99.9999% think he'll keep 'em where they are. I personally think he's paralyzed, and it's not his fault - it's Greenspan's mess.
Raise and debt dries up faster, housing keeps falling, and the markets crash.
Lower and he loses street cred, inflation roars, bond rates go up as do mortgage rates, and the markets crash.
Stay the same and housing continues its freefall, consumer spending and confidence plummet, and the markets crash.
Hmmm.. at least there is one thing consistent with all three scenarios...
October 23, 2006
What's Bernanke gonna do?
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1970s style stagflation
ooh oohooooo oohooh baby please don't go
- Ben Bernanke singalong from 1974
Got;
Fine gold
platinum jewelry
diamonds
and
precious gemstones
(:
Nothing, this is how the jewish end game works. If any of you castrated white males can manage to take you head out of the sand for a few minutes, you may want to take a look back through history, please take note that we are merely the latest in a long, long line of nations to fall to the jews.
kill himself?
Agreed!
David
Bubble Meter Blog
He will be out partying. Why not?
The glitch in the housing sector will be over (reaching bottom) soon, and the stock market is breaking its own record everyday. Right? :))
I wonder if all the ass kissing of "Easy Al" was worth it? I mean would anyone really want to be holding the big bag of shit (US Economy) when the bag starts really getting soggy. Its a testament to the quality of economics education in the US that "Helicopter Ben" campaigned for his position in history! Hey enjoy all that congressional face time while "Big Al, Your Easy Money Pal" is making $100,000 a speech on the lecture circuit!
Yakity black flim flam boom, foreigners flee from dollars doom. Raise the rate or fear collapse, housing fails but Dow Jones snaps. + ¼%
Hey doomsayers, take a look at the latest:
http://www.nowandfutures.com/key_stats.html
That's right, its to-the-moon-Alice time. M3 growth is over 10%, so there's your answer to "What's Bernanke gonna do?".
You are all fools if you think the Fed is going to sit by and watch economic collapse. Don't fight the Fed.
"Got;
Fine gold
platinum jewelry
diamonds
and
precious gemstones
(:"
Don't forget to invest in off chore commodities - Canadian tar sands could be a good bet.
Also - Federal now sells 00 9 pellet 12 ga. and slugs to teh public. These use to be sold only to LEO.
Nothing, this is how the jewish end game works. If any of you castrated white males can manage to take you head out of the sand for a few minutes, you may want to take a look back through history, please take note that we are merely the latest in a long, long line of nations to fall to the jews.
------------------
Well this castrated white male says chew my foreskin. If it is a history lesson in hate no thanks.
Bork
Just ignore the slime. And in the mean time, take heart in knowing that you're not infected by the same disease that is obviously eating away at that ones' rationality. Now, about Benny....What does he have to worry about? Most of us agree Uncle Al engineered this mess. If it all blows over, then Benny looks like a hero. If it all blows up, then Benny produces a few internal memos, maybe a transcript of a telephone call or two, throw in a couple of E-mails, and voila! It's all Al's fault. IMHO.
Anthony Chan, chief economist at J.P. Morgan Private Client Services, said he was 90% certain that the Fed would cut rates by next May.
He said the recent drop in energy prices would moderate inflation over the next eight months.
But Swanson of Wells Fargo said he sees sparse evidence of a dramatic slowdown in the economy, with the unemployment rate at the low level of 4.9%.
"It is very difficult to argue that this economy shows any signs of weakness," Swanson said. "Inventory-to-sales ratios are very low. Company cash flows are very strong," he said.
He said the Fed would remain on hold for most of 2007.
Judging from his hairline, I would say the Hair Club for Men.
grow the beard back and start smoking pot again?
FlyingMonkeyWarrior tomorrow is always a better day..we can only hope!
cheers M8!
IW send this to those who need "adjusments"
http://groups. yahoo.com/ group/gnashing_ teeth/
Raise rates to hedge inflation vs.
hold steady to prevent overextended borrowers from getting notices of default for Christmas?
What would you do?
I'm trying real hard not to feed the trolls here Keith.
Bernanke won't do anything. Yet. He, Moskow and Lacker have all made recent hawkish statements about their commitment to keep inflation down. No, I don't think that necessarily means they'll do anything about it. But it means that it would be contradictory for them to make a rate reduction in the near future and Bernanke doesn't like to make any surprise moves.
Personally, I think inflation is worse than the official numbers show and Bernanke is aware of it. I think he made a mistake in curtailing rate increases when he did and that he knows this was a mistake. He's trying to telegraph an increase, perhaps before the end of the year, perhaps at the beginning of 07.
Result? Another nail in the coffin for housing and a decline for the US economy and stock market while inflation and commodities keep on trucking.
That's right, its to-the-moon-Alice time. M3 growth is over 10%, so there's your answer to "What's Bernanke gonna do?".
You are all fools if you think the Fed is going to sit by and watch economic collapse. Don't fight the Fed.
+++++++++++++++++
Too many dollars in the pipeline will cause hyperinflation to ensue and the value of the dollar to tank. And after hyperinflation comes deflation. There will be no winners for this economic situation; nothing is gonna save us....
"Too many dollars in the pipeline will cause hyperinflation to ensue and the value of the dollar to tank. "And after hyperinflation comes deflation. There will be no winners for this economic situation; nothing is gonna save us...."
That is the conventional wisdom, but it assumes other central banks will not play along in this game. What if that assumption is wrong, and they have all secretly agreed to do whatever is needed to keep the wheels of commerce turning? There would be inflation, yes, pain yes, but in the end they could avert a total collapse because the debt ratios for the U.S. would become manageable once again.
In my life I have experienced a few severe economic down cycles and periods of correction where the government either did not act or over reacted while citizens endured extreme hardship, home losses, and bankruptcies, etc. This notion that "they will take care of me" is nonsense based both on current performance and past trends. There are many non producers out there who are going to be forced into the fold of production with the muscle of fluctuating financial trends.
He cannot afford to let foreign banks exit from US investments.
We will have a prolonged period of stagflation, all the while being told that we've got a Goldilocks economy. The official inflation and unemployment figures are gross underestimates.
That is the conventional wisdom, but it assumes other central banks will not play along in this game. What if that assumption is wrong, and they have all secretly agreed to do whatever is needed to keep the wheels of commerce turning?
++++++++++++++++
That's a possibility, but I don't see the central banks of the world trusting the Feds (and the Bush Administration that controls them) with ANYTHING like that. Plus, I think we have a LOT of enemies out there who would LOVE to see the USA go under....
We will have a prolonged period of stagflation, all the while being told that we've got a Goldilocks economy. The official inflation and unemployment figures are gross underestimates.
++++++++++++++++
"WILL have a prolonged period of stagflation"???? I think if our inflation and unemployment figures were accurate, you'd see our economy was ALREADY suffering stagflation....
if anyone sees fake keith post before i can delete, tell the other posters and let me know I need to delete - thanks
trolls
Borka, How can history be hatefull?
Tired of all the jew-baiting that goes on on this site. Keith, when are you going to stop allowing racist and antisemtic comments? I'm starting to believe you are a WASP Jew-hater yourself.
Things are looking pretty good here in Austin. Unemployment has dropped to the lowest level since 2001 after their Dot.com bust. Lots of new (from California) businesses are relocating their headquarters here. Population growth is good as people seek a better place to live then the over-bloated cities like LA. Most people who relocate to Austin are from Texas. California sends about 15,000 a year followed by Arizona with 3800. Growth here is driven by economics and not greed.
Oh, and I imagine Austin is more the model of what will happen in LA or Phoenix or Las Veags. They lost a significant number of high tech jobs and dot.com wealth in 2000. Foreclosures went up and prices stagnated. Out on the fringes (Plugerville, Manor, Kyle, etc) prices went down as foreclosures went up but in the most desired areas prices remained stable and some areas even saw increases. Now that six years have eaten away at the high cost (In 2000 it was definitely one of the more expensive cities to live than today) the economy is back on a healthy, non-bubble induced growth track.
Home prices even with bubble areas included still place the USA below the real bubble countries like England or Australia.
2,000 years they've been preaching the end of the world and Jesus ain't come back yet and HP has been preaching doom and gloom too and it hasn't come yet. Keith is too young to really know cycles versus depressions. Another cycle has come to a close but it isn't the end of the world.
The central banks that matter the most, Japan, China, and Korea, do not want to see a slow down in consumer spending in the U.S. economy. There is no other real market for their goods. China would have civil unrest and rebellion if their economy slows suddenly.
To preserve their ecoonomies, they will back whatever the U.S. Federal Reserve asks them to do. The Bank of Japan is handing out free money again, even though they announced that practice was ending.
http://groups. yahoo.com/ group/gnashing_ teeth/
Richard,
could not open the link.
Thanks.
wheels of commerce turning
------
International wheels of commerce turning
VS
USA Domestic Economy
Look at that picture, then watch
CaddyShack..
Bill Murray Quote.
" I've often thought of becoming a Golf Ball".
Isn't that a picture of one of the 911 terrorists?
Scenario #4 (the correct one)
His rate decision is irrelevant. REAL interest rates (rates ajusted for inflation) will remain negative forever.
Housing at worst will stagnate as renting costs skyrocket making these losfty home prices reasonable.
Housing WILL NOT collapse. all debt will be iflated away. renters will pay an increasing portion of income to housing.
Homedebtors will see their incomes rise rapidly to make their arms more affordable.
Bernanke will keep buying the long bond to keep long rates artificialy low.
BLS will keep lieing about actual inflation by manipulating the CPI index in cohorts with the fed and the inflationist usery thieves who run our government
Housingpanic will fade into obscurity just like www.f@ckedcompany.com did (replace @ with u)
a kid right out of college will have a staring salary of $150k in a couple of years.
a $6000k mortgage with be a bargain
Foxwood - even after I posted "look out for fake keith" you took the bait and responded to a fake keith post
for the second time - if you see a post from a "keith" that's obviously not from me - just click on the name and there'll be no blogger profile
pretty easy to spot
If only fairy tales were true... than we could all rest easy at night knowing that the government will always take care of us and has our best interest in mind. Scenario #4? Please... you are a babbling idiot.
" only fairy tales were true... than we could all rest easy at night knowing that the government will always take care of us and has our best interest in mind. Scenario #4? Please... you are a babbling idiot. "
whether this is a "fairy tale" or a nightmare depends on your standing. I didnt mean this in a "fairy tale" sort of way. hyperinflation is a nightmare -especially when the government does it intentionally lies about the cpi like Bernanke and usery cohorts do.
For a borrower, government DOES INDEED have their best interests in mind. those who control the amount of inflation BENEFIT from inflation.
I am not the babbling idiot here. look in the mirror for that one.
What it really comes down to is that housing will slowly fall by like 3, 4 or 5% for the next few years (3 years or more, depending on the location) than it will gradually increase again. There will be no drama for the masses just the select few that can't hold on. Interest rates will rise and it will all be blamed on that, as the fed trys to keep hold of the foriegn interest in the dollar.
The name of the game will be to make things occur so slowly that people hardly notice. The stock market may ebb and flow in face value (current numbers) while the real value is eroded as the dollar continues to fall and the market continues to crash in real terms, simply to balance finances out internationally as we move deeper and deeper into globalization. I do think that after the election, the stock market will fall in a somewhat strong fashion, when consumer spending takes a hit and the market is no longer being manipulated for election purposes.
My point is all the issues that HP talks about will occur, I just don't think there will be that much drama to it. Most people will be fine, while they wait the cycle out. It's those that over-extended themselvses that will lose big, but that's the reality of those who gamble big. You win big, and lose big. At worst, there will be a time of mild expansion, rather than massive expansion, like we have seen recently and people will have to learn to be more moderate in their money making and spending. All I'm saying is, I bought into this doom and gloom thing for a while, but I realize that life will go on for everyone and that some people will just need to start from the bottom of their financial struggle to "have it all".
Our future reality is that Americans will just have to learn to live and be happy with less...but it will continue to be a slow process that people hardly notice, as day after day the global economies balance out and there are a few that are rich, while the masses of all countries revert to a mean. Just because we have had it so good for the last 50-100 years does not mean it will always be so.
You are a total and complete babbling idiot! If you think that salaries will just majically increase, that employers will just simply triple everyones salary in a few years you are a babbling idiot...very very stupid and you must live in a bubble yourself. You are obviously a troll wishing for the best for your stupidity. Sorry kid life does not work that way...get used to it.
try this one
http://tinyurl.com/vkrrn
Inflation, even hyperinflation, is infinitely better than the alternative, deflation. All the HP doomsayers are betting on deflation, but everything from the unemployment statistics to the M3 growth point in the opposite direction.
A few years of moderate inflation will cure many of the so-called problems in the U.S. economy. I'm afraid the globalists have won this war and on average our standard of living is going to decline.
Who was it that said "The sunset colors of a civilization are often the most beautiful"?
Richard,
I am shocked, 0-:
but,
again LOL.
Thanks.
Thanks Keith for the info about fake posts using your name. First, how can someone register a name that is already in use? Does that mean I can sign in as Keith too? Or David, or flyingmonkeywarrior? If so we might as well all just sign in annoymous.
Still, I'll take your advice if I think there is a post by you and check your profile before I resond. I must have missed your previous post about baiting since sometimes I take a long break from HP because of so much negativity. Can only take so much. Then I usually just visit Ben's boring blog for smple articles instead of the rants and rages of lunatics. I do find many of them amusing, so I keep reading your site. It gives one a whole new perspective of how far so many who call themselves American's have strayed from values of the Constitution.
That' what Ben should do - Think Positive!
Let a Smile Be Your Umbrella!!!!!
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