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November 02, 2006
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A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
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52 comments:
i got my mountain house freeze dried goods. do you?
HAHA! he said "Blow"
not looking to good that's for sure...Got milk!
It does feel like the level of tension in the housing market is about to explode. What's going to cause the top to blow? The election? A rise in interest rates? January?
I like your new pic bork.
I sold my mountain house to a San Diego Flipper. All my freeze dried is in my mobile home.
Bring it on!!!!
I'm getting used to the feeling of impending doom. When it comes I'm afraid I'll be desensitized after all these years of propped false bubble pops. Still, it's nice to rake some earning on the bullion and miner stocks today...
the election is the dam holding back the waters
Which election? The one Next week or the one in two years.
I Like this new picture of yours Bork.
Where's a match, LOL!
Sing a song of Realtwhores a pocket full of rye,
Four and twenty flip houses baked into a pie.
When the pie was opened the profits began to sing,
Oh wasn't that a dainty dish set before the bling?
The banker was in his counting house counting out his money,
The appraiser was in the parlour eating bread and honey
The Realtor® was in the garden hanging out the clothes,
When down came a blackbird and pecked off her nose!
click the posting link
hell yea...
DNN.TV is already off the "air". Guess they can't fill their time with any good news.
http://housingarmageddon.blogspot.com/
Its the Oil, Stupid!
http://tinyurl.com/u4tju
"If they control oil resources, then they pull oil off the market in order to run the price up, and they will do so unless we abandon Israel, for example, or unless we abandon allies. " --Bush on the Middle East.
Masssive pre-election tension building!
Bring on the impeachment!
Gold prices have already started to blow up!!!
http://tinyurl.com/un4qt
http://www.kunstler.com/
The Daily Grunt (if I have anything to say )
November 2
I had to make a trip out to the local asteroid belt of big box retail because our cell phone bit the dust and the local Verizon office is located at the mall there (along with the local motor vehicle bureau office, which moved from downtown last year).
The Wilton (NY) mall is a sad place these days. Besides Verizon, Sprint, and the DMV, there are half a dozen sneaker shops and as many hair salons. The remaining slots are let out to increasingly marginal purveyors of crap like Thomas Kinkade calendars, wigs, and S & M party gear. The concourse was ominously empty of shoppers.
I conclude that heartland middle America is reaching near-total retail exhaustion. And not a moment too soon, since the same group of people are now underwater in their personal finances. Their fear and anger has yet to become politicized. When it does, watch out.
silver it is brother :) still tho, was doing a little homework today..and cant for the life of me figure why my credit scores are so low..I owe nothing and all paid in full...anyone have a back ground in this field..sheesh!
I'm warming myself up again with the volcano pic.
borka - go get a credit card and keep $100 on it at all times, pay the minimum payment
your score will go through the roof!
Watch and Learn,
Check out Barry Ritholz's big picture blog. He has bean posting some interesting stuff on it lately. By his reckoning we are in bad shape economically and my interpretation of his latest is that the US is on the verge or may have passed into recession .
is that true kieth? I'm around 800 but would have thought we were higher due to no debt and a fat bank account with cc bills paid in full every month.
your credit rating is based on you having credit and making regular payments. so if you want more debt, have some.
I have no debt and pay my card every month so figure my credit sucks too. but que sera sera - i don't want or need any credit, so F 'em.
you can have very little debt and still have a high credit score. as someone in the industry i can tell you that credit scores are a recent development and relied upon way too much. it is a development that came about that made it all the more easy to shift jobs from lending professionals to salesmen and saleswomen (IMHO). Keep very little on your revolving balances, pay on time ALWAYS (this is key because too often people give themselves some horsesh*t excuse about why they were a little bit late on one month or another) again, pay on time always and without fail, let nothing go to collection agencies or public record (suit or garnishment, et.), keep your installment debt limited-paid on time or paid in full early, do not max out a credit card, don't apply for every card under the sun no matter what freebies the store offers in return, keep the ratio of your revolving debts low compared to the credit limits, don't apply to every tom dick and harry company becase each one puts an inquiry on your report because it makes you look like you are getting in over your head to the next guy looking at your report - like you've got a gambling or drug or hooker addiction to fund - but then again, maybe you do and if that's the case well have fun on someone else's dime! :>)
Smug Bastard
Are things going to blow? Lets see, no hurricanes or major earthquakes this year, no major volcanic eruptions, last year they said this year was the year (just like bubbles).
Last night I was reading the NY Times and the article was on the dollar and how some big wig said all the fundamentals as for a major devaluation and he has been hedging his beliefs and lost 1 million doing so and ended up saying, "I thought the signs where there, I believe my view to be scientific and correct but you what? I may have missed something and have to end up saying I don't know anymore." I think that true with anything in life. As old Ben said, "The older I get the more I realize how little I know." Youth is always so sure of themselves and their views. Guess that is why most radicals are under 40.
Now the Fed says productivity increases are zero and wages rising at 5.3% and that the Fed may have to raise rates. Hmmmm, interesting on how productivity was rising at large clips for the past ten years and no wage gain or share of that productivity to the workers but now it is an issue? They want to scare American workers into submission (like the arguments about unions and increasing the minimum wage which is at the lowest value since 1951). Give us a break. Time to share the wealth with Americans so they can afford thos $300,000 homes.
Borkafatty - if you don't carry a balance now and then, that doesn't count as activity on that card. Maybe thats the problem.
Strangely enough, I never saw the mortgage on the credit report. I wonder what gives with that? I don't know how much it mattered.
The first casualty of war is the truth. It was all lies to get things done and if you stuck to your lies they told you you were doing a good job. Powell started to talk too much so he had to resign.
It is only a matter of time before the housing prices bottom out. The problem was housing prices were going up more than 20 percent a year in some areas and wages were not rising faster than 10.
The government spending hundreds of billions of dollars to sell Iraqi oil back to us at market prices and give the proceeds back to the Iraqis. Taxing the US to pay for construction projects in Iraq because the Iraqis do not like to pay taxes. Then they called it democracy after Bush got fewer votes than Gore and won.
Yes, I have the feeling it's all about to blow. But I've had that feeling for the last 3 years. I called this one way too early and now my credibility, to myself, is shot. I'm gunshy to call what seems so obvious. I mean, the data all points in one direction and it's so obvious to me when I see Lereah or the CNBC shills that they are lying to me. But why hasn't it happened already?
I guess that's the thing about manias, since they are large-scale mass psychological phenomena, it's easy to tell when they *should* burst, but impossible to tell when they will. Their very existence is illogical so you can't expect their dissipation to behave with any logic either.
The three rules of bubbles
1) They go on much longer than anyone thinks they will.
2) No one wants to admit they got screwed and bought at the top.
3)Once they blow they go dwn further than anyone thought was possible.
35 to 40% of Americans STILL APPROVE of Bush.
It is frigging AMAZING!
Close to half the country is effectively brain dead.
doesn't bode well for the future of America
The election is the dam holding back the waters.
++++++
I agree with you. There are scary times ahead.
'Only 50 years left' for sea fish
By Richard Black
Environment correspondent, BBC News website
There will be virtually nothing left to fish from the seas by the middle of the century if current trends continue, according to a major scientific study.
Stocks have collapsed in nearly one-third of sea fisheries, and the rate of decline is accelerating.
Writing in the journal Science, the international team of researchers says fishery decline is closely tied to a broader loss of marine biodiversity.
But a greater use of protected areas could safeguard existing stocks.
"The way we use the oceans is that we hope and assume there will always be another species to exploit after we've completely gone through the last one," said research leader Boris Worm, from Dalhousie University in Canada.
This century is the last century of wild seafood
Steve Palumbi
"What we're highlighting is there is a finite number of stocks; we have gone through one-third, and we are going to get through the rest," he told the BBC News website.
Steve Palumbi, from Stanford University in California, one of the other scientists on the project, added: "Unless we fundamentally change the way we manage all the ocean species together, as working ecosystems, then this century is the last century of wild seafood."
Last night I was reading the NY Times and the article was on the dollar and how some big wig said all the fundamentals as for a major devaluation and he has been hedging his beliefs and lost 1 million doing so and ended up saying, "I thought the signs where there, I believe my view to be scientific and correct but you what? I may have missed something and have to end up saying I don't know anymore."
+++++++++
Let's face it. Using hedge funds is just gambling. Trying to time the market almost always leads to tears. No wonder he got burned...
That picture is making me hot!
paul E Math said: "guess that's the thing about manias, since they are large-scale mass psychological phenomena, it's easy to tell when they *should* burst, but impossible to tell when they will. Their very existence is illogical so you can't expect their dissipation to behave with any logic either".
Totally true Paul. I felt we have been in a bubble since 1999, imagine that? Now, its finally going to burst... but when?
Like you said, with mass psychology, it's hard to predict. For sure, it will happen all at once.
I think the time is near...
I tried to short the market in late 1996 and got burned. If you think it's crazy, just step out if you hold investments that don't pay dividends or have a real track record.
It took almost 10 years before my gold got back to the nominal purchase price.
Speculate to have fun, not make money.
If you want to make money, start an investment newsletter and never record your results, but always tout something new like gold stocks, new oil discoveries, ethanol companies, internet (oops, that one's been beaten to death in the 90's) companies, silver stocks, cobalt or uranium companies or collectibles. Make a claim that "things are going to the moon" and that you're in the period just before the big run up! If you do this at least 5 times a decade, you'll be right once and then you can brag about it for decades afterwords. Your retirement is secure, because you cater to the gambling crowd, not real investors. Who wants to buy normal companies like Warren Buffett when you can buy lottery stocks and brag about your killing for the remainder of your life. "I remember back in 1968 this silver company went from 0.50 to 200 bucks in just three years..."
Fill up at least one third of the newsletter on politics, pseudo-intellectual philosphy or brag about your five houses all over the world.
Oh yeah, I forgot. Never mention that you have any kids or relatives otherwise some of your readers might want to make some money selling you your relatives' ears.
Thank you for the feed back I applied for a visa and was approved for $1000, so I think ill throw 30 dollars a month on gas...for real been 8 years since my hands have touched a credit card, No Bullsh/t sure debit card, but hardly use that also...like many here say cash is king..
And I agree with Keef,screw their credit I will buy a used truck cash.
yup still looking, those Urinal cakes in the back of the impala just dont look to good, but ill tell ya the inside of my car smells Lemony Fresh....HAHAH! bastards.
>> 35 to 40% of Americans STILL APPROVE of Bush. It is frigging AMAZING! Close to half the country is effectively brain dead.
The other half who think that voting in the Dems is going to make any difference is brain-dead as well.
Damn - when are all you Dems/Repubs going to realize that YOU'RE the problem!!!
The people who approve of Mr. Bush do
so because the U.S. is in pretty good
shape. The people who hate him HAVE
to make it sound like the world is
coming to an end, when it really
isn't.
[Source, FT, 11/2]
HEDGE FUND CERBERUS MOVING INTO MILITARY CONTRACTS. IAP
Worldwide Services, a subsidiary of Cerberus Capital Management,
is looking to grab a large piece of the action generated by the
stripping of Halliburton's hold over military logistics
contracts. Cerberus, now headed by John Snow, has spent hundreds
of thousands of dollars lobbying in the last year, trying to
position IAP favorably to become a major player in future
government contracts. IAP includes several former KBR (subsidiary
of Halliburton) officials. It has been bidding as part of a team
including Lockheed Martin and other well-known defense industry
corporations.
Borkafatty for President!!!
Is this on purpose or are they all sociopats;
www.iraq-war.ru
The Dollar's Full-System Meltdown: 'Phase of impact will begin in Nov. 2006’
01.11.2006 [16:30 ]
p. 66-67 An Inconvenient Truth, (Al Gore's book on global warming) shows a chart of CO2 concentration for the past 600,000 years. We are at twice the cyclical 100,000-year peaks. You know - when the ice caps melted? Projecting at current rate, in 45 years, it'll be tripled.
Not only is this past the danger point, apparently the Earth is now in positive-feedback mode, where the warming conditions accelerate themselves.
It is likely we are past the Hubbert Peak (oil).
See also note above re fisheries.
It is not "about to blow". As Peter Fonda said in Easy Rider, "we blew it." Housing bubble least of your worries, mates. Energy and eco-disaster will not be solved by changing presidents. I guess we'll get what we deserve.
I guess we'll get what we deserve.
-----------
I will be our children, not us that have to breath the thriple CO2 amounts.
Borkafatty for President!!!
--------------
If i were I would hire all you Hp'ers for my Congress, this would be my cabinet in no specific order:
Butch: Vice President
Keith : Secretary of the Treasury
LauraVella: Secretary of State
Richard: Department of Defense
Buzz Saw: Homeland Security
David in JAX:Secretary of Education
Metroplexual:Secretary of Labor
Forecloseme: Attorney General
FlyingMonkeyWarrior:Secretary of Transportation
panicearly:Secretary of the Interior
And the rest of the hack jobs go to the : Anonymous posters.
cheers!
Borka, you forgot one.
Honica Jewinski: Foreign relations
Oh $h!T, things REALLY ARE about to blow. The jews in that terroristic bandit state of israel have just given the U.S. six months to attack Iran.... Or THEY WILL DO IT THEMSELVES! Get ready for yet another jew war folks, should be kicking off before Christmas, maybe during Hanukkah?
Got kids draft age eligible? Kiss their asses goodbye..... and don't forget to thank the jews.
That crack is still so hot! And it's oozing liquid. God, that's hot.
Anonymous said...
Its the Oil, Stupid!
http://tinyurl.com/u4tju
"If they control oil resources, then they pull oil off the market in order to run the price up, and they will do so unless we abandon Israel, for example, or unless we abandon allies. " --Bush on the Middle East.
-------------------------
I wonder how much LESS oil we'd need if the money spent on Iraq was spent on renewables. $80 billion a year buys a lot of rooftop solar and wind turbines.
Paul E. Math said...
Yes, I have the feeling it's all about to blow. But I've had that feeling for the last 3 years. I called this one way too early and now my credibility, to myself, is shot. I'm gunshy to call what seems so obvious. I mean, the data all points in one direction and it's so obvious to me when I see Lereah or the CNBC shills that they are lying to me. But why hasn't it happened already?
I guess that's the thing about manias, since they are large-scale mass psychological phenomena, it's easy to tell when they *should* burst, but impossible to tell when they will. Their very existence is illogical so you can't expect their dissipation to behave with any logic either.
-----------------------------
Just think of it as extra time to batten down the hatches. I've been working on that for at least 2-3 years.
Anonymous said...
The three rules of bubbles
1) They go on much longer than anyone thinks they will.
2) No one wants to admit they got screwed and bought at the top.
3)Once they blow they go dwn further than anyone thought was possible.
----------------------
It's been said, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.
Anonymous said...
The people who approve of Mr. Bush do
so because the U.S. is in pretty good
shape. The people who hate him HAVE
to make it sound like the world is
coming to an end, when it really
isn't.
-----------------------
They THINK the US is in pretty good shape. In other words, they are totally F-ing clueless. The US is in pretty good shape in the same way that 5th century Rome was.
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