Must. Sit. Still. Must. Gather. Thoughts. Must. Not. Fly. Off. Handle. Must. Blog. Rationally.
Ok, I'm ready. Pause. Deep breath.
This article is the lead story (with glamour shot of course) on yahoo.com right now. It's by the kid who won Donald Trump's Apprentice show. She's a realtor, get-rich-quick book author, and self-proclaimed real estate investor. In other words, Donald Trump.
She's given HP our christmas gift early. This, my friends, is the dumbest, most obvious "bookmark this page so we can all have a good laugh in a year" article I've ever read on the housing bubble. She took the gold medal away from sure winner, the corrupt Nicholas Retsinas of Harvard.
Here's the highlights. I was going to take my shots at her, but I'll let you take this one. Fire away HP'ers. And then go flame her book at amazon.com here.
You can't go anywhere without hearing people talk about "the real estate bubble." Such talk drives me to distraction, and I'll tell you why. It's because there is no real estate bubble. Bubbles are for bathtubs.
Despite a thousand articles in Sunday newspaper real estate sections, the bubble is a myth. The real estate markets in many areas are going through a normal correction cycle. I'm going to tell you how to recognize the signs of a correction in your market, how you can avoid getting sucked into "bubble trouble" and how you can even benefit from the current environment.
A bubble is a market in which the value of the key asset is inflated based on speculation and psychology. Talking about a bubble implies a sudden burst, and real estate does not work that way. You don't go to sleep one night with your house worth half a million dollars and wake up to find it's lost half its value.
The Hot Markets
Because real estate is regional there are many "secondary markets" that remain promising. These are usually smaller cities with attractive lifestyles or "feeder" cities that serve larger, overpriced metro areas:
Tucson, AZ
Orlando, FL
Wilmington, NC
Asheville, NC
Santa Fe, NM
Boise, ID
These areas are still affordable, which makes them very attractive.
Kendra Todd is the first and only woman to win Donald Trump's smash hit NBC show, "The Apprentice" on NBC. Additionally, she is Broker of Florida-based MyHouseRE.com, host of the popular HGTV Show "My House Is Worth What?" and a regular real estate contributor on Fox News Live. Her first book "Risk and Grow Rich: How to Make Millions in Real Estate" has been an instant success.
October 02, 2006
Folks, we have a winner. The single dumbest "there is no real estate bubble. Bubbles are for bathtubs" article ever written.
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59 comments:
hmmm....if she is a realtor/broker in florida, then i guess we'll soon see her working at mcdonalds or starbucks to help pay for the leased H2.
keith, glad to see the relaxation thing is working for you.
She's been selling condo conversions as investment opportunities in Florida, Vegas, and Phoenix for the last couple years....definitely a good choice for real estate advice, you numbskull Yahoo editors.
She is going to have hundreds of clients who lose their shirts, clients that she received a commission from, clients that won't be happy when they go bankrupt.
Definitely bookmark this article.
don't pitch the bitch.
Is this really that strange though? I mean it is a woman's logic.
I just read this trash on the Yahoo page. What crap. There is no bubble? Maybe she should have invested millions in Florida, Phoenix, and San Diego condos. She makes tons of money selling this crap to the uniformed and stupid. Wouldn't she make a great consultant? Shame on Yahoo for not researching this crap.
i'd do her
autofx,
What I hear is that she's really into guys who post comments everyday on blogs.... she thinks its the new definition of manly.. she's not into the guys who actually put the work in to create them... just the trolls who haunt them.
I got her number for you.
I-800-MARY-PAL(M)
Enjoy.
uh, where's The Donald's hand?
Everyone's a genius at the peak of a bull market! Why should she be any different?
Nice piece of *ss!
funny every town she puts up as a great investment is actually a bubble town and a HORRIFIC investment
I told you guys strippers were becoming realtors!
I was shocked when I read he self-promoting article. I knew within a few minutes she would be getting ripped apart here.
SPIN OF THE DAY: Bubble and Price Correction are two different things.
I'm dying...
"I told you guys strippers were becoming realtors!"... Hit her contact page and leave one...Did it a few hours and have yet to hear back... :( Myabe I should tell her I have Ones ($1.00)....
What is so wrong with what she is saying?
- The real estate markets in many areas are going through a normal correction cycle.
- The real estate market is a regional phenomenon based on all kinds of factors: migration to or from an area, job growth and local economies.
- There are areas in the U.S. that are experiencing corrections that will continue over the next six to 24 months.
- There are also markets that will appreciate over that same period.
- If you're still thinking you can buy a house, hold it for a year and "flip" it for a 30% profit, you're in for a reality check.
- The most important thing you can do in this real estate environment is avoid panic selling. Hold tight and wait it out, especially if you live in a market that has strong fundamentals, like lots of people still moving to the area.
So?
funny she never mentioned the fundamentals, the historica mean, the negative cash flow, the exotic mortgage debacle, historical manias and panics, or the recent horrific data
guess that's because real estate only goes up and up and up
"What is so wrong with what she is saying?"
Uhhhh..I quote her.. 'There is no bubble. Bubble are for baths'
Is that not enough for you??
Like Bob Toll. Watch what she DOES not what she SAYS.
Is she doubling up on her condo "investments"?
Or is she bailing out and making money in media and celebrity?
Hmmm.....Survey Says???
If I had a million dollars, I'd buy you a green dress. But, not a real green dress.... that's cruel.
twib said...
Now is not the right time to buy. And giving advice to homeowners as "don't sell" is unrealistic as best, and is probably closer to stupid than anything else. Yeah, don't sell your house and everything will be okay. While you are at it, don't get divorced, or take that job out of state, etc.
I bit when Tol was at $28 and you all scream short it short it. I'll bite again here.
Now is the time to buy
A major reason rates are low is a lack of demand. When rates hit their one year low demand will pop up. Rates will pop up. House prices will pop up.
This is the time to buy
I looked further at her business website (www.kendratodd.net)
SHE IS NOT PUTTING DOWN HER OWN CAPITAL FOR INVESTMENTS.
"The concept consists of a wrapping of marketing, sales and financial services in one package to:
1. Create pre-opening purchasing opportunities at below-market pricing for the real estate consumer
2. Provide developers with financially prescreened and qualified purchaers
3. Produce solid and rapid sales in short timeframes.
The marketing and lead-capture methods drive purchasers on a national and international level to profitable preconstruction projects and condo conversions throughout Florida and recently, Las Vegas. "
So, what exactly is her business?
Condoflip.com with chicks.
Right down to stealing "Bubbles are for Bathtubs." When is Kendra's "Panic Button" coming?
Click on "Featured Projects", and what comes up? Nothing. Only thing is there "Great Opportunity for Land Developer".
No wonder Trump lurves her. It's his entire MO: dazzle them with BS, let somebody else take the $$$ hit.
She's no dummy. She's spouting BS for profit: she's selling books, and keeping the tail end of the bubble cash flowing.
Where are these markets with strong fundamentals? Where are these markets that are A) not over-priced in relation to income and B) will not be hit hard by a recession? And come on...Santa Fe. Has anyone ever been to Santa Fe? It is a gorgeous place, first of all...but with no, I mean no freaking jobs other than customer service crap. I think all these naysayers that say small towns will do fine because they are affordable have never lived in a small town. Listen up people! Small towns have lower housing costs because people make less money, a lot less money, they scrape by. It's not rocket science. Why are people so stupid? Why?
Holy Jesus!!!! This is just too predictable!!! Donald Trump has lost at least two fortunes in his life to date, in the late '70s and early '80s and during the early to mid-'90s bust. Are people aware of this?! And he's at it AGAIN!!! He just borrows HUGE amounts of money for one larger-scale project after another, leveraging one to build the next mega-unprofitable project until his cash flow dries up and he goes broke. Then he goes begging to his creditors, collateral securers, and even family members to bail himself out. And Trump is described as a genius!!! At what? Borrowing money he can't pay back, scalping cash flow while it lasts, and then declaring himself insolvent!!!
I think it was Robert Schiller - though I can't find the article - that said "market volatility" was a better word for "bubble" in describing real estate. In defense of my gender - I think she's kind of right that it's not going to pop overnight like a stock bubble can - sadly she leaves out the fact that there is a big gaping hole in the market, and that no one can afford to buy even in an economy that is still supposedly creating jobs and has cheap money. Maybe she can get a job at Walmart. At an $11/hour cap, let's see her try to buy a house and afford healthcare. Better off being an illegal.
full of shit, trumps are nothing but promoters and crooks.
bubble_trouble, amen bro! small towns are typically inhabited by (exceptions, of course) (1) young, uneducated people who can't get out and who survive by working part time and odd or seasonal jobs at poverty-level wages in agriculture, services, etc.; (2) elderly people on fixed incomes with very little dicretionary income and who spend most of their time worrying about how to pay their medical bills; and (3) retirees with more income from pensions and other investments, but they do not add to the capital base but only to consumption. that their income does not grow much, population growth is slow or negative, and there is very little added to the capital base, there is very little growth that occurs.
escaping to small towns for most people will not be a step up but a downshift economically to reduce costs to merely survive. but you aren't going to find culture, high quality medical services, etc. and, if you think you're going to bring suburbia/exurbia with you, then you will defeat the purpose of escaping from high costs.
there is no free lunch; neither are there free lattes.
i'd do her
Q: Who whould u not do?
I'll tell you the secret of how YOU can P.R.O.F.I.T. even in this down market! What? You bought at the peak? No problem. OK, here's the seeecrit...shhhh...Hold onto your house for, ummm...85 years, by which time the next buyers market will come around.
Plus the other half-truths twib et all pointed out.
SHE MAKES MILLIONS, AND SHE IS A HOT KITTY, UNLIKE MOST OF YOU FAILURES HERE!
STOP BITCHING.. GO GET A JOB & START PAYING TAXES RATHER THAN ON WELFARE!
"SHE MAKES MILLIONS, AND SHE IS A HOT KITTY, UNLIKE MOST OF YOU FAILURES HERE!
STOP BITCHING.. GO GET A JOB & START PAYING TAXES RATHER THAN ON WELFARE!"
How do you know she makes millions?
How do you know people on this site are failures?
Please answer me that.
She's 28 years old. She has a Linguistics degree from Univ. of Florida (ok, we know she knows how to talk). Do the math... 4 years for the degree makes her about 22 years old when she launchs out as "America's most successful Realtor". She was 26 when they recorded "Hired". So, with 4 years of real estate experience at the time, she represented the brightest hope for the Trump organization. Now with about 6 years experience, she has become the expert on real estate economics. It's intriguing how much I might learn from such a wise scribe. I know that my 25 years as a commercial real estate broker (not a Realtor), and having gone through oil busts, real estate busts, and the dot com bust is nothing compared to her experience. I must unlearn everything now and listen to this bright young bimb.oh no can't say that here. No. Surely these young brains full of mush are right this time.
Didn't your Momma teach you to listen to your elders young lady?
Thanks for the great story! We linked you over in Seattle. :)
Apparently she hasn't been reading Ben's scientific analysis of the housing bubble...
I read this earlier today and was similarly startled by her boosterish stupidity. Her argument fails because she misapprehends the nature of an asset bubble. No, housing values will not halve overnight. But nor did the NASDAQ - It was a good three years from crest to trough, and that index has only retraced about a third of the 80% meltdown in the three years since bottoming. Ignoring inflation. The housing correction can be expected to be more painful, because relative to stocks, homes are incredibly illiquid. Losses will take years to wash out. Buy a place if you plan on living in it.
Someone stick a D#$% in her mouth.
borkafatty broke into a sweat looking at that photo!
although he was disappointed at that skanky woman blocking his view of the Donald!
Obviously this article underwent extensive editing and wordsmithing by an equally ignorant ghostwriter. In reality, I believe her original draft went something to the effect of: "Bubble? As if! Like, bubbles are for bathtubs, mmmkay? You guys are, like, trying to create some kind of trouble or something. Drrraaammmmaaa!!! Fer sure! So, like, get a life or something. Condo's in Tempe are, like, huh-way cool, so, um, buy one already! They're hot."
they're doing a threesome;kendra, lereah and retsinas, except that retsinas had to take a break every 5 mins. to take his medication since his BP shoots up.
Here's a soul-searching question for "The Apprentice 3" winner Kendra Todd: Might it be time to get over yourself?
The 27-year-old Florida real-estate agent - who had her 15 minutes of fame in May, when Donald Trump picked her to be his his third-season acolyte - seems to have an exaggerated sense of her place in the celebrity food chain.
Lowdown hears that since she was anointed, Todd has ordered her reps to pursue gigs that normally go to A-list celebs, including the MTV Video Music Awards hosting slot - which, incidentally, went to Sean (Diddy) Combs - and a spot on the Sept. 9 six-network Hurricane Katrina telethon alongside such celebs as Cameron Diaz, Jennifer Aniston and Chris Rock.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/gossip/story/358537p-305529c.html
This is want I want -- a dumb bimbo telling me that real estate is still a good investment. She should start her stupid mouth and YAHOO should recognize her for the unsophisticated twit that she is.
Hey, autofx in Phx!
Shut the hell up! Just because some dumb broad can convince you that pigs can fly does not make it true.
"I'll bet she wouldn't give you the time of day!"
As if Keith even gives a f*ck. More sophisticated men are turned off by the dumb Marilyn Monroes of the world.
"She's 28 years old. She has a Linguistics degree from Univ. of Florida (ok, we know she knows how to talk). "
Unfortunately, knowing how to talk without the slightest idea of knowing what you are talking about is what gets rewarded in corporate America today and thus why we are falling down. A dumb bimbo who memorizes a few buzz words but cannot do basic arithmetic catches the eye of the average dumb joe.
"You have to wait many, many years filled with pain just like the Japanese did, she is damn smart and a real student of history, economics "
No. Anyone with an IQ over 80 can read the graphs and charts showing real estate trends. And no one here is claiming that real estate is going to drop 50% overnight. We are criticizing her non-sequitor that prices will continue to escalate becuase they cannot fall very quickly.
Give the teacher a break. I know he’s wrong, you know he’s wrong, but he’s entitled to his opinion… even if he is educating the masses.
I wish the government COULD fix his mess, but I’m afraid not.
Maybe the teacher should take note of the very fine job the government has been doing keeping gasoline prices in line.
I’m a middle-of-the-roader, with both feet firmly planted on both sides; half Liberal and half Conservative. Although, I leaning more and more to the right, as I get older.
thanks for deleting both my posts Keith, you loser/coward
autofx
I wonder if you can really be as stupid as your writings appear?
I hope the fx stands for forex and you do trade because I love taking money from idiots....I will take the other side of your trades any time.....ass.
"you don't go to bed one night with your home value at 500k and wake up and it's now 250k."
no one has contemplated that, even the unbiased economists. if home values "in certain" areas (not all) are say 40% overvalued, it can drop by that much. how long will it take is another question. maybe 2,5 or 10 years, but it is still a crash or a bubble bursting.
she' only got 6 years in her belt but she's already a smart ass. it's like some people who read a book in real estate investing and now considers themselves expert and goes out giving professional advices to clients.
If there's no bubble, then let her put her money where her mouth is.
I believe that we have achieved another new low.
Ask her where she puts her profits and see if the rubber meets the road where her advice is concerned. I'm guessing she is bright enough not to plow her profits back into the stuff she's selling, but who knows, some drug dealers get hooked on their own junk. She's blowing smoke up America's collective ass to make a sale. If her blinded by greed clientele gets the high hard one for the years to come, good for them, they deserve one another.
do you get the idea that maybe The Donald's show just jumped the shark?
Wow, the arrogance! This little punk kid thinks she knows more that Phd's from the London School of Economics. She thinks she knows more that 40 real estate investing pros. She thinks she knows more that Sir John Templeton, George Soros, and Warren Buffett combined. I guess you have to hand it to her though, she gives Trump a run for his money in the egomaniac category.
Here Here!
That should read: '40 YEAR real estate investing pros'
Go Kendra, go Kendra! Pump, pump, pump, pump!
If you go to Amazon, yo will notice ALL the negative reviews of Kendra's book have been removed.
Now it's all "best book ever written - rah-rah housing market - get out and buy a house now."
I have to say I am disappointed in Amazon.
Watch out the list of places she is recommending ... she probably has "investment" in each every one of them.
Well, I can feel her, eh, pain. it goes like this ...
Must. Find. The. Last. Fool.
I just came from AMAZON. THey did remove all the negative comments. WTF!!??? BULLSHIT. Lets all go add some more. Lets flex our bubbleblog muscle.
Kieth,
I really had to laugh at your introduction to this story. If you keep up this kind of humor, you will definitely become the most read real estate blog on the Web (if it is not already). Great work and thanks for for all the amusing and informative reading.
Cheers,
Paul
Absolute Whore!
but that girl is cute!
What a stupid skanky HO!
I LOVE THAT TAG "DO I LOOK FAT IN THIS DRESS."
I come here for comedy.
ROFLMAOAS - rolling on the floor laughing my ass off and s*#t.
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