Nasdaq open on April 10th: 2340
Nasdaq close today: 2072
Down 11.4%
Not bad, not bad, but not a crash (yet). More like a slow fizz. 60 day puts on the QQQQ's would have been the play then though.
Market predictions for Wednesday (Inflation number d-day)?
Here's the original post:
OK, with any bold prediction, you can look the fool when it doesn't happen (the world is ending people, the Cubs will win the world series, etc)But I'll make one now
The stock market is about to crash.
Why?
Housing bubble has popped
Consumer is done
Gold vaults past $600
Failed US Presidency
Iran goes nuts
Iraq mess
Oil getting crazy again
We're due for a good one
Anyone with me, or am I nuts?
June 13, 2006
Sunday April 9th HousingPanic prediction - "The stock market is about to crash"
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62 comments:
Gold vaults past $600
Anyone with me, or am I nuts?
Oh, I think you answer your own question.
All you renters out there sitting in your y2k bunkers playing with your cheap silver coins prattling on about the bubble that you missed make me laugh. Good thing you didn't miss out on the metals bubble!
You called the easy one Keith -
The hard one is when does H5N1 go to level 4?
Nothing more than a momentum play. No bold prediction on your part.
Kieth you always run with the masses.
Learn to think for yourself, or get slaughter.
Good work Keith. . .
It was amazing how many people would not believe that the housing crash will kill the economy. . .denial is great. I am happy to say that reality is spreading in San Dieog. . .I now hear stories about "smart money" sold last year. . .and how there are "10 house for sale on my block." I still don't think most people have a clue that 20% drop is a conservative estimate.
Never mind the gold bubble - the collasp of copper is a real metal a real commodity.
Inflation is ending!!!!
THIS IS MY BOLD ASS PREDICTION
dogcrap - i called for a crash when the market was going UP, not down. that's against the herd
gold I'll admit, even though I started discussing at $430, I didn't buy until $630. Should've sold at $730 when it got too much heat. But just wait - right around the corner is gold revulsion. that's when it's time to get in again - not that I'm gonna though - much better plays out there now. My FAST puts are up 110% in 2 weeks. Gold ain't moving 110% in 2 years.
I'm looking at the lenders and PMI insurance companies as put plays, time for their haircut
Dollar should hold if bennie raises. If he doesn't, trouble.
I'm just trying to preserve capital. I want resources to ride out the bad stuff to come. But asset preservation is getting tough!
I don't see gold going back up and sadly, I don't see asset class that's safer than the U.S. dollar, at least for the time being.
Keith said...
But just wait - right around the corner is gold revulsion.
We're seeing it here and now, on this blog!
-actually, i'm starting to fall in love with gold all over again! those come-hither looks, begging you to take her seriously
we'll date again. just waiting for the right time to ask her out again. it's when ben blinks.
"What if the Fed DOESN'T raise rates on Thursday, because of the outcry on Wall Street and around the world"
All the big players are betting on a hike. It's been priced into the market. I'd go with the 'smart' money on this one, since Bernanke's troubles would only multiply if he didn't follow through.
The real question will be what happens after the hike. Will the Fed go back to the pause rhetoric or will they leave room for more tightening? Pause talk might stop the bleeding for a little while, but the momo is still decidedly downward.
I don't see any reason for a rally. The stock declines aren't merely based on Ben's flapping lips. We've got real trouble, not at some distant point in the future, but right here, right now. Inflation has happened. Equity is declining. Consumers are cutting back. In the reality based community, all signs point to recession. What they tell the little guys may be a different story, but take a look at recent afternoon action in the markets.
It's even more simple than the reasons for the prediction: Excess Liquidity is drying up. This will affect all markets including metals. I am an optimist, and I am now optomistic that there is going to be a lot of pain for a lot of people. Don't be hatin' because I handled my finances responsibly. You had your time to gloat about your huge paper gains while I sat on the sidelines in late 2004-2005. I will not do the same, but I will be buying when everyone else is selling. Does anyone see a better option than 5% money market accounts?
Dogcrap Green
How's that Toll position working for you - you are such a clever contrarian.
Keith...just wanted to say thanks for one of the more interesting blogs in the 'sphere.
Sometimes you are really over the top, but I always find you entertaining. (and frequently your topics are exactly what I've been thinking about)
Great graphics too!
oh..and here's 3 gold price charts; daily, weekly and point & figure, as of today's close:
http://stockcharts.com/gallery/?$GOLD
looks like we should be within $10/oz of a bottom; the sentiment seems to be setting up for it as well; lots of comments like THE GOLD BULL MARKET IS OVER! etc
What if the Fed DOESN'T raise rates on Thursday, because of the outcry on Wall Street and around the world (stock exchanges in other countries are even worse)?
Bernanke made comments that basically said that inflation is worrisome to him.
At least 4 other Fed governors have said they are concerned about inflation in the past couple weeks.
Do you really think all of these people are not going to vote to raise rates at the next meeting?
Yes, my heart is broken (NOT) - I'm only up 60 percent in my CEF from when I bought it last fall. Gold and silver are NOTORIOUS for volatility. You play them long term or you don't play at all. As long as oil is at $70 we have continued inflation for EVERYTHING. As long as we have inflation, gold and silver are the only game in town - volatility or not.
the first two yes. the rest no.
we're are heading for deflation, not inflation.
inflation is too much money chasing too few goods. the consumer is out of money. no more chasing. no more stupid toys needed for the stupid masses. deflation.
Richard, We have been at pandemic level four for several months now.
http://tinyurl.com/gfed7
seriously Keith, what reality do you live in?
Another hundred billion on the credit card and flushed straight down the toilet.
http://tinyurl.com/lawfj
Maybe they won't need medicare
http://tinyurl.com/pubdz
gold may go up, gold may go down, but the dollar's going down.
here's my predicition
-Housing stocks rebound short term.
-Oil gets crushed further. Iran will come to the table (sorry Keith). product builds are big, we have TOO MUCH oil right now in the short term. Oh, btw...we have no weather and it's June 13th in NYC.
-Gold has dead cat bounce, amybe to $600-$620 best, then gets slammed again. Too many of you taking about catching this knife. This is a bubble right now. Just THINK of all the unwinding of length in gold, oil, silver, copper that would happen if/when there are commdotity fund redemptions. It will happen, and it will be ugly. Oil futures are NOT a safe haven.
-US $ will do well short term here with rate hikes, and flight to safety. Bonds too, pushing yields down even more, pushing housing sticks back up a bit...too many shorts there, and story is getting tired.
In summary, NOT what Keith says.
after hours:
Gold, oil, copper, silver all...down Keith. You obviously have no idea how to trade, and no idea how these markets can flush length out.
1 - insurgency still raging in Iraq, Afghanistan
2 - 4 class 3's and 3 class 4's make landfall this hurricane season
3 - Medicare prescription drug program ramps up
4 - Slowing economy causes tax receipts to drop
Equals - $500 billion deficit for fiscal year that starts this october.
Side note - while I haven't been there lately there seems to be a total societal collapse occuring in the west bank and gaza, something tells me this is not good for mid-east stability and calm in the oil markets.
yawn...too much oil.
Hey Tom - maybe level 4 and 5 are phased out as the article said. Yet I think it is still phase 3 "Thus. although WHO has maintained phase 3, their language in updates, and actions signal pandemic evolution well beyond phase 3, and recent comments indicate the level will not be raised until the pandemic has reached the final phase 6."
What a bunch of hooey. Didn't anybody learn anything from Chicken Little?
Gold price $559. Listen to Keith and buy gold everyone.
Come on, lets not beat a dead horse to death, Keith made some good calls and he has made some bad calls. Overall he is probably fairing better than many overpaid Wall St. analysts. And besides, you should not invest money based on some blogger's ramblings, you must think for yourself.
H.P. is the Jerry Springer of housing blogs, its fast pasted, packed full of action, and generally in poor taste. There are even some pretty mean fights from time to time.
You even have some crazy characters on this blog. Take Robert Cote for example, sure half the words he uses are well beyond my vocabulary, but you have to admit, he is quite insightful.
Even the spammers on this blog have personality, take autofx, he's always pitching that get-rich-quick-day-trading foreign currency crap, but you’ve got to love it!
So here's to all the HP regular's, readers and posters alike!
Oh and for the record, I am bullish on the stock market. Get ready for Tech Bubble 2.0 (beta) its coming!
It is not 1987 again-it is much worse. There was still a tech bubble out there; people had savings; China wasn't developing a middle class of sorts that is quickly buying Chinese manufactured products; peak oil is straining the global political situation; global climate change is real and affecting us now, and unfortunately for our children,not much is being done to address this; a corporate controlled media that keeps Americans in the dark; borrowing almost 3 billion a day to keep this whole thing floating; dwindling and arsenic laced well water consumed by billions wordwide as glaciers melt; Alan Greenspan; Ann Coulter: Bill O'Reilly??? 1987 was a good year.
Keith said:
gold I'll admit, even though I started discussing at $430, I didn't buy until $630.
Keith - Gold hasn't seen 430 since last summer, and you didn't even start your blog till right before Christmas...what are you talking about? You started pumping gold in spring 06 when gold was exactly at the price that it is today (560).
I have read your blog for six months...I am amazed how wrong you are all the time. You get in to stocks too early AND too late,, AND you sell too early AND too late. I am talking specifically bout your actions pertaining to homebuilder stocks and GOLD (though the same could be said to your OIL picks and your DJIA pick).
Examples:
Homebuilder Stocks
1. Fall 05 – Keith says to short homebuilder stocks. Homebuilder stocks instead rise. (Keith loses money)
2. Spring 06 – Homebuilder stocks fall back, Keith says take no action because of possible market manipulators and that stocks have already had their “50% haircut”. Homebuilder stocks then plummet (Keith misses opportunity to make money)
3. Current – Homebuilder stocks are a 52 week lows, Keith says time to short Keith outlook tbd
Gold
1. Early Spring 06, Gold starts to rise from 550, Keith says buy, but does not actually buy until 630 Keith misses opportunity to make money
2. Later Spring 06, Gold rises from 630 to 730, Keith is pumpin and pumpin Gold and says he is adding to his Gold weekly at prices ranging from 630 to 730. Keith has opportunity to make money IF he sells at right time
3. Current – Gold plummets from 730 to 560 Keith loses money on any Gold he bought above 630, which from his daily exhortations of seems to be a lot
Keith - just stick to saying "Housing is going down" and I think you will be ok. When you try and pretend you know anything about the stock market.....well, you just look silly.
Hey Thinker - when you start your blog, let us know.......seriously. It will save me time having to come to this blog searching for your writings.
bravo to last poster. Very accurate, as I have been keeping tabs on all of Keith's patterns too. Put all sharp objects away Keith. Wow, you really do suck. Buy tops,sell bottoms, repeat...
Come on people, stop making it hard on yourselves. There are 3 options:
1.Soft Landing(Weak recession)
2.Hard Landing("Normal" recession")
3.Crash(Major Recession)
The fact is, since WWII the US has NOT had a Major recession and only 3 "soft" recessions. While most people consider recessions like 73-75 or 81-82 "major", they weren't. But the series of 3 recessions between 73-83 fatigued the economy down.
Most likely what is to happen, is a "hard landing" or a "normal recession"(in the spirit 48-49,57-58,60-61,73-75,80-82,90-91, of course 80-82 was the worst). The key is what happens after the recession does the economy get corrected and pick up another long expansion or are we going to 73-83 over again with a bunch of moderate recessions clogging the viewscreen. That is the real question.
Gold getting a "dead cat bounce"?
Actually, if anything gets a "dead cat bounce", it will be stocks.
I'm still waiting to see what Ben does with interest rates. If he hikes a half percent, that would be MOST entertaining.
so bernanke will raise another .25 percent this month, but he better draft and redraft, proofread and spellcheck that damn statement that goes along with it. If there is one wrong syllable in that statement there will be bubbles bursting all over the place, including the bubble known as the world economy.
Is a major recession when more than half the population saw no (or negative) real income growth since the last recession? if so then this will be a "Major" recession
Major recessions are when you have 10% or more of your economy contract. The wage problem doesn't deal with that. It may lead to a "Major Recession", but I doubt it. Major recessions also lead to 15% unemployment type numbers.
The last major recessions were 29-33, 1893-96, 1873-78.
Chicken Little hit it right on the head......Keith is a wonderful blogger but a terrible stock picker.
He claims he called the stock market crash......here's a guess on what Keith did.
4/9/06 - Keith bets that the stock market is going to crash, and backs up his bet by shorting DIA. The Dow is at 11,120.
4/27/06 - Dow is at 11,382, Keith adds to his short position, thinking that there is no way the stock market can go down
5/9/06 - Dow is at 11,639. Keith gets out of his DIA short in order to add to his Gold position which he has been accumulating since Gold passed 630. Gold is at 700, soon to hit 730.
Today - Dow is at 10,706. Keith is shorting DIA.
Like the other guys said.......Keith buys too soon and too late, and sells too soon and too late.
peace
Had an intereseting conversation with a member of the NRP who says he's done with the party and will vote 3rd party. However, what he said is this: In the past when there was "bad news," i.e., wars, etc...investors would panic and pull out of the stick market. Yet in the last few years this hasn't been hte case. World events have little effect on the stock market. He suspects its the government pulling the strings to keep things in check; there isn't a "free market" environment anymore. And as for the housing market, yes it will crash on the simple principle of supply and demand. Anderson business professors have been warning us of this for the last few years. And that Harvard report, more evidence that GW and his cronies are controlling not only mainstream media.....alot is going on behind the scenes.
I predict this year will usher in the "Universal Mortgage".
1) There will be no fixed maturity, but monthly or biweekly payments will be debited from a checking account. All payments must be electronic.
2) There will be no fixed payment amount. Instead borrowers will decide how much (or little) they want to pay.
3) The federal government will guarantee 80% of the mortgage value against default.
The Dems will take Congress in November and it will be the centerpiece of their economic recovery plan. No housing crash, but the dollar will tank and prices for oil and gold/silver will soar.
You even have some crazy characters on this blog. Take Robert Cote for example, sure half the words he uses are well beyond my vocabulary, but you have to admit, he is quite insightful.
Uhhhh, thanks. I think.
never shorted dia
my COP is up over 100%
The homebuilders have crashed over 50%
Gold roared from mid 400's to over 700 on my watch
And there seem to be a lot of haters on the blog - unemployed realtors?
you are a liar:
COP down 19% in 6 weeks (you are wearing it)
Gold: you got in @ 630, rode it up, got stopped out.
Homebuilders: you have been chickenshit to shorth them this spring due to "mainupulation" because they rallied late fall.
POSER
BTW, I actually trade commods for a living at a bank. Bring it biatch.
I got into CEF at 7.70 and bailed at 10.70. That was a nice run. Gold is looking like it is wanting to rebound from the brief exploration into the mid 500's. I may be buying more coins today if I can get them for $589-$590. My average basis is $665 on the coins I have (there is around a $40 premium on coins around here).
As for the market, I think the shorts are in control. They believe that BB will raise again, maybe by 1/2 point. There will be a lot more foriegners mad at the USA after that when their family investments are down. The world is "blaming" the US. Will this give more ammo to popular sentiment to get out of dollars or will it bolster the dollar as the currency of choice? Since we have become a nation of borrowers in other's eyes, and internally our population is going broke, how will that affect international sentiment on continueing to lend us money by buying our debt?
I read yesterday that Mexico tried an auction of treasury bills. The bid was around 8 1/2% and the gov't wanted to sell around 5%, so there was no deal.
Market is up today. What a bunch of propped up bs with inflation running at 4%+. Wonder what idiots are buying any stock today. A total dead cat bounce if I have ever seen one.
Oh for God's sake people...get a life.
ANYONE who makes any predictions of any sort will be right sometimes and wrong others.
Predictions are just a statement of a best guess at the moment.
Nit picking Keith for some of his predictions being wrong is just stupid. What do you expect?
Everyone here can and should predict what they think will happen, as long as you have some rational reason for thinking it.
in the end...THINK FOR YOURSELF!
duh..
"Oh for God's sake people...get a life. "
we pick on Keith due to his extreme arrogance, and the fact that he is really really bad a trading...deal with it!
Just as I predicted:
"Core consumer prices have advanced at an annual rate of 2.9 percent in the past six months and a steep 3.8 percent in the past three months. Both of those gauges accelerated over the past month, with the burst in core prices over the past three months the most severe in more than 10 years.
...
The Labor Department said rising shelter costs accounted for over half of the monthly advance in core prices.
Shelter costs, which strip out utility and furniture prices, rose 0.4 percent last month. That gain reflected a 0.6 percent jump in a rental-based measure of the cost of owner-occupied housing. It was the largest increase in so-called owners' equivalent rent since August 1990."
Yup. All the house prices going INSANE over years didn't register a blip in the 'official' CPI---and now when we are entering a clear housing bust---guess what, the 'Imputed rental income' now starts to rise.
The cause is entirely statistical flim-flam, because the bureau and fed STOPPED using actual housing prices in the mid 1990's.
So---as people jump into overpriced homes and leave rentals, sure enough rental incomes decine as house prices skyrocket. But this doesn't show up as 'inflation' in their short-sighted ideas.
Now, as people are finally starting to be priced out of housing, and as bubble sitters wait for the housing crash, *NOW* they pinheads start seeing inflation, and crank up interest rates even more.
Look again: highest increase in rents since Aug 1990. Guess what happened in Aug 1990? That was the start of the collapse of the PREVIOUS housing boom.
The rest is predictable: as rates cough up more people out of homeownership and into rentals, voluntarily or involuntarily, rental prices will go up and stupid Fed will see even more inflation which isn't there.
They should have been looking at actual housing prices paid by people whether for owned property or rental and we would have raised rates years ago. But then Greenspan might have not been so popular with Republicans in 2004.
I am a bubble sitter renter and my rent is $750.00 per month, in an area where the same POS would sell for $270,000.00. My lease is up in Oct and guess what, my landlord just took out a HELOC and I am sure he will up grade and raise the rent. I am outtahere (prediction, not my choice), so I am looking around. Same rent now vs last year, $1,200.00 for a POS.
Prediction: NAZ to rise 3-4% between today and mid August with a decreasing level of hawkishness from the fed,
and then plunge 18% by November as inflation data comes in and the magnitude of the housing crash becomes clear.
POINT OF ORDER.....
DIFFERENCE OF NOW AND THEN...
FOREIGN NATIONS HAVE NEVER DISCUSSED DIVERSIFICATION OUT OF THE DOLLAR...UNTIL NOW!!!!
"THE BEAR IN THE WOODS" THAT HAUNTED US DURING THE COLD WAR IS ABOUT TO HAUNT US AGAIN IN THE RESOURCE/GLOBAL FINANCE WARS. THE MIGHTY RUSSIAN BEAR IS EMERGING AS A FINANCIAL LEVIATHAN; OUT OF DEBT,GIVING THE IMF THE MIDDLE FINGER AND BACKING UP ITS RUBLE IN GOLD.
PUTIN IS COMING ACROSS AS CAPITALIST/AUTHORITARIAN VERSION OF LENIN...SMASHING FOREIGN AND PRIVATE CONTROL OF RUSSIAN OIL TO A THOUSAND PIECES AND SHIPPING ENABLING RUSSIAN EXECS TO SIBERIAN LABOR CAMPS.
WHEN ASKED ABOUT "OUTSOURCING," PUTIN SAID THAT RUSSIA WOULD NEVER "OUTSOURCE" CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE OCCUPATIONS AND IF ANY RUSSIAN CORP. DID SO, ITS EXECS WOULD DO TIME IN SIBERIAN LABOR CAMPS.
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