September 12, 2006
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A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
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37 comments:
Pretty soon we will be at "knees and toes."
Yo Keith, wassup? Is it all downhill from here or what?
Bulls rule, bears cower
Nasdaq closes at 3-month highs, Dow at 4-month highs as stocks surge on a mix of falling oil prices, lower bond yields, upbeat corporate news.
September 12 2006: 4:11 PM EDT
NEW YORK (CNNMoney.com) -- Stocks rallied Tuesday afternoon as sharply lower crude prices and falling Treasury bond yields revived optimism about the economy and consumer spending.
You got it Boss!!!
Soon we'll see who is left standing. And there won't be meny of us.
I'm hoping for gold to drop to 500. Anything below that, and I'm backing up the truck.
This market has gone over the top. I expected the market to do something like this before the election. But, I didn't expect it this soon.
The only thing I can think of, is that the powers that be want the Dems to take one or both of the houses.
Maybe a little protectionizm to keep all of those worthless dollars from coming in and buying up the country as they de-value.
Just one question....
Is it time to cover on your Ford Short?
H&S patterns are nortorious for failing to resolve bearishly. for whatever reason, the market is climbing the proverbial "wall of worry" and refusing to buckle to the bears' desires. and this as we are into the worst performing 6- to 8-week period of the 4-yr. and presidential cycles.
negative real growth of the monetary base, inverted yield curve, negative growth of outstanding consumer credit, and real M2 growth below 1% have in the past never simultaneously occurred since the early '50s w/o a bear market and recession occurring. 100% probability of a bear market and recession based on this precedent. why is it different this time?
why has the market not caved yet, as the historical precedent strongly suggests it should? beats me.
could it be that everyone knows this and central bankers and hedge funds are jumping the gun to try to get ahead of the curve?
falling commodities prices implying slowing inflation and lower rates ahead?
the election?
war vs. iran and syria?
market already anticipating a fed rate cut? options expiration?
all of the above? none of the above?
who the bloody fook knows. i surely don't. i know virtually no one who is making money in this god-forsaken market. i guess this is the way it's supposed to be during a secular bear market. all of us, bulls and bears alike, get our testicles handed to us on a regular basis until we have no money or testicles left to stay in the game.
Alot of bets out there holding their money. Lots of hungry pro's.
"Head, shoulders, knees and toes, knees and toes!"
God, I love that song!
Come on baby, just one more bubble! Just give to me! Baby needs a new pair of shoes...
Keith - you are so hysterically bad at this stuff it is utterly amazing.
How is your COP doing? Gold? Ebay?
Ever since you published your manifesto, the market has gone nuts.
Keep up the good work!
autofx - why do you say the same shiat all the time??
Get new.
Get bold.
Freak'n borin'
I think "raging bull sheet" has it correct. Climbing the "wall of worry"
Your A$$ is right at your head in the chart!
"Pretty soon we will be at "knees and toes."
Agreed.
The virtual wine and cheese party will continue until the election.
Then, watch out below...
as loyal hp'ers know, I moved into cash two weeks ago, except for my 2012 expiration cop options, and short puts on retailers
that just proves you are a total idiot novice trader. That is not a head and shoulders. Wow, scary bro!
nice call on COP gold and oil. Dumb and dumberererer
It's definitely hard to make money in this market. Stocks suck, btw. the 1990's are way over. Stocks have sucked for decades.
I'm in metals and cash. Still up 14%, and debt free including the mortgage.
Amazing how oil prices just dropped. Folks in China and India must suddenly need less of it this week - right?
The only reason we are in Iraq is to keep their oil off the world market. GIs being maimed and killed so Bush gets rich.
No way the market will crash you dumb-asses - there is a mountain of $$$ parked in Texas and SArabia waiting to be deployed. You added to it suckers, with your contributions at the pump.
America & Wall Street Rule!!!
Keith, cut out the childish crap - there are some incredibly smart people who have planned these plays, and all WILL go as planned.
That chart doesn't really look like a head and shoulders to me... More like a rabbit (just the head).
Your all idiots! Can't you see it's a mountain range with a diving board!
BUY GOLD! OR DON'T! IT'S GONNA GO UP! UNLESS IT GOES DOWN! QUIT SPECULATING! IT GOES UP, DOWN, OR STAYS THE SAME! LIFE GOES ON! YOU CAN AFFORD IT OR YOU CAN'T! YOU LIKE IT OR YOU DON'T!
Richard,
Brother, shut the F up. At least autofx and Keith and others stick their neck out on the line. All you ever do is say stupid shit out from left field and sound ridiculous.
Take a stand somewhere and stick to it. And if your wrong, admit it.
Jerk.
What the F*ck is going on?
The Home Builders and Mortgage companies were UP 5% today and up yesterday.
I've got puts 2 and 3 months out on CTX, TOL, FNM, LEND and NEW and they are going up!
I even read a good article that CTX was heavily in debt and likely to go bankrupt?
Who the heck is buying these soon-to-sink-like-the-Titanic stocks?
I would wait for gold to go back to $400. Look at the 30 yr profile. It seems the price is recovering from frothing right now. 30 yr gold
Anon: I still hold a few homebuilding puts too. (May buy some more!) Look at what HOV did in early Aug. Exactly what they are doing now. 25 to 30 in 2-3 weeks then 30 to 25 in 5 days.
I believe there are some hedge funds who actually believe this is the bottom for the homebuilders. They made some big bets on the 2-4X volume days recently. There's some optimists who believe the housing crash will be done in 6-8 months. If this is true, then buy homebuilders now. But we all know that we haven't even barely started the housing crash, so this play is wrong. When they discover this the funds will blow out their holdings in another 2-4X volume day and the shorts will pile on again and we'll go 10-20% lower than the previous lows.
What we need is a catalyst. A really bad import prices and CPI this week and some hawkish fed jawboning could just do it. Anyone else notice how the fed officials have been on a hawkish bias in recent speeches? They don't usually do that for no reason: remember them talking unusually dovish before Aug's meeting? I mean, come on, Yellen hawkish?
If the homebuilders match or beat the Aug highs, I'm throwing on more bets, probably Jan 2007 puts.
the guy next to me at work is getting killed on CTX and HOV puts. It is funny that people are actually short these stocks in the last 6 weeks. Could the market's sentiment gotten any more negative on these? I doubt it. How crazy if these rally another 10%. Im amagine the bleeding from all the clueless housing bear shorts who are trying to be traders.
Sentiment on homebuilders can get way worse. The whole way down the value guys were getting antsy, touting 4-5 PE multiples. But the earnings keep falling, guidance keeps falling. Builders who don't guide lower now just revise lower later.
The only question is: are homebuilders going to increase earnings in 6-8 months? Secondary is: are long rates going up? Most everyone here will agree homebuilder earnings are going to decline for YEARS. My opinion is 10-y rates are going to shoot through the roof after this bull-trap rally.
MSM has not been overly negative on homebuilders. All of them, including Cramer, have been hinting you should look at them for months now. Of course, Cramer said July 2005 to buy & hold homebuilders as they were "land banks" and won't be affected by the fed raising rates. Good call Cramer! 50% crash later...
There has been no indication of capitulation or revulsion in either the stocks or the homes themselves. Remember Keith's stages-of-crashes graphic? Sure, the stocks will lead the actual houses, but not by more than 6-8 months.
As an exercise, call up a chart of the builders that were around in the fall of 1990. Look at how they bottomed then. Compare to now. Also, check the timing. Lastly, remember that the "bubble" of 1990 was miniscule compared to the bubble of today. They dropped 50% in 1990 so they should drop much farther in this round.
Watch for insane run-ups and buy puts when it looks silly. Just keep the expiration out a few months to make sure you don't get hosed by short-term manipulation and insanity.
Lastly, I can afford to hold my puts through the last few weeks as I bought them summer 2005. Look at a chart.
Hmmm, can this head and shoulders phenomena be used to analyze the "total credit market debt" chart?
Roidy
URL: www.crestmontresearch.com
/pdfs/i%20rate%20Gross%20Debt.pdf
They are printing, the Fed literally printed up another $4,979 million in actual cash last week, which I round off to $5 billion, bringing total dollars of Cash in Circulation to $798.573 billion.
I know what you are thinking. That sharp Mogambo-honed brain (SMHB) of yours is saying "Hmmm! I am perplexed by the fact that there is only $798 billion in actual cash in existence, and my wonderful SMHB wonders how that little bit of money can produce an $11 trillion economy, a national debt of $9 trillion, consumer indebtedness that is over $30 trillion, $80 trillion in accrued federal government liabilities, $450 trillion in derivatives, a $600 billion annual federal budget deficit, and an $800 billion trade/current account deficit. How is this possible? Or is The Mogambo just an idiot like everyone says?"
OT: Went to the local sandwich shop across the street from where I work to get my once a week treat for myself (cheaper to bring my own lunch). Anyway I was ordering my sandwich, and the owner was there, whom I have known for years, and this place is always hoping at least a 15 minute wait for a sandwich.
Last few time I have been going in there I noticed the wait time has been like 5 minutes for a sandwich..So i was bullshitting and asked the owner what was up?
He said things have never slowed this much in his 30 years of ownership of this subshop..on a side conversation he told me he layed off 2 people and might have to let 1 mre go
( this is an 8 person place that busy)
So I said what do you think the problem is? and I quote"
" Construction is dead and people are very money tight he said "
This town has gone from Boom to gloom I even see it in the traffic in the mornings. All this and we still have 5 months left till the New Year...Never mind the Holiday season. Retail better start putting togeather holiday deals now cause it is going to be very painfull for the walmarts.
peace!
Oh and let me add this to the economy expansion:
http://tinyurl.com/h9zl6
I am running Puts on a shortage of undergarments who wants in??????
Those Spongebob Square pants Boxer shorts your kids got you for christmas last year are looking better and better everyday.
Anon 8:16:17 AM
Google Plunge Protection Team, that probably has a lot to do with the odd behavior of the housing stocks. Is anyone, especially smart fund managers, thinking builder stocks have hit bottom, certainly not. All of these builder are rapidly increasing inventory (and can't stop now) heading full bore into this huge slow down. No where to go but down. However the Gov. will keep it from being easy to make money, instead they'll use it to thier advantage. The Gov. will use the market to fleece millions of bubble $$$ from the public, back into Gov. coffers.
Borkafatty,
You’ve made a number of comments about being squeezed; having a hard time making ends meet, things being expensive.
Well, I gotta tell you, despite all the posters here who claim to have ~$200K cash after unloading their house at the peak, as well as those who brag about having $1 million in the bank, there are a lot of us who are struggling just to keep from being buried by bills thanks to the rising cost of living.
Maybe us HP’ers who aren’t wealthy can offer some money-saving tips to one another, as well as to those folks who purchased a home with an option ARM loan and the laid-off construction workers. Let me start by suggesting the following:
1. Kick the “latte-a-day” habit.
2. Lose the cell phone. (Don’t people look pretty stupid driving around with one glued to their ear, anyway?)
3. Dump the gas-hog SUV and find yourself a decent, cheap used, gas-miser to get around in, and get out of the habit of jackrabbiting from red light to red light.
4. Learn to maintain your vehicle yourself - keep the tires inflated properly, perform regular tune-ups, and replace all the belts & hoses every 2 years (most breakdowns are due to neglecting this, and they cost $$$ plus being a big hassle).
5. Give up the junk food and restaurant habit. Prepare your own food from scratch as much as possible. (You may even find that you feel better after cutting your intake of processed foods & preservatives.) Can’t find the time to cook? Try unplugging your TV and you’ll be surprised at how much more free time you will have!
6. Challenge your county property tax statement the next time you receive one. Did you know that most people who try this succeed in lowering their taxes? (Of course you will need to back up your claim with comps or other data.)
7. Every single time you purchase something, ask yourself, “Do I NEED this or do I just want this?” Remember, every dime you spend today takes away from what you will need for the uncertain future we all face.
8. Shop at thrift stores. Hey - there is no shame in this whatsoever - unless you are one of these insecure people who think that they are just too good to buy used. (This is also one way to stop sending to your money to China. If you don’t like the disturbing trend of everybody buying things from China, this is how you begin to fight it. It may not bring jobs back to America, but it won’t contribute to the offshoring of more jobs, either.)
9. Buy things at garage & yard sales. #8 also applies here, as well as #7 - “Do I NEED this or do I just want this?”
10. Stay away from the malls.
11. Stock up on food & other consumables whenever they’re on sale.
12. Got some big spenders living in your household? You need to work on helping them curb their habits.
13. Plant a garden and start growing some of your own food.
Mammoth forgot the most important one as suggested by i belive Northwest when they laid off a bunch of workers...
14. Dumpster dive
Cheers Anonymous
I agree, funny thing to I just ditched the Lan line phone last week, I was paying $200 a month just for phone bills (cell and lan line combined) see ya lan line, savings of a $100 a month..thank you.
I prepare my own lunch but do treat myself once and awhile. I would not bring my car to a shop if my life depended on it, i refuse to pay for that guys trip to disney on my tab.
Other than that i can relate with you 100%
You mean "land line"?
ya land line, sorry was upset over the car accident i just got into ..lame to say the least!
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