I would suggest that all asset classes that had a hint of speculation will now tumble back to (or below their) natural level where basic supply and demand and fundamentals reign. Yes, this includes housing, oil, gold, silver, porkbellies or uranium. Why? liquidity is drying up, a classic post-bubble rush to safety and cash is underway, as the debt-loaded, savings-poor American consumer finally calls it a day.
I hate all political parties, and I hate all asset classes right now.
Commodity prices are due for a “protracted bear market” after speculators drove prices artificially high in recent months, Merrill Lynch & Co.'s chief investment strategist said Wednesday.
“We commented early last month that the level of speculation in commodities was at an all-time high,” said Richard Bernstein in a report. “Despite September's pullback in overall commodity prices, the level of speculation has actually risen!”
Merrill was not the only brokerage betting that the commodity space is getting riskier. An RBC Dominion Securities analyst turned bearish on the Canadian oil field services sector Wednesday, urging investors to view companies working in the field with caution, given the sharp drop in natural gas prices.
”In light of further risks to gas prices, exploration and production spending, and pressures on service pricing and margins created by potentially lower activity levels and more capacity, defensiveness and caution should continue to be the main theme over the next 6-9 months,” RBC's Angela Guo wrote in a note.
“By our reckoning, commodities' prices are now about 60 per cent above what could be explained by fundamental supply and demand,” the Merrill report said.
Its research suggests that September's drop in commodity prices might “only be the beginning” of a long-term drop in prices.
“We find it amusing that a consensus has now formed that housing is speculative and overdue for an extended pullback, yet many commodities have appreciated much more than housing has, and have done so in a shorter period of time,” Mr. Bernstein said.
“Housing is speculative, but commodities are purely a fundamental story? We disagree.”
October 08, 2006
Merrill Lynch: Commodities now in longterm bear market downturn
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
71 comments:
Keith - glad you finally saw the light on Gold and Oil.
And stocks and bonds are in the greatest bubble of them all.
Please don't call this "Great-Sea-of-Liquidity-AInduced-Bubbles" game quite over yet.
As long as the following is in place:
1. Fiat currency
2. Fractional reserve lending
3. Central banking
4. "Securitization" (dicing and slicing and selling off of debt)
5. Derivatives (to allow all manner of shifting risk, hiding losses, obscuring profits, evading taxes, avoiding regulation
6. The continued rise of China, India
7. The resurgence of Russia
8. The continued depletion of oil and natural gas resources
9. The willingness of sheeple in Western countries to live beyond their means.
10 The willingness of Japan to continue the "Yen-carry-trade", supplying near-infinite liquidity to hedge funds, investment banks
...then my "convulsions" theory will hold, whereby waves of debt default and destruction will be met by equal or greater waves of liquidity.
I predicted three years ago that this game could easily go on for five or more years. So far, I have been right.
Granted, the housing bust is in its first year, but don't by any means make the mistake that it's "game/set/match". The Fed/feds/foreign central banks have barely begun to stir. When these boyz get cranked up, THEN you will see a truly impressive tsunami of liquidity, interest rate lowering to zero, "helicopter drops of money", debt-moratoriums, nationalization of Fannie/Freddie/FHLB, bank/hedge fund/bailouts, GM/Ford bailouts, "RTC II" creation.
Each inflationary wave of liquidity will be noticed by commodities traders and will result in continued rises in commodity prices.
And again, I caution that to believe that the price of oil will do nothing but drop could be a fatal mistake. Just read any of the half-dozen or so books on peak oil, check the events in the Mid-East on any given day, and notice the growth and modernization of China and Inda, with THREE BILLION people before you declare the oil price at a "permanently low plateau".
Sorry, all you deflationists out there, but you will have to wait another few years and suffer massive inflationary responses by governments worldwide before you get your beloved deflation.
And when you do get what you wish for, YOUR bank account will be wiped out.
Who is going to believe these guys at Merrill Lynch and any other stock pusher?
Just a scare tactic to panic people out of gold.
Remember the dot com days in 2000?
I believe "peak oil" is a present day myth.
There's no present day, read 2006-2012, peak oil scenario, only come 2020-2030 but at that point in time, clean coal, shale oil, and sand tars will be more readily available for mass consumption. There's a couple of centuries of these other fossil fuels underground. I hope that by the year 2200, we have at least some sort of workable solar/geothermal sustainable energy source or otherwise, I've lost faith in modern science and technology.
Therefore, I predict a oil, base metals (Nickel, Cooper), and silver bearish cycle but with gold simply testing its fundamental contra-USD & EURO support levels at $420-$490/oz. Realize, when gold busted into the $550/oz+ territory, earlier this year, it was riding the commodities bull along with silver and the rest.
I'd bought my gold at $350-$390/oz and won't add any to that long term position until it hits $420 again. (Read: Gold's a hedge against devaluation, for both USD and peer currency pairs, not an asset class like commercial RE, pork belly contracts, or equities).
AND OF COURSE, THIS HAS NOTHING TO DO
WITH TRYING TO ENGENEER A RATE CUT AND
STEM A REPUG ROUT.
LOOK, COMMODITY PRICES ARE DOWN FOR A
MONTH OR TWO, PRESTO INFLATION IS GONE!
AND OF COURSE SHEEP WITH A 2 SECOND
ATTENTION SPAN GO FOR IT.
AND THE FED IS OUT TRYING TO TALK DOWN
INFLATION, LIKE IT REALLY CARES. TALK
REALLY IS CHEAP.
-MAHA
.
ANON ABOVE:
SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY HAVE NOT FAILED YOU, YOUHAVE FAILED IT. THERE IS PLENTY IT CAN DO FOR US IN TERMS OF ENERGY.
BUT IT IS THE POLICY THAT PULLS THE MONEY
THAT WOULD BE SPENT ON THIS RESEARCH.
I WORK AT A DOE LAB. AND THERE IS JUST ABOUT ZERO CONCERN FOR ALTERNATIVE
ENERGY.
THIS IS THE FAULT OF CITEZENS LIKE YOU AND
THE POLITICIANS THEY ELECT, NOT THE FAULT
OF SCIENCE.
-MAHA
First we should define deflation and inflation in terms of money supply expansion and contraction. Inflation and deflation are not a measure of prices. Prices movement is the eventual result of these two actions at the back end of the pipeline. As Butch has pointed out there are realities that cannot be ignored that will drive inflation by the central bankers. We live in a political climate of” what’s in it for me”. We now elect politicians who give us something for our vote. Don’t forget the $300 and $600 tax rebate checks that got GW into office. This was the tipping point of our Democracy. This mentality of handouts to voters is sure to continue. Inflation IS a huge concern:Treasuries Fall After Fed's Kohn Says Inflation Is a Concern
WASHINGTON (AFP) - A "substantial correction" in the housing market is hurting the US economy at the same time inflation is high, Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke said.
The Dollar is also nearing a tipping point. As recently as several months ago the dollar was that main topic at a G7 meeting. The IMF has repeatedly called for the dollar to depreciate 20% to remedy global imbalances. The IMF is also concerned about the risk of a disorderly drop in the dollar. Gold has been there before. It was facing a similar dollar issues and stagflation while interest rates were rising during the late seventies. Gold performed then as it will again. This time Volcker will not be raising rates to 18% to protect the dollar.
oh please everyone believe this...
sell all your gold and drive the price down for me...
the government is just going to let deflation happen so its $12878783727732924892483 gizzilion dollar debt is even harder to pay off, instead of inflating the debt out of exsistance...
beileve everything they tell you, please!
...idiots
"THIS IS THE FAULT OF CITEZENS LIKE YOU AND THE POLITICIANS THEY ELECT, NOT THE FAULT OF SCIENCE.
-MAHA"
I'm the anon above and yes, science has failed (FYI, I have a masters in applied chemistry) because the heads of scientific organizations have touted a constant shortage of S&Es just so that a bunch of us end up as underpaid postdocs jumping from one funding bandwagon to another (i.e. nanotech blah, blah to biodefense blah, blah). The smart ones leave the sciences for medicine or finance. That's why alternative energy research is DOA and only the extraction of shale oil and coal will suffice for much of this century.
Ya'll better be aware that there is no big oil pool out there waiting to be tapped except in Kazakhstan, which has to export through Iran or Turkey. OIl may see $55 but at that price you better go long. Gold is a no brainer under $600 as they inflate the $$. Copper, maybe $3.50 or maybe $2.50.
Shale oil and tar sands take a lot of water and will be the regret of Canada in future generations. Maybe the USA will get into CTL at the scale needed but with the price per barrel dropping near term the political will may not be there.
Anyone who is not getting into real assets like gold and oil does so at their own peril.
I am long GLD and SLV, hold physical metals, and will be getting more into oil and NG next month, besides reverse ETFs.
Six OPEC States Agree to Cut 1 Million Barrels a Day (Update1)
By Julie Ziegler and Andy Critchlow
Oct. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Six OPEC members, including Saudi Arabia, cut oil output by a total of 1 million barrels a day in an effort to revive prices that lost a quarter of their value in recent months, a spokesman for the group said.
The agreed cut, which represents a 3.4 percent reduction from OPEC's September total, has ``already happened,'' Levi Ajuonuma said in a phone interview in Nigeria today. The cutbacks, which include pledges made by Venezuela and Nigeria late last month to cut sales by a total of 170,000 barrels a day, are ``voluntary,'' he said.
Crude oil futures declined 5 percent last week to $59.76 a barrel and are down 24 percent from a record $78.40 a barrel on July 14 as tensions in the Middle East eased and fuel stockpiles rose. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 10 percent over the period as inflation fears receded and the Federal Reserve stopped a cycle of rate hikes.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which pumps 40 percent of the world's crude, agreed at a meeting on Sept. 11 to leave a production quota for 10 of its members unchanged at 28 million barrels a day. Since the meeting, the group's so-called basket oil price dropped 9.3 percent to $55.07 a barrel. Iraq isn't subject to quotas.
The 11-member group normally increases production ahead of the peak demand period during the Northern Hemisphere winter.
Falling Fast
``Not only is the price level important, but the precipitous nature of the oil price decline is an important factor behind OPEC action this time,'' said Brad Bourland, chief economist for Samba Financial Group, Saudi Arabia's second-largest publicly traded bank by market value.
``OPEC does not have a stated price target at the moment, but it is becoming clear that the organization will act to support a price between $50 and $60 a barrel.''
The oil exporters group regulates supply through a production quota system, which applies to all members except Iraq. The quota last changed in July 2005 when it was raised by 500,000 barrels a day to 28 million barrels a day.
Saudi Arabia, Venezuela and Nigeria are joined in the group of six by Kuwait, Libya and Algeria, Ajuonuma said. OPEC may announce tomorrow whether it plans to hold an emergency meeting to ratify the informal agreement, he said. The group is next scheduled to meet in Abuja, Nigeria on Dec. 14.
Iran Backs Cut
Iran, the group's second-largest producer, said it would back the output cut, according to a statement by Kazem Vaziri- Hamaneh, the country's Oil Minister, carried on the state-run Islamic Republic News Agency Web site today.
``Iran supports any kind of OPEC production cut,'' he said. He did not confirm whether the Islamic Republic would join the cut.
The ten OPEC states participating in the group's output quota system pumped 27.63 million barrels a day in September, according to Bloomberg data.
M3, the money supply, is growing at 10% annual rate. Where is the deflation? It isn't there, and Keith and all the other HP cheerleaders need to look at reality. The Fed (along with other central banks) is pumping liquidity like crazy and there will be no deflationary collapse.
Yes, spot oil prices have dropped from a peak that was driven by political fears. The demand/supply situation has not changed, and there is still only a small supply excess of 2-4 million barrels per day. The economies of China and India continue to expand, and when the excess is spoken for, oil prices will rise again. Throw in a terrorist incident or a shutdown in Nigeria from civil war, and we will have $100/bbl oil easily.
Bank manipulation behind gold plunge
Central banks may have dumped far more gold on the markets over the last three weeks than officially reported, accounting for the sudden plunge in prices that has stunned investors.
http://tinyurl.com/m8v2w
Now might be a good time to consider buying some..I know I am next week.
TO ANONYMOUS,
NOW THE PICTURE IS EVEN CLEARER.
YOU FAILED (ARE FAILING) OUT OF SCIENCE. SURE, ITS A TOUGH JOB MARKET, MADE WORSE BY IMPORTING FOREIGN COMPETITION.
AND YES, THE NEED FOR PHDS WAS
OVER HYPED IN LATE 80S EARLY 90S, BUT
SCIENCE IS AND SHOULD BE COMPETITIVE.
I NEVER GRADUATED HIGH SCHOOL. BUT I
CLAWED MY WAY UP, AND TODAY AM RATHER
SUCCESSFUL AT IT. JUST BECAUSE YOU GOT
IN DOES NOT GAURANTEE YOU JOB, ESPECIALLY
IF YOU SUCK. ON THE OTHER HAND, FUNDING
FOR SCIENCE SHOULD BE MUCH HIGHER, AND
THIS HAS MOST TO DO WITH OUR POLICY MAKERS
AND THOSE THAT ELECT THEM.
THE POINT OF DEMOCRACY IS THAT THE
VOTERS MUST BE EDUCATED TO MAKE GOOD
DECISIONS. THE FACT THAT THEY ARE
NOT HAS LED TO POOR POLICY DECISIONS.
SCIENCE FUNDING IS DEPENDENT ON THIS POLICY. LEADERS IN SCIENCE ARE NOT RESPONSIBLE FOR THIS DIRECTION, WE THE PEOPLE ARE, AND WE THE PEOPLE WILL SUFFER FOR ITS NEGLECT.
WHEN WE HAD A SOMEWHAT EDUCATED MIDDLE
CLASS THEY UNDERSTOOD THE IMPOTANCE OF
SCIENCE IN THE 1960's (YES I WORSHIP
KENNEDY), SCIENCE BENIFITED EVERYONE.
NOW, ITS ALL JUST TABLOID POLICY.
SHIT, JUST LOOK AT EVERY ONE ALL IN
A HUFF WITH FOLEYGATE WHILTE THE WOLVES
ARE AT THE DOOR GEOPOLITICALLY.
SCIENCE AND SCIENCE BASED POLICY IS THE ONLY THING THAT IS GOING TO SAVE OUR COLLECTIVE ASSES. WHEN SHTF ITS GOING TO BE TRAJICOMIC TO WATCH EVERYONE COME SNIVELING BACK TO THE WHITE COATS THEYVE TURNED THEIR BACKS ON AND BEG US TO SAVE THEM.
-MAHA
Merrill Lynch, et al, are all full of crap. Market manipulators, skimmers, con artists, that's all they are. Hear me now and believe me later, the amount of money is infinite, commodities are not. Short term monetary manipulations will not change this fact. I don't know about gold, but oil is headed to the moon. Like others have said, the government does not benefit from overall deflation because of the debt, therefore, ergo, inflation. This of course will not happen in a way which benefits the FBs, or the housing market. The PTB will fleece the sheep, it's what they do.
The problem is this:
Even cash is a "commodity". Just liquidating all your "hard" assets into cash is no guarantee you are saving the real value of your hard work.
Also, the world London Metals Exchange did run out of nickel a few months ago so the shortage in nickel is real and other base metals share a similar, if not identical shortage.
If you accept that China, India and Russia are going to truly start building out their infrastructures, you would have to believe all the building blocks of that infrastructure will come into high demand soon.
As negative as I am about the U.S. housing bubble crash about to come, I don't think "bubble" applies to everything.
The world sees that we are willing to pay $60.00 a barrel for crude without whining about alternative energy.
Why should any oil producing entity sell a finite asset at anything less that the most they can get for it?
Saudi Arabia has always been in our pocket due to the implied and real reliance they have on us to defend them from hostile strong men, a deal made back in the 1970s.
From my understanding however, they are at peak production right now so any of the other OPEC nations cutting productions can't necessarily be made up.
Also when things get tight, where do you think all the dollars held by foreigners will go? To buy oil, the most important commodity to keep mobile engines running. Those dollars will compete without our dollars.
The only monkey in this wrench is that maybe, the rest of the world is so screwed up they need the US and cannot let it stumble.
Yeah right.
My original reason for getting into the stock market was, "When the housing bubble crashes, all the winners will be putting their money somewhere else."
That's what I think we are seeing in the rejuvinated stock market. There is a lot of excess cash out there due to the housing bubble simply having created it out of thin air.
Until prices on real world goods start inflating, this excess cash, used to 20% returns doesn't like sitting in a bank account LOSING VALUE due to inflation.
So one bubble begats another. When the stock market tanks, soon, commodities and gold will be the next bubble.
Unless someone has a better idea of where this excess cash is headed.
I wouldn't be surprised to know that the glut in crude is being caused by taking some from Strategic Oil Reserve to keep Americans fat and happy until the November elections have occurred.
But how would you hide this act if it was being done?
"YOU FAILED (ARE FAILING) OUT OF SCIENCE. SURE, ITS A TOUGH JOB MARKET, MADE WORSE BY IMPORTING FOREIGN COMPETITION. "
Bullshit, I'd worked at both the DOD and the NIH system and have left for medical school. That's what an 'A' level student does. You, on the other hand, are a fool who'll be working on nano proposals showing stupid SEM pictures to bozos who don't be know what they mean.
After a certain age, you'll face underemployment and see much of your "fundamentals" work done in China, SE Asia, and the ex-Soviet Union and at that time, you'll be too old for medical school. Yes, even they practice age discrimination so it's best to leave with your top undergrad/grad marks and early publications and get that scholarship to an MD/PhD program all paid for by the NIH.
"Hear me now and believe me later, the amount of money is infinite, commodities are not. Short term monetary manipulations will not change this fact."
Bravo! Truer words I haven't seen. It really is "different this time" because the central banks can collaborate to create whatever liquidity is needed, whenever it's needed, and instantly pump it to wherever it's needed.
"Just read any of the half-dozen or so books on peak oil,"
Butch what sources would you suggest??
"Just a scare tactic to panic people out of gold."
Didn't Buffet say something like do what others are not doing to be safe?
LOSER MED STUDENT WANABE. OOOH, WORKING FOR NIH AND DOD MAKE YOU AN 'A'?? I TOUGHT PHYSICAL CHEMISTRY TO YOUR ILK 20 YEARS AGO. MEMORIZE, DON'T QUESTION! I'M GLAD YOU FINALLY HAVE FOUND YOUR LEVEL THOUGH. HOPE THE STUDENT LOANS DON'T STANGLE YOU WHEN THE AIR FINALLY GOES OUT OF THE HEALTH CARE BUBBLE. AND THAT BUBBLE IS GOING TO MAKE HOUSING LOOK LIKE PEANUTS.
(NOTE TO KEITH: THATS A GOOD TOPIC, THE HEALTH CARE BUBBLE).
AND I'M READY FOR UNEMPLOYMENT NOW. ALWAYS HAVE BEEN. I'LL FLIP BURGERS DURRING THE DAY, AND DO SCIENCE AT NIGHT. BECAUSE I CARE. I TOOK AN UNPAID POSTDOC TO DO THE WORK I LOVED. CAN YOU SAY THE SAME? OR DO YOU JUST CHASE THE MONEY?
-MAHA
"I believe "peak oil" is a present day myth."
Too funny and too sad at the same time.
For you Peak Oil doubters:
OIL CRUNCH
U.S. Energy Department study concludes crude production will peak, requiring other energy forms
September 23, 2006
TheChron.com
http://www.chron. com/disp/ story.mpl/ editorial/ 4208727.html
"HOPE THE STUDENT LOANS DON'T STANGLE YOU WHEN THE AIR FINALLY GOES OUT OF THE HEALTH CARE BUBBLE. "
Full ride (and no loans) and good luck with age discrimination in your field.
Plus, we get to do research during our residency's fellowship years (with cash).
"Maybe the USA will get into CTL "
They have it some suggest that cost at the pump will increase 3 to 5 fold with this "new" source.
Actually Hitler used CTL extensively.
Oh and a pesky little issue about coal consumption rates...at 2-4% current rate coal consumption...250 years remaining.
Add CTL increase and throw in an elctric car or 250 million and that 250 years plummets to 25 years.
Funny how that works...then Keith how much do you think coal will cost? I would guess REALL expensive like oil...like gold...like silver...oh like all commodities.
wow - more proof that the commodity bull market is still in its infancy - six months of general acceptance by the public, gold hits $720 and oil hits $78 and that's the end of that.
"some from Strategic Oil Reserve to keep Americans"
and from the 5 Billion Barrels floating on the open seas at any given time....
Yeah, I'm an involuntarily underemployed scientist. No I don't suck at science.
The policy makers suck at understanding.
Hey Keith why did you delete all my posts yesterday related to Peak Oil, but today seems like most all don't buy your bullshit abou peak oil being a non-issue as you "allow" this conversation to continue.
All Hail the Biatch.
By the way, Uranium is near all time highs.
Market dynamics are different from other commodities:
* there are few sources of uranium. New mines take years.
* uranium cannot be replaced with any other fuel without redesigning the reactor
* utilities will not let their nuclear plants go idle because they have too little uranium.
* uranium production is significantly less than yearly demand, the rest is currently filled by stockpiles
* uranium costs, despite being up 400-500%, are still a small fraction of costs for nuclear power. Fuel costs are less than for gas and maybe even coal, hence it is advantageous to keep on fueling at higher prices.
OTHER ANON.
GOOD LUCK TO YOU BRO. HANG IN THERE.
DO WHAT YOU LOVE AND THE REST WILL COME.
AND IF NOT, AT LEAST YOU WERE YOUR OWN
MAN (OR WOMAN).
AND TO OTHER LOSER MED STUDENT:
ENJOY BEING THE PAID MONKEY OF BIG PHARMA.
DOING RESEARCH LIKE THAT IS LIKE GETTING
PAID BY PETROLEUM RESEARCH FUND TO LOOK
AT GLOBAL WARMING. YOU WILL BE A BOUGHT
AND PAID FOR BIOSTITUTE.
NOT WORRIED ABOUT AGE DESCRIMINATION.
I SQUAT 315 AND BENCH 225 FOR 12.
AND WHEN YOU ARE RENOUNED, PEOPLE STILL
LISTEN, EVEN IF YOU ARE SENILE.
-MAHA
richard - you're on my anti-threadjack-auto-delete
stick to the topic at hand. you're encouraged to talk about peak oil on this one - it fits
but no 9/11!
folks, let me state my theory in the most simple terms - poke holes if / where you can as I'm not married to it - being such fresh thinking on my part
1) post-bubble behaviour dictates people get out of illiquid assets that they had speculated on during the bubble, and into the relative safety of liquid cash
- this is what is driving down the price of houses, oil and gold today
2) the government and fed are doing everything they can to keep the economy going - thus pumping money (look at m3) into the system, and piling up debt
- this is what is causing inflation at the consumer level, and also my $20 hamburger today in london
* So, to conclude, I expect investment / speculative asset deflation, and consumables inflation. with a weakening dollar due to debt and m3 offset in someways by the rush to cash and the perceived safety of the US$. this is also what is causing bond prices to rise and interest rates to fall
Now, consider this theory, give it a chance in your head, even if you have 100% dead set beliefs about gold or houses or whatever.
Now give it feedback.
"By the way, Uranium is near all time highs."
And yet another commodity in this "bear" matrket - tell me it ain't so!! I love my cash, cash is king, Keith says cash rules and I will be safe...
Mother
Pink Floyd
(The Wall)
Mother, do you think they'll drop the bomb?
Mother, do you think they'll like this song?
Mother, do you think they'll try to break my balls?
Ooooowaa Mother, should I build a wall?
Mother, should I run for President?
Mother, should I trust the government?
Mother, will they put me in the firing line?
Ooooowaa Is it just a waste of time?
Hush, my baby. Baby, don't you cry.
Momma's gonna make all of your nightmares come true.
Momma's gonna put all of her fears into you.
Momma's gonna keep you right here under her wing.
She won't let you fly, but she might let you sing.
Momma's gonna keep Baby cozy and warm.
Oooo Babe.
Oooo Babe.
Ooo Babe, of course Momma's gonna help build a wall.
Mother, do you think she's good enough,
For me?
Mother, do you think she's dangerous,
To me?
Mother will she tear your little boy apart?
Ooooowaa Mother, will she break my heart?
Hush, my baby. Baby, don't you cry.
Momma's gonna check out all your girlfriends for you.
Momma won't let anyone dirty get through.
Momma's gonna wait up until you get in.
Momma will always find out where you've been.
Momma's gonna keep Baby healthy and clean.
Oooo Babe.
Oooo Babe.
Ooo Babe, you'll always be Baby to me.
Mother, did it need to be so high?
Who the F#@!K brought up 9-11 bitch in the last dozen or so threads...show me bitch.
screw off Keith.
Everyone is having a 'S**t' coniption over gold ownership!
Why?
I have yet in 50yrs seen anyone who was a loser with gold
Unless they bought at absolute peak high then got scared and sold on pullback.
Don't buy looking for immediate killing.
Buy it, hold it, watch it...possibly for years.
Buy what you can afford, or what your comfortable with.
But, What if it goes to nothing?
It never has! Quit sweatin!
Keith finds joy in spraying this blog with disinformation ...
Man lot of anger in here today..not sure if I should have a morning coffee or a shot of booze.
Anyway I find it funny that since George Dush and 'DICK' Cheney took office we here more and more about Peak Oil. Is it a fact..one would assume so, I mean after all we have no more Dinosaures walking around.
Well we do have plenty realtors we could bury for a 100 thousand years . Only problem with that is they dont fossilise they just dry up like dog shit and blow away in the wind.
yup peak oil.
Where the Prize Ultimately Lies': Cheney's 1999 London speech
Back in September 1999, a full year before the US elections which made him the most powerful Vice President in history, Cheney gave a revealing speech before his oil industry peers at the London Institute of Petroleum.. In a global review of the outlook for Big Oil, Cheney made the following comment:
"By some estimates there will be an average of two per cent annual growth in global oil demand over the years ahead along with conservatively a three per cent natural decline in production from existing reserves. That means by 2010 we will need on the order of an additional fifty million barrels a day. So where is the oil going to come from? Governments and the national oil companies are obviously controlling about ninety per cent of the assets. Oil remains fundamentally a government business. While many regions of the world offer great oil opportunities, the Middle East with two thirds of the world`s oil and the lowest cost, is still where the prize ultimately lies. Even though companies are anxious for greater access there, progress continues to be slow. It is true that technology, privatisation and the opening up of a number of countries have created many new opportunities in areas around the world for various oil companies, but looking back to the early 1990`s, expectations were that significant amounts of the world`s new resources would come from such areas as the former Soviet Union and from China. Of course that didn`t turn out quite as expected. Instead it turned out to be deep water successes that yielded the bonanza of the 1990`s."
RICHARD IS HIGH AGAIN.
RICHARD, LAY OF THE PIPE DUDE.
AND KEITH SAID:
"offset in someways by the rush to cash and the perceived safety of the US$."
KEITH, YES THE TELLING WORD HERE IS "SOMEWAYS". BUT I THINK I AGREE STRONGLY
WITH BORKA. THIS IS A HEAD FAKE BY THE
CENTRAL BANKS. IT IS THE DUMP PART OF
OF THE PUMP AND DUMP INFLATIONARY
CYCLE. WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT, SINCE
1913.
IF INFLATION GOES STRAIGHT UP, NO ONE
WILL TOLERATE IT. JUST LIKE CONSENT, THE
POWERS (NOT THE JEWS YOU BIGOTS), BUT
CERTAINLY THE POWERS MUST MAKE US DESIRE
INFLATION. SO WE WILL GET A DEFLATIONARY
SCARE, AND WE WILL ALL BEG THE FED TO OPEN
THE SPIGOTS, WHICH THEY WILL ONLY BE TO HAPPY TO DO.
ACTUALLY, I THINK THEY WILL NOT WAIT FOR
BEGGING. I THINK WHILE THINGS ARE GOING
DOWN, THE M3 WILL BE GOING BALLISTIC. BY THE TIME WE WAKE UP TO IT, INFLATION WILL BE (FURTHER) THROUGH THE ROOF.
-MAHA
KEITH, YES THE TELLING WORD HERE IS "SOMEWAYS". BUT I THINK I AGREE STRONGLY
WITH BORKA. THIS IS A HEAD FAKE BY THE
CENTRAL BANKS. IT IS THE DUMP PART OF
OF THE PUMP AND DUMP INFLATIONARY
CYCLE. WASH, RINSE AND REPEAT, SINCE
1913.
IF INFLATION GOES STRAIGHT UP, NO ONE
WILL TOLERATE IT. JUST LIKE CONSENT, THE
POWERS (NOT THE JEWS YOU BIGOTS), BUT
CERTAINLY THE POWERS MUST MAKE US DESIRE
INFLATION. SO WE WILL GET A DEFLATIONARY
SCARE, AND WE WILL ALL BEG THE FED TO OPEN
THE SPIGOTS, WHICH THEY WILL ONLY BE TO HAPPY TO DO.
ACTUALLY, I THINK THEY WILL NOT WAIT FOR
BEGGING. I THINK WHILE THINGS ARE GOING
DOWN, THE M3 WILL BE GOING BALLISTIC. BY THE TIME WE WAKE UP TO IT, INFLATION WILL BE (FURTHER) THROUGH THE ROOF.
-MAHA
--------------------
stop yelling we can hear you. caps
"RICHARD IS HIGH AGAIN.
RICHARD, LAY OF THE PIPE DUDE."
too funny!!
My original reason for getting into the stock market was, "When the housing bubble crashes, all the winners will be putting their money somewhere else."
That's what I think we are seeing in the rejuvinated stock market. There is a lot of excess cash out there due to the housing bubble simply having created it out of thin air.
++++++++++++++++
Yep, the equities bubbles is reinflating as the housing bubble is bursting. It's been several years since 2000, so there are a lot of new people on the scene who don't remember or don't know how much some of us lost back then....
What do scientists and elephants have in common?
They both work for peanuts.
:They both work for peanuts.
That is if they can find work to begin with. Big companies, like Uncle Duppie below, are shedding jobs in the thousands and investing in Asia.
http://pubs.acs.org/cen/news/8215/print/8215dupont.html
Hey Maha,
Jack Kennedy was dead for over a decade when I was born. His idealism means nothing today.
It's completely irresponsible for you to be trying to tell the younger generation to pursue a career in the sciences when the career prospects are so dim in contrast to being a doctor or financier. Many students today are leaving masters and PhD programs in droves because there are few jobs other than postdocs and you encourage this? How old are you? 50? When was the last time you'd mentored anyone in modern times? My mentor at the NIH lab told me (as well as others in the group) to attend medical school. He was an MD/PhD himself and saw that funding was only going to get harder down the road and that it's better to have a clinical practice to fall back on than in living on the grant system. Wake up and start acting like a voice that's concerned for his fellow scientists than only in his own personal Von Neumann cult of personality. If you want someone to blame, just look at the head of scientific societies and their funding boards.
Peak oil means new oil sources are few and existing production will decline.
But I don't knwo if that will keep prices up. Sometimes they fall anyway.
Theoretically there has to be a minimum amount of capital invested to keep production expanding or even constant. Without high enough prices there won't be capital invested.
But I don't know what price level that is.
Oil sands are expensive. Oil shale has never been shown to be viable, AFAIK. It take more energy into oil shale than energy you get out, IIRC. It's also polluting and takes up alot of water. Also, there is no "oil" in oil shale. It's an organic material, not oil.
What stocks are good uranium plays? Maybe BHP in Austrialia?
richard, chill pill dude. your anger makes you look like a lunatic
well, then again, you probably are a lunatic, so par for the course
anyone want to bet richard goes to jail before bob toll?
Already been there Keith - more than once - in fact more than 1/2 dozen times...mostly for beating the shit out o bitches like you.
Care 2 try me punk?
SHIT!
"Peak oil means new oil sources are few and existing production will decline."
The only thing I would add is that the low hanging fruit is gone...the sweet crude - the heavy sour is left and with every barrel it gets more expensive to get out of the ground and refine.
So while a demand destruction event may cause demand to be reduced - the cost of extracting oil and refining it will continue to rise.
In all likelihood a large amount of oil will be left in the ground because it is too expensive (EROI) to extract.
Already been there Keith - more than once - in fact more than 1/2 dozen times...mostly for beating the shit out o bitches like you.
Care 2 try me punk?
-----------------
Mother Fuxking Stevie Wonder Jokes and Shit.
Banks may be behind plunge in gold price
By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Central banks may have dumped far more gold on the markets over the last three weeks than officially reported, accounting for the sudden plunge in prices that has stunned investors.
Barclays Capital said Europe's banks had sold an extra 100 tonnes from reserves in a rush to meet a quota deadline on Sept 26, but had done so by selling through forward contracts that disguised the effect.
"We have been able to infer this from trading patterns. It has had a major impact on the markets," said Costanza Jacazio, the bank's gold expert. Barclays is one of the world's three top bullion traders.
"We suspect that the Banque de France has been involved," she said.
The huge sales would help explain gold's brutal fall from $640 an ounce in early September to $559 this week, an effect compounded in recent days by hedge fund liquidation. It was up slightly yesterday at $569.75 in New York trading.
Gold typically rallies in September in the build-up to the Indian marriage season. While gold has undoubtedly been hit by the broader fears of a commodity slump, base metals have held up much better. The central banks have reported sales of just 393 tonnes of gold for the year, far below the 500 annual limit agreed under the Washington Accord, and agreement by 15 central banks in Europe.
Barclays said the group had in reality met the 500 tonne limit, with others snapping up the unused quota of the Bundesbank - which has balked at selling in order to assert its independence against Berlin's politicians.
"We believe this is actually very bullish for gold because it shows that the sell-off was not driven by investors," said Ms Jacazio.
Philip Klapwijk, chairman of the precious metals group GFMS, said bullion would soon resume its five-year bull market. "The game is not over for gold. We've still got a big dollar devaluation ahead," he said.
You don't understand sheeple, it's a debt bubble! The US economy is in dangerous territory. Fed has only one lever to adjust the situation. The housing bubble is a result of easy credit. The overwhelming debt is killing the economy.
Gold rules in this situation.
PMs headed up nicely Sunday evening per Kitco.
Go to the 12:00 noon report and scroll to the last interview. This guy is a renowned expert on oil. You should heed his words. "A long bull trend in oil".
http://www.robtv.com/shows/past_archive.tv
Gold will go below $300 again.
Housing down around 50%.
Global warming is not man-made.
HIV does not cause AIDS.
Its true - Gold has been going down and down and down since its high on May 12th - but this week it been steadly gaining ground which I find very odd since we are in October.
What's stranger still, is that last September gold was flying, but not this September?...can we honestly say, Indians did'nt buy gold for their wedding season?
Gold and oil have to remain low until after the new year, then all hell will break loose on any form of bad news.
Who really believes we are in deflationary times?
My car insurance went up 200 dollars over last year...for no reason.
Kaiser is raising their co-pays... and SBC raised their rates on DSL.
People, deflation comes at the end of the business cycle, and we are not there yet....
When everything is less expensive, then we are in deflation, meaning, when we reach the bottom of the RE buyers market, is when we will have true deflation.
For now, think Gold.
That NK nuke test (if it was a nuke, no way to know) has my gold up nicely.
See how there is a flight to gold for safety? Look at Kitco.com 3 day chart to see how the WS pigs stole the sheep's gold during lunch on Friday.
Got Gold - "the" got gold from the old forum - is it you?
Thursday, September 14, 2006
The contrarian play - buying gold, silver and oil today
Bought $20k each of Gold, Silver and COP today
Everyone's selling, I'm buying. Everyone's buying, I'm selling. They all may go down more from today, but get ready for the bounce... Flame away haters, but at least I take a stand and put my money where my mouth is.
Gold Gains as Investors Bet 8.1% Drop in 5 Sessions Is Overdone
Sept. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Gold in New York rebounded from a 10- week low as some investors bet the 8.1 percent drop in prices in the past five sessions was overdone.
Gold's seven-day relative-strength index fell below 30 for a third straight day, a signal prices may rise. Before today, the metal was down 19 percent from a 26-year high of $732 an ounce in mid-May.
``The market is now so severely oversold that a bounce is inevitable,'' said Dennis Gartman, gold trader, economist and editor of the Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter
posted by keith at 6:26 PM
mort wrote:
Hear me now and believe me later, the amount of money is infinite, commodities are not.
YES! And this is PRECISELY why we must NEVER AGAIN tie our economy or currency directly to a finite commodity like gold.
Let's see, foreigners hold 3 trillion in US debt (actual savings, no credit cruch possible) that will need to be diversified into something of actual value. Meantime we need $3 billion a day in the US to tread water and pay interest on our debt (long term inflation). How exactly does that make gold and silver worth less in the future? Precious metals will decouple from other commodities because precious metals are money. Not only that, if we go into a world recession, that means less mining of base metals which means less silver and gold. There are very few outright silver and gold mines, most of it is the by-product of base metal mining. That means less PMs being mined, more dollars being printed. How does that make PMs worth less. Long term, PMs will go way up, not down. Quality mining company shares will go up in value too. Gold and silver went up in value during the Great Depression, and that was a deflationary event.
"Gold and silver went up in value during the Great Depression, and that was a deflationary event."
Well, it was mainly Silver since Gold wasn't freely traded back then.
And Silver definately held its ground, $0.25/oz to $0.75/oz, from '33 to '37, whereas all other commodities were in deflation.
Seriously.
You need to to focus on the supply/demand case for Basemetals.
Zinc and Nickel is not doing good. It will take until 2009 before enough mines come into place. Or even further off.
Energy will continue to rise. Oil and Uranium.
Supply/Demand! Nothing else.
Enjoy the ride!
Nickel:
http://tinyurl.com/srpe2
Zinc:
http://tinyurl.com/y6xahu
Prices are not created out of thin air. It's an agreement we make regarding a thought. It's a piece of cloth-paper with green ink on it until we all agree it's a dollar.
Bucky Fuller was the first human to note that, although we have the technology for everyone on the planet to live like a millionaire, we don't have the thought that everyone should.
The simple fact is that the 'average' American lifestyle requires 12 harvestable acres annually. When this simple equation is factored on a planetary basis, we come up three (3!) planets short for our population today.
When the emerging markets (North Korea) begin seriously competing (ransoming) for resources, air, food and water, all our smart psychomic modelling will be moot.
Comment
Post a Comment