This absolutely delicious piece today from the Reuters Real Estate Summit, where the slimy Bob Toll blamed the media, and who knows, maybe he's an HP reader?, for pretty much causing his would-be suckers (buyers) to walk away.
Oh, I can't tell you how much that delights me...
Here's the report from Reuters. Nice time to be having a real estate summit - must have been like being on the Titanic in its last hours...
Cancellation rates among U.S. home buyers are running above last quarter's levels as the housing market slows, the chief executive of luxury home builder Toll Brothers Inc. said on Tuesday.
"I think our cancellations are running higher than on the last call," Robert Toll said at the Reuters Real Estate Summit in New York.
Toll cited a perception among buyers, fueled partly by media coverage of the housing market, that homes are a depreciating asset. He also pointed to the supply of "speculative housing" as well as a national "malaise" caused by last autumn's hurricanes.
But he predicted buyers who sit out the current industry slowdown will regret their decision later, and said cancellation rates were likely to stabilize over the next six months.
"I think you're going to see a very strong housing market again," Toll said.
July 11, 2006
FLASH: Bob Toll: Sense that housing is a depreciating asset causing increase in cancellations
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46 comments:
The guy lives in la-la land.
House is not investment to begin with.
"I think you're going to see a very strong housing market again," Toll said.
So do I after we push through a 20 year housing depression that started in the summer of 2006.
This guy needs to go the way of Ebbers, Lay, Skilling, Kowalski, M. Stewart.... Where the hell is law enforcement? How much stock did he sell and what do he know when he sold?
This guy is in COMPLETE denial! Name one thing, here in Florida, that has appreciated 300% in the last 5 years...Cars? Milk? Clothing? Food? And the best one yet, Gasoline?! Even gas hasn't risen as much as housing!!
*POP* goes the bubble.
Words alone cannot describe the incredible stench that comes from this man.
Doesn't sound like Toll's in denial to me:
1. during a period of time when prices increased 300% and bears sat it out, he was plugging away selling houses to bulls.
2. took a lot of his profits off the table by selling stock.
What do you think was out there, that only an insder could know, and exactly what duty do you think he had and to whom to tell them about it.
Be careful when you start asking for law enforcement to come around, the libel police may come for you.
Seriously, what an ass. I can't believe he's still talking about Katrina...sadly, folks around the US have already put Katrina behind them (except to the extent that it's fueled their wallets thanks to a huge real estate boom down there). Toll needs to get a grip. Sell some more stock Bob.
Right BOB! I am going to regret coming in at the bottom and buying a place for a nice price, in a nice location. Oh NO! I should buy NOW, at the top of the freaking slide!
I am in awe of these people:
lawyers, car salesman, politicians, and now realtors and big rich homebuilders. They do it with such a streight face. If I even tried to come out with whopper like that, I would turn red from embarrassment and bust out laughing at myself. I'm a lousy liar.
Is BT selling stock as fast as he can while proping up the price with stock buybacks? I am not seeing his actions match his words, and I will always take actions over words when looking for the truth.
A lot of people think these HBs stocks should fall much harder than they are. The stock prices are sticky just like the house prices are.
I guess tax cuts DO work. Taste it all you left losers. Go take ECON 101. Laffer Curve is real, supply-side works. G Dubs is the man.
Toll cited a perception among buyers, fueled partly by media coverage of the housing market, that homes are a depreciating asset
DUH, it's about time more people figured this out. Housing is an EXPENSE. Land is an INVESTMENT. Separate the two.
Home sales slowing in North Jersey
Inventories up as state mirrors national trend
Tuesday, July 11, 2006
BY SAM ALI
Star-Ledger Staff
The "For Sale" sign has been up for three months. You've had a handful of showings and open houses. But your four-bedroom colonial in your quaint middle-class suburban neighborhood is just not selling.
In America's cooling housing market, it's a story many home sellers in New Jersey can relate to these days.
Housing activity is slowing across the state, and the inventory of unsold homes is expanding.
"You have this standoff between buyers and sellers who tend to be as much as three-quarters of a year behind the market," said Jonathan Miller of Miller Samuel, a real estate appraisal firm in New York. "Sellers have been trained over the past five years to stick with their prices and be firm, and yet now you have buyers on the other side saying they want a deal."
As of June, the supply of homes on the 12-county northern New Jersey market is 69 percent higher than it was in June 2005, climbing from 23,584 homes to 39,829, according to Jeffrey Otteau of East Brunswick-based Otteau Appraisal Group, who also authors a series of widely followed quarterly market reports on the New Jersey real es tate market.
Middlesex County saw the largest year-over-year surge in inven tory, with the supply of homes on the market climbing 99 percent, to 4,739 homes, from June 2005 to June 2006.
The number of months it would take to sell the existing inventory of active listings at the present sales pace stands at seven months, up from three months a year ago, Ot teau said.
Historically, a 5 1/2-month supply of unsold inventory has been considered a "stable" market.
In the late 1980s, when the residential real estate market last hit the skids, that number ranged from nine months to 24 months.
"Certainly the record home prices achieved in 2005, when coupled with lagging salary increases, rising interest rates and slower population growth, are solid reasons for a market slowdown," Ot teau said.
But the changes that have enveloped the residential real estate market over the past 10 months extend beyond market metrics, he said.
Otteau also believes "the chorus of voices predicting this collapse and the attention they have received from the media" are playing a big role in bringing the housing market to its current state.
"As always, perception becomes reality," he said.
The market currently has a six- month supply of homes priced below $600,000. For homes priced between $600,000 and $1 million, there is a 10-month supply, and for homes priced above $1 million, there is a nearly 13-month supply.
Home-sales volume also is slowing in the state, declining 18 percent through May from one year ago.
In northern New Jersey, the slowdown has been more marked. Comparing the first six months of 2005 with the first six months of this year, sales volume declined 20.9 percent, falling from 3,682 homes in 2005 to 2,911 homes this year, according to the Garden State MLS, a listing database of homes for sale in Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Middlesex and Morris counties.
It's a story that's being played out across the country
Last week, the National Association of Realtors lowered its forecast for home sales in 2006.
In its monthly forecast, the Realtors association said sales of existing homes should fall 6.8 percent, to 6.60 million this year, from the 2005 record of 7.08 million. Sales of new homes should decline 13.4 percent, to 1.11 million, from a record 1.28 million in 2005.
Experts believe the current situation -- fewer home sales and rising inventories -- will continue for the next several years and will ultimately start to hit sellers where it hurts.
As the supply of unsold homes continues to grow, Otteau ex pects some of the increases in home prices that occurred over the past few years will likely be reversed as motivated sellers make a trade-off: lower prices for quicker sales.
Ironically, this may not be good news for home buyers, be cause rising mortgage rates will likely offset any savings derived from lower home prices, he said.
In fact, some home buyers will actually lose purchasing power despite a downward drift in home prices. Thus, buyers should consider whether the current combination of rising mortgage rates, higher inventory levels and sellers willing to negotiate are reasons to buy now rather than wait.
Rates on 30-year mortgages rose to an average 6.79 percent, from 6.78 percent last week, the highest level since May 2002, according to a survey released by mortgage finance company Fred die Mac on Thursday.
"This is fairly consistent with our economic outlook, which continues to forecast that the interest rate for the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage will gradually drift upward but should remain under 7 percent for the year," said Frank Nothaft, Freddie Mac vice president and chief economist. Last week, the Fed raised interest rates by a quarter percentage point for the 17th straight time, from 5 percent to 5.25.
Home sales slowing in North Jersey
Inventories up as state mirrors national trend
We are still in a very strong market.If you hold out and wait, you will see escalating prices again in 2020.
I don't know why anyone buys stock these days. Guys like Toll sell at $70 and who was the buyer? Probably a pension fund. The stock market is just a legal way for the manipulators to rob the small investor, the pension funds and foreigners. Face it, the game is rigged.
skytrekker dates men
Check this out! Toll Brothers received approvals this week for two 50-story, 650+ foot tall condo towers in Phoenix, Arizona. Bobby, what are you smoking?
http://phoenix.gov/ZAGENDAC/zitem12.html
How about that homebuilder K. Hovnanian? I have been watching them build new houses near me and I can hardly beleive how cheap and sloppy the construction is on these homes. I have always heard that Toll builds luxury crap, but these houses k-hov builds are worst than crap.
Bob Toll should take his tent and go camp out on the edge of reality because that's where he's at.
Hey, the religion of peace (pieces) struck again! Get out your tinfoil hat skytrekker and tell us how this is GWB's fault.
Skytrekker is mad becasue he cant marry John
Go Bob Toll keep the Kool Aid flowing there is always a sucker around who will gulp it down.
Oh please! The man is CEO of a huge corporation that builds and sells houses!
Do you actually think he's going to trash-talk his own industry? Pay attention to what he does, not what he says. He sold off a huge chunk of his stock - the man is no fool.
autofx in phx sez:
And so they lose money, and declare that the whole game is rigged as an excuse for themselves.
Oh please, give me a break. The lumpen buy index funds for their retirement accounts. The managers of the index funds use OPM to clean out shorts. Then they take 10% off the top as a bonus. Then they buy stock from their buddies the insider CEOs at the top. Then after the stock goes down they sell too. Excuses? Why would I need excuses? I don't swim with sharks, I don't stick my hand in a meatgrinder and I don't buy stocks from swindlers. Just my two cents.
Skytrekker...do you take this man...
Keith is correct when he say's housing and the state of out economy is all tied togeather, now here is a little read form the people who really know..invest wisely sheeple
http://tinyurl.com/qf358
Al Gore says there is global warming too. Scared?
Al Gore says there is global warming too. Scared?
No I blame bush for that..smart ass
it doesn't exist you tool. What does Mike Moore think?
Global warming most certainly does exist - the question is whether humans are causing or contributing to it. The debate is not whether it exists, that has been proven. I'm not sure why Americans consider it as part of a political debate?????
A surge in tax receipts will trim the size of the federal deficit in the current year, the White House said Tuesday -- a development that President Bush says vindicates his fiscal policies and bolsters the case for making his first-term tax cuts permanent.
"Some in Washington said we had to choose between cutting taxes and cutting deficits. Today's numbers show that was a false choice," Bush said in a speech.
Global warmer may or may not exist. Just as many experts think it exists, as think it does not exist. Remember the fear of global freeze in the 70's??? It has become political because idiot Dems like to say it does exist and then say that Bush doesn't care about the environment; not true. Bush has done more to protect the environment than Clinton did. I personally do not think that global warming is real. I think weather tends to go in cycles, and while we could be in a warming cycle now, we easily could be in a cooling cycle 25 years from now.
You know your party is in tough times when a $296 bil deficit when you are at the top of an expansion is something to gloat about.
Whether the carbon dioxide, and hence the temperature is increasing dramatically due to a normal cycle or not is irrelevant - the planet is still "warming" and the carbon dioxide increasing. Like I said, whether or not man is creating or contributing to it - it is still occurring!!!!! Core samples showing the temperatures go back 650,000 years, meaning the cycle (if that is the cause) is very long and likely very extreme - does it make you feel better that it is due to a cycle??????? whatever!!!!!!!!
And the rest of the world doesn't care if it is "Democrats" or "Republicans" making the case.
deficit as a % of GDP numbnutz. That is the figure that matters. Repubs not introuble. Stupid, bitter, liberal dems...in trouble.
This Bob Toll nonsense is old news. It was on Yahoo Finance about 2 weeks ago. Enter ticker symbol TOL and look at the news headlines.
I personally do not think that global warming is real. I think weather tends to go in cycles, and while we could be in a warming cycle now, we easily could be in a cooling cycle 25 years from now.
Recently I read a bumper sticker that said "If you don't believe in God, you better be right!"
I think the same can be said for those who don't believe that global warming is being caused by humans. If you are wrong 25 years from now, will you just shrug your shoulders and say "Oh well, I guess I was wrong?"
P.S.: I vote Republican about 75% of the time. I am in the finance profession now, but I used to be a chemical engineer. I believe in science, not baseless predictions.
borkafatty should go marry Skytrekker and wear matching Howard Dean shirts.
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