August 31, 2006

HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day

Things appear to have really sped up in the bubblesphere with the imploding housing market, combined with a world spinning out of control with Iran/Iraq/North Korea etc, all kinds of stories from Wall Street, and the continuing political drama.

So, HP'ers, what'd I miss? In trying to connect the dots, what dot did we miss? What connection didn't we make?


Anonymous said...

Love your pics!

Any knidergardener could figure this out!

1 to 2
2 to 3
3 to 4
4 to 5
6 to 7
8 to 9

Anonymous said...

Savings Rate

Because the increase in spending was larger than the gain in incomes, the savings rate fell to minus 0.9 percent, from minus 0.7 percent in June. The rate has been negative for 16 straight months, indicating consumers are dipping into savings to maintain spending.

Anonymous said...

combined with a world spinning out of control

Eh?? Still one revolution per day. Historically things are pretty good. Stop watching the news and you'll feel much better.

Watch how the attitude of the media changes when/if a Democrat wins the presidency in 2008. Everything will be wonderful again like when Clinton won. All the problems in the media magically disappear when Democrats are in the White House.

Anonymous said...

Bush adopted two of my three platform planks in his interview with Brian Williams:

1) Energy , referring to his "addiction" comment in the SOTU
2) Unfunded liabilities of the U.S. gov't. (hard to believe but true - he actually did enunciate the words clearly)

Stuck in S.E. PA

Roccman said...

Avian Flu - C. difficile

World Population out of Control

Peak Oil - coming to a nearby theater this December

Immigration Laws

Why were buildings in 9-11 demoed?


Mexican Presidential Elections

Chavez/Morales/Castro connection

Chaves backing Syria

Afganistan and Heroin trade

Russia and NG to the Baltic States

Gold market munipulated

Dollar at 84 and dropping

The carry trade

World food reserves at 57 days

Depleted soils

Not to mention Global Warming

Global Dimming (look it up - way worse than its twin)

Oh Yeah - the Police State - coming to you by early October 2006.

My dots don't look like a Duck - they look more like a bomb going off.


Anonymous said...

don't forget about the fact that our manufacturing sector is done, kaput, over. doesn't bode well for the country if the dollar drops and exports become more expensive. manufacturing is not something that can be reinvigorated in a short timeframe.

Metroplexual said...

Richard said...

"Russia and NG to the Baltic States"

What does the NG mean?

Anonymous said...

oh yeah, and potable water shortages should be fun to deal with when they start cropping up

Anonymous said...

richard, all of those problems you mentioned are very serious. And let me be the first to say that if Hillary Clinton is elected president she will fix all of those problems. Hillary 2008.

When you threw the 9/11 demoed conspiracy in there it shows that you're above average retard (oh my goodness if I tell people I believe in a 9/11 conspiracy, people will see me as against the grain and kewl)

Anonymous said...

Irrational Exuberance
Record Debt levels throughout the nation

and now one more nail in the coffin - Fraud
From Florida's Herald Tribune

The rapid pace of the real estate market during the past few years has provided a perfect smoke screen for unscrupulous individuals bent on scamming the system, says real estate analyst Jack McCabe.

But as the market slows and the smoke clears, fraudulent deal makers will find it increasingly difficult to mask their activities, McCabe said.

"When there's a flurry of activity, everyone in regulatory agencies is overwhelmed by the amount of transactions and paperwork that they have to process," said McCabe, a widely quoted analyst who works out Deerfield Beach. "But when activity slows, regulators get a chance to give transactions greater scrutiny and they will begin to see a paper trail of fraud."

McCabe says evidence of fraud is beginning to bubble up all over Florida.

"This is just the tip of the iceberg," McCabe said. "I believe fraud has run rampant and that the number of fraudulent deals will be measured -- not in millions of dollars -- but in hundreds of millions of dollars."

As evidence of the kind of deals coming to the surface, McCabe pointed to reports in, a Web site dedicated to reporting on the real estate industry.

On March 27, a Cincinnati mortgage broker pleaded guilty to bank fraud connected with more than $50 million in purchases and sales of low-priced housing.

On March 20, two people pleaded guilty to mortgage fraud in the Hattiesburg and Laurel areas of Mississippi. They admitted to preparing fake financial statements and to preparing false and inflated property appraisals.

On March 7, two Californians were charged with recording false documents, forgery, grand theft and conspiracy in connection with obtaining bank loans.

"We're seeing more every day," McCabe said.

What most of these deals have in common is an effort on the part of borrowers to jack up sales prices, often by submitting forged documents, so they can convince banks to loan them more money than underlying properties are worth, he said.

Such fraud can do incalculable damage to the real estate market and the banking system, McCabe said.

"A tremendous amount of people can get hurt," he said. "Lenders making loans on overvalued appraisals and forged paperwork may have to take properties back and sell them at lower prices. And any time lenders get hurt, expenses are passed on to their customers."

Legitimate developers and builders also get hurt because regulators start scrutinizing loans more intensely, McCabe said.

"Credit tightens and projects that would have gone forward before get shelved."

Commercial brokers push for better MLS system

Concerned that the Multiple Listing Service used in Sarasota County is better suited to residential than commercial agents, a group of commercial brokers is pushing for a new system.

"There hasn't been a lot of attention paid to the commercial side of the equation," said Carl Wise, the owner of Sarasota-based Preferred Commercial. "The system we have is oriented toward selling houses rather than industrial properties."

Wise estimated that about 200 members of the Sarasota Association of Realtors are commercial brokers and some have access to proprietary systems for tracking sales listings. But most would benefit from a countywide tracking system, he said.

"It's also in the best interest of sellers to have access to the widest system available."

Given that rationale, a group of 10 commercial brokers, led by Diane Lawson, is proposing that the Sarasota Association of Realtors buy a commercial MLS system called Catalyst.

"We're currently in negotiations for a contract with Catalyst, and it looks like we'll get the system," said Lawson, a broker with Sarasota Commercial Management. "It will be a great tool to offer our members."

Coldwell agents play part in Gold Bank building sale

The 11-story Gold Bank building in downtown Sarasota recently sold for $35 million, the highest price paid for commercial space so far this year.

Jag Grewal and Michele Fuller of Coldwell Banker Commercial represented the seller -- New York-based Pineapple Bank Partners, while Coldwell residential agent Kate Tyler introduced the buyer -- Michigan-based Triton Companies.

"We had been working with the sellers for about a year and with the buyers for the past four months," Grewal said.

Anonymous said...

I blame the whole thing on metrosexuals. Once men started shopping at MAC cosmetics I knew the whole house of cards was coming down.

Seriously though,

Global Dimming?

Jesus.. this blog is chock full of new and unhappy thoughts to dwell on!

Roccman said...

Yeah Keith - pleas etell us everything gonna be ok...please.

I want to live a happy ...happy life.

Please don't tell me about bad things!!

Please Please

Anonymous said...


Anonymous said...

katie couric will be telling us all happynews soon and we can forget all about big bad keith.

brokersleaveyoubroke said...

Seriously though,

Global Dimming?

Yes, Nova did a show on it a while back. Air pollution is causing less sunlight to reach the earth. Nobody knows what the long term effects will be so nobody is worried.......yet.

Anonymous said...

The Iran/Iraq/NK stuff shouldn't have too much impact. When has ever not been strife and war in world history? I think when you focus on these kinds of things, or "fiat currency" crises that never happen, you distract from the one and only major issue in the housing market: There is an incredible quantity of houses for sale, and no one's buying.

Oldboy, I don't remember the media being happy-joy-joy during the Clinton era. I remember bloody genocidal wars in Bosnia and Kosovo, which we got into with no shortage of controversy. I remember a certain sex/perjury scandal that seemed to dominate the media for about two years. I also remember something about gays in the military, something called "Travelgate," something about a haircut on a runway. I remember hearing about crime a lot. I remember terrorist attacks in New York and OKC.

Maybe I just have a selective memory.

Roccman said...

Yeppers - Global Dimming

In essence - make the air cleaner and more solar heat hits the planet - accelerating global warming - so dirty polluted air actually is protecting us.

Now I know keith says he likes to connect the dots, but here's one that connects global dimming with 9-11.

Ok ANONs start pounding out a response before I finish.

For three days 9.11/12/13 NO Air Traffic.

Those pesky global dimming scientist measured the solar radiation hitting the US those days...

Dont's hit send YET ANONS...

and these scientist found that because of lack of exhaust of airplanes shielding the earth - the solar radiation increased by 4-6 degrees (f)...oh but they were oh so clear and happy daze - remember??

Ok ANONs fire that 9-11 conspiracy message

Anonymous said...

You missed the biggest dot of all: reality is never all good or all bad. The term "Ponzi Scheme" is still around because people learned from that episode, and we still use it to this day. People will learn from their mistakes.

There are very promising developments in R&D. In energy research alone: the Z Machine, combining nanotechnology and photovoltaic solar cells, new types of batteries (polymers), mimicing photosynthesis for breaking the water molecule efficiently...there could be a breakthrough at any time. from some direction no one expects.

We are on the verge of cracking long-standing puzzles in Physics and Biology/Medicine. While many bad trends accelerate, many good trends are going hyperbolic during our lifetimes. What's sad is the mammoth diversion of resources and bad policies that have stymied all of the above. So weird that we are poised to go through horrible economic times at this juncture of history, but if we can just hang on, there is hope for a better, sustainable world to come.

Anonymous said...

When in the history of the world has there not been conflict, wars, diseases, poverty? The internet has made it easier to read about the above. They were talking abou tpeak oil in the 1930's along with the Japanses marching into China and Germans marching into Czechs and Poland. The US was in a Great Depression and Mexico was in a chaos.

Anonymous said...

Seamus... you forgot Vince Foster!

Americans ALWAYS have selective memory!

It's one of the foundational pillars of marketing un-needed junk in our country!

Ask most RE investors or homeowners about the Tax Reform Act of 1986 and watch the deer in the headlights shine!

Or the S&L fiasco... or the RTC... or just about anything other than 20% appreciations!

Roccman said...

"When in the history of the world has there not been conflict, wars, diseases, poverty?"

Riddle me this batman...

When in the history of the world have 7 BILLION people occupied it and EXPONENTIALLY growing.

Answer batman...NEVER

Oh, but it will be different "this" time...

Anonymous said...

Drought will be the big news over the next couple years, particularly in the Plains states.

Think 'Dust Bowl' and you'll get the picture.

Anonymous said...

When had 1 billion people occupied the earth before it first hit that number? How about 2 billion? People could be saying the same thing back then as you are saying now. Thirty years from now they will be saying when have 10 billion people ever occupied the earth?

People made it through the plagues which wiped out half of Europe, the Great Depression, huge wars and famine.

You guys should read up on history.

Anonymous said...

Anon 12:40:19,

I know that, and it's the nature of a human being to survive. The subject of this debate is who were the ones who are suceptible will will take a hard hit and who are the ones who can weather it through, when the so-called financial storm arrives.

Anonymous said...

Simple Keith - global inflation caused by the Fed increases the value of extractive assets, which are the only assets despots and tyrants have. (Cambodia built up a surplus of human skulls at one point, but found them to be a non-tradable good).

So we can blame Greenspan for the recent strength of jerkoff dictators like Putin, Chavez, and Ahk-many-jihad.

Deflation plays to our strengths, when intellectual assets are suddenly the safe haven as people dump real assets.

Anonymous said...

China holds trillions of USD and MUST spend it, hence interest rates are going down again perhaps all the way to 0% this time.

This bubble is just a baby bubble of the real bubble to come. House prices are going up again this year perhaps even double.

Holding cash is the dumbest thing, the housing speculators are going to get rich, rich, rich, rich, ..

Roccman said...

Here's a bit of history for you to chew on ANON:

"Britain and France had their plan for taking back the Suez Canal after it was nationalized by President Nasser of Egypt on July 26, 1956. "France secretly enlisted the help of Israel," writes James Bamford in Body of Secrets: Anatomy of the Ultra-Secret National Security Agency from the Cold War Through the Dawn of a New Century. Mr.Bamford was Washington Investigative Producer for ABC's World News Tonight with Peter Jennings, and has written investigative cover stories for the New York Times Magazine, the Washington Post Magazine, and the Los Angeles Times Magazine.

"The intrigue involved Israel launching a war against Egypt," writes Mr. Bamford. Then, once Egypt began defending itself, England and France would go in as 'peacekeepers. ' As part of the 'peace,' the canal would be taken from Egypt and kept by Britain and France. Israel would capture the Sinai from Egypt." The plan was agreed to by Israeli prime minister David Ben-Gurion, defense minister Shimon Peres, and armed forces chief Moshe Dayan, and Britain's prime minister, Anthony Eden."

Roccman said...

Remind you of the recent invasion of Lebanon and the "peacekeepers" moving in?

Anonymous said...

Richard, the canal was returned to Egypt the following month. Why don't you actually read the history of the subjects you cut and paste from and you will find it easier to actually make some kind of point.

Anonymous said...

Once again Richard Head chimes in with his lack of wisdom.

1. The Suez Canal is vital for world commerce. Why the hell would the West want Southern Lebanon full of crazed Shiites?

2. Most of the UN goons will be from Muslim countries like Pakistan and Turkey.

Roccman said...

By Sambit Mohanty
August 30, 2006

In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - From Australia to Argentina, erratic weather is slashing wheat crops of the major producers, which is threatening to push up prices to multi-year highs and making it difficult for countries to replenish stocks.

While the world's carryover stocks could cushion the blow, the crop woes coincide with rising demand from Europe and India, which is grappling a with a huge shortfall.

Appetite for feed wheat for livestock is also likely to grow as mills cut the usage of corn because its price has soared on strong demand from ethanol makers.

"It is going to be a year of tight supplies," said Mark Samson, vice president for South Asia of the U.S Wheat Associates. "And with expectations of high world prices, more hedge funds are increasingly paying attention to this market." The interest of investment funds in grains is growing and helping to push up prices. The Deutsche Bank Fund now allocates 22.5 percent of its investment funds to wheat and corn trading.

"Wheat prices are firm now and could still go higher," said Antonio Moraza, president of Pilmico Foods Corporation, a Philippines-based flour milling firm.

U.S. spring wheat has risen more than 15 percent to above $200 a tonne from last year on concerns about supply.

The United States had one of the hottest summers since the Dust Bowl years of the 1930s. The U.S. Agriculture Department has forecast output will fall 14 percent to 1.80 billion bushels, the smallest crop in four years.

The USDA expects the drought to push U.S. prices to its highest levels in 10 years

Anonymous said...

Hitler: "the jews are the cause of all our troubles"

gee, remind you of the stoopid things richard and company keep cutting and pasting from their 9/11 conspiracy sites?
And don't retort with your Pat Buchanan comeback "why is it everytime we critisize Israel were labelled as anti-semite"

Anonymous said...

By the way, your buddy Pat is on Coast to Coast am with George Noory tonight!

Roccman said...

dot to dot to dot - that simple ANON - now pay attention!!

The War on Lebanon and the Battle for Oil

by Michel Chossudovsky

July 26, 2006

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Is there a relationship between the bombing of Lebanon and the inauguration of the World's largest strategic pipeline, which will channel more than a million barrels of oil a day to Western markets?

Virtually unnoticed, the inauguration of the Ceyhan-Tblisi-Baku (BTC) oil pipeline, which links the Caspian sea to the Eastern Mediterranean, took place on the 13th of July, at the very outset of the Israeli sponsored bombings of Lebanon.

One day before the Israeli air strikes, the main partners and shareholders of the BTC pipeline project, including several heads of State and oil company executives were in attendance at the port of Ceyhan. They were then rushed off for an inauguration reception in Istanbul, hosted by Turkey's President Ahmet Necdet Sezer in the plush surroundings of the Çýraðan Palace.

Also in attendance was British Petroleum's (BP) CEO, Lord Browne together with senior government officials from Britain, the US and Israel. BP leads the BTC pipeline consortium. Other major Western shareholders include Chevron, Conoco-Phillips, France's Total and Italy's ENI. (see Annex)

Roccman said...

One more dot for the dolts

Wednesday August 30, 2006
Deutsche Presse Agentur (DPA)

In accordance with Title 17 U.S.C. Section 107, this material is distributed without profit to those who have expressed a prior interest in receiving the included information for research and educational purposes.

Damascus- Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Syrian President Bashar Assad in talks in Damascus Wednesday solidified their stances in the face of US pressure, with Chavez lashing out at the US and Israel as the "roots" of the problems in the Middle East and the world. At a joint press conference, Assad called Chavez's visit "historic" and added that the two had "successful, intensive and very important discussions" in talks focused on "bilateral relations".

The two leaders signed 13 agreements, protocols and other documents in various fields including energy, transport, trade, and agriculture, and also agreed to allow Venezuelans and Syrians to enter each others' countries without visas.

Chavez was awarded an honorary doctorate in the international relations from Damascus University.

Anonymous said...

Once again, all one needs to do apparently to find a smoking gun is to put a question mark after an unsupported accusation. The pipeline was done and pumping in May and is nowhere near Lebanon and has nothing to do with it. Head, ass, it's time to part company, you've been spending to much time together.

Anonymous said...

Wait a minute, you mean to tell me theres OIL in the ME and western companies are involved in it's extraction and distribution? This is an outrage, wake up America! Why can't we let those peace lovin arabs extract and distribute their own oil? Oh, because they have no skills? they have to import all their work force because they have no idea how to run an economy? They only teach the quran in school? Oh, I see. nevermind.

Roccman said...

mi - thank you for defining yourself as a racist for me... always nice to who i am dealing with.

Roccman said...

Last dot of the evening...

Peak Oil Forecasters Win Converts on Wall Street to $200 Crude

By Deepak Gopinath

Aug. 31 (Bloomberg) -- On a sweltering Tuesday in mid-July, in the fields outside Pisa, Italy, Willem Kadijk scribbles notes as a ragtag troupe of doomsayers predict the end of the Oil Age.

With his shaved head, jeans and sandals, Kadijk, 48, blends into a crowd gathered under a white tent to hear of the coming calamity. The death of cheap, abundant crude, the forecasters warn, might unleash war and plunge the world into a second Great Depression.

That's not the prophecy of some apocalyptic cult. Kadijk, a hedge fund adviser, had flown from Amsterdam to attend a conference on a geologic theory known as peak oil.

Proponents of this controversial idea say global oil production is now at or near its zenith. Once the flow crests and starts to decline -- and some geologists say it already has -- oil will no longer be able to slake the world's growing thirst for energy. The result will be the oil shock to end all oil shocks. The price of a barrel of crude will spiral to $200 -- and keep rising. To the peaksters, today's energy crunch is nothing next to the pain that will follow.

``Peak oil is a reality,'' says Kadijk, a senior equity salesman at Kepler Equities, an Amsterdam-based brokerage. He plans to start a fund to capitalize on what he sees as a looming crisis for the world's fossil fuel-based economy and the ultimate bull market in oil.

As energy prices soar and violence convulses the Middle East, the peak-oil movement -- an unlikely alliance of geologists, physicists, oil industry consultants and environmental activists -- is winning converts. Peak-oil ideas are bubbling up from scientific journals and offbeat Web sites, much the way warnings of global warming did a decade ago. For the first time, the peaksters have begun to grab the attention of Washington and Wall Street.

Roccman said...

Ok - one more - couldn't help the lastest on how WTC 7 fell...seems like us "conspiracy theorist" may be not so dumb after all ...huh? huh? whadda ya say Keith...right here my friend it and weep.

The National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) is set to conclude its investigation of the World Trade Center complex by analyzing if bombs brought down WTC 7, the 47 story skyscraper that was not hit by a plane yet collapsed in a controlled demolition style in under seven seconds.

NIST today released a page on its website that is intended to answer skeptic's questions about why the towers and WTC 7 were the first and only three buildings to collapse from fire damage alone.

Though the vast majority of the NIST rebuttal seeks to reinforce the notion that the twin towers were brought down from nothing other than jetliner impacts and heavy fires, NIST makes the admission that investigation into WTC 7 has been insufficient and that they are now, "considering whether hypothetical blast events could have played a role in initiating the collapse."

panicearly said...

keith, one thing you left out.
complete complacency and dropping out.
i know middle income people like this
with hefty children and hefty mortgages.they have just enough education to think they are educated. once realty hits them their response is unpredictable.

cognitive dissonance ahead.

panicearly said...

hey richard,
Silverstien is changing his tune from his PBS interview.
NOw he is sayying that "pull it"
means to pull fire fighters out, not the building. lol

Roccman said...

yeah panic - how can it be both ways...the can of whoop ass has just been opened!!

panicearly said...

can of whoop

Anonymous said...

Poor Richard Head was never able to reach Peak Braincells. In fact, he could never even utilize a single braincell in his retarded thoughts

Anonymous said...

Richard Head spends his days surfing the loony leftist and Muslims conspiracy websites. It's enough to drive Richie crazy.

Anonymous said...

Intel is set to lay off up to 20% of its workforce. That should do wonders for property values in California.

Anonymous said...

I can't quite make it out, but isn't that duck lame?

Roccman said...

Speaking of POLICE STATE...

All 50 governors earlier this month signed a formal letter opposing a
House provision in the National Defense Authorization Act that would
let Bush federalize the Guard without governors' consent in the event
of a "serious natural or manmade disaster, accident or catastrophe. "

http://www.washingt wp-dyn/content/ article/2006/ 08/31/AR20060831 01554_pf. html

Anonymous said...

I don't want to give it away but, if you finish's a duck!

Anonymous said...


"yet collapsed in a controlled demolition style in under seven seconds."

All buildings collapse in about the same amount of time, whether from controlled or uncontrolled demolitions. They are heavy and controlled by gravity, which points straight down. There is nothing else giving it angular momentum, so it goes down.

Controlled demolition is designed to cause structural failure. Uncontrolled demolition or damage causes structural failure.

Both result in the same picture, so an amateur looking at the tape will see almost the same thing.

This is the laws of physics, as opposed to movie "physics".

Anonymous said...

So, what are we missing?

This is the CivilizationPanic Stupid Question of the Century:

Peak Oil

WhiteTower said...

Anyone making the case that the WTC collapsed by "controlled demolitions," and not by the impact of two aircraft hijacked by Muslim fanatics, shouldn't be taken seriously about anything else they say.

They simply aren't operating in reality, as anyone who knows them can probably attest to.