skip to main |
skip to sidebar
A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
About Me
HP blogs & websites
- AmericaPANIC
- Angry Bear
- Angry Renter
- Bank Implode-O-Meter
- Big Picture
- Blown Mortgage
- boom 2 bust
- Bubble Blog News
- Bubble Markets
- Bubble Meter
- BusinessWeek Hot Property
- Calculated Risk
- Case Shiller Graphs
- Charles Smith
- CNBC Realty Check
- Contrarian Chronicles
- Countrywide Foreclosures
- Deflationland
- Denninger Market Ticker
- Dirty Scottsdale
- Dollar collapse
- Dr. Housing Bubble
- Drudge Report
- Fed Up USA Protest
- Financial Sense
- firedoglake
- Flippers in Trouble
- Foreclosure Data
- Gawker
- Gold equals money blog
- Gold Prices
- High Probability kid
- homegain blog
- Housebubble blog
- Housing Blog Recap
- Housing Bubble Bust
- housing bubble hall of shame
- Housing Doom
- Housing Fear
- Housing Tracker
- Housing Watch Price Tracker
- Housing Wire
- I Can't Sell My House
- Infectious Greed
- Inventory Overload (realtor)
- Irvine housing blog
- itulip
- J-walk blog
- Kitco
- Kunstler
- LA Times Bubble Blog
- LA Westside Bubble
- Lasner on Real Estate (OC)
- Lawrence Yun Watch
- Long Island Bubble
- Marin Bubble
- Media - BusinessWeek
- Media - Financial Times
- Media - New York Times
- Media - News Hounds
- Media - Olbermann Blog
- Media - TV Newser
- Media - Wall Street Journal
- Media Matters
- millionaire mommy
- Mish's Global Economic
- ML Implode-o-Meter
- Moneyfiles Bubble Blog
- Mortgage Fraud Blog
- Mortgage Insider
- Mortgage Ledger
- mortgagefit portal
- My Two Cents Blog
- National Mortgage News
- News: Reddit
- Northern New Jersey Bubble Blog
- NYC bubble
- Paper Economy Blog
- Paranoid Ben's boring blog
- Patrick.net
- PeakOil - Life After the oil crash
- Phoenix Flippers in Trouble
- Piggington
- PIMCO Bill Gross
- Politics - C-Span Videos
- Politics - Dick Morris
- Politics - First Read
- Politics - FreeRepublic GOP Talking Points
- Politics - Huffington
- Politics - Kos
- Politics - Malkin
- Politics - National Journal
- Politics - Politico
- Politics - PoliticsTV.com
- Politics - realclearpolitics.com
- Politics - RedState GOP Talking Points
- Politics - The Note
- Politics - TPM Cafe
- Portland Oregon Bubble
- Prudent Investor
- Ramen Recipes for Realtors
- rancid truth
- Real Clear Politics
- Real Estate & Housing Outlook
- Real Estate Bloggers
- Real Estate Decline
- Redfin.com
- Republicans Are Assholes
- Sacramento Landing
- Scottsdale Sucks
- Seattle Housing Blog
- SlackerRevolution
- SoCal Bubble
- Soot & Ashes - New from HousingPANIC
- Speculative Bubble
- Stocks - Blogging Stocks
- Stocks - Bob Brinker
- Stocks - Cramer Mad Money Videos
- Stocks - DealBreaker
- Stocks - Denninger
- Stocks - Financial Times
- Stocks - Forex expert
- Stocks - I Bank Coin
- Stocks - Market Ticker
- Stocks - Money Week
- Stocks - Motley Fool Caps
- Stocks - Option Addict
- Stocks - Options Trader
- Stocks - Portfolio.com
- Stocks - RealClearMarkets
- Stocks - Seeking Alpha
- Stocks - TheStreet.com
- Stop the Mortgage Bailout
- the greenspan mess
- The Superficial
- Trulia
- Truth about mortgage blog
- UK House Bubble
- Video - Blip Radical TV
- Video - BrassCheckTV
- Video - Countdown
- Video - Fox Business
- Video - Movietone News
- Video - NBC News
- Video: Bloomberg Live
- Video: BNN Bubble News
- Video: C-span Junkie
- Video: CNN Live
- Video: Crooks and Liars
- Video: Daily Show
- Video: Housing Crash TV
- Video: Jim Cramer
- Video: MSNBC
- Video: PBS Frontline
- Video: Peter Schiff EuroPacific
- Video: Politics Videos
- Video: Presidential Debates
- Video: TPMTV
- Vigilant Investor
- Voice of San Diego
- What Bubble?
- Wiki US Bubble
- Zillow.com
- zz HP Mandatory Terms of Use
Blog Archive
- February 2022 (1)
- August 2018 (1)
- November 2016 (1)
- June 2013 (1)
- December 2010 (1)
- November 2008 (22)
- October 2008 (155)
- September 2008 (164)
- August 2008 (141)
- July 2008 (108)
- June 2008 (129)
- May 2008 (128)
- April 2008 (161)
- March 2008 (198)
- February 2008 (168)
- January 2008 (190)
- December 2007 (151)
- November 2007 (132)
- October 2007 (146)
- September 2007 (157)
- August 2007 (143)
- July 2007 (163)
- June 2007 (147)
- May 2007 (153)
- April 2007 (135)
- March 2007 (118)
- February 2007 (147)
- January 2007 (138)
- December 2006 (157)
- November 2006 (154)
- October 2006 (193)
- September 2006 (199)
- August 2006 (182)
- July 2006 (184)
- June 2006 (140)
- May 2006 (200)
- April 2006 (166)
- March 2006 (154)
- February 2006 (105)
- January 2006 (74)
- December 2005 (119)
- November 2005 (132)
79 comments:
panic, oh, sweet panic
As of this week, we are moving out of denial into fear. The first negative YOY prices are out and the media is finally starting to pick up on the bubble.
Fear.
Fear that they will have to lower prices.
Fear that loan resets will be too expensive.
Fear that there is noone left wanting to buy.
Fear that they paid too much.
The question is at what point are the HP bubble sitters at with their portfolios.
Depends on who you're dealing with. If they are informed or a reader of HP then they might have just passed denial. Most remain uninformed so I would have to say they are probably still at the stages of excitement, thrill and optimistic. Poor SOB's
Psychology wise, we're probably squarely between denial and fear, and it's getting more and more scary.
Price wise, I'd say we're still in the anxiety phase.
Fear
http://www.moneyweb.co.za/shares/international_news/949690.htm
The backend of the link did not go through.
international_news/949690.htm
fear in general, desperation for anyone with their home currently on the market, panic for flippers with inventory, and anyone who bought a home for zero down interest only in miami, phoenix or vegas last year
Arson is born out of desperation, that comes after fear
In Maryland, people still seem to be in a stage of denial. They seem less sure of themselves when they speak, but they are getting to the next stage. I have noticed that MD took longer to peak and longer to go into decline.
The prices don't seem as high relative to incomes as elsewhere, so it could take awhile for people to come around to my point of view.
I wish people would just hurry up and capitulate so we can get done with this.
Is denial the same as confusion?
Panic - complete and utter panic - house on the market for 3 months - not one bite - wife being transferred.
Panic my friend!!
In my area, there's no position on the chart, because we are not a bubble area, as are a lot of places nationwide. However,we will all be affected by the bubble in one way or another, all in some level of negative. Lots of construction workers live in this area, who have long drives to get to work in the Balt/Wash area. Bubbles would be a lot more fun if ONLY those assholes who drove up the prices with their speculating got screwed. I feel anxiety for my country, and my countrymen. Then my feelings would go streight to fear,then depression.
denial, closing in on fear. there are still too many houses for sale in phoenix at prices that are out of line with reality. the DOM numbers continue to climb. somethings gotta give. with fear, prices will fall as people will want out before they lose even more.
I would say fear.. At parties people are starting to talk but nobody wants to go too far into it because they are all going to be negatively affected. This is a silent fear.. this is going to hurt a lot of people big time
Others may still be in denial but those are the ones that don’t read the paper, watch the news, or really care about economics and impact.
Depends upon who you are within this clusterfuck. No doubt that some are going to be squealing louder than others but as I see it, almost everyone loses. Builders will drive the prices into the ground. Lots of room to work with on pricing and won’t give a fat rat’s ass about those who recently purchased from them – bird gotta fly, fish gotta swim, joe homebuilder gotta build. Bought in 2005 or 2004? Too bad. Small potatoes builders will go under first because most might be good craftsmen but also lousy businessmen. Not much in cash reserves likely unless those kinds of guys have changed their ways in the past decade – not likely, tiger don’t change his stripes too often. No disrespect intended – some of those dudes are my friends and real salt of the earth but, bubble gave them false sense of confidence and struck out on their own when they should have remained working for someone else with a better business sense. Outlaw Josey Wales says “A man’s gotta know his limitations” (Best Western ever made IMHO). Big guys have lots of cash on hand from all the ass raping they’ve done over the past few years. Will definitely “shrink to grow” kind of like Ford Motor Co. is doing now but will still make money (just not as much) all the way down to the bottom – the guys running things at the top will just have to stay out of jail. Select real estate agents and mortgage brokers will make money too (just not as much) or builders will just sell and finance direct using some hourly employee with the skill set necessary. Won’t make $20k per month like the good old days – how’s about $13 per hour? There certainly will be lots of folks to chose from – will probably help to have a nice set of zoomers and Farrah Fawcett 70’s style hair (love that poster). People who believed their own press during this housing lovefest are the ones who are going to hurt most – mentally. Won’t adjust well to being told they really weren’t worth the $80k, $90k, $100k + they were making for a short run. A return to reality will hurt and they’ll fight it every step of the way. Coming to realize that they are not the next coming of Martha Stewart or Donald Trump is going to a hard smack in the face for some of them. The ones who are smart will say “It was a helluva ride and I had a lot of fun but it’s over now and now back to the gristmill.” Some but not all of the lenders are going to get taken to the woodshed by their shareholders, auditors, states attorney general’s offices, trial lawyers, etc. Pension fund managers who bought derivatives and other exotic “investments” that are pieces of paper “collateralized” by exotic mortgages are going to be seeking their career fortunes elsewhere – they’re all good and they all pay UNTIL THEY QUIT. Foreclosures and REO’s hurt a bank’s bottom line faster than anything. Ask any guy who makes loans for a living and collects them back with juice (interest) what he hates the most. If he doesn’t have his head up his ass he’ll tell you “Getting the goddamned collateral back instead of the fu*king money”. It sucks and he knows if he approves enough of those kind of shit loans, he too will be seeking his career fortunes elsewhere. This is all of course IMHO. Smug Bastard.
I think we're at the end stages of denial right about now - there are still cheerleaders out there. I suspect today's news (and possibly tomorrow's) combined with the end of the summer selling season will put us into fear within the next month or two.
As a perma-renter, I'm going from Hope to Optimism.
In Sacramento we are moving from Denial to Fear.
Believe it or not, we're still in the Euphoria stage. The anxiety stage is next. Long way to go from here. It won't happen overnight.
Fear most most average people as most people I know, their current lifestyle is supported in one way or another by the equity train.
Denial for people that are over leveradged to the hilt with property or the people that are in the RE industry.
AS of last week my LOON OFFICER friend was still in denial. Telling me the DOnald or Bob Kiyosaki would disagree that RE wa a bad investment. LOL!!!!!
Is there anything lower than "despondency?" That's what people who bought McMansions at the peak of the housing rout.
Anxiety IMO - the pain has not even really started yet. The panic sales are coming in the next year or even two.
Anon 8:02:05,
I love that statement;"...most are good craftsmen, but also lousy businessmen."
Denial. I've been poking sticks at people on the Portland website message boards and they are convinced that Portland will be spared any debacle in the downturn.
Portland is "special" but not that "special".
Arson isn't a good way to go these days. As a former crime lab chemist, let me tell you that the methods of detection have gotten WAY more sophisticated. I saw people get caught and suffer the double whammy of no financial gain and doing time.
Anon 8:55:23 PM
Isopropyl alcohol is the the way to go. lol
leave "Osama wuz here" messages written on pieces of paper to throw them off your trail - threat level raised to code orange
Great chart, great question.
Because the World is so layered and complex, I'll put it in a range. Denial for the NAR, SOME homebuilders, and the most phreakish of phlippers. Fear by the government, finance world, Joe Q. 'Newly Rich on Paper' Citizen.
For those who are too invested in RE, people in the industry, or those who HAVE to sell -- well, they're getting Desperate-er Every Passing Day...
There might be another chart that shows what We the Bubbly just went through:
Concern, Humiliation, Doubt, Resolve, Vindication...
...and then the Glorious Smug Satisfaction du Schadenfreude, baby.
Just a guess, but it seems we are at the threshhold of desperation, but still fearful... that is until the end of the year, then true desperate selling will begin.
today we went from denial to fear, no doubt about it
this has entered the mainstream. Housing panic is now david hasselhoff
End of denial....into fear.
Desperation hits June of 2007
-----------------------------------
THis actually isn't a bad guess. You figure we'll see a real slump in the fall, then the false hope of spring selling will never materialize and people will get pissed. Right about that time it'll be getting hot (riot weather). I'd say more like July or August. Another month or two to fester after it gets hot and still no selling, getting close to officially wind up yet another loser selling season that didn't pan out. I'd say July or August, right around a full moon you'll start to see some sort of house torching start to pick up.
Stuck in So Pa said...
No housing bubble where you are? Just wait a little while.
As far as the BUBBLE itself, it will be worse some places than others.
The DOMINO EFFECTS, however, will screw the whole economy bigtime.
Anxiety
"I've been poking sticks at people on the Portland website message boards"
Doing the same here in DC at the Post. Many still in denial and some just beginning to get mad. You always know it when you get the personal attack. More of you should go.
Thank you, Housing Panic.
(to be said outloud using your infomercial voice)
"I would say fear.. At parties people are starting to talk but nobody wants to go too far into it because they are all going to be negatively affected. This is a silent fear.. this is going to hurt a lot of people big time"
Agree 100% with what you are saying- my husband and I went to a party two weeks ago and no one even talked about equity at all.
Two years ago, at this same party,it was a totally different story- everyone at the party talked openly about how much their houses were "worth", they were astonished that we were "just renting".
Now, two years later, its very different and very strange at the same time...people at the party I went to talked about remodeling, but didnt even go near how much their house has gone up this year". I would say there was "fear" in the air, no one wants to say "boo" first for fear more equity will be lost just mentioning it.
that river in egypt
Andy said:"You figure we'll see a real slump in the fall, then the false hope of spring selling will never materialize and people will get pissed. Right about that time it'll be getting hot (riot weather). I'd say more like July or August. Another month or two to fester after it gets hot and still no selling, getting close to officially wind up yet another loser selling season that didn't pan out. I'd say July or August, right around a full moon you'll start to see some sort of house torching start to pick up".
I agree with you about a slump in the Fall, but having a "false hope of a Spring rally" do you think? Maybe more like - after this winter, last years prices will only be a distant memory...yes, agree with you about the rioting and house fires will happen - no doubt about it.
Already had a torcher here in Reno, about a month ago-the RFD said it was a suspicious fire...funny the owners where home when it started, but half the house burnt down before the FD arrived...more to come I sapose next year.
doesn't it seem like the book has already been written, we're about half way done with it, but we all know how it ends?
fear in general, desperation for some
no doubt about it fear, bigtime fear
As said above it depends on who, their intelligence, and their awareness. But the important group that determines prices is the general masses.
And the masses are between euphoria and anxiety.
A few of us can see what's happening and have anticipated it for years so we want it to hurry up, but we have to remember the masses are idiots who make decisions with their emotions. We are at the very beginning of this.
DO Y'ALL HAVE ANY IDEA WHAT A PIVOTAL DAY IT IS TODAY!!!!
THIS STORY IS THE TOP STORY ON THE DRUDGE REPORT!!!!
DRUDGE IS THE CHEAT SHEET OF EVERY RADIO TALK SHOW HOST IN THE COUNTRY! http://www.drudgereport.com/
Anxiety. I'd say Denial, but Denying a soft landing doesn't qualify.
Now when reports of a cRaSh are buzzing through the mass media and people are still holding firm on prices in the wake of overriding factual evidence, that will be Denial.
Fear/Desperation/Panic should come in quick succession as foreclosures/interest rates/etc drive prices downward pretty quickly
Poll currently on Yahoo Finance.
Q: Existing home sales fell in July to the lowest level in 2 1/2 years. What next?
A:
Housing will weaken further 75%
Housing will stabilize 22%
Housing will improve 5%
16252 Votes to date
euphoria to anxiety. the masses still don't see the crash coming. A LOT of people are still buying the load of BS that "this is a return to a normal market." I spoke to someone yesterday (I had thought to be intelligent) that is buying a fixer in La jolla this week to make big money on it. They're aware of market softness (hence their anxiety) but think LJ is immune and they'll make a killing. Sad. . .
Talked to my loon-officer friend in denial today. Asked him if he saw the recent headlines. How could he miss it he said. Then there was a silent pause. He breaks the silence with 'I am not stupid either, all my money isnt in real estate I am looking into buying gold".
Ahhh!!! Acccceeeeptannnnceee!!!!
On the backside of Denial with Fear fast approaching. I think that fear will give way to panic in a matter of months.
Lauravella 10:36:14,
It's funny, because I noticed the same thing. We recently had a family get together and my relatives, who 3 years ago, I've told them about the impending bubble but didn't listen, were no longer talking about it. When I started talking, they all sort of disperse. I didn't even got a chance to finish what I'm talking about. I felt insulted from the outside, but LOL from the inside. Funny - really funny.
Denial, just starting to give way to fear
Absolute Denial for sellers!
Fear for those who bought within the last 2 yrs.!
Thrill for me a renter with liquid funds!
Anxiety which will turn to Panic!
So many are in Anxiety/Denial now. By the time they figure out what's going on....they will have to skip a few and go directly to Panic!
Lead story on ABC also.
Presidential Candidate stuck in SE PA waiting for Poseidon Part III
I just checked the Sacramento Bee paper on-line, there is NO news about the housing bubble whatsoever.
I think their website is sponsered by the home builders - after clicking onto the houses tab, the only thing on there is an ad for KB homes with an Asian Woman smiling, stating "it's all yours" - yeah, right it's all mine...why then do I have to make out a check to the BofA every month for?
Read this TOOL's blog.
http://www.urbandigs.com/2006/08/5_reasons_why_n.html
Somewhere between denial and fear.
In LA county, houses are still selling above $500,000. In Phoenix, they are still selling above $300,000. It is still way over price.
Where is the crash everyone here is talking about? I need facts not BS!
Veritas Faust - even when your lease expires, you'll doubtless have no difficulty renegotiating your lease at the current rate (whole we move from Desperation tro panic). After all- good tenants are hard to find and it DOES matter (as long as it's not some corporate management firm). I live in New York and haven't paid an increase in two years.
For most craigslist housing supporters it is a little pass Euphoria and going into Anxiety.
For David Lereah it is a little pass Anxiety.
"I was disappointed, it was a lot lower than I anticipated," said David Lereah, NAR's chief economist. "What is clear to me is sellers are more stubborn than I expected them to be. We definitely need a correction in prices in order for buyers to come back into the market."
He said he expects home prices to come down 5% nationally, more in some markets, less in others. And a few cities in Florida and California, where home prices soared to nose-bleed heights, could have "hard landings," he said.
http://www.usatoday.com/money/economy/housing/2006-08-23-july-sales_x.htm
For Angelo R. Mozilo it is a little pass denial.
Chief executive of the nation's biggest home-mortgage lender tells investors to buckle up for a bumpy ride as the housing market slows.
"I've never seen a soft landing in 53 years," Mozilo told analysts in a conference call last month.
http://www.ocregister.com/ocregister/money/housing/article_1250927.php
Las Vegas, NV $334,900* -6100 (1.79%)
Los Angeles, CA $609,950 -15049 (2.41%)
New York, NY $650,000 -5000 (0.76%)
Phoenix, AZ $339,000* -10900 (3.12%)
Riverside, CA $475,000 -5000 (1.04%)
Sacramento, CA $379,999* -15001 (3.80%)
San Diego, CA $510,000 -10000 (1.92%)
San Francisco, CA $739,000 +112 (0.02%)
San Jose, CA $699,000 -20950 (2.91%)
Freaking Big Deal, up 200% and down 3 %. The only losers are those who bought the last six months.
Anon 4:17:08,
"Freaking Big Deal, up 200% and down 3%."
What your seeing is just the beginning of a long downturn. As the inventory increases, so as the pressure on prices.
Anon 4:05:48,
"For David Lereah it is a little pass anxiety."
No, either he will feel guilty, or he don't give a f'ck.
Anon 3:53:51,
You wonder why the prices in LA county and Phoenix seems to be holding up? It is because these sellers, possibly investors, may have bought those properties 3 years ago. Thus, they still have some flexibility or leverage. For all you know, they may have bought it for $100k less than they're currently asking.
Again, we're still at the very early stage. 10 years from now, we will still be around talking about it.
I think we just passed denial with today's weak housing data. Now we are in fear stage.
Not sure where "WE" are now but I'm going to be sleeping SOUNDLY in my little bed with money IN the bank when the snowflakes FLY. Wake me in the Spring with the last sleepy Bear if anything or anybody survives this real estate Carnage !
"man's got to know his limitations" is NOT from Outlaw Josie Wales. It's from Magnum Force. "The Good, The Bad and the Ugly" is the best western ever made. And a better quote is from The Enforcer:
Callahan: I'll handle this one.
McKay: No! We play as a team.
Callahan: The last time we did that
I got the cue stuck in my ass.
Have a nice day!
for folks expecting a 40% price cut already, that's not how this game works. This is housing, not stocks. Go read any of the classic bubble books to see how it plays out
1) sales dry up (check)
2) inventory builds (check)
3) perceptions change (check)
4) more inventory builds (check)
5) sales dry up faster (check)
6) prices drop (now starting)
Also don't forget that the numbers are bogus - "sale price" doesn't include all the incentives (pools, cars, cash back) that people are using to close sales. We may never get an accurate report of actual prices because of the way incentives are not reported
Imagine if I sold you a share of Google stock for $400, but I gave you $100 cash back afte the sale.
You got it, the real price is $300. But on the books, it'd show as $400
Welcome to reality
Yep, there is no doubt we have just moved from denial to fear. Fear is the first stage when the problem is really recognized for what it is. And the numbers this month are the very first sign that there is a problem
America's drunk on housing and the MSM is giving us a group intervention.
BB
Imagine if I sold you a share of Google stock for $400, but I gave you $100 cash back afte the sale.
You got it, the real price is $300. But on the books, it'd show as $400
great point
between anxiety and denial. I hope we stay there for about another 6 months. Then drop to fear for about another 6 months. This can't end fast, it is too much fun to watch.
My bad. Confused from so much housing news. Saw G,B & U last weekend for the 5th or 6th time - still think OJW better (IMHO) and The Wild Bunch second best Western ever made (also IMHO). Better quote - "they're going on a Missouri boat ride" for those looking to bail out of house recently bought or built. Smug Bastard.
"Small potatoes builders will go under first because most might be good craftsmen but also lousy businessmen."
Around here (Huntsville, AL) they are still busy but if/when the halt hits I will be looking for a good builder to do my small custom home on paid-for land. At a much lower price than it would be today.
I knew a guy in 1990 who was having a house built slowly. He got it framed for the contractor's cost because the contractor was trying to keep his crew together. When things get tight they worry more about survival than profits. The time to strike is then.
From a very good financial chat board (credit harleyjokim):
"The only way to really know what a real estate crash looks like is to live through one and see it first hand, feel it, taste it, and struggle through it for more than a decade to see the other side.
I did and I have.
I turned 20 in 1983 here in Houston Texas at the downside peak of the oil boom and at the dawn of one of the most horrific real estate depressions in our nations history. I have been in real estate all my life. My dad was in real estate before me. It is what I know best.
The crash destroyed everything in its path. Small businesses failed right and left. People began leaving the city to look for work. Companies were going out of business everywhere. Even the strongest banks were failing and there was ZERO credit for any endeavor. Many people lost everything and went bankrupt. I remember Phd's from the oil industry cold calling me (a kid) asking me if I would hire them to help measure houses for minimum wage. People were desparate.
At the peak of the depression here in the oil-belt, entire suburban subdivisions (I am talking about HUNDREDS of vacant homes) were boarded up and could not be sold at any price. Wave after wave of foreclosures created the next round of foreclosures. The early speculators thinking that they were getting bargin properties got caught in the later waves of foreclosures. It was just brutal. People like my old neighbor who bought her home in 1981 had to wait until 2001 (twenty years) for it to be worth what she paid for it again.
The only thing that saved Houston from becoming a dead city was its location along the coast, the petrochemical industry and net migration from abroad.
By 1989, home prices had lost nearly 50% of their value in most neighborhoods and only the best credit could get a loan because lenders had been burned so bad by the downturn that no one wanted the exposure.
We have NEVER seen a bubble like the national housing market like we have in the 2000's. I can't say for sure that it will end as badly as it did for Houston in the 1980's, but it sure doesn't look good."
Coast to Coast AM radio show black balls Housing Bubble story. Read about my experience.
As I sat in the Costco food court, sipping a coke, a visual image along with a feeling came into my mind. I saw my wife and I at some future date having a despaired discussion. A feeling of hopelessness hung like a pall over the scene. We were cleaned out and unable to make a house payment. The money we had put down was gone and we had nothing. The American dream had become a noose around our necks. I sensed that this was at least a nationwide thing and that there was pain everywhere. I sensed the tragedy of murder suicides occurring in some instances as families lost everything.
This was back in March of 2006. I had watched the housing market and was contemplating purchasing a house. Something didn’t feel right so I was trying to tune in. I have always felt that I had some level of intuition but also have had a lot of doubt about my ability to “bet the farm” on that intuition. I heard that the conscious mind is the intuition’s biggest critic, so I decided to open the door and listen, but to back that up with LOTS of research.
I discovered that astute analysts have been warning about the housing bubble for at least two years and that the warnings have gotten louder in the last several months. The mass awareness of the bubble broke wide open yesterday, August 23rd when the bubble was the lead story on ABC, CBS, NBC, and The Drudge Report. The domino effects of this process will be admitted into the mass awareness later and with great resistance.
From the moment of this intuitive impression, remote viewing, whatever you want to call it, I began doing massive research. My analysis went up-down-left-right as my mind was batted around by all the information and commentary I took in. I started sending emails to friends with links from the news and analyst’s commentaries. My sister, whose family is heavily involved in real estate, began blocking my emails.
Several weeks ago, I laid this story in the lap of George Noory of Coast to Coast AM radio fame. He could have run with the story and been out ahead of most of the media. He proceeded to blackball and ignore this subject. On August 23rd, when this story broke wide open and was the lead story everywhere, George refused to even mention the story during his review of the day’s news. Later that night when his guest brought up the subject of the bubble, George quickly changed the subject. I have no explanation for his behavior. My only motivation has been to warn my neighbor. This is a huge story and it makes no apparent sense that George would not run with a plum story.
This made me sad. I have listened for over 15 years and believed the Coast hype that we are a smart audience, calling us the Coast family. I sat in the Coast classroom for many years laughing and listening intently, telling my family that Coast time was my time and that I wanted to listen. It seems that we are being patronized and that hurts. I was right when I told my friends that a little cartoon short on the Tracey Ullman show would be big and I believe I’m right when I say that Coast is on the downslide.
I’m the canary in the coal mine. I believe that the ratings may be high, but that the quality of the show is deteriorating. The ratings will eventually catch up.
I have other useful inputs, but you know what they say about caring for your pearls.
I like roller coaster rides.
In Orange County California, I'd say we're still at DENIAL stage. Check out OC Fliptrack Blog and you'll see what I mean.
I can't wait to hear the Star-Trek-like "Red Alert" sirens going off as we approach PANIC.
South Central PA is reducing its prices like crazy - are we in the same place? You used to not see a home in Shrewsbury for less than 450, now they are under 400 - that is pretty significant. I have also seen homes I looked at two years ago already on sale. I guess that shows that the people realize they are in over their head. If you are in Dallastown / Red Lion / Shrewsbury you cannot help but notice the changes. Up north is probably different though. Let me know what you are seeing in your area, love to hear.
Anxiety - that is most definately where realestate owners are at right now. The nightmare is only just starting to begin. It's only anxiety right now. But it will get much, much worse
Post a Comment