October 10, 2006

Analyst: "October 2006 is potentially the most dangerous, risky month in modern history"


Some REALLY interesting insights (similar to many HP'ers I must say) from the respected Harry Schultz Letter:

Historically, October has been the month-of-choice for major stock market crashes. I've been moderately bullish on U.S. stocks, but the S&P 500 chart is in a bearish rising wedge. Not much left to go; make or break in October.

Nasdaq is stronger, but is possibly in a year 2000-type blow-off stage. History repeats? Dotcoms caused the 2000 NAS blow-off. Will the Aug.-Sept. bursting of the housing bubble cause the Oct 2006 NAS blow-off? ...If US stocks fall, world will follow.

October 2006 is potentially the most dangerous, risky month in modern history. That's mostly because U.S. elections come on Nov 7. Geopolitically, the U.S. is bound like Gulliver ... Its military is stretched to a danger point and its mostly bumbling politicians (red & blue) are unable to escape the clutches of two losing and unwinnable wars ... literal tar pits.

That makes the following otherwise-illogical moves as logical possibilities in October, when Washington would be acting or failing to act, for election reasons.

Schultz' list of possible October moves naturally leads with an attack on Iran by the U.S. and or Israel. Other possibilities include: Russia invading Abkhazia and South Ossetia; a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or the Spratly Islands; a North Korean "mega missile test" or attack on South Korea; a coup d'tat in Pakistan. Because of U.S. overstretch and distraction, he writes, "October is a free pass month for wild/risky moves"

Schultz says we're "poised between dramatic inflation and shocking deflation (short term?), either of which can come suddenly ... unprecedented debt vs. record-breaking money creation makes the situation explosive, able to go either way almost overnight."

55 comments:

Anonymous said...

Just a matter of time if not October then right after the elections in November

Anonymous said...

No doubt.....

Anonymous said...

Inflation versus deflation exactly what has been argued here

Interesting

Anonymous said...

Yawn,

If I had a nickel for every "end-of-the-world-is-nigh" prediction by the goldbugs, I'd have enough money to buy ten American Gold Eagles!!!

Sorry to be the one to tell you gang, but TPTB are SOOOOOO in control of the mindless sheeple, that even AFTER hyperinflation, massive deflation, or all of the above, the sheeps will continue to be herded into their little pens by the government, banksters, and Wall Street.

Just look at Russia, Argentina, and the Asian countries who have all experienced complete economic collapse in the last eight years or so. Do you see any major changes there? Do you see a gold standard? Do you see no fiat currency? No fractional reserve lending? No central banking?

I didn't think so.

Furthermore, how many sheeple do you know that actually cashed out their 401(k) even AFTER the great stock market bust of 2000-2002?

Therefore, don't hold your breath waiting for positive changes here in the U.S.

Rather, look for more and more government intrusion into your affairs, tighter control over your money and lives and less and less freedom.

Roccman said...

With numbers like these whether October or not it should not be a suprise....that is of course if one believes oil rules monetary and political policy:

Here are the numbers I find for World Oil Supply for the period January 2005 to July 2006:

2005
January 83,863
February84,187
March 84,269
April 84,598
May 84,793
June 84,679
July 84,385
August 84,424
September 83,790
October 83,673
November 84,625
December 84,766
2006
January 84,331
February 84,318
March 83,907
April E 84,006
May 83,841
June 84,102
July 85,031

When I add up January to July for 2005 I get 590,774. For 2006 I get 589,535.

And for the difference I get -1,239.

Anonymous said...

Someone please hijack this:

http://slcrealestate.blogspot.com/

Roccman said...

Dave S

With a handle like "Salt Lake Mortgage Guy " that article you linked above is nothing more than BS.

He's in for a REALLY big Suprise.

Anonymous said...

Uncle Harry is always a good read.

Bill said...

this only adds fuel to the fire check this out:

Home foreclosures soar in US

The social impact of the bursting of the US housing market is already being registered in a sharp increase in home foreclosures. In August, the foreclosure rate rose a staggering 53 percent over the same period a year ago. In Michigan, Ohio, and other states hard hit by mass layoffs in manufacturing, the impact has been particularly severe.

In August, ***115,292*** new properties were listed on the database of online foreclosure tracker RealtyTrac

http://tinyurl.com/esp5n


07 is the going to have the Big bang effect bigtime.

Roccman said...

"53 percent over the same period a year ago"

Crap!!

Bill said...

It is clear that job cuts, energy-driven inflation—and the higher interest rates imposed by the Federal Reserve to keep inflation in check—are compounding the pressure felt by working Americans. Yet the painful consequences of this reality find no meaningful reflection in media coverage, the political campaigns of major party candidates, or federal policy. On the contrary, the decline in the housing market has been characterized as a temporary “price correction.” This euphemism is in part calculated to contain panic and prevent a mass sell-off before housing values decline further.


Ya right euphemism IE: BLINDERS!

Bill said...

In my opinion the economy's prospects for a proverbial soft-landing is quickly diminishing (hell I never believed in a soft-landing). And I believe that various contagions heading forward will certainly weigh-heavily on the indexes this year a few of which are…topping corporate profits, a stretched, over-extended business cycle, lackluster earnings guidance, weak economic data points, a continuing weakening jobs market, a turn around in energy costs after the election and or ballooning “Twin-Deficits” and I can go on and on.

There's a lot of money coming into the markets from some where and its not from investing activities....so where is the liquidity being generated from?....we know the money supply is up (and thanks to the FOMC we don't know exactly how much they have been inflating the M-3, which specifically measures the Fed's activities with money supply as they have stopped reporting on their market manipulating activities). This easy money that they inject into the main stream makes it into the banking system through their primary dealers which are the major brokerage houses that are making most of their profits lately by trading the markets with the Fed’s easy-inflated money infusions. I would love to be a primary fed-manipulator as those with large brokerage houses with trading teams (that so often take opposite positions than the positions they are placing their clients in) are basically embroiled in an almost "risk-free" trading environment. If they see a lot of Fed money coming in the stream, they simply take on some easy leverage on their considerable trading capital and make huge bets that pay off nicely; and if for some reason the Fed withdraws liquidity these large very liquid teams sell short, buy puts, and make money on the ride down (enough said on this manipulation, and what I believe is insider illegal trading ).

FSU:

Anonymous said...

I just wonder how long it will take the smoking hot printing presses to cause hyper-inflation. I wonder how much they are really printing?

Anonymous said...

wall of worry
wall of worry
wall of worry
wall of worry



stocks climb a wall of worry

TOL upgraded

Roccman said...

Bork - nice!!

A voice of reason that has taken the time to connect the dots.

Anonymous said...

Hey October crash believers....sell short all your cash then!

Didn't think so

Roccman said...

I told u

Crash YES

October crash maybe

Savvy??

Anonymous said...

Hey October crash believers....sell short all your cash then!

-----------

10 days into October, we still have 21 days left, we shall see what the remaining month has to offer. But do yourself a favor dont buy into the mainstream media aproach to things you may come up short and find yourself standing on a street corner with a plastic cup begging for spare Change.

Anonymous said...

Bubble Meter Kudo's For HP!

BubbleSphere Roundup

Keith's Housing Panic Blog has two wonderful post attacking the REIC (Real Estate Industrial Complex. Realogy (owner of Century 21 etc) launches housing bubble propaganda counter-attack and another post one attacking the fully discredited David Lereah. "It's been amazing (and funny) to see the corrupt David Lereah spin lately. Now he's a the "we've been anticipating a price correction" stage of lying." It is impressive how often Keith posts on his blog.

Anonymous said...

Yes, the October surprise is coming! The world will hold its collective breath when Bush addresses the nation in prime time on 10/30 and discloses shocking new intelligence about North Korea.

Discovery by the CIA of can openers in use in multiple NK cities will send the markets reeling and Dems running for cover.

Anonymous said...

where is all the $$ coming from to push the market to record levels? i for one work in an office of 65 people, no body has spare $4 to put into the market, heck with insurance rates climbing 100% there is no money left over.

smells fishy

the ike carrier group will not be in the persian gulf until oct 16 ish.

Anonymous said...

lol

Your favorite stock to pick on is up over 5% today...

Is it October yet?

Bill said...

where is all the $$ coming from to push the market to record levels? i for one work in an office of 65 people, no body has spare $4 to put into the market, heck with insurance rates climbing 100% there is no money left over.

smells fishy
-------------------

Something most certinaly stinks, as with the above reference tword $4 I had a guy in front of me this morning while i was Buying a coffee(an Electrician from the shirts they were wearing)
He said to his Partner in crime, and I quote..

"If we dont get a check from that so&so this week I dont know how I am going to pay my bills this month..no bullshit.

Roccman said...

MY FAVORITE -

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

************************************************************************************************

We will not have any more crashes in our time."
- John Maynard Keynes in 1927

"I cannot help but raise a dissenting voice to statements that we are living in a fool's paradise, and that prosperity in this country must necessarily diminish and recede in the near future."
- E. H. H. Simmons, President, New York Stock Exchange, January 12, 1928
"There will be no interruption of our permanent prosperity."
- Myron E. Forbes, President, Pierce Arrow Motor Car Co., January 12, 1928


"No Congress of the United States ever assembled, on surveying the state of the Union, has met with a more pleasing prospect than that which appears at the present time. In the domestic field there is tranquility and contentment...and the highest record of years of prosperity. In the foreign field there is peace, the goodwill which comes from mutual understanding."
- Calvin Coolidge December 4, 1928

"There may be a recession in stock prices, but not anything in the nature of a crash."
- Irving Fisher, leading U.S. economist , New York Times, Sept. 5, 1929

"Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau. I do not feel there will be soon if ever a 50 or 60 point break from present levels, such as (bears) have predicted. I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher within a few months."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in economics, Oct. 17, 1929
"This crash is not going to have much effect on business."
- Arthur Reynolds, Chairman of Continental Illinois Bank of Chicago, October 24, 1929

"There will be no repetition of the break of yesterday... I have no fear of another comparable decline."
- Arthur W. Loasby (President of the Equitable Trust Company), quoted in NYT, Friday, October 25, 1929

"We feel that fundamentally Wall Street is sound, and that for people who can afford to pay for them outright, good stocks are cheap at these prices."
- Goodbody and Company market-letter quoted in The New York Times, Friday, October 25, 1929


"This is the time to buy stocks. This is the time to recall the words of the late J. P. Morgan... that any man who is bearish on America will go broke. Within a few days there is likely to be a bear panic rather than a bull panic. Many of the low prices as a result of this hysterical selling are not likely to be reached again in many years."
- R. W. McNeel, market analyst, as quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929
"Buying of sound, seasoned issues now will not be regretted"
- E. A. Pearce market letter quoted in the New York Herald Tribune, October 30, 1929

"Some pretty intelligent people are now buying stocks... Unless we are to have a panic -- which no one seriously believes, stocks have hit bottom."
- R. W. McNeal, financial analyst in October 1929


"The decline is in paper values, not in tangible goods and services...America is now in the eighth year of prosperity as commercially defined. The former great periods of prosperity in America averaged eleven years. On this basis we now have three more years to go before the tailspin."
- Stuart Chase (American economist and author), NY Herald Tribune, November 1, 1929
"Hysteria has now disappeared from Wall Street."
- The Times of London, November 2, 1929

"The Wall Street crash doesn't mean that there will be any general or serious business depression... For six years American business has been diverting a substantial part of its attention, its energies and its resources on the speculative game... Now that irrelevant, alien and hazardous adventure is over. Business has come home again, back to its job, providentially unscathed, sound in wind and limb, financially stronger than ever before."
- Business Week, November 2, 1929

"...despite its severity, we believe that the slump in stock prices will prove an intermediate movement and not the precursor of a business depression such as would entail prolonged further liquidation..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES), November 2, 1929


"... a serious depression seems improbable; [we expect] recovery of business next spring, with further improvement in the fall."
- HES, November 10, 1929
"The end of the decline of the Stock Market will probably not be long, only a few more days at most."
- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics at Yale University, November 14, 1929

"In most of the cities and towns of this country, this Wall Street panic will have no effect."
- Paul Block (President of the Block newspaper chain), editorial, November 15, 1929

"Financial storm definitely passed."
- Bernard Baruch, cablegram to Winston Churchill, November 15, 1929


"I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism... I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress."
- Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury December 31, 1929

"I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence."
- Herbert Hoover, December 1929

"[1930 will be] a splendid employment year."
- U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year's Forecast, December 1929


"For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright."
- Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

"...there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over..."
- Harvard Economic Society (HES) Jan 18, 1930

"There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about."
- Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, Feb 1930

"The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern...American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity."
- Julius Barnes, head of Hoover's National Business Survey Conference, Mar 16, 1930
"... the outlook continues favorable..."
- HES Mar 29, 1930


"... the outlook is favorable..."
- HES Apr 19, 1930

"While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst -- and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us."
- Herbert Hoover, President of the United States, May 1, 1930
"...by May or June the spring recovery forecast in our letters of last December and November should clearly be apparent..."
- HES May 17, 1930

"Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over."
- Herbert Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930


"... irregular and conflicting movements of business should soon give way to a sustained recovery..."
- HES June 28, 1930

"... the present depression has about spent its force..."
- HES, Aug 30, 1930

"We are now near the end of the declining phase of the depression."
- HES Nov 15, 1930

"Stabilization at [present] levels is clearly possible."
- HES Oct 31, 1931

"All safe deposit boxes in banks or financial institutions have been sealed... and may only be opened in the presence of an agent of the I.R.S."
- President F.D. Roosevelt, 1933

Bill said...

OH! And forgot to mention this my brother inlaw stopped by last night so i could fix hs son's computer, and he said the builder he super's for is shutting down and told hime he should probally look for a new job, as he doubts there will be call backs.

They owe the landscaper of the project $65,000 and are scurring away to find the funds to pay the guy..who has not had a payment form them..in a month and a half. This does not even count the back log of sub-contractors they still owe..he said it is a friggin mess.

Oh and no sales 55+ community..15 units ...EMPTY!

Anonymous said...

GTG, Bush is on FOX.

Anonymous said...

Wondering where all the money comes from to keep the stocks high? Has anyone destroyed the money that Alan pumped into the economy? It is now just in other hands.

Anonymous said...

The author of this article, Chris Hedges, wrote the book 'War is a Force that Gives Us Meaning.'

Bush’s Nuclear Apocalypse
by Chris Hedges

The aircraft carrier Eisenhower, accompanied by the guided-missile cruiser USS Anzio, guided-missile destroyer USS Ramage, guided-missile destroyer USS Mason and the fast-attack submarine USS Newport News, is, as I write, making its way to the Straits of Hormuz off Iran. The ships will be in place to strike Iran by the end of the month. It may be a bluff. It may be a feint. It may be a simple show of American power. But I doubt it.

War with Iran—a war that would unleash an apocalyptic scenario in the Middle East—is probable by the end of the Bush administration. It could begin in as little as three weeks. This administration, claiming to be anointed by a Christian God to reshape the world, and especially the Middle East, defined three states at the start of its reign as “the Axis of Evil.” They were Iraq, now occupied; North Korea, which, because it has nuclear weapons, is untouchable; and Iran. Those who do not take this apocalyptic rhetoric seriously have ignored the twisted pathology of men like Elliott Abrams, who helped orchestrate the disastrous and illegal contra war in Nicaragua, and who now handles the Middle East for the National Security Council. He knew nothing about Central America. He knows nothing about the Middle East. He sees the world through the childish, binary lens of good and evil, us and them, the forces of darkness and the forces of light. And it is this strange, twilight mentality that now grips most of the civilian planners who are barreling us towards a crisis of epic proportions.

Roccman said...

An attack on Iran will ignite the Middle East. The loss of Iranian oil, coupled with Silkworm missile attacks by Iran on oil tankers in the Persian Gulf, could send oil soaring to well over $110 a barrel. The effect on the domestic and world economy will be devastating, very possibly triggering a huge, global depression. The 2 million Shiites in Saudi Arabia, the Shiite majority in Iraq and the Shiite communities in Bahrain, Pakistan and Turkey will turn in rage on us and our dwindling allies. We will see a combination of increased terrorist attacks, including on American soil, and the widespread sabotage of oil production in the Gulf. Iraq, as bad as it looks now, will become a death pit for American troops as Shiites and Sunnis, for the first time, unite against their foreign occupiers.

The country, however, that will pay the biggest price will be Israel. And the sad irony is that those planning this war think of themselves as allies of the Jewish state. A conflagration of this magnitude could see Israel drawn back in Lebanon and sucked into a regional war, one that would over time spell the final chapter in the Zionist experiment in the Middle East. The Israelis aptly call their nuclear program “the Samson option.” The Biblical Samson ripped down the pillars of the temple and killed everyone around him, along with himself.

If you are sure you will be raptured into heaven, your clothes left behind with the nonbelievers, then this news should cheer you up. If you are rational, however, these may be some of the last few weeks or months in which to enjoy what is left of our beleaguered, dying republic and way of life.

Anonymous said...

The Eisenhower navel battalion did deploy on 10/3 with a heading to Iraq. Iran could be Rove's October Surprise.

Conspiracy theory ok we all know NK does not have a missle capable of making it to the united states. China is really embroiled in this whole mess. lets say, A missle is fired, from china who intern will blame north korea,But in reality it is china sending a message to the US backoff on Iran. in the intrum the United states levels Iran with a few Nukes. Far fetched ehh maybe ..

Happy Halloween

Anonymous said...

Richard, that group of quotes is priceless. They kinda make me want to go into an "anti-semetic" tirade however. Its a shame Roosenfelt never got the punishment he deserved.

Anon 7:28, that's a nice little piece there. I just can't see how we Americans can collectivly stand by and let these jews in our government lay waste to all of israels enemies in our name though. I mean, Bush is either insane, or has severe brain damage from his partying days, thats clear to everyone. But, the guys who dictate foriegn policy up there in the D.istrict of C.riminals are the ones I feel are responsible for what is going on today. These guys all have one thing in common, I should'nt need to say it again.

Roccman said...

http://tvnewslies. org/html/ if_you_are_ not_afraid_ __.html

If You're Not VERY Afraid
You Haven't Been Paying Attention!

An Alert from TvNewsLIES.org - October, 2006

THE BAD NEWS

In late September, The Nation magazine reported that the Pentagon had
"moved up the deployment of a major "strike group" of ships, including
the nuclear aircraft carrier Eisenhower as well as a cruiser,
destroyer, frigate, submarine escort and supply ship, to head for the
Persian Gulf, just off Iran's western coast." Now, Buzzflash.com
reports that the carrier group has already sailed and is scheduled to
arrive in the vicinity of Iran around October 21, at the same time as
a second flotilla of minesweepers and other ships.

And, thanks to the complicit corporate media, most of America had no
idea this was happening.

In fact, we may be only weeks away from total disaster. Sometime
before the November elections the madmen in the WH may very well
launch a major air attack on suspected nuclear facilities Iran.
Special ops have been waging covert actions in Iran for more than a
year and Karl Rove has promised us all an `October surprise.' But
most telling of all is that the party of George W. Bush and cartel is
in a serious political freefall. They cannot maintain their power in
this coming election without some major intervening event that would
once again instill fear and confusion in the minds of the American
public (that is if you don't count the massive election fraud that is
taking place in our nation!)

And most of America, so immersed in the Foley Follies, hasn't noticed
a thing.

Anonymous said...

Never mind that Iran can destroy us without launching a single nuclear
weapon. Check your maps, folks. If President Ahmadinejad moves to
close the Strait of Hormuz – Iran will control the flow of oil and
choke our economy in a nanosecond. Never mind that brighter and saner
minds than George Bush are warning of the dire consequences of a
military strike against Iraq. Never mind all that. PNAC rules the
roost and the best laid plans of neocons must not be thwarted. Never
mind the consequences… . Just never mind.

Never mind, because all that matters is the need to make the people
really afraid, and really submissive and really malleable so they'll
once again buy in to another war for God and Empire.

But, never mind all the smoke and mirrors. Most of America hasn't
noticed a thing.

For the REALLY BAD NEWS...and the REALLY REALLY BAD NEWS, read the
full article:

http://tvnewslies. org/html/ if_you_are_ not_afraid_ __.html

Anonymous said...

""If this were a dictatorship, it'd be a heck of a lot easier, just so long as I'm the dictator." —President-elect George W. Bush, at a photo-op with congressional leaders during his first trip to Capitol Hill, Washington, D.C., Dec. 19, 2000 "

Anonymous said...

Harry Schultz is an idiot. He's a religionist, gold-bugg and altruist and if you followed his "investment advice" you'd have been bankrupt long ago.

Check the track record of that $4000 per year newsletter or whatever he charges for it. Does he still mix numbers and letters and claim it's the "writing of the future?"

Most newsletter writers are self-styled gurus who claim to know something, but just got tired of their corporate jobs and decided to "retire early" writing a bunch of drivel so people with real jobs could have their hands held while investing their money in the "hot tip of the month" stock. If you look at the track records of these idiots, you would find that most of the returns are negative or zero. Better to get CD's in fiat currencies and collect your 2-8% per year.

Anonymous said...

richard said . . .

"And the sad irony is that those planning this war think of themselves as allies of the Jewish state. A conflagration of this magnitude could see Israel drawn back in Lebanon and sucked into a regional war, one that would over time spell the final chapter in the Zionist experiment in the Middle East."

What a load. The assertion that "those planning this war think of themselves as allies of the Jewish State" is on the same order as aking, "Sir, when did you stop beating your wife?" It presupposes "this war" with Iran is being planned, and not a figment of "richard's" imagination, and implies that "richard" not only has the inside scoop, but personally knows everyone involved.

The number of loons posting on this blog gets bigger daily. Maybe "richard" and the Nazi "hebrew house lender" could get together to share anti-depressants and schizophrenia medications.

Anonymous said...

that "richard" not only has the inside scoop, but personally knows everyone involved.

---

Secret agent man

There's a man who leads a life of danger
To everyone he meets he stays a stranger
With every move he makes another chance he takes
Odds are he won't live to see tomorrow

Secret agent man, secret agent man
They've given you a number and taken away your name

Beware of pretty faces that you find
A pretty face can hide an evil mind
Ah, be careful what you say
Or you'll give yourself away
Odds are you won't live to see tomorrow

Secret agent man, secret agent man
They've given you a number and taken away your name.

sorry had to.

Anonymous said...

lol, Yeah... There is NO WAY this administration would lie us into another war like the one they are proven to have lied us into in Iraq (which the jews had pre-planned many years ago). But hey, maybe thats my problem, I need to get on some of the jewco's mind numbing "anti-depressants" so I can't come to such easily drawn conclusions.

Anonymous said...

There will be no attack on Iran this year.

http://tinyurl.com/gv7gp

Roccman said...

There will be no attack on Iran this year.

http://tinyurl.com/gv7gp

Roccman said...

Hey Alcohol Anon - Tuesday, October 10, 2006 8:54:55 PM

Important note: In September of 2000, - a month before the SC appointed George Bush to the presidency, the PNAC group published an important report titled, Rebuilding America's Defenses: Strategy, Forces and Resources for a New Century Participants in preparing the document included Wolfowitz, I. Lewis (Scooter) Libby, Kristol, and 23 other prominent PNAC members.

Rebuilding America’s Defenses contained a series of prophetic statements that should have frightened those who read it. It should have been brought to the attention of the public by a concerned and protective media. It did not. I was not.

The PNAC plan stated:

A “core mission” for the transformed U.S. military is to “fight and decisively win multiple, simultaneous major theater wars.”

The strategic “transformation” of the U.S. military into an imperialistic force of global domination would require a huge increase in defense spending to “a minimum level of 3.5 to 3.8 percent of gross domestic product, adding $15 billion to $20 billion to total defense spending annually,” the PNAC plan said.

“The process of transformation is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event—like a new Pearl Harbor.”

Anonymous said...

Is this in any way related to the Whizzo Chocolate Company's bestsller - Spring Surprise.....?

"Ah - now, that’s our speciality - covered with darkest creamy chocolate. When you pop it in your mouth, steel bolts spring out and plunge straight through both cheeks. "


Ok, must just be my imagination.

Anonymous said...

You guys are too funny. Let me guess the next steps. They're going to put Cheney on a B2 so he can fly to Europe secretly and cut a deal with the former Shah's daughter who will return to rule Iran after the big attack. Everyone thinks she died in '01, but that was just a ruse cooked up by Rumsfeld and Bush. She will pay Cheney with twenty tons of gold bullion that will be carried back to Texas on the B2 and distributed to the Bush cabal.

Yeah...that's the ticket.

Almost as plausible as Keith's constant balling about the HP that isn't happening.

Anonymous said...

Got guns?

Roccman said...

"They're going to put Cheney on a B2 so he can fly to Europe secretly and cut a deal with the former Shah's daughter who will return to rule Iran after the big attack."

Not exactly - it is Kissinger persuading Putin, but nice try fool.

Bill said...

They're going to put Cheney on a B2

------------

That would be like making George Bush An Honorary Scholar at Harvard.

Anonymous said...

Hey all you Anon's. WOULD YOU PLEASE PICK A "HANDLE" so that we might actually follow along? You make it very difficult to keep track of this Community Thought Process. You are either intentionally distracting or accidentally doing so. Either way, for goodness sake: identify yourself. Thanks. Python sends.

Anonymous said...

Harry Schultz is a catastrophist. How many times has he warned us about the end of the world?
Howard Ruff and Robert Prechter next?
Does anyone remember Feb 2002, the last time the world financial system was gong to crash? No, because it didn't. The world didn't come to an end in 1987, or after the Asian contagion or LTCM. And those were real crashes.
He's as bad as Al Gore and all the oher apocalyptics running around getting quoted. Many people need to hear that the end is nigh, and many pander to that need.
Gimme a break.

Roccman said...

A must see.

50 minute video on oil and the economy.

http://tinyurl.com/hkjrc

Roccman said...

A must see.

Oil and the economy - 50 minute video

http://tinyurl.com/hkjrc

Anonymous said...

Just look at Russia, Argentina, and the Asian countries who have all experienced complete economic collapse in the last eight years or so.

Guess what?

All of them are enjoying recent extraordinary growth and profitability.

Yes, even Argentina. It's had near China level growth after the currency collapse---but its previous economic system was based on a fraud. This one is is more realistic and authentic.

Anonymous said...

If President Ahmadinejad moves to
close the Strait of Hormuz – Iran will control the flow of oil and choke our economy in a nanosecond.


That's like a child threatening to hold his breath until he chokes.

Where does all of Iran's exported oil go out from? Have they perfected the Star Trek transporter yet?

Iran could cause problems. For about three weeks.

The USAF could cause problems for Iran's oil export terminals for a year or so, while Saudi Arabia and Kuwait enjoy lucrative export profits as Iran's oil leaks out into a puddle, unsold.

Anonymous said...

"They're going to put Cheney on a B2 so he can fly to Europe secretly and cut a deal with the former Shah's daughter who will return to rule Iran after the big attack."

What's wrong with Reza Pahlavi, the Shah's son?

Anonymous said...

Russia invading Abkhazia and South Ossetia; a Chinese invasion of Taiwan or the Spratly Islands;

Russia doesn't have to invade Abkhazia because it is already there. It's a part of Georgia (was 2/3 Georgian population) that was "separated" from Georgia by Abkhaz puppets with the aid of the Russian army. South Ossetia is another Russian proxy.

China has been holding the most significant members for the Spratleys for decades (with periodic clashes with the Vietnamese), and they're not going to invade Taiwan, they're just going to wait until the US is so much in debt to China that they'll be able to force a resolution to the problem and the US won't be able to do anything.

I think this guy is a bit out of touch.

Anonymous said...

there are people all over the world, that show no respect for human life, they will always find a reason to kill