Bob is now blaming greed, speculation and reporting for the bursting of the bubble (and the collapse of his company)
Bob, I'd suggest you know a thing or two about greed. You, my friend, are the housing greed poster child, and after the 2008 Senate Housing Bubble hearings where you'll take the fifth, you'll be seen as the Bernie Ebbers of this bubble. I hope you have good lawyers.
Chief Executive Robert Toll said the U.S. housing market got ahead of itself due to greed on the part of buyers and sellers, and that it now likely faces the highest level of speculative inventory ever.
Toll said the current downturn is unique in his experience because it wasn't driven by a "macro-event" although interest rates have risen steadily.
"Every day there's an article about how lousy housing is now and how dumb you have to be to buy a house now," the CEO said Tuesday at the Credit Suisse Homebuilders Symposium.
"I don't know what it will take to turn this market -- it could take two years, or it could take someone getting quoted in the New York Times saying the market has hit bottom."
September 13, 2006
Looks like the corrupt Bob Toll is reading HP. "Hi, Bob!"
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Foreclosures spiked in August
Rising payments on adjustable-rate mortgages contribute to 53% jump in foreclosures.
By Les Christie, CNNMoney.com staff writer
September 13 2006: 5:42 AM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- The number of homes entering into some stage of foreclosure is surging, according to a survey released Wednesday.
In August, 115,292 properties entered into foreclosure, according to RealtyTrac, an online marketplace for foreclosure sales. That was 24 percent above the level in July and 53 percent higher than a year earlier.
It was the second highest monthly foreclosure total of the year; in February, 117,151 properties entered foreclosure.
Some of the bellwether real estate market states are among the leading foreclosure markets. Florida, had more than 16,533 properties in foreclosure in August. That led all states and was 50 percent higher than in July and 62 percent higher than in August 2005.
California foreclosures are increasing at an even faster annual rate, up 160 percent since last year to 12,506. And the formerly red-hot Nevada market recorded a spike of 24 percent compared with July and a whopping 255 percent increase from August 2005.
Rick Sharga, RealtyTrac's vice president of marketing, says the rising foreclosure numbers are in part the result of rising monthly payments on adjustable-rate mortgages, which have a low introductory interest rate that heads higher after an initial period.
"Usually, foreclosures are a lagging [market] indicator," he says. "But we've never had a situation like this with adjustable-rate mortgages amounting to $400 billion to $500 billion coming up for adjustment over the rest of the year."
For a homeowner with a 5/1 ARM that's now resetting, the adjustment could add at least two percentage points to the interest rate. That could send the payment on a $200,000 loan up from about $950 a month closer to $1,200 - $250 more each month.
These exotic mortgages, which have been issued by lenders at much higher numbers the past few years, default at a higher rate than do fixed-rate mortgages. And sub-prime loans, which are much more common than in the past, have a higher default rate as well.
But, Sharga says, "The real wild card is the nature of the loans themselves. Historically, ARMs were underwritten pretty conservatively. There has been a loosening of standards with lower credit worthiness and smaller down payments."
Underlying causes
Homeowners are also in Dutch because of underlying economic conditions. Many of the worst hit markets, such as in the Midwest, are in areas hard hit by layoffs or other economic ills.
When housing markets were hot, homeowners could often avoid default through two ready made options, according to Sharga: They could sell to a ready market or they could use the increase through appreciation in their equity to refinance their homes. Increasingly, both those options are evaporating.
Contrary to what many consumers may believe, lenders are not anxious to foreclose on homes and put families out on the streets. Foreclosures tend to be money losers for lenders and are done mostly as a last resort.
Sharga says lenders are beginning to recognize that a problem is brewing and are taking steps to address it. They are much more amenable to a short sale, for example, in which they accept a low-ball, cash bid early in the default process that may not even cover their mortgage, in order to avoid a larger loss later. That can help homeowners by preserving their credit scores and easing their transitions into the rental market.
"Lenders say they're looking for ways to work with homeowners in trouble," reports Sharga. "So for homeowners looking at a default situation, the sooner they talk to their lender - and see what options are available - the better."
Hi Keith,
I know you hate opinions that are different than your own, and most likely consider them dumb. So here is my dumb comment.
This society worships men like Toll. Toll is the high priest of greed who can secretly kick a starving child out of his way to pick up a high society charity award. People worship his ability to lie so boldly and get paid handsomly for it. I bet we all feel some sense of admiration for a guy who can "get away with it."
Yeah Bob, try and inoculate your image by getting out in front of the issue....friggin tool! I'd have taken it more seriously if you had made the statement before you started cashing out of Toll Bros stock!
Maybe I'm missing the point. What is it you think Toll did that was illegal, unlawful or just plain wrong?
If it includes fraud, misrepresentation or otherwise withholding information, what would he have withheld that wasn't readily available?
I am serious and genuine, and would appreciate your insight.
"it could take two years"
try 10 years!
Well, one thing Bob Toll did was sell thousands of his shares of TOL while the company was simultaneously buying shares back in a share repurchase program and he was out talking to the press about how home prices would never go down. His shareholders might start to wonder why the company was buying shares while the CEO was selling them. Maybe he was trying to prop up the price while he cashed out? No, couldn't be, CEO's are always way to ethical to do something like that.
Builders like Toll are not totally to blame. If people were not willing to buy their McMansions at astronomical prices then this would not of happened.
The builders simply practiced 'what the buyer will bear'.
The banks are the ones who should be blamed......lending someone 500,000 dollars when they earn 40,000 p.a is the real crime.
I can get a loan i can't afford, but the other day, W.F. Bank would not change a $100 for 5 $20's unless i had an account!
They actually said, 'They' can't tell if it might be counterfeit! Even with their lil pens, blacklights, and other built in components of the bill itself, they can't tell?!?!?!
Where can I find the whole text for the original article? Can't find it anywhere...
Bake,
True, the banks are the most to blame. I think when all is said and done, the company that will fall the hardest will be a WaMu or Countrywide or a holding company for subprime lenders.
But, Bob Toll and some other homebuilder execs will be taken to task. They caused the oversupply bubble that we are seeing. They can say they were responding to demand all they want, but they knew that alot of that demand was speculative (in effect, fake demand) and was not going to last, and just took as much advantage of it while they could. And while their companies are going to go down the shitter, it will come to light that they cashed out while the the cashin out was good, and there will be some very unhappy shareholders and employees. If they did everything by the book, they will be okay legally. But if they did anything that could be used against them, there will be a microscope on them and plenty of plaintiffs at the ready to take em down if they can.
Maybe Toll boys cashed out to buy $4 million houses for their kids, so they won't have won't have to live at home when they're 40. New paradigm, dontcha know.
Bake,
The people on this board last summer were probably about 1/10,000th of a percent of the country's population. Bob Toll knew the demand was false for his houses and just kept pumping the false demand. Meanwhile, he was cashing out. I don't know if he did anything illegal, but there will be alot of people who will look to find something because they want him to go down: shareholders, employees, customers, and lawyers representing all three. And if he did do something illegal, he'll have to hope he greased the right politician's and media owner's hands.
Just like the 911 commission this too will end up on the hill. I figure by this time next year there will be some hard questions being asked. By that time it will be very apparent that the GOP lost both houses indirectly because of consumer sentimate. The electorate only looks into things when it threatens thier seats. I figure by then unemployment should be epidemic. Alot of players in this next castastrophe. The Fed, homebuilders, Fannie and Freddie, Banks, Morgage Lenders, stupid consumer, NAR and all the realwhores, and specuvestors. I hope to see all of them take thier turn at explaining their role in the demise of the national economy. Everyone will see it airing because most of us will be unemployed because of this fiasco.
Bake,
You are a tenacious little monkey, aren't ya?
Point taken, he'll still end up getting his fair share of blame, and investigations, though.
That's probably part of why he's saying the things he's saying now.
I see that happening with Robert Kiyosaki, too. He keeps writing these oddball articles about religion and such. I see the stink of fear in that guy. He's about to go down as one of the pumpers of this whole mess, even though in actuality alot of his advice was pretty sound, just consumed by stupid, overeager people.
and what do you suppose would have happened if Mr. Toll had cashed out all his stocks at that time?
you can only waterski behind so many boats, drink only so much Dom, eat only so much caviar.
what kind of message do you think it would send if the ceo liquidated his position entirely in that company - how much attention do you think that would have drawn?
he sold as much as he thought he could dump at one time without hitting the fire alarm and still make a boat load of money. at this point he could probably care less if toll brothers inc., his remaining shares and the idiots still holding the stock take a bath.
two stories on cnn business page today
foreclosures surge
irs gets tough
Coordination With Form 1099-C
If, in the same calendar year, you cancel a debt in connection with a foreclosure or abandonment of secured property, it is not necessary to file both Form 1099-A and Form 1099-C, Cancellation of Debt, for the same debtor. You may file Form 1099-C only. You will meet your Form 1099-A filing requirement for the debtor by completing boxes 5 and 7 on Form 1099-C. However, if you file both Forms 1099-A and 1099-C, do not complete boxes 5 and 7 on Form 1099-C. See the instructions for Form 1099-C on page AC-2.
Why? You don't think Kiyosaki's claim that the bible says poor people are evil is an accurate interpretation? He's cracking up now. Should be fun to watch him go completely insane when all of his adherents start declaring bankruptcy.
the three collection agencies with contracts with the irs will be paid 25% of the amount they are able to collect from each tax slave they are assigned.
where pricey mortgages on overpriced houses are concerned, telling lenders to take the keys and shove them will result in abandonment, then foreclosure, then auction and short sale, then filing of 1099C, then tax liability due from the idiot ex "home"owner - check mate and match. it's miller time.
Its not really the banks fault. The dishonest Fed sets the lending standards & they set them real low to create this bubble. Banks gotta do what banks do, right? As a stock holder how would you feel if your bank was the only one NOT doing huge loan business during the mania good times? Same with builders?
Don't you guys know that one of the principles of business is: "The customer is always right."
Whether people want to buy Beany Babies, kitschy crap on eBay, or McMansions for $500 per square foot is really none of the companies' business. People buy stupid stuff because: it gives them 10 minutes of pleasure, it's someone else's money (usually the husband's), or they are IQ deficient or compulsive spenders. None of this crew deserves any sympathy. How many of these yo-yo's bought the singing bass a few years ago?
I'd have my sh*t bronzed and sell it on eBay if I thought that there was a market it! I don't feel bad taking money from stupid people, and don't feel guilty for selling my over-priced McMansion in March '05!
Was Bill Gates or John Chambers or Larry Ellison responsible for the Internet bust?
No
Bob Toll runs a corporation. The purpose of a corporation is to create wealth for shareholders, and that is it. It isn't a fucking charity. Toll Brothers wasn't writing the loans for this crap, so I don't see where he is culpable. He was simply in the right place at the right time making houses...and...gasp...oh my God...trying to make money. Holy shit. What have you people taken vows of poverty?
Stocks Hit 4-Month Highs; Oil Rebounds
AP - Stocks extended their rally into a second day Wednesday, pushing to four-month highs even as oil prices showed a slight rebound after seven days of losses.
***** GREAT *****
Everyone's favorite feature..
Lowball! 8/23 - 9/13
Lowball! takes a look at home sales from a different perspective. For those new to Lowball!, a lowball offer is when a buyer offers a significantly lower bid than asking in hopes that the seller accepts the offer. We take a list of home sales from the past month and pick out the sales that have the highest percentage difference between original list price and selling price.
Somehow, something is wrong when the system chews up all the arable land, and paves it over with impractical, ersatz manor homes. Maybe some guy "has the right" to do that, and maybe he doesn't, if you factor in the toll (pun intended)on the environment. You might say the responsibility lies with zoning and land management policy - the same failings that utterly wiped out past civilizations. I don't know about Toll Brothers per se, but would you be surprised if bribery was involved in getting building permits, variances, etc. at least some of the time?
Somehow, something is wrong when the system chews up all the arable land, and paves it over with impractical, ersatz manor homes.
Who is to blame? The company that produces the homes or the consumers? Since you are a libtard, then you blame the corporations, that are all corporatey and corporate and make things. Well then go live in a fucking tree house where the arable land can still be arable or live in a 1950's ineffecient house that uses the same amount of energy.
Bake McBride plagiarized John T. Reed when he said:
"Kiyosaki is primarily a creature of Amway (now Quixtar) and other multi-level marketing organizations. His books were not selling until he allied himself with that crowd. Then the volume of sales to those MLM guys made him a “best-selling author,” which caused normal non-MLM people to think the book must be good"
(See http://johntreed.com/Kiyosaki.html)
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