August 10, 2006

Newsweek: Another sobering article on the human side of the housing implosion and HELOC / ARM tsunami


I read stuff like this and I'm 1) not surprised 2) upset 3) worried and 4) pissed

I keep recalling two recommendations from the brilliant scholars who helped run us into the ground - Alan Greenspan and George Bush.

First you had Greenspan recommending people get into ARMs - right before he launched the most aggressive interest rate increase cycle in decades.

Then you had the wise George Bush tell everyone about his "ownership society" dream, encouraging the last folks in the world who should've been buying homes (at the top) to buy (no matter the price) - the people with no money, no downpayment, no savings and no chance of making the ongoing (and rising) monthly payments.

Yes, people make their own decisions in life. But when rich people encourage poor people to make awful decisions, I've got a problem with that, a big one as a matter of fact.

And so you get this... people losing everything, worse off than ever, while Rich Whitey and his friends will be doin' just fine.

House Broke

Millions of Americans bought into the real estate boom with adjustable mortgages and home equity loans. Now rising interest rates are forcing them into agonizing financial choices.

Across the country, millions of homeowners are finding themselves in a similar situation. Real estate purchases that once seemed like such moneymakers have become financial burdens instead.

U.S. homeowners now owe about $9 trillion in mortgage debt. Of that, about $425 billion in adjustable-rate mortgages-initially pegged at historically low rates, but designed to shift with market trends after periods ranging from one to 10 years—will reset sometime this year, according to Freddie Mac, a government-sponsored housing financing company.

Another $600 billion in home equity lines of credit (or HELOCs) and second-lien mortgage loans, which became popular when rates were low as a means of paying off credit card debt or financing home improvements, are also being readjusted.

Those with fixed-rate mortgages payable over 15 or 30-year periods may be seeing little change, but those who banked on rates remaining near the 4.6 percent lows of 2003, are getting some unpleasant shocks when their mortgage bills arrive in the mail. As their payments rise, many are struggling to keep up. Foreclosures and delinquency rates are rising. And with the markets cooling in many regions—existing home sales across the country have slipped for three months straight and new home sales nationwide have declining as well—there are growing fears of a looming crisis.

Howard Dvorkin, president and founder of Consolidated Credit Counseling Services, a nonprofit debt management organization, says up to 10 percent of those now seeking counseling are being squeezed by adjustable-rate mortgages or home equity loans. "And this is just the tip of the iceberg."

48 comments:

Anonymous said...

history will NOT be kind

christiangustafson said...

I disagree with you about the impact of the "ownership society" theme in the Bush administration. It's nothing more than an idea and a sentiment that the emphasis should be on private ownership and initiative.

Think 401Ks instead of pensions, personal investment accounts instead of Social Security, medical savings accounts instead of socialized medicine. And yes, as a renter, I agree that home ownership is a Good Thing.

For example, they've privatized a few low-rise public housing projects in my hometown Chicago, with great success. Pride of ownership, a stake in the future, self-interest, all that.

It's just highly unfortunate that this theme coincided with the Bubble. It's hardly a cause.

Blame Bush and the 'pubbies for profligate spending, yes. But I don't think people were signing suicide loans because of this. Sorry, but politics of that sort simply do not drive Americans like that.

Look more to greed and a rotten REIC instead.

Anonymous said...

Reality bites !!!

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14251743/

House Broke
Millions of Americans bought into the real estate boom with adjustable mortgages and home equity loans. Now rising interest rates are forcing them into agonizing financial choices.

WEB EXCLUSIVE
By Jennifer Barrett
Updated: 6:35 p.m. ET Aug 8, 2006


http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/14251743/

christiangustafson said...

BTW, I don't mean to imply that the Bush admin is behind privatizing Chicago public housing, just that it's a good idea.

Alan P. said...

That picture of the family living out of their car is an all too realistic look at the America of the future. The difference being that they will be camped out somewhere in their hummer and walking to the store for milk and bread. A real hummer bummer. Unfortunately many who should suffer from this episode won't and many who shouldn't will. Life just ain't fair.

Anonymous said...

There's good and bad about the Fed lowering the interest rate (1% ?)sometime in 2001-02. Mostly bad though. For others who refinanced with a fixed rate, they are now enjoying their savings. However, for others (majority) who have ARMs and IOs, they're screwed.

none said...

You know, I've got little sympathy for people who got in over their heads on this one. These were the people swaggering around and condescendingly calling me a "bitter renter" whenever I tried to warn them. Screw them, let them burn.

keith said...

none - not all of the people getting hurt were "those people" and I agree they don't deserve our pity

The people who we should feel sorry for (and try to help) are just regular people - soldiers, teachers, cops, etc. They listened to what people were telling them (the media, the NAR, the realtor at their church, bush, greenspan, their family, etc) and they went out and "lived the american dream" and bought a house

with no money down, interest only, no savings and no way of paying for that house 2 years out

then the house fell in value (house prices never fall!) and that was enough to do the trick

now you'll see bankruptcies, divorces, suicides, kids going homeless, crime, depression and a whole host of ugly issues

that's my point.

also, read actualy ownership society policy - help with downpayments etc. great, thanks for the help with the downpayment. Now I'm stuck with this damn house!

It is not a good idea for everyone to own. You have to be responsible and secure to own. Otherwise, renting is the only way.

panicearly said...

anon, 8:23
sure the people that refied lower are saving on interest, but are now paying more in propperty taxes.
They maybe saving on interest but they are not being encouraged to save at those same low rates.
one bad event and they are broke as well.

panicearly said...

i remember reading in AZ republic about how some churchs have organized a fund to help you with your down payment. free money for downpayment.
how kind of them.
turns out that the fund was set up by
developers to move their properties on to the people.

anyone remember this from 2003?

the churchs got some donations from the developers, looked kind and sweet to the poor people, and the developers got to unload their trash .

panicearly said...

here is a related article to my last post
May 06, 2006

IRS: Charity lending is scam -- Down-payment plans called misleading
http://tinyurl.com/nfhas

imagine a house that would sell for say 80k, being marketed at 100k, with a 10K assistance towards closing. builders get paid, realtors get paid, and the charity church affiliated "assistance program" gets paid. this buyer is neg. over 15% on the day of closing.
all this with the assistance of the AZ republic and the mayors office promotion. now which side of that sewage drain do these people live in? we can ask Mr. greg swan as he swims in their filth.

panicearly said...

sorry for hogging folk, but this one got me irate. there are a lot of ways to make money but when people do it and screw the ones among us that can least afford it, it makes me ill.


"The practice began when representatives of a builder approached Don Harris, assistant pastor of Antioch Baptist Church in Sacramento, to provide seed money for down payments for prospective low-income homeowners. Harris developed the process and eventually, with the support of federal housing officials, the Bee says, built the Nehemiah Corp. The organization has provided $825 million in mortgage aid to low-income buyers since 1997"

http://tinyurl.com/qcnr5

Anonymous said...

Hey christiangustafson

401K's, personal investment accounts, medical savings accounts, all those things are where you put money into the hands of the rich SO THEY CAN MANAGE IT FOR YOU! And manage it they will, after taking their cut. After the fed (not a federal agency but controlled by the rich) makes your money less valuable through inflation. After the government (controlled by the rich) keeps putting you in a ever higher tax bracket (due to inflation). You would have to be a fool to put money into a 401 K. I stopped doing that 4 years ago. I pay the taxes on it now and invest in what I want to invest in. I pay 25% tax on it now instead of 60% later when we are all earning 400,000.00+ a year. You forget if the government is telling you these things are good, it is usually going to be good for the rich and good for the government. Not for you.

thatbigwindow said...

These were the same people who said to me "uh..you are renting????!!!" in a superior tone

heard it on the internets said...

Broke americans with no homes or job prospects make excellent soldiers.

Do the math.

The only jobs to be had will be fighting in WWIII.

geeski said...

this is a sad article, and in the coming months, this will be an all too common theme. the saddest part is that too many americans are like this. no savings, too much debt, and overextended in their housing. they were victims of the housing-financing euphoria, and now they are in trouble. it scares me to think how many people are a paycheck away from being homeless.

twib said...

Anon 12:28,

I'll take my chances with the ownership society. Take 401K vs. traditional pension plan. I have control over my 401K (by choosing from 20 or so funds). I have no control over my employers managing their pension funds.

In regards to your astute observation of tax rates. I suggest all high income folks only contribute up to the minimum in their 401K to recieve they company's matching funds. With the long term capital gains tax so low, it makes since just to invest the money yourself. The 401K will be taxed at a much higher (income) rate when you retire.

Ownership society is a good idea and something we should strive for. When you have a stake in things, you are naturally more involved. A more involved population is exactly what we need. Instead we have American Idol. Sad.

Alan P. said...

You are right anonymous 12:28:20.

Anonymous said...

Well said thatbigwindow. In fact, in the same tone of voice, my friends and relatives said; "when are you guys buying and investment property? Hurry up, you might miss the boat (i.e. low interest rate).

Fortunately, I did not and for those who took that boat ride, they're now sinking in the sea of debt.

Anonymous said...

"they were victims of the housing-financing euphoria, and now they are in trouble."

I wouldn't say it's euphoria so much it is that they believe in "society". For them, "society" has the average middle class person's interest at heart and the idea of accessibly housing via ARMs, special rent-to-own programs, etc are a part of greater society helping the average worker bee.

Well.. the truth of the matter is that "society" doesn't give a rat's ass for the average worker. Instead, it's catered for the Milton Friedmans, the banana republic free marketeer scam artists (Ludlow and friends) who make money from stock pump 'n dumps, predatory lending, yen carry trade, etc, etc.

Believe it or not, the Marshall-Eisenhower America was for the middle class. The idea of defined benefits (pensions) was not a bad thing. Why should an aerospace engineer have to be a hedge fund manager on the side, to manage his retirement, than in focusing on his job and building better rockets? Instead, it's turned into a source of pilfering via rogue executives at GM, ATT, and the rest during the past fifteen years.

Anonymous said...

You would have to be a fool to put money into a 401 K. I stopped doing that 4 years ago. I pay the taxes on it now and invest in what I want to invest in. I pay 25% tax on it now instead of 60% later when we are all earning 400,000.00+ a year.

401k's are a great idea for those who can get company matching. At a minimum, if you liquidate the money, pay the 10% penalty and pay higher taxes due to the 401k money being counted as income, you'll still come out ahead.

Anonymous said...

"the saddest part is that too many americans are like this. no savings, too much debt, and overextended in their housing. they were victims of the housing-financing euphoria, and now they are in trouble. it scares me to think how many people are a paycheck away from being homeless."

Yes, it is sad. But the solution advocated by many so called "progressives" is to use the force of government to take wealth away from other Americans and give it to the "less fortunate". How noble and egalitarian, too bad it never works as intended. Just look at what happens to the typical poor schlub lotto jackpot winner. More often than not, a year after winning they are worse off finacially than before!

Jesus counceled us to take care of the poor because they will always be with us. IMO by "poor" he meant far more than just the money in their pockets. They are poor of spirit and lack the fundamental knowledge to elevate themselves out of poverty. Unless those issues are addressed, it is utter stupidity to hand out money and favors to these people.

But here in 2006, politicians have learned that these ignorant, downtrodden folk can vote just as well as their wealthy brerthren. Now they are setting the agenda and I expect that come November the Democrat Congress will start the handouts with no strings, other rthan a vote, attached.

Anonymous said...

"401k's are a great idea for those who can get company matching."

401Ks are great if you're self-employed and are an excellent trader on the side because you can essentially multiply your short term capital gains earnings, tax deferred, till retirement. This is where it kicks butt.

As for working in a big company, they're quite mediocre despite matchings. Most corporation have a deal with a brokerage house and offer a limited number of funds, usually < 12, and supposedly, these funds are suppose to be the best places to put your eggs nest. Well, considering that a vast majority of them are the standard S&P and ancillary products, what kind of true diversification is that. Instead, if those 401K plans were for real, they should give you a full service brokerage account where you can buy anything... gold ETFs (GLD), bear market funds (BEARX), etc instead of the standard products used by fund managers to prop up the indexes.

Markus Arelius said...

I know this is cold to say, but where is the personal accountability here?

We Americans seem perfectly happy with the corrupt status quo of the Real Estate Ind. Complex. We also happy to accept what our leaders tell us as truth (Greenspan and Bush). Nobody needs in America needs to be personally accountable for their situation anymore.

Or must we automatically believe everything the government orgs and Fox News tells us.

Anonymous said...

utah, seattle, maui austin no gloom and doom. Rates are still very low even on arm's. Until rates hit 7 1/2 to 8 people can pay. Other things will go suchas vacations, clothes, etc. No real price drop as of yet. maybe phoenix but most cities are still affordable.

Repeat of the 30's? said...

"That picture of the family living out of their car is an all too realistic look at the America of the future."

I suspect that I saw two examples of this here last weekend. Both had their stuff in pickup trucks / uhaul vans. I didn't ask... They seemed like lower income types.

North Alabama.

autofx in Phx said...

Yes, people make their own decisions in life. But when rich people encourage poor people to make awful decisions, I've got a problem with that, a big one as a matter of fact.
~
This is more evidence of Keith's basically liberal, "those poor victims who suffer when they are mercilessly manipulated by the rich" mindset.

Keith, you fit right in with the Misery Merchants.

People certainly do make their own decisions. By the time one reaches adulthood, one lives or dies by the quality of one's decisions. If one chooses to not think for one's self and makes idiotic decisions, disaster results.

It's always been this way and it always will be this way.

Anonymous said...

The beaners are gonna take womens.

Anonymous said...

Stupidity is rampant is the US and only getting worse.

Anonymous said...

"When Shawn Howell saw the house in the summer of 2004, he thought he couldn’t lose. The location-close to family and in an upscale subdivision in Louisville, Ky.,—was perfect; the three-bedroom plus loft was just right. The price was a little high at $217,000—especially as Howell's wife, Niki, had just given birth to their second child. But the couple learned they could purchase it with no money down by taking out two adjustable-rate mortgages."

These people couldn't afford this house in the first place.

Anonymous said...

5.5% fixed mortgage for 30 years on $100,000. Home equity? I have over $1/4 million. How much am I using? ZERO. Top it off, the mtg can be paid off early if I want as we are not strapped for cash. But that $ is being turned into more $.

This is what a SMART person does.

Dumb people get foreclosed on.

Bake McBride said...

geeski said...
"they were victims of the housing-financing euphoria, and now they are in trouble"

We have a different definition of "victim"

foxwoodlief said...

nonymous said...
Hey christiangustafson

401K's, personal investment accounts, medical savings accounts, all those things are where you put money into the hands of the rich SO THEY CAN MANAGE IT FOR YOU! "

I totally agree. When we moved to Austin from Phoenix the end of April we both cashed out of our 401ks and paid the penalty and tax figuring we'd rather have control over the cash and where to put it and when since I expect the inflation rate to soar and the stock market to go way down. Why loose money like most of my friends in 2000 with the .com meltdown (we stayed away from those investments and only lost 4% of our funds then while our friends lost up to 60% of what they invested).

The whole system is geared so the rich can live comfortable non-productive lives sucking the wealth away one penny at a time from the working class.

I also agree with Keith that the government and Greenspan shouldn't have been encouraging interest only loans or short term ARMs. I guess a seven or ten year fixed Arm might be okay as even if rates went up over the next seven years if rates are 18% and your 5% ARM can only go up 2% for a max of 5% from the base that might be smart if inflation picks up. Still, most were suckered into one month, one year, or three year ARMs? With rates so low why? Wouldn't you want to lock in your debt at the lowest rate for the longest time and keep your cash liquid to invest in the highest return for the shortest time?

All part of the the New World Order's agenda I assume (translates into a world wide ruling elite controlling all the world's wealth).

borkafatty said...

This is more evidence of Keith's basically liberal.

And your point is what? autofx in Phx


I get a kick out of you lame asses when someone has another point of veiw on a specific topic..Out come the "RIGHTWING, "LEFTWING, "LIBERAL" "CONSERVITIVE" god forbid someone just has an OPINION!

Anonymous said...

"The whole system is geared so the rich can live comfortable non-productive lives sucking the wealth away one penny at a time from the working class."

Welcome to Wall Street....

skytrekker said...

401K plans where held by many when the market crashed in 2000- when many saw their 100K go down 70 or more percent.

The private sector is just as bad as a totally 'communist' society.

Capitalism throughout history has head svere downturns that has destroyed many peoples lives- to put all your trust in the private sector is playing with fire.

A rational and fair society has appropriate safety nest for its vulnerable members-anything less is a right wing corporate envirionment that puts faith in the vagaries of market based ups and downs.

Those lucky and smart enough to 'time' markets, invest wisely will be rewarded- those not-well good luck.

'Ownership society' sounds eerily familiar to the 'peoples car' in a European nation some 70 years ago.

Anonymous said...

I disagree with you about the impact of the "ownership society" theme in the Bush administration. It's nothing more than an idea and a sentiment that the emphasis should be on private ownership and initiative.

Think 401Ks instead of pensions, personal investment accounts instead of Social Security, medical savings accounts instead of socialized medicine.
================================

Yeah, it's turning all the risk onto YOU.

Stock market crashes because of bad macroeconomic policies? Tough noogies.

Happens 1 year before retirement date? Tough tough noogies.

Medical savings account depleted by one accident? Tough noogies.

For profit health insurance starts denying your care? Tough noogies.

What "initiative" is private ownership of that going to do?

Not much.

Overwhelmingly empirical psychological finance studies show that average people have no clue about how to invest for retirement or long run. It is better for a pension fund---who can average risk over many demographic factors and people far better---to do it.

Bush etc do not come to save Social Security---they come to bury it.
(I favor the SS administration acting like a normal large pension fund with ability to invest professionally across many asset classes, not just pseudo non-marketable treasury bonds).

The "ownership society" means this: if you own alot of money, you own the society, the government and its policies.

"Some of them call you the elite. I call you my base." --- Bush to some super rich campaign donors.

Anonymous said...

Jesus counceled us to take care of the poor because they will always be with us. IMO by "poor" he meant far more than just the money in their pockets. They are poor of spirit and lack the fundamental knowledge to elevate themselves out of poverty. Unless those issues are addressed, it is utter stupidity to hand out money and favors to these people.

Exactly! What would Supply-Side Jesus Do?

http://www.buzzflash.com/contributors/03/09/17_franken.html


Rationalization for greed: the eternal hobby of the ruling class's intellectual lap dogs.

jon street said...

where did you get the picture of that family? I must say it is the saddest thing i have seen in a while. look at the childrens faces, freakin sad shit!

Anonymous said...

"I have control over my 401K (by choosing from 20 or so funds). I have no control over my employers managing their pension funds."

401K was initially developed to serve as a SUPPLEMENT to the traditional pension plans employers used to provide, NOT a replacement.

And 20 crappy funds is not much of a choice.

cabbiesouth said...

Soylent Green cracker anyone?

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