This should adequately freak out any sellers or buyers... as well as the entire REIC. Get ready for our Time Magazine cover story!
The slowdown in the once-sizzling housing market is spreading, with 28 states and the District of Columbia reporting spring sales declines, led by big drops in former boom areas of Arizona, Florida and California.
Nationally, sales were down 7 percent in the April-June quarter this year compared with the same period in 2005, the National Association of Realtors said Tuesday in its latest state-by-state look at housing conditions around the country.
The Realtors survey showed that the biggest declines occurred in states that had been enjoying red-hot sales during the five-year housing boom.
The five biggest declines this spring compared to the April-June period of 2005 were Arizona, down 26.9 percent; Florida, down 26.7 percent; California, down 25.3 percent; Virginia, down 23.9 percent, and Nevada, down 23.5 percent.
August 15, 2006
Another way of spinning it: Home Sales Decline in 28 States
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For more on the NAR numbers go to
http://tinyurl.com/zmr2u
David
Bubble Meter Blog
Love the picture of that bear!
It is frozen in my area which is apparently immune cause it's different. Guess I'll have to move to Boulder - wherever the fuck that is, somewhere in OZ? man!
check out what they used the proceed for:
RIVERSIDE, California (AP) -- Two men were arrested on suspicion of running a massive prostitution ring that employed more than 240 women across several Western states and generated millions of dollars, authorities said.
Boaz Benmoshe, 44, and Ofer Moses Lupovitz, 43, were among seven people arrested last week and charged for investigation of pimping, pandering, perjury, loan fraud, money laundering, falsifying income tax returns and grand theft, Riverside County Sheriff Bob Doyle said Monday.
The suspects operated Elite Entertainment, a Palm Springs business that posed as an escort service in online and newspaper advertisements, according to an affidavit filed by prosecutors.
For at least three years, the business managed more than 80 phone lines, where clients across California, Nevada, Oregon and Arizona would call an 800 number and request a girl.
The suspects would dispatch the prostitutes, who charged between $200 to $2,000 for sexual services, Doyle said. They used the money to secure loans fraudulently for million-dollar homes, authorities alleged.
During a 2-1/2-year probe, undercover detectives ordered escorts who worked for Elite Entertainment to hotel rooms in several locations and arrested them after money was exchanged for the promise of sex.
Authorities also seized about 15 computers and $5 million in unspecified assets. Officials said the investigation was continuing and that more arrests were likely.
The suspects include Benmoshe's wife, Melanie Ann Smith, 24, and Russian nationals Moti M. Vintrov, 33, and Eliran Vintrov, 28, plus their spouses.
Bail amounts were set from $25,000 to $1.5 million, according to court records.
"During a 2-1/2-year probe, undercover detectives ordered escorts who worked for Elite Entertainment to hotel rooms in several locations and arrested them after money was exchanged for the promise of sex."
In another time and in another place........
"During a 2-1/2-year probe, undercover detectives ordered Real Estate Agents who worked for Elite Real Estate to vacant homes in several locations and arrested them after money was exchanged for the promise of selling their homes."
Farm Girl
I'm surprised that the remaining 22 states saw a steady (or increasing) home sales! This bubble bust is not as widespread as I thought.
Christopher Thornberg was one of the first to say that the housing market was peaking last year.
Other market observers now agree that the market is cooling but are uncertain about whether it will result in a "soft landing" that won't disrupt the economy. Thornberg said his expectations are growing more gloomy.
"My guess is we're going to have a hard landing," he said. "It's ugly out there."
In a soft landing, prices would level out and economic growth would be flat or slow while adjusting to the loss of jobs and spending in the construction, real estate and mortgage industries.
A hard landing could come if housing prices begin to fall, Thornberg said, in large part because that would scare consumers accustomed to watching their net worth rise on paper. Their spending pullback and a corresponding drop in construction could push the economy into recession.
http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-thornberg15aug15,1,4462297.story
that bear looks like my uncle. i'm going to check to see if keith has copyright permission to post his photo.
those people arrested for the prostitution ring are Russian Jews, most likely linked to the Russian-Jewish and Israeli mafia, including many of the so-called Russian-Jewish oligarchs who have raped and plundered Russia for more than a decade. they are amoral, sadistic, ruthless, heartless scum of the earth. they are involved in murder for hire, drug and arms trafficking, white slavery/prostituion, child porn, kidnapping, extortion, penny stock manipulation, and god knows what else. if americans only knew what these monsters are involved in, they would deport every last one and preferably much worse.
"The suspects include Benmoshe's wife, Melanie Ann Smith, 24, and Russian nationals Moti M. Vintrov, 33, and Eliran Vintrov, 28, plus their spouses."
"if americans only knew what these monsters are involved in, they would deport every last one and preferably much worse."
I had something a little more permanent in mind. Think the media has covered over this housing scam during the last five years? Look at the foreign criminals in our country during the last 35. That's OK, the best PR in the world won't make us forget our dead family members so if and when the opportunity arises( think Germany circa 1932 ) we'll reopen those shut down pet food and fertilizer factories so that the foreign criminals and the american traitors can contribute to society. Curious how many of us there are out here? count the illegal aliens in U.S. prisons and you'll get an idea. It will only take 3% of the population with good leadership...
Yuan Gains Most Since Peg Ends
Bloomberg reports:
China permitted the biggest gain in the yuan since ending a peg to the dollar in July last year, a day after allowing the largest decline, suggesting the central bank is easing controls over the exchange rate.
The yuan rose as much as 0.24 percent against the dollar today, as 13 of 15 leading Asian currencies climbed...
Increased flexibility this month suggests the People's Bank of China is now encouraging greater appreciation and may be preparing to widen the trading band.
And BB is going to hold rates? sure he is.
Yes sir...
Virginia down 23.9% and still, every day in the paper, I read about some land owner complaining that they want the right to develope their land. Those local 'Citizens for Property Rights' have built themselves right into a housing glut!
Tooooo Baddddd!
Farm Girl
I fear that we may be wrong concerning the bubble bursting. IMO the Fed will start lowering rates even if it means out of control inflation. People generally don't blame politicians or the government for inflation. They blame the corporations. People will be blaming the government if the price of their house collapses or they lose their job as a realtor, mortgage broker, banker builder etc. They will be blaming the government if interest rates rise and they end up getting foreclosed on. I predict housing prices will only drop slightly as inflation will keep prices of commodities and other good propped up
Last anon. You dont get it. Even if the Fed drops rate do you really think that people will start buying in again? The prices have gone so nuts like here in Socal and hardly anyone i buying. Its not because of the rates. Its the price. Most people are not stupid enough to sign their life away on a 600k POS they wont live to see paid off.
Prices take awhile to drop. I figure maybe 5-7 years of "real" price declines.
Notice that the market now appears to have 'normalized'. Sales, starts ete ete are now within seasonal historical means. Now we see if that normalization continues or if as we all suspect, they fall BELOW the historical mean indicating recession.
The problem is, the builders for example are working on a business model that is at 2005 levels. Simply put, as the Tolls said, is losing money fast. Labor cuts are coming. I will try and ask Toll how much they are going to have to cut off(a nice chunk illegals by the way). That will trickle down to carpenters, Home Improvement retail ete ete.
Bernanke's own report showed a "soft" landing raising unemployment up to 5.5-6.0% without improvement in other areas of the economy. A hard landing 8.0-8.5%.
Look at the foreign criminals in our country during the last 35.
I was more worried about the Bush crime family.
Mr. Smith,
RIGHT ON!
People don't have to start buying to prop housing prices. Inflation will do it. BB will keep printing more money and that in itself will keep the price of housing up. Does anyone doubt there is already excess liquidity in the markets?
Yes, I think many on this site are discounting the inflation issue. Let's see, most debt is in US dollars. Trillions of US treasury notes are owned by foreign governments and individuals. The Euro is up 50% against the dollar, the Canadian dollar up 30% so that means that paper is worth 30&50% less in their currency. $600,000 house now worth 50% less in Euros.
We almost bought a cottage in France when the Euro was worth only $0.82 because is seemed so cheap. You could pay cash for a nice cottage for $60,000, now tha place costs more than $120,000 with the depreciation plus their appreciation and easily costs $150,000.
Inflation and devaluation, not deflation is going to be the norm. Just as it was said in the Penniless Billionare about the Weimar Republic and the creation of their Hyperinflation (the government with the consent of the USA believes inflation is better than massive unemployment and a possible communist revolution) so it will be here, with the consent of all those governments who hold our fiat dollars and treasury notes.
Do you really think a dollar is worth a dollar? You can easily lop off a zero to compare prices with what people paid in the late 60s or early 70s. Back when a basic car (not all the bells and whistles) cost $2,000, not $24,000 and a house was $50,000, now $500,000 for a POS. What has changed?
When my wife and I were in the AF and 21 years old we thought we'd never be able to buy a 3,000 sq ft house (1976/77) that sold for a whopping $45,000. At $450,000 you can still buy a pretty nice house in most parts of the country. That is that $45,000 house our parent's bought.
Let's see, a fixed mortgage at anywhere between 5.5%-6.5% (which was available for most people during the past three years), inflation at a low 4%, your real interest rate only 1.5-2%? And if inflation ramps up to 6%? What will you want to hold then? Money in savings loosing value like in Germany in 1922?
And what about oil? At $70 a barrel it is only 53Euros today, a a few years ago a $40 barrel of oil when the Euro was worth less would have cost them 76Euros, so for a lot of Europeans oil isn't as costly as it is to Americans today.
And Britain with its over-valued currency? They can devalue their Pound, thus all their debt by 50% and the pound would still be worth more than one dollar.
Most of the people on this site that are under the age of 36 are too young to even have a faint memory of what it was like in the 70s with inflation, and that wasn't hyperinflation. Today looks like the mid-70s and we won't see any real corrections until maybe 2009/10 (1979/80) and even after the dust settles the prices of things will still be a lot higher than 2006 (1976). History always repeats itself but people never say, the prices went up permanently.
Why? Every cycle didn't return the price of a house to the price of the 50s, 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, or even 2000 because the value of the dollar hasn't returned to those levels due to the excess creation of fiat money.
Foxwoodlief:
..."Every cycle didn't return the price of a house to the price of the 50s,60s,70s,80s,90s or even 2000...."
You're right, but at least it can return to a level RELATIVE to income for that year.
Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Keith - Is NJ on the list? Thanks.
On the subject of NEW JERSEY real estate pricing.
I currently live in a 3bdrm 2.5bath townhouse in Monmouth Couny which is considered a pretty rich area. I bought the townhouse in 1998 for $159,000. I was considering selling the townhouse a year ago to downgrade but decided against it because of family issues..
1 year ago a professional real-estate agent valued my townhouse at 400,000 for a "one week sale" and 420,000 for "a few months on the market" and showed me proof that townhouses in my development that sold for that price range.
Also one year ago there was exactly zero townhouses in my development for sale.
Fast forward one year and there are currently 5 townhouses for sale and I recently saw on listing on the local mls service for a townhouse in my development that the owner reduced from 415,000 down to 375,000.
Please note that I do now live in newark or camden nj..this development is located in Manalapan, NJ.."average household income $100,000" according to county statistics.
So is New Jersey real estate in trouble? Judge for yourself.
Thanks for the info. I keep hearing "this place is different..." Maybe the NJ realtors are just more stupid!
Good Grief, it's Hillary!
I know that it is wierd, but I can hardly wait till this time next year. What will the future bring? Perhaps forclosures for smart investors to buy?
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