September 28, 2006

HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day


HP'ers, do you get the feeling you know something others don't know?

Or do they know and don't want you to know they now know?

Or do they not know what they don't know because they wouldn't listen to you tell them what you know that they should know?

Or does everyone just now know?

42 comments:

Anonymous said...

they know

Anonymous said...

He knew !

Bakersfield Bubble said...

Look what Jeb Bush is doing for St. Joe:

http://www.sptimes.com/2006/09/28/Opinion/Bush_s_46_million_fav.shtml


_____________________________

These guys are morally bankrupt!

crispy&cole

Robert Coté said...

The elephant in the living room just piddled on the carpet.

Anonymous said...

What cause the stock market to rally lately, and why the mortgage rate keeps going lower and lower?

Hmmmm.... They may know something that we don't know.

tabasco jenkins said...

They don't know. They know all about Paris Hilton and Lindsay Lohan and Dancing with the Stars and how to win at Deal or No Deal (so mentally challenging!), but they don't know at all about the largest investment of their lives. This is America, folks.

borkafatty said...

Here is something the absolutly Know.

The State of U.S. Households' Balance Sheets

http://tinyurl.com/oar4e

We faw down and go boom said...

I always think people know something I don't. When I ask questions they don't reply, not even with an "I don't know."

Those might be the three most difficult words for an American to say to someone.

One person shouted us down when my husband and I suggested that this might not be a good time to buy.

Another person asked me if I wanted to know about the details of her condo purchase. I said no, unless she wanted to hear details about my motorcycle scrapes.

If they get into trouble, I of course will be the last one to know. But it won't be an "I told you so" moment, because they didn't give me the chance to in the first place.

Anonymous said...

It's kinda like watching me as an 18 year old taking your daughter out for a date. Don't worry Mr. Garcia everything will be ok. Later after all night of action. Driving by Mr. Garcia heading down the opoite side of the freeway. Knowing something that he does not know. About a month later Mr. Garcia eating lunch with his daughter, which was a fruit cocktail. Mr. Garcia said do you still have your cherry to his daughter?

Anonymous said...

All I know is that picture of that chick is making me wanna surf porn.

Anonymous said...

It's kinda like watching me as an 18 year old taking your daughter out for a date. Don't worry Mr. Garcia everything will be ok. Later after all night of action. Driving by Mr. Garcia heading down the opoite side of the freeway. Knowing something that he does not know. About a month later Mr. Garcia eating lunch with his daughter, which was a fruit cocktail. Mr. Garcia said do you still have your cherry to his daughter?

Anonymous said...

Hey all you smart people....if you got some guts, short the stock markets now!!!

You all would have profited handsomely if you had been shorting since the existence of this blog.

Not

Anonymous said...

Hey all you smart people....if you got some guts, short the stock markets now!!!
IT DOES NOT ONLY TAKE GUTS IT TAKES BRAINS. I AM WAITING FOR THE MARKET TO PEAK,FROM THOSE FOOLS. THEN I WILL SHORT THE MARKET. THE TIME IS ALMOST THERE.

Anonymous said...

only her hair dresser knows.

borkafatty said...

All I know is that picture of that chick is making me wanna surf porn.


-----------------

gay porn no doubt

autofx in Phx said...

Be careful, you guys.

If there's one market that can easily be manipulated upward, it's the stock market.

Lots of smarty pants amateurs thought they were gonna do well shorting the stock market these last few years, and have gotten badly burned.

Anonymous said...

They know allright...but they don't want to face reality. Its human nature as very few of the masses have the intellectual acuity and brutal self honesty to confront the facts, especially when it comes to their balance sheet.
I keep hearing nonsense such as
"things will work out" or "we'll see
what happens..." .
Very similar to Bush's Iraq war plan, "stay and pray".
This country is screwed and Wall St. is having a party. Go figure.

Anonymous said...

NOW THIS BLOG IS BECOMING FUN. ONLY THE HARD CORES ARE LEFT. WE HAVE FLUSHED OUT ALL THE PANSIES.
THIS IS WHEN IT GET'S INTERESTING FOLKS. THIS IS THE TIME SEROUS MONEY CAN BE MADE.

Anonymous said...

I agree with Tabasco--They don't know, nor do they want to know. Most just bury their heads in the sand.

I work with some very bright/educated people--people who should know better, but when I bring up any of these subjects:

· Housing Bubble
· Excessive Consumer Spending
· Negative Savings Rate
· ARM’s, Interest only mtgs, Neg-AM’s, etc
· Massive Trade Deficits
· $8.5T US Debt
· $50+ T in un-funded US liabilities
· US Outsourcing of Corporations and Jobs
· Our Service based Consumer Economy
· False Rally in the Stock Market
· Inflation Pressures
· Reserve Currencies and the Dollar’s eventual Demise
· Hyperinflation
· Peak Oil
· Problems with Government produced GDP, Unemployment and CPI figures
· Etc


they get a disinterested deer-in-the-headlights look and try to come up with some lame rationale as to why the US will never experience a financial meltdown. A completely oblivious perspective--they don’t know and don’t want to know… but how about that survivor episode last night?

borkafatty said...

here is a pretty good tutorial for when the time is right...but when is the rime right?? that is the millon dollar question.

http://tinyurl.com/28b7t

Mr Vincent said...

The trailer-trash that is currently buying 500k homes with 100% Option-ARM financing DO NOT KNOW, and even after foreclosure, will try to blame someone else!

Gramps said...

Who knew.

Anonymous said...

They know, HP'ers don't know. HP'ers didn't get the memo about the stock market rally and lower mortgage interest rates. Nothing to see here folks....

Anonymous said...

Bruce Toll (the other bro of Toll Brothers) sure knows something:

He sold 355,000 shares of TOL on sept 26th.

He sold at the recent local high, $28.99, too.

The Toll brothers have been great "investors" in their own stock.

Watch what they do, not what they say.

Bobby Tolly (CEO) sold gazillions last summer as he was pumping RE and TOL to the moon.

borkafatty said...

Ahh! Yes the memories of the good old days..Next Monday will mark eight months since Alan Greenspan stepped down as chairman of the Federal Reserve, yet he keeps popping up in the news - twice in the last week.


Bubble Man!

http://tinyurl.com/rqklh

Richard said...

The Master Plan for the World and Resource Stocks

http://www.safehaven.com/article-5986.htm

Crucial Taunt said...

Here's something she does not want you to know:

Toll Bros - Did they know...?

Did the Toll Bros (the actual dudes) and their cronies know of the impending slowdown in new home sales as far back as December 2004? Take a look at their insider transactions and focus on the December 10th - 13th sale by Robert Toll:


13-Dec-04
TOLL, ROBERT I.Chief Executive Officer
250,000
Indirect
Sale at $62.9523 per share.
$15,738,075
13-Dec-04
TOLL, BRUCE E.Director
500,000
Indirect
Sale at $63.0269 per share.
$31,513,450
13-Dec-04
TOLL, ROBERT I.Chief Executive Officer
250,000
Direct
Planned Sale
$15,750,0001
10-Dec-04
RASSMAN, JOEL H.Officer
20,600
Direct
Planned Sale
$1,328,7001
10-Dec-04
BARZILAY, ZVIOfficer
100,000
Direct
Planned Sale
$6,450,0001
10-Dec-04
SHAPIRO, PAULDirector
30,000
Direct
Planned Sale
$1,924,6321
10-Dec-04
TOLL, ROBERT I.Chief Executive Officer
868,700
Indirect
Sale at $64.1712 per share.
$55,745,521
10-Dec-04
TOLL, ROBERT I.Chief Executive Officer
120,000
Direct
Sale at $64.1712 per share.
$7,700,544
10-Dec-04
TOLL, ROBERT I.Chief Executive Officer
988,700
Direct
Planned Sale
$63,400,0001
10-Dec-04
MARBACH, CARL B.Director
1,000
Direct
Disposition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.
N/A
10-Dec-04
HILLAS, ROGER S.Director
5,250
Direct
Disposition (Non Open Market) at $0 per share.
N/A
10-Dec-04
RASSMAN, JOEL H.Director
20,600
Direct
Option Exercise at $10.125 per share.
$208,575
10-Dec-04
RASSMAN, JOEL H.Director
20,600
Direct
Sale at $64.5013 per share.
$1,328,726
10-Dec-04
BARZILAY, ZVIPresident
120,170
Direct
Option Exercise at $8.75 - $11.4375 per share.
N/A
10-Dec-04
BARZILAY, ZVIPresident
3,124
Direct
Disposition (Non Open Market) at $64 per share.
$199,936
10-Dec-04
BARZILAY, ZVIPresident
100,000
Direct
Sale at $64.4786 per share.
$6,447,860
10-Dec-04
SHAPIRO, PAUL E.Director
30,000
Direct
Sale at $64.40 - $64.5 per share.
$1,934,0002

borkafatty said...

And this bubble video from a comment post..unreal to say the least.

http://tinyurl.com/edsyn

IW said...

They don't even know that they don't know.

Anonymous said...

My mommy just told me that real estate only goes up. I guess I'ld better go buy some!

Paul E. Math said...

They don't know. And the real problem is that they think they do know and that you don't. Why would they want to hear an alternative possibility when they already know? They are convinced that the conventional wisdom is correct - real estate is different, prices don't fall in real estate.

Their self-worth and self-image is tied up in how smart and successful they have become as 'real estate investors' because they bought a 2-bedroom condo for 300k and they 'made' 50k on it. On paper.

You can't talk to these people. They will resent you for telling them the truth. They take it as a personal insult when you merely suggest another interpretation of the facts, when you present them with new facts and quote conflicting opinions from truly objective experts.

This is why there is the expression "don't shoot the messenger" - these people lack the critical faculties to spot this bubble and they will lack the ability to distinguish us from the source of the problem. Those of us who saw the future will be accused of creating it.

It's illegal to shout 'Fire!' in a crowded theatre - we will all be personally criticized for doing so despite the fact that this overcrowded theatre is burning all around us.

panicearly said...

yes

panicearly said...

NAR and TOLL know ofcourse. TVheads spout what they are paid to spout.

the rest have faith, aah but it will be tested.

Anonymous said...

Is this supposed to be some kind of mindF*ck. That is, is the picture really a dude?

hemorrhoidforhousing said...

They all knew it would end and probably end badly.

Crack dealers know it will end and end badly, but the buyers just keep coming and they just keep selling.

I knew it was out of control when a looked at a house in Livermore CA which was to describe it with any other word besides "DUMP" doesn't fit it, sold for more than asking price. This was in 2003.

That's when I realized things were out of control just like a teenage kegger party. Now the hangover has kicked in because the party is over.

Anonymous said...

paul e. math:

"They will resent you for telling the truth. They take it as a personal insult..."

Nothing is more truthful than that. In fact, they're so full of denial that by the time they realize it, it's too late. These are the people that, they call themselves investors or think they are, but only in name and not in practice. Professional investors rely in numbers and knows when to get out. They don't allow their emotions to rule.

Frankly, I was the only one (contrarian) in my extended family and friends. I have to gather lots of information, especially graphs & other data, to make my case. Inspite of that, they try to shoot the messenger and not the message. Only now that they've realized, but were not able to get out. The funny part is that they are now trying to give some feelers hoping that I will give them some few suggestions on how to get out. My answer, I don't know "squat" about it. It's one of those reverse psychology or psy war.LOL!

a.creampuff said...

"Know" is too strong a term, but I think I am much better informed than I was, even a year or two ago when it was clear prices were jacked up by a speculative bubble. I don't think most people have the full range of information, and that's the key to begin formulating an educated guess as to the likely outcome of the apparent tinderbox conditions of the economy. No one knows the future, but I have reason to suspect that people are not fully informed.
For example, I like the 200-year plot of housing cost versus income adjusted for inflation. How can you claim an informed opinion until having seen that chart? Unlike many people, I always allow that I could be wrong. "What if I am?" is also useful to bear in mind. The sanguine folks stand to suffer, one would think. The worry-warts are more likely to be prepared - a good thing even if they are proved wrong.

Anonymous said...

Bork, why do you want to surf gay porn?

Anonymous said...

Cause he's a Liberal FAG!!!!!

That was redundant!

uknowwhoiyam said...

HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day

How many of you expert investors (cough, cough) missed this great month in the stock market?

How'd gold and silver do in August? LOL.

uknowwhoiyam said...

How'd gold and silver do in August? LOL.

QUICK! Buy now! Get rid of those useless fiat reserve notes! Remember, God ain't makin' any more gold!

Oh, man, I slay me.

Anonymous said...

Let's all wait to see what borkafatty's got to say about this, before we make a decision!!!