HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day

July 14, 2006

HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day

Who in their right mind would be out shopping for a home today?

38 comments:

Anonymous said...: The antipod to recent trends perhaps:
A small, energy-efficient, fully paid, cheap to own and mantain little house below 900 square-feet, located so it remains functional also in times of upcoming oil-crises. But I would rather go for renting for the time being until prices drops further, of course.; July 14, 2006 11:04 AM
Anonymous said...: people who watch fox news and don't read the paper, that's who

OJ simpson jurors, that's who

shoe shine guys, that's who; July 14, 2006 11:13 AM
Anonymous said...: Cute little mouse - but how many late stage house-buyers are as foreseeing as this little guy. After all; he wears that helmet for good protection. If hes too pushy and incautious on the other hand, that thing gonna snap him by the neck instead.; July 14, 2006 11:42 AM
Anonymous said...: I'm supposed to close on a house in 2 weeks. $290,000 for a 3 bedroom house on half an acre in atlanta with a full basement. Prices still seem pretty reasonable here compared to what is going on in other parts of the country. I'm keeping my fingers crossed...; July 14, 2006 12:28 PM
Anonymous said...: The people who are buying my girlfeiend's house in Riverside Ca. 2 bdr 1 bth 1950 1,100 sq ft
369K
I don't know where these people came from, But they've got 75K to put down.
When the crash is over, this house will sell for about 140K.; July 14, 2006 12:29 PM
Anonymous said...: "I'm supposed to close on a house in 2 weeks."

Listen to what this guy has to say first at www.financialsense.com/Experts/2006/Brussee.html; July 14, 2006 12:42 PM
Anonymous said...: For Atlanta, and other less bubbley (not sure if that's a word) parts of the SE, I'd say you're fine. Atlanta is currently one of the better housing markets in the country with reasonable housing and job markets. And in Atlanta it's all CNN, no Fox News! Though I would say that with the sprawl in Atlanta coupled with spiking oil, the smart money has to be inside the perimeter. Just my $.02.; July 14, 2006 12:56 PM
Anonymous said...: Before cheap energy and aircondition all southern rainpoor state cities was rather small and provinsial. There was probably an uncompromising pop-growth prohibitive reason for that, I suspect.; July 14, 2006 1:40 PM
Anonymous said...: Keith,

Checking in from Central Ohio. M/I Homes is one of the big builders here. This past week they reported sales in CO are down 35%(!) and down 50%(!!!) in Florida! They, and other builders, have been having the $50k off sales the last few months. There's a LOT of inventory on the market here. Homes under $300k are selling ok, but anything over that is VERY slow going. Too bad for me - I need to put my place on the market next month for job reasons, and I'm a bit nervous.

FYI - I went to Home Depot last Sat morning, and the lot was packed.; July 14, 2006 1:55 PM
Anonymous said...: Comparing Atlanta to other areas and concluding it's not as over-priced - LMAOL

If you're a fan of CNN, the Communist News Network, then buy a home in Atlanta and several SFR's with zero down for rental income.

And while you're at it, sign up for that new internet news service that just signed Dan Rather, so you can "really" be informed - Yeah, that's the ticket.; July 14, 2006 2:01 PM
Anonymous said...: Everyone should buy since home prices never go down since they don't make land any more...

CA Realtor; July 14, 2006 2:24 PM
Anonymous said...: The only reason you guys are on this forum because you missed the boat ... honestly, you want to see the prices dropped by 50% .. fyi .. home prices keep up with inflation ... I have a bridge called Brooklyn brdige to sell .. if you believe the inflation has been 2% - 3% .... Just make a note how much you are paying for Gas, for electricty, cable etc .. then we will talk about inflation .. the inflation the FED sees is a joke ... let us first discuss what the inflation has been between 5/2000-5/2006 .. then we know what the home prices should be ...; July 14, 2006 3:02 PM
Anonymous said...: RE: Atlanta

The market in Atlanta for mid-priced houses never went anywhere because dumb-ass developers overbuilt by 10%-25% in most areas. A house we sold in '02 (Gwinnett county) is back on the market now for $5K less than when we closed!; July 14, 2006 3:36 PM
Anonymous said...: "if California catches cold, the USA gets ebola". . .

I know that to be true, becasue for the past 20 years, many friends, co-workers, and relatives have "cashed out" of California and moved to: Arizona, Nevada, Missouri, Oregon, Idaho, and yes even Ohio!!. . .Anyone on this blog from Oregon knows how they hate "equity bandits" (or used to) who made housing there unaffordable for locals. . .ditto Nevada and Arizona. Where is the money going to come from when California people don't move?????; July 14, 2006 4:03 PM
Anonymous said...: RE: Atlanta
RE: Ebola

Overbuilding in exurbs like Gwinnett, Jackson, & Barrow (even Oconee) counties is another reason why the "smart money" is inside the perimeter. No one wants to sit in traffic for 1 hr+ (if you leave by 5:30AM) to get to work.

As for the "Ebola" the south is going to catch when California catches a cold, I'm not sure why the south (minus the coasts and S. FL) is that much more susceptible to a RE crash.

I definitely feel more comfortable living in an area where the average person owning can actually afford that home, pays fair taxes, and is the beneficiary of new industrial investment. This affordability (or lack there of) is what has tanked most RE markets in the past (soCal early 90s?).

Those folks making $75K/yr living in a $600K studio in San Diego are the ones that will feel the true PAIN....not the person making $75K in ATL living in a $350K house in midtown.

Also, I would be careful lumping the south and midwest together. The economies of the Carolinas are very different than those of Michigan and Ohio, though I'm sure we're all just flyover states for those in soCal. :); July 14, 2006 4:12 PM
Anonymous said...: i am always looking, but just not buying now. i feel sorry for people that are buying here in phoenix. they're going to be screwed when the Y-O-Y price drops start really kicking for the rest of this year. if i were buying, i would offer based on 2004 prices and ignore 2005 insanity.

my suggestion to potential buyers, "rent" for now.; July 14, 2006 4:20 PM
Anonymous said...: with interest rates headed through the roof, you would have to be a fool not to jump on some of the great deals out there, right now.; July 14, 2006 4:44 PM
Anonymous said...: women....I'm sorry that's sexist, but trying to explain inventory and ARM'S and the wealth effect to my wife is like trying to teach a cat calculus. She just wants a house no matter what.; July 14, 2006 5:45 PM
Anonymous said...: Well, in my neck of the woods we did not have a giant housing appreciation. We also don't have a giant housing bust. I bought my house 3 years ago for almost the same amount as the house accross the street was purchased last week. My 2/1 house with large double lot was less then 80K - good enough for me. And yes, I would absolutely bought a house right now. Why is the assumption that everyone must live in Phoenix? As for jobs - in my company at least third of employees work at home. That's called telecommuting, people. As long as you have a cable internet access, you can work from the cabin in Alaska, if you wish.; July 14, 2006 7:00 PM
Anonymous said...: ...That's called telecommuting, people. As long as you have a cable internet access, you can work from the cabin in Alaska, if you wish.

Yep, i'm in the eviable position of being able to telecommute, being a Graphic Designer/Animator/Rigger.
However, the husband works for an international company in Santa Monica, and as he is the one who makes the steady-readies, we have to buy according to where he can easily commute from.

Seeing as LA's Westside has possibly the most ridiculously priced houses anywhere in the West Coast, we're staying put in our affordable rental until this time next year, at the very earliest. Even here, prices are slowing already.

Who knows?
We to may be able to buy a 700sqft 2b/1b for less than 750K in 2007....; July 14, 2006 7:11 PM
Anonymous said...: To that people that think that the bubble is regional and not national (e.g. its not happening in Atlanta, were different)...I am in Southern California and I am seeing prices drop currently. Results of extremely high inventory, higher rates and slow/no sales. Fact: California makes up 25% of the national housing market. If we take lets say a 20% dive, the rest of the nation will definitely catch the wave. Good luck to all in the coming years.; July 14, 2006 7:34 PM
Anonymous said...: "...then we know what the home prices should be ..."

Are you on crack or did you recently quit your job to be a RE flipper? Do not worry, Taco Bell will hire you back even with BK on your record.; July 14, 2006 8:28 PM
Anonymous said...: RE buyer will be a RE hater in a year or two. Higher interest on a lower price will make the total payment less. And they may lower rates in the future so a REFI could make the cost even less.

I think RE buyer is a RE fool.; July 14, 2006 8:31 PM
Anonymous said...: RE SoCal:

If you think a housing crash in Salinas, CA is going to affect my home in GA, you must be nuts. Barring a NATIONAL rash of foreclosures caused by shady lending, I have no problem saying "its not happening in Atlanta, we're different".

If we're speaking strictly in terms of affordability and valuation, then markets are absolutely regional.

Just because prices triple in 5 years in soCal, and crash 5 years later, does not mean that a house in Houston, which may have actually depreciated in real terms over the past 5 years, should be subject to the same crash that a house soCal is.

Unless there is a national banking crisis caused by huge numbers of bankruptcies, it doesn't really matter whether California represents 25% or 99% of the nations housing market. A high inventory in one area is simply the result of basic supply & demand. If I can move to NV, pay less taxes and buy twice the house, why shouldn't I?

Who cares about the housing inventory in California. If California takes a 20% dive, their 5 year appreciation would still be well above most of the country. The wave, which you speak of, is nothing more than basic supply and demand economics.

The larger consequence of a housing bust (if in 99% of the nation) will be that consumer spending will nose dive...wealth effect. This WOULD result in a wave, though I'm certainly not convinced that 99% of the nation's housing markets are subject to a nose dive.; July 14, 2006 8:44 PM
Anonymous said...: makes sense to shop for a home if you're downsizing; July 14, 2006 9:05 PM
Anonymous said...: Downsize: How about this idea? Sell, protect your profits from inflation, rent, and buy later. Maybe buy land and get the right house built on it when materials and labor cost less.

If there is no affordable land around where you live maybe you live in the wrong area.; July 14, 2006 9:31 PM
Anonymous said...: I want to buy a house and stop renting. I look through the MLS but haven't been actively looking to buy recently. When do you think it is safe to start throwing in some offers?

jj; July 14, 2006 9:45 PM
Joe said...: That's called telecommuting, people.

I'm a software engineer living in Seattle (although I'd rather live somewhere else). I looked into telecommuting because "that's the future" and my occupation is supposedly a good fit. After researching this for a while I found the telecommuting jobs pay 25-50% less than the normal, sit-through-2-hour-per-day traffic ones.

Still a ways to go before I can escape slaving and commuting in a bubble area...; July 14, 2006 10:25 PM
Anonymous said...: I'm a software engineer living in Seattle (although I'd rather live somewhere else). I looked into telecommuting because "that's the future" and my occupation is supposedly a good fit. After researching this for a while I found the telecommuting jobs pay 25-50% less than the normal, sit-through-2-hour-per-day traffic ones.

The reason for that is lack of trust for new employee. All coworkers that tellecomute in my company did not have a pay cut, but they worked for a year or so in the office, where management saw how they work and if they can work independently or slack off all day. Besides, when you take in the account price of gas, cost of maintaining large professional wardrobe and eating out for lunch - 25% less may not seem like that big of a cut.; July 15, 2006 2:58 PM
Joe said...: Sasha - Thanks for the comments. I think it's the process itself that requires widespread adoption. If we have outsourcing, then telecommuting can't be far behind. It's gonna take a large company to set the trend (a techie example: Google Maps. AJAX is a technology has been around for 5-6 years, but it didn't become a widely adopted technology until a year or so ago when Google set the trend.)

The real estate landscape itself would change. No more would prices be so much based on proximity (to biz centers), but based on amenities.; July 15, 2006 6:22 PM
Anonymous said...: K I S S (Keep It Simple Stupid !)

The Basic Idea for a CAR was simple, affordable transportation using 4 rubber wheels, a steering wheel and a tiny gasoline engine to get a small family from one place to another...without the family horse.

The Basic Idea for a HOUSE was simple, affordable SHELTER from the Elements with a a few creature comforts for the Family without living in a total frontier style SHACK.

Wow!..Between the Car Salesmen, Real Estate Agents Plus a little Family Credit Spending to "keep up with the Jone's" next door, America is in HOCK up to it's eyeballs like the guy in the TV Commercial says.

The DEBT of Housing, Transportation and the REAL Cost of Living in 2006-08 will have Lots of American's WISHING that they practiced a little "Keep It Simple Stupid!" in their Spending Habits.; July 15, 2006 6:33 PM
Anonymous said...: There has been and still is an enormous gap between what the sellers and their real estate agents believe the next "Greater Fool" can pay than and what that Fool can REALLY afford !; July 15, 2006 6:49 PM
Anonymous said...: Anyone have info on utah,saltlake its seem that the prices have only continued to go up.; July 15, 2006 10:11 PM
Anonymous said...: Senx said...

"Might be jobs in Atlanta but other than that it is a big shit hole."

Say what? Atlanta is a gorgeous city and always has been. Why do you think a million people have moved there? Because it's a dump? It has been a center of the arts and education for more than a century, and has some of the most beautiful homes, buildings, and landscapes in the country.

The women of Atlanta are better dressed and turned out than women in London, Paris, or Rome. They also do better make-up, and have better manners.

There is more culture and elegance in one square mile of Atlanta than in the entire cities of Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Dallas, Houston, or Phoenix. Atlanta is infinitely more beautiful than New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Miami, Tampa, or a dozen other cities that claim to be modern and sophisticated. It has spectacular parks, excellent grade schools, wonderful museums, great colleges and universities, and to top it all off, a really interesting history.

Since I was born there, I'm biased, but I haven't found any cities in the U.S. nicer than Atlanta, and I've looked and looked. Yes, it's too crowded now, and fewer and fewer people have three acre yards, which used to be normal, but it's still a wonderful, fun place, and not at all as Senx described.; July 16, 2006 3:40 AM
Anonymous said...: "There is more culture and elegance in one square mile of Atlanta than in the entire cities of Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Dallas, Houston, or Phoenix. Atlanta is infinitely more beautiful than New York, Boston, Philadelphia, Miami, Tampa, or a dozen other cities that claim to be modern and sophisticated. It has spectacular parks, excellent grade schools, wonderful museums, great colleges and universities, and to top it all off, a really interesting history."

I lived in Atlanta from '73 to '02. Over those years it devolved into a sterile convention town run by black good-ol' boys (as opposed to the white good-ol' boys). The public schools are third-world, and the museums are a joke when compared to cities like Denver, NYC, or Chicago.

It does have a couple of good colleges, but so what, dozens of other cities have good schools too. Women? don't make me laugh, most eat too many butter biscuits and can barley walk in high heels. Stupid may be charming to some, but it's not an aphrodisiac in my book. History? Oh please - the damn town started as a podunk railroad station after the Civil War (it was called Terminus for many years) so its "history" dates back all of 150 years. All of Atlanta's "peach tree" nonsense the tourists love is just a bastardization of the indian name for the main North-South trail - they called it "pitch" tree.

My fondest memory of Atlanta was watching it recede in the rear view mirror.; July 16, 2006 3:28 PM
Anonymous said...: I live in Boston, earn $99K/yr, and had bought a retirement home in Nova Scotia for ~$100K before 2002. It's almost paid off and I rent in my metro area. My fixed mortgage is ~$500/mth and my rent near Boston is ~$1100/mth, totaling $1600/mth of fixed expenses and my take home pay is $4800/mth (after all the different withholdings) so I get quite a bit back at tax time and at the same time, I'm not worried about having a place to live after retirement and even if Canada doesn't grant me citizenship, I just have to come back to Maine for a day every 6 months.

I see no purpose to owning RE, esp as an "inflation" hedge or any of that other faux finance crap, this is simply a repeat of the whole '87-'90 RE run up followed by a crash but only bigger and more nasty.

I'm saving for rainy days in the future when good jobs are hard to come by.; July 20, 2006 4:09 PM
Anonymous said...: Nice idea with this site its better than most of the rubbish I come across.
»; July 22, 2006 2:27 AM
Anonymous said...: Hi Blogger, I found your blog quite informative.
I just came across your blog and wanted to
drop you a note telling you how impressed I was with it.
I give you my best wishes for your future endeavors.
If you have a moment, please visit my wozniak site.
Have a great week!; August 05, 2006 9:09 AM

HousingPANIC - The Housing Bubble Blog with an Attitude Problem, 2005 - 2008

July 14, 2006

HousingPanic Stupid Question of the Day

38 comments:

About Me

HP blogs & websites

Blog Archive