September 20, 2006

At today's "toxic mortgage" Senate hearings: "Our national economy is at significant risk if these loans fail in great numbers, as I fear they will"

Classic bubble behavior is when credit is finally tightened. The Fed did a good job of that (after keeping the faucet running wayyyy to long), but now the Senate might get involved too, regulating "toxic mortgages" and limiting the use of option arm, no down, no doc, teaser rate, interest only garbage loans.

Here's highlights from today's hearings. Sounds better than last week's backslapping NAR CYA-fest on the housing bubble.

Exotic mortgages sow confusion, senators told - Regulators to issue stricter guidelines to lenders soon

Homeowners don't fully understand the risks associated with taking on alternative mortgages that allow interest-only payments or negative amortization, federal officials told senators Wednesday.

At a hearing on so-called exotic mortgages before the Senate Banking Committee, U.S. banking regulators promised they would soon release guidance to lenders that would require greater disclosures to be made borrowers and recommend tighter credit standards for such loans.

In some cases, monthly payments could double or triple once the low "teaser rate" expires and payments are reset to cover the growing principal on the loan, said Sandra Thompson, acting director of supervision and consumer protection at the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp.

"The acceleration of the U.S. home price boom does appear to have been related to changes in the mortgage markets," Thompson said. "The greater availability of flexible mortgage structures probably allowed prices increased to outstrip growth in incomes to a greater extent that would otherwise have been the case.

"In addition, high-priced homes probably induced at least some borrowers to use interest-only or payment-option mortgages in order to afford their home," she testified.

"Our national economy is at significant risk if these loans fail in great numbers, as I fear they will," he said.

60 comments:

Anonymous said...

No houses will be sold in California once this guidance is passed.

Until prices drop 30%.

Anonymous said...

TRY 50%

Anonymous said...

OK FOLKS USE YOUR HEADS. WHY DOES IT TAKE THE SENATE SO LONG TO SEE THE TRAIN WRECK COMING.IT WAS SO OBVIOUS TO ALL OF US. PEOPLE WERE GETTING IN WAY OVER THEIR HEADS ESPECIALLY IN CA.
I AM AFRAID CA IS GOING TO GET KNOCKED BY AS MUCH AS 50%.
THE FOLKS THAT I FEEL SORRY FOR ARE THE 20 somethings. They are the only one's who have any excuse to say they really did not understand.
Well the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Maybe this is just because the rich are truly smarter.
Most people on this blog are intelligent. They had the foresight to see this coming. The problem with many of us including myself is we get caught up in our own intelligence. We could earn 5 to 6 times as much as we do. If we spent our time applying our knowledge, instead of wagging our tails. Let's post some articles about how to make money. Like strategies for shorting and stocks that will make money from this housing decline.

Larry said...

why not 80%?

Anonymous said...

Stop crying!
There is not going to be a bubble burst, the prices of houses will not come down much! The Fed is not going to raise rates anymore and they may lower them to help us all out!
You are all a bunch of cry babies!
Get over it and move on! If you don't make enough money to buy a house, get another job! Or you are just a lazy loser!

Anonymous said...

Re a little slow there Larry? Don't worry you can still work with all the guys in front of Home Depot. You speak english so you are a little qualified than them. But I would pick up the hispanics cause they would out work ur lazy realtor ass anyday of the week. So ur screwed. Take care.

Anonymous said...

Larry,
You are in Phoenix the hell-hole of the West. If CA went down 80% then Phoenix would be about worthless. Who want's to live in 118 degree pit of hell.

Anonymous said...

Anonymous said...

Stop crying!
There is not going to be a bubble burst, the prices of houses will not come down much! The Fed is not going to raise rates anymore and they may lower them to help us all out!

What's the matter idiot. Watching your home equity fall every day. Hoping we dont buy it back for a 65% discount.

Anonymous said...

larry is a TROLL!!

Anonymous said...

Larry I have a job for you------
My dog needs a babysitter. Think you can handle it?????

Bill said...

Stop crying!
There is not going to be a bubble burst, the prices of houses will not come down much! The Fed is not going to raise rates anymore and they may lower them to help us all out!

...Question is Heroin being passed out? Cause if it is pass some my way I want to get high to....

They ARE devaluing the dollar because of the high debt. I DO hope you're aware of that. Soon it will be worthless. And when everyone switches to the euro that will pretty much end the US markets entirely. But don't worry, all the Rich will simply move to England. Wealthy people have no borders and zero allegiance. They go where the money is.... Hey and I bet you think the Federal Reserve is actually a government organization

Anonymous said...

Larry is a loser troll and spammer. I hope Keith does a post on this two bit hack!

Anonymous said...

Larry's site states "option ARM's are not new, they go back to 1981" or something like that.

No $hit Larry, thanks for the update. However you forget to add that never before in the HISTORY of option ARM's have they been pushed on subprime lenders. (no bad loans, just bad borrowers is what you say right?)

Anonymous said...

said...

Homeowners trolling a bubble blog...now that's funny!

Yes, the fed will probably 'help' you out by allowing you to keep borrowing for a bit longer. Hell, maybe they'll even destroy the dollar just for little old you.
There is a word for folks like you with lifetime debt payments.

Serfs

Bow down before the one you serve
YOU got it dead on. It is amazing that people believe the rich care enough to buy them out. It is more like the rich can't wait for the market to tumble, buy it and sell it again to another SUCKER once the price doubles again.

Anonymous said...

Larry Nusrod has hands down the WORST site on the net

Anonymous said...

I'm not the brightest one in the bunch, I went in to carpentry right after high school 25 yrs ago, am having a good life for me and my family. After selling my house in oct/05 I cashed out and have been renting since. Our lifestyle is even better now than before, cash in the bank, rent is less than our old house payment, our rental house is bigger than our old house, kids are happier.
What I dont understand is I thought all the college ejumacated people would have already beat me to this great lifestyle I've stumbled across. Did the dumbing down of america work too well?

Anonymous said...

You guys are doing a great job frightening home sellers to sell their houses. There are some sellers that are selling their houses to buy cheaper latter.
Personally I do not think we will experience any big housing downturn. I know a lot of buyers waiting to buy cheaper loosing money in tax deductions. So far here in the Bay Area the market is softer but no big price drops.

Alex Broker
New Homes San Jose

Anonymous said...

Anon 6:43:29 wrote:
“WHY DOES IT TAKE THE SENATE SO LONG TO SEE THE TRAIN WRECK COMING.IT WAS SO OBVIOUS TO ALL OF US. PEOPLE WERE GETTING IN WAY OVER THEIR HEADS”
_______________________

So after billions of dollars are already loaned out via “toxic mortgages,” Congress is finally aware of the problem here, so now they are going to tighten the lending rules?

Isn’t this like closing the cage after the lion has already gotten out and mauled its victims?

Just an analogy, folks. Since all of these people willingly agreed to take out a loan that they did not understand, for a house that they could not afford, they are really not victims and I have very little sympathy for them.

The real victims are all the hardworking people who have been priced out of the opportunity to buy a home.

Anonymous said...

http://www.reviewjournal.com
/lvrj_home/2006/Sep-17-Sun-2006/business/8850620.html

Anonymous said...

"You guys are doing a great job frightening home sellers to sell their houses"

ladies and gentlemen let's welcome Alex to the blame game - lol

Anonymous said...

"The acceleration of the U.S. home price boom does appear to have been related to changes in the mortgage markets," Thompson said. "The greater availability of flexible mortgage structures probably allowed prices increased to outstrip growth in incomes to a greater extent that would otherwise have been the case.

Duh...

Even with a crystal ball these guys couldn't predict the obvious.

Anonymous said...

By borkafatty, at Wednesday, September 20, 2006 7:11:27 PM

Spot On Bork.

Anonymous said...

Carpenter Anon-

It's not the people who have book smarts who'll come through this better off financially.

It's the people with COMMON SENSE who'll make out like bandits.

Cograts on the sale and on having common sense.

Anonymous said...

Why not 80%? Yeah. Why not. Probably will happen in some areas, you FREAK.

Anonymous said...

The real victims are all the hardworking people who have been priced out of the opportunity to buy a home.

BUT THEY WILL NOT BE THE VICTIMS FOR LONG. THE PORR SCHMUCK WHO BOUGHT IN 05,BECAUSE OF SOME TROLL,THAT IS THE REAL VICTIM. THE SIDELINERS WILL BE AWARDED SOON.

Anonymous said...

Gotta love the homeowners that bought over the past 3 years, they are only a few notches below the flippers and realwhores on the totem pole of screwed. Lets compare the home they bought to the 60” plasma screen TV that was around 7K three years ago now going for around 2K at Wally World. Is this comparison too far fetched? I don’t think so!

Realize that the renters on this blog are not renters because they can’t afford a home. We rent because we are the smart money that sold to you idiots at the peak and went to the sidelines to wait this calamity out.

Anonymous said...

"we are the smart money that sold to you idiots at the peak"

Make That
Materialistic Idiots!

Anonymous said...

I WENT FOR THE SIDELINES
It was to obvious in Vegas, we were headed for a crash. I put my money into British pounds and then in a CD. It has done well since 2004. But now I don't know what to buy next.
Any ideas?

David in JAX said...

Stop crying!
There is not going to be a bubble burst,...


It's amazing how some people just can't begin to understand the concept of the business cycle. Housing goes up, housing goes down, housing goes up, housing goes down. What part of history is so dificult to understand.

And crying? A lot of us are renting and laughing. I know that I am. And when the Florida market has had a HUGE correction, I'll be ready to buy again.

Anonymous said...

See, The fed didn't raise rated and they may cut them next to help the housing out.
also gas is falling and will go lower.
There is no bubble to burst, told you guys. stop crying and buy something, realestate is the best investment and never goes down. No matter what you say, you could never buy a house for less than it was the year before! and you get the tax savings. you are all just bitter!

Anonymous said...

You guys lay it on thick. Realtors, lenders, etc are hurting these days. We are past the denial stage and into the anger stage.

Anonymous said...

Man, We are sooooo in the anger stage!!! Just read all of todays posts and comments!

Anonymous said...

30%, 50% WHAT!!! Prices in Cali are going to fall 70%! Those houses are only worth 10% of the current value. A 2/1 50 year home in our area sells for $60k. The same house in SoCal sells for $650k. Prices will drop no matter what happens!

Anonymous said...

The Fed didn’t raise rates because they have extreme fear of catastrophic home loan failures and crashing the HB more so than it already has. Near 30 Billion Dollar problems at Fannie Mae ring a bell! The Fed is hoping that all the Dumb Ass’s with Option Arm’s will refinance. Rates can’t be maintained at current levels for very long or the dollar will be toast. Rates are going to go through the roof and that’s a fact.

I highly recommend the Peter Schiff Video at this link for a dose of Reality:
http://www.europac.net/Schiff-Bloomberg-9-8-06_lg.asp

Keith, You should check out some of the stuff on this site, some great HP Material here. Peter Schiff runs a multi billion dollar corp yet admits that he is a happy renter..

Larry said...

"Anonymous said...
Larry Nusbaum has hands down the WORST site on the net"

Thank you anonymouse. You have made about 7 references to my blog and my posts. The Larry obsession lives! Please keep posting and hanging on my every word.

Larry said...

Anonymous said...
Re a little slow there Larry? Don't worry you can still work with all the guys in front of Home Depot. You speak english so you are a little qualified than them. But I would pick up the hispanics cause they would out work ur lazy realtor ass anyday of the week. So ur screwed. Take care.
========================
Larry touching a nerve. It doesn't get any better! Bubble up, dopey.

Anonymous said...

Larry-
You live in phoenix and I don't
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA AHA

Anonymous said...

Larry-
You live in phoenix and I don't
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA AHA

Anonymous said...

Larry,
My dog just took a dump. Hurry up he needs you now.

Anonymous said...

Just an analogy, folks. Since all of these people willingly agreed to take out a loan that they did not understand, for a house that they could not afford, they are really not victims and I have very little sympathy for them

Way, WAAAAAAAYYYYY to easy on these clowns. Not only did they get themselves in trouble, but they kept a lof of SANE people from buying a home when they would have during normal times. Add that to the smug attitude and how "smart" they were and I want these people starving in a gutter somewhere. PAYBACK BIOTCH

Anonymous said...

Larry you are a tool!

Anonymous said...

Larry likes Bullitt so he can't be all bad - McQueen rocks!

Anonymous said...

"The only reason that gas is temporarily lower is because of the upcoming November elections."

Come on you're pulling my leg, and here I thought it was because the summer traveling season was over.

Anonymous said...

Larry is a piece of work. He is living in a world of make believe.

Anonymous said...

No bubble to burst Eh?
Thats why we have lots of contractors in our neck of the woods that we have never heard of.They all ask the same question-Is it busy around here?The push is on to complete as many stages of existing projects in order to get paid.We all know what is happening.Houses everywhere with nobody in them,I mean many many many,and growing,for sale signs on all the un finished spec homes,finished foundations with weeds grown sky high.The glut increases.

Anonymous said...

In 12 months it will be good to buy a home from an FB

Anonymous said...

"devestment said...
.....Imagine that , a 300,000 dollar loan for only 60$ a month."

That would be just great,IF the loan never reset. Hell, I would even let them loan me $1,000,000 at $200 a month. AND I WOULD NOT CARE IF I EVER PAYED IT OFF!!!

Anonymous said...

Larry's a Tool?

Anonymous said...

as much as i loath them,
i asked three different realtors, How's it going?
All three admitted that it is slow going, and not looking too good!
One said, he had five in Escrow two months ago......nuthin now!
Their starting to sweat!

Anonymous said...

Kieth says,

Most people on this blog are intelligent. They had the foresight to see this coming. The problem with many of us including myself is we get caught up in our own intelligence. We could earn 5 to 6 times as much as we do. If we spent our time applying our knowledge, instead of wagging our tails. Let's post some articles about how to make money. Like strategies for shorting and stocks that will make money from this housing decline.

Hows that oil doing

InfidelSix said...

"gee, ya think?"

No shit sherlock and it's due to a complete failure of the regulatory system. Arsehols

InfidelSix said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
InfidelSix said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

"Congress is finally aware of the problem here, so now they are going to tighten the lending rules?"


This is dereliction of duty on part of Treasury and the Federal Reserve.

Both already have statutory power given to them by Congress to regulate banking and mortgage finance.

If they don't have power at the direct level of selling (as that's regulated by states) they certainly do have power at the level of requiring bank reserves and credit review.

They could have turned off the tap very quest


Why they didn't? Treasury has turned 100% into a propganda organ and cheerleader of Presidential political policy instead of a rational fact-based institution. (This is why the 1st T-sec eventually quit, was fired: Bush & Cheney were far more duplicitous than even Nixon, for whom he previously worked)

And the Fed? Well good ol' Senile wanted some kudos and parties from the Republican donors & Congressdroids before he retired. He wanted to go out as "The man who saved the economy from 9/11" and not "the man who shut down George Bailey's S&L."

Taking away the booze before the 2004 elections (when it could have made a difference, as 2005 was the year of total bubble-maina) wasn't going to happen.

Poor Professor Ben got shafted.
If I were him, I'd quit now saying, "I saw the numbers. We're screwed."

Hope his trust fund was long euro bonds and swissies.

Anonymous said...

I just love it when legislators come running to study the problem after the bodies have been removed.

Anonymous said...

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