The Seattle Post-Intelligencer has a realtor do their housing blog and articles. Yup, you got it, a realtor. I guess "post intelligence" as in "after being smart" is very fitting.
Post a reply, and die laughing at the ones already there...
Just Say No to Bubble Talk
As I've said repeatedly, stock market terms do not apply to real estate. There is no real estate bubble and never will be. A decrease in acceleration is not an implosion (or even a pop).
Kendra Todd of the Apprentice has a article on Yahoo Real Estate about the non-bubble. It's a pretty good explanation of what's happening around the country in real estate.
Posted by Susan Ryan
October 04, 2006
Fly winged monkeys - attack! attack! attack! Realtor asks Seattle readers to "Just Say No to Bubble Talk"
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46 comments:
"Just say NO?"
Yea, that will go a long way!
Welcome to Seattle, everyone here believes housing will continue to rise and that we are different than the other west coast cities.
Susan Ryan’s article says that we are having a correction. This is certainly not the first time that I am hearing this term used to describe the drop from the market peak.
It will also be a correction when the market has long bottomed-out and is starting to recover, in 6 to 9 years.
Of course it’s a correction. Things are ‘broken’ (fundamentals). They need correcting or fixing.
I especially liked the point of it being a deceleration in growth, not a drop. This is something the Democrats are good at; calling a smaller increase in spending a “spending cut”. (I just had to throw a little politics in here)
It is truly exasperating to see that every single “non-bubble” author is using old data. Just as they are using the latest data (before it is revised) when comparing to a previous (revised) month’s data.
#halt#, #division by zero#, #crap is crap#
She is right, and here is why:
http://www.bankrate.com/brm/graphs/graph_trend.asp
Mortgage rates are falling like a stone. I wouldn't be surprised if we see record lows by the end of the year. The HP is being short-circuited by the Fed and other central banks. Sorry for that spot of good news.
I am still not convinced that housing prices will drop and that it will happen as a soft or hard landing. I am still seeing houses listed hundreds of thousands more than I think they are worth. They are listed by sellers, realtors and builders - all very expensive. A few small reductions and incentives for a 700,000 home is not convincing that the market is correcting. The prices are still insane, and I think all the wishing and waiting I have been hoping for, is just that. Sorry.
Who gives a shit what the seattle times has to say, it's a local rag FFS.
In the words of "The Mogambo" and I quote "But I am happy to note that the Seattle Times has an affirmative action program in that they hire morons to write for them! Since I have the essential qualification, maybe I can get a job there! Thanks!"
This was in reply to an article they did about oil being $16 by spring!!
As for the "I am still not convinced that housing prices will drop" merchant, all I can say is What price NOLA condos?
anon 11:38:29,
as you are contemplating or wondering why houses are still expensive, have you ever thought of who would be buying those or are able to afford them?
here are few scenarios if no one will buy:
scenario #1: these are the group of homeowners who have enough equity or cash flow that they can jus simply pull their houses off of the market. these are the people who can still afford their mortgage payment. these are the people with stable income or jobs.
scenario #2: these are the many who secured an option ARM or IO and knew that they can no longer afford the payment when their payment resets. these are the people who have little or no equity. these are the people who are in the verge of bankruptcy or foreclosure.
so ask yourself; if your situation falls under scenario #2, what will you do to get rid of your house - fast? i hope your answer will enlighten your confused mind.
Keith the number of trolls that seem to be increasing exponentially is a testament to the excellence of your BLOG!
If you are in the states I welcome you to attend my house warming party somewhere in the LA suburb of San Gabriel Valley.
Of course it will be in 2010 after this bubble has fully deflated!
Plenty of time to RSVP. Cheers!
what is the big wednesday news keith?
last anon.....wednesday has come and gone.....no big news (other than someone says there is no bubble in seattle.....big whoop)
Great find Keith! Not because of how inane the article was - it was certainly inane. But those posted comments were hilarious! Not one person defended this poor, ignorant woman. Her own comment to defend herself was about twice as long as the original article and she still could make no reference to fundamental reasons why there is no bubble. I felt a strange mixture of pity and contempt for her.
I live in a bedroom community of Seattle, everyone here works there. The price's of existing homes has fallen off of a cliff!! Every sign I see says price reduced, and they are. Houses are sitting empty for months, NO ONE is buying!! Unfortunately, I'm selling due to the loss of a good paying job and all I can find are crap jobs. I'm trying to sell and move to a cheaper part of the country, but I'm unable to. I figure a few more months the bank will get my keys in the mail.
Tony
Dudes, there'll be a head and shoulders on this one.
I suspect a slight recovery in housing prices this spring followed by a major slide to oblivion.
I'm still down for maintenance from flying all those combat missions over Phoenix bombing Bloodhound Realty...
That Nancy Reagan tactic only goes so far.
Dammit, if it weren't for you Keith and this Housing Panic mumbo jumbo, realtors would continue to earn 6% or $41,100 per home sale in Lake Forest, CA.
You're just ruining it for everyone!
Some people are just beyond stupid. Like I met a woman yesterday who just refinanced her house that she bought around 10 years ago at around 7% or something. She refied it last week at somewhere around 6% rate.
I asked her why she didn't refi it when rates were very low, and she said she didn't know -- she wasn't paying attention.
???
Come down to South Florida for ground zero. This baby is crashing and burning. Also, you can see monkeys flying out of my Ass.
I say just say no to your Hair dresser.
Nice rug!
Susan Ryan and Kendra Todd.
I think these two are going to ride the housing market downturn good. They're going to ride it hard. They're going to ride that long, hard, protraction all the way, ride it good and hard. Yehaw.
this attitude and spin are the recipe for failure of America.
--This is something the Democrats are good at; calling a smaller increase in spending a “spending cut”. (I just had to throw a little politics in here)--
The one thing I like about the republicans - fiscal discipline - is out the window. Compared to Bush, Clinton was a fiscal conservative. Federal spending has increased a hellish 15% annually under Bush. Good bye fiscal conservatives. Hello borrow and spend conservatives.
I kind of wonder why people still think of tax and spend liberals when they conjure up an image of fiscally irresponsible government. Hey, I dislike the socialist left as much as you, but Republicans have clearly shown they have no interest in fiscal discipline.
Pretty much no where left to turn, I'm afraid.
Anon 3:59,
Regarding fiscal responsibility, has Bush vetoed any bill other than the one proposing more stem cell research?
I read somewhere that he had not used a veto during his tenure until that one arrived.
by the way, the seattle post-intelligencer does publish better articles about the housing bubble.
http://seattlepi.nwsource.com/business/1310AP_Troubled_Housing.html
So no, realtors don't write *all* the real estate articles for this paper.
http://money.cnn.com/2006/10/03/real_estate/moodys_homeforecast/index.htm?postversion=2006100320
Big downturn seen for some home markets
Analysis of 379 metro areas forecasts double-digit declines for nearly 20 markets.
By Lex Haris, CNNMoney.com
October 3 2006: 8:05 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The housing market will get worse before it gets better - that's the finding of an analysis by Moody's Economy.com to be released Wednesday.
In the survey of 379 metro areas, the study's authors concluded that nearly 20 areas eventually could experience a "crash," or a decline of more than 10 percent from peak to trough. The most hard-hit areas will be in California, alongside the Southwest coast of Florida, and in Arizona and Nevada.
In addition to 30 areas already experiencing declines, the study predicts that 70 others will soon experience measurable declines, with drops extending into 2008 and even 2009.
Using a separate analytical approach, the study's authors found that more than 100 markets have a significant probability of experiencing declines by this time next year. The authors considered home affordability, the local job market, supply/demand, and overall values.
Those 100 areas represent nearly half of the country's housing stock. As a result, the authors write, "odds are high that national home prices will decline in 2007; the first decline in nominal national house prices since the Great Depression."
Of the 100 largest markets with forecast declines, Cape Coral, Fla., is forecasted to post the biggest drop in home prices - 18.6 percent from the peak in the fourth quarter of 2005 to the trough in the second quarter of 2007.
Moody's Economy.com forecasts that home prices in Reno, Nev., will drop 17.2 percent by the fourth quarter of 2008.
The authors note that the housing boom has already begun to unwind, driven by the increase in adjustable mortgage rates - putting homes further out of reach of buyers - and the decline in "flippers" who had pushed prices higher hoping for quick sales.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2006-10-04-builder-sell-usat_x.htm
Home builders' CEOs make timely stock sales
Posted 10/4/2006 2:44 PM ET
By Matt Krantz, USA TODAY
Investors hurt by the sharp slide in home-builder stocks might now wish they'd kept a closer eye on what industry executives were doing with their own holdings.
CEOs of three of the top eight U.S. home builders sold large amounts of stock last year and avoided some of the financial pain since the shares peaked, a review of regulatory filings for USA TODAY by Thomson Financial shows.
HOUSING : Forecast: price declines | Mortgage applications rise
Such insider selling, even as the stocks were hitting highs and home builders were pumping out homes, underscores how executives are often the first to react to swift business changes, says Mark LoPresti of Thomson.
Executives often have much of their wealth tied up in their companies and are closely aware of shifts in their industry. They're acquainted not only with their business' health and outlook but also have an acute understanding of the value of their company's shares.
So concentrated selling, or buying, by insiders can be a cue for individual investors. "We don't know for sure what's in the hearts of insiders," LoPresti says. But in his opinion, "It was extreme activity."
It wasn't just the CEOs who sold ahead of a big drop-off in home-building activity. Home-building executives sold 4.8 million shares in July 2005, Thomson says, the largest level of selling since 1990 when it started keeping comparable data.
The selling was well-timed. The eight home builders' shares peaked on July 20, 2005, with a collective gain of 47% for the year, data from Standard & Poor's Capital IQ show. Since then, bad news has buffeted the industry, including a three-year low in housing starts in August. As a group, the stocks are now 41% below their 2005 peak.
Top executives selling include:
•Chad Dreier, CEO of Ryland (RYL), sold stock on Jan. 21, 2005, and by April 2006 had sold 560,000 shares worth $38.3 million. Dreier's sales were made on a predetermined schedule in place for the past five years, says Marya Jones, a Ryland spokeswoman. After the April sale, Dreier still owned 476,916 shares.
Even by July 2005, Dreier still appeared optimistic, saying on a conference call, "We're on track for another record-breaking year." He was right. The company's 2005 net profit jumped 40% to $447.1 million on 22% higher revenue. However, the run ended when net income in the second quarter of 2006 fell 9.1%.
•Bruce Karatz, CEO of KB Home (KBH), sold 950,000 shares worth $76.1 million July 12-13 in 2005. After the sales, he still owned 1,668,070 shares. In a June 2005 press release, Karatz also was upbeat, saying, "Consumer demand ... remains vibrant, fueling strong growth in unit deliveries and selling prices." Results were strong in fiscal 2005, ended in November, when net income jumped 75% to $842.4 million on 34% higher revenue.
But KB also has seen a shift since then. On Sept. 21, the company reported a 53% decrease in fiscal third-quarter home orders in the USA. "Conditions in formerly strong markets ... have weakened considerably in recent months," Karatz said in an accompanying press release. KB declined comment.
•Robert Toll, CEO of Toll Bros. (TOL), sold $110.1 million of stock in February 2005 and reaped $134.1 million more through four sales by July 2005. Toll also didn't seem overly worried at the time.
"Although demand is not as strong as it was one year ago or two, most of our markets remain fundamentally healthy," he said in a Feb. 7, 2005, conference call. Spokesman Frederick Cooper says Toll still owned $1 billion in stock after the sales and owns 16% of the company today.
The company's profit jumped 135% to $170.1 million in the quarter ended April 30, 2005. But results began to flag a year later. Net income fell 19% during the quarter ended July 31, 2006, from the same period in 2005, to $174.6 million.
There's nothing wrong or illegal when a CEO sells company stock, says Todd Henderson, professor at the University of Chicago Law School. Because a vast slice of CEOs' wealth comes from a single company, it's prudent to sell in order to diversify, Henderson says. Other times, CEOs need to raise cash to pay for sudden personal expenses.
Additionally, CEOs, like any other investor, can sell when they think the shares may fall based on publicly available information, Henderson says.
"There can be a ton of reasons why executives may be selling," he says.
Still, some say the timing of the selling in the industry gives reason for pause.
"It's always a question: Is the timing lucky or is there something more?" says Jill Fisch, professor at Fordham Law School.
Republican or Democrat, it doesn't matter to me. I'm a Republican.
What matters to me is Liberal or Conservative. I'm about 50% of each. A little more on the Conservative side, hence the lean towards the Republicans. I've said before that I am in favor of a "safety net" and of "small government".
Wow, what a tool! LOL!!
I bet she's getting desperate, which is why she's spewing out all this bullsh*t.
-Dragasoni-
leave it to a chick to deny reality when there are unpleasant consequences to be had from irrational behavior. how they got the vote is beyond me.
Bubble signs (Boston area)
-- Price-reduced exurb house-for-sale ads. One claimed they are taking $50K loss.
-- Realtor-sponsored education advert in classifieds = sellers are pricing too high.
-- Condo builder of neo-retiree (55 y.o.+) townhouses has sold NONE since starting marketing circa Feb 2006. Can handle the burn rate until next spring, then ??
-- local newspaper-of-record real estate foreclosure notices run 4-5 pages. The exurbs and rural areas are always the first to take the hit and they are being hit lethally hard.
if I buy one of those condo's can I have a free one year supply of cheese and wine for all my imaginary friends to come and enjoy (and some geeky dark framed glasses to make me look smarter would be nice too!)?
Everyone in Portland also believes that housing will continue to rise and that they are different than any city in the country and will thus escape the downturn.
The central banks that own our asses have flooded the market with dough, and soon they will start the process of reducing the market by limiting the amount of money and making it harder to get loans. Our "business cycle" will go down again before it goes up. Thats just how it is. Frankly I'm suprised they had the balls to allow this amount of money to go into circulation in the first place.
The bottom line is in this Real Estate market everybody picks the factoids they want to justify what they want to happen, not what will likely happen.
So one guy who has a house in Issaquah was telling me because of Boeing and Microsoft, Seattle will never crash, and will keep seeing 20% increases for the foreseeable future.
He's p*ssed off at people who don't buy houses because he says they're the ones responsible for the housing slide.
(He bought on an ARM in early 2005 and has already seen a 20% price increase on his home).
Except he says now that 2 properties close by have been on the market now for about 4 months with no sale. So the comps might have changed somewhat. ;)
Isn't the average education level of a realtor a high school diploma? Enough said.
"isn't the average education level of a realtor a high school."
you're right about that and what gets me is that they seem to know everything or has an answer for everything. i remember once when a realtor was showing me some numbers which were clearly rehearsed. by playing dumb, i tested her by asking or probing how did she arrived to that number. i tell you she was fumbling and just simply got lost.
what a smart ass. that's why i don't listen to them.
p.s. i have a degree in civil engineering and some units towards mba.
susan and suzanne - the dumb and the dumber of real estate.lol
-- p.s. i have a degree in civil engineering and some units towards mba. --
so you're saying you're only slightly less intelligent than your typical civil engineer?
;) sorry, had to go for it.
anon 1:43:32 wrote:
"...you're only slightly less intelligent than your typical civil engineer?"
yes - because i don't pretend i know everything and if i don't, i ask, even though i've got 25 years around my belt.
furthermore, i do my homework, thoroughly and meticulously study the details before i get into something (i.e.real estate investment) However, for people who pretend to know everyhting even though they've just started "yesterday," i've got no respect for them.
Anon 3:55:59 AM
Guess the joke didn't go over too well. You know civil engineer = smart, civil engineer going for an MBA = slightly less smart... dumb yourself down to get into management... eh, I guess it wasn't all that funny.
NYC cop-
Yes. Manhattan is going down. Upper East Side 1 bedroom very nice building, very nice neighborhood, went on the market for 750K last spring. Just sold for 515K.
New comps for the building. Til the next lowball sale that is.
Chin up! It's happening!
These Seattle realtors are a scream. We're in the top 5 nationally for toxic loans.
So what do they do with that disturbing bit of information?
Big article in the Sunday paper claiming that toxic loans aren't all that bad.
We'll be just fine here. No foreclosures in Seattle. Those comps will stay bubblicious.
Seattle also has one of the highest rates of "price reduced" properties. That came out a few weeks ago. Nobody mentioned it.
All they can talk about is Boeing and MS. Meanwhile, Boeing engineers can't afford to buy here, let alone a lowly MS techie.
WAMU just laid off over 100 people from the home loan department in Seattle today. That makes over 1000 Seattle WAMU layoffs this year.
Reality will hit and hit hard. Feel sorry for the nincompoop in Issaquah that the above poster mentioned. The one who bought this year.
You can be a realtor without a HS diploma.
The ONLY good realtor I ever had was a guy who got his GED in his 40's. Well after he'd become a realtor.
He was HONEST and THOUGHTFUL and listened to what I wanted and then found it for me. It wa a miracle cuz what i was looking for was pretty pie in the sky.
He looked for months, never tried to talk me out of my fantasy or sell me something I didn't want.
When he found it, we jumped right on it. Along with a long line of other people behind me. I was first in line cuz of this guy.
The people behind me overbid but he talked to the sellers and got me the house anyway, at their asking price, no higher. He worked out some concessions with them that had nothing to do with money:I agreed to let their kids continue renting one of the apts. at their low low price for for several months. It was a deal I was more than happy to live with. Brilliant negotiater who made both sides happy.
He was a total gem and tons of common sense and street smarts.
I'm sure, if he's still selling houses, he tells his clients the market is preparing to take a major dump so they can take that into consideration.
I have nothing but contempt for these slimeball realtors.
Just believe.
p.s. - Republican Family Values: put a pederast in charge of protecting kids from internet predators. Then cover for him.
Republican Money Smarts - shoot the wad on Iraq, invest nothing in alternative energy while oil runs out. Blow the budget.
Republicans Taking Care of People: allow them to bake on top of a roof in flooded New Orleans for three days without water (the greatest nation on Earth can't find some bottled WATER!) while an unqualified idiot worries about whether his poochie will be fed while he's away and how he looks on television. BTW - FEMA was doing great as organized in part by my Babs McCulsky, a Democrat from Maryland.
How DARE you criticize the other side of the aisle? SHAME on people who voted for Bush the second time, when his ass was already showing. I'll personally deliver up that order of Humble Pie for all of you. Here's a better idea - can it on liberals and Democrats, it just makes you sound like a fool.
I'll bet she's a Republican, because that is the party of Denial.
Republican Science: refute Evolution, try to have it taken out of the cirriculum. Deny Global Warming; mothball research satellites and use a twenty-something twit to gag scientists.
Republican Homeland Security: ignore intelligence reports that say war is the A#1 way to create more and more and more terrorists as fast as possible (which we already knew). Stay the course and hope it (civil war in Iraq) will all somehow go away.
Republican policy on immigration: put up a chain link fence and some video cams along [some of] the immense border between U.S.A. and Mexico. Give me a pickup truck, a BB gun, a wire cutter and about 10 minutes, and we'll see how well THAT works. Indicative of lack of deep thinking, pushing a complex problem under the rug, and appealing to the lowest common denominator.
Republican stewardship of the Constitution: suspend Habeus Corpus. Tap the entire population's phone, internet, library, and banking activities without consent or warrant or just cause. Throw in a little torture (another tactic which is of questionable utility, even if it were legal, which it is not).
Pardon me, I forgot: liberals and Democrats are the unrealistic ones. This blog is about shedding denial and facing the reality of unsustainable real estate prices and yet another Ponzi scheme. Seems to me there is an entire range of areas where some people need to apply the same thinking. Dems have their problems, standing by and letting all this happen chief among them - I just can't believe the high-and-mighty attitude of the Repub trolls that keep popping up here. At least say "a plague on all their houses" and vote them all out.
p.s. - the flag and the bald eagle belong to all of us. Got that?
anon 4:28:39,
i got the joke now. that was good, but wait a minute; are you trying to imply something that people with mbas are what you said they are? well i don't blame you for the impression given, especially when people like lereah, retsinas and others are the products of the prestigious degree.
M-Baaaaa .... master of sheep.
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