August 24, 2006

Spin spin sugar: "We're not living in a bubble here"

Bubble? Meltdown? Nah! Keep buying - full steam ahead!

I love the local media and REIC reports that do mention the bubble bursting - but never in that area - it's "those other people"

No, it's not. Here's a hilarious report today from the melting-down Florida market:

Statewide existing-home median sales prices have increased nearly 100 percent over the last five years, according to the Florida Association of Realtors, rising from $127,400 in 2001 to $254,800 this year.

The Jacksonville metropolitan statistical area continues to be ranked high in housing, despite the recent “doom and gloom media reports” to the contrary, according to Mark Carlson, mortgage banker and branch manger of Wells Fargo Home Mortgage.

“We’re not seeing it,” said Carlson. “We’re not living in a bubble here.”

Northeast Florida Builders Association Executive Director Daniel Davis agrees.

“What we’re seeing in other areas in the state — where there was a large amount of condo construction and high volume of investors flooding the market and there’s a ton of inventory — is not healthy for the new construction market,” said Davis, who is also City Council vice president. “In Jacksonville our numbers are much better as far as inventory and investors that are backing out of the market. The quality of life here, the availability of housing and the jobs we are creating are bar none.

We are insulated from all the other problems that you might see across the nation and across the state where they’re relying on one industry, or they don’t have the natural resources that we have that attract homebuyers.”

36 comments:

Anonymous said...

"It would be difficult to characterize the position of home builders as other than in a hard landing," says Robert Toll, chief executive of luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc., which reported yesterday that net income fell 19% in the third quarter ended July 31. (See related article.)
In his 40 years as a home builder, Mr. Toll says, he has never seen a slump unfold like the current one. "I've never seen a downturn in housing without a downturn in employment or... some macroeconomic nasty condition that took housing down along with other elements of the economy," he says. "This time, you've got low unemployment, you've got job creation, you've got a stable stock market and relatively low interest rates."
Joan Guth is one homeowner who was taken by surprise. Last September, she put her stately five-bedroom home in Herndon, Va., on the market for about $1.1 million. She was confident she would get something near that price, and planned to use the proceeds to buy a retirement home in Florida. But her home in the Washington suburbs attracted few serious lookers, and in March, she cut her asking price to $899,900. Still there were no takers. Finally, on the advice of her broker, she called in an auction firm, beginning a process that would eventually reveal to her just how weak the Northern Virginia market had become.
…..
Looking stricken, Ms. Guth and one of her sons huddled with their broker for a few minutes. Then they told the auctioneer they wouldn't accept the bid, which fell below the stipulated minimum that hadn't been revealed to bidders. The auction was over.
Ms. Guth said she would move and leave the house empty until she could sell it at a reasonable price. Late that afternoon, Ms. Eddy raised her offer to $525,000. The Guths wavered for two days before agreeing to accept about $530,000. Ms. Eddy is getting a home with five bedrooms, four full bathrooms, a half-acre lot and a three-car garage for about what some people had been paying until recently for town houses in the area.

Ms. Guth has revised her retirement plan...

LMAO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Anonymous said...

Reality strikes for this old bag.

Anonymous said...

Are they kidding? Total meltdown here in the Tampa area. They are still building but there are no buyers. I find it hilarious. The houses are built on the smallest piece of dirt the counties will allow. Lawn mowers not needed, just get a weed eater and you are done in 10 minutes. As I sit perched on top of a hill, on 2.5 acres, I laugh at all these idiots.

The Thinker said...

Well what can we say, live and learn.

Darren said...

I live in Gainesville Fl
(University of Florida) and the
same spin here. I know for a fact that homes are not selling here and
people are not getting asking price. Two of my neibors have not sold their homes after 4 months and
2 price drops and these homes are selling for under 230,000. Normally
our homes in the subdivision located next to the three best and most popular schools sell in just weeks a year ago. In the Gainesville sun newspaper today, next to the article on the bad state of the housing market, an article on how Gainesville is having a great market. It states according to Realtors that we only had a 25% reduction in sales(thats bad in my opinion). This is not true and can be checked at the Alachua County Property Appraiser web site. In July 2005, 950 properties sold. In July 2006, 389 total properties sold. Of single family homes, 2005 saw 498 single family homes and 2006 SAW (201) single family homes. Thats 70 % drop and the math is plain to see. The Gainesville sun reports 299 single family homes sold July 2006.
The realtors count sales and not closed sales. My wife and I had been looking at properties to buy about 5 months ago before I realized that a bubble existed. When we went out 2 weeks ago, just for fun, most of the houses we looked at 5 months ago were still for sell. The new contruction spec homes are starting to gather dust and many realtors told us that we were the only people they had seen all day.

Anonymous said...

Contest: Find the most houses in a row for sale. On one street here, there are 4 in a row for sale. Can anyone top that?

BubbleShanker said...

What is going to happen when the recession starts in Q4? Pain.

Anonymous said...

The thing that pisses me off the most is that people have lost all sense of reason. A few years ago 300K would get you a decent sized single family with a garage, yard, etc. Nowadays it won't even get you some POS townhouse with a 3X6 concrete patio for your green space. And they just accept it. as fact.

Anonymous said...

Keith,

you should know:

why is there so such white trash scum and skells in Phoenix?
Is that why you left ? Is that why you can't go back "home" again?

Anonymous said...

They can SPIN all they want. The bottom line is that they're not the ones feeling the pain. The reality is when a homeowner can no longer service his/her loan, the truth will come out. Unlike politics, spinning will not work, because they (consumers) will find out first hand whether they can afford or not. In politics, it's the messenger who makes the SPIN and voters wouldn't know if he/she is telling the truth until elected.

BIG DIFFERENCE.

keith said...

I moved to phoenix in 1995. I really liked it.

I moved from phoenix in 2005. I really didn't like it.

Towns change. Phoenix was run by the REIC - including the worst mayor of alltime, Skip Rimza, who, you guessed it, was a realtor, as well as an incompetent Scottsdale mayor, Mary Manross. They had a chance to make a great city, and they blew it. The opposite of Pena in Denver.

No urban planning, built their sports stadiums 20 miles outside of the city, sprawl as far as the eye could see, illegal immigration swarming the town, strip malls, a heat island, pollution, brown cloud, more and more fake materialistic people pouring in everyday with no jobs and bad educations, and in the end, not a good place to live (anymore)

Things change, sometimes for the worse. You can put up with it or you can adjust.

Same with housing - it used to be a great investment - but not anymore. You change, based on new information.

This is why Bush is failing so miserably. He refuses to take input, or to adjust. This is why Blockbuster Video is going out of business. And this is why millions of Americans are about to lose everything.

It is what it is.

devestment said...

Get the whole article at marketwatch.com
Recession will be nasty and deep, economist says
Housing is in free fall, pulling the economy down with it, Roubini argues


WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The United States is headed for a recession that will be "much nastier, deeper and more protracted" than the 2001 recession, says Nouriel Roubini, president of Roubini Global Economics.

anonopussy said...

Is that market watch article credible? Market watch is the official paper of The Dow Jones, a special interest group on Wall Street.

Anonymous said...

We should create a list of people of the top 100 bubble cheerleaders!

Osman said...

Keith, I love how you through in W and Blockbuster at the end there. Too funny.

In any case, I agree that interviewing random real estate agents is hardly the way to find out what's happening in a local market. But that goes for "I know for sure because I know these two people who haven't sold their houses" too. Most individual realtors only know their own business levels. Most non real estate people have an even more limited scope.

Reading personal testimonials about real estate markets is much like reading individual agent accounts.

What's the opposite of priceless?

David in JAX said...

Even though Jacksonville has a record high number of unsold homes (10-1/2 month inventory) the local media is still talking about how NE Florida will see huge RE appreciation for several years to come. Condo sales are down but three high rise "luxury" condo projects are breaking ground in the next few months. The high rise condos that are completing construction aren't even sold yet. It's going to be a blood bath here when this whole thing shakes out.

Dragasoni said...

Wow, this guy is smoking something! Anyone who has been to Jacksonville knows it's dump capital of the state. Who, in their right mind, would want to live in Jacksonville??

-Dragasoni-

David in JAX said...

I live in Jacksonville and I agree with dragasoni. It's a pit compared to the rest of the state. It's an industrial center and not a tourist / retiree city. That's why it's so strange that they are throwing up so many high rise condos. It's even more strange that they are starting so many now.

Anonymous said...

It's different this time around....it's going to be far far worse

Anonymous said...

New home sale data out today - watch 'em ride this price trend down. Bruce song "I'm Goin' Down" comes to mind. Not just the assclowns with the overpriced houses that are fun to watch. Lots of incompetent mayors and aldermen are going to have their tits in a wringer for granting all those building permits. It serves those kinds of cities and towns right for running their elections like a high school popularity contest. It's been the crack cocaine for these idiots and it's going to be fun to watch the junkies go through the withdrawal. Somebody photoshop a picture of Greenspan to look like a Snoop Dog or Huggie Bear pimp for me.

Dragasoni said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Dragasoni said...

David in Jax,

I didn't measn to sound so offensive, but Jacksonville has a lot of crime, it's dirty, it just like any other big city, except without the jobs NYC and LA have.

What meant to say was why, of all places, would JAX appreciate rapidly and/or be choice among investors?

Jacksonville will POP just like the rest fo Florida, just the same! What's with the bogus spin of "there's no bubble here"??

-Dragasoni-

David in JAX said...

I didn't measn to sound so offensive, but Jacksonville has a lot of crime, it's dirty, it just like any other big city, except without the jobs NYC and LA have.

No offense taken. I agree with you completely. It's a military and industrial center instead of a tourist area. I wouldn't live here if it wasn't for my job.

Jacksonville will pop just like all of the other cities in Florida. Possibly harder than others with the recession coming. Tourism will decrease and cause job losses in many Florida cities. But, if shipping goes, Jacksonville's economy will be toast.

FrankGiovinazzi said...

Daniel Davis, head of the builders association and the city council is also the sheriff!

And when he escorts your ass to the curb he'll be saying there's plenty of opportunity for street sweepers!

Talk about a conflict of interest -- if I were a prosecutor I would head right to his shredder.

Anonymous said...

They're saying that a lot here in Portland OR. "Portland is still the most affordable city on the west coast." "Strong in-migration will keep housing prices climbing or stable." "Portland was undervalued before." "The Californians will keep coming up and buying for nutjob prices."

Meanwhile, "Price reduced" stickers are everywhere.

But that hasn't stopped the building boom. There are at least 9 cranes visible building very expensive condo towers all over the downtown with more planned to start. A 608 unit development of single family homes and low rise condos is planned for a semi-rural area near the city.

Not sure where we're headed here in Portland.

autofx in Phx said...

Anonymous said...
Contest: Find the most houses in a row for sale. On one street here, there are 4 in a row for sale. Can anyone top that?
~
Not quite, but down the street from me are three in a row with another directly across the street, with many others sprinkled liberally throughout.

My landlord doesn't want to extend my 1-yr lease because he "needs the cash" he thinks he's going to get by selling his house! He bought at the top of the bubble, tried to flip it, failed, rented it (to me), and now he thinks he's going to get what he paid or more!

Poor guy!

I'm more then happy to vacate and go bubble-sit for another owner in a similar situation, and it looks like I'm about to go do exactly that!

autofx in Phx said...

Oh yeah -- I actually want out of this lease early because I found a great house to rent for a good price, and they want to rent it NOW (an interest-only loan, also bought at the top, you know the drill).

So to motivate my current landlord to let me out of the lease early, I'm going to tell him the truth, "I am going to give you an opportunity to put your house back on the market sooner. The owners of the houses down the street have been lowering their prices and they're still not selling..."

The houses for sale down street the are the same/similar models as I'm renting. The asking prices are now $60k to $75 below what my landlord paid for his house. GOOD LUCK TO HIM. He'll need it.

Mr Haha said...

That Phunny Phlipper is Phukked.

Anonymous said...

that comment about jacksonville quality of life and jobs sounds like what they keep saying here in seattle.

Anonymous said...

My Boss just took a second on his house, and my other boss just bought a brand new Chevy silverado,and his wife got a Lexus!!!!!750 amonth for the gas eater Chevy.Yes I did encourage both of these DICKS to to do it!~~BAHABAHAHAAAAAAAAAAAAAA GUESSS WHAT? WE WORK AT A READY MIX PLANT!!!!!LMFAO-GUESS WHAT I HAVE BEEN BUYING -GOLD SILVER STOCKS

Anonymous said...

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Anonymous said...

YEH and I also will encourage more of that wreckless behavior-I also have I way better job lined up too,andmy debts are low and soon to be lower.What was a concerned warning a few years ago was met with some vile responses,I kept my mouth shut.I didn't want to Rain on any Parades.The TSUNAMI will see to it that these dorks won't have enouph for a funeral prosession,let alone a prick parade. Sincerely-THE GOD DAMNED DEVIL

Anonymous said...

Blah, blah, blah.........

a.creampuff said...

Head of my accounting department insisted DC / NOVA area "different" because of recession-proof jobs and this area needs to build more and more just to keep up with the coming demand on into the years ahead. I have my opinion, but at this point, I just keep saying "time will tell" and "no one can predict the future..." I mean, it's all over the news now! "It can't happen here" is just denial, I suppose.

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