The Housing Bubble as four seasons - what season are we in today?
Winter ended with the Fed lowering to 1%. Spring took off with David Lereah's "are you missing the bubble" book. Summer started with lines at new home developments, ended with everyone telling you real estate never goes down. Fall started with Phoenix at 10,000 listings, ended with the new home and existing home numbers we saw a few days ago and Phoenix with 54,000 listings.
This is the first week of winter. And it's going to be a long one...
Hat-tip Vivaldi for the music.
September 02, 2006
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No, it's not yet winter. That will be when Foreclosure Nation comes to pass and there's been 3 years of yoy price declines nationally.
Right now, it's hurricane season.
usually the first days of winter still feel like fall for most people
The leaves are changing color, Fall has started
'The Big Fall'
vivaldi, nice
No Brainer....
its Fall.
NIZE NOTES:
Word Is Getting Out on the Real Estate Collapse
Things are going to get interesting very soon. It seems as though word is getting out on the problems in the housing market. When the word is fully out, sales will go from being slow to being dead. No one will be buying, hell, no one will even be looking. Anyone who will need to get out of some real estate, or is forced out, will only be able do so at huge discount prices.
How far has the word traveled on the weakening housing market? Here's a reporter in Los Angeles writing about the real estate market. And she is getting unsolicited advice to wait because the market is about to collapse!!
Lisa Napoli reports for the LA Downtown News:
It's impolite to talk about money, but let's just say, for purposes of making my point for this story, that right now I have a big chunk of change in the bank. After months of waiting, the sale of my beloved New York City apartment, where I lived for two-and-a-half years before moving to Downtown [Los Angeles] in 2004, finally went through.
Now the task of finding a permanent home in or around Downtown...- as permanent as anything is these days, of course - can officially begin...
That fateful day after closing, I marched to the bank in Downtown L.A. and deposited a whopper of a check that would make up for the pain of six months of deficit spending. The teller looked at me curiously - I don't look like someone who would have more than a hundred bucks on them at any given time...
...all of a sudden everyone became a real estate advisor. Including the bank teller! "Don't buy just yet, honey, the market's gonna tank," she said, wisely, as I explained the reason for my sudden windfall...
Finally, at a party given at the home of a friend of mine who bought in Echo Park before prices got really outrageous, I met someone whose advice I bought into. "Wait till all those people with Mickey Mouse loans start to foreclose," he said. "Give it six months. Just watch."
Of Course, this crash is going to last a lot longer than six months, but the word is starting to get out--and that means we are very near stage two of the collapse where slowing sales turn into declining prices.
Stage one of the crisis is caused completely by the Federal Reserve raising interest rates and, thus, cutting down on the amount of new money created. Stage two of the crisis starts when many people begin to be aware of problems in the real estate market. This causes sentiment about thrends in the market to change from positive to negative. Thus stage two combines the stage one factor of the Fed choking the real estate market, with the added negative of opinion about real estate changing. Stage three will occur when the factors in stage one and two are combined with mass foreclosures, forced sales and homeowners walking away from their properties-if they can.
Fall. Will Winter be a few light dustings, or several 3-foot bizzards and record lows? That's the interesting Q.
I wonder how much longer they can artificially inflate home prices? The REIC, FED/banks and local/state governments do not want to see prices fall. Those are powerful forces that can artificially inflate prices or massage the numbers to keep them looking good or better than reality.
It's early fall.
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