HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Year

July 26, 2006

HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Year

Is a housing panic underway?

111 comments:

Anonymous said...: the panic is just getting started.; July 26, 2006 12:41 PM
Anonymous said...: yes... but this is just the early stages...; July 26, 2006 12:46 PM
The Thinker said...: The ignorant will be the last to experience panic and they will be the hardest hit.; July 26, 2006 1:42 PM
Anonymous said...: No - I see no "panic" - at least in the North East. Prices have come down a little - but not a panic.; July 26, 2006 1:48 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith,
How many times can you ask the same questions over and over and over and over...... Yes people are over extended on their life style and money will be tighter in future. But screw those people, live within your means.; July 26, 2006 1:56 PM
Anonymous said...: The panic isn't there yet. They are still drinking koolaid and talking about flipping, bidding over asking, getting RE licenses.

Panic is when the MSM jumps on board the gov't bailout bandwagon and starts showing how many people are losing their homes to foreclosure. Then the word gets out thet there will be NO bailout. Not the flippers, but real FBs who are being tossed out of houses they cannot pay for (job loss, ARM, undercolateralized loan, etc) and the families are out on the street.

When people see just how f'd they are, then panic will start. Right now it is just to bubbly. Wait until you see the whites of their eyes - and see the panic in them.; July 26, 2006 3:04 PM
Anonymous said...: Talk about f'n clueless...

Checking in from Central Ohio. Neighbor has had their home on the market for 7 months. No offers. Finally lowered the price by $10k (on a $500k+ home). Neighbors who are not selling are pissed - blame seller for lowering their home values. I mention home values are plunging here, and we're not even in a bubble here. Jaws drop - "What? What? What are you talknig about???"

Clueless...; July 26, 2006 3:06 PM
Anonymous said...: wait to the end of the year -- winter, no buyers looking, recession coming on, ARM resets looming... then you'll start to see the makings of a real panic.; July 26, 2006 3:14 PM
Anonymous said...: These folks are in a sort of panic i would say.....

http://www.boston.com/business/articles/2006/07/25/foreclosure_filings_in_mass_jump_66/; July 26, 2006 4:13 PM
Anonymous said...: Oh yeah, when the 2007 recession gets a lot of attention and they talk about it being triggered by the housing crash of 2006 that took out so mant RE related jobs and dried up the housing ATM. The MSM is starting to blame gentle Ben and his higher interest but they will not lay a finger on easy Al or the greedy flippers or the BOJ or the global increase in consumption of commodities.

Darn, throw in global warming, peak oil, overpopulation, nasty viruses, religous fanaticism and terrorism, human nature... and you have a pretty darn good storm brewing. Or maybe a very bad potion cooking in the cauldron.; July 26, 2006 4:38 PM
Anonymous said...: "Housing Panic Remark of the Year"

Hey Keith - why do your posts look the same day after day, month after month. When is this demigog supposed to happen anyway? I thought we were supposed to have an epic crash in (pick one): Oct 05, Nov 05, Dec 05, Jan 06, Feb 06, Mar 06, Apr 06, May 06, June 06, Jul 06. One of these months you will be right for sure.; July 26, 2006 4:47 PM
Anonymous said...: Not panicking yet. That will take a while longer.; July 26, 2006 4:52 PM
Anonymous said...: "Hey Keith - why do your posts look the same day after day, month after month. When is this demigog supposed to happen anyway? I thought we were supposed to have an epic crash in (pick one): Oct 05, Nov 05, Dec 05, Jan 06, Feb 06, Mar 06, Apr 06, May 06, June 06, Jul 06. One of these months you will be right for sure."

Funny, but like Keith, I am surprised by the sheer tenacity of such a stupid, avoidable, and visible bubble.

I was hoping it would blow in Jan 05 but looks like we have an additional 20% to lop off now since the insaity continued for 12 more months.; July 26, 2006 4:54 PM
Anonymous said...: They aren't smart enough to panic yet. They are all waiting for '07, the year the buyers all meet their demands. Delusional I'd call it.; July 26, 2006 5:04 PM
Anonymous said...: "Anonymous said...
Talk about f'n clueless...

Checking in from Central Ohio....."

Same here. Clueless. Prices not declining, since they never went up very much, but the few people that I know who are trying to sell for one reason or another (no flippers obviously) are not getting any nibbles at all. One friend has had a nice place on almost two acres up for sale at a fair price (for here) for over a year, with one reduction. Nothing.
Advice from his ditzy real estate lady: “Take it off the market and up the price!" That was back in November. Added $50,000. Still nothing. Talking about the bubble, trying to explain to him why now is not the greatest time to sell, and he hasn’t got a clue.
In his defense, and every body else around here, when you are not living in a bubble area, it's hard to relate. They cannot understand or fathom how a declining real estate market in California, Boston, or Florida could affect them here in PA. BUT IT WILL! Bad has a way of rippling outward.; July 26, 2006 5:09 PM
Anonymous said...: the Huntsville AL market is still relatively hot but it didn't bubble here, just inflate. These fools are still in bidding wars. It will shake out differently in different locations.; July 26, 2006 5:38 PM
Anonymous said...: Most people in SD believe the - "back to normal" scenerio. . .sure, prices may level off and come down a bit, but no panic. . .I think the best case is that we do have a 5 year orderly downtrend, and foreclosures will not push the economy into depression. . .a recession is in the cards, but the American consumer is nearly impossible to shut down. Two jobs - sure? Borrow on 401 - sure. . .send the kids to a community college - sure. . .; July 26, 2006 5:49 PM
Anonymous said...: IMO OH, IN, MI have weakening economies, foreclosures and high inventories. They may not have had an asset bubble but they are encountering deflation for other reasons. The result is the same in the end, falling prices.; July 26, 2006 5:52 PM
Anonymous said...: I can see the early stages of panic starting as more and more homeowners are moving from denial to anger.e.g Lots of condoowners lowering their asking prices sending their neighbors into a rage.; July 26, 2006 5:57 PM
Anonymous said...: The Smart Sellers may not have a Red Panic Button on their keybords but they certainly SHOULD have a Red "EJECT NOW" Button there as the Real Estate ENGINE is expeiencing a FLAMEOUT !; July 26, 2006 7:07 PM
Anonymous said...: My friends sold their house in Southern San Deigo, boy they are crossing their fingers it closes on Aug4. Three months and only 2 offers. Some place called Chula Vista? They said it was a nice place to live in the past, but it really taken a dive. They live somewhere else now and were never going back to "Mexico"; July 26, 2006 7:54 PM
Anonymous said...: None of this matters, people!

The Moshiach will soon appear and turn Israel's enemies to dust! No, not Jesus, as the deceived Christians believe. Then Olam Ha Ba will arrive, and all the world will be ruled by a great warrior king from Jerusalem under Halakhah or Jewish Law.

At last, the world's people will be at peace and governed by G-d's Chosen People. No more persecution of the Jews! Accept The Almighty's Law or be annihilated for eternity.

Shalom.; July 26, 2006 9:06 PM
Anonymous said...: Behold! The Moshiach comes!

Shalom.; July 26, 2006 9:09 PM
Anonymous said...: mazel tov moshiach, conquer those Mohammedan!

IMHO Panic will begin when median home prices drop by 10% in Orange County.; July 26, 2006 9:13 PM
Anonymous said...: No, no panic yet ... except among you guys who didn't buy anything so missed out on the major run-up of the century.; July 26, 2006 9:32 PM
Anonymous said...: " None of this matters, people!

The Moshiach will soon appear and turn Israel's enemies to dust! No, not Jesus, as the deceived Christians believe. Then Olam Ha Ba will arrive, and all the world will be ruled by a great warrior king from Jerusalem under Halakhah or Jewish Law.

At last, the world's people will be at peace and governed by G-d's Chosen People. No more persecution of the Jews! Accept The Almighty's Law or be annihilated for eternity.

Shalom."

This is funny considering in order for that to work you'll basically have to wipe out over 1 billion Muslims.

LOL; July 26, 2006 9:33 PM
Anonymous said...: I live on the peninsula in the SF Bay Area and houses seem to be still moving. I don't see any panic. People still driving expensive cars and doing home upgrading.; July 26, 2006 9:39 PM
Anonymous said...: Once the inventories lower, then things will normalize with lower prices. It's still fun to speculate when the bubble will burst, normal (pronounced boring) outcomes don't make for cool blogs.; July 26, 2006 9:55 PM
Anonymous said...: In the northeast- inventory not this high since 1997- the year we finially began to recover from the 7 year decline in house prices (1989-1996)

Lots of stuff on the market- much of it sitting.; July 26, 2006 10:02 PM
Anonymous said...: Speaking of Panic, Y2K
never happened... I'm just sayin.; July 26, 2006 10:17 PM
Miss Goldbug said...: In the SF Bayarea houses are still selling, but not at the same pace as last year. Here in Reno some have been on the market for a year or more. No panic yet, but sure do see more REDUCED signs on front lawns!; July 26, 2006 11:06 PM
Miss Goldbug said...: wait to the end of the year -- winter, no buyers looking, recession coming on, ARM resets looming... then you'll start to see the makings of a real panic.

Agree! The trifecta will appear- more homes on the market, reseting loans, and higher interest rates.

Very scary indeed.; July 26, 2006 11:07 PM
Anonymous said...: "This is funny considering in order for that to work you'll basically have to wipe out over 1 billion Muslims."

Of course! What do you think Israel is doing in Lebanon and soon to be Syria and Iran? Does The Law not say that the Moshiach will be known by the extent to which he defeats those who hate Israel? Does not President Bush say that his foreign policy is directed by The Almighty? Therefore, is not The Almighty acting through Bush to aid Israel in defeating its enemies? Is not US foreign policy an extension of Jewish Law and the will of The Almighty?

Shalom.; July 26, 2006 11:12 PM
The Thinker said...: A bust usually follows a boom; it is normal and quite common. It is the soft-landing scenario that would be quite out of the ordinary.

While we are talking about Y2K, we should also recall Y2K+1 the year the tech boom became the tech bust.; July 26, 2006 11:14 PM
The Thinker said...: Oh and Bush is certainly not the Messiah, just look at his approval ratings.; July 26, 2006 11:18 PM
Anonymous said...: " "This is funny considering in order for that to work you'll basically have to wipe out over 1 billion Muslims."

Of course! What do you think Israel is doing in Lebanon and soon to be Syria and Iran? Does The Law not say that the Moshiach will be known by the extent to which he defeats those who hate Israel? Does not President Bush say that his foreign policy is directed by The Almighty? Therefore, is not The Almighty acting through Bush to aid Israel in defeating its enemies? Is not US foreign policy an extension of Jewish Law and the will of The Almighty?

Shalom."

I don't talk about religion anymore.
And I don't talk about politics much anymore.

But I still talk about killing and genocide, and there's no way you're going to implement that plan.

Not that I care either way, just saying it's not going to work.; July 27, 2006 12:00 AM
Anonymous said...: Honestly it would be great if house prices dropped 50% or more and there was massive deflation, and a big economic collapse, then I could probably get cheap blowjobs from all the broke college girls who are now whoring themselves out.

But it's just not going to happen. Things like that don't happen. Guys like me don't get blowjobs from college girls.; July 27, 2006 12:02 AM
foxwoodlief said...: No Panic in Austin. The market is is as schizoid as it has been for years. Some neighborhoods sell in a day and others take months or even longer. In Lakeway there are still several houses I saw when I was shopping last year for a home and still on the market. One has lowered the price $35,000 since June05, the other two have actually raised the prices. Of course Lakeway is upper end and a lot of the homes are paid for as a large number are second homes for people from Houston and other parts of Texas so they see no reason to sell if they don't get what they want.

New homes are still selling. After seeing the market in Phoenix for the past five years it seems slow to me but for Austin they are having a banner year. Still, seems sustainable if you buy to live as it seems 3 or 4,000 building permits is a lot here.

In San Jose area where my family lives they tell me things are still increasing in price, though not at last years pace and selling. Prime properties in good shape are still selling quickly and those that haven't been taken care of a little more slowly or at a discount. In my paren't neighorhood they tell me ten homes are adding on or going up with a second story. The homes in the area go for $750,000 to 1.2 million and in most parts would sell for $150-350,000.

In Phoenix my friends tell me that the homes in their neighborhoods are sitting. In Avondale my friend says there are about 20 homes for sale in his neighorhood and most have been on the market for six to seven months and only two have sold in the past three months. He believes his house is worth $420,000 based on the last house like his to sell but Zillow says it is worth $359,000, he bought it in 2001 for $212,000 so he isn't worried or in a panic.

I'd say most people I know are in his boat. One friend bought a new house, put $250,000 down (paid $499,000) and put their house up for sell last Oct when the market was just shutting down. After one month they had an offer for $30,000 less than they wanted. I convinced them to take it, though they countered twice and ended up only taking $20,000 less than they wanted. The house was 1600 sq ft and a two story! They paid $125,000 for it in 1998 and owed $35,000. They sold it for $365,000 to a flipper who spent $20,000 up dating it and I don't know if he ever sold it.

I convinced them that to sit on the house and pay insurance, taxes, upkeep, gardener, the the remaining mortgage payment to see it sit for three months before coming down was a mistake. They were being greedy and should take the offer and run and that they were emotionally involved and can't take what the house next door sold for a month earlier. After selling they were thrilled and saw my point and were grateful they listened as they put the profit in the bank. They both are nurses and together make over $160,000 a year, two kids, frugal, paid off their cars and only have a mortgage.

So, over all, my friends in Phoenix are not in a panic since they are all living within their means.; July 27, 2006 12:13 AM
Anonymous said...: "feared for their own JOB SECURITY"

The main story of our lives.; July 27, 2006 12:28 AM
Anonymous said...: The end of the world is coming, the end of the world is coming, the end of the world is coming, they've been saying for the past 2000 or more years...

Never seems to come.

Dang ... and I was hoping for a housing crash tomorrow so I could get like 10 college age hotties to stay with me in exchange for sex every night and blowjobs, but I guess it's not happening.

Damnit.; July 27, 2006 12:35 AM
Anonymous said...: autofx in Phx said...

"Hey there Moshiach
~
"Messiah came. Certain Pharisees and rabbis refused to acknowledge Him as such because they feared for their own JOB SECURITY. They didn't like being called LIARS and HYPOCRITES in public, so they crucified Him, thus fulfilling scripture. Have you ever read Isaiah? Really read it? Then read Matthew/Mark/Luke/John right after that? Probably not. Have you ever investigated the New Testament for yourself to see whether it's anti-Semitic as you've probably been brainwashed to believe?

"Some people miss the boat when it comes to bubble/bust cycles, others err in spiritual matters... "

Perhaps starting with you? Try visiting these Web sites for some potentially shocking facts about the religion you profess.

http://christianism.com

http://tinyurl.com/gqz7z

Jesus is mythological, not historical, and most of the alleged predictions he fulfilled were written AFTER his imaginary life.

This has been known to objective scholars--especially historians, archeologists, and anthropologists--for well over a century, but True Believers aren't interested in facts. They only care about maintaining their own incredible delusions of spiritual superiority.

Incidentally, everything in Judaism and Islam is also plagiarized from paganism, so these religions are in no position to feel smug. But, the fiction about Jews rejecting a messiah named Jesus is really wearing thin.

The entire world may be destroyed because three primitive religions--Judaism, Christianity, and Islam--treat stolen mythology as historical fact, and fabricate evidence to support their claims. Allah, a moon god; Yahweh, a penis god; Jesus, a sun god. What a choice.; July 27, 2006 12:36 AM
Anonymous said...: Yeah I don't talk about religion anymore and a lot of that is because it's obvious that people lack basic reading comprehension skills, as both of our religious posters on here are showing.

???

Where the heck do you get this stuff anyway?; July 27, 2006 12:37 AM
Anonymous said...: "Jesus is mythological, not historical, and most of the alleged predictions he fulfilled were written AFTER his imaginary life."

Here's more info for you, look up Mithraism and its precursor, Zoroastrianism and ask yourself why the big three think that they're so original?; July 27, 2006 1:00 AM
Anonymous said...: You've got poor morons in India whose existence is basically popping out babies, and keeping track of their families.

Actually, that's what most of the people in the world do.

Planning? Thinking? Cause and effect?

Those are outside the boundary of at least 99% of the people in the world's frame of reference. Those people are not much different than sheep.

So when you get some extremely nutso people who are okay thinkers and planners but totally off their rocker, be they neo-conservatives, Nazis, Maoists, Muslims, whoever, it causes an even bigger problem.; July 27, 2006 1:39 AM
Anonymous said...: My friends sold their house in Southern San Deigo, boy they are crossing their fingers it closes on Aug4. Three months and only 2 offers. Some place called Chula Vista? They said it was a nice place to live in the past, but it really taken a dive. They live somewhere else now and were never going back to "Mexico"

I believe they now call it CHULA WANA Northern TIJUANA - The Mexicans are comming - Millions of them - DAMM just like cockroaches - I need a good EXTERMINATOR. Just like gangareen we need to chop off CHULAWANA and move the FENCE North 30 Miles and then put the Military there to stop the flow DEAD>; July 27, 2006 2:11 AM
Anonymous said...: The Real Estate Industry is still in 2005 mode in terms of labor and manufacturing production. The fact that 2006 won't meet that level and 2007 WILL be worse, means when builders, Mortgage, independent firms that have lived off the Housing boom regroup for 2007, they will downgrade production AND labor for the 2007 fiscal year. What does that mean? US Recession and layoffs. Ala just like 2001.

So when you "here" people say that labor is still strong, manufacturing production is still 'strong'. Waggle your finger and slap them. They aren't strong no more. They are just being produced that way because of the business models running on peek boom productivity losing money.

2007 will be a major industry reduction and overhaul. How the overall economy and foreign investers handle this will tell us if a crash is in the offering or just a plain ole recession.; July 27, 2006 3:19 AM
Anonymous said...: The massive speculatory bubble and its bohemian offshoot, the Real Estate bubble are almost dead!!!!

Uh, its "hear", not "here", unless that was meant to be a joke.

Yeah, Pelte is going to layoff half their labor force in 2007. Just a sign of whats coming.; July 27, 2006 3:32 AM
Anonymous said...: The massive speculatory bubble and its bohemian offshoot, the Real Estate bubble are almost dead!!!!

Uh, its "hear", not "here", unless that was meant to be a joke.

Yeah, Pelte is going to layoff half their labor force in 2007. Just a sign of whats coming.; July 27, 2006 3:32 AM
Miss Goldbug said...: "I live on the peninsula in the SF Bay Area and houses seem to be still moving. I don't see any panic. People still driving expensive cars and doing home upgrading."

I noticed that over in the east bay too - the nice ones are still selling.
Here in Reno, I saw a afew teardowns in my area (houses were really nice!?)and replaced them with these ugly mcmansions that tower over other homes and fill up every inch of the property. Wont be able to get a car in the garage either because of the strange angle of the garage to just get it to fit on the lot. Disgraceful, thats what it is. Dont these people see that?; July 27, 2006 4:25 AM
Anonymous said...: Pulte Profit, Orders Drop

By Nicholas Yulico
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter
7/26/2006 5:42 PM EDT

Pulte Homes (PHM - commentary - Cramer's Take), continuing to be hurt by a slowing U.S. housing market, reported a drop in second-quarter earnings and a 30% decline in new orders Wednesday. The homebuilder also cut its guidance once again for the year.

Pulte's earnings from continuing operations fell to $243.9 million, or 94 cents a share, from $305.2 million, or $1.16 a share, a year earlier. Analysts expected earnings from continuing operations of 90 cents a share, according to Thomson First Call.

Net income, which includes losses from discontinued operations, fell to $243 million, or 94 cents a share, from $303.7 million, or $1.16 a share.

Revenue rose 3% from last year to $3.36 billion, beating analyst estimates of $3.30 billion.

However, new orders -- a key predictor of a homebuilder's future growth prospects -- fell to 9,455 homes from 13,581 a year earlier. Pulte's backlog was valued at $6.9 billion at the quarter's end, compared with a value of $7.8 billion a year earlier.

Pulte slashed its 2006 earnings projection to $4 to $4.30 a share, down from the guidance it gave in early June of $4.70 to $5 per share. Analysts, on average, had forecast a profit of $4.44 a share.

"Our second quarter results reflect the changing dynamics being experienced in the homebuilding industry," Richard J. Dugas Jr., Pulte's CEO, said in a statement. "After several years of limited house inventory and robust demand, the supply of homes for sale continues to increase, while greater buyer uncertainty about purchasing a home at this time is being further impacted by their inability to sell existing homes and the effect higher prices and interest rates are having on overall affordability."

The company experienced a 270-basis-point decline its gross margin to 21.1% in the quarter, partially dragged down by a $62 million write-off resulting from adjustments to land inventory and land held for sale. This charge includes the write-off of depositions and pre-acquisition costs association with land transactions the company no longer plans to pursue.; July 27, 2006 5:00 AM
Anonymous said...: More and more people are starting to "get it", ie. that the market is in for a crash. Word is slowly spreading. At some point it'll snowball: the more people are aware, the more the news will spread like wildfire.

I am astounded at how many more people are aware now than were last fall and winter and even spring.

When I ask them how they know the market's going to crash, the answer's always the same - they've learned about all the funky loans and expect foreclosures and prices to plummet.

It's not panic yet, but it will be soon. Word is spreading fast now.; July 27, 2006 5:48 AM
Anonymous said...: One great result of the Bush years will be the death of religion in politics and maybe
in our society in general. Good riddance.
It's going to be poetically satisfying to
watch religion die due to its own overreach.
Adios gods.; July 27, 2006 8:10 AM
Anonymous said...: The panic will not be in full force until the concept of a gov't bailout NOT happening sinks in. Not for the FBs, not for the poison loan holders, not for the displaced. Then there will be panic.; July 27, 2006 1:57 PM
The Thinker said...: On religion, there are only two possible situations, either there is only one true religion or there are no true religions. Most people seem to prefer the first choice, and that leads to the second question, “Which religion is the one true religion”. And to this question there are two answers, either you believe that your own religion is the one true religion or you believe that someone else’s religion is the one true religion. Again, most people seem to prefer the first choice.

And so it seems that we go on living thinking that everyone but the people who think like us are wrong. Now what do you do about it? There are two options, you can either fight or otherwise demean people of other faiths or you can tolerate them. Tolerance is saying “even though I think you are a crackpot, I am content to let you carry on as long as you are not hurting anybody.”

Pointing out reasons why someone’s chosen faith cannot be true serves no positive purpose and can often be inflammatory. Just look at how “autofx in Phx” reacted when someone challenged his beliefs. He became inflamed and began to challenge the beliefs of others thus escalating the problem.

And I am willing to bet that this “Moshiach” guy isn’t even Jewish, he is just some troll trying to stoke the flames of religious intolerance, and look how “autofx in Phx” took the bait!; July 27, 2006 2:18 PM
Anonymous said...: The athiest or agnostic have butchered far more in history than religion ever did.

Yeah right, you are full of it, most wars and deaths can be linked to religon. You must think also think that we have the best man at the helm too. Go park your Yukon or Hummer in the garage and leave it running while listening to Rush.; July 27, 2006 3:43 PM
Anonymous said...: wrong.

you must have received a public indoctrination...er eduction.

check your facts and put down the bong.

Pol Pot alone wasted 2 MILLION+!

2 MILLION!!!!!!

add that to those "purged" under Mao and Stalin(as well as all other communists)and you get a staggering picture of what a lack of religion does.

The numbers killed in the Spanish inquisition pale when compared to the Communists and Atheist throughout history.; July 27, 2006 4:04 PM
Anonymous said...: I think Stalin takes the cake.

"Early researchers of the number killed by Stalin's regime were forced to rely largely upon anecdotal evidence, and their estimates range as high as 60 million"

thats right, you read that correctly.

"high as 60 Million"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Stalin; July 27, 2006 4:11 PM
Anonymous said...: oh and don't forget the runner up,

Mao Zedong

During our friend Mao's rule:

"the official data implied that around 15 million excess deaths incurred in China during 1958-61 and that based on her modelling of Chinese demographics during the period and taking account of assumed underreporting during the famine years, the figure was around 30 million. Various other sources have put the figure between 20 and 43 million"

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mao_Zedong#War_and_Revolution; July 27, 2006 4:18 PM
Anonymous said...: dotcom/tech bubble under clinton = good

real estate bubble under bush = evil

that makes perfect sense; July 27, 2006 4:19 PM
Anonymous said...: Marxism and humanism reject religion because they do not allow for the concept of unalienable rights. In their view, the state grants all rights and privileges. This worldview lead to the deaths of more than 100 million people in the 20th Century (mostly by edicts of Mao and Stalin).

Unalienable rights require a belief in powers beyond the realm of Man. It's sad to see so many "educated" people scoff at religion or spirituality as being irrelevant in "modern" society. IMO they are digging their own graves.; July 27, 2006 4:27 PM
Anonymous said...: add that to those "purged" under Mao and Stalin(as well as all other communists)and you get a staggering picture of what a lack of religion does.

As if it's the religion? No.
Sudan has plenty of religion, and genocide galore. Rwanda too.
And what about the Aztecs?

Religious authority has been cozying up to dictators and tyrants forever.

Unalienable rights require a belief in powers beyond the realm of Man.

This incorrect belief ought to have died out in the Enlightenment. Funny how the people most forceful towards the unaliable rights of Man were the least religious of their age.

People are regressing, but this is what you get from a poor edumacation.

It is Enlightnment philosophy, and only that, which is the only barrier between barbarism and decency.

Only aggressively stupid conservatives imagine this comes from religion. Perhaps in 500 BC, certain monotheism forms were better than the revolting paganism around it, and the Enlightenment took the best parts of that.

both religious traditionalism and atheistic communism are compatible with tyranny.; July 27, 2006 4:47 PM
Anonymous said...: People these is about money and real estate. Not religion or poltical persuasion.

But since you started, evolution has always gotten rid of the lower end of the bell curve, that does not adjust.

So yes, if you are a religious freak - fundamentalist -> whether a moses head, allah head, jesus freak, etc - as long as you belive in jesus, santa claus, and the tooth fairy, you are hurting the combine IQ of humanity.

At this moment the planet has @6.6 billion people, 1.3 billion roughly are the dumbasses that make up the lower end of the bell curve and are screwing up the rest of the planet -those 5.3 billion of us that want to live happily, clone ourselves, etc.

So will you please just nuke yourselves up already. Us 5.3 billion will survive and prosper and move on as the combine IQ goes up. We really need this cleansing -- I know it will be with food shortage & $10 a gallon. But the idiots need to go ASAP.; July 27, 2006 4:51 PM
Anonymous said...: slinging insults is what the left is good at when faced with facts.

poor fools.; July 27, 2006 4:58 PM
Anonymous said...: >>> But since you started, evolution has always gotten rid of the lower end of the bell curve, that does not adjust.

I feel really bad posting the following, and hope someone can tell me its not true.

I am afraid we are subverting evolution with welfare. My wife and I do well, and have tested at the high end of the curve, but we have two kids, and leaving it at that.

But then I read stories of welfare mom's with 7 kids from 4 daddies who have never worked, and are themselves a child of a welfare mom that had many kids. All of the kids did not finish high school, and are now going out into the world. This is not good for our crime rate to say the least...

Please someone tell me this is an exception, and not the rule? My thinking is that in a darwin environment people who can't afford 7 kids on their own (or not smart enough to keep the daddy around) did not have good prospects for their kids survival. But now with welfare we are allowing people to successfully reproduce at a level beyond their ability to support their offspring. And I don't just mean food and housing, but the ability to spend enough time with the kids and give them a balanced moral up bringing so they succeed in society.

Please tell me I am wrong....
(Don't flame me as being racist or other crap, please give facts); July 27, 2006 5:15 PM
Anonymous said...: "This is funny considering in order
for that to work you'll basically
have to wipe out over 1 billion
Muslims."

Yeah, well, they're working on it.; July 27, 2006 5:26 PM
Anonymous said...: >>> Welfare is the price you pay, so it won't be a Brasil. However, Welfare without SERIOUS birth control is the problem. There is no problem

I agree that is the problem. I believe we should have welfare as a "safety net" to help people, and I don't want to see kids starve or be on the streets. But the problem is the incentives in the system currently in which there is a benefit to having more kids, as opposed to a disincentive to act as a feedback mechanism.

Middle class girls don't want to get pregnant and ruin their plans for college, career, and eventually professional husband. To a female child of a welfare mom a kid means getting assistance for a place of her own, benefits increases per child, "independence", etc.

Not a good system. But we can't force people to use birth control...; July 27, 2006 5:38 PM
Anonymous said...: "Not a good system. But we can't force people to use birth control..."

We should ... China is my hero for that.

Otherwise the world's just going to be WAY WAY too populated.

It's already WAY too populated.; July 27, 2006 5:46 PM
Anonymous said...: "I am afraid we are subverting evolution with welfare. My wife and I do well, and have tested at the high end of the curve, but we have two kids, and leaving it at that."

Wow, I posted this a while back somewhere and everybody flamed me!!!

Yes, we are devolving as a species because the stupidest humans are having the most kids!; July 27, 2006 5:49 PM
Anonymous said...: welfare or lack of welfare will not solve that problem.
only education and mainly sex education can help.
india has no welfare system for example. no safety net of any type other than the compassion from passerby on the streets that keeps some people barely alive.; July 27, 2006 5:51 PM
Anonymous said...: The disencentives in the present safety net/welfare system are the way they are because take a look at who is running the programs. It's not the liberal bogeyman - the people running it are the republicans- not the old true republicans, but the jesus freaks proto-fascist republicans.

Do you think these people are actually going to do anything for promoting birth controls - Please they are so delusional with the jesus is coming thinking that like I said before they are dragging down the combine human IQ and slowing down human progress...

This crowd here is waiting for jesus -the messiah, they are going to get jesus alright, but he is a gardener from mexico. The problem is the same whether the lunatic jew waiting for the messiah, the jesus freaks for the second coming, the shites for their 12th hidden imman - the lunatics are screwing it up for humanity.; July 27, 2006 6:05 PM
Anonymous said...: "This crowd here is waiting for jesus -the messiah, they are going to get jesus alright, but he is a gardener from mexico. The problem is the same whether the lunatic jew waiting for the messiah, the jesus freaks for the second coming, the shites for their 12th hidden imman - the lunatics are screwing it up for humanity."

It seems pretty obvious that humans are naturally screwed up, and destined to destroy themselves.

When you consider that something like 98% of humans can't think abstractly, plan effectively, divorce themselves from superstitious thinking, act without a lot of emotion, etc.

The human race is extremely f*cked.; July 27, 2006 6:08 PM
Anonymous said...: I think its bigger then just the US housing bubble. I mean - if the yearly growth of the world economy is, lets say a modest 3%, then this alone translates into a doubling-rate each 23 year. That is: a quadrupled world-economy after 46 years, and so on. So this "growth" cannot be forever - obviously. Add to this debt-based growth (everyone must borrow to expand) + fiat currency (money not backed up with real values) + fractional reserve (only a relatively small minority can simultanously take out there savings without the whole system closes down/crashes). Add to this peak oil + US suburbia misalocation + the debt-based SUV/Mc-mansion going-to-war-to-defend mentality. And so on...

Something is rotten with the fish as a whole. We shall see the next 10 years.; July 27, 2006 6:37 PM
Anonymous said...: Seems to me the general consensus of average Joe's on the street is that they think RE is the place to be, in a month or so they'll start to hear about it being somewhat of a buyers market, which means the next 6 months will be the dead cat bounce period. Q1 2007 when the Christmas shopping numbers come in an some Targets and Best Buys actually close their doors and more MAJOR sales at the mall and more going out of business sale at the mall and boarded up stores, then the word on the street will start to turn towards housing really starting to slow, then about Q3 of 2007 well see the actual housing panic. Which basically means that everyone on this blog is about 2 years ahead of the curve having been talking about the housing panic since summer 2005. Look for a dead cat bounce in housing for the next few months and people thinking they're getting a deal buyng a falling knife. Even the Great Depression didn't hit bottom til 1932, 3 years after the stock market collapse. It just kept falling and falling. 1929 was faster because you could see in real time what the price was, right now we won't see what todays house prices are until 4 months from now. How can you price a house that's for sale until it's sold? You can't. And if it's sitting for 12 months, well, the price will be determined 12 months later, all the while it's real price just wasn't being advertised. That delay is why we're not seeing a housing panic yet.; July 27, 2006 7:00 PM
Anonymous said...: CFC CEO Angelo Mozilo said on Tuesday:

" I've never seen a soft landing in 53 years, so we have a ways to go before this levels out"

"I have to prepare the company for the worst that can happen"; July 27, 2006 7:05 PM
Anonymous said...: "'Unalienable rights require a belief in powers beyond the realm of Man.'

This incorrect belief ought to have died out in the Enlightenment. Funny how the people most forceful towards the unaliable rights of Man were the least religious of their age."

So how do you complete the argument for unalienable rights if they are granted by Men? We don't need Kurt Godel to point out the flaws in your "enlightened" line of reasoning. As for the piety of the founders, yes, some were decidedly non-Christian. But all of them were able to grasp the irreducibility of certain concepts, something that modern Marxists and childish Humanists never learned. Throughout history, those who placed Man at the top of the heap are the ones who caused the most grief.; July 27, 2006 7:05 PM
Anonymous said...: I think the Dems like welfare. LBJ got his 100 years of N votes when they passed welfare. Shillery is taking plays from the same book. Print, debt, tax, spend...

Please consider the "American Dream Initiative".

The initiative was unveiled Monday at the annual meeting of the centrist Democratic Leadership Council by Democratic Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York with support from Sen. Evan Bayh of Indiana and Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack. All three may run for president in 2008.

"This American Dream initiative is a series of proposals to renew and strengthen the middle class and to help pave the way for the poor to work their way out of poverty," Clinton told about 375 local and state Democratic elected officials.

Democrats outline 'dream' project

$3,000 college tuition tax credits to help families pay for college.
A permanent "saver's credit" aimed at helping low-income families build equity by having the government match 50% of their savings, up to $2,000 a year.
$500 savings bonds for each of the 4 million children born annually in the United States and letting families with income under $75,000 augment the bonds by putting existing annual tax credits in them.
Pooling small businesses into a single national insurance purchase pool to augment bargaining power and streamline administrative costs.
Universal health care for children. The DLC says 9 million Americans under age 18 are uninsured.
Setting up an independent commission to crack down on business subsidies, which Clinton, Vilsack and their compatriots believe save the government $250 billion over 10 years.
Tax credits for employers that offer employee housing assistance programs, especially for public employees, and a $5,000 tax credit for first-time home buyers.; July 27, 2006 7:13 PM
foxwoodlief said...: To anonymous who loves to NAME call, first I'm married (Not to a guy...but that should be legal) and where in my post did you get I said, "There isn't a bubble?" I do believe there are bubblets all around the world but just because I won't pay those prices and choose to shift my assets to areas that I feel are safer and, doesn't matter if it is money market funds, stocks, or cash or real estate you constantly have to analyze where the best place for your finanical situation is to place those assets.

I gave my input on what I am seeing about the question about are people in a panic yet. People only panic when they have no options or are over extended or have to sell. Since I don't know anyone who falls into the categories of over extended, used their house for an ATM, make minimum wage and try to live like millionaires, I don't see any panic.

Doesn't mean there are people out there that over paid, are over extended, or such. I just don't know them personally. There seems to be more people out there doing very well than barely surviving. Even the people I know that make low wages are doing okay. Yes they are one pay check away from being homeless (not all) but as you religious folk know Jesus said, "The poor ye have always" . I pay enough in taxes to do my part for the poor in this country and I personally choose and help individuals that I know and help them when the need arises.

Anonymous must be one of those poor individuals whose momma didn't love him/her, didn't go to college, works at McDonalds, has credit card debt up to his neck and is jealous of his brother who apparently is more successful. Why else would you be so vicious toward those who don't spout the words you want to hear? Not my problem you can't afford a house. Not everyone should own a house.

I've worked hard all my life, I've gone without many times in my 20s living in an efficiency apartment, no furniture but a chair and sleeping on rolled up newspapers for my bed and even living in my car for a few weeks when I moved to a new city and didn't have a job. I've eaten flour with yeast baked and then covered in mayonaise for meals because I lived within my minimum wage income while I went to college. No rich parent buying me a house to live in while they paid for me to go to college. I served in the AF and when I retired I forfeited my pension because I felt it immoral for the tax payer to pay for my retirement at 42.

All I can say is there are lots of areas homes are over valued and too many people treat homes as a quick path to riches instead of the old fashion way, living below your means. I do believe that events can trigger a world wide depression or hyper inflation. The world may be ready for WWIII and as in all conflicts there will be winners and losers.

Still, at the present, I don't see panic and people running wild in the streets. The day may come when we'll see tens of millions of unemployed rioting in the streets like we saw in early 1900s until the ultra rich realized that they needed to create a middle class that had something to loose or they'd end up like Russia, a lesson a lot of them have forgotten in the past 20 years.

I do believe prices in areas like California are unsustainable unless we have high inflation. I believe most of us don't realize that we do! Look at the price of clothes, food, gas, taxes, homes, cars, those higher prices are due to the fact our dollar is worth less and less every day. Fiat money is not the place to place your assets. Gold isn't that safe either.

I don't pretend to know what will happen next year, ten years from now, or tomorrow. I've been waiting for this so called housing bubble to pop since the 1970s! Yes there have been cycles but after each the price goes higher and higher and I'm not stupid enough to think because my wages have gone up that I'm more wealthy.

Mr Annonyous you need to put some of your cards on the table so we can help yoU! Apparently you are a very angry and bitter person. If I lost all my assets tomorrow I would still be happy. Maybe more happy not having the burden of worrying about protecting what I have! We all go to the grave with nothing. If I own a house, great, if I don't great, though the security of having one's own place and not being subject to the whims of your landlord or the increase in rent each year has its place.

Things will always be someway as my great Grandmother would always say. Our grandparents saw the Great Depression, a couple of World Wars, Korea, Vietnam, social turmoil, race riots, and they survived as we all will no matter what happens with the price of a house.; July 27, 2006 7:32 PM
Anonymous said...: Yes, we are devolving as a species because the stupidest humans are having the most kids!
Before reading this I thought this blogs membership was devoid of Rational thought - Thank You for the Truth because without Truth Nothing Changes...; July 27, 2006 7:49 PM
Anonymous said...: Foxwoodlief Said - I've worked hard all my life, I've gone without many times in my 20s living in an efficiency apartment, no furniture but a chair and sleeping on rolled up newspapers for my bed - I served in the AF and when I retired I forfeited my pension because I felt it immoral for the tax payer to pay for my retirement at 42.
Well Mr Foxbullshiter- first how many years in your 20's did you do all that shit because for you to have a Retirement you need to spend 20 years in the Military so if you retired at 42 that minus means you joined up at 22 so for a whole 2 years you supposidly suffered and then like Christ the Saviour you gave up your military pension - BULLSHIT...; July 27, 2006 8:02 PM
Bill said...: http://tinyurl.com/puytx

umm its starting to look like a junk yard here.; July 27, 2006 8:22 PM
Anonymous said...: Something is rotten with the fish as a whole.

Nicely said.; July 27, 2006 9:23 PM
foxwoodlief said...: For your informaton Anonymous I left home at 17. And what is "bullshit" about choosing to give up a pension i didn't believe in? Do I regret it? Sometimes when I see my fellow-retired AF friends enjoying the extra money but then I earn more they they do so they still need it. My two best friends stayed in the AF for 24 an 25 years and one works civil service at Luke as a QA inspector on aircraft (which is what he had done in the AF) and the other works as a Union steward/maintenance person at one of the auto proving grounds out past Sun City. The only time I regret not taking the money is when I think about the fact that at 42 I could have gone overseas and lived pretty well on that pension instead of working another ten years.

Also because I had just returned from Saudi Arabia in Desert Storm in 1992 I had no desire to be "available" to be recalled to active duty in case another war broke out, which took a lot longer than I expected. I guess if I needed the money I would have taken it but I didn't then or now and even if I squandered my money I'd still inherit from my California Parent's enought to be comfortable when they die (they are 72 now) so why take money from the Government when I don't need it?

I believe that Social Security should have a means test and also that there should be no cap on the amount of income taxed, especially if there is no means cap and the rich will draw from the fund even if they don't need it. I've never believed in Big Government or that I should expect the government to rescue me from my own mistakes. In many ways how would our American consumers act if they didn't think they had the government to fall back on in old age? Do you think they'd spend so freely and go into debt and not save?

What is wrong with having principles? When I as in New Orleans this past week I met people who told me they didn't take any government money because of Katrina. They too said their friends thought they were nuts because the money was there they should have taken it. One individual told me he had to go to Chicago until they said it was okay to return but he had savings, returned to a job, his house in the Lower Garden was intact and undamaged so why should he take money from others who lost everything?

Just like there are many Christians, Jews, Muslims and people of other faith who live by their creeds and principles, even us atheists can have morals and principles. I just don't think that the government should pay me a pension after 20 years unless it was deferred until true retirement at 67. Why should I get $250,000 for 20 years of retirement when I only served in the AF for 20 years to start with? Then if I lived past 62 for another 20 years? Sorry, that is wrong. I had a patient who was 99 and hat retired at 62 and boasted that she made more in retirement than she ever earned working. I guess I can't fault her for living so long but that is definitely different than paying some 38-44 year old a pension when they are still young enough to work.

My AF buddies thought me crazy, maybe I am, maybe I'll regret it, maybe I gambled on a war that I would get called back into that didn't come when I expected (sort of like when will home prices crash) and was wrong so I could have sucked up the past 14 years of pension money and invested it into what, a rental?

I'm the first to admit that idealism has its limits and often as we get older we recognize how foolish it was to have ideals to begin with, but how much better off would we all be if the government was there only to pick up the lowest and most unfortunate of society instead of everyone from the rich on down feeding at the taxpayers trough.; July 27, 2006 9:50 PM
Anonymous said...: fox,

That's a respectful thing you did even though I wouldn't have done it. The problem is that in this world it's dog eat dog. If you don't take your share of the pie there is someone else that would be more than happy to have your share + his share.

I have this argument in corporate America all the time. Our server was fine but the VP offered to buy us a new disk array to host another system we could already handle. I argued with my coworker that we should take it because it was offered and if we didn't the corp would waste it on something else. He said (like you) that we didn't need it and wouldn't take it. So we passed and then 6 months down the road when we did need it, they didn't have any money in the budget for us. It's been 2 years since and now they are saying a 50% shot for FY08. Meanwhile we're all banging our heads against the wall due to lack of storage.

Moral = if you rightfully earned it you should take it, even if you don't need it or someone else will; July 27, 2006 10:20 PM
Anonymous said...: Several poster write regarding those that are not faith-based being hitler youth.

May I remind of you of Leo Strauss -father of neo-conservative thinking, idea creator of this fine mess we are in.

His point in a nutshell is this. There is no god, there is no proof any god existed, has existed or likely will exist. Because of human nature/evolution -the need to follow the Alpha male -humans need to believe. Few are those that have the ability to transcend the feelings (the void,emptiness,etc) that true knowledge of the universe is -They need to beleive & they need to be told gently what to believe - and that is religion's job. Otherwise Leo Strauss felt they would turn into monsters like the Nazis.

But this my friend, is manipulation, just like communism, fascism, or any other -ism. A more honest approach is to acknowledge the feelings, accept reality, and find true solutions based on facts, not on fantasy. In short the best analogy I can think of fast is the ideas in something like Star Trek, at least this makes sense and would promote a better world, instead of tribalistic pissing contest trying to find out whose mythological character pisses farther.; July 27, 2006 10:38 PM
Anonymous said...: "One great result of the Bush years will be the death of religion in politics and maybe in our society in general. Good riddance. It's going to be poetically satisfying to watch religion die due to its own overreach. Adios gods."

"MAN CREATED GOD IN MAN'S IMAGE SO THAT GOD COULD CREATE MAN IN GOD'S IMAGE."

Consider that the human mind, via thought, cannot conceive of its own ending, that is, its ceasing to be following the demise of the body. IOW, the very perception of the mind of the existence of the thinker or "I" or "me" or "the self" precludes the ability to perceive of the thinker as non-existent.

Therefore, the mind/thought is compelled to imagine itself remaining intact beyond the death of the physical body, which is the principal motivation for the psycho-emotional constructs of "life after death", "reincarnation", "the soul", "Paradise", "Heaven", "Hell", etc.

There will always be gods as long as there are human beings to imagine them. There are effectively as many gods as there are human beings. My god is better than your god or no-god, and I'll prove it: If you don't accept my god and worship Him (me, that is), I'll kill you and your god, rape your women, and slit your children's throats and eat their livers.

If one is to have a god, He had better be the meanest, most ruthless, jealous, unforgiving, irrational, murderous SOB of them all.; July 27, 2006 11:17 PM
The Thinker said...: "Moshiach," I am willing to bet your real name is Mohamed.

Your purpose on this board is clearly to drive a wedge between Jews and Christian relations so that we turn on eachother like Sunnis and Shiites.; July 27, 2006 11:25 PM
Anonymous said...: "You've got poor morons in India whose existence is basically popping out babies, and keeping track of their families.

Actually, that's what most of the people in the world do."

Keep in mind that about 10-15% of the world's population lives generally at the level of we in the West, whereas something like 5 billion plus pathetic creatures live in unspeakable squalor and depressingly miserable conditions in many or even most cases WORSE THAN ANIMALS, as animals have many more instinctive skills for survival and are quite well adapted to their ecosystems (despite constant extinction and mutation).

If an asteroid the size of Australia struck the Earth today and wiped out all of we miserable creatures in a matter of hours, days, or weeks, seriously, what would the loss ACTUALLY be to the universe as a whole?

Want a perspective on it all? Take a look at some of the Hubble telescope photos. We human beings are unremarkable randomness and less significant that a speck of cosmic dust blown by the solar wind.; July 27, 2006 11:34 PM
Anonymous said...: "Your purpose on this board is clearly to drive a wedge between Jews and Christian relations so that we turn on eachother like Sunnis and Shiites."

Wrong again! And don't insult me with the name of a Mohammedan. The wedge is already there between we Jews and everyone else; the Almighty put it there from the beginning of Creation!!! When non-Jews come to realize this, there will be no need for them to see a wedge or drive it; they will accept the superiority of Jews and understand what they have to gain by submitting to The Almighty and The Law. It is non-Jews' resistance to the will of the Almighty that is "the wedge" between them and Him.; July 27, 2006 11:41 PM
Anonymous said...: " Moshiach said...

"Your purpose on this board is clearly to drive a wedge between Jews and Christian relations so that we turn on eachother like Sunnis and Shiites."

Wrong again! And don't insult me with the name of a Mohammedan. The wedge is already there between we Jews and everyone else; the Almighty put it there from the beginning of Creation!!! When non-Jews come to realize this, there will be no need for them to see a wedge or drive it; they will accept the superiority of Jews and understand what they have to gain by submitting to The Almighty and The Law. It is non-Jews' resistance to the will of the Almighty that is "the wedge" between them and Him. "

Somebody just hit me with a hammer in the head instead of this crap.; July 27, 2006 11:52 PM
Anonymous said...: But then I read stories of welfare mom's with 7 kids from 4 daddies who have never worked, and are themselves a child of a welfare mom that had many kids. All of the kids did not finish high school, and are now going out into the world. This is not good for our crime rate to say the least...

This is an argument for easy, legalized abortion. Read "Freakonomics": easier abortion rights have lead to a lower crime rate.

By the way, I also know a welfare mother who had a child young. She went to community college while raising a small child on welfare. She was frugal and taught her child well, and transferred into a major university, graduated. She even went to graduate school, and soon became a PhD in genetics, from which she was heavily recruited as a star by Caltech and UCLA. She now works in genetics research and has two more beautiful children with her new husband.

This is a true story.; July 28, 2006 2:06 AM
Anonymous said...: So, if we're the "Chosen People" then why does all that crap keep on happening to us?

A prophecy that misread could have been -- Yoda; July 28, 2006 2:09 AM
Anonymous said...: the real poverty is of the mind. and we have as much squalor of the mind in the west as anywhere else on earth.

How very true.....the 'West' of today has nothing to do with the 'West' of 50+ years ago.

I'll tell you guy's this much....I would prefer a femeiin woman with a scarf around her head....then the silicon tited, mini-skirted, freaks that pass off as 'western' women today.

If the 'West' is all that...then be gone with it.

Everybody here should read "The death of the West" and "Where to now Western Man"....to get a clearer picture of what we have become.....

today 'The West' = consumerism...plain and simple.; July 28, 2006 10:58 AM
Anonymous said...: I miss Borkafatty and Skytrekker. These are my 2 favorite liberals. I think they might have gone off and married each other.; July 28, 2006 11:59 AM
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Bankrate.com
Marketing real estate on the Web
Thursday July 27, 6:00 am ET
Marilyn Bowden

These days, anyone in the market for a new home or a beachfront condo can get a better idea of what's available by browsing the Internet instead of the Sunday paper. According to the National Association of Realtors, there are now some half-million Web sites in cyberspace hawking dream homes.

The Internet has been an important selling tool for the real-estate industry, for nearly a decade. But during the recent residential boom, some have taken it to a new level, using the Web as the primary marketing tool to snare buyers for preconstruction projects which exist only in the developer's imagination. For this class of sellers, the Web has replaced the sales center; the virtual tour has nosed out the model unit.

Consumers need to exercise caution, experts say, before leaping into an investment in a property that, as the market softens and some projects inevitably fall by the wayside, might never be anything more than a computer-generated fantasy.

ADVERTISEMENT

The rise of virtual marketing
"Historically, the sales office would open before there was a project," says Mark Zilbert of South Florida's Zilbert Realty Group, which specializes in Internet sales. "But with the emergence of the speculator market, which really drove preconstruction sales, we entered the era of the instant sellout. By the time the sales office was built, there was nothing left to sell."

While developers were once leery of Internet listings, Zilbert says, broader outreach at lower cost has converted many to the gospel of virtual marketing.

"When they have a project to launch," he says, "if they make an upfront investment in putting electronic e-mail together, the lure of the project gets a lot more play than it would have three or four years ago, when preconstruction was still sold primarily through advertising and person-to-person contact. We can e-mail tens of thousands of users, and the cost is minimal compared to direct mail."

An attractive, well-designed Web site is now a must for large projects, says Liam Sullivan, spokesperson for Cotton & Co., one of the country's largest real estate marketing firms. The company currently has more than 60 Web sites up and running for real estate projects all over the U.S. and the Caribbean. Examples include Live Lucaya in the Bahamas, Wight Canyon near Lake Geneva, Wis., Grey Oaks Country Club in Naples, Fla., and Grande Dunes in Myrtle Beach, S.C.

"It's a tool that people have come to expect," Sullivan says. "People want to shop from their living rooms. Eventually they might visit the project site, but some of them buy just off the Web."

Sullivan says virtual tours using sophisticated technology can convey a much better idea of what a project will look like than a visit to a construction site.

"Some projects may be years away from completion," he says. "There's no other way to get an accurate sense of what it's going to look like when all phases are complete. With technology, we can even take the dimensions of the golf course and virtually re-create it."

An integrated approach
All this doesn't mean that all developers are ready to forsake tried-and-true methods. Many prefer an integrated approach.

"Every development needs a great Web site because it makes a great statement about the project," says Pamela Liebman, CEO of The Corcoran Group, a New York City-based residential developer and marketer with more than 30 years of experience in the U.S. and offshore markets. Interactive Web sites, she says, also make possible a dialogue between a developer and potential buyers, who can register a wish for bigger units or more greenery.

"We have had success in the past with no sales office, just relying on Internet advertising," Liebman says. "We sold out over 100 units in one project that way. But that's quite unusual. People want to touch and feel what they're going to buy. While we use the Internet to expose our product, we rarely consummate a sale that way. So we're not doing away with bricks and mortar."

Jim Cohen, vice president of sales at Turnberry Associates, which builds high-rises in Las Vegas, Virginia and Florida, says the sales office remains a vital selling tool.

"We go all out on our sales offices, because they're going to be there for a long time," he says. "We're not looking to sell out the project in a day."

No matter how quickly a project "sells out," a sale isn't really a sale until the unit is delivered and the contract closed, says Edgardo Defortuna, president of Fortune International, a Miami-based real estate and development firm that has marketed more than 100 new properties across South Florida.

"Even if we are mostly sold out, we still build a sales office and models," he says. "There has to be something to keep the buyer excited during the two or three years the project may be under construction."

Another thing the Internet will never be able to replace, Defortuna says, is the relationship between seller and buyer.

"There is no substitute for personal contact," he says. "End users especially need to know who the developer is and have a relationship with the salesperson."

The industry online
Industry statistics make it clear that the real-estate profession is not in danger of losing ground to Internet sales.

"Bill Gates predicted in 1995 that because of the Internet, our membership would drop," says National Association of Realtors spokesman Walter Molony. "Then we had 720,000 members. Today we are at 1.3 million. So that prediction has not panned out."

Citing a recent survey of 135,000 home buyers by his organization, Molony says that though 77 percent used the Internet to search for properties, 81 percent used an agent to consummate the sale. Back in '95 when Gates made his forecast, only 2 percent of home buyers shopped by computer.

"The Internet is the norm today," Molony says. "About 95 percent of all listings are available online, and consumers are going to go where the listings are. But people still want a Realtor to explain the contract and handle the paperwork."

Statisticians for The National Association of Realtors deal only with resale properties, which are documented on multiple listing services. Tracking the preconstruction market is more difficult because there hasn't been any coordinated catalog of what's available at what price -- at least until recently. Dean Isenberg, a Florida Realtor and entrepreneur, has introduced sell-your-preconstruction.com, a nationwide listing service he hopes will become "the ebay of preconstruction properties."

Real-estate professionals with hundreds of units to sell can upload floor plans, photos or renderings to the site, he says -- and avoid paying cooperating broker commissions by reaching potential buyers directly.

For a real-estate professional representing a buyer, says Isenberg, the site provides an easy reference to all pre-construction properties available in the area a client is interested in.

Let the buyer beware
Seasoned brokers agree that Internet usage is probably higher among investors, who drive the preconstruction market. They say anyone buying a product that doesn't yet exist needs to be careful.

"It's relatively easy to sell preconstruction over the Internet," says The Corcoran Group's Liebman. "People think they're getting a bargain, and getting it easily. But in exchange, they have to go by the word of the developer and the offering document, without actually seeing what they're getting."

Internet buyers, she says, "need to read those offering documents very carefully, and have an attorney read them as well."

Recent changes in the market should also raise red flags for would-be investors. As construction costs continue to go through the roof, many condo developers are rethinking projects not already under way.

"I believe that any modestly priced project that has not yet started construction runs a very high risk of not being built at all, because the cost of construction is soaring," Zilbert says. "So my advice to anyone looking to buy preconstruction is, if there is no visible evidence that the project has started, be very wary -- especially if the developer is unknown and has no track record."

To get an honest evaluation in such cases, he suggests working with independent agents rather than the developers' sales team.

Although resale prices are holding steady in most markets, condos are not appreciating at the rate they did even a year ago. Many speculative investors who bought units at preconstruction prices in the hope of flipping them once the project is finished will find that increased costs for auxiliary expenses such as insurance, taxes and condo fees have devoured their anticipated profits, Zilbert says. And because rental rates have not kept pace with appreciation, renting their units will not cover the cost of ownership. Many will need to sell their units almost immediately.

Speculative investors have virtually disappeared from the condo market, says Defortuna -- a sign that the boom days of recent years are giving way to more normal times, with more moderate appreciation.

Flipping properties?
For those would-be flippers left in the lurch, Zilbert has created a customized form of Internet marketing -- a Web site called www.condoflip.com.

"Someone who paid $500 a square foot for a unit can put it on the market for $700," he says. "There's another option for the buyer who just wants to unload an apartment and step away. They can find a replacement buyer at a slightly higher price, so they can cover the broker commission and get their original investment back."

For the flipper in serious distress, Zilbert says, there's also "a severe panic button that says 'I can't close, I am desperate, and I need to get out.' In that case, the seller agrees to give up half their deposit -- usually 20 percent of the contract price."

Zilbert's innovative Condoflip.com illustrates the Internet's often-remarked ability to respond quickly to changing conditions. There's no question that the Internet's impact on the real estate market is here to stay. For buyers who take a few basic precautions, the advantages include a much broader selection to choose from and virtual previews of the neighborhood.

"The days of big billboards and a guy in a blue blazer who walks you around the model home are gone," says Cotton & Co.'s Sullivan.

"Certainly," says Fortune's Defortuna, "electronic tools are very effective as a support for more traditional marketing methods. But they can never replace them."; July 28, 2006 1:08 PM
Anonymous said...: True Story;

Dunkin Donuts here is staffed by 100% all Middle Eastern Men and Einsteins is a Jewish name.

I just went out for coffee to Einsteins and the line was out the door, so I went to Dunkin Donuts, and it was empty.

Thought of you guys.; July 28, 2006 2:48 PM
Anonymous said...: WTF mates?

Developers to forge ahead with Orlando condo project

Jack Snyder | Orlando Sentinel Staff Writer
Posted July 28, 2006

Braving a cooling real estate market and volatile construction costs, developers of the 24-story Monarch condominium tower in downtown Orlando said Thursday they will launch sales in September with an eye toward starting construction as quickly as possible.

"The faster we can stick a shovel in the ground, the better off we'll be," said David Reed, president of the Reed Cos. of Altamonte Springs and a partner in the project.

The Monarch would rise from a site on Liberty Avenue between Jackson and South streets. A downtown exit ramp for the State Road 408 expressway connects to South Street almost directly across from the tower site.

The developers bought the property last year and cleared away a church there in November.

Since then, Reed said, the partners have been analyzing construction costs and the state of the local condo market, which is showing signs of easing from the past year's torrid sales pace.

"We'll be looking for 15 percent down payments and hard contracts" from buyers, Reed said.

The developers are also getting firm bids from contractors for the tower's construction. "Costs have been rising, but we see some stabilization," he said.

If the sales campaign is successful, Reed projects a 24-month construction schedule, with a possible opening in early 2009.

The tower's 179 condos would range in size from one-bedroom models to two-story penthouses. Prices will start in the high $300,000s but range upward to more than $2 million, Reed said.

A sales center is going up on the site now, the developer said. Coldwell Banker The Condo Store will handle marketing and sales.

The development company, Jaymor-Reed Development Inc., includes Reed as well as William Myers and Fab Lucchese, both of the Jaymor Group, a Canadian real estate company.

Reed said he connected with Myers and Lucchese in 1999 when they did the 250-unit second phase of Golf Terrace Apartments in Winter Springs. Since then, the three have been partners in student-housing developments in Orlando, Tampa, Tallahassee and Raleigh, N.C., and have built a luxury condo high-rise on Hutchinson Island in South Florida.

During the frenzied real estate market of recent years, 29 condo towers with a combined 7,000 to 8,000 units have been announced for locations in downtown Orlando. Most of the projects have been postponed, however, because of the softening market and because of fast-rising construction costs.; July 28, 2006 3:23 PM
Jip said...: To answer the orignal question, it's underway. Some owners are pissed about their neighbors cutting prices:

Ashburn VA

>>Ashburn, Va.: I'm so mad at my neighbor. I bought my new home here in Ashburn last summer and plan to sell it next year (after holding two years to avoid taxes) to make a nice return on my investment. The problem is my neighbor is trying to sell his house (very similar to mine) right now and he keeps lowering his asking price. Each time he lowers his price, I see my potential profits next year getting squashed. Doesn't he realize he's hurting the comps for all of his neighbors by doing this? I don't think he is acting very "neighborly" by doing this. I want to say something to him and tell him he should stop putting his interests ahead of his neighbors. Its people like him who are ruining the market for the rest of us. If he would just refuse to lower his price, we could maintain our comps and everyone would benefit. What can I do to stop him?

Kirstin Downey: Wow. Interesting question. There's nothing you can do. It's his house, of course. It's frustrating, to be sure. One word of advice: Don't resort to violence.

Seriously, he may just be desperate to sell. Perhaps he has an adjustable rate mortgage that is rising, or maybe an option ARM that is resetting to a much higher monthly payment. Maybe he's getting a divorce or has lost his job and doesn't want to talk about it. Or maybe he wants to move to Tahiti. (I do sometimes, don't you?)

I hear from many, many buyers and sellers each month, and many sellers are finding the only way to sell a home amid this growing inventory is to cut the price. Perhaps last year's prices were just illusory after all.<<; July 28, 2006 4:51 PM
Anonymous said...: mosiach
Take your mystical beliefs from your ancient text and keep it to yourself.
mmmmmmmkay?; July 28, 2006 5:19 PM
Anonymous said...: "The athiest or agnostic have butchered far more in history than religion ever did."

“Religion is an insult to human dignity. With or without it, you'd have good people doing good things and evil people doing bad things, but for good people to do bad things, it takes religion.”

Steven Weinberg (1979 Nobel Prize in Physics); July 28, 2006 9:32 PM
Anonymous said...: If Steven Weinberg said it, then it must be correct. After all, who would know more about religion than a physicist?; July 28, 2006 9:36 PM
Anonymous said...: Democrats and Republicans are equally revolting and self-serving. And you're right, Bush is an idiot. So is Gore. So is Kerry. I wouldn't vote for any of them.

Unfortunately, most people can only think in terms of THEM vs. US, left vs. right, up vs. down, rich vs. poor, etc. They choose a side and stick with it, never budging or considering for one instant that they may be mistaken about anything.

All humans are born with the need to be right, even when they're wrong, and you can never convince them of anything that conflicts with their own experiences or indoctrination. Beliefs are changed from the inside out, and this simply doesn't happen very often. Witness the middle aged hippies teaching in colleges and universities, spouting the same rubbish they were spouting in the '70s. For the most part, humans are monumentally stuck, making fools of themselves till their departure from the planet.; July 28, 2006 9:37 PM
Anonymous said...: boomer/bubblesitter/etc said...

WTF mates?

Hey, Guys, this is a House Bubble site and I just posted an article that says there are new condos being built! I though you guys would have a field day.......?; July 28, 2006 9:50 PM
Anonymous said...: "The Christian god can easily be pictured as virtually the same god as the many ancient gods of past civilizations. The Christian god is a three headed monster; cruel, vengeful and capricious. If one wishes to know more of this raging, three headed beast-like god, one only needs to look at the caliber of people who say they serve him. They are always of two classes: fools and hypocrites."

Thomas Jefferson; July 28, 2006 9:52 PM
Anonymous said...: Thomas Jefferson was a Hitler Youth member; July 28, 2006 9:53 PM
Anonymous said...: Anonymous said...

'"The Christian god can easily be pictured as virtually the same god as the many ancient gods of past civilizations. The Christian god is a three headed monster; cruel, vengeful and capricious. If one wishes to know more of this raging, three headed beast-like god, one only needs to look at the caliber of people who say they serve him. They are always of two classes: fools and hypocrites."'

"Thomas Jefferson"

This, of course, isn't universally true (think of Mother Teresa), but it is true of many. I'm not sure that the religion makes a difference. I think it's the person who professes it. There are horrible Buddhists and Hindus, and wonderful Quakers and Roman Catholics. But, Christianity is is nasty religion, as are Judaism and Islam. The most advanced religions, Taoism, Buddhism, Bon, and Quakerism (Christian) are perhaps too difficult in their simplicy for the general public to comprehend.; July 28, 2006 11:03 PM
Anonymous said...: "You guys are either completely ignorant about what Christianity actually is, or you're not using your brains. Or both."

How on earth could one live in the USA and not know exactly what christianity is !? Without the backing of the religious right this hideous monster they call president would not have had
the power to implement his religiously manic ideology.; July 29, 2006 12:15 AM
Anonymous said...: "Yeah, just think how cruel, vengeful and capricious it is to come down to earth in human form and sacrifice your earthly life as you take on the weight of humanity's sins, and simply say, "Believe in this, and your sins are forgiven.""

Believing in something that is just that, a belief, is not going to change reality
significantly. Why not just stop BELIEVING and try to actually add to human KNOWLEDGE about REALITY as we know it.; July 29, 2006 12:18 AM
Anonymous said...: These Christian bloggers are idiotic. Go to these sites, study them, and then come back with your superstitious hooey:

http://christianism.com

http://tinyurl.com/gqz7z

Quoting benign lines from the New Testament doesn't make a whit of difference, considering 90% of the New Testament is hateful, vengeful, and absurd. Jesus didn't die for anybody, because he never existed in the first place.

Here's a parody site that has tons of Christian info Christians in general don't know anything about.

http://landoverbaptist.org

Try taking the sex tests and you might discover some interesting biblical texts you weren't aware of.

Remember the story of Jesus taking the demons out of a possessed man and sending them into a herd of pigs who then threw themselves off a cliff? You call this nice? How about the story of him cursing a fig tree because he (supposedly god) didn't know fig trees didn't have fruit at that time of the year. Is this nice? How about him describing non-Jews as "dogs?"

The whole Christian story is make-believe, plagiarized from pagan religions, but then corrupted with vicious nonsense to which the pagan religions in question didn't subscribe.

Buddhism, one of the religions it plagiarizes (the parable of the mustard seend is copied almost verbatim from Buddhist scripture), says we should show compassion toward all sentient beings, not just humans. Hinduism, another religion it plagiarizes, says the same thing. However, Christianity does come close to Mithraism, the religion its plagiarizes most.

Mithraism, the official religion of Rome at the time the mythical Jesus was supposed to have lived, was its inspiration. It had a savior. Mithra, born of a virgin Mariam on the winter solstice in a manger or cave. Three wise men brought him gifts. As an adult, he was sacrificed for the sins of the world, and resurrected at the spring equinox. His religion included baptism, holy communion, and holy orders, the works. The official seat of his religion was Vatican Hill, and its leader was called Petra, who wore a headress called a mitre (after Mithra). Does any of this sound familiar?

It's one thing to live in Lalaland because it makes YOU happy, but it's another to use this nonsense as an excuse for behaving like asses.

Mother Teresa never thumped a bible or condemned anybody for his or her beliefs, yet she was absolutely pro-life, a position supported by Buddhism, Hinduism, and Bon. However, she was also kind to animals, something most Christians are not.

Again, it's not the religion, it's the follower who we should be looking at. And a kind person, one hopes, will gravitate toward a belief-system that it equally kind.; July 29, 2006 12:24 AM
Anonymous said...: Whatever your taking, Cut the dose!; August 06, 2006 9:42 PM
Anonymous said...: No Housing Bubble? Sold my home in san diego in late 2003, for 375k. Today, almost 600k! My wife and i(mid 40's) both do well, no kids, no debt.....and we can't afford anything reasonable. Bad neighborhoods, no yard. Never thought i would see the day when the american dream of home ownership meant being able to walk from rooftop to rooftop! Coffee for 4$, gas $3.75, my steak cost me $23 or more.....No bubble? Just look around! Not to mention "creative financing", or increasing supply, or is it just less demand? How about just living within your means! Live within your means, before your means dictate how you live!!!; August 06, 2006 9:59 PM
Anonymous said...: Listen Up! The nation of Israel is in a fight for her very existence! Look on a map,it's a David and Goliath scenario. She is surrounded by those calling for her total destruction! And all i hear is Israel sould restrain herself! The fact that those other countries still survive is Proof of Israel's restraint!!! Israel has the Right to defend herself! The God of Isreal will be made known to ALL! 1TIM. 1:15; August 06, 2006 10:10 PM

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