Gotta love a realtor who blames the media and the "negative information" for bursting the bubble.
Try reality, hon. Try economics 101. Try being honest with your clients. And try to get a grasp of the fact that the Phoenix market is in full melt-down mode, and the "negative information" is just the light of truth finding its way to your clients (oops, I mean suckers).
Folks, I'd have a lot more respect for realtors if once, just once, I'd hear one say "yup, housing became wildly overvalued and now prices are going to come back down to their historic averages". Give me one honest realtor, just one. Is that too much to ask?
Here's (yet another) realtor-quote-infested article from the lazy reporters in Arizona.
Home buyers have the upper hand in the Valley’s real estate market for the first time since the record run-up in prices began two years ago, but industry-watchers say most are reluctant to jump in and instead are waiting to see when values will bottom out.
Put simply, buyers are scared, said Jan Montgomery, a realtor who owns Canyon Shadows Realty in Mesa. “There’s a lot of negative information coming at them about the bubble bursting and the market falling,” she said. “Everything is all negative and they’re taking that on themselves, thinking ‘Maybe I shouldn’t do anything. I should just wait until it settles.’
Some sellers are finally starting to realize their asking prices are too high and are cutting them. Listings are up considerably and prices have reached a tipping point in sensitive areas, mostly on the outskirts.
“There’s a lot of buyers that are still on (the) sideline,” said Neil Brooks, who sells homes mainly in Scottsdale for Century 21 Arizona Foothills. “There’s a lot of sellers that are still in denial.
August 20, 2006
Fundamentals? Negative cash flow? Historical deviation from the mean? Nope, it's the "negative information" causing the housing meltdown
Posted by blogger at 8/20/2006
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19 comments:
The person who runs Housing Panic is obvsiously a person who doesn't own a home and never will.
the person who runs HP has owned three homes, sold the last one at the peak and now happily rents
why would it be obvious the person does not own a home... what a stupid conclusion.
the smartest people in the room sold their homes and are renting
the smartest people in the room sold their homes and are renting
I agree with this statement. But, there is a lot of anger towards people who sold at the top and are now renting. I think a lot of it is fear from sellers or anger from people who are getting burned.
I'm happy to have sold two homes and be renting for now. I was a real estate agent in San Diego in 2000-2001 and the guy who trained me told me a lot of stories about the housing crash of the early 90s. People owed more on their houses than the houses were worth and it was sad to deal with the people who had to sell at a loss. When all those people bought their homes they thought they were making a great investment and that prices would never go down because they aren't making any more real estate, and after all this is California where everyone wants to live. Oops.
Even in the face of a dozen indicators that prices are dropping and will probably continue to do so... I love this quote from the article:
"Those who desire a home and don’t buy now may miss out, said Montgomery, former president of the Southeast Valley Regional Association of Realtors."
Where did these people work BEFORE they became Realtors?!?!?!?
Reminds me of the guy from old SNL cast... "Buy a house now... yeah, THAT'S the ticket! Yeah"
Or perhaps Joe Isuzu?
The SNL guy is doing the "SUBWAY, Eat Frrreeesssshhhh" commercials now.
"David in JAX said...
the smartest people in the room sold their homes and are renting
I agree with this statement. But, there is a lot of anger towards people who sold at the top and are now renting. I think a lot of it is fear from sellers or anger from people who are getting burned."
But what do you do with that anger. Nothing constructive of course, that’s the nature of anger.
It's not like all the renters/former owners who sold at the top all live in the same section of town, or in a giant apartment all by itself so the mob can all march over and torch it. Homeowners are everywhere, renters are everywhere!
I wonder how the FB's will vent their rage and it what direction, and how. I have seen and read the news reports about the angry face-to-face confrontations between neighbors when that one guy in the hood, in desperation, finally decides to lower his price more that the rest.
What's the next step up from there? Riots! Against who?
Legislation? For who? By Who?
Against who?
The aggravation of watching this housing bubble slowly consume itself, as all bubbles must, has been replaced with the aggravation
of wondering what's next. Geez, I wish I were 5 again. I knew my place in the sandbox.
California State Motto: BOOM OR BUST. . .
Do any of you (here in CALIF) remember that Pacific Bell (now ATT) used to run that add on the radio back in the ealry 1990's. . .remember all the jokes about "last one out turn off the lights?" Well, here we go again. . .SD Union has an article today about job losses, and mentions layoffs, etc. It is just beginning.
Anger at sellers: My neighbors in Walnut Creek Ca were pissed off at me because I lowered my price in May from $505K to 490K and then sold at 490K. . .now there are 3 units on the market this weekend listed at 439K, 445K and 449K. . .They all tell me "you were smart to sell in May." The owner of the $439K is desperate (bought years ago at 250K) and needs to sell.
bought years ago at 250K) and needs to sell.
Can you say HELOC
Selling isn't always smarter than renting. My parent's house in Silicon valley is paid for and with prop 13 they pay around $800 a year in taxes on a million dollar house (not worth $450,000 in my opinion but I've never thought CA houses have been worth what they've asked the past 30 years). If they rented they'd be paying at least $2800 a month.
My best friend still owns (and rents out) his first house he bought in Phoenix in 1982 for $72,000 and will be paid off in 3 years. His original payment PITI? $535 a month. He rents it out for $1000 (below market but good tenants,lived in it for six years renting). Rent never goes up? The market rent on this house has almost tripled since 1982.
Delinquent HOA Dues. . .
Last night was my monthly restaurant group - about 15 people try new places. . .the major topic last night was DELINQUENT Homeowners Dues. . .one person is on the board of his association, and they have a number of people who are not paying because of "financial hardship." I know another huge project here in SD - The Famous Grande, that has about 20K in back dues. . .lots of these are from spec units. . .people may pay the mortgage and the property taxes, but they first stop paying dues. . .then the condo association doesn't have enough to run the place, and has to do a special assessment or raise the dues, which makes sales even harder. I suspect in the next month or so, the MSM is going to pick up on this when some WSJ reporter gets hit with a $3000 special assessment. . .
These arguments over what reality is and how the MSM is mis-representing them are very counter-productive. The bottom line is that something is happening, it is just the WHAT that is open to interpretation and on that point I think everyone is entitled to their own opinion; they can all choose their own anchor in this rough water which may either hold them steady or drag them down depending on how it breaks.
I will point out two things though. One, blaming the MSM for mis-representation, justified or not, smacks of denial; you don't rebut a point in a debate by denying it's right to exist and be said, you point out why it is wrong. The more denial I see in any debate about what is reality, the more likely I am to believe the opposite side may have a point. Two, reality or not, in markets (real estate or equity) perception has a way of blurring into reality as faith in the conditions that have supported the current market are eroded and confidence is replaced by fear and doubt. As wisely pointed out by Ben Graham and Warren Buffet, Mr. Market is a manic-depressive, and he's getting nervous.
--Andrew
"My best friend still owns (and rents out) his first house he bought in Phoenix in 1982 for $72,000 and will be paid off in 3 years."
Part of the reason why so many people are into housing today is because they expect a continuation of the overall bullish market in RE during the past quarter century sans Houston's oil crash, and the early 90s recession.
Phoenix
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A realter who is improving some land near me for a house / barn told me that he just sold a house sight unseen to an investor from Colorado. Was you Osman?
This area is still cooking. I hope it crashes before the developers get too close to me and I have a bunch of FBs for neighbors. I would hate to have to worry all day about the stuff they are stealing (or poaching or rustling).
HOAs can and sometimes do foreclose. I have read that FL is particularly bad.
I will never live anywhere where there is a private tax on my property (HOA).
People who think Prop 13 is a good thing are flippin assholes. Great, your parents are sitting on a million dollar house and not contributing to the education of children and the running of the state because they screamed poverty.
Why should they be allowed to stop supporting the society they live in because they are old? They should pay their share and take out a reverse mortgage to pay the taxes instead of preserving YOUR inheritance. If they can't afford the taxes they should sell and rent.
No one else gets away with being a deadbeat except the old people of California sitting a gazillions in equity.
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