Here's a chart of the US median new home price for the past five years (thanks to HP'er WB). A picture is worth a 1000 words, and this is the one the NAR and REIC don't want you to see...
Pop.
October 27, 2006
You think September's new home sales drop of 10% year-over-year was bad? Just wait.
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26 comments:
Welcom to 2004 pricing!!!!! Next stop: 2002!!!!!!!!!
"THIS TOWN NEEDS AN ENEMA."
Peace.
Silver (SLV) and gold (GLD) are starting to turn around - were off to the moon!!!!!!
In April 2007 the year over year decline could be 25% (vs. the April 2006 peak number), and that's not even counting the rampant use of incentives
We could be looking at a 40% real price decline year over year in just a few months.
Now that, my friends, will be historic. And there is no REIC or Lereah spin that could hide the truth.
we're already down 15.5% from the peak, or $40,000
wow.
$100,000 decline in one year. . .I looked at a unit in La Vita (see web site) December 2005 - a one bedroom / 1 bath priced at 499K. . .on the 17th floor - Today, the exact unit one floor higher with a great view is selling through Help U Sell for 399K!!!! These are the little anicdotes that don't make it into the MSN. . .http://www.sandiegodowntown.info/current.html
Now we know who is to blame for the decreasing housing prices:
http://tinyurl.com/ye96hh
Are you sure that isn't a graph of the number of illegals sneaking over the border?
Next stop: 2002
If by stop you mean; "head fake" or "dead cat bounce" maybe.
WOOOOO HOOOOO.... may the market allow me to move out of my parents house soon... i refuse to buy an overvalued $h!t box for huge $$$... well worth the wait! lets get back to the level.. and thanks Keith! Been reading this blog for a while now and you got it right!
new hamp 29- How to you get ready. You needto be saving and get redy for those FB Foreclosures.
"$100,000 decline in one year. . .I looked at a unit in La Vita (see web site) December 2005 - a one bedroom / 1 bath priced at 499K. . .on the 17th floor - Today, the exact unit one floor higher with a great view is selling through Help U Sell for 399K!!!! "
*** I bought two units in 2001 for $112K and $115K. $499K and $399K are way overpriced ***
" keith said...
we're already down 15.5% from the peak, or $40,000
wow. "
*** nothing to WOW about as it went up $300K and now down $40K.. the profit is still +$260K... please keep the bad news coming.. are we down $100K yet.. even then it is still up $200K ***
It's a new paradigm, and everybody who doesn't buy, now, will be priced out forever. Anybody who does buy will be rewarded with a lifetime of riches, as their property will continue its 30% yearly price increase.
Renters, and anybody born in a future generation, will not be able to afford a $10,000,000 starter home in 15 years. They will live in tent cities, and Hondas.
This asset bubble is different than all of the others - it will never slow down, or pop. The gains are permanent.
-RE.Agent
HA HA AHAhAhAhAHAHAHAHAHAhAH
Tellher unempled ass tobelieve that now!!!!!!!
Great chart Keith, I'm no financial analyst but I believe that when a stocks' 50-day moving average crashes through the longer 200-day moving average, that's technical confirmation that it's toast. Notice the same thing here, only it's the 6 mo. MVAVG that has decisively fallen below the 12 mo.
It's dead, Jim ... the housing market that is.
Great site keith! You saved my ass!
And my marriage. Keep up the good work!
STEADYSTEADYSTEADY...HOOOOOOOOOOLD!
(I feeeeeeeeeeeel sick!)
DON'T SHOOT TILL YOU SEE THE WHITES OF THEIR EYES!!!
(But Cap'n, I'm scared, prices are falllllllllllllling!)
STEAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAADYYYYY!!!!
(Gonna puuuuuuuuuuuuuuke....!)
CAP'N SEZ: FUNK PHOTYNINE IN ZE HOUUUUUUUUUSE...
Sleep all day, out all night
I know where you're goin'!
I don't think that's actin' right
You don't think it's showin'!
Jumpin' up, fallin' down
Don't misunderstand me!
You don't think that I know your plan
What you try'n'-a hand me?
Out all night, sleep all day
I know what you're doin'
If you're gonna act that way
I think there's trouble brewin'...
what's casey's big news???
that chart only goes back to 2002
show us a chart that goes back at least 20 years and is adjusted for inflation
If the MSM published that chart, there'd be trouble in River City
That chart is a glimpse into the future of the stock market after the November elections are over and the plunge protection team has finished its manipulations. HELOCs will no longer be able to fuel GDP which has just come in at a paltry 1.6%. Game over.
If the Dems win control of Congress when the stock market plummets, they'll get the blame.
From John Mauldin quoting Barry Ritholtz:
"Yesterday's increase in New Home Sales caught some economists by surprise. I look at those sorts of numbers suspiciously. Any time I want some insight into any particular data-point, I find it instructive to go to the actual government source's website, and simply click around. If you do this with a skeptical eye, you may learn some really interesting facts.
[snip]
"1. The reported increase in sales was 5.3 percent. The margin of error was ±15.6%. Therefore, the likely change in sales ranged from +20.9% to -10.3%. Since this range contains zero, "the change is not statistically significant; that is, it is uncertain whether there was an increase or decrease."
More at http://www.safehaven.com/article-6181.htm
...
The price decline for new homes in September came while the sales pace picked up, rising by 5.3 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate 1.075 million homes.
It was the second consecutive increase in sales following three months of declines. But even with the improvement, sales activity is down 14.2 percent from a year ago.
RJ said...
That chart is a glimpse into the future of the stock market after the November elections are over and the plunge protection team has finished its manipulations. HELOCs will no longer be able to fuel GDP which has just come in at a paltry 1.6%. Game over.
Saturday, October 28, 2006 7:39:21 AM
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that why u'd better vote for those Repuglicans OR ELSE!!!!!
That 1.6% GDP growth has been revised downward to .9 % I believe.
It was reported today by one of the Bloomberg outlets.
Looks like Nouriel was right with his 1% (or lower?) prediction.
I heard that in the 1940's, mortgages were under 5 years. And in the 50's/60's they went to 15. Then 60's/70's to 30 years.
This increase in mortgage years has caused an enormous inflation of home prices.
I'm thinking we may be heading back to under 10 year mortgages for a time with a HUGE credit crunch on the horizon.
If this comes to pass, can you say "Cheap Houses"??!
So beware of dead cat bounces with this one. The bottom could be a VERY long way off.
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