.

Meanwhile, market talk that the Japanese authorities had encouraged exporters to buy yen has provided an excuse to trim back yen carry trade positions, he said.

Carry trades refer to the practice of speculators making profits by borrowing the yen and the Swiss franc at very low costs and reinvesting in higher-yielding currencies and assets, such as the Australian dollar and the New Zealand dollar.

Will the unwinding of Yen carry trade have an impact to the $370 Trillion global market for derivatives?

Anonymous said...

US SWAPS-Spreads widen on light, pre-holiday trade

Spreads on U.S. interest rate swaps widened on Wednesday, the first time in seven sessions, on light trade ahead of the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday.

Short-dated spreads moved out as much as 0.75 basis point on the day, as short-dated swaps lagged Eurodollar futures, analysts said.

Geronimo said...

Lou Dobbs - The War on the Middle Class
Book Introduction, pp. 1 - 12

"Whether the issue is a total lack of border security, an illegal immigration crisis, taxation, education, or jobs, big business and big government are unchecked in their attacks on the common good. Most of our elected officials, whether Democrat or Republican, have been bought and paid for through campaign donations from corporate lobbyists and other special interest groups. We've reached a stage where lobbyists no longer merely influence legislation but write the actual language of what becomes law."

Anonymous said...

geronimo: "We've reached a stage where lobbyists no longer merely influence legislation but write the actual language of what becomes law."

Do you know of any place on the web where legislation is spelled out with Congressional names attached indicating how they've voted? If there is no such place, maybe there should be so we can finally start shining a spotlight on just how little the "common good" is being protected by those WE entrust to protect it.

Anonymous said...

The euro touched its highest against the dollar since June as business confidence in Germany, Europe's largest economy, unexpectedly advanced to a 15-year high.

Anonymous said...

More Bad News for the Dollar

European government bonds took a knock from news of a pick up in business optimism in the area's biggest economy.

The Ifo index, which measures confidence in Germany, jumped from 105.3 in October to 106.8 in November, equalling the 15-year high reached in June. Economists had been looking for a slight decline in the index to 105.2.

The data strengthened European Central Bank rate hike expectations and bond prices at the shorter end took the brunt of the selling.

Anonymous said...

Can there be more bad news for the Dollar?

The U.K. pound rose for a fifth day versus the dollar, its longest winning run in three weeks, on speculation the Bank of England will keep raising interest rates into 2007.

The U.K. currency rose the most in three months against its U.S. counterpart yesterday after minutes from the central bank's latest rate-setting meeting showed the nine-member committee, led by Governor Mervyn King, voted 7-2 in favor of raising the key rate by a quarter point to a five-year high of 5 percent.

Anonymous said...

The common currency clambered up to 1.2967 dollars in European trading after the Munich-based ifo institute said its key business confidence survey returned in November to the 15-year high that it hit in June.

"The fundamental picture corresponds to a stronger euro,"

The stronger euro follows a raft of economists' forecasts that the common currency would be able to gain ground against the US dollar as evidence that growth in the world's biggest economy would turn down in the run up to the new year.

Indeed, ECB chief Jean-Claude Trichet has already flagged the bank's sixth rate rise since December with analysts expecting the Frankfurt-based bank to hike rates by another 25 basis points to 3.50 per cent at its meeting next month.

Adding to the downbeat economic picture facing the US economy, President George W Bush's economic panel of advisers this week cut their 2007 growth forecasts.

Signs that US economic growth might be losing strength have also led to a divergence in interest rate expectations for the eurozone and the US.

Anonymous said...

Paulson and the Plunge Protection gang discuss the problems that might occur with hedge funds and derivatives, plus the "government's ability to respond to a financial crisis,"

Pualson must have given the Plunge Protection Team - a. k. a. Working Group - a half day on Wednesday, because the Team allow the dollar free fall the day before Thanksgiving.

Anonymous said...

World oil prices have staged a modest rally on market speculation that the OPEC cartel could announce further crude production cuts, dealers said.

If the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries cut production to raise the price of crude oil it could put more pressure on the current US economic conditions further weakening the dollar.

Anonymous said...

A quiet night turned into a bloodbath for the USD as it plummeted against the majors

Anonymous said...

Canada dollar jumps versus US Dollar after Canadian Core inflation raced ahead at 2.3 percent in October.

The Canadian dollar shot higher versus the greenback on Wednesday, as data showing a sharp rise in core Canadian consumer prices prompted heavy buying versus a weak U.S. currency.

Canadian bond prices rose slightly, as the inflation data did not alter expectations that interest rates will be steady for the next several months.

Richard said...

The OPEC reduction in production of oil - is not voluntary.

IMO of course.

Anonymous said...

The ruble is likely to continue its advance against the dollar at the next UTS session.

Dollar continues to slide vs. euro and ruble

Anonymous said...

Russia Gold and foreign currency reserves up $1.9bn

So, Russia has slightly reduced the huge gap from China and Japan, which have the largest gold and foreign currency reserves in the world. China’s reserves top $1 trillion, and Japan has more than $900 billion.

Alexei Ulyukayev, the Bank of Russia's first deputy chairman, on October 16 said he may lift holdings of yen to "several percent" of the nation's US$273 billion of reserves, from almost zero percent.

Anonymous said...

Yesterday morning, the battle between the BoJ and the government continued expanding.

The government downgraded the outlook for the economy. This was the first downgrade since 2004. This was widely anticipated and is seen as a warning shot to the Bank of Japan not to hike rates too fast.

The BoJ’s Iwata immediately (within minutes!) reacted with a statement that the Bank will use its (own) outlook for setting rates. The message to the government is clear: ‘do not try to meddle’…

But the reality of Japan in our view is still that the pressure of the government may be a factor to take into account when setting rates or having expectations for it going forward. The reluctance of the government is enough for us to see a December rate hike very difficult. The politically acceptable Q1 ’07 is now very likely, just ahead of the start of a new fiscal year on April 1, ’07.

Anonymous said...

Dollar Drops to 19-Month Low Versus Euro, Breaches $1.30 Level.

People's Bank of China Vice-Governor Wu Xiaoling said East Asia needs to reduce its reliance on dollar inflows because of the risk of a further slump in the currency. China's foreign- exchange reserves exceed $1 trillion, the world's largest.

Wu's comments were released today in an article circulated during a press conference in Beijing.

``China holds most of its reserves in the dollar and these comments may lead to speculation they will sell,''

Anonymous said...

U.S. Treasury debt prices rose in thin trade on Friday, pushing benchmark yields to nine-month lows, as a plunge in the dollar caused some investors to switch from stocks into government bonds.

But traders said the flight-to-safety flows of money could be temporary as sustained dollar weakness would make Treasuries less attractive to foreigners over time.

Anonymous said...

“If you are in the foreign-exchange world and you took a few days off for U.S. Thanksgiving, and ‘forgot' your Blackberry at the office, you will be forgiven if you are left slack-jawed when you return to work on Monday,”

“It seems that all the warts and blemishes that were apparent on the U.S. dollar have suddenly come to the attention of the market,”

The Canadian dollar rose more than half a cent against the greenback Friday as global currency traders shed the U.S. currency

Anonymous said...

The DOLLAR falls below the must defend 85 mark, the Plunge Protection Team got some work to do on Monday

Anonymous said...

The euro shot above $1.31 on Friday for the first time since April 2005.

Investors are wary that China, which holds the world's biggest foreign exchange reserves of above $1 trillion, might diversify out of dollar assets.

Anonymous said...

Can weak data on Durable Goods and New Home Sells bring the DOLLAR down further next week?

On Tuesday, US data includes October durable goods orders, which are forecast to fall 5.1% after a surprising 8.3% gain in September.

And US existing home sales figures an indicator to see how fast the US economy is contracting are forecast to be down slightly from the previous month, at 6.14 million versus 6.18 million.

Anonymous said...


The euro's surge this week above $1.30 after months of rangebound trading augurs a re-run, albeit a milder version, of the late 2004 rally when it reached its all time high.

Renewed talk of central bank diversification out of dollars, expectations of higher euro zone interest rates and signs of unwinding in overstretched carry trades have combined to lift the euro and send the dollar lower across the board.

The spike up in the euro and implied volatility on Friday suggest momentum is strong enough to push the euro back up toward its high at $1.3667.

Anonymous said...

Did European Hedge Funds bid up the Euro?

Anonymous said...

Hedge funds take sides on LSE bid battle

Anonymous said...

Home loan demand falls even though mortgage rates were lower. Does not look good for the DOLLAR.

Anonymous said...

What to Expect for the US Dollar on Monday

The US dollar has completely melted down with the Euro and British pound hitting a yearly high

Anonymous said...

As GCC approach 2010 with its goal of a single currency, is it for certain that the single currency will be peg to the Dollar.

UAE central bank chief Sultan Nasser Al Suweidi, whose central bank is shifting 10 per cent of its $25 billion reserves out of the dollar and largely into euros, said he expected the single currency to overtake the dollar by 2015.

'Even when you see Japanese trade transactions they are in US dollars. It's not a currency. It's very much controlled by the central bank of Japan and it's lost some of its ground. I would say it's lost confidence,' he said.

Anonymous said...

Foreign holders of U.S. Treasury bonds appeared unfazed by the dollar's plunge on Friday, but should the decline prove more than a one-day event, bond investors could find their nerves put to a test.

Anonymous said...

Why the dollar is falling so fast

Anonymous said...

Euro zone M3 money supply is released on Tuesday and is seen rising 8.7 percent, economists polled by Reuters say.

M3 – a mix of cash, short-term bank deposits and money market instruments – is closely watched by the ECB.

France and Germany report unemployment data on Wednesday, euro zone November harmonised inflation on Thursday is seen up 0.2 percent on the month.

“We have a raft of data and expect it to support the case for further (euro zone) rate increases beyond those which we see in December,” said UBS' Teather.

Anonymous said...

does any one have data on when these ARMs are comming due?


Anonymous said...

The ARMS are coming due shortly before the end of the world. Or is it the world is ending when the ARMS come due? I forget, it's so confusing.

Woe is me.

Enorah said...


Does anyone here use it? Does anyone have feedback? Does anyone know the fee? I can not seem to locate the fee after the 7 day free trial expires. Thanks!

Anonymous said...

The dollar fell sharply Friday against major currencies raising fresh concerns about the U.S. economy and inflation.

The U.S. currency hit a 23-month low against the pound and 20-month low against the euro. The pound rose as high as $1.9336 while the euro hit $1.3085, exceeding its previous high this year by more than a cent and the Japanese currency also benefited sharply.

Anonymous said...

Will China dump dollar-denominated assets?

The risk of a sell-off of U.S. securities by China has been a persistent concern for Wall Street in recent years.

The sell-off in the currency highlights risks in the U.S. budget and trade deficits.

A major threat to the U.S. economy from a tumbling dollar would be higher inflation, because a weaker currency could drive up prices of the imported goods that consumers relish

Anonymous said...

Slumping Dollar Boosts T-Bond Prices; 10-Year Note Yield Hits A 9-Month Low

Traders said while foreign investors could seek a safe haven in Treasuries for now, prolonged dollar weakness would erode their appeal over time as it reduced their monetary value.

"They may be safer buying Treasuries than stocks, but they are not safer from a currency perspective. A dollar, whether it is invested in Treasuries or stocks, is still a dollar," said Adam Brown, co-head of U.S. Treasury trading at Barclays Capital in New York.

Anonymous said...

Gold Falls From Highest in Nine Days on Concern IMF May Sell

Will Foreign Institutional Investors use this as an opportunity to diversify out of US Treasury?

Anonymous said...

What is the chances one of the Federal Reserve governor will make a statement like this next week to slow down the Dollar free fall?

"The financial markets perceive that the Fed is now done with the tightening cycle and now expect an easing at some point in 2007. Although we expect core inflation to moderate going forward, we believe that the currently elevated rate will keep the Fed from lowering interest rates despite signs of slowing economic activity. We expect that the Fed will keep the fed funds rate steady at the current 5.25 percent through 2008.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Found This Richard, Thought of you.

Russia Proves 'Peak Oil' is a Misleading Zionist Scam

and this.

The Myth Of Peak Oil

found them here and

Anonymous said...

Lol! Is your toilet clogged??

It's all the fault International Zionist Plumber Conspiracy.

So Batman, riddle me this---if them evil Jews were so powerful, why didn't they make lots of oil under Israel?

tom said...

The propaganda machines are starting to ratchet up the BS.
Her are some well known facts from the Mogambo Guru

"And China's demand for oil? Soaring! In fact, oil imports literally jumped off the charts in 2005 - up 45%! More than 3 billion people in China and across Asia are coming out of the dark ages ... joining Western society ... building homes ... installing modern plumbing ... buying cars ... tasting new foods ... having their desires awakened ... and consuming natural resources like never before! Believe me: When almost half the total population of the entire world suddenly begins demanding a scarce natural resource, you can count on prices shooting for the moon. Here's a little hint: In only ten years, with demand increasing at 45% a year, China will be using 41 times more oil than it does now right now! Hahaha! Ten years!"

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...


Anonymous said...

A financial crisis in China would harm its economy, decrease China's purchase of U.S. exports, and reduce China's ability to fund U.S. borrowing, particularly to cover the U.S. budget deficit.

An economic crisis in China has the potential to raise U.S. interest rates, thereby placing major additional cost on U.S. businesses and individual consumers and producing dislocation in the U.S. economy.

It also could exacerbate Chinese domestic political tension in an unpredictable fashion. This is why the condition of China's financial system is of concern to the United States.

Anonymous said...

China has never revealed the exact composition of its foreign currency reserves, but market speculation suggests at least 70% is in dollars. With Chinese reserves having recently topped $1 trillion, a move away from the dollar could have significant implications.

uknowwhoiyam said...


Looks like Keith got all bent out of shape (I have to admit that lubricant comment was ROTF hilarious) and threatened to have his flying monkeys attack another blogger's blog.

Shame on you, Keith.

bubble_watcher said...

The "Family Guy"!


Anonymous said...

Here is something from Serin's inlaws:

kilobar said...

Wow! Greg Swann is talking serious trash about this blog and Keith. It's practically libelous.

Erion Shehaj said...

The majority of the bubble talk usually refers to areas that in the last five or six years have had insane appreciation like certain cities in California, Phoenix etc. These areas were appreciating at a steady rate of 25% per year, EVERY YEAR! At that rate, it has to deflate at some point. No one wants to buy a San Francisco Apartment for 13 million dollars! One thing that the bubble talk on TV has done however, is to change the psyche of the buyers that have gotten picky and sometimes arrogant since CNN has been telling them it is a buyer's market.

Check me out at

Anonymous said...


Top 10 Reasons Why Realtors Aren't Viewed As Professionals
They hand out refrigerator magnets and calendars.
They don’t put flyers in their flyer boxes.
They bulk-mail ghost-written newsletters with recipes.
They have “Million Dollar Producer” license frames on their fancy cars.
They brag about being “#1” and having the biggest “team”.
They don’t have a website/you can’t find their website/their website requires registration.
They focus on “closing the sale” instead of informing and advising.
They have memorized "scripts" to overcome objections.
They spew “think positive” talk as though that will cause a buyer to pay more or a seller to take less.
They often have less training than your barber, cosmetologist, hairdresser, or esthetician.

Anonymous said...

The central bank has set the yuan central parity rate at a record of 7.8526 to the dollar, according to the National Foreign Exchange Center.
The rate, published on the official Chinamoney website, compares with the midpoint of 7.8596 set the previous trading day.

Anonymous said...

Global Insight predicts that the euro will rise to $1.40 during 2007, implying that sterling will break through $2 and stay there.

keith said...

uknow - see my post on the disgusting and creepy greg swann.

it's war.

beebs said...

Fox and Friends Sunday Nov 26th. Some real estate bimbo named Kendra? stated that the demand for second homes and vacation homes was going to explode due to the demand from the thirty eight million baby boomers, who will be paying cash for the homes.

Jeebus wept.


FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Richard said...

"uknow - see my post on the disgusting and creepy greg swann.

it's war. "

Not because I like you Keith - but because I fight the good fight...

I posted on your defense on that thread.

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

that kendra propaganda is from the trump apprentice realtor girl

what a dumb bitch

Anonymous said...

Richard you must have gotten deleted over at greg swanns blog

Richard said...

Bork you gotta c this!!!

Anonymous said...

Fisher said that an inflation gauge relied on by the Fed (the index for core personal consumption expenditures) was malfunctioning four years ago.

This moved then Fed governor Ben S. Bernanke (now chairman) to deliver a dense and noteworthy speech, "Deflation: Making Sure 'It' Doesn't Happen Here," on Nov. 21, 2002.

Greenspan and party managed to work the Fed funds rate down to 1%, providing considerable fuel to the inflation in commodity and home prices over the past four years.

Fisher concluded that this looseness in the money supply was a mistake and that it was caused by faulty statistics. The Fed's favorite measure was underreporting inflation.

If nothing else, Fisher's diagnosis of the recent past is yet another good reason to dust off the works of economists from the Austrian School, particularly Friedrich Hayek's

He demonstrated that it was the divergent movements of different market prices during the business cycle that counted. Even a casual review of prices for different commodities, goods and services, as well as assets and the value of the dollar, would have enabled the Fed to avoid its mistake.

This, of course, doesn't provide much comfort for those who are now trying to unload real estate after being enveloped in the Fed's liquidity-driven housing bubble.

Richard said...

November 26, 2006

Death Knell of the US Dollar...
by Clive Maund

The dollar plunged with startling ferocity late last week, driven by heavy selling. This was very bearish action that signals panic, and the probable onset of a severe downtrend. A break below the crucial support at 80 on the dollar index is expected to mark the transition from a clandestine unloading of dollar assets to an all-out stampede to "get what you can for them" before it's too late.

Anonymous said...

``Hong Kong is so integrated with China that if there's a significant upward movement in the yuan, then the Hong Kong dollar would have to follow,''

Hong Kong Dollar Link to U.S. Shows Strain as Rate Gap Widens.

After gaining 5 percent since July, 2005, China's currency now trades at 7.8525 per dollar, closing in on the Hong Kong dollar rate of HK$7.7800.

beebs said...

Host Jonathan Bellusa is a Partner of Diablo Funding Group, Inc. in San Ramon Ca. He has been in the mortgage Lending Industry helping people buy homes, establish equity and save money.

I was listening to them today. They warned sellers NOT TO CUT the asking price because that would destroy the housing market. Wowser!

Anonymous said...

"One Country, One Currency"

Will a Stronger Yuan and Stronger Hong Kong dollar lead to a Weaker US DOLLAR?

On November 13th the yuan hit a new high of 7.864 to the dollar, putting it within a whisker of the Hong Kong dollar's trading band of HK$7.75-7.85 against its American counterpart. This has prompted some market speculation that as the yuan approaches parity with its traditionally stronger neighbour, which looks possible by the end of the year, Hong Kong will abandon its dollar peg and instead tie itself to the yuan.

Some say that such a marriage would be one made in hell.

However Hong Kong has paid a high price to maintain its dollar peg. Because interest-rate arbitrage takes place under a dollar peg, Hong Kong’s monetary policy is in reality left up to the Federal Reserve Board of the United States.

This is not a huge problem if there is strong synchronization between the business cycles of Hong Kong and the U.S., but unfortunately, in recent years, this condition has not been met.

Hence, in the long term, if ties between Hong Kong and the Chinese economy strengthen further and the international position of the yuan enhances in line with the rise in China’s power, it would be more natural to peg the Hong Kong dollar to the yuan, and finally unify the two'

In fact, Mr. Donald Tsang, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Chief Executive, said for the first time during a radio interview in May this year that on the condition that the yuan’s convertibility is realized, the Hong Kong dollar may be pegged to the yuan instead of the dollar in the future.

If the Chinese economy continues to grow at the pace that it has over the past quarter century, the unification of the two currencies may be realized sooner.

Anonymous said...

THE strengthening yuan passed a new landmark yesterday when it became more expensive than the Hong Kong dollar in the Chinese mainland banks' foreign-currency exchange system.

Traders said it was a sign the yuan would soon surpass the Hong Kong dollar in value on the currency market.

Anonymous said...

The Fed Bank Goal; One World Currency.
USD is going down. That is the plan.

keith said...

Anon with the currency updates - I hear you but don't post every article you see

hit the censor button. You're hogging the blog

Richard said...

Very possibly why Bush is headed to Jordan in the next few days: to meet King Abdullah and Washington's Iraqi puppet Maliki. When the King of Jordan warns to THREE civil wars in the region next year, it is something that one doesn't ignore. Good for gold, and oil, bad for the USD at the very least.

Anonymous said...

A lot of real estate bulls have placed their hopes for a spring rebound on the expectation that interest rates will start to come down again. If the dollar continues to fall, as it did on Friday, the chances that the Fed would lower rates will continue to diminish. If the Fed is given a choice to save housing by lowering rates or saving the dollar by raising rates, it will pick the latter, always.

Richard said...

http://www.financia editorials/ conrad/2006/ 1122.html

"So in conclusion, the trade deficit is very serious, especially in the long term. It is part of the hollowing out of American production and wealth creation. As a consequence of borrowing to buy those foreign goods, we have sold off some of our future profits as we have to pay interest on Treasuries and dividends on stock holdings, with the result that the dollar will weaken. Foreigners have continued with the deadly embrace of extending more credit to us, so we appear wealthier than we are. But should they try to extricate themselves from their dollar holdings, the consequence will be a devaluing dollar. Even if we head toward a massive economic slowdown 1929-style, a serious deflation is unlikely because of the negative position of our trade deficit. A weakening dollar will be supportive to gold and precious metals in the long term."

Anonymous said...


Look at me now!

Anonymous said...

Any good foreclosure websites out there?


Eric said...

Housing is a market plain and simple just like other markets- just like there was overbullishness in some ares where there where there was a large amt of land waiting to be developed and many amateur undercapitalized "investors" and an unrealistic income/housing price ratio in working areas (ie phoenix fitted the bill on all of this), right now there is the opposite going on, over bearishness- the housing market is not going to simply fall apart in other areas- not everyplace has been like some areas of arizona, nevada, or florida- and of course even in those areas some properties are always over or even underpriced..

When the stock market was around 9000 everyone was overbearish saying it wont come back, now its at new highs

Many compare housing to the internet bust, there is a major difference, just before the internet bust everyone including grandma was thinking these stocks that never made any money would go up forever, now in housing everyone is saying it can never go up again, all the news articles are incredibly bearish, so in this regard it feels more like a bottom then a top (of course there are individually overpriced houses down the block in arizona etc, thats not what im talking about)

One example of the overbearishness is the statistic that all the media had hyped , median prices down about 10%- very few looked at the numbers in depth, actually the mix of properties sold over the last year was skewed more towards the south then the west and northeast bringing down the actuall median price deceivingly, in reality, no region as a whole was down that much, just brought this up as an example of dont believe the hype in any situation on face value..

Oh and not everyone in an arm or who owns there house is on there last dollar and will simply sell it 25% lower...not gonna happen..

I remember when oil prices were under 10$ a barrel , there was such bearishness in the oil futures market, similar to housing market now, food for thought.. there are many capitalized smart people that are very happy to be buying a plce to live now when it is more favorable to the buyer.. you must see through your own bias to see market reality, in my opinion right now , the market is overly bearish nationally and time will indicate that this wasnt such a bad time to buy an attractively priced home now (No im not talking about buying a 90% investor occupied condo on the outskirts of vegas- that would never be my first choice anyway, and has little to dfo with buying a home in Chicago or austin or wherever...

Anonymous said...

chicago ?
the prices are still way ahead of wages and rents here. inventory is high, sales are slow and the building continues.
the spring sales will reveal the true state of the market in chicago.

kilobar said...

"Oh and not everyone in an arm or who owns there house is on there last dollar and will simply sell it 25% lower...not gonna happen.."

Foreclosues are making new highs and increasing in my state. Economists are expecting the trend to continue higher. When the ARMs reset, it will only accelerate the problem. The issue isn't whether people with ARMs are going to SELL at a price thats 25% below what they purchased it at. The issue is that many will be FORECLOSED.

Anonymous said...

BTW i am talking about the city of chicago not chicagoland. chicagoland stretches noth to wisconsin, south to I 80 and west to the fox river.
if you could see the numbers for just the city of chicago it would look bubbleishious.

Anonymous said...

Hi All,

As to Arms, yes some will foreclose of course, some people did get over there heads and thats true in any market- but anecdotes arent the issue, the fact is that I think i read that one in 1000 or so homes is in foreclosure (just from memory so correct me if im wrong) so even if that double snationally is that going to crash the market in Iowa or wherever? Just food for thought

And as for chicago , thats one area Im very familiar with having owned homes and investments there for over twenty years- my view is that in general (note is say in general) the market there was much more slow and steady then in nevada etc, there was GENERALLY no big bubble to begin with .. of course there were some overpriced cheaply built homes in bucktown etc sold to yups with no construction experience that were overpriced to begin with and wont go for 900,000 anymore... but on the other hand our gold coast condos have been going up at 5 or 6 % or so a year and continue to be flat to slightl higher even now.. it depends on the property location, all comes down to supply and demand, and these things never went up 25% a year like in las vegas, totally different situation ( and also rents pay the mortgage cost 100%) wheres the bublle there... on the other hand when you had cookie cutter condos selling in west humboldt park for the same price as astor street, well, they became more vulnerable, id certainly agree, but long term thgat area has well been a great palce to buy, we sold our multi unit for over 4 times we bought it over 12 years time.. of course we bought in a gentrifying area (ukraniian village) maintaned the property and had positive cash flow and very nice happy well treated tenats over the years, so again , it all comes down to supply/demand and proper property selection...

Even in florida I would guess there are individual proplerties that are a good deal now if you know where to llook and buy, that goes in any market..

Im only speaking from my 20 years plus experience, and am just trying to have an even keeled opinion about things... I d be the frist to agree with many here that Phoenix for example had been a risky place to buy over the last few years due to overspeculation by ubndercapitalized amateurs, a housing price / income ratio way out of whack to0- statistically phoenix was NOT a high income area...

Now contrast phoenix with Aspen.. housing is still booming, guess what, its all supply vs. wordwide demand , and most people there have NO mortgage at all, just trying to make the point that unemotionally you have to consider that all regional markets are not the same, and the supply demand picture and income /housing picture is totally different in ausitn then in phoenix or las vegas... and if you look at the inventory trends recently in areas outside some of the newsworthy markets like fl, az , or ca, it just isnt all doom and gloom, as much as some would hope for for whatever reason- I personally dont care either way, just calling it unemotionally as i see it ( and I was an institutionally trader for ten plus years so thats my particular trainining in how to look at markets) thanks for the thoughtful discussion,

Anonymous said...

Is your privacy important? Are you losing it?
Take our survey and let us know whether you’re concerned

Worth taking just to see the results.

Mammoth said...

So the news is that housing inventories are down. Does this really mean that housing has already hit bottom, as the MSM is promoting?

I do not think so, but being rational HP’ers, we should not jump to conclusions.

Does anybody here have the time to do some research and provide a chart of the average monthly rate of sellers putting their homes on the market?

Without the facts, one may assume that the declining inventory of home listings has more to do with the season - i.e. people are now deciding to wait until after the holidays before putting their home on the market - then with a market rebound. If this is indeed the case, then inventory will spike in the spring, possibly causing a housing panic.

Can anyone dig up this data?


Mammoth said...

Since September I have written some posts here about the new supervisor at work who just moved up here (Seattle area) from Florida. Bought a ~$400K home, and luckily managed to sell his old one back in Coral Gables.

Well, we got a rare November snow here yesterday & last night; less than 4” though, and this shmuck couldn’t even make it into work!

WTF - paying $400,000 for a home that you are stuck in every time it snows?

Everybody but this guy managed to make it in today - Ha ha ha LMAO!

eric said...

Hi Mammoth,

Its nice to hear someone saying "well see" etc to the housing market rather then the sky is falling all over the US forever cause housing turned in Fla., its refreshing to hear some reason and rationality

On that not check out it gives the actual week to week change of inventory and median price over many metro areas and its free w/o ads or anything

On that note , youll see that most of the areas are showing declining ivnetories now, this wasn the case about a month or so ago, its changed since then, the question is as you say the spring, some feel ivenetories vs. sales will go higher, im personally thinking more likely inventories will generally continue to shrink with the nice yield drop on the 10 yr note recently and the fact that many in areas other than florida etc will finally realize that prices probably are bottoming out where they are, of course I might be wrong but thats my educated guess..

I hope you find that site useful and one basis for reasoned thought...

kilobar said...

We need to look at the trend longer term. A short-term bump lower in inventories doesn't tell us anything until we get several consecutive months of data. Also, we don't know if those homes were simply taken off of the market because they weren't selling. We also don't know if any of the current sales are short-sales before they are about to go into foreclosure. IMO, distressed sales are important.

That's the problem with analyzing the RE market. The data is fairly vague and mostly is sourced from the MLS or NAR, which is biased.

eric said...


I generally agree with what you say, however, supply is supply and if people are taking homes off the market rather then sell them at a lower price that is still supply demand at work and is still shrinking supply

Also I agree that you have to be careful of bias with numbers, I dont particularly think that MLS is bias one way or another , simply a tracking system for the most part.. there was some bias however i think in the constant media headlines shouting median home prices off about 10% nationally , when most reporters hadnt the objectivity time or intelligence to dig into those numbers to see that most homes sales last year were skewed more to the south rather then the west or northeast , thus bringing down the median number (homes are typically cheaper in the south) on average when no individual region was down that much at all..

Finally , note the bearishness of builders in general, the fact that they are cutting back on projects nationally actually will reduce potential supply, and is therefore a support of housing prices when many people are saying this is doom and gloom as well...

Finally my main point all along is that you cant look at the fact that some investor occupied bldg in las vegas or some overbuilt area like phoenix where there is rampant specualtion and medicore income comopared to price is and indication that the sky is going to fall in any hometown usa, thats not likely..

I would agree that we must look at long term trends rationally, and remember that the prevailing crowd bias is usaually wrong in any market, so those who are looking at a recent one or two year horizon of housing without the benefit of long term experience or analysis to say that thats it for housing have no greater chance of being right in my opinion then those who say we are bottoming out now in general...

kilobar said...

I think this RE bubble is very different from the others in that the variable rate financing will have a much more significant impact on future prices. Supply and demand analysis just doesn't take into account the resetting ARMs and we've only seen the tip of the iceburg with those.

Considering most people (this is an assumption, but I think its accurate) bought with an ARM because they couldn't afford a fixed, then the adjusted ARM rate will be comparable with the then initial fixed rate they couldn't afford in the first place. Many people will easily be paying 20% to 50% more than they can afford when the rates adjust. Even if we assume they can afford it and stay afloat, new buyers are priced out since they can't afford to buy because the low ARM rates are no more.

I just don't think traditional supply and demand analysis is enough to predict this market. There has been an enormous amount of irresponsible and predatory lending around and it will inevitably affect market prices.

foxwoodlief said...

So do many HPers think the Pope's visit to Turkey will end badly? What do you think of this quote, "Members of the Lashkar-e-Toiba movement in Pakistan called for the pope to be killed unless he recognised that Islam was a religion of peace." Kind of contradictory when you call for someone to be killed because they think you are violent and you say you are for peace.

Still, was it the third Fatima prophecy that predicts a pope and his enterage will be killed by soldiers. Is this the catylst that will spark all the bad things predicted for 2007? Will this make the price of a house irelevant?

AnalysisGuy said...

I just released my report on Orange County
Daily Home Price Analysis

Professor said...

Folks, the economy is likely already in recession, although with hedonic productivity figures and dubious price deflators, we might never see an "official" statistical recession, i.e., two consecutive quarters of negative real growth. Instead, I will not be surprised if we see many "non-consecutive" real negative GDP quarters for years to come, as the post-bubble real GDP growth trend slows from 3.5% in '00 to 2.5% today and eventually to 2% and below by late decade and through the early to mid-'10s.

We have already seen a full 100 bps of slower growth since '00, and I expect that another 50 to 100 bps of slower growth is on the way for the foreseeable future, reducing overall real growth of the US economy by 4-5% to 9-10% over the next 8-9 years. This sounds benign but is more like a "slow-motion depression".

Roubini is one of a handful of economists who "gets it".

Gary Shilling is another.

eric said...


yes the arm issue is the million dollar question- of course many savvy and capitalized buyers have used arms too, the question is what is the price shock risk to overleveraged people and how many are there that will simply go belly up- my opinion is that it wont be as dramatic as you may think especially with fixed rates on the long end coming down, but who knows you may be right?

And to the next poster who mentions slower economic growth there are two sides to that, the positive side being generally lower interest rates...

Anonymous said...

chicago is a diverse market for sure and i think the gold coast is a no lose but the majority of chicagoans can no longer afford to purchase a home....or live & pay taxes in the one they allready have.

Anonymous said...

Keith and Borka,What do you think is the best investment now ? Gold Stocks ? or physical gold bars :)? Just plain ol' CD's ?

Anonymous said...

in nevada etc, there was GENERALLY no big bubble to begin with .. of course there were some overpriced cheaply built homes in bucktown etc sold to yups with no

*** Try looking in Eddison Park. What a joke $400,000 gets you 1,000 sq ft ranch and a one car garage! That's not overpriced?

thgat area has well been a great palce to buy, we sold our multi unit for over 4 times we bought it over 12 years time..

*** Right, no bubble in Chicago..................

eric said...


Youre making an assumption without all the facts- the reason we made that moneyon our multi unit was because we bought into what was considered a very dangerous area and maintained it for over 10 years (we even lived there ourselves the firs 6 years until things changed- we got paid for our RISK- again not all properties and or situations are equal- you took my sentences out of context- i aslo said our gold coast condos went up about 5% a year in the same post (ie less risk) and THATS what i meant when i said wheres the bubble ie 5% a year and rental income pays 100% of the mortgage cost is no bubble vs 25% a year in Phoenix with half being sold to investors where rents dont cover half the mortgage..
so please dont let your bias about a bust all over the place effect reasonable discussion thanks...

eric said...

PS I also mentioned that cookie cutter condos bought recently in west humboldt park recently for the same price as astor street WERE vulnerable, again you took my posting out of context which is why its difficult to have a reasonable discussion sometimes in a forum like this... cheers

Anonymous said...

none of them dogs worth more than 125,000 cash, some depression to splice giganticism and rapid growth genes into the food supply system and bacterium splices into the sewer water to methanolic gasolines productions, no problems at all, but for the fusion smelting common dirts into synthetic papers, plastics,glass, and composite bulding products,cloth, more stuff?? what dollar value?

Anonymous said...

forgot the methods of life span average increases must be thousands of them

Anonymous said...

eric said...
PS I also mentioned that cookie cutter condos bought recently in west humboldt park recently for

Again, come back to look around Edison Park, Mayfair, Norwood Park, Big Oaks. You'll see teh bubble.

When working clas houses in working class neighborhoods can no longer be bought by the working class, there is a serious problem.

I called on a ranch in Big Oaks 3 days ago. I knew it was going to be on the high side, maybe $450,000, maybe more. The agent told me the price $695,900! I busted out laughing. She started laughing too.

We are all happy you make some money. I just want a nice home in a nice hood without spending 50% of my salary. That is considered a bubble.

Anonymous said...

The Chicago Suntimes editorial section claims that the average Chicagoland SFR is $250,000. The Chicagoland area is Chicago-Napperville-Joliet and all in between. My work forces me to live in Chicago. Here is what I can get for $250,000.

Any Chi-towners tell them which one you want to raise kids in? Chi $250,

beebs said...

Reno is Supremo!

Check it:


Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

talk about putting the boot on the neck of the Chicago RE bubble!

Get ready to pay

If you own a home or property in Chicago, it's probably worth more -- maybe two or three times more -- than it was three years ago, according to the Cook County assessor. And you'll be taxed accordingly.

eric said...

Hi anonymous,

I hear what your saying about affordability- Im not trying to be heartless about that just looking at major cities as a whole to see if that means compared to elsewhere things will collapse from here, and i just wouldnt bet on that, as i think chicago is somewhere in the middle as to price/incomes if i recall..

you bring up an interesting point about where you can buy is less desirable.. thats exactly what we did 20 plus years ago we bought west of western ave cause thats what we could afford, so yes we made some money, but there was no silver spoon in my mouth- i fixed toilets and dealt with gangs for 10 or more years when most of my friends were renting downtown and spending there money on more expensive dinners then i could afford at the time

I dont know much about edison park etc, but we dont set prices supply and demand does, and theres often someone richer then you or me, look at nyc a condo averages over a million and people said it was unaffordable at 500k...

all im saying is that over time if at all possible, it is most likely statistically probable that your situation will be much better if you own then rent, thats always been the case, and i would hesitate to listen to johnny come lately housing doom and gloom people to tell you otherwise who dont have a long enough experience time frame to see the long term probabilities.. if you had bought in manhatten az or fl for 10 or 20 years youre net worth is fine, the same case will exist 10 years from now in chicago id bet..

good luck

ps i do agree with the taxation issue.. cook county is very wasteful and hosing us all with high taxes - that could definitely depress things if anything can..

Richard said...

Sun Nov 26, 5:32 AM ET

Western nations must prepare for a future
dominated by China and India,
whose rapid economic rise will soon fundamentally
alter the balance of
power, former World Bank chief James Wolfensohn
has warned.

Wealthy countries were failing to understand the
impact of the
invevitable growth of the two Asian powerhouses,
Wolfensohn said in the
2006 Wallace Wurth Memorial Lecture at the
University of New South Wales
at the weekend.

"It's a world that is going to be in the hands of
these countries which
we now call developing," said Australian-born
Wolfensohn, who held the
top job at the global development bank for a
decade until last year.

Hmmm said...

Housing median prices down avg 3.5% while sales unexpectedly rise in october..

This latest info doesnt lead me for one to think that housing collapses nationally from here, price is a lagging indicator while sales/ inventory is aleading indicator

bearishness/bullishness is always peaking at the top or bottom of a market, ie internet stocks can only rise (at the top of that market) or run for the hills housing will keep going down it cant ever do well again (now)

Lets see, alan greenspan has mentioned that he feels the worst is over for housing, the new fed chairman says today in a speech that he sees signs of stabilizing housing, builders are super bearish(actually cutting back on new projects which actually lowers new supply coming over the next couple of years) and supply in most areas is starting to come down (the country is bigger then ca or fl or nv) while the moving average of mortgage applications over the last month or so is heading up (both refi AND new home), and finally there is a constant stream of bad news touted about the coming collapse in housing from here ( but mostly not by those whove actually made money over many years and recessions in housing)...grandma is saying to stay away from housing now just as she was the last buyer of internet stocks a few years ago..

In my humble opinion, the smart play for housing nationwide to collapse has alredady mostly come and gone along with the play of rising interest rates ( futures actually predict a 70% or so chance for a fed rate cut in MArch, and the 10 year has gone down well over 1/2 percent in yield recently with unemployment near lows)

So why should we all panic about housing in general ( with the exception of those who made the risky move to but into non revenue generating investor owned areas at the top of the market in scottsdale or las vegas or wherever)

Im sure many here will point to the anecdotes of those who bought places they couldnt afford with teaser arms etc, yes there are people like that but they truly are a significant minority of homeowners out ther (excluding california etc which often goes boom /bust) so if one in 500 homes goes into foreclosure nationally how will that collapse thw whole market , dont see it ...

Anonymous said...

Was this one posted from the NYT?

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Jihadists Attack Vatican Web Site

'Electronic Jihad' Declared in Cyberattack on Vatican

Andrea Kirk Assaf reports this story exclusively for

As thousands of Turks took to the streets to protest the ongoing visit of Pope Benedict XVI to their country, the Church was already dealing with another threat from angry Muslims – a cyberattack on the Vatican Web site.

An appeal to Jihadist hackers was sent out through Web forums linked to al-Qaida and was posted on two of the Web sites that publish messages from the terrorist organization.

"The leadership of the electronic Jihad has decided to undertake a grand attack against the official Vatican site following the insults by the Pope against our Prophet," the statement read in Arabic, referring to remarks the Pope made in a September 12 speech.

"With Allah's blessing, the attack will succeed thanks to the help of our brothers if we all attack simultaneously. We ask all our brothers to be present at the hour of the attack for a joint action, because they (Catholics) have struck our religion. They must be fought and deserve to be attacked and not only on their Internet site.”

Threats against the Vatican Web site and the Catholic Church in general began shortly after the Pope’s speech, in which he quoted a 14th century emperor’s description of Islam as a religion spread by the sword.


foobeca said...

The economy is crashing

Anonymous said...

I decided to play a joke. I called up the local C'''ex development that isn't selling.
I told them that my name was Juan Valdez with the best "Spanglish accent". Rick Ricardo would be proud. I told them I wanted to buy one of their places. The guy said great. I asked him if I could put 3 families in the place. He said that's up to you. He said it might be a little tight, and I told him I want to make triple bunk beds for my "family". Then, I told him that I could pay in cash if he wanted me to bring by a couple of duffle bags in $10 and $20's. He said "Can't you just take the money to the bank and get the escrow company a check?" I answered "Sure".
I then asked him if the other people buying were white. He said he couldn't talk about race due to the real estate rules. Then, I told him I liked big breasted white women, and I didn't care if they had fake "chit". He started to laugh, and told me I would be the hit at the community pool.
I closed by telling him that I would be stopping by later. He sounded happy, like he was finally going to make a sale. He told me he needed a cerified check for the deposit. I told him I could pay in cash, and he said it had to be a check.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Dear Spanglish Anon,
Greg Swan needs buyers.

Anonymous said...

Good evening boys... will you speak spanglish to me?

Anonymous said...

Pope...blah blah blah

Dollar ... blah blah blah

Real Estate ...blah blah blah

When will it ever end?

Anonymous said...


Asian stocks rebounded in morning trading Wednesday, led higher by Japan's Nikkei Average after surprising strong industrial output data spurred buying in blue chips such as Toyota Motor and Bridgestone Corp.

When will Bank of Japan raise Interest Rate?

Nikkei rebounds on stronger industrial data

Anonymous said...

Amaranth Claims Another Victim

A fund of hedge funds listed on the London Stock Exchange five years ago by hedge-fund giant Man Group PLC wants to shut down after recent losses tied to the collapse of U.S. hedge fund Amaranth Advisors and persistently poor liquidity in the shares.

Anonymous said...

you bring up an interesting point about where you can buy is less desirable.. thats exactly what we did 20 plus years ago we bought

*** OK, I know you didn't jsut say that! Do you have any idea how flat tarded the above statement is considering the current situation? So where is your current RE investments? Englewood? 20 years ago! Ok, and Lewis and Clark are vindicated also.

I dont know much about edison park etc, but we dont set prices supply and demand does, and theres often someone richer then you or me, look at nyc a condo averages over a million and people said it was unaffordable at 500k...

*** Well, the rich must not want a 900 sq ft ranch for $399,900 any more cause they are just sitting there.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...
Pope...blah blah blah

Dollar ... blah blah blah

Real Estate ...blah blah blah

When will it ever end?

Wednesday, November 29, 2006 3:08:51 AM

Soo, very soon.

Anonymous said...

Have you over-improved your home?
By Shelly K. Schwartz •

"A lot of people who over-improved did a cash-out refinancing when rates were at a low, expecting housing prices to continue going up and up," says Sal Alfano, editorial director for Remodeling Magazine in Washington. "But in some places, like the Midwest, prices have already stopped climbing."

With an average kitchen remodel alone costing $44,000, it's easier than you might think to turn the cost-versus-value equation on its head.

bush said...

Kind of goofy if you ask me, do you really think this way?

Look at my signature.

Anonymous said...

Oh I had an experience i'll never forget on Thanksgiving evening.
At an after dinner party I was seated next to a Mayor who was a former Congressman.
I looked him straight in the eye and asked if he knew how the average American detested the likes of him and his Ilk!

He seemed to understand! :)

Anonymous said...

Home sellers here holding out for right price

November 29, 2006
Are Chicagoans just stubborn or is the housing market different here?
Nationwide, the median price of existing homes sold in October fell 3.5 percent compared with October 2005, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday. It was the biggest year-over-year price decline on record for an asset that many Americans use as a gauge of their financial well-being.

In the Chicago area, however, the median price grew 0.3 percent from a year ago.

"You can't loose in the Chicago real estate market!"

"As long as it starts with '606', who cares how it ends!"

"Prices only go up."

"They're not making any more Chicago."

Anonymous said...


supply and demand set prices nationwide not you or me..

who said prices can only go up, unfortunately the market doesnt care whether you can afford a home in chicago or not, so long as somebody else can and thinks if a fair deal for them..

prices can go up or down in any market, some people overprice underprice things at any time..

however, you are mistaken if you think that just because a house is to expensive for your tastes in a major city that things HAVE to get cheaper, they MAY but supply and demand will determine that... and the worst thing you can do is stay away from market anlysis and long term probabilities and instead listen to some bloggers or whatever tell you the sky is going to fall everywhere when it likely wont..

Existing home sales out yesterday- you dont see it in the headlines cause its not "sky is falling" news but look into the numbers - 102 metro areas showed gains and 45 declines, thats now supposedly the worst panicky run for the door market.. and its not gonna get much worse from here nationally (OF COURSE there are some overpriced condos in vegas or whatever what does that have to do with you finding a house you like outside of those type of areas)..

there are plenty of properties out there do your homework and you can find one that isnt overpriced and will not collapse,, and if you cant afford a house at all in the area you want of chicago, thats simply the price of housing where you are looking

If noone is coming down to your price point that says to me the sky isnt falling and that sellers would rather stay put then sell at the price you want and obviously arent as desperate to sell as most here think...

if the market is truly collapsing and so many people are in foreclosure and gonna give away there house, why cant you find one, or is it that your wrong about the underpinnings of the market..

If prices arent coming down to your level when everyone and grandma is touting the sky is falling buyers market, what makes you think youll reach your price next year or the year after..

well you probably wont listen to a word im saying and have some nasty comment refering to this post.. you just dont know who your real friends are, its not the whiners who say the sky is falling everywhere so dont buy a house now or in the future... the friend is the one who asks you to look at the actuall statistics like the average net worth of owners vs renters over time and who is more likely to have a little nest egg for retirement education or emergency..and who is happier to not having to worry about being kicked out by a landlord

Its your choice, the market will go on with or without you, and unfortunately were in a free market economy so if your not in a career that will enable you to buy what you want you either have to change that or move elsewhere or pray that the sky will continue to fall so that your neighbors loss is your gain (wouldnt count on that as the most likely outcome though) -

dont count on the govt coming through for you , dont think people who sit around and complain are gona get you to where you want to go, you gotta go reach your goals through your own planning and persistence ( and odds are that if your smart enough to post all this info, your smart enough to achieve a fairly priced home and whatever else you want if you put your mind to it) go ahead ridicule this post, but thats the mind set of a succesful home buyer , entrepeneur or athlete and if you think its foolish thats your issue.. pick the mindset and the result will follow..

Renting4less said...

The REAL point to all of this is that people should have bought a home that they COULD afford with a term in which they could make some serious headway against the principal (20 years or less). With price fluctuations with a bear market, it wouldn't matter short term what happened with the market. Guess basic finance 101 isn't taught in schools anymore. Must be a political correct thing. Just wait for California/Phoenix uproar come next summer when reality sets in. It will be headlines. I know here in Kansas City that many local builders have walked into the bank with house keys in hand facing forclosure. Not to mention the houses in Johnson County that are being pulled off the market that are creating the appearance of the decreasing supply of homes. Reality - not happening (sales). Many in my neighborhood are hoping that spring will be promising to keep them from certain financial disaster.

Anonymous said...

would agree 100%- yes and ca and az did get out of hand as to income/house price and tons of amateur investors- my point 2 posts above this is that at the sane time what happens to some yahoo in az with no money or liquidity who bought 3 houses cause they are going up (at the time) isnt a determinant that the sky is falling on every house and market at this time..

for the average person not involved in the latest investor subdivision for 700 k in an area of desert i az where land is plentiful, this is actually a pretty good time to llok for your dream home at an often reasonable price- and there are plenty of markets where the current supply demand trends are not so scary at all particularly if you get a good deal in the right location.. again even now the existing sales #'s if you go to the raw data graphs (just released) show 102 areas had price gains vs 45 declines... hardly the doom and gloom youd get by listening to the sky is falling stories.. yes the sky is falling for some last to the party investors in az but not everywhere...

fusillade said...

I read an article recently where the Freddie Mac mouthpiece was bragging that Freddie held 4% reserves. What a crock! So then with $40 billion in reserve they can lend out a cool US $trillion? No small wonder this bubble won't die. This country is screwhoohooed!

Anonymous said...

i think reserves is after the money is lent out or sold- and 4% is way lower then foreclosure rate ( and the lossses on tose loans are less then 100% of course)- how bout some reasonable discussion instead of the country is scewed- maybe for you it is but is that everyone?

Anonymous said...

Anon, STFU, have you ever heard of fractional banking? Do you really think that all the money loaned out is real? They can loan out money they don't have plain and simple, like you. ;-)

Anonymous said...

yes ive heard of fractional banking-

but whats with the obscenitiess, especially when youre not as informed as you think...

when someone buys a home, its a little diferent.. the seller actually has to get PAID in full from the buyers loan to close- havent you ever seen a hud statement or been at a settelement or do you rent? No money no house- the lender then packages the loan most probably (unless its a protfolio loan) and sells it to fannie or freddie and then its most probably packaged into a mortgage backed security that other investors buy into

In banking, they only keep some in reserves as most dont withdraw their savings accts etc at once and they use the actual cash if they do portfolio loans at 100% on those loans-

so dont imply anyone else is a moron until you look in the mirror-

if i sell my house to you i dont receive 4% of the proceeds. i get 100% i can assure you ...

and you may be surprised among the two of us who actually has the money and net worth as you say, rather then listening to housing panic, ive been investing since probably before you were born in housing and otherwise (and will continue to do so while most on boards like these fall behind and get jealous or resentful later)

have a nice day

Anonymous said...

All I know is that if I have $10k on deposit at the bank they can then loan me 100k. Where did the other 90k come from? From right up their a44, that's where. If the money doesn't get paid back then the money supply just grew by tenfold. That sucks. What's worse is that when the lenders finish collecting their fees the dad gum treasury will print more money to cover their losses. It would have been cheaper for everyone concerned if the farg warkin gubbermint had just give them the scum sucking money in the first place. Now pi$$ OFF!!

Anonymous said...

ok, get some help with your anger problem though (and maybe a class in finance wu=hile your at it), hopefully a better attitude will get you better results in life..

dont worry no more posts from me, unless your anger problem means you cant help yourself from being rude and vulgar again one more time, lets see

Anonymous said...

hey the bank paid the seller in full, you now owe the bank back or youll foreclose- if thats the level of experience for all the bublistas thats not saying much, think ill buy another property now...

Anonymous said...

there are plenty of properties out there do your homework and you can find one that isnt overpriced and will not collapse,, and if you cant afford a house at all in the area you want of chicago, thats simply the price of housing where you are looking

*** So, it's the blame the victim argument. Well, people of your caliber USED to be able to own a home here, but not anymore.

In my field, my salary has risen 5-10% during the housing bubble, minus the increased health ins burden my employer has placed on us. But the houses we have traditionally owned have increased in price 50%+. But it's my fault that I'm not rich enough. Or stupid enough to spend 50% of my take home.

So, FU kid live in the ghetto is your response! Working class slobs need not apply.

Anonymous said...

Okay anon, let's put it this way. You are a sack of $h6t worth only $7.35 in rendered down chemicals. Now I intend to use you for collateral on a million dollar loan. I get the money and default on the loan. Now the bank is left with a sack of $h^t and I have a million dollars. Where did that million dollars come from? Why out of the banks a44, of course! So from this example we can see that money is $h^t, and you are a sack. The end.

Hard assets said...

The U.S. economy is in free fall. Just look at the economic indicators housing, durable goods, the dollar, sales, and consumer and government spending.
Remember it's not the fall that kills you! It's when you hit the ground. I hear the 180 mile per hour winds rushing past my ears. Do you?
Crash! Burn! Dead!

Anonymous said...

This is great! An interview with a reporter in Boston.. good insight on the spin from newspapers..

SoldAtTheTop: Given that (1) Inflation adjusted median single family home price has been below 2004 median price since April and that August and Sept actually sent prices below the median set in 2003. (2) October has shown the lowest volume of sales any October since 1994. (3) Massachusetts is now poised for the greatest yearly sales drop of single family homes in at least the 17 years that sales have been charted. How are you able to responsibly report that there are "signs of market stabilization"?

Kimberly_Blanton: That's a great question. Frankly, an editor threw that in & I'm not sure why. It's too early to say for sure what will happen. We can only look at the numbers and see which direction they're going. As I quoted Sue Hawkes saying - and she's accurate - the sales declines and price declines were smaller. That doesn't mean we're out of the woods and there could be more trouble ahead. However, the economy is good. Thanks for your input.

Anonymous said...

Sharpest plunge for HK stocks since 9/11.

A weak dollar prompted many investors to switch their focus from the yuan - which has appreciated sharply in the past three months - to other currencies, said Kent Yau Ho-yin, deputy head of research at Core Pacific Yamaichi International.

Instead of accumulating more mainland H shares, likely to benefit from a stronger yuan, investors switched some of their funds into the currency market to make quick returns.

"The central government intended to keep the pace of yuan appreciation at just 3 percent a year. People just don't want to wait. They can easily get a 2percent return a day playing with the euro," said Yau.

Anonymous said...

The perils of yuan parity

Analysts say this may hurt Hong Kong residents' desire to spend across the border.

Ahead of US Treasury Secretary Henry M Paulson's visit to Beijing, during which he is expected to renew pressure on the Chinese government for greater flexibility of the exchange rate, the yuan has begun a new round of appreciation.

The yuan set a record high on November 9, when the central parity rate hit 7.8697 to the US dollar to break the 7.87 mark; on November 23, when it was 7.8596 and broke the 7.86 mark; and on November 27, when it was 7.8402 and broke the 7.85 mark.

And on Wednesday, the value of the yuan hit a new high, with the central parity rate at 7.8394, breaking the 7.84 mark. As the value of Hong Kong dollar is kept around HK$7.8 to US$1, the yuan and the Hong Kong currency are now of almost the same value.

So far, the yuan's value has risen by 5.32% since July 21, 2005, when the Chinese government launched reform of the foreign-exchange regime to allow the yuan to float against the US dollar within a daily 0.3% band from the official central parity rate.

The exchange rate was set at about 8.28 yuan per US dollar when the reform was launched. And the expectation is that the yuan will continue to appreciate steadily to become more valuable than the Hong Kong dollar.

Anonymous said...

Am I living in BIZZARRO world?

One day spending, prices, sales, oil, gas down for October and the very next day they say the complete opposite- WTF!!!!!

kidswithguns said...

9/11 and the coming collapse of America's Real Estate market

You might ask, what does 9/11 have to do with the current real estate crisis?

Billions Made

Anonymous said...

Forex Strategy Testing Results
[url=]managed ira forex account[/url]
[url=]indian forex rate[/url]
[url=]forex forum trader[/url]
[url=]new england forex seminar[/url]
[url=]broker broker forex forex forex forex forex master online trading trading[/url]
[url=]forex hedging in market[/url]
[url=]pair trade forex[/url]
[url=]add forex link trading[/url]
[url=]forex online system trading[/url]
[url=]9 99 forex trade[/url]
[url=]broker forex uk[/url]
[url=]forex invest option stock[/url]
[url=]course course course course forex forex forex forex forex master trading trading training[/url]
[url=]automated forex trading software[/url]
[url=]forex maker market retail trading[/url]
[url=]forex broker hawaii[/url]
[url=]forex trading system forex trading[/url]
url=]chart forex java[/url]
[url=]forex strategy trading tutorial[/url]
[url=]china exchange forex parity rate[/url]
[url=]autotrading forex signal[/url]
[url=]day forex trading training[/url]
[url=]best forex trading platform[/url] managed ira forex account indian forex rate forex forum trader new england forex seminar broker broker forex forex forex forex forex master online trading trading forex hedging in market pair trade forex add forex link trading forex online system trading 9 99 forex trade broker forex uk forex invest option stock course course course course forex forex forex forex forex master trading trading training automated forex trading software forex maker market retail trading forex broker hawaii forex trading system forex trading
[url= chart forex java forex strategy trading tutorial china exchange forex parity rate autotrading forex signal day forex trading training best forex trading platform

geronimo said...

“You have certainly heard the sad stories of the Guantanamo and Abu-Ghraib prisons. The US administration attempts to justify them through its proclaimed "war on terror." But every one knows that such behavior, in fact, offends global public opinion, exacerbates resentment and thereby spreads terrorism, and tarnishes the US image and its credibility among nations.

“The US administration's illegal and immoral behavior is not even confined to outside its borders. You are witnessing daily that under the pretext of "the war on terror," civil liberties in the United States are being increasingly curtailed. Even the privacy of individuals is fast losing its meaning. Judicial due process and fundamental rights are trampled upon. Private phones are tapped, suspects are arbitrarily arrested, sometimes beaten in the streets, or even shot to death.

I have no doubt that the American people do not approve of this behavior and indeed deplore it.”
Iranian President Ahmadinejad's letter to the American people

Anonymous said...

In my field, my salary has risen 5-10% during the housing bubble, minus the increased health ins burden my employer has placed on us. But the houses we have traditionally owned have increased in price 50%+. But it's my fault that I'm not rich enough. Or stupid enough to spend 50% of my take home.

That's just the way it goes sometimes, sorry. You might have to strech to make those payments, but atleast you won't be throwing your money away renting.

Anonymous said...


CNBC's Jane Wells just did a feature story on Casey Serin: yes THE Casey Serin.

Coming up later on will be another story by Jane Wells on foreclosure auctions held at courthouse steps.

*****END FLASH*****

So, now that CNBC has found Casey and foreclosure auctions, the time to buy has arrived, right?

Anonymous said...

Gee.....what up with gold?

Anonymous said...

good point-

many here dont realize there is a cost of NOT buying a house, its called rent (unless you live with your parents)- and when comparing the cost of owning vs renting consider that if you own you can deduct mortgage interest cost and taxes, so owning could be cheaper

also theres the psycholigal comfort of knowing theres no landlord that can kick you out or come to inspect your home with short notice

theres also an avg 5% rent increase a year or so, that adds up, but if you lock in a fixed rate the payment stays the same (except for taxes) ov er the term, and you can bet that if the landlords taxes go up youll pay more anyway

and at the end of the 15 or 30 year term you own the place, no more mortgage while renters (maybe on fixed income) are still paying the landlord and the yearly rent increase -ouch)

finally, and i know this a dirty word around here , equity is almost certain to build up in a home over the 15 or 30 years (ok you all are pretty skeptical about that, so lets say the other reasons hold true in any case)

oh and if you rent and have a cereit card the interest on that is not deductible, the interest on a equity line is generally deductable...

so are you all saying given this you cant see any home in your area that will put you in a better spot overall down the road then renting-

and do you want to be subject to the whim of a landlord seeling the property out from under you when your 50 60 or 70...

you may think you know housing reality, but youre not thinking strategically long term if you really think renting your whole life will put you in a better position, financially and psychologically,

and remember who says you have to buy some overpriced phoenix investor condo as your home, so dont use that argument, there are plenty of less risky and more stable places for the long haul if you are risk averse..

personally, i would guess the bigger risk is renting your whole life and being at someone elses mercy...

Anonymous said...

well youre certainly not going to ever buy a foreclosure or any real property ever so why is it relevant

when is there EVER a time to buy anything in your own mind

and you are living in a dreamworld if you think over time the owners (landlords) will generally have a lower net worth then their renters over time (except for maybe some johnny come lately guy in phoenix who didnt know the principle of liquidity valuation or positive cash flow anyway)- but the majority of owners are way better off long term in the vast majority of the country then you renters will be. if you dont think so please back it up with nationwide statistics to the contrary.. there are none

is there anyone out there willing to follow what generally more stable and succesful people have always done, buy a house, or do you want to rent along next to college kids in some rental housing at the end of your life, gee thats exciting....

Anonymous said...

if the market is truly collapsing and so many people are in foreclosure and gonna give away there house, why cant you find one, or is it that your wrong about the underpinnings of the market..

The star farthest from the black hole won't be the first to get sucked in.

Anonymous said...

so when WILL be the time to buy, im sure many here think that every family that owns a home has no money, cant make a payment, and will be glad to sell to you at 50% less in price cause you wish it so, and theres a tooth fairy too...

My guess is that the scardicats here will end up renting forever and be jealous and bitter renters at the end of there lives because every one else didnt go into bankruptcy like they secretly HOPED-

what you wish for isnt going to happen- not everyone is ome las vegas investor looking to dump some speculative condo at any price cause they didnt know what they were doing- most raise there familys and enjoy coming home to their own house

cant imagine most of you are family people, i cant see most in that position aaying to their wives/husbands, gee well never own a hous cause some 20 something bloggers on housing panic who dont have the confidence of long term owning anythin tells me i shouldnt as there are some overleveraged investors in florida-

if you dont buy , you pay the landlord, rents go up, there are no tax deductions, not even a CHANCE of equity build up, and you must leave whenever the owner sells and take your furniture with you.... at least if you pay down a mortgage there is no more mortgage payment (except for taxes with probably a seniors tax break at that point)

On the other hand rent NEVER goes awy, and if taxes go up the owner passes that on too (without even a seniors break)

Is that your advice , to rent forever, are you all so delusional or rooting for others demise that you think there is not one property in the country that is just so overvalued forever..

or is your investment strategy just follow any doom and gloom headlines on cnn, that didnt work in the stock market, it wont work in housing either...

Home sales numbers released a couple of days ago, median price down about 3.5%- AND f you look more closely 102 areas showed GAINS while only 45 showed declines, why isnt this discussed here, would it evaporate your hope of doom and gloom- you need to look at things more objectively, theres life outside of florida, arizpna, nevada, boston adn las vegas, really...

kilobar said...

Since when is this a renting v. owning arguement in the long-term? Owning wins out when the price to own makes sense. It isn't a rule that ignores the price you pay, the amount of your paycheck you use to support the mortgage, or what kind of leveraged derivative you used to buy the home.

I bought my house in 1996 for $145,000. It is now estimated to be worth $350,000. That's 141% gain in 10 years. When I see how much professional, college educated guys that are 10 years younger than me are making, I have to wonder how they could possibly support the mortgage to buy my house. They could rent it for literally 40 to 50% less than it would cost them to own. They would be foolish to buy my house for $350,000, and they won't. They will wait until prices fall toward the mean before they get into the market. There is too much downside risk right now.

BTW, in Ireland, they call mortgage payments "rent". Which it really is because you don't really own the house until the mortgage is paid off. The only difference is that a mortgage gives you the tax deduction (which is mostly offset by property taxes), some principal credited to your mortgage, but mainly PRICE EXPOSURE TO THE MARKET. If that price exposure is very risky, then why would anyone buy a home?

Anonymous said...

Hope ya'll held onto the US Dollar as Keith advised to HOLD CASH just before the enormous dollar collapse.

Gold and silver have popped back in the stupid faces of you ignorant hordes who said metals were at a bubble top, same as housing.


Anonymous said...

that was one of the most reasoned posts here... ( and im the one who was making the case or owning vs renting long term)

from the rent to price ration you are making the case that homes may be currently overvalued in your opinion in your neighborhood- that is actuall a reasoned argument rather then most sky is falling everywhere forever that you hear here...

what i would add is that your neighborhood may very well be overvalued and come down more MAY is the key word so that is reasonable for someone to wait and see there if they are risk averse

HOWEVER, many on this board generalize as to say housing in general is going to the tank, thats simply not true, even the recent release of home sales had median down 3.5% but 102 gainers vs 45 declines- the key is looking at your particular area, and i thing it is simply foolish for some to allude that the better choice long term for both net worth and happiness reasons is to rent at the whim of a landlord your whole life (especially considering annual rent increases and lack of stability, and lack of tax deductions etc)

thanks for the civil post..

PS you own a house yourself thats not such a bad thing as others here say is it, of course not...

Anonymous said...


the people who are smart enoug to buy a reasonably priced house in the right spot will be saying the same thing to others ( ie my house went up from 200,000 to 350,000 in 10 or 15 years just like happened to yourself), as wages tend to go up over time as they always have, and therefore the same house will be just or more affordable based on wages at 300,000 in 15 years as it is at 200000 now- any other arguments are mostly based on hopes and wishes regarding wages collapsing etc and not statistical probabilities

Rdub9000 said...

I've been a visitor to this blog for quite awhile.
Figured you all might get a kick out of this song I came up with yesterday, much influenced by our current economical situation.

It is called "Water Breaks". Since My wife and I are having a baby and are waiting out the bubble...

You can download the song off my myspace site. Let me know what you think. Hopefully you don't have to sign up for an account to have a listen. It is VERY raw, as I don't have much time to do professional recording.

Here is the link.

What will become of our future?
Our actions emerge once their devised.
When will the threads of our sutures?
Be tied around our reprise.

What path will our lives take
Once the water breaks?
Dreams of embroidery,
For our new baby.

Will I be a good Dad?
Calm my temper when I get mad?
Questions with the answers,
That the years will decide.

To my dear wife, please have some patience.
The days and months soon will pass.
Please humor my clairvoyance.
Our life without a home will soon be recast.

What path will our lives take
Once the water breaks?
Dreams of embroidery,
For our new baby.

Will I be a good Dad?
Calm my temper when I get mad?
Questions with the answers,
That the years will decide.

Seek not the bondage of a mortgage
That in years we will despise.
Settle not for a home that you’ll hate eventually.
Impatience is the devil in disguise.

Slaves of the lifestyle,
Debt grows the whole while.
How much is it worth,
for granite over tile?

With long hours of driving,
It’s our loved ones we’ll deprive
Not of our money,
But of our time.

Undervalued at our jobs.
Find ourselves wasting precious hours.
The challenges are gone, seconds slow to a crawl.
The active mind of youth is fading fast.

Slaves of the lifestyle,
Debt grows the whole while.
How much is it worth,
for granite over tile?

With long hours of driving,
It’s our loved ones we’ll be depriving.
Not of our money,
But of our time.

The value of the dollar, is declining…
I sure don’t see our wages rising.
Baby Boomers ain’t retiring.
Dreams of filot mignon turn to fries.

Slaves of the lifestyle,
Debt grows the whole while.
How much is it worth,
for granite over tile?

With long hours of driving,
It’s our loved ones we’ll be depriving.
Not of our money,
But of our time.

Rdub 11-30-2006

kilobar said...

All hail the anon-spammer.

fasbird said...

Inventory down? Not likely, not for some time to come. Listings may well be down for any number of reasons, but inventory rests first with new construction and much of that is still in final stage. The builders that could or would not read the numbers 6-12 months ago must finish their buildouts and must try to sell, or go find other work. Even if they sell an in-process sub, nothing changes. The final bucks are only, only in sales.

New home inventory is also the big blocker for sales of existing home in most cases. Certainly what we are seeing in most of the West. Builders can cut their profit margins to near (or below)zero as they spend to boost sales and still count it as a success if they sell and flee. Their panic level is way over most private sellers because it often comes to sell or die. We should be seeing the numbers for new home inventory began to level out 3Q. Just don't forget this 500 lb fella when you count the totals.

Anonymous said...

yes i agree, the fact that the builders are bearish, getting out where they can and cutting down on new projects will ultimately lessen the over supply problem hopefully- if its fair to say that builder over bullishness with new projects led to a "bubble" its also fair to say that their current cutback of new projects (ie down 18% or so i think i read) ultimately help return things to more in balnce situation

Anonymous said...

Quick, plunge team to the rescue! A little after 2:30 P.M. someone bought a ton of stock and let the stock market make a great rebound.
Those dollar printing presses are smoking.

Dan said...

Sarasota-Bradenton (FL) prices down 18% in October 2006, compared to October 2005 (median prices of $277,900 and $340,700 respectively).
One month ago reported (October 26)that, in the local area, there are 11,511 residences available + 4067 condominiums(on the market); apparently, these are the ones in MLS only. MLS statistics indicate the above numbers add up to a 98-week supply of homes and a 141-week supply of condos.

On October 27, it was reported that the median price in September 2006 was $290,000. In a single month the median price dropped by about $12,000 (290,000-277,900).

Between Sept. 2005 and October 2006, the median price dropped from $343,000 to $277,900.
The above prices do not reflect the "incentives".
On November 29, 2006 ("Manatee's home prices, sales tumble")quotes a real estate agent who "recently helped a client close on a new home that came to about half of the listing price due to the number of incentives the builder was offering."

The prices are really collapsing, and the price decline is accelerating. In the article published on Nov. 29, mentions a guy who is now trying to sell 8 (EIGHT) houses.

Anonymous said...

the whole country knows that florida market is very weak- but does this have anything to do with most areas?

Last housing number statistics 2 days ago - median down 3.5% 145 areas GAINED in value while only 45 declined- obviously florida is one of the big losers, but its not the whole picture, as much as people here would like it to be for whatever reason??

Anonymous said...

regarding Chicago RE:

Anonymous said...
Anonymous said...
The last time I checked, two years ago, there were only 35,000 total city employees. That's a drop in the bucket to a city of over 3 million. Residence is not a monetary issue. Check it out yourself.

Wednesday, November 29, 2006 8:41:07 PM

Drive around Area 3 some. Look at all the condos and 3 flats that used to be a sigle family residence (SFR).

Are you aware that new construction is taxed at the SALES price?

So you USED to have a SFR at 3733 N. Racine assessed and taxed at $240,000 (being generous) generating $3,840 a year in property taxes.

Now, there are 3 $300,000 (under stating) condos on the same lot. Each of the three bringing in $4,800 for a total of $14,400 for that one lot alone!

That's an increase of more than $10,000 a year for the same lot! Can you see who the new tax base is???

Thursday, November 30, 2006 4:34:43 PM

kilobar said...

Stop spamming the threads Greg.

Anonymous said...

This new platform sucks!

Mitack said...

Check this out- from the trenches:

rdub said...

What the F*ck is up with the long posts. Someone is hating on this blog, and it is not me.

Anonymous said...

Whoever the spammer/troll is sux rox. I think it's Richard/FMW myself. A-holes.

Richard said...

ANALYSIS-Iraq' s oil industry in grip of despair
Wed 29 Nov 2006 15:36:51 GMT

By Peg Mackey

LONDON, Nov 29 (Reuters) - The present state of Iraq's collapsing oil sector, its economic lifeline, is bleak and its future looks far worse, despairing officials say.

Another damaging oil attack this week, the prospect of British troops handing over the oil city of Basra and virtual civil war have all but crushed hope for Iraqi officials battling to keep exports flowing to world markets.

"One thing is sure. The worst is yet to come," an Iraqi oil industry source said by telephone from Baghdad.

Richard said...

Mexico's Pemex chief: Cantarell oil field output to drop 14 percent a year

The Associated Press
Published: November 22, 2006

MEXICO CITY: The chief executive of Mexico state oil monopoly Petroleos Mexicanos, or Pemex, said Wednesday the company expects production at its Cantarell oil field to decline by an average of 14 percent a year between 2007 and 2015.

Speaking to members of the Senate Energy Committee, Luis Ramirez Corzo said the average annual decline is equivalent to about 150,000 barrels a day.

The offshore Cantarell, Mexico's largest source of crude oil, began declining in 2005 from a record 2.13 million barrels a day in 2004.

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...







“You’d better quit burning that candle at both ends!”

His wife, a nurse, agrees. “Get some rest, Doug!”

Perhaps it’s a good recommendation for all of us, every now and then. To take the time to allow our bodies, minds, and souls to rejuvenate… to become anew.

For now, it’s more than a recommendation to me, as I have no choice. But with the rest will come wellness… and in wellness I will once again take my turn at bat.

Meanwhile, please accept my thanks for extending me the honor.


Friday, December 01, 2006 2:09:25 PM

Hard assets said...

Get out of U.S. stocks now. Go to cash, gold, silver, or bonds!

foxwoodlief said...

Was re-studying the Great Depression and came across an interesting article that gave a timeline of events during the 20s and it said their housing market came to a major slowdown and then the stock market rose 40% the next year and then the collapse of 1929. Part of the reason for the collapse was Great Britain and their attempts to maintain the pound at artificial levels and that they intentionally destroyed the US market to try and save their primacy. Could the rally we currently see in stocks rise 40% next year?

Scott A. Edwards said...

Congratulations, Readers...!!!

Check this out for FREE...

This opportunity says:

"Your Ad" Will Be Instantly Displayed on Thousands of Websites and Read By Over 10 Million People Per Week For FREE, and It Only Takes 60 Seconds To Get Started!

To find out more visit: home business opportunity site. It successfully exposes FREE information covering Traffic and home business opportunity related stuff.