skip to main |
skip to sidebar
A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
About Me
HP blogs & websites
- AmericaPANIC
- Angry Bear
- Angry Renter
- Bank Implode-O-Meter
- Big Picture
- Blown Mortgage
- boom 2 bust
- Bubble Blog News
- Bubble Markets
- Bubble Meter
- BusinessWeek Hot Property
- Calculated Risk
- Case Shiller Graphs
- Charles Smith
- CNBC Realty Check
- Contrarian Chronicles
- Countrywide Foreclosures
- Deflationland
- Denninger Market Ticker
- Dirty Scottsdale
- Dollar collapse
- Dr. Housing Bubble
- Drudge Report
- Fed Up USA Protest
- Financial Sense
- firedoglake
- Flippers in Trouble
- Foreclosure Data
- Gawker
- Gold equals money blog
- Gold Prices
- High Probability kid
- homegain blog
- Housebubble blog
- Housing Blog Recap
- Housing Bubble Bust
- housing bubble hall of shame
- Housing Doom
- Housing Fear
- Housing Tracker
- Housing Watch Price Tracker
- Housing Wire
- I Can't Sell My House
- Infectious Greed
- Inventory Overload (realtor)
- Irvine housing blog
- itulip
- J-walk blog
- Kitco
- Kunstler
- LA Times Bubble Blog
- LA Westside Bubble
- Lasner on Real Estate (OC)
- Lawrence Yun Watch
- Long Island Bubble
- Marin Bubble
- Media - BusinessWeek
- Media - Financial Times
- Media - New York Times
- Media - News Hounds
- Media - Olbermann Blog
- Media - TV Newser
- Media - Wall Street Journal
- Media Matters
- millionaire mommy
- Mish's Global Economic
- ML Implode-o-Meter
- Moneyfiles Bubble Blog
- Mortgage Fraud Blog
- Mortgage Insider
- Mortgage Ledger
- mortgagefit portal
- My Two Cents Blog
- National Mortgage News
- News: Reddit
- Northern New Jersey Bubble Blog
- NYC bubble
- Paper Economy Blog
- Paranoid Ben's boring blog
- Patrick.net
- PeakOil - Life After the oil crash
- Phoenix Flippers in Trouble
- Piggington
- PIMCO Bill Gross
- Politics - C-Span Videos
- Politics - Dick Morris
- Politics - First Read
- Politics - FreeRepublic GOP Talking Points
- Politics - Huffington
- Politics - Kos
- Politics - Malkin
- Politics - National Journal
- Politics - Politico
- Politics - PoliticsTV.com
- Politics - realclearpolitics.com
- Politics - RedState GOP Talking Points
- Politics - The Note
- Politics - TPM Cafe
- Portland Oregon Bubble
- Prudent Investor
- Ramen Recipes for Realtors
- rancid truth
- Real Clear Politics
- Real Estate & Housing Outlook
- Real Estate Bloggers
- Real Estate Decline
- Redfin.com
- Republicans Are Assholes
- Sacramento Landing
- Scottsdale Sucks
- Seattle Housing Blog
- SlackerRevolution
- SoCal Bubble
- Soot & Ashes - New from HousingPANIC
- Speculative Bubble
- Stocks - Blogging Stocks
- Stocks - Bob Brinker
- Stocks - Cramer Mad Money Videos
- Stocks - DealBreaker
- Stocks - Denninger
- Stocks - Financial Times
- Stocks - Forex expert
- Stocks - I Bank Coin
- Stocks - Market Ticker
- Stocks - Money Week
- Stocks - Motley Fool Caps
- Stocks - Option Addict
- Stocks - Options Trader
- Stocks - Portfolio.com
- Stocks - RealClearMarkets
- Stocks - Seeking Alpha
- Stocks - TheStreet.com
- Stop the Mortgage Bailout
- the greenspan mess
- The Superficial
- Trulia
- Truth about mortgage blog
- UK House Bubble
- Video - Blip Radical TV
- Video - BrassCheckTV
- Video - Countdown
- Video - Fox Business
- Video - Movietone News
- Video - NBC News
- Video: Bloomberg Live
- Video: BNN Bubble News
- Video: C-span Junkie
- Video: CNN Live
- Video: Crooks and Liars
- Video: Daily Show
- Video: Housing Crash TV
- Video: Jim Cramer
- Video: MSNBC
- Video: PBS Frontline
- Video: Peter Schiff EuroPacific
- Video: Politics Videos
- Video: Presidential Debates
- Video: TPMTV
- Vigilant Investor
- Voice of San Diego
- What Bubble?
- Wiki US Bubble
- Zillow.com
- zz HP Mandatory Terms of Use
Blog Archive
- February 2022 (1)
- August 2018 (1)
- November 2016 (1)
- June 2013 (1)
- December 2010 (1)
- November 2008 (22)
- October 2008 (155)
- September 2008 (164)
- August 2008 (141)
- July 2008 (108)
- June 2008 (129)
- May 2008 (128)
- April 2008 (161)
- March 2008 (198)
- February 2008 (168)
- January 2008 (190)
- December 2007 (151)
- November 2007 (132)
- October 2007 (146)
- September 2007 (157)
- August 2007 (143)
- July 2007 (163)
- June 2007 (147)
- May 2007 (153)
- April 2007 (135)
- March 2007 (118)
- February 2007 (147)
- January 2007 (138)
- December 2006 (157)
- November 2006 (154)
- October 2006 (193)
- September 2006 (199)
- August 2006 (182)
- July 2006 (184)
- June 2006 (140)
- May 2006 (200)
- April 2006 (166)
- March 2006 (154)
- February 2006 (105)
- January 2006 (74)
- December 2005 (119)
- November 2005 (132)
16 comments:
Calgary's different: really.
It's because of oil sands. Huge money is moving into Alberta, and they have a worker shortage. Wages are going up very quickly.
Why else live in Alberta?
Yeah but Calgary has always been a boom or bust town. Its booming now creating a mass immigration into the city but booms don't last forever. One day it will end and all the extra labour in the province will leave and go somewhere else.
Like you said, why else live in Alberta. If one day, the jobs dry up, and it WILL happen, RE prices will come down hard, especially in the outskirts of the city.
i agree....seriously Calgary is the new Saudi Arabia.....it will only get easier and more lucrative for oil sand as technology develops and oil remains high
O Canada
To add to my comment: The Canadian RE market is still strong compared to the US market. If the US market takes the Cdn market down, there would likely be a 6-18 month lag (just a pure guess). Also, I should add that the fundamentals of the oil and gas industry remain fairly strong right now, but a RE downturn in the US could result in lower oil prices if recession hits.
Oh, it's different in Calgary all right. We've had a Boom/bust cycle in recent enough history that the locals can remember it. I own a house in Calgary, and even its assessed value has gone up at bubble rates. The RE market is pretty strong right now, but there's a lot of inventory coming on now, and there should be some major reductions in prices.
I'm sure someday soon the boom will end, and a bunch of overextended home buyers will have their asses handed to them on a platter, but that's how it goes. It probably won't even affect my taxes too much unless the assessment on the house makes it worth disproportionately more (or less) than other houses.
IIRC, the assessed value of the house is around $230k CAD, and we pay around 1600 per annum for property/school tax.
anecdotally, a friend of my wife sold their house in Tuscany for around 600k. A 3 bedroom bungalow in Brentwood sold after its price was dropped to 397k, but it needed some work. I see lots of for sale signs though, and I think they're lasting longer than they were before.
They're "condofying" this small office building in Varsity Estates next to the golf course, but it's been taking a long time to complete. They had a difficult time getting the required variances for the height of the structure, and the number of hoops they had to jump through to get the permits was substantial. Maybe the bubble is still on here, but I'd be concerned about getting projects done, with the market cooling and winter coming and all.
Keith,
OT on this particular topic but relevant to your earlier post regarding should you write a book.
If you recall, I suggested you contact John Rubino, who has authored several books on the dollar, housing, and other subjects.
Well, I found his e-mail address should you wish to follow up with him:
john@dollarcollapse.com
Again, I urge you to get in touch with John, have him view your site (if he hasn't already) and try to cut a deal for your book idea.
Good luck with your endeavor. I believe you would do well if you use the same style of writing and graphics as on this site.
Take care,
Butch
supply, meet demand
could those two charts be more discongruent?
Funny you should mention Calgary as I was just there visiting my brother.
Yes, it's about supply and demand. With high oil prices, lots of high-paying jobs and the employees who filled them there was a surge in demand for homes in Calgary. Because of how long it takes to get approval, clear and develop a package of land, the supply curve is highly inelastic over the short-term. So the equilibrium price just keeps rising.
However, in a place like Calgary with plenty of land for development along its outskirts, the supply curve is highly elastic over the long term. When supply catches up to demand you have a much lower equilibrium price.
Calgary is unique, but not different. The laws of supply and demand still function and their home prices are also heading for a fall as you see the homes for sale numbers coming back up.
Canadian Real Estate
Buildable Land = Larger than the USA total land mass.
Population = About that of California.
they changed the CPI index several times since the charts beginning.
the "real dollars" concept is misgiven
Let's all wait to see what borkafatty's got to say about this topic!
I like Bork the Dork, but I like Butch more. Kiss Kiss
One other th..the topc graph is a biingt misleading. I bet in all Canadian markets, due to the weather, there is a strong seasonal component. I would prefer to see a graph that analyzes inventory over a few years rather than intra-year.
Don't forget that 90% of the Canadian Population lives with 100 miles of the South Canadian/US border.
As a Canadian 2 provinces over from Calgary, I can certainly confirm the housing bubble mania is just as crazy in Canada as it is in the USA. My city's a relative nothing town in the middle of nowhere and our prices are going through the roof. Front page headlines in the paper at least once a month about new record prices/sales.
The only difference I can see is that exotic mortgages are relatively rare in Canada. Everyone here does fixed 5y term 10/15y am and monthly-var. No option-arm, neg-am, no-doc, no-dp loans here from what I can gather from chatting with all my recent-home-upgraded friends. Hmm, but HELOC's (probably mostly var) are very popular here.
But perhaps since Canadians are so big on the continuous-variable (read: no lag from rate rise to payment pain), that will make up for the lack of neg-am/no-dp. I think we're as "friggin doomed" (as Mogambo would say" as our friends to the south.
The inventory and exponential-price-curve pics Keith posted were eye-openers to me. We're farther along (and closer to the USA) than most think! I'd give it a 6-8mo lag at most compared to USA.
How about this:
http://www.cbc.ca/money/story/2006/09/29/ab-economy.html
The boom in Calgary is over as you can see from the article.
I was seriously considering to go to Calgary this spring as I heard about a boom. However, when I spent 3 weeks researching, it turned out I'd be paid less than in Ottawa that is officially more stagnant (and I tried many places plus have contacts there); my rent would be higher. And I am in the industry they say is booming: hi-tech.
People who were coming to Ottawa from Alberta (due to different reasons) told me about difference in their wages (they were paid much less in Calgary).
Here is vancouver:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/british-columbia/story/2005/07/28/bc_real-estate-bubble20050728.html
Here is Montreal:
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/montreal/story/2004/11/30/qc-cmhc20041130.html
New Brunswick (only on property tax so far ;):
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/new-brunswick/story/2004/03/09/nb_hightaxes20040309.html
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/prince-edward-island/story/2005/04/20/pe-realtax-20050420.html
http://www.cbc.ca/canada/newfoundland-labrador/story/2004/11/19/nf-city-housing-20041119.html
It is starting and will hit Canada a bit later than US.
I've been seeing so many "for sale" signs that were there for months (Ottawa). Seeing "new price" signs was very good - haven't seen it in ages.
FBs are still in denial, but it's coming regardless whether they want it or not.
David, and oil prices are already down, check it out.
Post a Comment