Ya gotta wonder why houses are still going up in Phoenix all over town, with unsold inventory now at 53,000 units, up 523% over last year this time.
Yes, that's five hundred and twenty three percent. For Greg, the confused realtor at the Bloodhound group, take note - supply, demand, price.
I think inventory will stay in this range for a bit, as people pull their listings now and give up, not getting the price they "deserve", finally realizing they tried to sell too late.
But then again, you have all those flipper-owned condos coming on the market too, and I doubt many of those flippers will choose to rent 'em out and lose their shirt with the negative cash flow.
At the end of the day, Phoenix is still Housing Rout ground zero in my book (and in my heart). If you want to see a housing disaster, take a vacation this winter in Phoenix. The layoffs, the illegals, the For Sale signs, the "New Condos Available" listings, the lying realtors, the empty new neighborhoods, and the locals wondering where all the buyers went.
August 19, 2006
Phoenix dead housing inventory at 53,126 today - and growing
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19 comments:
phoenix resale market is very bad according to realtors.(i have several friends who are in the business). they say anyone who buys within the next six months is a fool. prices expected to tank 6 months from now. probably 20% in some areas. there are MANY new developments in the works and people who bought old homes to flip will be holding assets worth much less. most realtors who still want to be in business when the market does come back are starting to watch what they say so that they don't get sued or it does not come back to haunt them in the future.
man I can't wait until a year from now to see how far phoenix fell
what a disaster in the making. I wonder if there'll be riots there, like LA in the 80s?
53,000 and counting. I have family there. Last Thanksgiving We were there visiting. I told them this would happen. And, now they're screwed! Oh well!
My wfie's friends sold their house out in the far West Valley (one of the areas that will get killed the worst) for a huge profit and moved back to their smaller, much more efficient (energy-wise), landscaped Tempe house in a mature neighborhood. Now the Tempe house will lose money too, but they bought it in 2000 and it's in a much better area. Very happy for them, especially because they're horrible with money!
Oh crap. That sucks!
I moved to Phx a couple weeks ago and moved into a 320K house (according to Zillow)
Now you're saying it's going down by 20% and dropping fast in the next 6 - 12 month?!?!?
Oh, wait! I rented this for $ 1200 / month on a 6 month lease.
Whew! Maybe I won't be "priced out of the market" after all!
:-)
right on for the carnage here in phoenix. there are "luxury" condos for sale all over the downtown and midtown area. prices are still unrealistic, and there are no buyers. units at tapestry and orpheum are approaching A YEAR on the market. tapestry is only 30% complete. some infills (palm lane) have had resets on the DOM numbers. and here is the kicker...some "investor" is selling their unit at regency for 607K. bought it last year for 305K. no updates done in 10 years, oh, and they're from vegas, baby! i am still amazed that sellers are really, really really wishing it was still last year. let the 40% percent off haircuts begin.
Phoenix is a shithole and last refuge for souless wannabes who are morally and financially bankrupt.
The worst attibutes of any American metro area...truly the stereotype of ugly Americans.
Phoenix had a meteoric rise! It was mind boggling to watch! Three years ago i thought, this can't lead to anything good! Hear we are, at the very start of something rather frightning. With almost 55,000 units in inventory, and increasing weekly! Look out below! Who's gonna fill'em, and where are they comming from?
Most of my friends there still think things are fine. Most believe the prices won't rise "as fast" as last year but still think prices won't fall and that they should get the price for their house as others did last year.
One of our friends bought a rental here in Austin last November after coming out to see our home that was under construction and bought a 2500 sqft home in old Lakeway (very upscale) for $262,000 and rent it out for $2100 a month. They own a smaller rental in Phoenix they bought in 2003 for $145,000 (foreclosure) and rent it out for $1000 a month and make no money, but don't loose and come out ahead with the tax benefit. They said to me, if we had to sell one of our rentals we'd sell the Texas rental because our house here is worth more (at the time they said they could get $340,000 for a 1600 sq ft trackhome). I had told them last year to sell and dump all the cash into their Texas house and they could have paid cash and that $2100 would be positive income rather than have two rentals that produce very little income.
They still believe their Phoenix rental (and their Phoenix home) to be worth last summer's prices because their realtor told them so. The houses they bought here,on Zillow, now shows a value of $347,000, I don't know the address of their Phoenix rental so don't know the current value but I'm sure they can't sell it for $340,000. I'm also sure they could still get more than the $145,000 they paid for it in 2003, maybe even $185,000? I think a lot of folk in Phoenix are in similar positions so only those who bought last year or with exotic mortgages will really burn.
I look at home builder's websites and see they are still asking $400,000 for the exact same homes they sold new in 2002 for $195,000. I see some desperate seller'son Craigslist but even their desperate price is $100,000 too high.
Here in Austin prices stagnated for five years after their dot com meltdown. Some neighborhoods fell (cookie-cutter track, low end suburbs), some high end (too many not enough buyers because the dot com folk lost all their paper wealth) and the most desirable areas or historic stagnated or went up at a couple percent a year. There were also some good foreclosures in good areas but the banks were not as flexible as I would have thought. I spent six months looking before buying new.
One really nice foreclosure was bought post dot come as a foreclosure by a California couple. They did some major upgrades (taking out loans) and owed $380,000 in an area where the homes average $435,000. The bank wanted $285,000 (the first) for the house "as is" and it had been on the market one year, had a leaking roof ($20,000 to repair) the pool was a cesspool ($10,000 to repair) and needed mold remediation! They wouldn't budge on the price and said those issues had already been taken into account with the price. It had already been on the market 1 year, empty, decaying, taxes, costs to mothball the house etc and they wouldn't discount it any further to sell. It did sell by the way for asking price and the people took a second to fix it up.
Another house was listed for $310,000 and needed at least $75,000 to update (very nice view) and they rejected my offer of $260,000 and $280,000 last June 2005. The house is still on the market and now raised to $325,000. Of course they own it out right (they are85 and this was their vacation home by the lake) but still have at least $6-7,000 a year in maintenance costs to let it sit empty (they live in Houstin) and still won't lower the price.
People are odd and those who don't have to sell at a loss won't. They will sit on it until inflation makes them feel like they didn't loose.
Look at Miami.Inventory of almost 65k..... and rising!
I was doing some research on building permits issued on a city-by-city basis. One source puts PHX 2005 building permits issued at about 63,000. Could possibly be correct, or did a zero get added by accident?
Phoenix a shithole? You must be kidding . . . it's a great city with a great future. If you look at the history of real estate in Phoenix it IS cyclical and always recovers. Too many people in the past and the most recent past bought into the belief that they could make extraordinary profit on not so extraordinary houses and have been caught . . . the proverbial "if it looks too good" proved true once again.
For those people who have been a bit more cautious, the next few months will probably yield some good - and what they are actually worth - prices for homes.
What is different about Phoenix now than in the past is that we have a much broader economic base and are not totally developer driven.
Those who have been burned or will be burned by the down market are probably the same people who thought they could make a killing in the stock market.
Bahahahahahahahaha. What a dumb ass
Yea PHX now has an even broader housing economic base.. PHX's short term future looks pretty shaky to me buddy.
"I look at home builder's websites and see they are still asking $400,000 for the exact same homes they sold new in 2002 for $195,000."
I would not pay too much attention to prices on the builder websites. I have seen houses at high list prices on such websites, while the builders were unloading specs with many upgrades for 30 to 35% less than base price.
They are still overpriced, but less so than it might appear.
"I moved to Phx a couple weeks ago and moved into a 320K house (according to Zillow."
Don't believe everything you see on Zillow. If you compare the price trend graph for houses on the same street you'll see that it's more of a random number generator than anything else. IMO their computer model has some serious flaws. The only data on Zillow that predict prices are the actual sales numbers.
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Why would anyone want to live in that house in the pic? For that matter, why would anyone want to live in 120 degree heat?
Why would anyone want to live in that house in the pic? For that matter, why would anyone want to live in 120 degree heat?
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You got that right! What a shithole. Below expectation housing, environment, security, crime, cost of living, quality issues, water and migration (illegal). Do any of you think Phoenix is going to last and become better? Give it to Mexico!
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