October 26, 2006

HousingPanic blamed by California MSM newspaper with helping cause housing crash by confusing potential homedebtors


OK, now it’s getting weird.

HousingPanic was blamed today by the Palm Springs Desert Sun with causing the housing bubble to burst and spreading lies. Here’s the quote, I mean "fact", reported by the Desert Sun:

Ten fast facts about Coachella Valley’s housing market

#2: Blogs such as housingpanic.blogspot.com are helping to confuse buyers about everything from rumors to “bubble” theories.


Well, I’m flattered. And pissed. And laughing. "Fact"? Try "REIC spin point" instead.

Seriously,
this reporter either made a big mistake reporting realtor spin as "fact", or is just simply another corrupted pawn of the REIC, like Catherine Reagor. You can ask for a retraction or clarification by emailing him here (michael.perrault@thedesertsun.com).

At the end of the day, it’ll all get worse, much much worse. HP and the bubble blogs will indeed be blamed in part for causing the bubble to burst, and thus the financial downfall of America. I’ll be called a treasonous traitor (as I was yesterday over at Bloodhound Blog), HP will be seen as a force of evil by crushed homedebtors and the devastated REIC, and we’ll get more and more trolls – mainly unemployed REIC and pissed homedebtors.

And to think, all we wanted is for housing to return to normal, where homes are again simply a place to live, not lottery tickets, with appreciation that matches the base inflation rate, and where a young couple could save up a 10% downpayment, take out a 30-year fixed mortgage, and pay a reasonable share of their income for a decent place to live and raise a family.




70 comments:

panicearly said...

congratulations keith and hp. this guy used to write for a denver paper too.

Salt Lake Mortgage Guy said...

Headline- HP Flying Monkey Warriors leave Seattle and head for Coachella Valley.

They fight, they bite, they snipe. Can anything stop them?

Only the collapse of the American economy!

Go monkeys, go!

Anonymous said...

mortgage guy getting hungrier and hungrier - send food

Attack Monkey Squadron 96 said...

LOL... That moron reporter doesn't realize that he's actually driving traffic your way by printing HP's web address. He's actually pushing people to HP's 'debriefing/un-brainwashing' headquarters.

Silly REIC reporter, tricks are for kids!

real estate 101 said...

It's never as bad or as good as the gov't wants us to believe. I still say it's a debt bubble not a housing bubble.
People can't afford all of the useless crap they've bought. The real estate market in my area is still normal. But, the foreclosures have skyrockets from 1-2/month to 1-2/day. I received 7 NOD (notice of defaults) pre-foreclosure alerts on Monday. Some people have really overextended themselves. Not everyone is capable or worthy of homeownership. You don't pay, you don't stay. The goal should be to pay it off. Too many sheeple only focus on their ability to make the payments.

David in JAX said...

I bet this reporter has only glanced at this blog out of laziness. Or, he's discounting the facts and statistics that are posted on this blog because he has financial interest in the REIC.

Anonymous said...

Keith, for over a year I have read this blog and others digesting articles, analysis and the housing debate. I live in Southern California.

1 year ago, all my business associates called my ideas "chicken-little" and lumped my kind with the likes of the "nay-sayers" and "doomsdayers."

Now they look at me with a strange sense of awe as if I were the descendent of Nostradamus prediciting their uncertain futures.

Bottom Line:

An associate of mine is living off his HELOC loan because there is INSUFFICIENT INCOME to support his lifestyle and home payment because his business is slow. I wonder ho much he drained his company reserves as well? He is hoping to sell his home to break even after sucking it dry. The only problem is is that he only has a limited amount of time before the music ends and he has to pay the piper. I wonder how many out there have the same situation? Everyone is betting on ulimited credit.

I don't think we remember what it is like when the faucet is turned off.

Contacts in the automotive industry believe business is at its worst in over a decade. People are so buried in their vehicles that it is diffuclt to get most financed because there is NO MONEY to put down on purchases. Auto auctions are packed with vehicles (esp. gas guzzling SUVs) with limited amounts of buyers. Big fish are eating the little fish and those with the deepest pockets are surviving because there is so much less pie to be divided.

Contacts in the private banking industry have stated that the Federal Reserve audits are strongly pushing getting out of residential real estate holdings. As for the mortgage industry, office consolidations and layoffs are becoming more commonplace as business slows.

I see more and more large businessess "betting on the come" in order to make their monthly nut. Please remember that business can function as an ATM as well as owners "bet on the come" in hopes that the bleeding will stop.

What frightens me the most is that there is bleeding everywhere with no end in site (New China pehaps?, year right!). Our country has become a nation of "debt addicts" getting their monthly fix.

I believe the detox has just begun. . . .and although it is positive in the long-term it is going to get very ugly in the short term.

keith said...

david in jax - my bet is the reporter hasn't even BEEN to this blog. he was just relaying REIC talking points as "facts"

I've sent him a note asking him to comment here today

On the HELOC point last anon (pick a handle!) - damn, I bet you're right - American's haven't noticed their incomes have fallen and we've lost our manufacturing base because they're all living beyond their means (and salaries) with HELOC money.

Only problem is that the paper gains have now disappeared - and they owe that money back!

Oh, man, can it get any uglier?

can it?

Patch Tuesday said...

Everytime that you think you've seen it all, another NAR cheerleader bares their breasts...

Metroplexual said...

Keith,

This is probably just the beginning of blame being focussed at the blogospere. The REIC is going to point fingers and they need their scapegoat. As long as the facts presented on this and other blogs are true they will be revealed for the hacks that they are.

Metroplexual said...

2. Blogs such as housingpanic.blogspot.com are helping to confuse buyers about everything from rumors to “bubble” theories.

So you are "helping" Keith. That is a positive isn't it?

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

Congrats Keith.

MMAfia said...

BAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!

And to think, this is just the beginning... I think we're getting to the "anger" stage of the cycle... can't wait for capitulation!!!

GO ARM RESETS GO!!!!

Paul E. Math said...

I don't believe that reporter is just an innocent sucker who doesn't realize the falsehoods that he is spreading. I say this because of the residential areas he chose to compare the Coachella Valley to - that's just deliberately misleading. "Hey, our affordability is incredibly low but at least it's not as low as L.A. and San Fran". It's also not as low as Boston where single family home prices have now dropped 5% and are continuing to fall.

The reporter could also have stated what home prices would be if the affordability were 'normal'. He quoted a couple sources calling for an 'adjustment' and a 'balanced re-positioning' but didn't follow-up to say what that would mean. I'll do it for him. A person with the median income of $50k should be able to afford the median priced home. Since responsible lenders generally allow a person to borrow no more than 3x their income the average home should be (adding 10% down-payment and a 3 * $50k) approximately $165k.

But hey, that's still a lot more expensive than some places in the mid-west and the south. This guy is just a whore for the Real Estate industry.

Anonymous said...

I wonder if this reporter is related to David Liareah?

David said...

I stand with you Keith! Keep fighting the good fight!

David
Bubble Meter

a.creampuff said...

Real estate only goes up...unless someone starts a blog.

Anonymous said...

Don't take the blame Keith, take the credit.

Flying Monkey circus said...

I will add my congratulations in being fingered as the blog to blame. Ben was getting too much of the credit.

See what good things come when the political bickering is dropped in favor of economic discussion?

Debt. What a poison pill... that so many have swallowed. Too bad we can't get stats on 401K withdrawls. That information should be available since the fed guvmint gets to tax it as income but more telling is the extra 10% they get due to the early withdrawl. And that is just another form of debt because the FBs are spending their money that was supposed to be there for them later. This may have long term effects, not to the positive.

Anonymous said...

according to web statistics, housingpanic.blogspot.com isn't very popular.

thus, the reporter must have had a day of "self doubt" after reading the site and woke up in the morning, in a sweat, wondering about "reputation" and thinking "are people going to think that I mislead them?"

In the end, the reporter decided to bad mouth the messenger of truth rather than accept it.

25 year old in Northern VA said...

Amen on the last Paragraph.

Anonymous said...

"Debt. What a poison pill... that so many have swallowed. Too bad we can't get stats on 401K withdrawls."

I think you can also "borrow against" your 401k to buy a house... So what happens if you can't pay yourself back?

Housebust770 said...

Keith, I posted previously as anonymous and now have a handle :)

To be specific, the associate borrowed 100K in 2006 on a Heloc and is using 3K per month to pay his house payment. 50K went into his business as a much needed cash injection for operations and equipment.

Meanwhile, he is no longer paying himself a salary at his business since decreased sales (recession?) and increase costs (inflation?) have squeezed profits.

He estimates that he will run out of
Heloc money in 12 months.

The interesting part is that they put their house on the market (750K) that they bought for 600K. With the Heloc that makes a due bill of 700K without taking into consideration cleaning, upgrades, and agent fees.

Oops . . .I forgot . . . a declining asset value due to inflated inventory.

So here is where it gets interesting. He's playing a "float" hoping that the market will improve and/or business will increase so he can make up the deficit. I admit it was creative, however, the risk could wipe out decades of work and effort.

I wonder how many people have maxed out BUSINESS lines of credit in addition to maxed out PERSONAL lines of credit.

It reminds me of the ATMs at casinos hoping they can place another bet to "win back" the 2 grand they lost at the craps table.

Time is the key factor in all this. All these credit bets ignore the fact that sooner or later the CREDITOR will want his money and the well will run dry sooner or later.

I believe our future success (as the little guy) is directly proportionate to our capacity to be patient during the downturn.

The question I am trying to figure out is, who is holding our debt and when/how might the "big picture" transnational US Debt/Import business deal go sour?

Anonymous said...

hey salt lake mortgage guy:

if anyone is helping to collapse the american economy it is people such as yourself

and unfortunately it is people such as myself who will have to pay for it in the form of higher taxes to bail out the GSE's, i.e. Fannie and Freddie who put their seal of approval on all of the garbage loans you and your white trash, uneducated bretheren are resonsible for

Ronald McMansion said...

your NOT a professional Keith, what do YOU know about the Real Estate market?

If professional realtors say the market is just fine, its just fine, keep buying.

Anonymous said...

http://www.forbes.com/video/?video=fvn/economy/al_house102506&partner=yahootix

The realtor in this clip from Forbes should get their own mention as she is crazy. There is no drop...whatever.

Anonymous said...

It's Greenspan's fault.

He won't shut his mouth. I wouldn't particular care if he was right but he's just so out of touch with reality I think he's gone senile and he's undermining the current Fed.

geeski said...

the MSM crap of quotes from realtors and their mouthpieces is the true problem here. ignoring data and trends and just blaming others is play-ground antics. sadly, it is now part of our culture. just watch any republican attack ad. 'nuff said. if you can't defend yourself or the truth, then attack. next thing you know, these freaks will attack the mirror.

Anonymous said...

"your NOT a professional Keith, what do YOU know about the Real Estate market?"

While I am certainly not a RE professional, I certainly do know that RE is tanking....hahahahaha

Joey said...

Keith you officially have more power than that ratface David Liar.

How does it feel to be so powerful, according to this newspaper?

What a joke the MSM is!

Robert Coté said...

The correct response is to contact his editor and tell him that the reporter did not attempt to contact you for a "fact check." This is a serious breach of the reporters terms of employment and will most certainly spawn a follow up article with your side at least presented.

Mark in San Diego said...

Way to go Keith!!!. . .of course those "confusing" items are 90% links to MSM articles reposted by you and other blogs. . .I guess they feel Barrons, USA Today and San Diego Union links are all "confusing" to the average person - perhaps they should just listen to their RE Agent. . .kind of like taking adivce from a used car salesman!

twist said...

There is a scene at the end of the movie "The King and I" where the King sees his son telling his people that they shouldn't grovel before their king. He turns to Mrs. Anna and says, "This is all your fault." She responds, "Oh I hope so."

The REIC has been it's own worst enemy and would be doomed to collapse with or without bloggers- but if we've played any part in breaking up their out of control party- I agree with Mrs. Anna.

Twist
Housingdoom

Disgorge! said...

For God's sake, Kweef, stop ruining the housing market!

not buying the bubble said...

Wow, Keithy might get thrown in jail for being a traitor. Think about it, when Enron went bust all those people went to jail now what could happen to Keith for destroying the housing market?

Anonymous said...

The home sales numbers in the media focus on certain markets. Is there any website I can go to to see monthly sales and historical sales for individual cities?

Anonymous said...

Chicago Title Company recently closed its office in Cloverdale, N. CA. - no business!!

twist said...

Keith-

You should watch this on bloggers- a find at Immobilienblasen from the Daily show:

http://immobilienblasen.blogspot.com/2006/10/stephen-colbert-on-blogs-tribute-to.html

devestment said...

Imagine that. The free exchange of ideas and information being dubbed confusing buyers with bubble theory. This would be similar to me saying “The Antique Roadshow is confusing sellers about the potential value of their historical objects, rendering them unable to proceed with a hasty sale”

Melsky said...

Congrats on the great publicity.

Robert Coté said...

Keith, a fellow blogger's advice. Free and probably worth even less:

When they call you keithy or kweef or k-poo or whatever it means you've not only scored, you've won the debate.

Trust me from someone who gets the bobby, boobie bit all the time.

Robert

Disgorge! said...

We call him Kweef because we love him. Anything associated with queefing is close to my heart.

Anonymous said...

Robert I love you, so please forgive me. My favorite is "Boobie Kotex"

Robert Coté said...

Ohhhh, Anon:

Thanks, everytime I feel old it always helps to revisit the 4th grade.

Oh, and meaty, I knew you were just extending your hairy arms for a knuckle dragging "group hug" and actually agreeing with "k-poo." My comment still stands; when they get all friendly like they are either agreeing with you or they've lost it entirely.

Anonymous said...

I'm just glad you stuck around.

Anonymous said...

There's an old eastern European saying that goes like... 'he who tells the truth is driven from every village'.

"Hunter" said...

Congrats Keith!!!
You must have been at it again spreading those vicous facts because the national median price of homes dropped 9.5%.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/061026/economy.html?.v=12

Hmmm that didn't take long for us to revert to the 2004 numbers. If you hadn't been opening your mouth and spreading this disinformation to wannabe millionaires, we would all be rich right now. They just wanted to live the american dream and drive their H2's. Damn you Housing Panic and those evil facts that you spread!!!

"Hunter" said...

SP, vicous= vicious

Now you're spreading the curse of mispelling to all. Will you not think of the children?!?! Damn you Housing Panic!!!

Anonymous said...

congratulations Keith, you are classified as a terrorist and anti-American. LOL

brokersleaveyoubroke said...

Hey Keith, since that newspaper accused you of doing something wrong, they really should offer you an opportunity to defend yourself in print. You might even hint that their story sounded like libel.
Anyway, you got some free publicity in the MSM.

Robert Coté said...

Terroist? No. History is written by the winners. We winners will label Keith a hero of the successful revolution.

Anonymous said...

I don't understand how can the stock market be "at an all time high" and how can last quarters reports indicate that large ticket item sales were also at an all time high? Can someone explain how housing can be taking a dump (which I can see) while the other facets of the economy are reportedly doing extremely well? This makes no sense. Thanks.

bubble trouble said...

It's quite irritating to here the realtors and the REIC get all worked up and spead the lies they do. On the other hand, though it is simply another indication of the changing trend of the housing bust underway. If all was well with them, we would not here any bickering. They are in the denial and bargaining stages. "No, it can't happen, real estate prices never fall". When you get over the atrocity of their lies, you realize it's actually amusing and sad at the same time, that they are floundering.

bubble trouble said...

If you read the details of the large ticket item stats, you will see that the vast majority of the increase, was produced via purchases of commercial aircraft. It's not an indication of a market prospering. Read one of the articles on it in full.

The markets on the other hand, could be attributed to many things, but it's unfair to speculate intirely. A flight of money out of real estate? Market manipulation due to the upcoming election? A suckers rally, meaning that people get excited and buy in on the way up. Irrational optimism, regarding the ability of the economy to stay afloat during the housing bust? Many it will stick, maybe it won't? I for one, am waiting to see what happens in November.

Anonymous said...

Perhaps that "moron reporter" was actually trying to get out the truth (by directing people to the bubble blogs) while his editors forced him to spew the REIC 'party line'.

Sort of like the low level drone at _Pravda_ getting in his kicks in ways that the apparatchik partybosses were too dumb to notice---but all the people in the know were able to read between the lines.

Anonymous said...

Explanation for this anyone? As I am looking to buy soon, I'd like feedback from this "all is ok" announcement from Reuters...

..."It is hard to say but it looks like we are in for the soft (economic) landing," said Steven Gallagher, chief U.S. economist at Society Generale in New York. "It is telling me that the worst is over for housing.".....

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Thursday the U.S. economy was pulling away from a sharp housing-sector downturn and that the outlook for growth was "reasonably good."

Disgorge! said...

SP, vicous= vicious -- Now you're spreading the curse of mispelling to all.

Download Firefox version 2.0, with built-in spell checker. Literally checks your spelling as you type into these blogs: great!

"Hunter" said...

Thanks Disgorge, it's about time I jump on the Firefox bandwagon. Plus IE is not letting me upload pics to my blog anymore.

Downloading as we speak....

bubble trouble said...

Anon...The job of the government entities is to report that "all is well" until it is beyond debate that "all is not well".

Economists tell the public this because if they were to tell them the truth...reality begates even more reality. Meaning, that the over-extended masses would rush to sell their homes and further push down the market. It is their job to try as best as they can to keep the financial markets stable, not to tell you or the public the truth.

The housing downturn, "housing bust" will only be recognized after the fact. Until then..."all is well".

Anonymous said...

Thanks bubble trouble. As I am looking to buy w/in the next 6 months and I always run my concerns through the blogs 1st. I have a lot more faith in your feedback than what I read in the news, and I have held off buying for quite some time.
Thanks again. Anon. 6:30:33 PM

not buying the bubble said...

This is kindof funny.

As the home sellers start to panic, the bubbleheads start to celebrate.

Almost time to break out the champagne. LOL

Anonymous said...

Economists tell the public this because if they were to tell them the truth...reality begates even more reality. Meaning, that the over-extended masses would rush to sell their homes and further push down the market.
++++++++++++++
True, but the crash will only be worse the longer the lying continues....

Anonymous said...

Nouriel Roubini has pointed out how the same professional bunch totally missed in late 2000 as well.

There was nearly a parallel situation, the economy was still going well (apparently), stocks had come back, and everybody was predicting the "soft landing" and a "fed is done, going to lower rates" bull market.

I remember reading some words somebody else, not a "professional economist", but somebody in the trenches in business, paraphrased as such:

"It's insane to believe that we will unwind from the craziest investment, IPO and stock market bubble in generations with just a 'soft landing'."

As Roubini pointed out, the economy collapsed in a quarter or two. The tech workers felt it 6 months early.

As we know, the *breadth* of the housing bubble is worse, and will take longer to undo. And there's no new bubble to inflate on the other side to take away the pain.

Anonymous said...

Post a link to where Bloodhound Blog called you a treasonous traitor. I can't find it on their site.

Muhammed Saeed al-Sahaf said...

The MSM coverage you've received must surely help your traffic. Interested individuals will have a look. People that examine the data and do a bit of thinking can draw their own conclusions. Perhaps it is easier to for some people to deny that they are HELOCed out, the value of their house is dropping in a most unsatisfactory manner, and soon they will have no money, no place to live, tons of recourse debt, and have to rely on the kindness of strangers to survive.

Anonymous said...

They better be reading this blog and taking it seriously.

I'm as mean and ugly a mofo as they come. 25+ years trial, real estate, bkrptcy law; top 10% in state title insurance writer; licensed broker and auctioneer, ex-receiver for Resolution (anyone know what that was?); 100s of foreclosures under my belt. And I'm a professional trader. Saw it all - bank failures, the fraud, livid borrowers piss and shit the collateral - or take a chainsaw to to it.

I figured in my life the Nas and the housing bubbles were it -- once in a lifetime cash cows. I can't believe I'm going to wet my beak yet again to the downside on this mania.

You people thinking this is going away quietly got another thing coming your way -- me.

Patch Tuesday said...

Keith,

Now that you're famous, do you think Ben may link you on his blog?

Shakster said...

YO Coachella Valley!Hahahhaha.

Anonymous said...

I hope those housing and mortgage stocks tank quickly because I bought a lot of January puts.

Anonymous said...

Word is that Keith and his blog are being added to "The Axis of Evil" list. Cheney is going to invite Keith to go hunting.