October 27, 2006

America's great new thrill ride: The Debt-Fueled Housing Crash!


WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

30 comments:

Bubba2Friday said...

Looks like 3rd quarter U.S. G.D.P. ...

But the bad number will be good news because it will "keep the Fed on the sideline"...

and the DOW goes still higher...

Metroplexual said...

Weeeeeee!

David said...

Prediction: 3Q GDP 1.7%

Bigqueue said...

If things slow down this much, are we possibly looking at more of a domino effect?

I'm no investment or monetary expert, but I wonder how the dollar might be affected? My great fear is a loss of confidence in the dollar which might push countries to dump them....which would cause all kinds of nasty things....including of course even more dumping of greenbacks.

I hope the ride is not so steep....if it is steep, it may not be so controlled. (what do you think?)

SeattleMoose said...

Considering that 1 out of 3 Americans is obese. I would like to see a study of weight loss per metro area as people lose money, jobs, etc. and are forced to tighten their belts.

Maybe the "housing diet" will actually help all these chubbies in the long run.

See, always a silver lining...

Bubba2Friday said...

Nice guess, David!

"Bigqueue said...
If things slow down this much, are we possibly looking at more of a domino effect?

I'm no investment or monetary expert, but I wonder how the dollar might be affected? My great fear is a loss of confidence in the dollar which might push countries to dump them....which would cause all kinds of nasty things....including of course even more dumping of greenbacks.

I hope the ride is not so steep....if it is steep, it may not be so controlled. (what do you think?)"

By an amazing coincidence (as I'm sure there's other places he'd rather be this morning) Treasury Secretary Hank Paulsen is (inconveniently) scheduled (for him) to be on CNBC for a live interview this morning. He will have to watch his words so as to not upset the apple cart... may be very interesting viewing.

NYU professor Nouriel Roubini has a blog "RGE Monitor" where he has called for a worse-than-expected GDP. His post yesterday was very interesting because he examined how quickly economic pictures have changed in the past and how quickly the Fed has reacted (ie swwitching from a raising bias to a cutting bias.)

Keith, CNBC will like post a link to Paulsen's interview at CNBC.com.

borkafatty said...

According to Reuters GDP is the worst it's been in 3 years.

My brother inlaw who left one construction job, bacause of a layoff, just acepted a job offer 120 miles away from his home everyday, he is a go getter yes, but he has only workd there a week and he is already bitching.

borkafatty said...

oh and looking at that pic, americans are fat bastards.

funny to:

Yes can I please have 2 large fries, 2 double cheeseburgers....and a

Diet coke! HAHAHAH! Like the Diet coke makes a difference.

Anonymous said...

bork:

just curious; did your brother-in-law settled for a less pay? i remember you were saying before that he dictates his salary. it's like all or nothing.

by the way, that commute is going to wear him down. been there, done that.

Anonymous said...

looks like that woman seated at the front has the largest debt of them all.

the emperial wizard said...

I'm still waiting for a decline in my area, the stupid bastards just keep buying and buying.

borkafatty said...

bork:

just curious; did your brother-in-law settled for a less pay? i remember you were saying before that he dictates his salary. it's like all or nothing.

by the way, that commute is going to wear him down. been there, done that.

------------

Actually he increased his pay by $5000 (so he says), you know the jargen, Free phone (supposably Gas card) work for 2 years, that sort of thing, but 120 mile a day travel time is wearing for sure, heck i put in 15 hour days some weeks, and i have a desk job during the day, and my ass is dragging come the end of the week...

plus he is a cry baby so we shall see.

reinhardt said...

From the roller coaster pic I am reminded that the average American is an obese stupid herd animal.

Anonymous said...

America - land of the fat and stupid

Anonymous said...

Hey monkeys!!!

What do you think about this?

FlyingMonkeyWarrior said...

A study was done. The combined excess phat of the US citizens is why we use so much gas! They are too heavy for the cars to run in an effecient manner.
Oh No.

bubble trouble said...

Seattle real estate will not hold for long. It's all the S Cal fleeing with big bucks heading north that is raising prices there. Unless Seattle has and can keep a phenomenal job market to support these price increases, they won't stick. Like many towns, they're stating the "Seattle is different, it's a wonderful place to live". It's green and there is lots of water.

borkafatty said...

A study was done. The combined excess phat of the US citizens is why we use so much gas! They are too heavy for the cars to run in an effecient manner.
Oh No.

----

there in lies the invention of the SUV.

foxwoodlief said...

Americans are not the only obese people in the world. Even France is beginning to see a major up-tick in obesity. Japan has seen it too. Obesity is a sign that a country has too much money or that food is too cheap. Yes, too cheap, like gas. Taxpayers in Europe and the USA subsidize the cost of food by the hundreds of billions each year. Remove subsidy, price goes up, consumption goes down, so will obesity. Raise the price of gas, consumption goes down, the US is better off and the tax to raise the price can pay down the national debt instead of going to other countries.

Most of my friends and family do not use debt to fuel consumption. Most live simply, buy only when there is a super bargain (we buy clothes once a year, usually when Dillards has their 75% off sale and then never spend more than $500 for two of us for clothes). We don't spend money on anything but things we need, not want. We never pay full price! (Just like the rich who never pay for anything). Why buy a book at Borders for $25 when you can buy it on Amazon for a penny plus shipping or better at a yard sale or thrift? We don't eat at expensive resturants except on special occasions (about four times a year and then if we know the portions are large, we share a plate). Most of our friends do the same.

Again, people here love to stereotype and lump all Americans in the same boat (roller coaster). They say you hate most in others what exists within yourself so I can only assume that a lot of people who make these comments are in debt themselves, are uneducated and make minimum wage and are jealous of those who made better choices for their lives and how they spend their money and wish evil out of envy.

Anonymous said...

"I've always felt the same way. People who are computer literate and articulate disgust with the current system are, on the whole, usually poor, uneducated, and envious of others. Fascinating deductive reasoning, do go on."

mark,

Did you mean "disgusted" you articulate devil, or do you just have fat fingers?

keith said...

"Even France is beginning to see a major up-tick in obesity."

Want to know why?

McDonalds.

The exporting of poor American way of eating around the globe.

Where we go, fat people follow

Alan P. said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

mark,

Comprehension, mark, comprehension.

I was commenting on your use of "disgust" instead of disgusted, not articulate.

Comprehend?

Alan P. said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

I think there is a misunderstanding. I have no reason to envy or hate most of my friends and peers. I bought a nice new home pre-bubble, make 6 figure salary and spend less than I make. I have over 300k in equity and have never touched it once. IF I talk shit about people around me that consume more than they make its because...here I am trying to do the right thing, make more, spend less, drive my beat up 99 honda, be conformed with the 1600 sq ft house instead of the Mcmansion (even though I can afford one) and then comes along the idiot (family or friend) who makes way less, drives the Hummer, has the McMansion, brags about their toys, timeshares and granite countertops. THAT IS WHAT PISSES ME OFF. THAT IS WHY I TALK SHIT ABOUT THOSE PEOPLE.

Shakster said...

Gotta weigh in with metroplexual-WEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE!
And if anyone is envious of someone elses success,that's a normal state.An,"I told you so" is also in order.Weeeeeeeeeeeee!

foxwoodlief said...

Well annonymous, I agree with you, but I think you said it correctly when you said, "I live below my means" and if you do, remember there are millions of other Americans who do as well.

I always lived below my means, didn't get emotional about a house, never paid more than $103 a sq ft (current house) full loaded with every bell and whistle and 1/2 acre hillside lot. Have only owned four cars in 30 years (two used, one new with stick and no A/C in Phoenix, and paid cash for them).

I can only go on the evidence I see from the people I know. Most of them manage their money well, but no all. Most make good money but not all. I have a nephew in California (SJ) who I though dumb to pay $475,000 for a small 1200 sq ft condo (old) when he has two small girls, he makes $70,000 and his wife makes about $20,000. Interest only loan. He has no bills, no car payments, dad helped him buy with the down payment. So I imagine he falls in to the category most of us who read HP shake our heads at. One friend has no money skills (I have bailed her out many a time) bought a house in Portland in May. I guess a good deal, $197,000 for an older fixer ranch with a basement. She makes $75,000 a year and has a loser partner that doesn't work. She just paid off her car and has $2,000 in credit card debt. I guess owning a house is good as it is forceing her to become more responsible.

Everyone else I know (brother, cousins, parents, closest friends) have all owned their homes for at least five years or longer, have not taken out their equity, have multiple income streams, very little credit card debt, and all but one has no car payments. The one who does (two cars) just paid off one six months ago and the other will be paid off within six months (they always take out a three year loan and pay double payments).

The only person I worry about is the one who owns three houses. Their home bought in 1988 and they owe $185,000 and it is probaly gone down in value (in Phoenix) to $320,000 from $600,000 (In a nice Peoria area, 1/2 acre lot, pool, other homes sold for up to one million) and still think it worth at least $500,000. One rental property in Phoenix (paid $145,000 in 2003 (foreclosed) owe $115,000, rent for at zero profit but no negative cash, wouldn't sell when I told them in 2005 for $320,000, still thinks it is worth that (most likely only $185,000 in my opinion) and a third house here in Austin they paid $262,000 in 2005 and rent for $800 more than their mortgage payment. (They owe $230,000 and house would currently sell for about $325,000). Why do I not envy them? Because they thinkn they have a million in property and I think they have half-a-mil in debt.

They make good money, can afford to carry the properties if empty for quite some time, have plenty of savings, will probably keep all three homes long-term, so in the long run maybe smart. Still, I prefer a much simpler budget.

This I think is more typical of the average home owners out there and I think less than 20% are probaly on the edge, if most of them fall off I guess it will hurt but will not be the end.

Anonymous said...

FATTER PEOPLE FASTER COASTING!!!!

NEW ADVERTISEMENT FOR COMING TO AMERICA'S AMUSEMENT PARKS.

panicearly said...

peak fat

Anonymous said...

"This I think is more typical of the average home owners out there and I think less than 20% are probaly on the edge, if most of them fall off I guess it will hurt but will not be the end."

You dont get it, I live in CA. Almost everyone around me is counting their equity as income! They tak out cash and live off it, spend it on toys and crap. 'IF' they fall off as you say, yes they wont die BUT it will prob be the end of them buying another home. After the atermath, banks are going to go 'old schoo' : 20% down, 3 yrs W2 and credit above 750. DO you really think these people that 'fall off' will be able to get a loan in the future. Heeelll no.