July 29, 2006

Realtor attacks HousingPanic ("cult-like fever to inflict suffering") and its readers ("brown shirts" and "flying monkeys")

This "attack the messenger" stuff will just get worse and worse I'm afraid. Where the bubble bloggers may even take some blame for the economic meltdown and people's misfortunes.

I think HP does good - at least for anyone who listened starting a year ago, and for first time home buyers a few years from now who'll be able to afford a home. I blog to warn others, and to expose the corrupt and powerful REIC, pure and simple.

Here's the attack by "bloodhound realty" (nice name). Feel free to respond on their site, make the author look like the ignorant fool he is, but play nice!

HousingPanic, a particularly vitriolic BubbleBlog — which is saying something — asks:
Realistically, how overvalued are Phoenix home prices?

Obviously, I consider this a profoundly silly question, but to lurk among the BubbleBloggers and their seething commentariat is to acquire an education in a slice of America invisible from this side of the sewer gratings.

Notwithstanding the idiotic economic analysis, which is really no worse than the static-market fallacies paraded as profundities in the pages of the Arizona Republic, these sites — and not just HousingPanic — are infested with a cult-like fever to inflict suffering — at second hand, to be sure — on people who are in fact guilty of nothing except failing to have drunk the BubbleBlogger KoolAde.

That’s all one. I don’t care. The whole of the last century was dominated by the bad behavior of viciously angry wretches, but look where it got them. The BubbleBloggers will someday bawl balefully in private, but they will never, ever admit that they have been very publicly very foolish.

You will know and I will know and in the secret chambers of their hearts they will know they were wrong all along. But as long as you don’t hold your breath waiting for that contrite admission of error, you should be fine.

Here’s where I do start to care. Whenever the subject of Phoenix comes up in a BubbleBlog, the assembled Brown Shirts pile on, for whatever reason. This is their perfect right — even though I think they’re wrong.

85 comments:

Anonymous said...

Oh yeah, we are causing the prices to go down, just like its the neighbors fault for lowering theirs...

Boy, its great that we are so popular that a large majority of potential property purchases read this blog first and decide not to buy and single handily tanking the market...

I will admit both sides can swing to extremes. Both this side, and the RE industrial complex side. What do you expect someone whose whole livelihood is causing RE transactions to say?

For those who feel everyone here is a dis-gruntled renter who "missed the boat", I am very much a property owner and bubble believer. Luckily I bought 8 years ago and can ride it out.

tomcarbon said...

perhaps a vested interest there?

john_law_the_II said...

good luck with those 50,000+ homes.

skyrocketing inventory anyone?

David in JAX said...

This attack doesn't surprise me at all. It sounds like desperation from someone who is in fear of losing their livelyhood.

Anonymous said...

If RE were going so swimmingly, he'd just smirk and continue to take his 6% commissions to the bank. Probably he just missed a (lease) payment on that new S-Class though.

I (almost) feel his pain.

An aside: whenever someone in a luxury car drives real slow through your neighborhood and waves to you - it's a realtor trying to impress their mark with how friendly the neighborhood is. Just stop and glare at them.

panicearly said...

frustration, its the stage between denial and anger.

congrats to keith.

Anonymous said...

Phoenix Real Estate Bubble...
Phoenix Real Estate Bubble...

oh, what the hell, let's type one more time:

Phoenix Real Estate Bubble...

:-)

Anonymous said...

When will the losers admit the truth, a bunch of so-called 'trash talkers' can't take down a true, robust RE economy.

If they can't do the above then they're bonafide liars at heart.

Anonymous said...

was it gandhi that said "first they ignore you, then they laugh at you, then they fight you- then you win"?

devestment said...

If housing panic was not a threat, realtors would not give us the time of day. It is not in the realtor’s interest for prospective clients to be well informed.

The realtor’s actually stand to loose more than their clients because of smaller paychecks, deflating prices, and lost liquidity in their own investment properties. Combine all this with higher operating expense and we have a formula for recession. Hey, but don’t rely on my nimble argument, instead consult UCLA Anderson, Yale’s Schiller, or the many other economic think tanks that are not biased by conflict of interest.

Anonymous said...

Poor Greg Swann. Apparently, he has been drinking from the phoenix water supply for too long. Now he has a case of unrealty. He believes that Phoenix-

1. Will grow forever
2. Has no water problems
3. Has no immigrant problems
4. Will have no energy problems

Maybe he does need some KoolAde from the Panic Master. It would be better than that KookAde he's been drinking.

SidneyPrice said...

If there were a persuasive counter-analysis to the HP assessment of the bubble, this blog would be swarming with pontificating trolls.

Anonymous said...

DC Metro going bust too:

http://www.wusa9.com/rss/consumer_article.aspx?storyid=51025

LOL!

Anonymous said...

Bush is the agressor. He
created the false metaphor "War on Terror"

Unfortunately for him we only pay tribute to leaders that focused on Peace rather than War.

JFK
MLK
Ghandi

History shows we hate agressors

Stalin
Saddam Hussein
Hitler

and now good ole George W. Bush.

Anonymous said...

As an experienced RE professional (3 years), I can confirm that it's a new paradigm, and everybody who doesn't buy, now, will be priced out forever. Anybody who does buy will be rewarded with a lifetime of riches, as their property will continue its 30% yearly price increase.

Renters, and anybody born in a future generation, will not be able to afford a $10,000,000 starter home in 15 years. They will live in tent cities, and Hondas.

This asset bubble is different than all of the others - it will never slow down, or pop. The gains are permanent.

Anonymous said...

If he thinks Phoenix market is healthy, then he should put his money where his mouth is and go and buy a property tomorow.

oldboy said...

Actually he makes some good points on his Bloodhound REalty Blog....you see Pheonix is different...right? right?

Metropolitan Phoenix is a unique real estate market. While other cities experience static — or even negative — population change, The Valley of the Sun routinely adds 100,000 new residents every year. There is no reason to think this will stop — not now and not soon.

oldboy said...

these sites — and not just HousingPanic — are infested with a cult-like fever to inflict suffering —

Suffering? Okay that's probably accurate, maybe agony. If you read Housing Panic you want children to cry and people to suffer.

Alan P. said...

...seething commentariat is to...

I think that I am insulted by that. No, I think if I understood that I would be insulted by it. No, I think that if that made any sense that I would be insulted by it. No, scratch that, it was meant as an insult, but it missed the mark badly. Time for some fresh die dies and a nappy now. He could have skipped the whole pseudo intellectual spiel and just wrote: "I strongly disagree with those potty heads over there!" Time will tell, see ya in the funny papers!

Anonymous said...

To the anon above who's a RE "professional" after only 3yrs in the biz. You are one of those "new" REpeople who has turned our industry into a joke. You jumped on the RE bandwagon when it was hot and you don't have a CLUE about this business. You make seasoned RE people cringe. It might be true that all goods continue to rise in price - I don't think we'll ever see a 10 cent cup of coffee but there's an undeniable supply and demand when it comes to housing or anything with such a large price tag. Go back to your "real" job.

geeski said...

anon above - can't you smell sarcasm?

Anonymous said...

oh, and this greg swann guy is a total tool. his only hope is that people will keep moving here. tool, total tool. and a self-serving tool at that. HP is doing a great service by provding edgy commentary. no wonder the RE tools are upset. my two pennies.

Mark in San Diego said...

BE KIND!. . .

This guy will be outa work as a realtor soon, and likely join the 11% unemployment in Phoenix this time next year (mortgage brokers, title company employees, realtors, construction workers, granite counter top salesmen!!!! and waiters at expense account restaurants . . .hmmm isn't that 80% of Phoenix's economy?). . .

Mark in San Diego said...

BY the way. . .
Cleveland and Detroit were the Phoenix of the early 20th century. . .growth in steel/cars - where hundreds of thousands of people fled New York and the crowded East coast for a better life. . .hmmmm. . .we all know how THAT ended up!!!

Awaiting Bubble Rubble said...

I think we'll be seeing a lot more realtors lurking on these blogs. MOst of them seem to have a lot more free time lately. I drove by an open house today and the poor lady was lonelier than the maytag repairman.

Anonymous said...

I was at Tapestry's open house(s) last weekend. There were at least 13 open houses in one building. I did not see any buyers, and few realtors, too. What a frickin' ghost town of building. Sad, sad, sad. Oh, and some FB has a condo there for sale for 665K for 1500SF, because it has designer paint. LOL.

Anonymous said...

IN RESPONSE TO ANONYMOUS "EXPERIENCED" RE AGENT...

as their property will continue its 30% yearly price increase.

I THINK YOU NEED TO TAKE ANOTHER
MATH CLASS OR SOMETHING. IF INCOMES WILL CONTINUE TO RISE ABOVE 30% A YEAR, YOU WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE CUSTOMERS, BUT MOST PEOPLE'S INCOMES AREN'T GOING UP... SO YOU WILL HAVE LOTS OF EXPENSIVE HOUSES TO SHOW BUT HARDLY ANY CUSTOMERS!

Renters, and anybody born in a future generation, will not be able to afford a $10,000,000 starter home in 15 years. They will live in tent cities, and Hondas.

$10,000,000 STARTER HOME!? IF NO ONE WILL BE ABLE TO AFFORD THEM, YOUR BREED WILL ALL BE OUT OF A JOB!

I THINK YOU NEED ANOTHER 10 YEARS TO YOUR RESUME BEFORE YOU CAN CALL YOURSELF EXPERIENCED!

I LIVE IN AN UPSCALE NEIGHBORHOOD AND I'M PAYING CLOSE ATTENTION TO EACH HOUSE WHICH IS FOR SALE. JUST TO GIVE YOU INFO ON ONE OF THEM...

LISTED FOR 1.4 M
AFTER TWO MOTNHS DOWN TO 1.265
LAST MONTH DOWN TO 1.185

Anonymous said...

This is an interesting rhetorical blast. This guy is actually pretty articulate. Love the historical references. Much cleverer than your average realtor, who's generally pretty barbaric. But he's the one who'll refuse to admit he was wrong, a year from now. The economically rational arguments are all on our side: the market is grossly inflated and must correct itself, probably by 50% in Phoenix, as anyone with half a brain can see. If confronted with his own words, he will change the subject.

As for his point that we want to see a catastrophe in the housing market, I would say that he has a point; when this whole thing comes apart, it won't just be the flippers who get hurt. On the other hand, the housing bubble has not been a good thing, overall, for this country. Many people priced out, including teachers, firefighters, cops, etc -- not good. And the flippers, well, they need to get a spanking or they won't learn. It's part of the creative destruction of capitalism. And if we use forceful rhetoric in talking about the impending burst of this bubble, it's because we need to counter the propaganda that has been emanating from the real estate industry for many years, which has encouraged people to leverage themselves into a grossly overinflated market in the fear of being "priced out forever."

Anonymous said...

The funny thing is that the sarcasm of the "Anonymous Real Estate Professional" was actually construed to be intended as a serious statement by a couple of people in this thread. The even funnier thing is that a few people still truly believe in such nonsense.

Yep, they're not making more land, real estate values always increase exponentially, no need to care about the extreme divergence from historical ratios of house values to income, you don't wanna miss out...sure. :) Then, someone comes along and spoofs this absurdity and the sarcasm is so close to the nonsense propaganda that some folks can't even tell the difference.

Patch Tuesday said...

Keith,

How long did you stay in jail after you got blamed for causing the Great Depression?

Anonymous said...

Keith...this guy who's blasting you is just very afraid. The fearful lash out.

He KNOWS what is heading his way..the fact the bubble blogs point it out without the sugar coating of the main stream media is what he can't take.

Lots of people are going to have to figure out a new way to make a living now that the real estate bubble gravy train has gone off line.

Anonymous said...

"As an experienced RE professional (3 years), I can confirm that it's a new paradigm, and everybody who doesn't buy, now, will be priced out forever. Anybody who does buy will be rewarded with a lifetime of riches, as their property will continue its 30% yearly price increase.

"Renters, and anybody born in a future generation, will not be able to afford a $10,000,000 starter home in 15 years. They will live in tent cities, and Hondas.

"This asset bubble is different than all of the others - it will never slow down, or pop. The gains are permanent."

======

This is an oldie but a goodie. Love the way he keeps posting it. It is funnier each time it goes up. Best of all is the way people go for the bait, taking it as face value and missing the irony. Good one, anon!

Anonymous said...

Love it. Love every word of it. Expect more as the bursting of the greatest bubble in history unfolds. These realtors put a lot of people into homes they couldn't afford, with toxic loans that they won't be able to handle -- they run into these people at the supermarket and the playground, and they have to endure their furious stares...

The realtors will have to find someone to blame, a scapegoat, somewhere to deflect the blame. Some will come after the blogs. But all they will do is increase traffic to this site and others like it, helping us get the message out. The more vitriolic their attacks, the more people will realize we are right. Keep it coming, Bloodhound!

Anonymous said...

I didn't know Bill O'Teilly moonlighted as a RE.

keith said...

oh, man, I hope he leaves the comments up - they're even better than the original post!!

keep at it HP'ers! making me proud

Sold at the peak said...

From the Wall Street Journal

Surviving a Real-Estate Slowdown
“To get a lay of the land, we tracked down Kenneth Heebner, who since 1994 has managed the $1.2 billion CGM Realty Fund. It has the best 10-year record of all real-estate-focused mutual funds….

Heebner:A significant decline in prices is coming. A huge buildup of inventories is taking place, and then we're going to see a major [retrenchment] in hot markets in California, Arizona, Florida and up the East Coast. These markets could fall 50% from their peaks.


Who is this seething commentator anyway.

Oh, yeah: manager of the best-performing real-estate-focused mutual fund....

Dogcrap Green said...

Congratualations on the attention. But des it really mean anything?

Dogcrap Green said...

Sidneyprice said,

If there were a persuasive counter-analysis to the HP assessment of the bubble, this blog would be swarming with pontificating trolls.

I get three hits a day :)

Towjam said...

"What seems much more likely is that Phoenix will recover from the hangover of last year’s buying binge and get back to a steady rate of growth — historically 6% a year"
Just like here in Fl that’s best case you can hope for, and that’s a bit optimistic.
More likely is 0% for a year or two would be the best-case scenario

John said...

The same thing happened to me during the internut blowup. I was pointing out on message boards that various internet companies were bogus and destined to fall in price. I advocated shorting them. As the prices fell I had people threatening to kill me as if I was making the stocks go down. History repeats.

Anonymous said...

Point-Counterpoint

1 ) The migration from the Snow Belt states to Metropolitan Phoenix has been unabated for 60 years.

And now with global warming, decreasing water supplies, and an overtaxed power grid, Phoenix will become the new symbol of "Hell on earth". Besides midwesterners still have "common sense" and will not pay thru the teeth for a POS in hell.

2 ) A similar extended migration is now occurring from the Northwestern states and Western Canada.

As the cooler areas of the country become warm and the hot areas of the country become unbearable, people will just walk away from their Phoenix hell holes.

3) The “installed base” of all those migrants brings a steady stream of extended family members.

Mexicans make minimum wage and as they become the majority the average salary will go down further depressing house prices. "White flight" will accelerate the falling prices.

4) Proposition 13 makes moving up difficult in California; many Golden State sellers buy in the Phoenix area.

Many Golden State sellers used to buy in the Phoenix area. Have you checked the explosion in inventory?

5) Californians in pursuit of other objectives — e.g., a friendlier business climate — migrate to the Valley of the Sun.

Chindia is the new destination for "friendlier" business climate.

6) Baby Boomers will retire in droves to warmer climes — the Atlantic coast, the Gulf states and the Southwest.

You mean the Baby Boomers who are losing their pensions, have no savings, and who somehow still hope their house will "save them"?

7) Among those locales, Phoenix is by far the least prone to natural disasters.

Phoenix IS a disaster. Phoenix is living on borrowed time with decreasing water and an aging power grid. Expect many to die in the intense heat waves.

8) Because of this, people from disaster-afflicted regions have formed a new stream of in-migration.

Because of what? See 7)

9) There is a steady migration of new residents from Spanish- and Portuguese-speaking countries south of the border.

Precisely, see 3)

10) Phoenix is a destination of choice or the second-landing city for immigrants from all over the world.

You mean Mexico? See 3)

11) While higher oil prices will put a strain on our far-flung suburbs, the greatest pain will be felt in Northern states where fuel oil or natural gas are used as heat sources; even people who don’t hate the winter will move to the Phoenix area to escape high heating bills.

And A/C costs won't go up as the world heats up and electrical costs skyrocket?

12) The Phoenix Metropolitan area is a dynamic jobs creation machine, adding tens of thousand of new jobs every year.

Si senor....see 3)

13) People who have or hope to have children move here as soon as they can manage it.

This is turning into a one trick pony...see 3)

14) Compared to the areas from which many of our in-migrants are drawn, our homes are still very affordable.

Are you telling us that homes in Mexico are the same price as homes in Phoenix? Keep drinking the kool-aid.

15) We build thousands more new homes every year.

For all the people who are moving in and cannot afford them...see 3) and to further strain the infrastructure....see 1). Besides with an already out of control inventory what does an explosion in supply do to prices when demand has dried up?

16) The Greater Phoenix area has 60 years of sustained practice at managing extreme growth — this in contrast to thrashing cities like Las Vegas.

Phoenix is a big sprawl after 60 years of growth and the water/power infrastructure is strained to the breaking point. Planning seems to have failed somewhere along the way.

17) Snowbirds, politely known as Our Winter Visitors, eventually move here year-around.

See 1) and 6)

18) Our first waves of massive migration occurred after WW II; mustered out soldiers who had been stationed here came back with their families; this pattern continues among people who are posted here temporarily for various reasons.

Yes, migrant workers tend to return with extended families....see 3)

19) People who stay at our resorts often fall in love with the Valley of the Sun and return as soon as they are able.

That is why inventory is spiraling out of control as all the people who can hardly wait to return must be detained by 9/11 security slowdowns at major airports all over the country. Yea, that's the ticket.

20) A significant number of active and retired professional athletes maintain homes here, in no small part because the Phoenix/Scottsdale area has…
As the browning of Phoenix continues nobody will be able to afford "luxury" items like watching overpaid grown men run around in their underwear bouncing their balls.

21) Year-around golf.

Mexicans don't play golf (except for Lee Trevino and he is dead)

So basically his whole argument boils down to "snow birds" and mexicans will come in droves and keep housing prices high?

You have just got to love these RE "professionals".

Sparks Welder said...

Keith =

First: he reads your site, as many real-estate hucksters probably do in secret.

Second: he's such a monumental tard that he drove traffic from his rose-colored optimist bullshit site (presumably viewed by prospective buyers) to your Site of Truth.

The desert earth will open up and swallow him whole when economic reality returns to no-real-economy areas like Phoenix.

Anonymous said...

This fellow thinks we are welcoming the catastrophe that he and the likes of him created. Well duh better to prick the boil before it becomes abcess. Prolonging this speculation-hype-pyramid-scheme market
would only make the reprecussions worst ... and they are already going to be bad.

dan said...

Yes this guy was truley cast in the Bush mold ... start a fire in a crowded theatre and then blame the carnage on the guy who yelled "fire".

uknowwhoiyam said...

This may be hard to hear, but Swann's (Bloodhound's) criticism of HP contains much truth.

Anonymous said...

"Whenever the subject of Phoenix comes up in a BubbleBlog, the assembled Brown Shirts pile on, for whatever reason."

"brown shirts"? and now he's blaming UPS for the Phoenix meltdown?

Anonymous said...

Whatever the faults of this blog may be, these Realtors and "flippers" have just drastically messed up the housing market nationwide, they should be ashamed.

foxwoodlief said...

I actually found this site looking for International Real Estate Bubble blogs. I've always been facinated on the outrageous prices of homes overseas. Even in Third World Countries I've been shocked by home costs, but then again if you want to live in a crime infested poor burb you can find a house for what American's would find "affordable" and having lived in Germany for three years was amazed at the price of a house there in the mid-80s. Even tody looking at London or a lot of places in England is shocking compared to the USA.

I'm th first to admit I don't understand the fundamentals of price after 32 years of working. I remember at 21 my wife and I lamented that we would never be able to afford the beautiful 3,000 sq ft custom built Rutenburg Homes in Tampa we fell in love with and they ranged from $28,000-45,000 back then (1976). What explains the high cost of homes in Europe since World War II? Speculative bubble and flippers? They don't have anything close to our real estate industry and most homes were bought to live in forever so why so expensive?

I'm sure supply and demand plays a large part as does that bubble mentality in America but there are still fundamentals that create a base price for the price of a home that isn't dependant on if our wages rise. How much does it cost to build? If Americans bought 1200 sq foot homes like our parents in the late 50s/early 60s, would homes be considered affordable today?

I do believe Phoenix has over built and greed has caused significant damage to the future of the area. Maybe a good thing since such rapid growth was destroying the quality of life with pollution, traffic, crime and turning it into a suburb of LA. The only thing that might save Phoenix is a major Earthquake in California destroying say 100,000 homes or more, if Pat Robertson is right and God sends that giant Tsunami into the Pacific NW and makes another 100,000 people homeless, oh and then two or three cat 4 hurricanes hitting say Florida, gulf coast or the NE destroying another couple of 100,000 homes, then I guess the home market in Phoenix will recover.

Anonymous said...

If he believes that the Phoenix market is not overvalued, maybe he should get some no-doc loans and start buying. Put your money where your mouth is!

Neighbors house is too cheap? Buy it. You know the truth, and you won't.

Anonymous said...

Priced too high
Hotter than hell
Oxygen polluted
End of bubble
Not hospitable for human beings
Insane serial killers
X-treme inventory

Anonymous said...

I DON'T believe it was the HP cult that marched the Phoenix Debt Slaves into the Forced Labor Concentration Camps FOR LIFE .

I DO believe it was the Gestapo from the Real Estate Industry that had SOMETHING to do with it .

Anonymous said...

Wow! Both he and Phoenix are hotter than Mel Gibson at a Traffic Stop!

A local Real Estate acquaintance is much nicer to me. She WANTS me to buys ONE of the 7 houses she OWNS and is ...STUCK with !

Right lady, as soon as the Pumpkin truck gets me into town and slows down.

Anonymous said...

Suggestion for Greg. Invest in some heels, a flirty blue dress, a little cleavage, and some new lipstick. Take two Valium 10's and ...Drive on . You CAN SELL A HOUSE TODAY Baby.

skytrekker said...

In years to come the current destination of boomers and retirees to places like Arizona and Florida will slow, then halt, then reverse.

Global warming will make the center of the country and the southwest into an inferno. 121 degrees in North Dakota, while Duluth MN has had the longest stretch of 90 degree weather on record. As those hated climatogolists and scientists have said- the center of the country is going to become hotter and drier.

The southwest will become even hotter and if possible have less precipitation.

It seems by the end of the century, the fringes of north America, the Pacific NW, northern coastal California, New England the the Canadian Maritimes will have 'cooler' weather- By the end of the century 'cooler New England' will have a climate like present day North Carolina- but still better then the baked and hell like conditions elsewhere.

Anonymous said...

Hey now...what's wrong with global warming? Think of all the wonderful new possibilities--Maine Pineapples, Montana Bananas, Minnesota Coconuts, and a new market for tropical resorts in places like Calgary, Edmonton, and eventually, Yellowknife, Nome, and Baffin Island.

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melloman said...

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gcmmello said...

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