Gee, what a shock, eh HP'ers?
Man, I wish the "analysts" would read HP - then they wouldn't be so "shocked" at the stream of horrific housing numbers pouring in. And it's just gonna get worse and worse and worse... And no more homebuilding = no more homebuilding jobs = even faster decline in homebuilding
Get ready for a wild ride this week BTW... Cash is king.
Home builders slammed on the brakes in August as starts on new homes sank to their lowest level in more than three years, and a drop in permits signaled more weakness ahead for the real estate market.
Housing starts sank to an annual rate of 1.67 million last month from July's 1.77 million pace, the Census Bureau reported Tuesday. That marked a 6 percent decline from July and a nearly 20 percent drop from a year earlier.
Starts are at the lowest level since April 2003. It also marked the sixth time in the last seven months that starts have fallen from the previous month's level.
"Until we see a recovery in housing permits, it is unlikely that we have seen the bottom," said Phillip Neuhart, an economist with Wachovia.
The inventory of completed new homes on the market for sale hit a record high in July, according to a separate government report, and that glut of homes on the market has put downward pressure on all home prices.
"2004 and 2005 were clearly excessive, far beyond potential, and that's come home to roost," Seiders said. "We probably won't see a bottoming until the middle of next year, but we could well be running below potential into 2008."
Home building has become an important segment of the economy, and the weakness in building could put a crimp in hiring and economic activity for years to come.
September 19, 2006
FLASH: Housing starts tumble (again), real estate market even weaker than analyst forecasts, HP'ers ask why analysts are so dumb
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so long, construction jobs, was nice knowin ya
funny that this new did not make it to the MSM, not shocking tho.
http://tinyurl.com/qdjwt
What you continue to see in the marketplace is a form of "gambling", only this form of gambling is the best kind........where the odds are against the house. People on the "sidelines" are gambling as to whether or not prices are going to continue to decline, and will continue to do so until they see or hear differently. Watching while an asset (and I use the term loosly) devalues to the point that this housing market has, envigorates people to wait until that perfect wave comes that they can ride to financial freedom again. What realtors and builders have to understand is that the people on the "sidelines" will not be satisfied with the housing decline until they find it affordable to THEM. NOT TO THE BUILDERS. A house is ONLY worth what some one else will pay for it. You don't need an economic degree for that.
now that the word is out that housing is a depreciating asset, if you buy today you'll be upside down tomorrow, and the whole promise of future appreciation is gone, well, then you're down in people's minds to just the fair value of the asset.
I would suggest $500,000 for a 1-bed apartment in Phoenix is not "fair value" in any sane person's mind. Especially when such a unit would rent for about 30 cents on the cost of ownership dollar
Look out below. The myth has been busted, the ponzi scheme is over, and now the mad rush to the exits is fully underway
Homebuilder stocks up 20% since Aug....
Homebuilder stocks up 20% since Aug....
FYI.
That's called 'pump and dump'.
"Homebuilder stocks up 20% since Aug"
DR Horton down about %40 since January....So your point is?
Nonsense? Hardly. I spoke with a real estate agent the other day that has not sold a home in three months. His wife works for a title company and was just laid off. He's now sending out applications for a job in his former field of banking. Lots of luck. He's been out of the field for five years, and he's 54 years old. They have two kids in college and a hefty mortgage. Oh, by the way, did I mention they own three flip properties that they can't sell.
LMAO at Mr. real Estate Agent. Buddy you got what you deserved. Hope you lose EVERYTHING.
I am loving these sob stories about losers who bought homes they had no use for and are now unable to sell them just to be even. Fill your pants losers because every day you lose more $ you didn't deserve to have in the first place.
price still climbing in Utah, austin, bainbridge island WA. No gloom and doom. Lots of work everywhere. In socal it hard to find a contractor because their so busy.
this is the tip of the Ice Berg, wait till 07..what was that famous recording from the hindenburg
"Oh The Humanity"
You mean the price of my house could fall below it's current value? Oh my gawd, you mean my assessed value will drop AGAIN next year (as did my taxes). You mean I will pay even less in taxes on the HOUSE I LIVE IN!. Oh my. SAWEEEEEEEETTTTTT!!!!! Will I be poorer? No because I am not an idiot who thinks my house is an ATM.
You guy's HAVE to read Mish's post today, UNFREAKINBELIEVABLE!!
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/
sorry,
http://globaleconomicanalysis.
blogspot.com/
Some sellers across the U.S. must reduce their expectations, even those who don't move. Edward Brown, 47, a Florida real estate investor, says he's financially overextended and needs to sell a three-bedroom house in Cape Coral, Florida. He's asking $579,000 -- $20,000 less than he paid for the property a year ago.
``No one expected the market to drop so quickly,'' he says. ``There are a lot of people like me who are caught in a pickle.''
Can we all agree that this guy is a total idiot? No one did huh? Those with common sense did. Those who are borderline retarded didn't.
Homebuilder stocks up 20% since Aug....
Enron shares were also up in 2001,...and what happend on Nov 30, 2001?
The hilarious thing is people talking about things coming back up soon. On this reasoning they are buying the home building stocks.
They just don't get the fact we've had the biggest real estate mania in the history of the US, and it will be many many years before prices start recovering...first we have to have a few years, at least, of declining prices.
When people can once again buy a home with the mortgage payment being around 30% of their income..then things will stabilize. We are a LONG ways from being there in most areas.
prof - thanks - just posted
it's funny that realtors post that homebuilders have bounced from the dead 10% since their lows
it's called short covering
You mean the price of my house could fall below it's current value? Oh my gawd, you mean my assessed value will drop AGAIN next year (as did my taxes). You mean I will pay even less in taxes on the HOUSE I LIVE IN!.
Dont count on it that money has already been encumbered, unless the local city or town declares layoffs, your assessment may drop but the cost per thousand will rise..so dont hold your breath to long you might faint.
What is the opinion of others about a possible fed increase this week, funny I have not heard much talk of this at all.
Tell me that would not send bonds into a black hole type situation and a sell-off in the short end of the Treasury bond. Now that would be news..we shall see..
no prediction comment
"price still climbing in Utah, austin, bainbridge island WA. No gloom and doom. Lots of work everywhere. In socal it hard to find a contractor because their so busy."
LMAO. Smoke that doobie, buddy. Seems to have some hallucinagentic in it.
"Dont count on it that money has already been encumbered, unless the local city or town declares layoffs, your assessment may drop but the cost per thousand will rise..so dont hold your breath to long you might faint."
Dude I live in Florida. Our taxes at most can go up only 3% per year because of 'Save our Homes'. And like I said, taxes went down last year and if the value of houses plummet, they will go down again.
Like I said dont hold your breath....dude
funny that david lereah (posting as anon) is down to three towns in the entire usa where real estate isn't getting killed yet
San Diego local radio today Tues. 19th! "Home sales Down 34% in Aug over last year Aug!"
"Dude I live in Florida. Our taxes at most can go up only 3% per year because of 'Save our Homes'."
And I live in California, where it's the same deal due to Prop 13. (Which was enacted for the same reason.) The flip side of this (found out the hard way during the last crash) is that your taxes can only DROP 3% a year no matter how much the value drops.
oh oh everyone should check out these vids:
http://bullnotbull.blogspot.com/
bookmark it !!!
Utah, Austin, and other parts of the country might be increasing in value still, but I seem to see signs of them topping. These regions were last to the game. It reminds me of the dot bomb crash. While the big caps were crashing, some of the second tier stocks went up for a period of time as people sold their losers and bought these stocks which were still going up. These temporary winning RE regions will crash too, just give it some time.
Wow Utah and Austin going up. LMAO. IT used to be California, Florida, NY, Mass, Chicago....now it's down to Utah and Austin. I think that might be a speed bump on the steep ride down the mountainside.
"Homebuilder stocks up 20% since Aug...."
In that case use everything down to your last dime and sell the shirt off your back and buy them.
In 12 months you'll be sat on a beach in the Bahamas, sipping pina coladas, being waited on hand and foot without a care in the world.
I agree austin is topping. Inventory appears to slightly be increasing, but there are still some californians here buying. I don't understand how anyone could buy a "cash flow negative" rental property. There are some duplexes near us, that are in need of work, and they are listed around 400k. One of the "selling points" was that one unit was rented for 1100 a month. How does that make any sense at all? The taxes alone are about 6k a year on a property like that. You would be loosing a thousand a month, and have the stress of being a landlord also.
Give me a break on Utah and Austin, nothing big at all. Compared to the massive bubbles in the West, Florida and New England, they are pitifull, even though they have modestly risen, they have not stopped the tide of housing correction, when starts fall beyond 1,500, recession a cometh.
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