Nope, it's never different this time... Never. Ever. Sorry.
5% would be about 4 million homedebtors. At an average debt of say $200,000 each, that'd be about 1 Trillion in defaulted debt. China's foreign exchange surplus (that they'll be unwinding out of dollars) FYI just hit $1 Trillion by coincidence. Or not.
Hattip to the excellent Charles Hugh Smith blog for the chart
18 comments:
HUD homes and Resolution Trust II?
great friggin chart!
how the eff do you do it Keith!?!?!
oftwominds is such a great website. like HP its one of the ones i have been reading daily for a long time now. actually i usually start my day with oftwominds.
subprime mortgages should be less than $100,000 (~$50,000-$60,000), not $200,000.
The best part is that they'll lose their homes to me. Then I can rent them back just like I did in the 80s and 90s. I figure homeownership will decline about 8-9%. That seems like a lot but demographics, the rise of a mobile elderly, increased corporate ownership will add to the 4-5% due to people buying who shouldn't have.
Keith - it MAY be different this time - note at the top of the chart it says 10% of Americans might experience a recession/depression. . .we have a new 20/80 economy - 20% are doing Swell! (Note Barrons weekend articles about 5 million plus penthouses) and the 80% are living paycheck to paycheck. . .can we say Feudalism????. . .those of us who have no debt, and some investment capital are better off than those with huge salaries and huge debt. . .the lawyer with a million dollar mortgage and a leased car will be worse off than a civil servant who owes nothing and has some savings. . .this is a DEBT recession.
Wow, disaster aye? 5% loose their homes? That means 95% don't and keep paying the bills. If our economy collapses because 5% default....that is stretching it. It didn't collapse at the end of the 1980 meltdown, 1989 meltdown (and the 1979-82 was the worst and with interest rates up to 18%) the dotcom bust, the hedge fund busts, the derivitave market bust, I doubt that 5% (and I agree most of those will be below $200,000) will be a disaster except to those who loose their homes.
I want to meet borks my bitch, he sounds like a swell guy.
Give this PDF to all the clueless people you know -- it really teaches you the real deal about finance, debt, interest, etc.
http://debt.cpa-site.com/
I'm seroius -- print it out and give it to people. It's only 8 pages. Leave copies in the bathroom stalls :)
Imagine if enough people could read this -- the stock market would finally correct, people would pay off their debts, etc. It would be great!
Yeah Keif,
But here is the funny part. In the LA Times today it said that people believe we have hit bottom and are buying once again. I want to be a troll, people are just so stupid and easy to fool.
Remeber folks send your how to copulate instruction manual to
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And for an extra,extra good time folks call 1-800-borks-bitch's-mama
you know the old saying:
I may be old I may be gray, but Gums all the way.
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The damn money supply is growing at 10% a year. Keith and the rest of the alarmists on HP fail to appreciate that simple fact. There can be no crisis as long as the banks are loaning money with essentially no strings attached.
Now I'm sure all the smart folks here will tell me how I'm wrong and why the Fed will simply stop pumping out money.
http://tinyurl.com/kh74j
do the math, 200,000 x 4 million homedebtors does not = 1 Trillion; but i do not disagree with your basic theory.
250,000 * 4 million = 1 Trillion
2006 housing forecast for Oregon
you are very wrong Keith. this chart shows that the middle class is in decline (converging with lower class)
inflation is our friend so says the FED
I publily challenge you to dispute this
U.S. government sues former Cendant vice chairman Kirk Shelton and several members of his family on Tuesday for nearly $40 million in fraudulently transferred assets.
Shelton was convicted of fraud in January 2005 and sentenced to 10 years in prison for his role in a decade-long accounting scheme that inflated earnings and stock values of Cendant, a real estate and travel company, and its predecessor CUC International.
Former Cendant Chairman Walter Forbes was convicted last month for the scheme that -- when revealed in 1998 -- wiped $14 billion off Cendant's market value. It was one of a series of accounting scandals that shook the U.S. corporate world.
http://www.washingtonpost.
com/wp-dyn/content/
article/2006/11/14/
AR2006111400935.html
Countrywide says housing slump has a year to go
The slowdown of the U.S. housing market will last through 2007 as inventories are pared enough to prompt a change in consumer psychology, the chief executive officer of the nation's biggest mortgage lender said on Tuesday.
Mortgage lending has slowed as rising inventories in the housing market led to a "hard landing" for the industry after a decade of strong growth, Countrywide Financial Corp CEO Angelo Mozilo said at a Merrill Lynch & Co. conference in New York.
http://today.reuters.com/
news/articlenews.aspx?type=
businessNews&storyID=
2006-11-
14T180042Z_01_N14308069_RTR
UKOC_0_US-FINANCIAL-
COUNTRYWIDE.xml&WTmodLoc=
NewsArt-C2-NextArticle-1
keith you prick you keep that homos bullshit talk up for all to see and you delete mine..fuck you!
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