Why to real estate industrial complex members and real estate investors/flippers visit HousingPanic of all places?
July 31, 2006
HousingPanic Stupid Quesiton of the Day
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A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
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38 comments:
Simple, to find out who is not drinking their kool-aid and why.
Because we HP'rs told them to. (:
I think it's a cry for help
poor little bastards
To keep their thumb on the pulse of the public. They want to know what real people are thinking.
vs. the NAR?
Because they know we are right. They can't berbalize their housing downturn (panic) thoughts and they need help. Come to Mama.
What the stupid question of the day should be:
Why is the traffic down so much in this blog?
Could it be that Keith has pissed off too many posters (even those who agree with him), by actively rooting against the USA?
It is like the monster under the bed late at night. You heard something, but, you don't believe in monsters. You know something is there. Still, you can't go to sleep. You just have to lean over, lift up the sham and take a peek. Welcome to reality.
Hey...I don't root against the USA. But I do root against plain, simple, stupidity. Wherever it is.
I don't about other people, but I visit because this blog is entertaining and once in a while visitors post very interesting (and educational) commments. I've discovered a number of other great blogs and stories from links here. David in jax is right, it's also a way to keep pulse on what people are thinking.
Plus, with the chorus of opinion often against real estate, i can share my often contrarian opinion. I think it's much more interesting to dialogue with people who don't share the same views as you.
Why is the traffic down so much in this blog?
Is this true?
Everybody slows down and rubberneckks at accidents on the highway,we all have a morbid curiosity when disaster is close.
13 comments in 40 minutes, and you say the traffic is down?
Recognizing that this is a boom and talking about it isn't rooting against the USA.
Unless you believe the patriotic thing to do is to sit here and go 'Baaaahhhhh' whilst our pockets are turned inside out and a lot of people are turned into housing serfs.
The dotbomb demonstrated that far too many people are willing to 'invest' their money in a sock puppet. Well, that same level of 'investing' idiocy is obviously at work now under another guise. Or perhaps it's anti-investment genius at work?
But then, the great thing about the US is that it occasionally puts fools together with vast amounts of money just so we can all have a laugh seeing how they lose it!!
They visit because they have nothing else do do - they aren't selling any houses!
It is axiomatic that perception drives reality. Whether housing is over priced or under priced turns exclusively on whether people think that housing is over priced or under priced. To the extent that real estate industry insiders read and post to this blog, they are attempting to influence reality by influencing perception.
This may work up until a point, but eventually the true shapers of perception and thus reality take hold. These two shapers are greed and fear, and like the eternal battle of the sun versus the moon, fear and greed forever take turns chasing each other from the celestial dome above.
Look to the west for the sun of greed is falling.
Look to the east for the moon of fear is rising.
But do not despair for tomorrow the sun shall rise anew.
It is happening, it has happened before, and it will happen again.
Because everyone else is starting to think like us. So they have to strike at the source. Like that Bloodhound Blog guy, he had to challenge the readers here because he knew our sway was increasing over public opinion. Realtors jobs are on the line on this one!
Business is down and they wonder if the bubble might actually be, well, a bubble. Then they stumble on over here and they find some of us gloating, poking fun, and they despise it. Being right won't make you any friends with that bunch. Eat dirt, slimeballs!
Maybe they like to watch the flying monkeys play. A happy monkey is a FLYING MONKEY. This flying monkey was doing loops and aileron rolls and wing overs yesterday over his paid-for private airstrip.
The BubbleBloggers should take back the "Flying Monkeys" name :)
They've thrown a party, everyone came and drank their booze and now they're drunk and lonely. The house has vomit on the carpet, the fug of smoke, empties everywhere and the parents will be home tomorrow.
So buy 'em a drink, pat 'em the back and tell 'em it'll all be OK.
To understand where they went wrong
"What the stupid question of the day should be:
Why is the traffic down so much in this blog?"
http://www.sitemeter.com/?a=stats&s=s20housingpanic&r=36
every month sets an all time record for visits and page views
ah, the truth, it shall set ye free
OSMAN is a class act. I have been reading this blog for quite some time and I remember how in the beginning OSMAN was villified for his contrarian stance. Yet he has never resorted to petty name calling that has been the hallmark of so many other Realtors who post on this site. Furthermore, he has offered us an opposing viewpoint that is based on fact - not conjecture. I have a friend who lives in Boulder and in the event that he ever decides to sell his place I will gladly refer him to OSMAN.
Because we were telling the truth a long time ago - just like internet stocks - remember Abby Cohen and the CNBC talking heads in early 2000 "AVERAGE DOWN" they said, "this is a great time to buy Dr. Koop.com at 20% off and Pets.com at 20% off" BUY BUY BUY. . .NO ONE except a few early bloggers and short sellers were saying, "your internet stocks are worthless" SELL now!! . . .
Sometimes people need that wide, cold, sting of the strap of reality across their backs. I can think of no better group of people to come to HP and take their punishment.
man, Osman's redemption is now complete.
I think all HP'ers in Colorado should look up the Os if you need representation. Maybe he'll give you the standard HP discount...
Osman says-Plus, with the chorus of opinion often against real estate, i can share my often contrarian opinion.
That's right, osman. You are a true contrarian.
But I am not sure how advising people to buy $600k condos in Boulder at the top of not only a housing bubble but a major US debt tsunami qualifies you for an honorary PhD.
Really, os, just how much higher can RE prices in Colorado go? What are you telling your clients when they ask you about expected appreciation? Is that 300k apartment in N. Boulder going to go to $600k?? Really, what do you tell them?
stage 3: anger. lashing out at the messenger. fear that we are starting to have an impact. I think we should welcome them here, because their arguments are so self-evidently foolish and specious that they will only help us change more minds, and that will hasten the fall, which in turn will get us back to a foundation for real economic growth.
"Why is the traffic down so much in this blog?"
Doesn't seem to be, by the number of posts. If it is, might have something to do with summer vacations. In my 10 months of experience cruising this blog, when Keith pisses people off (which he does a lot, I agree with you there) he gets an uptick in traffic, not the reverse.
Congrats on your 100K+ visits, Keith.
There are no stupid questions only stupid answers from real-whores and shills working for the unreal estate industry.
What do you call a realtor who does not lie. . .?
Deceased.
I tell ya, I get no respect. Business must be good. I went to my realtor this morning to talk to her about selling my house. She offered me 6% of the value of the house to get lost.
I went to my doctor the other day, you know, Dr. Vinnie Boombatz. I asked him for a second opinon. He told me I was ugly, too, and to invest my life savings in Phoenix real estate.
I tell ya, I get no respect. My wife the other day said she wanted to make love in the backseat of the car . . . with our realtor neighbor . . . while I'm drivin'!!!
I tell ya, it's rough out there. I went to my shrink to discuss my anxiety about the losses I'm experiencing with my SoCal and Phoenix real estate investments. I told him I've been thinking a lot about suicide. He told me from now on I have to pay in advance!
Man, it ain't easy out there. Money is becoming so tight that my dog's favorite bone is the one in my arm!
I get no respect, I tell ya. The other day I was so depressed about my real estate losses that I went to the tenth floor of a building and was prepared to jump out the window. They sent a rabbi up to talk to me, and he said, "On your mark . . ."
I tell ya, I don't understand women these days. Last night a girl called and said, "Come on over, no one's home." I went to the address of the newly completed house in Phoenix she gave me, and no one was home!!! Not only that, I looked in the windows and there were no walls!!!
"Whether housing is over priced or under priced turns exclusively on whether people think that housing is over priced or under priced."
And he calls himself the thinker?
http://www.bloodhoundrealty.com/BloodhoundBlog/?p=155
It is, I kid you not, and article by Greg Swann at Bloodhound entitled "How to turn $1.00 into $27,000. in eight years..."
A select quote....
"And paying ahead on your mortgage is just dumb no matter where you buy. With a 100% leveraged property, every penny of appreciation is 100% cash-on-cash profit to you. If you have any excess cash, you should be using it to buy more properties."
His advice - buy a $200K rental property with 100% financing and burn cash at a rate of $569. per month.
But it'll all be OK because appreciation of the property will give you a cash windfall of $27,000. AFTER 8 YEARS. Wow, a possible 13.5% return.
Oddly enough, there is no mention of the downside risks - like deadbeat tenants, maintenance, or the possiblity that Gregs optimistic scenario could go pear shaped.
I cannot believe any person would be advocating this risky investment behaviour in what is at the very least an uncertain market.
But I guess it's OK because Greg will be there when you buy and Greg will be there when you sell. And under Greg's scenario, RE commissions will be about $30K (at 6%) - so who really wins on this deal?
By the way,
I would guess that there are far more lurkers watching this blog and appreciating the viewpoints than are actually leaving messages.
Mr Smith wrote, ",But I am not sure how advising people to buy $600k condos in Boulder at the top of not only a housing bubble but a major US debt tsunami qualifies you for an honorary PhD.
What gives you the impression that I'm advising people to buy 600K condos? Generally, clients come to me after they've made the decision to buy or sell. Rarely they ask my opinion, but when they do, it's not always in favor of moving ahead.
Really, os, just how much higher can RE prices in Colorado go? What are you telling your clients when they ask you about expected appreciation? Is that 300k apartment in N. Boulder going to go to $600k?? Really, what do you tell them?
I tell them real estate is cyclical and we've had a long runup in housing prices, in some markets clearly a bubble. I tell them it's unlikely they'll see the appreciation of the past few years (though it was relatively mild here in Boulder) and to be conservative in their expectations. Overall, I try to advise my clients to make more informed, intelligent decisions about real estate.
Boulder isn't (and hasn't been) a speculative market for long time. A few months ago I looked at all the sales in Boulder in 2005 and found 4 fix and flips, three of which were successful. I wrote up a little analysis, posted about it on my blog, and expected to get a flood of interest. To date, I've had a handful of inquiries, mostly from other real estate agents.
As an agent, I spend much more time telling people about neighborhoods, finding homes that match their needs, helping negotiate offers, and managing transactions through closing. Mostly, I try to help buyers avoid common mistakes and protect their earnest money.
I do however frequently analyze and post about the market on my blog. If you spent some time there Mr. Smith, I think you'll find my writing relatively free of hyperbole.
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