October 27, 2006

You think September's new home sales drop of 10% year-over-year was bad? Just wait.

Here's a chart of the US median new home price for the past five years (thanks to HP'er WB). A picture is worth a 1000 words, and this is the one the NAR and REIC don't want you to see...

Pop.

33 comments:

SMARTER THAN KEITH said...

Ha Ha- i just talked to a FB and they still don't know that prices are declining. They do know that their ARM's are killing them. What a shock it was they own 7 homes. OUCH

Anonymous said...

Welcom to 2004 pricing!!!!! Next stop: 2002!!!!!!!!!

"THIS TOWN NEEDS AN ENEMA."

Peace.

Anonymous said...

Silver (SLV) and gold (GLD) are starting to turn around - were off to the moon!!!!!!

keith said...

In April 2007 the year over year decline could be 25% (vs. the April 2006 peak number), and that's not even counting the rampant use of incentives

We could be looking at a 40% real price decline year over year in just a few months.

Now that, my friends, will be historic. And there is no REIC or Lereah spin that could hide the truth.

keith said...

we're already down 15.5% from the peak, or $40,000

wow.

SMARTER THAN KEITH said...

Wher is Foreclose You these days? He must be so busy he cant even bog with us!!!!

Mark in San Diego said...

$100,000 decline in one year. . .I looked at a unit in La Vita (see web site) December 2005 - a one bedroom / 1 bath priced at 499K. . .on the 17th floor - Today, the exact unit one floor higher with a great view is selling through Help U Sell for 399K!!!! These are the little anicdotes that don't make it into the MSN. . .http://www.sandiegodowntown.info/current.html

Anonymous said...

Now we know who is to blame for the decreasing housing prices:
http://tinyurl.com/ye96hh

Robert Coté said...

Are you sure that isn't a graph of the number of illegals sneaking over the border?

Robert Coté said...

Next stop: 2002

If by stop you mean; "head fake" or "dead cat bounce" maybe.

New Hampshire @ 29 said...

WOOOOO HOOOOO.... may the market allow me to move out of my parents house soon... i refuse to buy an overvalued $h!t box for huge $$$... well worth the wait! lets get back to the level.. and thanks Keith! Been reading this blog for a while now and you got it right!

Anonymous said...

new hamp 29- How to you get ready. You needto be saving and get redy for those FB Foreclosures.

Anonymous said...

"$100,000 decline in one year. . .I looked at a unit in La Vita (see web site) December 2005 - a one bedroom / 1 bath priced at 499K. . .on the 17th floor - Today, the exact unit one floor higher with a great view is selling through Help U Sell for 399K!!!! "

*** I bought two units in 2001 for $112K and $115K. $499K and $399K are way overpriced ***

Anonymous said...

" keith said...
we're already down 15.5% from the peak, or $40,000

wow. "

*** nothing to WOW about as it went up $300K and now down $40K.. the profit is still +$260K... please keep the bad news coming.. are we down $100K yet.. even then it is still up $200K ***

Disgorge! said...

I just hope this decline shows up in Australia and the UK as well. UK down only 3% I heard.

SMARTER THAN KEITH said...

Hey disgorge- Australia is alreadyin deep sh&&.UK son to follow.

Frocco said...

This chart shows the nasdaq bubble compared to the housing bubble. The housing bubble dwarfs the nasdaq!!!

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ta?s=KBH&t=my&l=off&z=l&q=l&p=&a=&c=%5EIXIC

Anonymous said...

It's a new paradigm, and everybody who doesn't buy, now, will be priced out forever. Anybody who does buy will be rewarded with a lifetime of riches, as their property will continue its 30% yearly price increase.

Renters, and anybody born in a future generation, will not be able to afford a $10,000,000 starter home in 15 years. They will live in tent cities, and Hondas.

This asset bubble is different than all of the others - it will never slow down, or pop. The gains are permanent.

-RE.Agent

Anonymous said...

HA HA AHAhAhAhAHAHAHAHAHAhAH
Tellher unempled ass tobelieve that now!!!!!!!

CentralScrutinizer said...

Great chart Keith, I'm no financial analyst but I believe that when a stocks' 50-day moving average crashes through the longer 200-day moving average, that's technical confirmation that it's toast. Notice the same thing here, only it's the 6 mo. MVAVG that has decisively fallen below the 12 mo.

It's dead, Jim ... the housing market that is.

Anonymous said...

Great site keith! You saved my ass!
And my marriage. Keep up the good work!

Anonymous said...

STEADYSTEADYSTEADY...HOOOOOOOOOOLD!

(I feeeeeeeeeeeel sick!)

DON'T SHOOT TILL YOU SEE THE WHITES OF THEIR EYES!!!

(But Cap'n, I'm scared, prices are falllllllllllllling!)

STEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAADYYYYY!!!!

(Gonna puuuuuuuuuuuuuuke....!)

CAP'N SEZ: FUNK PHOTYNINE IN ZE HOUUUUUUUUUSE...

Sleep all day, out all night
I know where you're goin'!
I don't think that's actin' right
You don't think it's showin'!
Jumpin' up, fallin' down
Don't misunderstand me!
You don't think that I know your plan
What you try'n'-a hand me?
Out all night, sleep all day
I know what you're doin'
If you're gonna act that way
I think there's trouble brewin'...

Anonymous said...

what's casey's big news???

Anonymous said...

that chart only goes back to 2002



show us a chart that goes back at least 20 years and is adjusted for inflation

WhiteTower said...

This chart is mesmerizing.

The entirety of two years of average price run-up wiped out, right back to September 2004.

It's like watching Wily Coyote fall off the cliff and down to the canyon floor below -- all you see is this little "poof" cloud of dust as he hits below.

All that "equity"... just poof.

Anonymous said...

If the MSM published that chart, there'd be trouble in River City

RJ said...

That chart is a glimpse into the future of the stock market after the November elections are over and the plunge protection team has finished its manipulations. HELOCs will no longer be able to fuel GDP which has just come in at a paltry 1.6%. Game over.

Anonymous said...

If the Dems win control of Congress when the stock market plummets, they'll get the blame.

Anonymous said...

From John Mauldin quoting Barry Ritholtz:

"Yesterday's increase in New Home Sales caught some economists by surprise. I look at those sorts of numbers suspiciously. Any time I want some insight into any particular data-point, I find it instructive to go to the actual government source's website, and simply click around. If you do this with a skeptical eye, you may learn some really interesting facts.

[snip]

"1. The reported increase in sales was 5.3 percent. The margin of error was ±15.6%. Therefore, the likely change in sales ranged from +20.9% to -10.3%. Since this range contains zero, "the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease."

More at http://www.safehaven.com/article-6181.htm

Anonymous said...

...

The price decline for new homes in September came while the sales pace picked up, rising by 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate 1.075 million homes.

It was the second consecutive increase in sales following three months of declines. But even with the improvement, sales activity is down 14.2 percent from a year ago.

Anonymous said...

RJ said...
That chart is a glimpse into the future of the stock market after the November elections are over and the plunge protection team has finished its manipulations. HELOCs will no longer be able to fuel GDP which has just come in at a paltry 1.6%. Game over.

Saturday, October 28, 2006 7:39:21 AM
-----------------

that why u'd better vote for those Repuglicans OR ELSE!!!!!

Anonymous said...

That 1.6% GDP growth has been revised downward to .9 % I believe.

It was reported today by one of the Bloomberg outlets.

Looks like Nouriel was right with his 1% (or lower?) prediction.

I heard that in the 1940's, mortgages were under 5 years. And in the 50's/60's they went to 15. Then 60's/70's to 30 years.

This increase in mortgage years has caused an enormous inflation of home prices.

I'm thinking we may be heading back to under 10 year mortgages for a time with a HUGE credit crunch on the horizon.

If this comes to pass, can you say "Cheap Houses"??!

So beware of dead cat bounces with this one. The bottom could be a VERY long way off.

autofx in Phx said...

If you can trust this data, the price has almost fallen to the trendline over the last 4 years or so.

Time to buy?

I still don't think so.