September 26, 2006

The very moment the housing bubble jumped the shark

16 comments:

Anonymous said...

I have got to believe Time is a bit embarassed about that cover art, even though the inside story was balanced. What are they waiting for? Where's the follow-up "housing crash" cover already?

Anonymous said...

The media is always behind the curve when it comes to economic trends. When I saw that cover last year, I knew it was over.

Anonymous said...

Keith,

I'd like to suggest a future discussion topic to you: Assuming a complete, world-wide financial meltdown; if you had the power to dictate the starting-over process, what would you do differently?

Just to get started, I would (1) not create a central banking system, (2) currency would be based on gold, (3) no income tax, (4) the governments ONLY duty is to protect our borders.

Anonymous said...

I love it when the Fonzi waterskiing cultural event is alluded to. Nice one.

Anonymous said...

unfortunatly, by backing the money with gold at this point, all the int' bankers now control even more gold giving them even MORE power. afterall central banks have been selling gold for years at below market prices.

Anonymous said...

ya know what i'd love to see, a follow-up by FORTUNE.

Does anyone remember thier cover story on RE, they had about 4 different people on the cover all smug and posing like geniuses. I particularly remember some punk ass fat-boy wearing gold elvis glasses and how he was buying phoenix property with even going there. If remember correctly, he was the "go-to" gut for develooers to buy 3 or 4 homes to push sales.

anyboby remember this fat-a$$?

Anonymous said...

ok, i found it. here's the fat guy:

"Tahmassebian, just 22, is a big, affable guy who dresses the way a budding young speculator should: black trousers, a blue-and-white-striped shirt, cuff links, a Cartier watch, black suede loafers, and rimless purple sunglasses. The son of Armenian immigrants, he has spent the past four years in Las Vegas working as a mortgage banker, a job that he says paid him $250,000 in salary and commissions last year. He has taken the day off to fly to Arizona for a "frame inspection." The houses he's inspecting are somewhere inside the Cholla Ranch development that's being put up by KB Home, one of the nation's largest builders. Right now he's in the general area--cruising southeast down Highway 10 in a white Chrysler 300M rental car--but lacking specifics. "Is that Tempe?" he asks. "I think I have some houses there."

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After several uninterrupted miles of cactus, desert, and tumbleweed, it becomes clear that he's missed the turn, and he exits the freeway while dialing his broker. "Papa John!" Tahmassebian says into his cellphone. "Where are my houses?" To get more help, he dials KB Home on another phone, and soon he has a gleaming silver clamshell at each ear. For a moment the car drifts dangerously across the exit ramp, until I reach over to grab the steering wheel. "It's okay," Tahmassebian whispers, nodding toward the place where his trousers meet the bottom of the wheel. "This knee can drive.""


another 2005 jump the shark moment:

http://money.cnn.com/magazines/
fortune/fortune_archive/
2005/05/30/toc.html

Anonymous said...

From the Fortune Mag, May 2005 article...

Tahmassebian bought his eight Phoenix houses with 10% down, a total investment of $150,000 including closing costs. To buy seven more houses, he entered into a limited partnership with his best friend's dad, who lost money in the tech crash and is looking to make it back in the housing market. Each contributed half the down payments.

The houses aren't exactly throwing off cash: Tahmassebian estimates that he loses $3,500 a month on them, since he doesn't bother to rent out all 15. "If I'm negative on a few, that's okay," he says. "I'm in it for the appreciation." In seven months, he estimates, the 15 properties have appreciated from $2 million to $3 million. He's planning to sell in the next two to three years, but if the market does crash--which he doesn't expect--it wouldn't be a disaster, he says: "You just hold on till it comes right back up."

---
By now he's sweating bullets hoping his best friend's dad isn't coming to get him. Working at McDonld's doesn't pay $250K.

Anonymous said...

"unfortunatly, by backing the money with gold at this point, all the int' bankers now control even more gold giving them even MORE power"

I agree. If you monetarize gold or silver, you've essentially allowed govts to confiscate it as a way of exercising monetary control since an oz of gold can be swapped for an IOU (ala currency note) for its set value.

If you simply let gold, silver, and platinum float on its own, even though there'll be spikes and troughs, people can still use it as a savings vehicle when they don't want to invest it in money markets or equities. Regular checking accounts can still be in local currencies for the ease of use but fiat money won't be used to store value for periods of time like it is today.

This will solve all those tricky issues of whether or not elderly people can trust banking institutes to provide them with a CD whose rate keeps up with the cost of living. They'll be no more CDs because currency will be thought of as an IOU than a retainer of wealth.

Anonymous said...

"What are they waiting for? Where's the follow-up "housing crash" cover already?"

That Time cover story is scheduled for the week of October 30th ;-)

Can't have the buzz peaking too soon.

Anonymous said...

"What are they waiting for? Where's the follow-up "housing crash" cover already?"

That Time cover story is scheduled for the week of October 30th ;-)

Can't have the buzz peaking too soon.

Anonymous said...

anon said:
That Time cover story is scheduled for the week of October 30th ;-)

he maybe about right, the Eisenhower Strike Group has be ordered to duty Oct 1st and will arrive in the Persian Gulf by Oct 21.

Anonymous said...

That Time cover story is scheduled for the week of October 30th ;-)

Maybe they will wait until after the elections.......

LauraVella said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
LauraVella said...

Anon 8:23:02 said:"That Time cover story is scheduled for the week of October 30th ;-)



Great! just in time for halloween.

The cover is sure to scare the cr*p out of those homedebitors trying to sell.

uknowwhoiyam said...

Check out The Economist's June 05 cover a bit further down the page.

Time blew the call but The Economist nailed it (as usual).