Oil hitting an all time high again too
July 12, 2006
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A time capsule of the greatest financial mania in the history of mankind, told in real-time by regular folks and patriots. May future generations better understand the madness of crowds, and how power and money corrupt.
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29 comments:
Folks know when them Fed printing presses are running.
Keith, for crying out loud, don't rile up the fiat currency/rigged stock market crowd. Oh, never mind. It is entertaining after all.
Keith,
Any ideas how Japan's interest rate increase on Friday will effect the POG???
I bought coins at both $560 (about 3 weeks ago) and $700 (about 2 months ago) after reading a couple dozen current books and articles about economics, the housing market and the international economy. You either believe in the underlying fundamentals or you don't. If you don't believe that the U.S. is on the verge of a financial crisis (and responding by dollar devaluation), you should not buy gold. If you do believe that there is a larger problem out there, $700 will seem cheap years from now. If you choose to buy, don't look at it as an investment. If you're right about gold, you have a stash (need at least 10% of your portfolio) for a rainy day. If not, you have some coins to pass down to your kids along with a funny story about how you once thought that the world economy was going to crash. Either way, gold isn't worthless.
I agree totally. My basis is around $650 for 1 oz coins. I kick myself for not buying more when they were $610 - I was quoted $605 and went over 3 hours later to be greeted by a higher price, so I walked. Didn't get any 1oz silver coins which I also lament.
I've bought life, home, auto insurance for 25 years and never filed a claim.
Did anybody laugh at me? no.
I go out and buy many gold coins as insurance against a financial crisis and trolls show up on this blog with- {"ha ha gold dropped to $540 ha ha"} I cant figure these people out!
Gold is money. Period.
should we get long now Keith?
Let us know when you buy Keith so that we can run for the hills (would have served us well last time).
Does anyone have any opinion on the gold etf (GLD)? I managed to get lucky and buy about 20k at 58.50 when gold dropped a couple of weeks ago. I am debating whether to put some more money into it.
I was wary of coins because of various problems, such as: storage, purity, resale.... etc. I haven't seen these issues addressed in the blog.
Thank you.
I bought $25k of GLD the other day at $620 - that's my holding
all I'm gonna say is gld is a wild ride, but in my unique circumstance (paid in $, living in europe) I need a hedge against the dollar tanking, so gld, euros and cop
The trolls should be showing up anytime now!
Re: GLD comment above.
I also put 20k in FXE as a dollar hedge. Now I am weighing putting more in GLD. FXE is a great vehicle for protecting against a fall in the dollar, but I believe GLD to be the better all around investment.
I would consider selling GLD if it hits $70, unless there are obvious reasons (dollar tanking, Stock market tanking...etc) not to. Thanks Keith.
"I was wary of coins because of various problems, such as: storage, purity, resale.... etc. I haven't seen these issues addressed in the blog."
I buy gold coins instead of electronic gold in GLD. The purity is assurred because these are hard to counterfeit (as opposed to currency), storage is easy because a $600 1 oz coin is pretty compact. You can get little plastic tubes that hold 10 maple leafs (my favorite coin) and squirrel it away in lots of places. I pay cash at the local dealer and could sell for cash there also. Kitco.com lists buy and sell prices of coins, and the local dealer is pretty much in line with their prices.
Physical gold is much better in case of a total meltdown than electronic gold. At least that is how I bet. Having physical cash, in various small denominations, is also a nice thing.
I have read that there are big buyers of options that will take physical delivery, like the Hunts did. That may really run up the prices.
Iran was supposed to have bought hundreds of tons of gold last fall. Maybe they are really being smart. They talk nuke and oil and gold go up in price. They have lots of both.
I like what PRPFX has in their portfolio, but I usually stay away from mutual funds because you have to pay them regardless of whether the fund goes up or down. Most funds are just sheep. PRPFX seems to have a very low turnover (1%), and which is promising. I will take a better look at it on the Bloomberg machine.
"storage is easy because a $600 1 oz coin is pretty compact. You can get little plastic tubes that hold 10 maple leafs (my favorite coin) and squirrel it away in lots of places."
100K investment in gold could give me 160+ coins. Squirrel away? Where? At my house? What if my house is robbed or burns down? Do you insure it? Bank safety deposit boxes are also not insured. I suspect one could get insurance for the safety deposit box, but I have not looked into it.
Regards.
Gold is likely to top out in the $660-$690 range. If so, this will increase the likelihood of another crash to below $500.
Small gold stocks are tracing out a classic post-bubble reaction rally before a larger crash.
Goldbugs, beware!!!
Summer slump is OVER!
This blog is a great place to get investment advice - contrarian advise that is! Based on the title and the majority of the comments, looks like gold should be heading back down very soon....
Gold up till july 19th. Ben gives hawk on inflation speech and gold drops. Government insiders load up when its down to ~475 then gold shoots WAY up from there.
autofx, gold could fall back to $425-$475 next year or '08 and still be up 7-8%/yr. from '99-'01, satisfying gold's historic "money" store of value, tracking the growth of US money supply throughout. I was a goldbug in '99-'01 based on its relative valuation against paper assets; however, since late '05 and early '06, a classic bubble trajectory appeared, taking the price of gold and most gold stocks with it. The recent decline and reaction rally are part of a "classic" post-bubble profile, the likely result of which will be a decline to $475-$500 at some point. Yet, the impulsive nature of the asymptotic ascent of gold in the terminal phase of the bubble suggests a risk of gold falling to $400-$450 OR EVEN BELOW in a final capitulatory selling climax most likely associated with another deflation scare in response to the collapse of the housing bubble, negative real M2 growth, global recession, and decelerating money velocity. Therefore, I'm bearish on gold now with the same level of enthusiasm I was bullish in '99-'01. Gold below $475-$500 at some point will signal the risk of deeper negative real M2 and money velocity deceleration and the risk of outright deflation. We're nowhere near that point, however, with so many observers only now beginning to recognize the risk of inflation and making projections of $1000 gold, it tells me we are well along in the cycle, whereas the bubble and post-bubble trajectories for gold and risk of a deflating housing bubble and effect on GDP tell me that price inflation is not what we should concern ourselves with going forward.
I have bought gold coins between $605 and $680. This is a safety play. They may go way up in dollars and the long term price may go way down. Things are very volitile right now and gold is a safe haven for value - my opinion.
A ten coin container is around 1 1/4" high and 1 1/4 around. A plastic peanut butter jar can hold a bunch of these. You can bury some in your garden, hide some in the freezer (maybe frozen inside some food), stash under the house, put into a safe deposit box - or all of the above. The gold will not get hurt and the coins will still be nice and shiney.
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