With over 1 million realtors (yes, 1,000,000) I figure we'll see a shakeout of over 50%. If not more. So what will those 500,000 people do?
Especially fascinating to watch will be Phoenix, a fake economy based on building homes and call centers. I think we could be looking at unemployment there of 30%+ - although many of those jobs will not show up in the official number as the government doesn't count them - self employed realtors and appraisers, illegal immigrant home builders, etc.
When you have a housing ponzi scheme unwinding, combined with massive REIC job losses, you just have to wonder how low we'll go...
Housing Slump Threatens Jobs - The economy's growth has never before been so driven by real estate. Now that engine is sputtering
With home sales down by nearly a third in Florida last quarter, thousands of those who hoped to cash in on the real-estate gold rush are now facing the cold reality of working in one of the country's most cyclical businesses.
"Everyone's getting out," Massad says of colleagues who have already traded in their real-estate licenses for jobs in the jewelry trade and Internet sales.
"There's somewhat of a time lag here, but everyone's eventually going to feel it," says Jay Butler, director of the Arizona Real Estate Center near Phoenix, where housing-related commerce accounts for about a third of the local economy.
"The numbers just don't add up," says Vince Malta, CAR's president, who predicts a coming shakeout as less experienced agents find they can't earn enough to stay in the business.
That process is already underway in other housing-related jobs, such as mortgage lending, title services, and appraisals.
August 22, 2006
Like cockroaches when the light comes on: Realtors scurrying to find new employment
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1 million realtors, average say $100,000 a year income (average!) - that's 1,000,000,000,000 (1 Trillion) in annual income at risk. That's a lot of house payments, Lexus payments, trips to the mall and cosmetics bills left unpaid
Why are you blaming the Realtors? Why don't you blame your bank, lender, government, appraiser, title company, escrow company.
Its easy for you to beat down one person when there is many people involved in a real estate transaction. Your full of shit.
By the way, as a former homeowner who cashed out on cheating the system, your definately an advocate against it. Another reason your full of shit.
nobodys blaming realtors, but nobody is defending them either
the entire reic is to blame, along with the fed, human behaviour, greed, stupidity and the media
Why are you blaming the Realtors? Why don't you blame your bank, lender, government, appraiser, title company, escrow company.
If you read this blog regularly you know that banks, lenders and appraisers are blamed just as much as realtors. The government is probably blamed more.
real estate agents are worthless this is their end.
I saw an advertisement at an intersection in Phoenix yesterday taped to a pole. It said;
FORECLOSURE BROKERS NEEDED . 100K potential !! Call now !!!
WOW , those realtors will be scrambling to get those jobs !!!
It is "you're full of shit" or "you are full of shit" not "YOUR" full of shit. What are you? A former $100k plus per year Realtor? Sometimes I think we've become a nation of overpaid idiots.
Realtors make $100k??? LMAO. The average agent sells 7 houses a year! The average income is $20k, not $100k. 91% of the money is made by 10% of the agents. 50% of the top 10% will survive. The rest of the 95% will drop like rotting fruit from the tree. Most MLS lose 33% of their agents year in year out, regardless of the economy. That's why real estate agents have a bad name. Most of those 33% were losers before real estate and are still losers after 1 year of real estate.
10% of realtors making 90%+ of the money is true.
Our MLS has 2670 agents. Only 303 agents sold $2 mil worth of houses with an estimated income of $35k-$60k (depending on where they work).
The top 100 agents made over $100k. That's about 4% of the total agents.
Another interesting stat is that nearly 900 agents didn't sell a single house!!!
Our market did average about 7 houses sold per agent last year.
Very interesting.
The bimbo realtors can become sex workers...lots of similarities:low start-up, low values, deceive your customers with your product, quick exit when the transaction is done, start trolling for new business.
Yeah... realtors and whores have a lot in common.
Annon with the bimbo comment.
WTF! How many good looking agents have you seen? The average female agent is 48 years old. That's quite a few years from their prime! WTF! Most women realtors in our market are hedious. Put down the crack pipe Annon!
87% of agents drop out of real estate after 3 years any way. What's the big deal about an economic downturn?
Most agents are poor businessmen anyway. They get into real estate inaccurately thinking they'll "make it rich". Why pick on those particular idiots?
It's the Fed and their reducing the short term rate to 1% that caused the bubble. Agents had nothing to do with the bubble. Nothing!
except, No self respecting whore would become a realtor!
suggestion:
automatically delete contributions with poor spelling or syntax. That will keep this blog on track. It exlcudes the nitwits, as it should :)
autofx said:
You're letting your ignorance show, Keith. Shame on you -- you used to live here, right? There are huge companies here with high-paying engineering jobs like Honeywell and Motorola
Keith says:
Here's AZ's top employers. Fake economy, fake town, about to crash and crash hard as there are hardly any real jobs, compared to other major cities (NYC, Chicago, Boston, etc). Phoenix is a city of retail jobs, service sector (including strippers and bartenders), call centers, REIC jobs and low paying low education back-office jobs.
Name Phoenix-based forture 500 companies. Name its major headquarters. Exactly.
Major Employers-Greater Phoenix Company NameArizona EmploymentState Of Arizona 49,147Wal-Mart Stores19,510Maricopa County 15,218Banner Health 14,447City of Phoenix 13,617Honeywell International 12,000U.S. Postal Service 11,406Wells Fargo & Co. 11,000Arizona State University 10,530Bashas’ Inc. 9,646Albertsons-Osco 9,500Intel Corp. 9,500Safeway 9,500JP Morgan Chase & Co. 9,200Luke Air Force Base 9,000+Mesa Public Schools 8,684America West Holdings Corp. 8,539Fry’s Food & Drug Stores 8,233Target Corp. 7,642Bank of America7,268American Express 7,000Pinnacle West Capital Corp. 6,400Qwest Communications Inc. 6,300Apollo Group Inc. 6,295Walgreen Co. 5,479Source: The Business Journal Book of Lists 2005.
"Sometimes I think we've become a nation of overpaid idiots."
Sometimes?
"technical consulting operations and web servers, plenty of jobs for doctors, nurses, lawyers, financial professionals, college-level educators."
What do any single one of them make?
America no longer makes anything. What was the last American made product that anyone bought at a store?
I bought a set of Oneida flatware about 4 years ago that cost me $40.00 more than the Chinese stuff.
""Everyone's getting out," Massad says of colleagues who have already traded in their real-estate licenses for jobs in the jewelry trade and Internet sales."
Internet sales? They're all becoming spammers??? Sheesh.
I support you, Keith.
1. Intel is firing people – this year 2000 layoffs approximately. Slowdown in semiconductor industry is a solid fact.
2. Wells-Fargo is in deep shit (40% of its business is RE-related, mortgages, HELLOCs....).
3. Morgan-Chase, Bank of America - same thing.
3. Wal-Mart and all that crap is dependent on purchasing ability of the people, which are squeezed.
4. 40% of jobs in Phoenix is related to housing industry. I personally know more than dozen self-employed ones related to RE. They're in deep shit too.
5. Some jobs in Honeywell, Boeing just related to the military complex. They're not going to last long. Phony "War on terror" is wasting of precious resources, leading this country into bankruptcy (remember Vietnam War and stagflation?)
6. Arizona State is a bankrupt too (used to work there). They took hundreds of millions in loans to build "most advance life-science facilities in the world: genomics, proteonics and all that crap". They built some buildings and run out of money, since the cost of construction went high and cost of modern equipment is astronomical now (need more clever expensive people, too).
I left Phoenix 8 months ago since I felt disaster is coming. I had good research position and well-paid job. I rented 2 bedroom apartments in Tempe downtown, just 7 minutes walk from ASU campus. Oh, man – it was cheap 650 per month! But, I left that hot and dirty place and I’m gonna tell you why.
An air around the Phoenix area is worst in USA. Do you know that CO2 level in Phoenix is twice more that planet's level? Do you know that 30% of children in Phoenix area have respiratory problems (like asthma and other breathing problems? Phoenix is used to be a good destination point for retired people – not anymore! High housing prices, rising crime, terrible transportation and super hot summer are killing people.
Imagine one thing. Accident on local nuclear station (Palo Verde) in summer time. No power for a whole day (outside is 115F). Only 3 highways go into the city with population of 3.5 million. Traffic jams, no escape – you’re in desert. How many dead people will you see next morning? Thousands !!! Mark my words, Phoenix is a time-bomb. Everything is dependent on electric power. Cut the power in summer time – don’t need a dirty bomb!!! Well, add a water-rationing probably coming next year too.
I've never been to Phoenix but that list of employers was sad.
Nice to know I can get a $8 an hour grocery job if I need one though
"Nice to know I can get a $8 an hour grocery job"
I would just hope they paid that much!
"Name Phoenix-based forture 500 companies. Name its major headquarters. Exactly."
Swift has a lot of truck drivers ;)
Full Time Employees: 21,900
Since America gave up manufacturing years ago, what else is there for Americans to do? Doesn't matter, financial, medical, law, teaching, these are all service jobs and if rich could export them they would as long as they got richer. So much for a rising tide lifts all boats.
And Europe? They are more protectionist and unionist than us but even they recognize they can't compete with China. Italy has too many small family businesses in manufacturing shoes, gloves, purses, etc that can't compete with china. And who put us there? The Democrats and Republicans.
They serve only their masters, International Globalists, and we, the taxpayer has subsidized this transfer of wealth and techonology as well.
Who are the real Cockroaches? Not the average realtor or American just trying to earn a living wage. Try looking at politicians and CEOs of those Fortune FIve Hundred's and others who are literally "traitors" to the American people. They line their pockets with gold and have no concious as long as they get theirs, damn to hell be the rest of Americans.
They can always work as agents. They'll just have to switch from real estate agent to debt collection agent. There will be plenty of openings.
"suggestion:
automatically delete contributions with poor spelling or syntax. That will keep this blog on track. It exlcudes the nitwits, as it should :)
By Anonymous, at Tuesday, August 22, 2006 4:45:37 PM"
Anon 4:45 - if this feature was indeed implemented, your own post would not make it!
Syntax error anon demanding perfection when posting:
You are a F-ing moron! LMFAO!!!
AUTFX:
I worked for MOTO in PHX as an engineer for 10 friggen years. I was getting paid CA salary and living large in AZ. BUT even the $$ couldnt hold me from busting out of that shithole. THat city sucked major ass. Fake people, no culture, overpriced crap boxes, crime, drugs, heat, illegals, etc... I secured a job at Qualcomm in SD and never looked back. After arriving in SD I had to ask myself WTF was I doing living in PHX for ten long miserable years!! FFFFFFFUKFFFFFEENIX!!!
Keith is correct in his assesment of the metro Phx job market..I've lived and worked here for over 11 yrs..good paying jobs here are few..most decent ones are transfers from out of state and usually short-term...I've met hundeds of people commercially and socially spanning all socio-economic levels in my working and private life...income insecurity is rampant here and the commomn wisdom is that a 50k a year job is a God-send.
Even doctors and dentists are struggling by placing ads and coupons off in flyers usually devoted to roofers, garage floor finishers and air duct cleaners.
Most peopel here are strung out in debt and living paycheck to paycheck with poor prospects for the future..
Anybody younger than 45 or so, is beeter off in a other parts of the country if income is what they're seeking.
There's also a lot of white trash scum here living on the edge..why does this country still have such trash in the 21st century?..who are these people?..Mexican illegals here eventually attain a better lifestyle than this white trash scum...and the hoot is that most of the white trash are Republicans !
Phoenix is a city that really never should have been. No ocean. No forests. No scenery. No fall color. No water. No jobs. No culture. No history. Hot as hell, maybe hotter. How this place ever became the spot for a real estate bubble is beyond me. I can understand bubbles forming in California, Seattle, Boston, DC, NYC, and even (it's a stretch!) Florida. But Phoenix and Las Vegas? Gimme a break! What's the attraction? That's like bubbles forming in El Paso or Amarillo.
WTF! How many good looking agents have you seen? The average female agent is 48 years old. That's quite a few years from their prime! WTF! Most women realtors in our market are hedious. Put down the crack pipe Annon!
Some pretty hot eye candy in the Scottsdale realtor ranks...prime meat...you wouldn't mind bending over some of the 40 somethings either if you saw them..crack or no crack.
Phoenix is a repository for dead-enders, third-stringers and serial losers who can't make it anywhere else.
A cesspool of mediocrity and the lowest common denominators.
Where does all this scum come from?
The horror !...the horror!!
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