Mish posted this the other day, from a realtor on Fool. I'll put just the most recent letter, but it was fascinating to read the progression - how the realtor got to this point, from uber-cheerleader and braggart just a few months ago. Go to the link to read his postings from 2004 onward.
You know there's a million realtors out there all dealing with the same issue - the bubble has burst, sales have dried up, they're now seen as liars, they've been disintermediated, and the money just ain't coming in anymore.
Many probably can't even make their own house payments anymore. That's not gleeful - it's just the way it is.
2006-07-20
Most of the regulars here know that my wife and I are a REALTOR team associated with one of the major national firms here on Atlanta's north side, out in Roswell and Alpharetta. It's been a character-building year, as another agent in our office put it the other day. What makes it more stunning, at least to me, is that it started out so well. We ended the first quarter with nine deals pending or closed, which is a very solid start. Then we hit a brick wall with only three deals in the second quarter and that would make it our worst second quarter ever in our 12 years.
"Then it got worse. Normally, over the years, about 1 in 15 deals falls out -- that is, they fail to close. Usually, it's over the inspection contingency amendment, but not always. At any rate, two of our three second-quarter contracts failed to close. Unbelievably, we booked and closed only one contract in the second quarter. So here we are, July 20, with only 10 deals for the year.
What a mess.
"So here we are with 10 deals and needing a total of about 20 to meet our cash flow needs: personal and business, plus taxes.
August 20, 2006
An honest view from a realtor in Atlanta (why can't more just tell it like it is?)
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10 comments:
There are over 1 million realtors, most of whom are now struggling. since they are self-employed, will their lack of work be reflected in the employment or layoff data? And do they qualify for unemployment insurance? I don't think so
That's also 1 million people not buying new houses, not leasing new lexuses and not shopping at tiffany anymore
realtors are going to get even more pissed and violent in their reaction to the bubble blogs. watch out.
here they come back to the restaurants looking for jobs.it is just amazing most of these people have never read a business pub in their lives and all of a sudden they think they are experts in the world of finance.. to them look out below.. the market is about to crush you.
HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA HA!!!!
There is no housing bubble in Atlanta. Houses have not appreciated at the rate of cities ie San Diego, Phoenix.
Just closed on my house in atlanta. I have been bubble sitting for 1 year now and just wanted to settle down. I have heard from my brother who rehabs a bunch of houses all over atlanta that the stuff over $400,000 is sitting. Under 300,000 like I just bought (single family home in a safe neighborhood with good schools) are still moving.
His partners have dropped one of their higher end homes from $599,00 to $539,000. I would stay away from the over $500,000 home. Everyone thinks they wont go down, but they are smoking something, they already are. As long as your expectations are reasonable, you should be ok buying. You'll get some tax benefits and renting a home here costs the same as a morgage. Propery taxes are also pretty reasonable here. I wouldnt be suprised to see my house drop 10% or 15% which of course would not make me happy but alsowould not materially effect my financial situation. My advice would be just don't stretch yourself thin and lock in for 30 years.
To the person who asked about Atlanta market:
There is nothing called "Atlanta market". Atlanta is so huge (sprawl). So there are many places with stagnant house prices (high crime, high poverty) and few desirable places (low crime by atlanta standards, affulent) with 10-15% appreciation per year. (For those from Atlanta, I am talking about buckhead, midtown, alpharetta, dunwoody, roswell).
When you read housing reports, you will see that the home appreciation in "Atlanta market" in only 5% per year. But dont believe that. Desirable areas - the ones I mentioned below - have raisen in value so much in the last 6 years. There is bubble in Atlanta, but its well hidden.
There is no bubble in Atlanta.
As always, you have compiled a very interesting blog here. I think you would enjoy my property listings real estate buy home blog. You should check it out if you are interested in all things related to property listings real estate buy home
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