August 24, 2006

Gee, that's a shocker: Rampant overbuilding means condo boom may go bust

Again, everyone else is stupid, or HP'ers are just psychic.

Why is the meltdown underway such a shocker for most people and the MSM? Isn't this, all of this, just so obvious and predictable? Didn't anyone ever take an Econ 101 class?

During the past six years, South Florida's landscape shifted from low-slung homes to condominiums hundreds of feet high. As the buildings reached skyward, so did prices, topping seven figures for the more luxurious digs.

Today, though, the meteoric rise of condo development is on the verge of crashing down to earth.

The seemingly unstoppable juggernaut has come face-to-face with economic realities making even the most maverick developers gun-shy.

As supply outpaces demand, prices already are leveling off and values of newer condos could tumble by 30 percent or more by the time the market hits bottom, experts say.

"The condo market isn't just breaking lightly," Miami real estate consultant Lewis Goodkin said. "It's screeching to a halt."


Anonymous said...

Has anyone here tried to visit 'the housing bubble blg' lately (within last hour)? I could get on earlier today..but not now

I just hope another bubble blog wasn't hacked! That would suck.

Anonymous said...

Sorry for the panic... it's back up..

Now back to our scheduled housing panic.

Anonymous said...

Keith, you're overreacting.

Helicopter Ben will lower the rate soon. They were tightening it for a couple years, so FED lose it again.

Welcome to stagflation world!!!

Welcoming housing collapse is not wise action. Everybody will suffer. You may lose your job too, don't you think?

Even though I don't like this bubble, I'm afraid of losing my job. I don't care about flippers, they'll get what they deserved.

David said...

"Helicopter Ben will lower the rate soon. They were tightening it for a couple years, so FED lose it again."

Dollar plunge!

Anonymous said...

Prices up and prices down,
drive them condos into the ground

You say buy and she say sell
welcome all to real estate hell

a condo condo condo condo

Everybody Samba!

Anonymous said...

f*cking great picture LMAO

Anonymous said...

Ah, yes but what if "Helicopter Ben" and the rest of the merry Fed band feel restrained to keep interest rates high to tamp down inflation and keep the Dollar from dropping like a rock in the currency markets (by definition an inflationary event)? Remember, there are a fair number of inflation hawks on the Fed Board these days.

In doing so Ben would take a page out of former Fed Chairman Volker's book (that nasty task master we had before "don't worry, be happy" Greenspan) and force us to take our medicine for our own long term good.

Either way, Ben and the Fed at some point in time is going to have to choose between ice (hiking rates to contract the economy stave off inflation and a dollar crash) and fire (lowering rates to stimulate and court a dollar crash and raging inflation)

Anonymous said...

condos shot up faster than houses and will now crash faster than houses. you could nearly daytrade a condo and many did - a lot different than a home that you live in

I bet some areas will see 50% price declines in condos if not more. $1 Million for an apartment is about $900,000 overpriced.

Anonymous said...

The word isnt May Go Bust Its happening right now..30 percent off seems to be just the start ..Im sure will see 50 percent off in the next 2 years in South FL..When they do drop 30 percent people will buy thinking its bottom..That is just the dead cat bounce.Its going to be an ugly 20 year cycle. Just live and enjoy life in Sofl. My only question is are these idiot taxing authorities going to lower the taxes? ...when prices plunge. Taxes are up 300 percent in 5 years on non homesteaded property.Landlords, snowbirds and flippers have been screwed.

Anonymous said...

YES, they are stupid.

YES, we are psychic

Anonymous said...


Corvinus said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Corvinus said...

"As much as 30%" decline in condos, my ass.

Try 70%