June 16, 2006

When the music stops - KB Homes announces the end of the speculative housing bubble


Builders selling to speculators fueled the fake numbers. Now builders are competing with the very speculators who bought their homes to see who can dump their inventory (without fire sale pricing) the fastest.

The builders will blink first, racing to the price needed to move the inventory. They can absorb the hit as their profit margin is much higher than Billy the Speculator.

But the builders' stocks are sure in for a ride, and we'll see consolidation now in this arena...

We are now operating in a more difficult market environment," KB Chairman and Chief Executive Bruce Karatz said in a statement. "The country's current-year home sales will likely fall well short of the record rates we have seen in the recent past as the market works through inventory build-ups, including a spike in investor/speculator resale inventory, higher interest rates and higher cancellation rates."

New orders during the quarter fell 19 percent to 9,908 chiefly from more prospective buyers canceling their orders.

"These conditions will likely persist at least through the remainder of 2006," Karatz said.

21 comments:

Stuck in so Pa. said...

Now is the time to be buying as many houses as you can get yor hands on

Anonymous said...

That was 2001's agenda.
Now is the time to be loading up on

Homebuilder Puts. Buy as many as you can.

How many homes will builders sell when
Interest Only Loans go away in December of this year and rates are raised 2 more times.

Anonymous said...

I've already made $100,000 on HB puts.

The biggest profits are yet to come.

keith said...

"Now is the time to be buying as many houses as you can get yor hands on"

uh, no, now is the time to be getting as far away from housing as you can. run!

it's time to load up on housing when blood is in the streets, and there's housing revulsion

after the housing panic.

Anonymous said...

I got lots of puts, just wish I bought them today not yesterday... Oh well..

Dogcrap Green said...

that was quit a hair cut you took today...

may tomorrow draw blood

Anonymous said...

Did someone call the bottom on HB stocks today? WTF

Anonymous said...

Hi Dogcrap Green,

Thank you for your malice, I actually bought puts a while ago so there may not be enough blood to satisfy your sick fantasy.

Stuck in so Pa. said...

Jeez, use my I.D., and can't spell to boot! Buy now? Suck on a gun barrel!

Dogcrap Green said...

Yes you called it.

I write a blog called "The Upcoming Housing Boom" out of malice. Just to stick it to all the put buyers.

Anonymous said...

I'm with Dogcrap, (it's me the "banker commod trader guy" again. I just love to hear all these novices trying to trade derivatives. "load up on puts". Nice rally yesterday in HB's as your putz decay each night, betting on chicken-little fantasies that your God Keith tells you are true. How's your gold? You called for gold "revulsion" a few days ago...errrr, not so much bro.

Tom said...

Please tell us which bank you work for so we can be forewarned.

Anonymous said...

why? what have I said this wrong? Keith is simply awful, and you know that.

Anonymous said...

anon 11:57

I wish you the best of luck in your life. May the next real estate boom come as quickly as you and dogcrapgreen think...

Anonymous said...

The one thing I hope Mr. Dogcrap Green will do is write a bunch of puts on HBs for me to buy, and lose all my money on.

Anonymous said...

I dont think a boom will come. But I do think Keith is a poser trader, no-talent clown, who is really a left, socialist, liberal, yet wont admit it.

maverick said...

Hello,
Without much luck, I was searching for blogs about Specialty Services when I happened across yours. It's a cool blog. Evidently you like telling it like it is! I have a really great ebay website that is easy to use that you may like. If you get a chance, check it out www.licensedbrandsclub.com.

Debt Consolidation Refinance said...

Great Blog! I love to see informative sites and active discussion. I have bookmarked this site so I can check in from time to time. If you have a chance check out this site http:\\thehomemortgageguide.com which has alot of valuable info on Mortgage and Divorce Thanks again for the Blog

Anonymous said...

Bloggers

Looking for cleaning contractor at http://doityourselfpro.com/. Well I recomend This Site. Maybe your asking who am I

WHOAMI121 said...

KB HOMES IS NOTHING BUT THIEVES AND LIARS. THEY CHEAT HOMEOWNERS THEY DO NOT PAY SUBCONTRACTORS. I GUESS THAT IS HOW THEY PAY THE CEO'S THESE HIGH SALARIES ON EVERYONE ELSE'S BACK.
SAD THING,THEY SIMPLY GET AWAY WITH IT

Anonymous said...

KB HOMES IS A BUNCH OF LIARS AND THIEVES,THEY CHEAT HOMWOWNERS ON PURPOSE,THEY DO NOT PAY SUBCONTRACTORS AND THE GOVERNMENT LETS THEM GET AWAY WITH IT. GUESS ITS HOW THEY PAY THESE WORTHLESS CEO'S THEIR FAT SALARIES. ON EVERYONE ELSE'S BACK AND AT SACRIFICE OF THE LITTLE GUYS