I know most folks don't read papers, don't watch the news, and go through life rather clueless. But good god, you'd have to be an OJ-Simpson-juror-caliber person to have missed the housing meltdown articles, stats, commentary and talk the past few months.
"Forget the facts, fundamentals and panic - let's go out and buy a house today!" I don't think so...
Here's another one from Florida - which when all is said and done I believe will be more devastated by the collapse of the housing ponzi scheme than all the hurricanes of the past 20 years combined.
Housing prices are getting more attention these days than the Iraq war, Florida Republican Rep. Mark Foley’s follies and, heaven forbid, even Bucs QB Chris Simms’ spleen.
Maybe they should. Most Floridians — actually, most Americans — have the vast majority of their personal worth tied up in their homes. So when that value stops growing, starts to look vulnerable or even starts shrinking, people need to turn off the TV and focus.
That’s not easy. The sheer volume and range of housing data, experts’ dire warnings, pro-housing Pollyannas and Realtor hysteria combine for a strange brew and plenty of indigestion.
According to one particular type of market analysis conducted by Economy.com, a belt of Gulf Coast metro areas from Sarasota in the north to Naples in the south better brace for some dramatic drops in housing prices.
It’s only natural since these are the same speculative-investing, hot-spot cities that enjoyed surreal runups in home prices in the past five years.
October 11, 2006
Florida columnist: Home values on the way down. HP: You better believe it, and much more than you think
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19 comments:
Load up on WCI and KBH puts. They are going BK within 6 months.
KB Homes only has $400 million left on their Line of Credit!!!
Our calculations show they will burn through that in about 3 months. However, given they are in default on their earnings statement they will not be able to borrow anymore.
They could be in bankruptcy by the 1st of the year.
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/7...
ht
Liquidity and Capital Resources.
We fund our business activities with cash flows generated from our operations
and from debt financing, including through the issuance of publicly-traded notes
and by entering into credit agreements to borrow funds from banks and other
financial institutions. Currently, our primary credit agreement is a $1.5
billion unsecured revolving credit facility (the “$1.5 Billion Credit
Facility”), which allows us, from time to time and subject to certain conditions
precedent, to draw funds as needed to support our business. As of October 10,
2006, we had $600.0 million of outstanding borrowings under our $1.5 Billion
Credit Facility and $487.0 million of outstanding letters of credit, leaving us
with $413.0 million of available capacity.
The delayed filing of our Third Quarter 10-Q may impair our ability to
raise external financing to support our business. The delayed filing of the
Third Quarter 10-Q will cause us to not be current in our filings required under
the Exchange Act which will prevent us from using a Form S-3 registration
statement for the public offering of new debt or equity securities until we have
filed the Third Quarter 10-Q and have been current in our filings of all other
required Exchange Act reports for a period of 12 months.
In addition, the delayed filing of the Third Quarter 10-Q and the
unavailability of third quarter financial statements may result in a default
under the indentures governing our senior and senior subordinated notes and our
credit agreements. As a result of such
delay or unavailability, we may be unable to obtain additional borrowings under
our $1.5 Billion Credit Facility. If uncured, such delay or unavailability could
also result in acceleration of repayment of our currently outstanding
indebtedness. We do not know if any indenture trustee, administrative agent of
any of credit agreements or creditor will assert that the delayed filing of our
Third Quarter 10-Q or the unavailability of our third quarter financial
statements constitutes a default in the performance of these agreements.
However, because our indentures and credit agreements contain cross-default and
cross-acceleration provisions, if any indenture trustee, administrative agent,
creditor or group of creditors were to be successful in claiming we had
defaulted and we did not cure such default within the grace period available, we
would be required to seek a waiver or amendment, to refinance all or part of our
existing debt and/or to pay fees or penalties, which, individually or in
combination, may have a materially adverse effect on our liquidity.
Historically, we have generated greater cash flows from our business
operations in our fiscal fourth quarter relative to other quarters because we
make a proportionately greater number of unit deliveries in that period. We
currently anticipate that our 2006 fourth quarter will be consistent with our
historical experience and, in conjunction with a planned reduction in investment
in land inventory in the fourth quarter relative to the prior periods of the
year, we believe, subject to the foregoing, that we will have sufficient
resources to meet our current business needs.
That is big, Keith completely missed it as well. How many more builders are going to go under?
The runaway property taxes in Florida are a major part of the problem. If you are a new buyer in parts of Florida of a median price home, you pay $400 a month in property taxes! I say again: four hundred dollars a MONTH!
If you have owned your home for a while you are somewhat protected by the Save our Homes act where, since 1992, your property taxes can increase no more than 3 percent a year. If you are a new buyer of a home, your tax basis is the bubble price you paid for your home, ergo $400 a month for a median size home.
Also, the homstead exemption of 25k enacted in 1981 when it exempted 50 percent property value of the median homefrom taxation now only exempts ten percent of median value of homes. The homestead exemption needs to be raised to 125K to match the value it had in 1981.
Any non homesteaded property that doesnt have an ag exemption is really in trouble. For instance vacant lots, raw land without an ag exemption, or business property. I personally know of cases where the taxes on a building lot jumped 300 percent this last year!
The greedy County Tax mafia knows that a tax revolt is comming therefore they have actually lowered the taxes on the Save our Homes residents and stuck the rest hoping to devide the tax payers on the issue of tax reform.
"OJ-Simpson-juror-caliber"
hmmmm....
last anon - did that seem like a racist remark - i kinda thought so myself.
No, he's calling them out on being three brain cells shy of vegetative, not black.
Yes please be hypersensitive to every remark that even slightly criticizes a "protected class". It does not matter how true the remark is because it is your ability to be sensitive to it is really what matters. Freedom of speech must take a back seat to Political Correctness. Hey its the morally right thing to do.
And they say the born again christians are trying to force a moral agenda!
Got news for you: Hypersensitivity is a form of aggression. The more you use it the less effective it becomes and the sooner you lose your status as a protected class. So please keep on using every arrow in your quiver.
seriously, I have no memory if the OJ jurors were black or white or green. Anyone know?
What I do remember is that they hadn't heard OJ killed his wife, or formed an opinion
In other words, clueless out of touch dimwits
The jurors then wrote a book! Jury nullification lead to a profit...
Where was the outrage?
I think "Dumb as an O.J. juror" is catching on as an easily recognizable alternative to 'clueless'
WACAHOOTAMAN
Thanks for the info on FL. A minor correction if you please.
The "Save Our Homes" law was enacted in 1995 not 1992, minor point. More importantly, taxes $400 per month? That's chicken feed!! A $500,000 house which is not uncommon in a newer subdivision, would have taxes of about $8,000 after the $25,000 homestead exemptions.
The rest of your information is quite correct. Don't forget about Insurance.............could be as high as $10,000 to $15,000 per year if you are on the water!!
All of these factors along with greedy pricing is making the FL housing market crash.
6-9 months ago a typical house like mine was selling for $375 to $400,000. One just sold for $330,000.
"Speaking the raw truth is the mark of strong individuality and is rare.
Ketih is in the latter category."
Do you suck his dick too??
"I think "Dumb as an O.J. juror" is catching on as an easily recognizable alternative to 'clueless' "
Try that shit anywhere here and in ANON mode-
then report back to me what happens fool - in fact try that shit in Compton.
Freak'n bad ass key board warriors. You guys are pathetic.
Keith, You need to start deleting richards comments. He's bringing this blog to the bottom of the barrel all buy his self. Just erase his name completly. How many arguments can he have with everybody before you pull the plug on him?
"Keith, You need to start deleting richards comments. He's bringing this blog to the bottom of the barrel all buy his self. Just erase his name completly. How many arguments can he have with everybody before you pull the plug on him?"
Fuck off
Richard is experiencing the reality of a protected class losing its protection. Like those who lost money in the housing bubble these people will be exhibiting a high degree of anger.
Unlike those in the housing bubble though all these folks have to do is take the chip off their shoulder and stop acting like they are entitled to something. Its easy friend...hope you join us.
"Richard is experiencing the reality of a protected class losing its protection. "
One word
ignorance.
See keith and I agree on this - the difference is he cannot see the forest through the trees...like you.
see - the crash of the housing market - ain't even a zit on the ass of the big picture but keefer and you and others think this is the greatest story ever told.
wrong again.
google peak oil.
then read Catton's book Overshoot.
These are the greatest stories ever told, but you won't and you will continue to label those who know the truth as conspiracy theorist - like somehow that label changes the truth.
MUST RACE TO THE TAX PROTEST SITE, THIS SHIT IS EVERYWHERE, ONLY HATE, WILL STOP ME,
THOUGH TO BUY QUALITY STOCK, IN PANIC, IS THE ONLY WAY TO MAKE, OR LOOSE A BUCK
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